The 2008 Houston Astros were defined this offseason as a team that would do well perhaps in one category and one category alone: offense. So the mantra for the local nine became "they will win games by scores of 10-9 more often than they will 3-2". Based on one month of observation, some of the offseason prediction is true. But will this sort of team make for a good NL Central Contender (no matter what ESPN says)?
No. No it won't. You can't win with offense alone.
There is plenty to be excited about when it comes to the 2008 Houston Astros and the offense is really coming out to front and center to excite fans all around town. I think that's awesome to be honest and if the Astros continue to use offense to beat teams, even with high scores of 6-5 or 8-7 and so on, believe me even the ESPNs of the world will stand up and notice. But will that be enough to make anyone really excited that we have a contender (for the NL Central) on our hands here? I think many of us will be excited about the team and how it's fun to watch them play, but to honestly value the team as a contender be on the lookout for one thing to come into focus more sharply in the coming weeks: the bullpen.
It is my firm belief that while many will focus on the starting five, the reality is that to contend you only really need a good starting three and a strong bullpen. Most teams are made up the same way. You can afford to have a Sampson or Cassell at the number 5 and Backe at the number 4 if you have a really strong bullpen. You will need Oswalt to be more Oswalt-like from now on and Chacon to continue to prove to everyone he can be relied on to be a #2 and hopefully Wandy gets back and provides a solid #3 for the rest of the year. If not, you go shopping for a 2 or 3 starter at the trading deadline. But what you cannot afford is a bullpen that struggles to find themselves. It is my contention that the next few weeks will define this bullpen.
One ESPN.com, they have a really nice article by
Amy K. Nelson on the Tampa Rays and their good fortunes to date. The highlight of the article is the bullpen for the team. A bullpen that features two ex-Astros bullpen members, Dan Wheeler and Trever Miller. Wheeler, Miller and Troy Percival are given credit for the veteran presence in the bully and shaping the bullpen into a cohesive unit.
Maddon equates the bullpen's success to Percival, but also says that many times players need to be in a supportive environment to extract the best results. The players say another key is that they know their roles.
"When the phone rings," Wheeler said, "we pretty much know who it's for."
Maddon admitted that the past few years the roles were constantly shifting, and that was, perhaps more than anything, a leading cause of an epically bad bullpen last season.... "I believe you can't have a good bullpen unless you have defined roles," Percival said. "I've always had the same goal: to be in the top five bullpens in the league. If you do that, you're keeping your team in the ballgame [and] you're giving your team a chance to win."
I believe that where Houston goes from here in terms of contention for the NL Central and a playoff spot will hinge on the bullpen coming together. A defined role for these guys is very much a coveted thing and I suspect Cecil Cooper is working towards that. Valverde in the ninth, Brocail in the eighth, Geary, Wright and Villareal in the seventh, Byrdak lefty middle relief and Borkowski and Moehler middle and long relief. One thing, quantity does not mean quality unfortunately so it is my own expectation that at some point some one will have to go because of redundancy. I suspect you're talking about Byrdak, Borkowski or Moehler more than any one else, but juneberno. What is true is that it would be very good for the team if pitchers knew their roles and then asked to go out and perform that to the best of their abilities. Will Houston have a great bullpen when all is said and done? I think they're going to find out soon as players get used to their roles and go out and do their best. My own gut feeling tells me that yes, this will be at minimum a good bullpen, possibility even great.
At which point, it will be fun to watch what the team will do when facing off with a good to great NL team and letting the pitching take over. If the offense is going to be held down by the other team's good pitching, it will be nice to know our local nine can do the same and it is may the best team win at that point.
