Author Topic: Top 20 Prospect List  (Read 8224 times)

Duman

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Top 20 Prospect List
« on: September 19, 2008, 07:47:18 am »
The list are starting to roll out.  The first that impacts the Astros' farm system is the BA Appy League top 20.  The Greeneville Astros placed 3 players on the roll. 

RHP Jordan Lyles (7)
CF Jay Austin (12)
C Frederico Hernandez (18)
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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2008, 09:12:19 am »
The list are starting to roll out.  The first that impacts the Astros' farm system is the BA Appy League top 20.  The Greeneville Astros placed 3 players on the roll. 

RHP Jordan Lyles (7)
CF Jay Austin (12)
C Frederico Hernandez (18)
I saw this and was surprised by a couple of things ...

The inclusion of Hernandez.  Not having seen any of the games, I did not realize that he was heads-and-shoulders above Gonzalez (who was bumped to T-C late in the season) or even Mojica, much less the class of the league.  Can you (or someone) provide some first-hand scouting info?

The exclusion of Greenwalt.  I'm not surprised Lyles was ahead of him, but Kyle seemed (from the distance of the internet) to be putting together a solid second season.  Comments?
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Duman

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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2008, 10:59:02 am »
I saw this and was surprised by a couple of things ...

The inclusion of Hernandez.  Not having seen any of the games, I did not realize that he was heads-and-shoulders above Gonzalez (who was bumped to T-C late in the season) or even Mojica, much less the class of the league.  Can you (or someone) provide some first-hand scouting info?

The exclusion of Greenwalt.  I'm not surprised Lyles was ahead of him, but Kyle seemed (from the distance of the internet) to be putting together a solid second season.  Comments?

Hernandez (20) was my favorite of the three catchers who saw significant time.  Has a good flat throw that tends to tail towards the right field side of the bag.  Very mobile behind the plate.  Caught many foul pops. Quick reaction times. Bat got better as season went along.  His inclusion on the list was a pleasant surprise.  Many of the catchers this year were older, so that may have factored into him being seen as a better prospect.

P. Gonzalez (almost 22) made every ball in the dirt look like the #1 play on sports center.  Overly dramatic and didn't show the bat improvement from year one to year two. 

Mojica (20) spent most of his time in the bullpen.  Biggest of the 3 but showed no pop in his bat.  K'd one out of every 3 times.

Greenwalt (recently turned 20) showed significant improvement from year one to year two.  I think his age is one factor and that he is pretty much a two pitch pitcher.  Fastball (upper 80's) and change up.  If he had to throw his curve much, he is in trouble.

Austin (just turned 18) was a bit of surprise due to his struggles with the bat but he does play a very good center and he is very young which BA appears to value since they are looking at projectability.

There were just 4 players on the BA top 20 that were also on the post season All Star team. 

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Russe

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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2008, 11:14:34 am »
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2008/266878.html

Jason Castro took the top spot on BA's NY-Penn League list, but he's the only Astro on there. I'm bit surprised to see Shuck left off, but I'll try to ask about about him when they do the chat.

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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2008, 11:24:31 am »
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2008/266878.html

Jason Castro took the top spot on BA's NY-Penn League list, but he's the only Astro on there. I'm bit surprised to see Shuck left off, but I'll try to ask about about him when they do the chat.

Only 1 outfielder on the list.  Fedroff hit well in about 100 at-bats.  They must see a lot of projection to put him there.  Shuck had almost 3x the at-bats as Fedroff and was his equal or better offensively.  I don't know how good a defender Fedroff is but Shuck is a CF long-term with very good speed and defensive skill.  They must not like Shuck's slappy style at the plate even though he's a leadoff type hitter or see no projection in him at all.  If any of you ever saw Brett Butler bat, Shuck is his second-coming.
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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2008, 02:17:13 pm »
Aaron Fitt just mentioned Shuck and Disher in the live chat. Says Disher lacks a position and he's not sure the bat is strong enough to make him a major-league DH. Fitt compares Shuck to Sam Fuld and says "he definitely has a chance." Fitt likes his speed, contact, and plate discipline, but says he just doesn't have any outstanding tools.

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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2008, 02:49:42 pm »
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2008/266878.html

Jason Castro took the top spot on BA's NY-Penn League list, but he's the only Astro on there. I'm bit surprised to see Shuck left off, but I'll try to ask about about him when they do the chat.

