Author Topic: The end is near, give up all hope!  (Read 4494 times)

Noe

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The end is near, give up all hope!
« on: July 08, 2008, 05:35:34 pm »
One of the by-products of a fairly obvious bad baseball stretch by the local nine is the equally fair amount of hand wringing and doom and gloom about the future that comes from all fronts in terms of the organization as a whole.  Is it fair?  I dunno, I'm not the person to say whether it is or not, but it is pretty much SOP when it comes to bad baseball by the Houston Astros.  Heck, even in their best years, including 1998, I'm sure there were days of saying that the team was doomed and would never recover.  Or at least take a very long time to recover from bad baseball.

Want an example?

In 1999 Mike Hampton made it clear that he was not going to be long as an Astro.  He made some odd comments about reasons he wanted to leave, so the rumors started to fly.  What happened after Hampton left was the Houston Astros went into a tailspin of a season in 2000, followed by the appearance of said Mr. Hampton in the World Series.  Doom and gloom prognostication happened soon afterwards.  I remember 2000, the Lima meltdowns, the injuries to key players, the signs of Dierker starting to lose his mind and the constant appearances of Joe Slusarski, that year's best and only pitcher it seemed.  The Astros are old.  The Astros have nothing in the farm system.  The Astros are cheap that they can't keep a guy like Hampton around.  Hey, let's look at that last statement for a second.  Didn't Hampton sign for over 100 million dollars in Colorado and for something like eight years?  Sound investment, huh Mr. Barry Zito?  We'll come back to this point in a minute.  I remember the drones about the bad Astros organization, the first time someone called the owner "Uncle Drayton" and how bad the Houston minor league system was.  That last part came by way of Mike Hampton who said he liked the Colorado organization because they had better prospects coming up than anybody else.  A radio talk show personality at the time said that Hampton was right.  I called to challenge said personality (who now speaks of fringe prospects as those who the Astros should call up immediately because they are far better than any major league veteran on the team).  "Have you seen Roy Oswalt pitch yet?" was my lead in, to which he replied "He's an A-Ball pitcher who lucked into getting a AA gig and he's at least five years away from being a help to this team!".  That year Oswalt pitched in the Olympics and the following year spent two months in AAA before being called up by Dierker and Hunsicker.  Then came others and finally an award for the team for having the best minor league system in the majors.  This was the systems that was supposedly inferior to Colorado because Mike Hampton said so.  Go figure.

Be that as it may, the whole idea of walking through this tough time is that it is never as bad as it looks (and it looks real bad, trust me) and of course conversely when the team is going well, it probably is never as great as it looks.  See: Rockies, Colorado 2007 and now in 2008 as an example of "not looking as great".  But that is just what happens though, the doom and gloom and all the bad vibes started to mount up and *boom*, someone gets fired or booed and then fired.  Good times!

So what is the way to look at this whole thing with the Houston organization?  Well, for one, it's baseball... plain and simple.  Do you like watching baseball?  Even when it's something that resembles a pee-wee team versus a Major League juggernaut?  Come on, you didn't enjoy the New York Yankees coming into town and blasting the locals to bits and pieces on the last day of the series?  I'll tell Pam Gardner you disapprove, that should make her day.  So any way, it is indeed baseball and for that, I am grateful and feel very blessed that I can follow a team that I personally like.  "Loser!", I'm sure that crossed the mind of a few reading this.  So be it, call me whatever your little black heart desires, that is your paradigm to live by, not mine.  I take comfort in knowing that perhaps being a winner is probably a foreign concept to you as well if you think it's all about W/L, nay... all about winning the World Series else the whole season is a bust.

I was asked though in the Spikes and Stars radio segment a few weeks back if any fan or media had *anything* to look forward to in terms of the improvement in the near future.  Or at least, was there a semblance of hope we'd be watching more competitive baseball in the future?  I gave my answer but realized it may of sounded a bit too simplistic and somewhat negative and that was not my intention.  So here I sit and ponder that what really is it we're looking at when it comes to a Drayton McLane house of fun and winning?  Well, I think that the reality is that first Houston fans and media need to grow up a little bit.  Perhaps more than a little bit, perhaps like... ahum... a lot!  So is that on the Astros or McLane to provide, some sort of "grow me up" pill?  I. Don't. Think. So.  So what does it mean to grow up in terms of baseball?  Go ask a Boston RedSox fan or a Cub fan or even any other fan of baseball that lives (and also dies) with the team but comes back for more simply because 1) it's baseball and 2) it's my team.  So you hand over the bills to McLane in an ignorant manner and let him Snidely Whiplash his way to the bank with your hard earned cayshe?  Well, is McLane really Snidely Whiplash?  I don't think so either.  Far from it.  And therein lies your hope, if you dare to see it.

