Author Topic: As the schedule turns  (Read 7941 times)

rambo2

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As the schedule turns
« on: May 18, 2008, 09:31:59 pm »
The Cubs and Cards have played 27 games at home so far.  The Astros have played 17 games at home. 

homer

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2008, 09:28:08 am »
DoRay was discussing this on the radio yesterday. Astros are among the league leaders in road games thus far, 28 games or something. And playing .500.

The Cubs have also played the pirates 7 times so far (5-2), and the Astros will play them for the first time this weekend.
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Limey

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2008, 09:32:44 am »
The Cubs have played the bottom three teams in our division, PIT/CIN/MIL 20 times out of 44 games.

The Astros have played the bottom three teams in our division, PIT/CIN/MIL 5 times out of 45 games.

Which of these things is not like the other?
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Gizzmonic

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2008, 09:35:35 am »
Stupid interleague unbalanced bullshit scheduling.  At least St. Louis has the goddamned Rays this year.
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Limey

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2008, 09:37:24 am »
Stupid interleague unbalanced bullshit scheduling.  At least St. Louis has the goddamned Rays this year.

Interleague is bullshit.  But it's hard to argue that the schedule is fucked when we're only just past the quarter pole.
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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2008, 09:48:15 am »
Interleague is bullshit.  But it's hard to argue that the schedule is fucked when we're only just past the quarter pole.

Right. Just play the schedule you're dealt. It'll even out over the course of the entire season.
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Limey

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2008, 09:51:52 am »
Right. Just play the schedule you're dealt. It'll even out over the course of the entire season.

Remember a few years back, when the Astros and Reds were in an unlikely chase for the NL Central crown?  The Reds got all upset because the Astros were closing the season at home against a woeful Brew Crew (IIRC), while they had to play someone mediocre.  "Not fair!" they cried, forgetting completely that the schedule is the schedule, and as balanced as the owners choose to make it.

Fucking whiny bitches!
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pravata

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #7 on: May 19, 2008, 10:00:21 am »
Right. Just play the schedule you're dealt. It'll even out over the course of the entire season.

That was one of my favorite quotes from 1M, "play the team that's in front of you".  A river of effluvia emanates from the constant reworking of rankings and projections that ignores the graininess of the season. 

matadorph

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #8 on: May 19, 2008, 10:07:34 am »
DoRay was discussing this on the radio yesterday. Astros are among the league leaders in road games thus far, 28 games or something. And playing .500.

The Cubs have also played the pirates 7 times so far (5-2), and the Astros will play them for the first time this weekend.

Actually, the Cubs are 8-1 against the Pirates so far this season.

Link

Noe

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #9 on: May 19, 2008, 06:11:40 pm »
This thread is why the TZ is so good (this thread and the beer threads as well).  Without context, a person could cite stats such as the runs scored/runs scored for the Cubs and pronounce them a runaway favorite to win the NL Central (*cough* Pallilo, *cough*) while the Astros are on pace for slightly above .500 with thier RS/RSA.

Also one can take the Cub's stats that state they are first in team BA, team OBP and team runs scored and say "Wow, what a great team".  Well add the context of Month of May, played mostly home games, played mostly the Pittsburgh Pirates... and well... those stats better be where they are or else the Cubs are awful (and they're not, but they're not as great as some may think either).

That is the danger of looking at a stat sheet and not knowing how to provide context to those stats.

matadorph

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #10 on: May 22, 2008, 03:10:15 pm »
To put some more perspective on the remarkable start to the 2008 season:

The Astros have only played 20 home games whereas the Cubs and Jakes have both played 27.

Of the 48 games the Astros have played thus far, 24 have been against teams that currently sit above .500 (with a combined winning percentage of .573), and 24 have been against teams with a losing record (with a combined winning percentage of .422). The Astros are 12-12 against the winning teams and 15-9 against the losing teams.

Of the 47 games the first-place Cubs have played, 17 games were against teams above .500 (with a combined winning percentage of .557), and they've played 30 games against losing teams (with a combined winning percentage of .423). The Cubs are 10-7 against winning teams and 18-12 against losing teams.

Of the 49 games the second-place CoJakes have played, 12 games were against +.500 teams (with a combined winning percentage of .578), and they've played 37 freakin games against losing teams  (with a combined winning percentage of .419). They're 8-4 against winners and 20-17 against losers.

