I just heard that a new model has Ike coming up Galveston Bay as a Cat 4. Das, any info on this? No link, just a posting on Horn Fans discussing the possibility of the UT vs. Arkie game being postponed.
If he goes as far north as Galviston, he won't be a Cat.4 storm. The waters (and upper level atmosphere) don't support a storm of that strength. If I had to bet, I'd say it will landfall closer to Corpus Christi or a shade north. That said, Ike is a very large storm with hurricane force winds extending 80mi. in each direction and TS force winds over 200mi. in each direction from the eye so focusing on the specific landfall location is unwise.
Beyond 48 hours, it's still really murkey as there are two short-wave troughs to contend with. One just exiting the eastern seaboard right now. It did not pick up Ike so he will bend left of his current NW track sometime in the next 12 hours. The 2nd, a digging trough that will emerge out of the Rockies in a few days will determine the course Fri and beyond. Models are split right now but I like the ones (UKMET and ECMWF) that have this trough grabbing Ike and starting recurvature up into Arklatex just after landfall Saturday morning.
Big, bad storm. He'll get nasty before he calms down a bit (hopefully) prior to landfall. Be careful, Texas.