"Players, Young Ones, How much?"

First and foremost the big mantra right now is the lack of a minor league system that is producing competent major leaguers.  There is some fault to be placed on the head of McLane and his directions to the baseball people.  But also one has to remember that McLane was trying to build a World Series winner with the likes of well loved and admired players such as Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio, two veteran leaders.  Is he at fault for trying to build around those two with other veteran acquires and perhaps losing out in terms of prospects because of it?  I say no, he's not at fault.  Freddy Garcia, Guillen, Halama, Henriquez, Castro were just a few of the names of prospects used to acquires the likes of Randy Johnson, Jay Powell and Moises Alou early on.  Hunsicker decried having to take his farm system to such thinning lengths and warned he could not keep doing this for the team, so he tried to fill some of the needs on the team using fringe acquires like Carl Everett, Jose Lima and others to fill out the team and build around Bagwell/Biggio.  Still the whole idea for McLane is to build the team that would win centered around Bagwell/Biggio and make this city proud.  And he was villanized for it?  He later spent the money for Jeff Kent, Carlos Lee, tried to spend on Carlos Beltran, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens while still trying to get that ring on his team's fingers that included the now aging duo of superstars.  They got close.

Hunsicker in the mean time scurried to keep a semblance of good young talent to keep coming through the pipeline and he struck gold with a couple of them: Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt, go ahead and throw in Brad Lidge while you're at it too.  Nicely done, eh?  Of course, Hunsicker is also the one who tried to wedge in Wade Miller, Mitch Melusky, Tim Redding, Daryle Ward, Carlos Hernandez, Wilfredo Rodriquez, Kirk Saarloos, Chad Qualls (the inconsistent one) and others but did not realize the same results.  Does anyone remember when the team was supposed to have a rotation manned by the likes of Miller, Oswalt, Redding, Hernandez and Rodriquez?  We all thought they were set for the next decade with such talented young arms, eh?  Also Hunsicker was also responsible for the failed drafting of such guys as Derrick Grisby and Robert Stiehl.  But you know, at least Hunsicker produced Berkman and Oswalt!  Oh yeah, and Morgan Ensberg, Jason Lane and Chris Burke too!  Guys who should be major league starters now and young veterans, except they forgot to do one thing: perform at the major league level.

See here is the rub, had Ensberg performed at his potential dicated, would the Astros need to trade for Ty Wiggington?  Had Chris Burke done the job a #10 draft pick will usually do, would we be talking about McLane spending money on Kaz Matsui right now?  Had Jason Lane been the player they thought he'd be, would Carlos Lee had been a spend for McLane, perhaps opting instead to spend on a top of the line pitcher?  So just because you have good young talent, they have to perform consistently in the major leagues and Houston had just some guys who plain failed (and they were Hunsicker's group too!).  So do I blame McLane for wanting to continue to spend money on players that are veterans to keep the turnstiles turning?  No, he knows if he plugs some holes with some nice players, he has a chance.  But when it backfires on you, it really can get ugly quick... see today's version of the Houston Astros.  The neglect of the farm system has left McLane no choice but to continue to search for the player or pitchers he needs to be a competitive team and key the attendance going upwards.  See, the Astros media and fans are not sophisticated enough to know differently so they'll buy it until it goes south quickly, at which point you get what you get now... a ton of bitching and moaning about the lack of a minor league system and of course McLane did not spend *enough*!   Yeah, like had he spent a ton of cayshe for Barry Zito the Astros would be.... oh wait, we're not allowed to name FA mega-dollar bust!  We're only allowed to talk about successful FA or successful minor leaguers who developed, like Ryan Braun!  (Nevermind Houston developed a much greater player in Lance Berkman than Braun will ever be!).

