The lineup

[TheWizard]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080312&content_id=2422205&vkey=spt2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=hou&partnered=rss_hou

With Carlos Lee recently voicing mild "displeasure" with hitting in the 5-hole, what is a lineup card you would like to see?  Here's my fantasy manager lineup:

1. Bourne CF
2. Matsui 2B
3. Berkman 1B
4. Lee LF
5. Pence RF
6. Tejada SS
7. Wiggington 3B
8. Towles C
9. Pitcher

I know we'll probably never see Pence hitting in front of Tejada, and I don't know what everyone's stance is on protecting young hitters, but its just my .02.  I'm obviously not a MLB manager.

[Lefty]

Bourn
Matsui
Pence
Berkman
Lee
Tejada
Wigginton
Towles

[Gizzmonic]

Bourne
Pence
Berkman
Lee
Tejada
Wigginton
Towles
Matsui
P

[MusicMan]

Bourne
Pence
Berkman
Lee
Tejada
Wigginton
Towles
Matsui
P

Ditto.

[Bench]

Bourne
Pence
Berkman
Lee
Tejada
Wigginton
Towles
Matsui
P

You know what would be really brilliant? If you had the pitcher bat eighth and Matsui bat ninth. That way, after the first time through the lineup, it'd be like having two leadoff hitters. Why hasn't anybody thought of this?

Oh. I see: http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/news/boxscore.jsp?gid=2008_03_13_nynmlb_slnmlb_1

[remy]

Bourne
Pence
Berkman
Lee
Tejada
Wigginton
Towles
Matsui
P

double ditto

[JimR]

Anyone who puts Matsui 8th should be banned temporarily

If Lee makes a difference:

Bourn
Matsui
Tejada
Lee
Berkman (or swap MT and LB)
Pence
Wigginton
Towles/Ausmus/Q
P

[MusicMan]

Anyone who puts Matsui 8th should be banned temporarily

Why?  Wouldn't you rather have a veteran in those spots where you have to swing ahead of the pitcher, rather than putting the rookie there?

[Duman]

Kaz was brought over to add glove at second and speed to the top of the line up.  At 8th, you are clogging things up in front of him.

[JimR]

MM, that is not a factor.

[Gizzmonic]

Better to bottle up Kaz than Pence.  Pence is nearly as big of a speed threat, and he's not going to get many pitches to hit if he's batting 6th-not to mention he'll be bottled up by Berkman, Lee, and Tejada.

Kaz was brought over to add glove at second and speed to the top of the line up.  At 8th, you are clogging things up in front of him.

[Andyzipp]

Bourn
Matsui
Pence
Berkman
Lee
Tejada
Wigginton
Towles

If it were up to me (which it's not), this is how I'd open up the season.

[JimR]

Crazy talk. Go to a lineup 101 class.Speed at the top is the entire point.

[MikeyBoy]

Bourn
Matsui
Pence
Berkman
Lee
Tejada
Wigginton
Towles

If it were up to me (which it's not), this is how I'd open up the season.

+1

[Limey]

CF Alba
2B Johansson
1B Connelly
LF Jolie
3B Hayek
RF Sachse
C  Cuthbert
SS Beckinsale
P  Theron

Equipment Manager:  Yours Truly

[MusicMan]

Your 1b suffers from - ahem - declining skills.

[Ty in Tampa]

CF Alba
2B Johansson
1B Connelly
LF Jolie
3B Hayek
RF Sachse
C  Cuthbert
SS Beckinsale
P  Theron

Equipment Manager:  Yours Truly

Is Milano your power-righty off the bench?

[remy]

Adam Everett's career offensive numbers aren't that dissimilar from Kaz's, and they've both got fairly comparable speed.  Was it blashpemy not to have AE hitting in the 2 hole the past few years?

My only real problem with the OP's projected lineup is the aforementioned "bottling up" of Pence.  Lefty might be on the right track with his lineup.

(But Limey's wins hands down.)

[Bench]

CF Alba
2B Johansson
1B Connelly
LF Jolie
3B Hayek
RF Sachse
C  Cuthbert
SS Beckinsale
P  Theron

Equipment Manager:  Yours Truly

I'm sure I'm going to sound like an idiot, but who is Sachse?

[Limey]

I'm sure I'm going to sound like an idiot, but who is Sachse?

Channel 2's profound news anchor.  Or, if you prefer a more obvious answer, the one with the honkers on the left.

[Twoniner]

  What are we looking at as baseline acceptable BA. and OBP. numbers for Matsui hitting 2nd?   For me, last year's Colorado numbers .280 & .339 OBP would be fine with his speed and handling of the bat.   I do like Matsui 2nd in that it gives Bourn a much better chance to run.  In turn you are taking advantage of Matsui's slap hits with Bourn's speed.     If for some reason Matsui returns to hitting like he did with the Mets, you can move Pence in there.   You would get the speed minus the bat handling, but pitchers couldn't be as careful with Pence.

[Hornstros]

Channel 2's profound news anchor.  Or, if you prefer a more obvious answer, the one with the honkers on the left.

She's no Michelle Valles

[Trey]

Is Milano your power-righty off the bench?

My Peter King random fact of the day that may only interest me:

If you search imdb.com for "Conan" the first return is Alyssa Milano

[Lefty]

Why?  Wouldn't you rather have a veteran in those spots where you have to swing ahead of the pitcher, rather than putting the rookie there?

Towles has always had a good eye & good on-base skills.  Get on, get the pitcher up, get bunted over.

[Lefty]

You know what would be really brilliant? If you had the pitcher bat eighth and Matsui bat ninth. That way, after the first time through the lineup, it'd be like having two leadoff hitters. Why hasn't anybody thought of this?

Carlos doesn't want to hit 5th, eh?  Just tell him that Bourn is the "2nd leadoff hitter" batting 9th, and Matsui's leadoff.  So you're hitting 4th now, ok, Carlos?  Then tell him that in an added bit of genius, we're going to lead off the game with our 9th hitter.  "We've run the simulations", says Coop.

[jonbloozy]

You know what would be really brilliant? If you had the pitcher bat eighth and Matsui bat ninth. That way, after the first time through the lineup, it'd be like having two leadoff hitters. Why hasn't anybody thought of this?

Oh. I see: http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/news/boxscore.jsp?gid=2008_03_13_nynmlb_slnmlb_1

This is great.  I also suggest, that to build up him up, instead of Kaz, we call him Itchiro.

[Burzmali]

Bourn
Berkman
Pence
Lee
Tejada
Wigginton
Matsui
Pitcher
Towles

Explanations:
Bourn is the best "decent obp, low slg, good speed" guy, so he is the best leadoff option.
Berkman is the best overall balanced hitter on the team, providing on-base and power, so he is the best option for #2.
Either Pence, Lee, or Tejada could work here, but there is a slight advantage to hit % in the #3 slot so Pence wins out.
Lee is the best remaining option for #4 because of his power.
Tejada is the best remaining hitter.
Wigginton is the best remaining hitter.
Matsui works better here than #9 because of his on-base problems, unless he can keep up his obp numbers from Colorado.
Pitcher here because #8 and #9 are almost the same importance, but obp is much more valuable in the #9 slot.
Last remaining hitter, Towles.

[VirtualBob]

Carlos doesn't want to hit 5th, eh?  Just tell him that Bourn is the "2nd leadoff hitter" batting 9th, and Matsui's leadoff.  So you're hitting 4th now, ok, Carlos?  Then tell him that in an added bit of genius, we're going to lead off the game with our 9th hitter.  "We've run the simulations", says Coop.

Well ... As long as you've run the simulations, that should end the discussion, right?

[VirtualBob]

Bourn
Berkman
Pence
Lee
Tejada
Wigginton
Matsui
Pitcher
Towles

Explanations:
Bourn is the best "decent obp, low slg, good speed" guy, so he is the best leadoff option.
Berkman is the best overall balanced hitter on the team, providing on-base and power, so he is the best option for #2.

No he is not.  This idea has not gotten any more sane since the last time you tried to float it.

[Burzmali]

Well ... As long as you've run the simulations, that should end the discussion, right?