Impossible - BP swears that Castro was a wasted first-round pick.
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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2008, 01:25:25 pm »
The Sally League was today's top 20. Unsurprisingly, no one from Lexington made the list, but here's what Bill Ballew had to say about the Legends when asked in the chat:

"Lexington's difficulties were in many ways the poster child of the Astros' problems with their farm system. Pellegrini received the most attention from scouts. He didn't hit for average but showed good power before tiring late in the season. Abad and Cespedes received only modest attention, but Craig Corrado and Eric Taylor garnered some positive mentions. Corrado did a good job of moving to 2b from SS after having some throwing issues at 3B. Taylor is a UCLA product who has the ability to be a good hitter if he irons out some of the mechanical issues in his swing."

ETA: He also just called Max Sapp one of the biggest disappointments of the league. There's an understatement...
« Last Edit: September 24, 2008, 01:34:08 pm by Russe »

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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2008, 02:38:19 pm »
The Sally League was today's top 20. Unsurprisingly, no one from Lexington made the list, but here's what Bill Ballew had to say about the Legends when asked in the chat:

"Lexington's difficulties were in many ways the poster child of the Astros' problems with their farm system. Pellegrini received the most attention from scouts. He didn't hit for average but showed good power before tiring late in the season. Abad and Cespedes received only modest attention, but Craig Corrado and Eric Taylor garnered some positive mentions. Corrado did a good job of moving to 2b from SS after having some throwing issues at 3B. Taylor is a UCLA product who has the ability to be a good hitter if he irons out some of the mechanical issues in his swing."

ETA: He also just called Max Sapp one of the biggest disappointments of the league. There's an understatement...

My 1/2 penny:

There's a notion in the back of my mind that Sapp will get cut this winter.  I have no proof of that.  Of the pitchers Cespedes reminds me of Ronnie Martinez.  Successful at the lower levels but his fastball sits in the mid- to upper-80's and his off-speed stuff is good enough to fool young hitters but doesn't project to the majors.  Abad has a higher ceiling.  Also, Icenogle is another lefty who can hit the low-90's and may be a bullpen candidate down the road.  Of the position players Corrado stands out a little because he looks like a possible utility player in the making though he's more likely a career minor leaguer.  I don't think anyone else really projects past AA or AAA.
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Duman

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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2008, 02:49:04 pm »
Here is what we think we know about catcher for next year in Lex or Lancaster:

Castro - depending on how he handles HWL will determine whether he starts at Lex or Lancaster.
Fixler - Would be suited for Lancaster
Clemens - Probably Lancaster, maybe CC
F. Hernandez - Probably headed to Lex, maybe TC
R. Pestana - Lex if he doesn't get cut.

Sapp is the odd man out here.  I only see him coming back if they try to make him a 1st baseman but his bat is bad.  This is the equivalent of being a 3rd year college player and he has not shown improvement.  Plus you have Disher who should be in Lex to play 1st next year.  I agree with Jacksonian.  I bet they will try to trade him for a roster filler (see Henriquez, Ralphie) or cut him if they can't do that.
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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2008, 03:05:17 pm »
ETA: He also just called Max Sapp one of the biggest disappointments of the league. There's an understatement...

In every sense of the phrase.
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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2008, 05:06:50 pm »
Here is what we think we know about catcher for next year in Lex or Lancaster:

Castro - depending on how he handles HWL will determine whether he starts at Lex or Lancaster.
Fixler - Would be suited for Lancaster
Clemens - Probably Lancaster, maybe CC
F. Hernandez - Probably headed to Lex, maybe TC
R. Pestana - Lex if he doesn't get cut.

Sapp is the odd man out here.  I only see him coming back if they try to make him a 1st baseman but his bat is bad.  This is the equivalent of being a 3rd year college player and he has not shown improvement.  Plus you have Disher who should be in Lex to play 1st next year.  I agree with Jacksonian.  I bet they will try to trade him for a roster filler (see Henriquez, Ralphie) or cut him if they can't do that.

I think they have to push Koby to AA.  He showed decent improvement with the bat and he is not getting any younger.  Also, I do not think Lopez & Santangelo are likely to both be in AA next year.  One of those will probably be the backup in AA and the other either bumped to AAA or cut.

Unless Castro bombs out in Hawaii, I would expect him to split duty with Fixler in Lancaster.  Either could also DH and Fixler could see some time at 1B if they both need more AB's.  The other option (if Castro ends up in Lex) would be Carkeek (who could be the backup or 3rd catcher anywhere) and/or Goethals (as 3rd catcher/coach?).

I expect Henson will be in Lex (where he finished the year) and joined by either (or maybe both) of Hernandez & Pestana.  I also agree that if Pestana does not get assigned to Lex, he will probably be cut.  I don't see him hanging around EST until SS starts.  I also doubt they will carry three catchers, but given that Pestana has seen some duty at 1B, that might be an option.