So where are we?  Dead in the water?  No, not necessarily.  McLane will have to spend money this off season and I would bet that pitching will be on the list of things needed.  Pinwheel is already opining to the masses that the name should be Andy Pettitte that is targetted and I say Pettitte is a Yankee, will remain a Yankee and will retire a Yankee... so don't bother.  Go for the pitcher that makes the most sense to the team, a top of the rotation guy.  Next you hope that next year you also get a second top of the line pitcher right from your own core group.  You've already spent the money on him, all that is needed is a turnaround by said pitcher.  Front and center Roy Oswalt, I'm talking about you.  One more decent young arm to break loose and you've got yourself a contender of sorts next season and of course more time to build the system back up so you're not having to constantly spend dollars in the FA overblown market and save some to lock up the young guys you're counting on like Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn and JR Towles.  Anybody notice that all three have regressed and make us feel a little bit like we might be witness to the next set of Ensberg, Lane and Burke?  Gee I hope not!
« Last Edit: July 08, 2008, 05:45:38 pm by Noe in Austin »

MusicMan

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Re: The end is near, give up all hope!
« Reply #1 on: July 08, 2008, 09:24:55 pm »
How ironic for a post this long to be titled "the end is near".

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Re: The end is near, give up all hope!
« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2008, 12:32:48 am »
Very nicely done.  I especially like the 'what-if" scenarios concerning the likes of Ensberg, Burke & Lane.  However ...


Hunsicker in the mean time scurried to keep a semblance of good young talent to keep coming through the pipeline and he struck gold with a couple of them: Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt, go ahead and throw in Brad Lidge while you're at it too.  Nicely done, eh?  Of course, Hunsicker is also the one who tried to wedge in Wade Miller, Mitch Melusky, Tim Redding, Daryle Ward, Carlos Hernandez, Wilfredo Rodriquez, Kirk Saarloos, Chad Qualls (the inconsistent one) and others but did not realize the same results.  Does anyone remember when the team was supposed to have a rotation manned by the likes of Miller, Oswalt, Redding, Hernandez and Rodriquez?  We all thought they were set for the next decade with such talented young arms, eh?  Also Hunsicker was also responsible for the failed drafting of such guys as Derrick Grisby and Robert Stiehl.  But you know, at least Hunsicker produced Berkman and Oswalt!  Oh yeah, and Morgan Ensberg, Jason Lane and Chris Burke too!  Guys who should be major league starters now and young veterans, except they forgot to do one thing: perform at the major league level.
I don't think your treatment of the pitching is entirely fair.  Hernandez was great before hurting his arm in a baserunning mishap, which is hard to lay at the Hun's feet.  Wilfredo had some injury problems that eventually led to his release and subsequent retirement.  grigsby & Stiehl were also bitten by the injury bug, limiting their ability to progress in accordance with their original potential.  Add to that group folks like Nieve, Paulino, James, Norris, Greg Miller, Rodrigo Rosario, Tony Pluta, Tip Fairchild (to say nothing of the dearly departed such as Patton, Hirsh and now Albers) and it seems to me that injury (rather than poor drafting) has been the dominant factor.  I have no idea whether the Astro experience is worse than the norm, but it sure looks bad.
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Noe

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Re: The end is near, give up all hope!
« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2008, 09:54:02 am »
Very nicely done.  I especially like the 'what-if" scenarios concerning the likes of Ensberg, Burke & Lane.  However ...
I don't think your treatment of the pitching is entirely fair.  Hernandez was great before hurting his arm in a baserunning mishap, which is hard to lay at the Hun's feet.  Wilfredo had some injury problems that eventually led to his release and subsequent retirement.  grigsby & Stiehl were also bitten by the injury bug, limiting their ability to progress in accordance with their original potential.  Add to that group folks like Nieve, Paulino, James, Norris, Greg Miller, Rodrigo Rosario, Tony Pluta, Tip Fairchild (to say nothing of the dearly departed such as Patton, Hirsh and now Albers) and it seems to me that injury (rather than poor drafting) has been the dominant factor.  I have no idea whether the Astro experience is worse than the norm, but it sure looks bad.

My bad, clearly what I meant to convey is just because one has prospects it doesn't just translate into success in the majors.  Injury is the one factor and lack of development is another.  Both of which can jump up and bite you and mitigate anything that you do as an organization.  Is the current farm system barren of true prospects?  Yes.  Lack of trying?  No.  Guys like Bogsevic did not work out any more than a Derrick Grisby.  Having one Roy Oswalt up in the majors doing well tends to skew the perspective.  Had guys like Hirsh or Patton worked out the last few years, and I mean in the same vein Oswalt did, we'd hear less and less about the farm system being barren and truthfully the woes of the major league team would be lessened.