The one I posted scores about 4.9 a game, the one Gizzmonic posted scores about 4.7, a difference of like 32 runs over the season i think, not a big difference. Last year's team scored 4.46 a game. Scoring 4.9 a game would move the offense up from 13th best to 6th best in the NL, holding the other teams constant.

This is using a .330/.400 line for Towles, and using 2006 for Matsui, everybody else is 2007, and pitcher's spot is Roy's 2007 line. I could try running it again with Matsui's 2007 numbers ( which I think are misleading because of Coors ), and with boosting Berkman's line which I think is likely to happen.

[subnuclear]

The one I posted scores about 4.9 a game, the one Gizzmonic posted scores about 4.7, a difference of like 32 runs over the season i think, not a big difference. Last year's team scored 4.46 a game. Scoring 4.9 a game would move the offense up from 13th best to 6th best in the NL, holding the other teams constant.

Based on what?

[billemite]

Channel 2's profound news anchor.  Or, if you prefer a more obvious answer, the one with the honkers on the left.

Amen. When I was in high school, my dad and I would watch her do the traffic report every morning even though neither of us commuted into Houston. Limey obviously shares the Grocer's weakness for homegrown talent (as do I).

[Burzmali]

Based on what?

Incomplete and basic runs scored formula.

But it doesn't matter, the Astros will never bat the pitcher 8th or Berkman 2nd. The thread just said to post a lineup you'd like to see.

[subnuclear]

Incomplete and basic runs scored formula.

But it doesn't matter, the Astros will never bat the pitcher 8th or Berkman 2nd. The thread just said to post a lineup you'd like to see.

Well I thought I would be nice and point out why whatever you are using is giving you garbage out, but if you are not interested that's ok too. 

[pravata]

Well ... As long as you've run the simulations, that should end the discussion, right?

I would pay folding money to watch Cooper say he had "run the simulations".

[Lefty]

I would pay folding money to watch Cooper say he had "run the simulations".

I'd pay more to watch someone ask him if he has.  Wanna volunteer, burzmali?

[Burzmali]

Well I thought I would be nice and point out why whatever you are using is giving you garbage out, but if you are not interested that's ok too. 

I don't think it's garbage... I just admit that it isn't the best, most complete analysis. I think it can serve as the basis for a casual discussion on a message board.

By the way I plugged in last year's lineup, and it spat out 4.45 runs per game. Lucky coincidence maybe, who knows?

[Burzmali]

I'd pay more to watch someone ask him if he has.  Wanna volunteer, burzmali?

Yeah. Maybe I can talk him into my next great idea: no starting pitchers, trade them all for stud relievers.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

By the way I plugged in last year's lineup, and it spat out 4.45 runs per game. Lucky coincidence maybe, who knows?

Ricardo Montalbán.

[Gleek]

Bourn
Matsui
Pence
Berkman
Lee
Tejada
Wigginton
Towles

I have to admit, I was leaning toward Pence in the two hole and Matsui 8th, till I read Jim's rebuke.  Makes sense, let's keep the speed at the top.  I like this lineup.

[Gleek]

CF Alba
2B Johansson
1B Connelly
LF Jolie
3B Hayek
RF Sachse
C  Cuthbert
SS Beckinsale
P  Theron

Equipment Manager:  Yours Truly

If it's up to me, I'm letting Connelly manage my team.  Heck, maybe she'd even let me hit her in the two hole.  Errrr, I mean hit in the two hole.

[JimR]

Burzmali, go fucking away. Anyone who would bat Berkman 2nd is not worthy of any attention whatsoever.

[chuck]

I have to admit, I was leaning toward Pence in the two hole and Matsui 8th, till I read Jim's rebuke.  Makes sense, let's keep the speed at the top.  I like this lineup.

Pence has plenty of speed. It wouldn't be completely idiotic to hit him at #2. Depending on how the first couple of months shake down it also would not be completely idiotic to swap Matsui and Towles if, for example, one is hitting and another isn't.

[Houston]

CF Alba
2B Johansson
1B Connelly
LF Jolie
3B Hayek
RF Sachse
C  Cuthbert
SS Beckinsale
P  Theron

Equipment Manager:  Yours Truly

Are you planning to borrow someone else's equipment?

[Mr. Happy]

Are you planning to borrow someone else's equipment?

Nope. That sneaky little bastard brings his own.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

Nope. That sneaky little bastard brings his own.

Sure, but I think we all know he's relying on "PEDs" to get thru that lineup.

[ValpoCory]

I could try running it again with Matsui's 2007 numbers ( which I think are misleading because of Coors

Coors Field's hitters advantage, although still there (3rd most offensive Park Factor in MLB in 2007), is far less statistically out there than before 2006 and the humidor.   

[Limey]

Coors Field's hitters advantage, although still there (3rd most offensive Park Factor in MLB in 2007), is far less statistically out there than before 2006 and the humidor.   

Although I've never been there, I've always assumed that Shea Stadium was the most offensive park.

[Craig]

CF Alba
2B Johansson
1B Connelly
LF Jolie
3B Hayek
RF Sachse
C  Cuthbert
SS Beckinsale
P  Theron

Equipment Manager:  Yours Truly

That line-up is a real (home) wrecking crew.

[WakePhil]

I have to admit, I was leaning toward Pence in the two hole and Matsui 8th, till I read Jim's rebuke.  Makes sense, let's keep the speed at the top.  I like this lineup.

The value of speed is largely dependent on the ability to reach base. So I think you have to value OBP more than speed. Not to say you take speed out of the analysis for a 2nd hitter (you definitely want a fast player), but the speed lost from Matsui to Pence is not nearly as big a factor as the extra times Pence will be on base.

Plus, I'd rather have more ABs out of Pence than Matsui.

[pravata]

The value of speed is largely dependent on the ability to reach base. So I think you have to value OBP more than speed. Not to say you take speed out of the analysis for a 2nd hitter (you definitely want a fast player), but the speed lost from Matsui to Pence is not nearly as big a factor as the extra times Pence will be on base.

Plus, I'd rather have more ABs out of Pence than Matsui.

There's several problems with Pence hitting 2nd.  The most important thing is that Cooper has to make a lineup that holds together 1-9.  Taking Matsui out of the 2nd spot causes ripple effects later.   Also, typically the 2nd spot is for a bat handler.  Pence can hit, but his approach isnt particularly situational.  He's going to have some adjustment challenges this season and worrying about hitting behind the runner, etc.  is an unneeded complication.   We've had some lengthy discussions here regarding line up construction, this thread will give you some background, http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=101388.0

(ETA) see also http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=236.msg236#msg236

[Mr. Happy]

There's several problems with Pence hitting 2nd.  The most important thing is that Cooper has to make a lineup that holds together 1-9.  Taking Matsui out of the 2nd spot causes ripple effects later.   Also, typically the 2nd spot is for a bat handler.  Pence can hit, but his approach isnt particularly situational.  He's going to have some adjustment challenges this season and worrying about hitting behind the runner, etc.  is an unneeded complication.   We've had some lengthy discussions here regarding line up construction, this thread will give you some background, http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=101388.0

(ETA) see also http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=236.msg236#msg236

You're correct. Pence is no more of a 2 hole hitter than Berkman.

[Astroholic]

You're correct. Pence is no more of a 2 hole hitter than Berkman.

Or Morgan.  Lucky we don't have to have that discussion this year.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

I think everyone who endorses the idea of Pence hitting second does so due to the effect he had last year hitting at the top of the lineup.  I don't think it's a radical idea, as they did it already, but it's not something the Astros consider plan A, I hope.   However, he's not fully utilized in that role as his future is as a middle of the order hitter.  Where, in that middle range, he is best suited isn't yet established (thoroughly discussed here).  Where ever he hits in the lineup, hopefully they take advantage of his speed. 

[pravata]

I think everyone who endorses the idea of Pence hitting second does so due to the effect he had last year hitting at the top of the lineup.  I don't think it's a radical idea, as they did it already, but it's not something the Astros consider plan A, I hope.   However, he's not fully utilized in that role as his future is as a middle of the order hitter.  Where, in that middle range, he is best suited isn't yet established (thoroughly discussed here).  Where ever he hits in the lineup, hopefully they take advantage of his speed. 