Disclaimer ... This is based on what *I* might do and not on any real sources of information.
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Russe

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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #12 on: September 24, 2008, 05:16:13 pm »
I have a hard time imagining Sapp gets cut. For as bad as he's been, he's still just 20...not that he's got a good chance to put it all together, but is a chance. I wouldn't be surprised to him converted 1B and then given another shot at the Sally League. I think the fact that he was a first-rounder gets him at least one more year.

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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #13 on: September 24, 2008, 07:05:03 pm »
I think the fact that he was a first-rounder gets him at least one more year.

First-rounder under the old regime. I don't think that will count for as much as it usually would; in fact, it might almost work to his disadvantage.
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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2008, 07:51:56 pm »
I think they have to push Koby to AA.  He showed decent improvement with the bat and he is not getting any younger. 

That was my feeling too until I saw the Lancaster local coverage of the Houston affiliate and Bennett was talking up Clemens as a name.  He will turn 22 in December.  Much younger than many others who make their debut at AA.  Would be drafted as a college senior this year had he gone to Texas and stayed.
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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #15 on: September 26, 2008, 10:59:49 am »
Carolina League was up today, and again, no one in the top 20. I figured I ask about about Parraz during the chat...anyone else people are curious about?

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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #16 on: September 26, 2008, 11:06:20 am »
Carolina League was up today, and again, no one in the top 20. I figured I ask about about Parraz during the chat...anyone else people are curious about?

What did they think of Clemens behind the plate?  Did he really improve much at the plate as the numbers indicate?

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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #17 on: September 26, 2008, 11:45:06 am »
What did they think of Clemens behind the plate?  Did he really improve much at the plate as the numbers indicate?

Thanks Russe!
Yeah.  What he said.  If the improvement was stat-only, that might explain the hints that KC will repeat high-A next year.
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Russe

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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #18 on: September 26, 2008, 03:48:30 pm »
Well, my question did not get answered. However, he did mention Koby. He said that scouts were disappointed in his inconsistency at the plate, and he didn't mention his defense. Considering he put together a pretty decent season at the plate, this confused me a bit, but maybe one of you guys can enlighten me.

Duman

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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #19 on: September 26, 2008, 03:58:49 pm »
Well, my question did not get answered. However, he did mention Koby. He said that scouts were disappointed in his inconsistency at the plate, and he didn't mention his defense. Considering he put together a pretty decent season at the plate, this confused me a bit, but maybe one of you guys can enlighten me.

Glad to enlighten:

April .305
May .310
June .216
July .257
Aug .265

This is why the Astros liked the Carolina league.  You have to adjust because with only 8 teams, you have to adjust because they see you alot.  It looks like he wasn't able to make adjustments.    Although I also wonder about the impact of catching for the first time and for a full year had on fatigue. 

Thanks for asking the question.
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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #20 on: September 27, 2008, 11:06:42 am »
I wonder if studies have ever been done on month-to-month offensive consistency by position. I'd imagine catchers' offense tends to fade more in the 2nd half than any other position by far.
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Russe

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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #21 on: September 29, 2008, 07:01:11 pm »
Glad to enlighten:

April .305
May .310
June .216
July .257
Aug .265

This is why the Astros liked the Carolina league.  You have to adjust because with only 8 teams, you have to adjust because they see you alot.  It looks like he wasn't able to make adjustments.    Although I also wonder about the impact of catching for the first time and for a full year had on fatigue. 

Thanks for asking the question.

I guess I look at that differently. That fact that his average dipped in June shows that pitchers figured him out. That fact that his average rose in July and August would seem to say that he was able to adjust and improve (albeit, slightly) after that. But I could be wrong.

Also, no need to thank me for asking questions, but you're welcome all the same.

Two other points of interest: I know someone made the comment about BP hating the Castro pick, but the guy that did BA's NYP League chat (I forgot who its was) was really high on Castro. Said he was a fairly safe bet to be an above-average big leaguer/occaisional all-star. I thought that was interesting since they did not exactly rave about the pick at the time.

Secondly, Drew Stubbs ranked 17th on the Florida League top 20 today. I thought that was interesting, especially since Jordan Parraz outperformed him in pretty much every category. Granted, the rankings aren't just based on performance, but Parraz has the same skill set (and is almost exactly the same age) and he didn't show up on the Carolina League top 20. Now Stubbs' performance after he was promoted was probably a factor, but I wonder if it's just another example of the Astros' farm system being unfairly maligned by the baseball press.