What is happening now to Houston is that the failure of the more than a handful of player and pitchers has caused the gap between the veteran free agents and the up and coming prospects.  Guys like Pence, Towles and the newly acquired Bourn are supposed to help lessen the use of these veterans but just the opposite is happening.  Paulino was supposed to keep the Astros from having to re-energize Moehler (for instance).  Hence why you're seeing what you're seeing now and why it is not always doom and gloom in the horizon.  Nobody can truthfully predict what FA will be the next Barry Zito or what prospect will be the next Evan Longoria.  All you can do is put them out there and take your chances.

McLane will keep opening the checkbook until someone tells him he does not need to any more.  Hopefully one or two of the FAs he picks up will be pitchers this time around.  And they won't fail.  That last part is hard to guarantee and thus why fans and media have to grow up a bit and understand it's not always about just cherry picking the FA and drafting the right prospect.  Sometimes, it is entirely up to the players to perform, like it or not.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2008, 09:56:48 am by Noe in Austin »

David in Jackson

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Re: The end is near, give up all hope!
« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2008, 09:57:31 am »
My bad, clearly what I meant to convey is just because one has prospects it doesn't just translate into success in the majors.  Injury is the one factor and lack of development is another.  Both of which can jump up and bite you and mitigate anything that you do as an organization.  Is the current farm system barren of true prospects?  Yes.  Lack of trying?  No.  Guys like Bogsevic did not work out any more than a Derrick Grisby.  Having one Roy Oswalt up in the majors doing well tends to skew the perspective.  Had guys like Hirsh or Patton worked out the last few years, and I mean in the same vein Oswalt did, we'd hear less and less about the farm system being barren and truthfully the woes of the major league team would be lessened.

What is happening now to Houston is that the failure of the more than a handful of player and pitchers has caused the gap between the veteran free agents and the up and coming prospects.  Guys like Pence, Towles and the newly acquired Bourn are supposed to help lessen the use of these veterans but just the opposite is happening.  Paulino was supposed to keep the Astros from having to re-energize Moehler (for instance).  Hence why you're seeing what you're seeing now and why it is not always doom and gloom in the horizon.  Nobody can truthfully predict what FA will be the next Barry Zito or what prospect will be the next Evan Longoria.  All you can do is put them out there and take your chances.

McLane will keep opening the checkbook until someone tells him he does not need to any more.  Hopefully one or two of the FAs he picks up will be pitchers this time around.

Well, I think many people DID predict Zito and Longoria, but your point is still a good one.

My primary worry about organizational depth is the Latin pipeline - which has been greatly reduced since the Abreu, Hidalgo days.
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Re: The end is near, give up all hope!
« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2008, 10:05:02 am »
How ironic for a post this long to be titled "the end is near".



did not fool me. i read the poster's name first.
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Re: The end is near, give up all hope!
« Reply #6 on: July 09, 2008, 10:06:43 am »
Well, I think many people DID predict Zito and Longoria, but your point is still a good one.

My primary worry about organizational depth is the Latin pipeline - which has been greatly reduced since the Abreu, Hidalgo days.

Did most organizations' scouting dollars go from Latin America to Asia?
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Re: The end is near, give up all hope!
« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2008, 10:07:32 am »
Very nicely done.  I especially like the 'what-if" scenarios concerning the likes of Ensberg, Burke & Lane.  However ...
I don't think your treatment of the pitching is entirely fair.  Hernandez was great before hurting his arm in a baserunning mishap, which is hard to lay at the Hun's feet.  Wilfredo had some injury problems that eventually led to his release and subsequent retirement.  grigsby & Stiehl were also bitten by the injury bug, limiting their ability to progress in accordance with their original potential.  Add to that group folks like Nieve, Paulino, James, Norris, Greg Miller, Rodrigo Rosario, Tony Pluta, Tip Fairchild (to say nothing of the dearly departed such as Patton, Hirsh and now Albers) and it seems to me that injury (rather than poor drafting) has been the dominant factor.  I have no idea whether the Astro experience is worse than the norm, but it sure looks bad.