They had Pence hitting at the top of the lineup last season for the same reason they had him playing in centerfield.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

They had Pence hitting at the top of the lineup last season for the same reason they had him playing in centerfield.

Right, which I think was officially Plan C?  I can't remember exactly but I think the reservations centered on a rookie who had never seen time at the majors and played CF only sparingly.  So, again, highly unlikely to be Plan A! 

Of course, Plan C only came about because of the cruel and unfair treatment of Burke, obviously.  He never did get a fair shake.  Nope, the Astros never tried to get him in the lineup, trade another player to make room for him, or talk to him about not swinging for the fences.  Sort of like they never spoke to Ensberg about his mechanics or approach, I'm sure.  Now that I think of it, this Astros organization sure is full of evil baseball men who's only desire is to ruin the abilities of guaranteed SUPERSTARS!!!

[VirtualBob]

They had Pence hitting at the top of the lineup last season for the same reason they had him playing in centerfield.

Agreed.  I'd still rather see Pence at #3 and Tejada at #6 than the other way around, though.  I expect he would see better pitches at #3, and his aggressiveness at the platye and on the bases would be (imo) a very good thing.  Not that Miguel is not aggressive, but I think he is better suited to giving Berk-Lee some protection at #6.

[Nate in IA]

Your 1b suffers from - ahem - declining skills.

She was on some show my wife was watching on HGTV the other day, as a designer!

[pravata]

Agreed.  I'd still rather see Pence at #3 and Tejada at #6 than the other way around, though.  I expect he would see better pitches at #3, and his aggressiveness at the platye and on the bases would be (imo) a very good thing.  Not that Miguel is not aggressive, but I think he is better suited to giving Berk-Lee some protection at #6.

I don't know how they can keep Berkman out of the 3rd spot.  He's still the best hitter on the team.   I'm very skeptical of Tejada 3rd.

[HudsonHawk]

I don't know how they can keep Berkman out of the 3rd spot.  He's still the best hitter on the team.   I'm very skeptical of Tejada 3rd.

I'm with you.  Were it me, I'd start with:

Bourn
Matsui
Berkman
Lee
Tejada
Pence
Wigginton
Towles
Pitcher

Pence could fill in at leadoff or #2 if need be.

[Burzmali]

Burzmali, go fucking away. Anyone who would bat Berkman 2nd is not worthy of any attention whatsoever.

Statistically, #2 is the most important spot in the lineup. Anybody that thinks speed and bat-control are the most important qualities in a two hitter is delusional. Your ideas might make sense if the order reset every inning so it was 1-9 every time. It's not.

[MusicMan]

Statistically, #2 is the most important spot in the lineup. Anybody that thinks speed and bat-control are the most important qualities in a two hitter is delusional. Your ideas might make sense if the order reset every inning so it was 1-9 every time. It's not.

Your statistical projections are full of crap, because they assume identical outcomes no matter what the situation; i.e., Berkman will approach an AB the same with 2 outs and runners on 2nd and 3rd as he will leading off an inning.  It's not how the real game works.

[hostros7]

Statistically, #2 is the most important spot in the lineup. Anybody that thinks speed and bat-control are the most important qualities in a two hitter is delusional. Your ideas might make sense if the order reset every inning so it was 1-9 every time. It's not.

I just barfed on my keyboard.  My tech guy is going to be pissed.

[EasTexAstro]

Statistically, #2 is the most important spot in the lineup. Anybody that thinks speed and bat-control are the most important qualities in a two hitter is delusional. Your ideas might make sense if the order reset every inning so it was 1-9 every time. It's not.

As a manager, there is only one inning in a game where you can send exactly who you want to the plate. Everything else will be out of your control. Why would you not want to plan for executing that inning as well as possible?

[pravata]

As a manager, there is only one inning in a game where you can send exactly who you want to the plate. Everything else will be out of your control. Why would you not want to plan for executing that inning as well as possible?

That's true.  Also, if you look at the statistics, the team that scores first usually wins.   Matsui hitting 2nd, he wont always hit 2nd in an inning but he will ALWAYS be hitting behind Bourn, no matter the inning.  Should he be hitting behind Wigginton throughout the game?  Wade is paying Matsui $16.5 million in part to bat 2nd, because of his bat control and approach.  That's a lot of money under the control of someone who is delusional.

[Taras Bulba]

Your statistical projections are full of crap, because they assume identical outcomes no matter what the situation; i.e., Berkman will approach an AB the same with 2 outs and runners on 2nd and 3rd as he will leading off an inning.  It's not how the real game works.

When it comes to Berkman and his approach at the plate, the elapsed time both before and after a Little Debbie snack cake is of paramount influence.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

I'm with you.  Were it me, I'd start with:

Bourn
Matsui
Berkman
Lee
Tejada
Pence
Wigginton
Towles
Pitcher

Pence could fill in at leadoff or #2 if need be.

I'm looking forward to seeing what that lineup can do.  The only bigger question, for me, is whether Tejada is going to provide adequate defense at SS. 

[kevinG]

I just got some MAJOR deja vu because we've been through this all before. Kaz' performance in the two hole is largely, almost entirely, predicated on Bourn, as he displays a huge discrepancy in his hitting/approach situationally.

Man on first only:
.333/.367/.439

No one on, 1/2 out:
.214/.267/.336

Big risk/reward. Also, Burzmali, if you wanted to bring some big-league stat-geekery in here, you'd either argue that the lineup doesn't really matter over the long-term at all, or ignore this whole thread because of that.

[MusicMan]

Statistically, #2 is the most important spot in the lineup.

OK then, so we should expect to see all of these guys batting second, right?
ARod
Ortiz
Carlos Pena
Chipper
Magglio
Prince
Holliday
Pujols
Utley
Thome
Teixeira
etc.

In fact, since the statisticians are so fond of OPS, find me one player who led his team in OPS and hit 2nd the majority of the time.

I guess all 30 managers are delusional.

[Burzmali]

As a manager, there is only one inning in a game where you can send exactly who you want to the plate. Everything else will be out of your control. Why would you not want to plan for executing that inning as well as possible?

Where the inning starts is out of your control, but you can order it so that it gives you the best chance to score runs no matter where you are in the lineup.

[Burzmali]

OK then, so we should expect to see all of these guys batting second, right?
ARod
Ortiz
Carlos Pena
Chipper
Magglio
Prince
Holliday
Pujols
Utley
Thome
Teixeira
etc.

In fact, since the statisticians are so fond of OPS, find me one player who led his team in OPS and hit 2nd the majority of the time.

I guess all 30 managers are delusional.

I guess so. I mean only one manager is batting the pitcher 8th. And it isn't about OPS. If Berkman had a .330/.600 line, he would be better suited to the 4 slot. 2 is for the best balanced hitter, which he is.

[pravata]

I just got some MAJOR deja vu because we've been through this all before. Kaz' performance in the two hole is largely, almost entirely, predicated on Bourn, ...

Noe, what is deja-vu? Why Noe? Why? Noe como va?

"Matsui is a good #2 for Houston only if Bourn is doing what they fully expect him to do. That would then play to the strength of what Matsui does best with his bat control."  It's all been said before.

[David in Jackson]

That's true.  Also, if you look at the statistics, the team that scores first usually wins.   Matsui hitting 2nd, he wont always hit 2nd in an inning but he will ALWAYS be hitting behind Bourn, no matter the inning.  Should he be hitting behind Wigginton throughout the game?  Wade is paying Matsui $16.5 million in part to bat 2nd, because of his bat control and approach.  That's a lot of money under the control of someone who is delusional.

What Matsui is paid (or Williams, for that matter) shouldn't determine how he is used.  If Matsui can get on base like he did in 07 then he's a great #2 hitter.   If he can't, then he's not getting on base enough in front of our big hitters.

[Greg M]

Pence could fill in at leadoff or #2 if need be.

I'm sure Pence will hit 2nd when Matsui will have his inevitable injury.

[pravata]

What Matsui is paid (or Williams, for that matter) shouldn't determine how he is used.  If Matsui can get on base like he did in 07 then he's a great #2 hitter.   If he can't, then he's not getting on base enough in front of our big hitters.

No, it shouldn't.  But it does matter that the guy charged with putting together a team signed and is paying Matsui specifically for his defense, his bat control and his suitability to bat 2nd in the Astros lineup.