The Astros have played 15 games on the road against +.500 teams, and they've gone a respectable 7-8 in those contests. The Cubs have played 9 road games against winning teams, for a 3-6 record, and St. Louis has played a laughable 3 road games against winning teams, good for a 2-1 record.

There's only one team in this division that's been tested early by the schedule-makers, and it ain't the Cardinals or Cubs.




Limey

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #11 on: May 22, 2008, 03:18:58 pm »
Of the 49 games the second-place CoJakes have played, 12 games were against +.500 teams (with a combined winning percentage of .578), and they've played 37 freakin games against losing teams  (with a combined winning percentage of .419). They're 8-4 against winners and 20-17 against losers.

Cojakes?
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AtascAstro

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #12 on: May 22, 2008, 03:20:22 pm »
To put some more perspective on the remarkable start to the 2008 season:

The Astros have only played 20 home games whereas the Cubs and Jakes have both played 27.

Of the 48 games the Astros have played thus far, 24 have been against teams that currently sit above .500 (with a combined winning percentage of .573), and 24 have been against teams with a losing record (with a combined winning percentage of .422). The Astros are 12-12 against the winning teams and 15-9 against the losing teams.

Of the 47 games the first-place Cubs have played, 17 games were against teams above .500 (with a combined winning percentage of .557), and they've played 30 games against losing teams (with a combined winning percentage of .423). The Cubs are 10-7 against winning teams and 18-12 against losing teams.

Of the 49 games the second-place CoJakes have played, 12 games were against +.500 teams (with a combined winning percentage of .578), and they've played 37 freakin games against losing teams  (with a combined winning percentage of .419). They're 8-4 against winners and 20-17 against losers.

The Astros have played 15 games on the road against +.500 teams, and they've gone a respectable 7-8 in those contests. The Cubs have played 9 road games against winning teams, for a 3-6 record, and St. Louis has played a laughable 3 road games against winning teams, good for a 2-1 record.

There's only one team in this division that's been tested early by the schedule-makers, and it ain't the Cardinals or Cubs.





Nice Work.  Stupid Frontrunners

matadorph

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #13 on: May 22, 2008, 03:45:21 pm »
Stupid interleague unbalanced bullshit scheduling.  At least St. Louis has the goddamned Rays this year.

Yeah, but we have the goddamned Rays this year, too.

Noe

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #14 on: May 22, 2008, 03:50:40 pm »
The Astros are 12-12 against the winning teams and 15-9 against the losing teams.

Great work.  Here is another thing - someone is going to point out that a .500 record or even a lower than .500 record against winning teams *during a season* means that the Astros are an average or mediocre team.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  See, sometimes fans tend to mix their sports cliches and analysis and that leads to some troublesome analysis on their part.  When a sports media talk show does it, it just means more people are being led astray.  Here is the point: Realize that holding serve against the winning teams and taking as many games from the dregs is *eggszactly* what makes a winning team.  In 1998, one of the arguments *against* the Houston Astros being a good/great team was this very notion... that they win against the dregs and only have a .500 record against the winning teams.  So the 102 game winning season was flawed.  And they further point to the lost in the playoffs to San Diego as proof.

How silly.

See, let's take a baseball cliche and use it correctly here: The 162 game season is a marathon, not a sprint, however the playoffs are nothing like the season, so you cannot make one fit the other and make a judgement call on good or bad team.  This is not the NBA, this is not basketball, where you can dismiss a 22 game winning streak like the Rockets had and say "well, they're beating the bad teams, the playoffs will tell us if they're *really* good".  In basketball, that is a smart thing to say, in baseball it's just the opposite and a really stupid thing to say.  The idea in a marathon season is to win series, as many as you can and forget about what competition you're seeing on the other end.  You never take anyone lightly, so you play to the *best of your own ability* and if you're good enough, you will make the other team a losing team.  This gets repeated over and over again by *other* winning teams.  When two winning teams meet up in a season, the matchup in a three game series may be skewed by the rotation, the injury factor during that stretch of games, many other factors.  To hold a .500 record against winning teams pretty much means you match up well against them.  They win some, you win some and let's see who is the *hotter* team come playoff time.