Wilfredo's problems in RR were squarely between his ears. he let his great AA season convince him that he was star material.
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Noe

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Re: The end is near, give up all hope!
« Reply #8 on: July 09, 2008, 10:12:35 am »
Well, I think many people DID predict Zito and Longoria, but your point is still a good one.

My primary worry about organizational depth is the Latin pipeline - which has been greatly reduced since the Abreu, Hidalgo days.

Excellent point about the Venezuelan pipeline.  Houston used to be one of the few organizations with a strong presence in Venezuela (Cleveland being the other and at one time talk about Baltimore being there too).  Now there is more to choose from for young players, plus Andres Reiner is no longer in the organization to run said pipeline.  Houston, however, has increased it's presence in the Dominican, once a territory pretty much given over to the Dodger organization.  Nowadays, it is about being a good presence, not just a presence in these Latin areas.  Ed Wade took a tour of the Dominican presence and has decided some changes were in order, so more dollars for the facilities are being funneled.  I think that is going to take time, but certainly what was once a great source of players to choose from has taken many steps backwards for this organization.

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Re: The end is near, give up all hope!
« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2008, 10:37:51 am »
My bad, clearly what I meant to convey is just because one has prospects it doesn't just translate into success in the majors.  Injury is the one factor and lack of development is another.  Both of which can jump up and bite you and mitigate anything that you do as an organization.  Is the current farm system barren of true prospects?  Yes.  Lack of trying?  No.  Guys like Bogsevic did not work out any more than a Derrick Grisby.  Having one Roy Oswalt up in the majors doing well tends to skew the perspective.  Had guys like Hirsh or Patton worked out the last few years, and I mean in the same vein Oswalt did, we'd hear less and less about the farm system being barren and truthfully the woes of the major league team would be lessened.

What is happening now to Houston is that the failure of the more than a handful of player and pitchers has caused the gap between the veteran free agents and the up and coming prospects.  Guys like Pence, Towles and the newly acquired Bourn are supposed to help lessen the use of these veterans but just the opposite is happening.  Paulino was supposed to keep the Astros from having to re-energize Moehler (for instance).  Hence why you're seeing what you're seeing now and why it is not always doom and gloom in the horizon.  Nobody can truthfully predict what FA will be the next Barry Zito or what prospect will be the next Evan Longoria.  All you can do is put them out there and take your chances.

McLane will keep opening the checkbook until someone tells him he does not need to any more.  Hopefully one or two of the FAs he picks up will be pitchers this time around.  And they won't fail.  That last part is hard to guarantee and thus why fans and media have to grow up a bit and understand it's not always about just cherry picking the FA and drafting the right prospect.  Sometimes, it is entirely up to the players to perform, like it or not.
THese are really good points about FAs and prospects. It's hard to think of a single FA pitcher from this past offseason that you can look back now and think "Gee, I knew the Astros should've spent the dough to get that guy!" Schilling? nope. Carlos Silva? not looking great so far, ditto Livan Hernandez. Maybe I'm forgetting somebody, but it seems like many years, and especially this one, there is very little FA pitching that is anywhere close to a "sure thing," rather you have to either risk a Zito/Hampton-type deal or take a flyer on a risky journeyman-type. Sometimes you get a 2008 Kyle Lohse, sometimes you get a Chacon or Mark Prior or Runelvys Hernandez. It usually comes down more to luck than anything else.
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Noe

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Re: The end is near, give up all hope!
« Reply #10 on: July 09, 2008, 11:03:52 am »
THese are really good points about FAs and prospects. It's hard to think of a single FA pitcher from this past offseason that you can look back now and think "Gee, I knew the Astros should've spent the dough to get that guy!" Schilling? nope. Carlos Silva? not looking great so far, ditto Livan Hernandez. Maybe I'm forgetting somebody, but it seems like many years, and especially this one, there is very little FA pitching that is anywhere close to a "sure thing," rather you have to either risk a Zito/Hampton-type deal or take a flyer on a risky journeyman-type. Sometimes you get a 2008 Kyle Lohse, sometimes you get a Chacon or Mark Prior or Runelvys Hernandez. It usually comes down more to luck than anything else.

Eggszactly and so if we want to predict doom and gloom or all things are rosy and will be fine, that may be going too far (and hence why fans need to grow up a little bit).  What we should reasonably expect from the organization is this:

1. Identify the needs.
2. Find the avenues available to you to fill those needs (FA or prospects or trades).
3. Execute what is your plan A, plan B or plan C to get that need filled.
4. Hope for the best! (Just like all other major league teams).