[pravata]

I'm sure Pence will hit 2nd when Matsui will have his inevitable injury.

Loretta, or if they trade Loretta, Blum.

[Burzmali]

No, it shouldn't.  But it does matter that the guy charged with putting together a team signed and is paying Matsui specifically for his defense, his bat control and his suitability to bat 2nd in the Astros lineup.

I appreciate what you're saying, but just because the GM thinks Matsui should bat 2nd doesn't automatically make that a smart decision. I'm a Republican, but I understand when people disagree with the President about the Iraq War. Just because the guy in charge thinks something doesn't make it right.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

I appreciate what you're saying, but just because the GM thinks Matsui should bat 2nd doesn't automatically make that a smart decision. I'm a Republican, but I understand when people disagree with the President about the Iraq War. Just because the guy in charge thinks something doesn't make it right.

At the same time, you run the risk of revealing yourself to be an arrogant prick because maybe, just MAYBE, the person in charge knows something you don't.  I'm not saying you are stupid to disagree.  You are stupid to state your view so absolutely as to imply the other person who thinks differently than you is a moron. 

[Ty in Tampa]

I appreciate what you're saying, but just because the GM thinks Matsui should bat 2nd doesn't automatically make that a smart decision. I'm a Republican, but I understand when people disagree with the President about the Iraq War. Just because the guy in charge thinks something doesn't make it right.

Your brilliance is wasted here. Can't you see that? You're much better off somewhere without all these hard-headed folks. I suggest finding that place and making this one a distant memory.

[Gizzmonic]

Can I say "I've run the simulations" when I play MLB The Show from now on?  I ran the simulations with the Astros with my lineup and still lost 4-2 to the Indians in Grapefruit League action.  Fausto Carmona is NASTY!

[JimR]

STFU, Burzmali. Idiotic

[pravata]

I appreciate what you're saying, but just because the GM thinks Matsui should bat 2nd doesn't automatically make that a smart decision. I'm a Republican, but I understand when people disagree with the President about the Iraq War. Just because the guy in charge thinks something doesn't make it right.

Don't be fatuous.  Wade obviously acquired Bourn and Matsui with a plan in mind. 

[VirtualBob]

I appreciate what you're saying, but just because the GM thinks Matsui should bat 2nd doesn't automatically make that a smart decision. I'm a Republican, but I understand when people disagree with the President about the Iraq War. Just because the guy in charge thinks something doesn't make it right.

There are two options here ...

1.  You are so incredibly brilliant that the rest of us cannot follow your logic.  Given that this is the case, you would be wasting your time (and ours) and should go away.

2.  You are so incredibly clueless that you cannot follow any logic presented by anyone else on this board.  Given that this is the case, you would be wasting our time (and yours) and should go away.

So ... Whenever the logical options reduce to one action, that's the one you should try first.

[Burzmali]

Don't be fatuous.  Wade obviously acquired Bourn and Matsui with a plan in mind. 

I'm not being fatuous. I agree, he did. If Matsui can't get on-base, he should not be batting 2nd. We'll see if last year was a fluke. Hopefully, Matsui isn't batting second primarily because of speed and approach, because that would mean that regardless of his production he'll stay there. If he stays there while reverting to pre-2007 obp, it will damage the team's offensive production.

[otterjb]

It'll be interesting to see who's in the 2nd spot in the order as the season progresses. Hopefully, Matsui will do great.

[tophfar]

... approach ... production ...

There was an old man named Michael Finnegan
He had whiskers on his chin again
Along came the wind and blew them in again
Poor old Michael Finnegan....Begin again.

There was an old man named Michael Finnegan
He kicked up an awful dinnegann
Because they said he must not sing again
Poor old Michael Finnegan....Begin again.

There was an old man called Michael Finnegan
Ran a race and thought he'd win again
Got so puffed that he had to go in again
Poor old Michael Finnegan....Begin again.

There was an old man named Michael Finnegan
He drank through all his good gin again
And so he wasted all his tin again
Poor old Michael Finnegan....Begin again.

There was an old man named Michael Finnegan
He went fishing with a pin again
Caught a fish and dropped it in again
Poor old Michael Finnegan....Begin again.

There was an old man called Michael Finnegan
Climbed a tree and barked his shin again
Took off several yards of skin again
Poor old Michael Finnegan....Begin again.

There was an old man named Michael Finnegan
He grew fat and then grew thin again
Then he died and had to begin again
Poor old Michael Finnegan....Begin again.

[otterjb]

But who the fuck is on first?

[tophfar]

But who the fuck is on first?

according to some, apparently not Matsui.

[Burzmali]

There are two options here ...

1.  You are so incredibly brilliant that the rest of us cannot follow your logic.  Given that this is the case, you would be wasting your time (and ours) and should go away.

2.  You are so incredibly clueless that you cannot follow any logic presented by anyone else on this board.  Given that this is the case, you would be wasting our time (and yours) and should go away.

So ... Whenever the logical options reduce to one action, that's the one you should try first.

Or, another option:

3. Individuals, generally, have a propensity to formulate differing opinions about various subjects. Given that this is the case, demonizing diversity of thought is a waste of time, and you should stop trying to insulate your community from those that share the core values of the community (love for the Astros) yet believe in disparate ancillary philosophies.

[pravata]

I'm not being fatuous. I agree, he did. If Matsui can't get on-base, he should not be batting 2nd. We'll see if last year was a fluke. Hopefully, Matsui isn't batting second primarily because of speed and approach, because that would mean that regardless of his production he'll stay there. If he stays there while reverting to pre-2007 obp, it will damage the team's offensive production.

The second part of your post was fatuous.  I said Wade had a plan.

[Ty in Tampa]

Or, another option:

3. Individuals, generally, have a propensity to formulate differing opinions about various subjects. Given that this is the case, demonizing diversity of thought is a waste of time, and you should stop trying to insulate your community from those that share the core values of the community (love for the Astros) yet believe in disparate ancillary philosophies.

List for me, if you will, people here who have even come close to embracing your philosophy. Jesus Christ you are not. Insufferable stat-geek, maybe.

[Burzmali]

The second part of your post was fatuous.  I said Wade had a plan.

Sigh. Okay, you win.

[Burzmali]

List for me, if you will, people here who have even come close to embracing your philosophy. Jesus Christ you are not. Insufferable stat-geek, maybe.

Show me where I mentioned anything about others embracing "my" philosophy?

[pravata]

...  demonizing diversity of thought ...

Get in line.  Are you so naive to think that you're the first person to pull this?  No one agrees with you therefore we're demonizing you?  No, simply we think you're wrong.  You forgot the conspiracy theory and the "circle jerk" line.

[Ty in Tampa]

Show me where I mentioned anything about others embracing "my" philosophy?

demonizing diversity of thought is a waste of time, and you should stop trying to insulate your community from those that share the core values of the community (love for the Astros) yet believe in disparate ancillary philosophies.

[Burzmali]

Get in line.  Are you so naive to think that you're the first person to pull this?  No one agrees with you therefore we're demonizing you?  No, simply we think you're wrong.  You forgot the conspiracy theory and the "circle jerk" line.

Hey, that post wasn't directed at you at all. It was the guy who said "there are two options, both of them end with you leaving this board". Still not a fair response?

[pravata]

Duarte went and asked Cooper

KISSIMMEE, Fla. -- Astros manager Cecil Cooper said Friday if the season started this weekend the top six spots in the batting order would be as follows:

1. Michael Bourn
2. Kaz Matsui
3. Lance Berkman
4. Carlos Lee
5. Miguel Tejada
6. Hunter Pence

http://blogs.chron.com/astrosblog/2008/03/sneak_preview_cooper_offers_po.html

[Burzmali]

Right...? I know what I said. Where in there do I say anything about others that believe what I believe.

[pravata]

Hey, that post wasn't directed at you at all. It was the guy who said "there are two options, both of them end with you leaving this board". Still not a fair response?

I think the frustration is that you're typing just to make yourself happy.  You're not getting any agreement for your theories.  And no one has suggested that you are a demon.  Or are attempting to conjure a demon.  Just clueless.  And you do seem to be oblivious to facts that do not fit your theory.  (The facts are in front of you.)