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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #22 on: September 29, 2008, 07:27:52 pm »
This was Parraz's 5th pro season, and has yet to crack AA while Stubbs bolted up to AAA in his second season of pro ball has a great deal to do with it. 
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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #23 on: September 30, 2008, 09:43:54 pm »
Quote
This was Parraz's 5th pro season, and has yet to crack AA while Stubbs bolted up to AAA in his second season of pro ball has a great deal to do with it. 

Parraz spending the whole season in Salem and getting snubbed in the League top 20 prospects, is something I didn't understand.

I guess I am a little tainted since Parraz played for my home team, but I watched the OF'ers in the Carolina League this year, and i am telling you, Parraz was one of, if not the best defensive OF in the League. He covers more ground than most, he has a cannon arm and is accurate, didn't make errors, and had an above average year at the plate with a few stolen bases. His power numbers were down a bit because of batting lead off a lot, plus there are not a lot of homeruns hit in Salem due to a large/deep outfield wall.

It seems like there is some thing to Parraz I don't know or just don't see.

I always thought Josh Anderson didn't get a far chance either. Of course I only saw him at High "A", but he was impressive here.

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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #24 on: September 30, 2008, 09:53:03 pm »
Quote
However, he did mention Koby. He said that scouts were disappointed in his inconsistency at the plate, and he didn't mention his defense. Considering he put together a pretty decent season at the plate, this confused me a bit, but maybe one of you guys can enlighten me

The joke in my section at Salem by the end of the season was, when ever a catcher missed a ball, someone would say "Catch the ball Koby".

I know he was new to the position, but the fact is, even by the end of the season he still had 7 or 8 pitches a game get by him. They were not always his fault, and some were with no runners on base so they wouldn't show up in the stats, and some were ruled as passed balls, but he still struggled at the end, and then the bar fight. Court is scheduled for December.

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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #25 on: October 02, 2008, 10:14:50 am »
The Texas League's top 20 is up today. Chris Johnson snuck in at #20, making him the only Astros prospect on the list. I should be able to participate in the chat today, so are there any specific questions anyone wants answered?

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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #26 on: October 02, 2008, 05:16:29 pm »
Notes from the chat w/ Kary Booher:

Bogusevic would have made the lower part of the list if had he had enough ABs. Said that the transition was impressive. Booher said his athleticism and his eye at at the plate were two things that really stood out. Wants to see how he'll do once he gets into "outfield shape."

Norris got some consideration but the injuries kept him from making the list. Booher liked his stuff and said she sees him continuing to move up.

Drew Sutton's performance was great and he was "on the list of guys to consider," but his age kept him off the list.

Booher said Einertson is still an Astros Top 30 guy after this year. Said the performance was alright but needs to work on the strikeouts.

As for Johnson, here's Booher's take: "As for Johnson, I can see him, given the Astros' current climate, reaching the big leagues as a regular and being given a chance to stick. Defensively, while he might have a thick lower half, he has a strong arm, and it was probably the strongest of any Texas League infielder this year. Hitting-wise, he had to overcome a slow start, so that makes his offensive numbers all the more impressive when you comb through the splits. I had one observer tell me that Drew Sutton preferred hitting in front of him rather than after, a very nice compliment from an older and very good player."

My quick take: Booher seemed more bullish than most regarding the CC crop this year, at least those mentioned. I'll be very interested to see how Sutton, Johnson, Bogusevic, and Norris do in the AFL this year.


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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #27 on: October 02, 2008, 05:49:20 pm »
Good stuff Russe.
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Duman

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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #28 on: October 08, 2008, 07:51:48 am »
In the indy top list, they split it into 2 top 10s. First 10 were those who were unsigned at the end of the season.  No one of note there for us.

The second 10 list included players signed to contracts during the season.  J.T. (Jack) Tilghman was #8 on that list.  Here is what they say about Tilghman:

Quote
If you're looking for a raw prospect who could flame out in Class A or turn into a major leaguer, feast your eyes on Tilghman, indy ball's answer to Nuke Laloosh. ...Tilghman has the arm strength to be a major league reliever, but he'll need to improve his command, develop his secondary stuff and most importantly prove that he has the makeup to make it as a pro.

ETA: Former Astro farm hand Beau Torbert made the 2nd team all indy all star team as an outfielder.  He has since signed with the Tigers.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2008, 08:01:33 am by Duman »
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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #29 on: December 04, 2008, 10:49:47 am »
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=1815

The AFL top 20 is up...Norris comes in #6, which is higher than I expected. I'm a little surprised to see Bogusevic left off the list, though.

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Re: Top 20 Prospect List
« Reply #30 on: December 04, 2008, 12:07:31 pm »
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=1815

The AFL top 20 is up...Norris comes in #6, which is higher than I expected. I'm a little surprised to see Bogusevic left off the list, though.

Age and lack of power demonstrated.
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