What is the thing that needs to be address with more organizational direction is to avoid limitation of single source avenues to get better.  Meaning, don't let the farm system get thin so your chances of getting a good prospect up to the majors is limited.  Failure does not mean you avoid that area or limit your options in that area.  Same would go with the FA market, where Houston is going to be a player for the next several years *IF* the owner wants to continue the "we don't rebuild, we reload" attitude (and I suspect he will).

Does that attitude mean we will experience the same type of season as last year for the next five years or more?  I doubt it but I can't say for sure that we won't either.  All we can do is know that they're going to reload with the avenues available to them and guess what... it may work!  In the meantime, get some of those kids drafted this year developed, get the Asian and Latin pipelines more productive and thus with quanity, you will mitigate your chances for quality in terms of prospects. 

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Re: The end is near, give up all hope!
« Reply #11 on: July 09, 2008, 11:14:29 am »
THese are really good points about FAs and prospects. It's hard to think of a single FA pitcher from this past offseason that you can look back now and think "Gee, I knew the Astros should've spent the dough to get that guy!" Schilling? nope. Carlos Silva? not looking great so far, ditto Livan Hernandez. Maybe I'm forgetting somebody, but it seems like many years, and especially this one, there is very little FA pitching that is anywhere close to a "sure thing," rather you have to either risk a Zito/Hampton-type deal or take a flyer on a risky journeyman-type. Sometimes you get a 2008 Kyle Lohse, sometimes you get a Chacon or Mark Prior or Runelvys Hernandez. It usually comes down more to luck than anything else.

The free agent market for pitching was pretty terrible last season.  Everyone knew it.  That's why it wasn't a big deal that the Astros didn't venture out into that market.  What will be interesting to see is what do the Astros do in the upcoming offseason when the market looks very good.  Do they go out and sign Sheets or Sabathia (if they Brewers don't resign them) or AJ Burnett if he ops out of his contract with the Jays.  And there are more pitchers who could be useful like Garland, Dempster, and Lowe.  If the Astros can find a way to add 2 starting pitchers for next season and add them to Oswalt and Wandy all of the sudden you got a pretty good staff.  Maybe Paulino can work his way into the 5th spot in the rotation, maybe you start to see some other help from the farm.  But if you are only talking about a 5th starter, it doesn't seem so bad.  Which is why the idea of trading away the entire squad now is ridiculous.  

The fact that there isn't a lot on the farm now doesn't mean that this Astros team needs to be disbanded.  It just means that if ownership wants this team to be competitive, it will have to fill holes through free agency (and perhaps trades).  I have seen nothing from ownership to suggest an unwillingness to spend money on premier free agents.  And hopefully, the Astros will have better drafts (and less injuries) than previous years.

So I don't have a lot of concerns for the future even though watching the Astros is pretty ugly right now.
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Noe

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Re: The end is near, give up all hope!
« Reply #12 on: July 09, 2008, 11:37:08 am »
The free agent market for pitching was pretty terrible last season.  Everyone knew it.  That's why it wasn't a big deal that the Astros didn't venture out into that market.  What will be interesting to see is what do the Astros do in the upcoming offseason when the market looks very good.  Do they go out and sign Sheets or Sabathia (if they Brewers don't resign them) or AJ Burnett if he ops out of his contract with the Jays.  And there are more pitchers who could be useful like Garland, Dempster, and Lowe.  If the Astros can find a way to add 2 starting pitchers for next season and add them to Oswalt and Wandy all of the sudden you got a pretty good staff.  Maybe Paulino can work his way into the 5th spot in the rotation, maybe you start to see some other help from the farm.  But if you are only talking about a 5th starter, it doesn't seem so bad.  Which is why the idea of trading away the entire squad now is ridiculous.  

The fact that there isn't a lot on the farm now doesn't mean that this Astros team needs to be disbanded.  It just means that if ownership wants this team to be competitive, it will have to fill holes through free agency (and perhaps trades).  I have seen nothing from ownership to suggest an unwillingness to spend money on premier free agents.  And hopefully, the Astros will have better drafts (and less injuries) than previous years.

So I don't have a lot of concerns for the future even though watching the Astros is pretty ugly right now.