[MusicMan]

And no one has suggested that you are a demon.  Or are attempting to conjure a demon. 

Noe, how do I conjure a demon?

[Ty in Tampa]

Right...? I know what I said. Where in there do I say anything about others that believe what I believe.

Point: You can continue to post what you believe as often as you think is necessary but don't expect people to agree with you. Additionally, you should expect to piss people off and to be blasted for it, regardless of whether you think it's revolutionary, relevant, true even.

[VirtualBob]

I think the frustration is that you're typing just to make yourself happy.  You're not getting any agreement for your theories.  And no one has suggested that you are a demon.  Or are attempting to conjure a demon.  Just clueless.  And you do seem to be oblivious to facts that do not fit your theory.  (The facts are in front of you.)

Exactly.  Cluelessness wastes time.  Demons have an actual impact of some sort.

[Burzmali]

I think the frustration is that you're typing just to make yourself happy.  You're not getting any agreement for your theories.  And no one has suggested that you are a demon.  Or are attempting to conjure a demon.  Just clueless.  And you do seem to be oblivious to facts that do not fit your theory.  (The facts are in front of you.)

Oh come on, demonizing is commonly used metaphorically. The guy basically said "nobody agrees with you so leave".

But okay, I'll eject out of this thread.

[Lefty]

Hey, that post wasn't directed at you at all. It was the guy who said "there are two options, both of them end with you leaving this board". Still not a fair response?

Here's the thing:  you are not telling us anything that we haven't read before, on this board & elsewhere.  There is a gigantic disparity in how you view the game of baseball and how this board does.  We do not care to hear it.  You are not new.  You are not unique.  You are not singularly blessed.  You are bringing nothing to the table.  Stop it.

[pravata]

Exactly.  Cluelessness wastes time.  Demons have an actual impact of some sort.

Crowley correctly said that "the pretense of a demon is functionally equivalent to the presence of a demon."

[MusicMan]

There is a gigantic disparity in how you view the game of baseball and how this board does.  We do not care to hear it. 

I have no problem hearing it.  I have a problem when, presented with all evidence in conflict of a world view, the person continues to insist that world view is correct.

[pravata]

Oh come on, demonizing is commonly used metaphorically. The guy basically said "nobody agrees with you so leave".

But okay, I'll eject out of this thread.

Is the use of the word "delusional" metaphorical as well?

[VirtualBob]

Oh come on, demonizing is commonly used metaphorically. The guy basically said "nobody agrees with you so leave".

But okay, I'll eject out of this thread.

No ... The guy basically said that after posting the same nonsense over and over and over again while getting zero support for your zany perspective and all the while showing zero interest in any other perspective, no matter how well thought through or supported by real data ... after all that, then you should leave.  You're either beating your head against a stone wall or beating your stone head against a wall or something else equally fruitless.

Go
A
Way

[Lefty]

I have no problem hearing it.  I have a problem when, presented with all evidence in conflict of a world view, the person continues to insist that world view is correct.

That's more to the point, yes.

[pravata]

No ... The guy basically said that after posting the same nonsense over and over and over again wjile getting zero support for your zany perspective and all the while showing zero interest in any other perspective, no matter how well thought through or supported by real data ... after all that, then you should leave.  You're either beating your head against a stone wall or beating your stone head against a wall or something else equally fruitless.

Go
A
Way

Over and over again and the same as the last time he posted it a month ago.

[VirtualBob]

Over and over again and the same as the last time he posted it a month ago.

Yes ... I certainly was including that thread by reference in this recommendation.

[Ty in Tampa]

Over and over again and the same as the last time he posted it a month ago.

Predictably, as noted.

[Lefty]

Over and over again and the same as the last time he posted it a month ago.

Apparently, "burzmali" is not this guy's first foray onto the board.  I'd pull up the thread but it got Spacked, and so did he.

[VirtualBob]

Apparently, "burzmali" is not this guy's first foray onto the board.  I'd pull up the thread but it got Spacked, and so did he.

Try here:  http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=104636.msg173569#msg173569
Or here:  http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=104499.msg170294#msg170294
Or here:  http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=104428.msg169111#msg169111

Burke at 2b, Berkman batting second.

Sorry for the apparent provoking of animosity, even if you think my comments are stupid I don't think they are made with a bad attitude. 

from his earlier whine in that last thread.

Or here:  http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=104305.msg166227#msg166227
and note Jim R's response at that time:

Berkman at #2.

mind-boggling.

And then there's this one:  http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=104125.msg163600#msg163600 with the now-familiar whine: 

I'm not saying my posts should pass uncontested, just a little less vitriol would be refreshing.

(and note several on this board trying with some patience to educate him prior to this point in the thread.)

Back to the stat-geek, number-crunching-trumps-baseball approach http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=104043.msg162470#msg162470 (although missing the Berkman-should-bat-second refrain).

And at least he knows himself: 

I feel like I'm constantly repeating this, ...

(from this VORP-laden rant http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?action=profile;u=910;sa=showPosts;start=180)

There seems to be a pattern here.

[Bench]

Try here:  http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=104636.msg173569#msg173569
Or here:  http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=104499.msg170294#msg170294
Or here:  http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=104428.msg169111#msg169111 from his earlier whine in that last thread.

Or here:  http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=104305.msg166227#msg166227
and note Jim R's response at that time:
And then there's this one:  http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=104125.msg163600#msg163600 with the now-familiar whine:   (and note several on this board trying with some patience to educate him prior to this point in the thread.)

Back to the stat-geek, number-crunching-trumps-baseball approach http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=104043.msg162470#msg162470 (although missing the Berkman-should-bat-second refrain).

And at least he knows himself:   (from this VORP-laden rant http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?action=profile;u=910;sa=showPosts;start=180)

There seems to be a pattern here.

I'm amazed that it took you under an hour to put all that together.

[VirtualBob]

I'm amazed that it took you under an hour to put all that together.

There's plenty more where that came from ... it really wasn't that difficult.

[pravata]

There seems to be a pattern here.

"Monotonous, ain't it?"  If he's looking for agreement, he'd be hailed as a genius over on the Chron blogs,

[Burzmali]

Is the use of the word "delusional" metaphorical as well?

You know that post was in response to Jim's, which ironically was the main one espousing a view "so absolutely as to imply the other person who thinks differently than you is a moron". No big deal though, I don't really mind it. I was just replying in kind.

I think you're forgetting that the original post asked posters to post what their ideal lineup would be. I agree with almost everything Lefty is saying. I realize that my opinions are not new, or unique. I don't really start threads mouthing off about my opinions or calling attention to myself. I was responding to a thread that explicitly solicited opinions about the lineup.

Also, I'm not so sure that there aren't posters here that do agree with me. I actually know of one that actually worked for the Astros that agrees with me, that Berkman should hit 2nd. However, I'm not posting for gratification in seeing others agree with me. There really is no deep motive or agenda here. Post asked what my lineup would be, I reply. If people are going to try to debate the merits with me, well that's fun I'm all about that. I don't see why the debate angers you.

And for the record, I don't agree that there are "facts from the real world" that invalidate what I'm saying. I already admitted that the Astros won't be batting Berkman 2nd or the pitcher 8th. So what facts are you talking about that I'm oblivious to?

[Ty in Tampa]

I think you're forgetting that the original post asked posters to post what their ideal lineup would be.

See, here's the rub. Everyone knew what your lineup would be. You didn't even need to post it. Defending it was useless.

[Mr. Happy]

Duarte went and asked Cooper

KISSIMMEE, Fla. -- Astros manager Cecil Cooper said Friday if the season started this weekend the top six spots in the batting order would be as follows:

1. Michael Bourn
2. Kaz Matsui
3. Lance Berkman
4. Carlos Lee
5. Miguel Tejada
6. Hunter Pence

http://blogs.chron.com/astrosblog/2008/03/sneak_preview_cooper_offers_po.html

God Damn. Didn't I just read that in this thread?