The playoff is about who is playing the better baseball at that time and not necessarily who had the best record during the season and who was dubbed the "better team" based on stats.  If so, the New York Mets would've beat the St. Louis Cardinals easily in the 2006 NLDS.  Also the 2003 Florida Marlins would've lost to the mighty Yankees in the World Series.  For a stretch there, the wildcard teams in the playoffs were the most feared teams because they would be playing for their playoff lives up until the last week, last day of the season and then roll into the playoffs playing great baseball.  This was against teams like the 1998 Houston Astros who sat for two weeks waiting for the season to end to begin the playoffs or the Detroit Tigers who sat around and waited for the Cardinals to win the NLDS and thus cooled off.  Last year, the hottest team in the playoffs were the Colorado Rockies, who were so hot, they walked through their NLDS and NLCS games quickly and had to sit and wait for the eventual World Series winner to arrive into the championship series.  It's who is playing the best baseball, not who is considered the better team on paper/stats that wins in the playoffs. 

Also, I hear sports talk radio and newspaper guys do this a lot and for the life of me, I cannot figure out why: matchups strength.  IOW - they take position by position and make some sort of whacky analysis who has the better part of that position and thus they pronounce one team's point totals on a per position matchup as the indicator as to who is the better team.  Wow!  That could not be the more stupidest and misinformed way to judge a baseball team against another that I could think of.  Matchups?

It works something like this:

1st base: Cubs - Derrick Lee, Astros - Lance Berkman... push (.5 points each team), 1 point for Cubs or 1 point for Astros?

Ahum, that's stupid, okay!  And what is worst is that they'll say something like "Lee is hitting....".  Wait, wait, wait... I thought this was by "position", so isn't this about *defense*?  If you want to make a hitting lineup comparison of the two teams, then it should be 3 hole hitter versus 3 hole hitter, so it's Tejada vs. Lee... no?  Plus, a three hole hitter with talent on a well constructed lineup is going to be much better off than a quality hitter like say A-Rod on a poorly constructed lineup (see: Rangers, Texas).  So even when you compare lineup to lineup, you have to consider the lineup construction more than anything else.  Give me a well constructed lineup over one that features a mega-star at the three hole with not so great accompanying players for me to think that one is better than the other.  IOW - it's about team, not individuals.  All this is to say that what some folks considered informed and well versed baseball analysis is nothing more than fringe quasi-baseball ramblings.  You have to know the game to know how to judge it.  1st baseman are not charged with *guarding* the other team's 1st baseman, so why make these sort of NBA-ish analysis in the first place?  Know that in the game of baseball, the defense initiates the play, so that is where you look for strength and weakness right away.  Pitching and defense.  The offense is charged with reacting to the play initiated by the defense and thus we consider those who fail *only* seven times out of ten to be the superstars of the game on offense (.300 hitters).
« Last Edit: May 22, 2008, 03:58:55 pm by Noe in Austin »

austro

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #15 on: May 22, 2008, 03:50:57 pm »
And here's something unusual that I just noticed as I was checking out the upcoming schedule: starting with Monday 5/26, the Astros have five consecutive Mondays off. Zipper's going to get writer's cramp.
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MusicMan

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #16 on: May 22, 2008, 03:58:36 pm »
And here's something unusual that I just noticed as I was checking out the upcoming schedule: starting with Monday 5/26, the Astros have five consecutive Mondays off. Zipper's going to get writer's cramp.

And I'll have nothing to recap.
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BudGirl

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #17 on: May 22, 2008, 04:03:21 pm »
And I'll have nothing to recap.

Want to write the Friday ones those weeks?
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JackAstro

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #18 on: May 22, 2008, 04:08:48 pm »
And I'll have nothing to recap.

But you still get paid, right?
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Noe

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #19 on: May 22, 2008, 04:13:05 pm »
But you still get paid, right?

Agreement was by the word and/or photo you provide.  The larger the photo, the more rub girls.  Life works that way.

Limey

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #20 on: May 22, 2008, 04:37:57 pm »
And here's something unusual that I just noticed as I was checking out the upcoming schedule: starting with Monday 5/26, the Astros have five consecutive Mondays off. Zipper's going to get writer's cramp.

That's because they will have ripped off 20 straight prior to that.
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MusicMan

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #21 on: May 22, 2008, 04:49:47 pm »
The larger the photo, the more[s/] larger the rub girls.  Life works that way.

FIFY
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MusicMan

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #22 on: May 22, 2008, 04:50:31 pm »
Want to write the Friday ones those weeks?