I highlighted the point that is where it is easy for fans and media to suggest to the Houston Astros how to run their organization: the end result is in some way guaranteed based on our perception.  It's not, but guess what, it is still a good idea to go after two prime pitchers (forget Pettitte). 

Will they? 

I suspect some soul searching will happen at the home office when they decided to add to the offense this season and left the pitching somewhat untouched.  But if the offense comes around and all hands are basically on-deck for next season, adding two prime pitchers to Oswalt and yes Wandy is a great idea.  Would McLane go for that?  I suspect yes he would, even if this is cyclical in that it is what Bill Wood told McLane would happen when he dived into the FA market and plucked out Drabek and Swindell.  Oops, didn't work out so well, did it?  So again, I'm not against the idea of going after the FA pitchers, I'm all for it and I'm also inclined to believe it will work and make the reload a possibility (and give the farm system a chance to be rebuilt).  But if it doesn't, would I be surprised?  No, not any more.  Nothing is guaranteed and quite frankly this season my disappointment is with the young kids (Paulino, Towles, Pence and Bourn) than the veterans.  Paulino of course is hurt, but that is still disappointing. 

Houston has a chance to get better quick, use this season to let some kids play, get Cooper some experience managing (not overmanaging), et. al.  I think we will see the offense take off again at some point and they will win a fair share of games and it won't surprise me if it isn't veterans like Loretta and Erstad, but kids like Bourn and Pence leading the way in a sense.  Matsui needs to play, Bourn needs to play, Pence needs to get his head out of his arse and get back to being a hungry young ball player.  Then move into next year with some promise to jump from pretender to contender once again.

It happened in 2001 (from a woeful 2000 season), it can happen again.  Oh and what is obvious to anyone paying attention, Oswalt has been terrible in terms of an ACE and leader and he needs to step up and do much better for the remainder of the season to get this team back behind him and marching into 2009 ready to compete.

toddthebod

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Re: The end is near, give up all hope!
« Reply #13 on: July 09, 2008, 12:08:34 pm »
I highlighted the point that is where it is easy for fans and media to suggest to the Houston Astros how to run their organization: the end result is in some way guaranteed based on our perception.  It's not, but guess what, it is still a good idea to go after two prime pitchers (forget Pettitte). 

Will they? 

I suspect some soul searching will happen at the home office when they decided to add to the offense this season and left the pitching somewhat untouched.  But if the offense comes around and all hands are basically on-deck for next season, adding two prime pitchers to Oswalt and yes Wandy is a great idea.  Would McLane go for that?  I suspect yes he would, even if this is cyclical in that it is what Bill Wood told McLane would happen when he dived into the FA market and plucked out Drabek and Swindell.  Oops, didn't work out so well, did it?  So again, I'm not against the idea of going after the FA pitchers, I'm all for it and I'm also inclined to believe it will work and make the reload a possibility (and give the farm system a chance to be rebuilt).  But if it doesn't, would I be surprised?  No, not any more.  Nothing is guaranteed and quite frankly this season my disappointment is with the young kids (Paulino, Towles, Pence and Bourn) than the veterans.  Paulino of course is hurt, but that is still disappointing. 

Houston has a chance to get better quick, use this season to let some kids play, get Cooper some experience managing (not overmanaging), et. al.  I think we will see the offense take off again at some point and they will win a fair share of games and it won't surprise me if it isn't veterans like Loretta and Erstad, but kids like Bourn and Pence leading the way in a sense.  Matsui needs to play, Bourn needs to play, Pence needs to get his head out of his arse and get back to being a hungry young ball player.  Then move into next year with some promise to jump from pretender to contender once again.

It happened in 2001 (from a woeful 2000 season), it can happen again.  Oh and what is obvious to anyone paying attention, Oswalt has been terrible in terms of an ACE and leader and he needs to step up and do much better for the remainder of the season to get this team back behind him and marching into 2009 ready to compete.

I can't imagine that the Astros will avoid the free agent pitching market.  They were criticized last off-season for not spending money on pitching and that criticism turned out to be right on the mark.  And ownership is sensitive to criticism.  But I agree with you, even if the Astros spend money on pitching, if Oswalt doesn't return to form, the team will be in trouble.  A team like the As would probably trade Oswalt.  But I don't think that is the Astros mindset.