[WakePhil]

There's several problems with Pence hitting 2nd.  The most important thing is that Cooper has to make a lineup that holds together 1-9.  Taking Matsui out of the 2nd spot causes ripple effects later.   Also, typically the 2nd spot is for a bat handler.  Pence can hit, but his approach isnt particularly situational.  He's going to have some adjustment challenges this season and worrying about hitting behind the runner, etc.  is an unneeded complication.   We've had some lengthy discussions here regarding line up construction, this thread will give you some background, http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=101388.0

(ETA) see also http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=236.msg236#msg236

Thanks, coincidentally I think this was one of the first threads I read when first started poking around this site (the first one, not the one from 05). I certainly understand your point on Pence's bat control, as that's the most obvious problem with him batting second. I'm not totally against Matsui batting second as long as he performs up to expectations. My concern above all is that Berkman should be batting third (which I have seen you espouse on several occasions). My second concern is that Pence will lose too many AB's at 6th, but its probably the best option if he's not batting second.

Not to be antagonistic but I'm curious, at what OBP would Coop start questioning whether Matsui makes sense in the 2nd spot, assuming his speed and bat control stay constant? Say Matsui's OBP is .315 - .320 and Pence holds to 2007 and is around .350-.360. Can you still bat him sixth and Matsui second? At what point does OBP become more important than Matsui's speed advantage and bat control? Not to say that's what I expect from Matsui, just curious where the line would be drawn.

[Lurch]

Thanks, coincidentally I think this was one of the first threads I read when first started poking around this site (the first one, not the one from 05). I certainly understand your point on Pence's bat control, as that's the most obvious problem with him batting second. I'm not totally against Matsui batting second as long as he performs up to expectations. My concern above all is that Berkman should be batting third (which I have seen you espouse on several occasions). My second concern is that Pence will lose too many AB's at 6th, but its probably the best option if he's not batting second.

Not to be antagonistic but I'm curious, at what OBP would Coop start questioning whether Matsui makes sense in the 2nd spot, assuming his speed and bat control stay constant? Say Matsui's OBP is .315 - .320 and Pence holds to 2007 and is around .350-.360. Can you still bat him sixth and Matsui second? At what point does OBP become more important than Matsui's speed advantage and bat control? Not to say that's what I expect from Matsui, just curious where the line would be drawn.

Coop may make a change at some point because of Matsui's ability to get on base, but it wont be because of his OBP.  Nit picked.

[pravata]

You know that post was in response to Jim's, which ironically was the main one espousing a view "so absolutely as to imply the other person who thinks differently than you is a moron". No big deal though, I don't really mind it. I was just replying in kind.

I think you're forgetting that the original post asked posters to post what their ideal lineup would be. I agree with almost everything Lefty is saying. I realize that my opinions are not new, or unique. I don't really start threads mouthing off about my opinions or calling attention to myself. I was responding to a thread that explicitly solicited opinions about the lineup.

Also, I'm not so sure that there aren't posters here that do agree with me. I actually know of one that actually worked for the Astros that agrees with me, that Berkman should hit 2nd. However, I'm not posting for gratification in seeing others agree with me. There really is no deep motive or agenda here. Post asked what my lineup would be, I reply. If people are going to try to debate the merits with me, well that's fun I'm all about that. I don't see why the debate angers you.

And for the record, I don't agree that there are "facts from the real world" that invalidate what I'm saying. I already admitted that the Astros won't be batting Berkman 2nd or the pitcher 8th. So what facts are you talking about that I'm oblivious to?

Oblivious means that you are aware of the facts and continue to ignore them. 

[pravata]

Thanks, coincidentally I think this was one of the first threads I read when first started poking around this site (the first one, not the one from 05). I certainly understand your point on Pence's bat control, as that's the most obvious problem with him batting second. I'm not totally against Matsui batting second as long as he performs up to expectations. My concern above all is that Berkman should be batting third (which I have seen you espouse on several occasions). My second concern is that Pence will lose too many AB's at 6th, but its probably the best option if he's not batting second.

Not to be antagonistic but I'm curious, at what OBP would Coop start questioning whether Matsui makes sense in the 2nd spot, assuming his speed and bat control stay constant? Say Matsui's OBP is .315 - .320 and Pence holds to 2007 and is around .350-.360. Can you still bat him sixth and Matsui second? At what point does OBP become more important than Matsui's speed advantage and bat control? Not to say that's what I expect from Matsui, just curious where the line would be drawn.

.30742191991919106....  There is no numerical threshold.  The lineup works or it doesn't.  If Matsui is not getting on but is doing other things to help move the offense, it's not going to show up in the numbers. Matsui's offensive contributions are going to depend mostly on how Bourn does.

[MusicMan]

I actually know of one that actually worked for the Astros that agrees with me, that Berkman should hit 2nd.

I guess someone forgot to check the suggestion box:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=berkmla01&year=00

[BatGirl]

noe, how does one surgically remove an anal fissure from the tz?

[jonbloozy]

I was trying to read what some think the lineup may or may not be.  I generally view an opinion that is different than my own as either interesting and worth contemplating, or just so absurd that it doesn't warrant a response.  If someone thinks Berkman ought to bat second, it's either worth exploring or it isn't.

[JimR]

Jonbloozy, no one asked you. Just let that idiocy die.

[OregonStrosFan]

Jonbloozy, no one asked you. Just let that idiocy die.

Jonbloozy.  Although I've yet to come up with a top 10 'topics for Clarks to avoid' list, I do have a preliminary #1 and #2:

#1: Berkman batting second;
#2: variances of application of FERPA with dependant children.

From one noob to another, pick your battles carefully...

[Burzmali]

.30742191991919106....  There is no numerical threshold.  The lineup works or it doesn't.  If Matsui is not getting on but is doing other things to help move the offense, it's not going to show up in the numbers. Matsui's offensive contributions are going to depend mostly on how Bourn does.

How do you determine if it doesn't work?

[MusicMan]

How do you determine if it doesn't work?

Wins and losses are one good way.

[Mr. Happy]

  If someone thinks Berkman ought to bat second, it's either worth exploring or it isn't.

It isn't. End of story.

[pravata]

How do you determine if it doesn't work?

If you don't know the ultimate purpose of a lineup, not just the second spot in the lineup, then I'm appalled that you have the arrogance to enter into the conversation at all.

[Mr. Happy]

How do you determine if it doesn't work?

This statement demonstrates the error of your thinking. Pravata tried to tell you. Your "stats" don't reflect things like swinging at a pitch to protect a stealing runner, hitting a ball to the right side to move a runner to third base, etc. As all-encompassing as stats are today, some things still aren't measured directly. I'll say that if Bourn scores 100 or more runs, then Matsui had something positive to do with it.

[Burzmali]

If you don't know the ultimate purpose of a lineup, not just the second spot in the lineup, then I'm appalled that you have the arrogance to enter into the conversation at all.

Just hold on a second, don't play games. I didn't ask you what the ultimate purpose of a lineup is. You said that there is no numerical threshold for Matsui to indicate whether he belongs at #2 or not. You said the lineup either works or it doesn't. I'm just asking for clarification on how you know when it isn't working.

[pravata]

Just hold on a second, don't play games. I didn't ask you what the ultimate purpose of a lineup is. You said that there is no numerical threshold for Matsui to indicate whether he belongs at #2 or not. You said the lineup either works or it doesn't. I'm just asking for clarification on how you know when it isn't working.

Me playing games?  You're the one insisting on a farcical numerical threshold.  Lineups are constructed to score runs.  Whether Bourn or Matsui score or Pence or Lee drive them in does not matter.

[Noe]

Just hold on a second, don't play games. I didn't ask you what the ultimate purpose of a lineup is. You said that there is no numerical threshold for Matsui to indicate whether he belongs at #2 or not. You said the lineup either works or it doesn't. I'm just asking for clarification on how you know when it isn't working.

Are you serious?

[Burzmali]

Me playing games?  You're the one insisting on a farcical numerical threshold.  Lineups are constructed to score runs.  Whether Bourn or Matsui score or Pence or Lee drive them in does not matter.

I understand that. How do you determine when the lineup isn't working and needs a change? I know how I would make that determination, I'm not clear on how you would based on the above posts.

[Noe]

I understand that. How do you determine when the lineup isn't working and needs a change? I know how I would make that determination, I'm not clear on how you would based on the above posts.

He did answer.  Why do you keep asking?  Don't you read what people say?