I'd love to help, but the summer weekends are not going to be kind to me...
I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing AstroTurf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, torture of Bud Selig.

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #23 on: May 22, 2008, 10:34:37 pm »
To put some more perspective on the remarkable start to the 2008 season:

The Astros have only played 20 home games whereas the Cubs and Jakes have both played 27.

Of the 48 games the Astros have played thus far, 24 have been against teams that currently sit above .500 (with a combined winning percentage of .573), and 24 have been against teams with a losing record (with a combined winning percentage of .422). The Astros are 12-12 against the winning teams and 15-9 against the losing teams.

Of the 47 games the first-place Cubs have played, 17 games were against teams above .500 (with a combined winning percentage of .557), and they've played 30 games against losing teams (with a combined winning percentage of .423). The Cubs are 10-7 against winning teams and 18-12 against losing teams.

Of the 49 games the second-place CoJakes have played, 12 games were against +.500 teams (with a combined winning percentage of .578), and they've played 37 freakin games against losing teams  (with a combined winning percentage of .419). They're 8-4 against winners and 20-17 against losers.

The Astros have played 15 games on the road against +.500 teams, and they've gone a respectable 7-8 in those contests. The Cubs have played 9 road games against winning teams, for a 3-6 record, and St. Louis has played a laughable 3 road games against winning teams, good for a 2-1 record.

There's only one team in this division that's been tested early by the schedule-makers, and it ain't the Cardinals or Cubs.

Think its also worth noting that the Cubs longest stretch without an off day so far has been 13 games, and they've yet to play more than 6 in a row on the road (Cards 16 and 8 ).  The Astros just finished game 17 (of 20), after a 10 game road trip... 
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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #24 on: May 23, 2008, 12:00:03 am »
The Cubs have played the bottom three teams in our division, PIT/CIN/MIL 20 times out of 44 games.

The Astros have played the bottom three teams in our division, PIT/CIN/MIL 5 times out of 45 games.

Which of these things is not like the other?

of course, the cubs playing and beating those teams has a lot to do with them being the bottom three.

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #25 on: May 23, 2008, 09:14:24 am »
Agreement was by the word and/or photo you provide.  The larger the photo, the more rub girls.  Life works that way.

Wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute.

1) Does that apply to all writers, because I've got a huge draft review coming next month with plenty of room for words and pics?

and 2) What do the rub girls look like?
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Limey

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #26 on: May 23, 2008, 09:15:36 am »
of course, the cubs playing and beating those teams has a lot to do with them being the bottom three.

Shhhhhh.
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MusicMan

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #27 on: May 23, 2008, 09:18:21 am »
Wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute.

1) Does that apply to all writers, because I've got a huge draft review coming next month with plenty of room for words and pics?

Yes

Quote
and 2) What do the rub girls look like?

Rosie O'Donnell.  We're on a budget here.
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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #28 on: May 23, 2008, 09:22:47 am »
Agreement was by the word and/or photo you provide.  The larger the photo, the more rub girls.  Life works that way.

Guess you won't see any photos from me.
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homer

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #29 on: May 23, 2008, 09:23:32 am »
Rosie O'Donnell.  We're on a budget here.

Nothing that a brown paper bag and an active imagination can't overcome.
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Limey

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #30 on: May 23, 2008, 09:24:13 am »
Nothing that a brown paper bag and an active imagination can't overcome.

And Everclear.  Lots of Everclear.
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MusicMan

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #31 on: May 23, 2008, 09:26:48 am »
And Everclear.  Lots of Everclear.

Not enough booze in the world to overcome that.
I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing AstroTurf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, torture of Bud Selig.

Noe

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #32 on: May 23, 2008, 09:40:56 am »
Rosie O'Donnell.  We're on a budget here.

And Alkie scared all the Scarlett Johanssen looking ones away.

Andyzipp

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #33 on: May 23, 2008, 09:46:49 am »
And Alkie scared all the Scarlett Johanssen looking ones away.

Scared them away, locked them in his basement, tomato, toe-mah-toe.

Limey

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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #34 on: May 23, 2008, 09:27:20 pm »
Lookee here.  Cubs get to play the Pirates again this weekend.
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Re: As the schedule turns
« Reply #35 on: May 24, 2008, 10:43:08 am »
Damn it to hell matadorph and Noe, t-rrific analysis. You just exploded the heads of rotogeeks the world over.
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