And while I don't think that the Astros should trade any of their core players, I wonder what the trade market is for players like Erstad, Loretta, Blum, and Brocail.  All of them I think have value.  And if you can get back some low level prospects in return, the team might want to go in that direction.  The bench is always replacable.   
Boom!

Noe

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Re: The end is near, give up all hope!
« Reply #14 on: July 09, 2008, 01:07:48 pm »
I can't imagine that the Astros will avoid the free agent pitching market.  They were criticized last off-season for not spending money on pitching and that criticism turned out to be right on the mark.  And ownership is sensitive to criticism.  But I agree with you, even if the Astros spend money on pitching, if Oswalt doesn't return to form, the team will be in trouble.  A team like the As would probably trade Oswalt.  But I don't think that is the Astros mindset.

One thing that has been a constant in the thinking of the Houston Astros is that Roy Oswalt is a second half pitcher.  Here is my concern with that sort of thinking: That doesn't help if you are anchoring your team on Oswalt being an ACE all season long.

The career stats on Oswalt do bear out that in the month of August and September, he does lower his ERA by almost one run.  He also tends to pitch less innings (cumulatively speaking).  That probably tells you his usual MOD of abandoning the "pitch to contact" is in full force by August and if he goes six innings, he's happy to turn it over to the pen while keeping the other team(s) at 2 runs minimum.  His W/L record (career) shows a huge gap between how many wins he accumulates late and how many loses he has pinned on him.  This year however, Oswalt isn't the same first half pitcher he's trended to be in the past.  His career numbers show a healthy ERA, healthy IP count, actually a huge amount of IPs cumulatively (which again probably speaks to the desire to pitch to contact early in the season).

This year, Oswalt is just off in the first half.  His ERA is about a run higher than his career first half stats.  His March/April/May stats are just off the charts in terms of what he's done for his career in those months.  Almost two runs per game more and a lot more homeruns.  That is not an ACE nor someone who you can anchor on early to help you avoid long losing streaks.  A stopper every fifth game keeps you in the hunt, a true ACE in a good rotation doesn't really need to be a stopper, but it's good to know he's dominant enough to help at any given time.  Oswalt so far has not been that for this team.  Imagine if you will where this current team of Astros would be with the career Oswalt and not the 2008 version.

At .500?  Slightly above .500?  Have fans and media talk about "how can the Astros make a trade to go ahead and make a great push this second half?" rather than talk about "can we trade Oswalt?".  See if the Astros get a great second half by Oswalt, that is something to build on for next year because I believe the offense will flare up again sometime and start to really look better than it has.  Bourn, Pence and Towles can't be lost forever, can they?  Tejada may look old right now and that's okay, but Wiggington is starting to look pretty good and of course we don't know enough about Matsui yet, namely because Houston hasn't even settled on a leadoff man yet.  Berkman and Lee are just the core right now and it's about getting everyone else on-board.

I'm of the opinion that had Oswalt performed to mean this first half, we'd have very different conversations right now and so would the Astros.  The key to everything is what is going to happen with Oswalt in the near and extended future.  I think it would be stupid for the Astros to trade him.  I think that Oswalt also needs to stop talking to the press and start pitching like the ACE they need him to be.

Quote
And while I don't think that the Astros should trade any of their core players, I wonder what the trade market is for players like Erstad, Loretta, Blum, and Brocail.  All of them I think have value.  And if you can get back some low level prospects in return, the team might want to go in that direction.  The bench is always replacable.   

I'm not certain that the trade market is where Houston can be a player this deadline, even for fringe prospects.

TheWizard

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Re: The end is near, give up all hope!
« Reply #15 on: July 10, 2008, 01:55:11 pm »
How ironic for a post this long to be titled "the end is near".


If this was a democracy, I'd elect Noe to be GM for the Astros.  And then promptly ask him who really killed JFK.
Today seems like a good day to burn a bridge or two

moriartp

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Re: The end is near, give up all hope!
« Reply #16 on: July 10, 2008, 03:28:23 pm »
If this was a democracy, I'd elect Noe to be GM for the Astros.  And then promptly ask him who really killed JFK.


Just don't ask him to rewrite the tax code.

JimR

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Re: The end is near, give up all hope!
« Reply #17 on: July 10, 2008, 03:30:59 pm »

Just don't ask him to rewrite the tax code.

or to explain it
Often wrong, but never in doubt.