[pravata]

I was trying to read what some think the lineup may or may not be.  I generally view an opinion that is different than my own as either interesting and worth contemplating, or just so absurd that it doesn't warrant a response.  If someone thinks Berkman ought to bat second, it's either worth exploring or it isn't.

Don't join the ranks of the oblivious.  The reasons have been explained in this thread and in several other past threads that we have linked. 

[pravata]

He did answer.  Why do you keep asking?  Don't you read what people say?

He is unable to process outside information.

[Bench]

He is unable to process outside information.

His ideas, misguided as they are, aren't the problem. Burzmali's complete indifference and refusal to recognize the transparent reality of the situations he addresses is preposterous.

[Burzmali]

He did answer.  Why do you keep asking?  Don't you read what people say?

"There is no numerical threshold.  The lineup works or it doesn't." - pravata

"How do you determine if it doesn't work?" - me

"If you don't know the ultimate purpose of a lineup, not just the second spot in the lineup, then I'm appalled that you have the arrogance to enter into the conversation at all." - pravata

"You said that there is no numerical threshold for Matsui to indicate whether he belongs at #2 or not. You said the lineup either works or it doesn't. I'm just asking for clarification on how you know when it isn't working." - me

"Lineups are constructed to score runs.  Whether Bourn or Matsui score or Pence or Lee drive them in does not matter." - pravata


Noe, honestly, please help me out and tell me where he answered my question.

[Bench]

"
"Lineups are constructed to score runs.  Whether Bourn or Matsui score or Pence or Lee drive them in does not matter." - pravata

Does that help?

[Noe]

"There is no numerical threshold.  The lineup works or it doesn't." - pravata

"How do you determine if it doesn't work?" - me

"If you don't know the ultimate purpose of a lineup, not just the second spot in the lineup, then I'm appalled that you have the arrogance to enter into the conversation at all." - pravata

"You said that there is no numerical threshold for Matsui to indicate whether he belongs at #2 or not. You said the lineup either works or it doesn't. I'm just asking for clarification on how you know when it isn't working." - me

"Lineups are constructed to score runs.  Whether Bourn or Matsui score or Pence or Lee drive them in does not matter." - pravata


Noe, honestly, please help me out and tell me where he answered my question.

I can't help you if you seriously can't see the answer right there in front of you.

[Noe]

Does that help?

Thanks, that you have to tell that to a baseball fan is shameful.  It really hurts to see someone admit this fatal flaw in their understanding of baseball.

[pravata]

Thanks, that you have to tell that to a baseball fan is shameful.  It really hurts to see someone admit this fatal flaw in their understanding of baseball.

It's not even a secret.  You hear players say it all the time "he really picked me up there".

[Noe]

think you're forgetting that the original post asked posters to post what their ideal lineup would be.

Actually, this is what The Wizzard said:

"Here's my fantasy manager lineup..."

So I had no problem with what you posted until it was apparent you don't believe it's fantasy.  Especially the part about an ex-Astros organization man (Baseball or Business side?) agreeing with you.  Fantasy?  Yeah, your lineup would probably rock if in Fantasy baseball you were only allowed to take an entire major league lineup and make the changes and play it for a full season to see who scored more *points*.

In that fashion, I think you're way ahead of most folks in this thread.  I think you'd win actually.

[Mr. Happy]

Thanks, that you have to tell that to a baseball fan is shameful.  It really hurts to see someone admit this fatal flaw in their understanding of baseball.

I can just see his brain frying and him blurting out over and over again "that does not compute."

[pravata]

Actually, this is what The Wizzard said:

"Here's my fantasy manager lineup..."

So I had no problem with what you posted until it was apparent you don't believe it's fantasy.  Especially the part about an ex-Astros organization man (Baseball or Business side?) agreeing with you.  Fantasy?  Yeah, your lineup would probably rock if in Fantasy baseball you were only allowed to take an entire major league lineup and make the changes and play it for a full season to see who scored more *points*.

In that fashion, I think you're way ahead of most folks in this thread.  I think you'd win actually.

I was thinking that he's more like an HG Wells character who enters an overheated and crowded drawing room.  "Gentlemen! I propose an experiment.  We will replace the Astros 2 hitter with Lance Berkman and I maintain that he will have a higher OPS than the current 2 hitter.  Who will accept my wager?"  "But surely the Astros have a need to win games Laningham, would they let us do it?"  "You disappoint me Foster.  For I have constructed a time machine for this very purpose.  We will play the season out with their choice of 2 hitter, and then replay the sequence, every pitch, every situation, to determine whether my experiment produces the higher OPS from the 2nd spot in the lineup!  "But surely Laningham...."  "Enough Foster, Mrs Mason has some excellent mutton and port laid out for us, let us adjourn!"

[Noe]

I was thinking that he's more like an HG Wells character who enters an overheated and crowded drawing room.  "Gentlemen! I propose an experiment.  We will replace the Astros 2 hitter with Lance Berkman and I maintain that he will have a higher OPS than the current 2 hitter.  Who will accept my wager?"  "But surely the Astros have a need to win games Laningham, would they let us do it?"  "You disappoint me Foster.  For I have constructed a time machine for this very purpose.  We will play the season out with their choice of 2 hitter, and then replay the sequence, every pitch, every situation, to determine whether my experiment produces the higher OPS from the 2nd spot in the lineup!  "But surely Laningham...."  "Enough Foster, Mrs Mason has some excellent mutton and port laid out for us, let us adjourn!"

Methinks this is a version of the book that Tony LaRussa would really enjoy.

[jonbloozy]

Jonbloozy.  Although I've yet to come up with a top 10 'topics for Clarks to avoid' list, I do have a preliminary #1 and #2:

#1: Berkman batting second;
#2: variances of application of FERPA with dependant children.

From one noob to another, pick your battles carefully...

Don't join the ranks of the oblivious.  The reasons have been explained in this thread and in several other past threads that we have linked. 

Duly noted.

[Noe]

Duly noted.

Any chance to re-set stros-rays classic, that's a good thing.  Here it is:

==============

2006 TAKE OF THE YEAR
strosrays

In response to Bizidydizidy's unwillingness to admit his implied unfounded accusation that Kip Wells took steroids leading to his blood clot and repeated backpedaling from the accusation and the subsequent responses from a number of users calling him on it.


Perhaps this can made into a template and put in the FAQs.

Step 1 - Log in

Step 2 - Post a stupid, unsupportable message

Step 3 - Get hammered for it

Step 4 - Come back and say your original message didn't really say what it says, or doesn't say what it appears to everyone else but you it says

Step 5 - Get hammered for it

Step 6 - Come back and try to defend to original premise, the one you disowned in Step 4

Step 7 - Get hammered for it

Step 8 - Come back and say you are misunderstood, that you did not say what you said, or mean what you meant... but if you had, you would've been right, anyway. Give evidence to support this.

Step 9 - Get hammered for it

Step 10 - Take the high road, and say 'I am done with this', in a lofty way

Step 11 - Get hammered for it

Step 12 - Come back in (presumably on a lower road) and say, 'Yes I was done with this, but...' and proceed to rehash arguments made in Steps 4, 6, and 8

Step 13 - Get hammered for it

At this point, you can quit in indignant exasperation, or put in a go loop here and start the thing all over again. Either way, congratulations! You are now an OWA troll. "

================

Lance Berkman hitting second is reaching this proportion around here.  Just saying...

[Burzmali]

Does that help?

So at what point along the spectrum of how many runs the lineups scores is it deemed to "not work"?

[otterjb]

Burz, just give it a break, please. The only thing worse than reading about a long, bad argument is reading about the explanations of why things that were written were written that way, and on and on and on.

[Mr. Happy]

So at what point along the spectrum of how many runs the lineups scores is it deemed to "not work"?

When the manager gets fired. Give it a rest. Shit.

[MusicMan]

So at what point along the spectrum of how many runs the lineups scores is it deemed to "not work"?

The manager's office at MMPUS contains 162 hermetically sealed envelopes.  Each day, a FLASH alert is received by the bench coach, who then proceeds with the hitting coach and pitching coach to retrieve the envelope for that day.  All three coaches must then open the envelope in the manager's presence to confirm that the contents of the envelope are valid.  The manager must then compare the figure listed within the envelope to the team's average runs per game (adjusted for park effects, BABIP, platoon splits, zodiacal sign, and his current weight).  If the result does not exceed the figure in the envelope, the manager is required to change the lineup.  Should he fail to do so, the hitting coach is bound by the rules of precedent, baseball code, and maritime to relieve him of command.

Clear?

[Reuben]

The manager's office at MMPUS contains 162 hermetically sealed envelopes.  Each day, a FLASH alert is received by the bench coach, who then proceeds with the hitting coach and pitching coach to retrieve the envelope for that day.  All three coaches must then open the envelope in the manager's presence to confirm that the contents of the envelope are valid.  The manager must then compare the figure listed within the envelope to the team's average runs per game (adjusted for park effects, BABIP, platoon splits, zodiacal sign, and his current weight).  If the result does not exceed the figure in the envelope, the manager is required to change the lineup.  Should he fail to do so, the hitting coach is bound by the rules of precedent, baseball code, and maritime to relieve him of command.

Clear?

I once worked at a frame shop that was part of a large company. Their sales "goals" for each week actually operated on a frighteningly similar premise. Basically, for each week, they had a specific $ figure that each store should reach- based, apparently, on whatever that store happened to make the same week the year before, without regard to any other variable factors. If the store didn't match that $ amount, the manager had to cut payroll for the next week. This wasn't a periodic thing, mind you, this was every week.

[VirtualBob]

His ideas, misguided as they are, aren't the problem. Burzmali's complete indifference and refusal to recognize the transparent reality of the situations he addresses is preposterous.

Bingo!

[Gleek]

Gentlemen, you can't fight here.  THIS IS THE WAR ROOM!

[das]

Gentlemen, you can't fight here.  THIS IS THE WAR ROOM!

Ok, it's time to pack up the spring training bags and head home.  You guys are in mid-season form.

[Taras Bulba]

The manager's office at MMPUS contains 162 hermetically sealed envelopes.  Each day, a FLASH alert is received by the bench coach, who then proceeds with the hitting coach and pitching coach to retrieve the envelope for that day.  All three coaches must then open the envelope in the manager's presence to confirm that the contents of the envelope are valid.  The manager must then compare the figure listed within the envelope to the team's average runs per game (adjusted for park effects, BABIP, platoon splits, zodiacal sign, and his current weight).  If the result does not exceed the figure in the envelope, the manager is required to change the lineup.  Should he fail to do so, the hitting coach is bound by the rules of precedent, baseball code, and maritime to relieve him of command.

Yes, but all the radio gear is out, including the CRM-114.  I think the auto-destruct mechanism got hit and blew itself up.

Clear?

[BUWebguy]

I guess someone forgot to check the suggestion box:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=berkmla01&year=00

Berkman actually started a game in the leadoff spot once??

[Lefty]

Berkman actually started a game in the leadoff spot once??

Sometime in '01:  2-5 with a BB, 2HR, 4RBI.  Huh.

[Bench]

Sometime in '01:  2-5 with a BB, 2HR, 4RBI.  Huh.

But did he have the highest OBP that game? If not, he failed as a leadoff hitter.

[BUWebguy]

But did he have the highest OBP that game? If not, he failed as a leadoff hitter.

Yep, he did. Thanks for narrowing it down to 2001.
http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc/2001/B05270LAN2001.htm

What the heck - Berkman leading off for HOU, and Lo Duca for LA?

[Lefty]

What the heck - Berkman leading off for HOU, and Lo Duca for LA?

And Roy walking 4 guys in 1.3 IP? Weird game.  Winning run scored on a Berkman error?  Ok, not so weird.

[Arky Vaughan]

Leadoff - a guy who can get on base, must be willing to accept walks, must be willing to take pitches in hitters' counts, speed an asset but not a necessity if he can get on base, a good baserunner is a plus

#2 - another on-base spot, should be a good bunter, must be willing to take pitches in steal situations, an ability to hit behind the runner is helpful because this is a hit and run spot

I don't see speed mentioned as the pre-eminent characteristic in either of these descriptions.

[EasTexAstro]

I don't see speed mentioned as the pre-eminent characteristic in either of these descriptions.

It should be a consideration when the players are in the lineup.

Are you a supporter of the burzmali theory?

[Burzmali]

When the manager gets fired. Give it a rest. Shit.

The guy said that there is no numerical threshold, a lineup either works or it doesn't. I don't buy that. There has to be at least a general numerical threshold, where it is determined to "not work". Or is it like a Dusty Baker type situation where the GM just gets a gut feeling when it isn't working?

[MusicMan]

The guy said that there is no numerical threshold, a lineup either works or it doesn't. I don't buy that. There has to be at least a general numerical threshold, where it is determined to "not work". Or is it like a Dusty Baker type situation where the GM just gets a gut feeling when it isn't working?

You're willfully ignoring the fact that managers measure success by wins and losses, not by OBP.  It's not fantasy baseball.

[Burzmali]

You're willfully ignoring the fact that managers measure success by wins and losses, not by OBP.  It's not fantasy baseball.

They measure overall team success by wins and losses, but it seems like the efficacy of the lineup should be evaluated by using runs scored.

[MusicMan]

They measure overall team success by wins and losses, but it seems like the efficacy of the lineup should be evaluated by using runs scored.

A clue, Sherlock!  A clue!!!

[Limey]

They measure overall team success by wins and losses, but it seems like the efficacy of the lineup should be evaluated by using runs scored.

Rubbish.  It's how many you score vs how many they score.  Otherwise you'd want Berkman pitching.

[Bench]

A clue, Sherlock!  A clue!!!

He knows it's about runs, he just wants an exact number of runs to say "failure" or "success."

[MusicMan]

Coop wants to set the threshhold at 2.71828 runs per game, but I think that's an error.

[Limey]

He knows it's about runs, he just wants an exact number of runs to say "failure" or "success."

42?

[Limey]

Coop wants to set the threshhold at 2.71828 runs per game, but I think that's an error.

What about pi: a mathematicians adjacent female seat occupant?

[Burzmali]

Rubbish.  It's how many you score vs how many they score.  Otherwise you'd want Berkman pitching.

How many they score has nothing (or should have nothing) to do with setting the batting order.

[MusicMan]

What about pi: a mathematicians adjacent female seat occupant?

I think that's a circular argument.

[subnuclear]

The guy said that there is no numerical threshold, a lineup either works or it doesn't. I don't buy that. There has to be at least a general numerical threshold, where it is determined to "not work". Or is it like a Dusty Baker type situation where the GM just gets a gut feeling when it isn't working?

Statistics accumulate too slowly and contain too many systematic errors to use as the sole basis for decision making in baseball.   Statistical records can help a coach, but an experienced person just paying attention to how the game is played can pick up on things and make judgments much faster and as with as much precision.   

[Burzmali]

I didn't say numbers are the sole basis for making decisions.

I don't think Matsui belongs at #2. Obviously he's going to start there. A poster asked when/how it would be determined that the lineup isn't working with him at #2. Somebody said that it's not a numerical question, that's bull. You can't just "feel" the lineup not working.

[MusicMan]

So, to be clear, numbers aren't the sole basis for making decisions... but to say that it's not a numerical question is "bull"... and you can't "feel" the lineup not working.

Enjoying the contradictions?

[subnuclear]

I didn't say numbers are the sole basis for making decisions.

Assigning a metric threshold to determine if something is working is doing precisely that.  Experts looking at something and making judgments based on what they see is not going by "feeling."   Its the exact way a car mechanic fixes your car or a doctor diagnoses you when looking at an CT-scan.

[Arky Vaughan]

It should be a consideration when the players are in the lineup.

Are you a supporter of the burzmali theory?

I was just pointing out that somebody who knows what he's doing in filling out a line-up card has made a point that speed, while useful and desirable at the top of the order, is not the sole or even primary characteristic required there.

I haven't read enough of the thread to express an opinion on the theory.

[Arky Vaughan]

I'd be shocked if major-league teams had any kind of strict statistical thresholds for determining anything. That said, a tendency of players not getting on base, or the line-up not scoring runs, and hence the team losing games, would be something that a team would base decisions on, and that could be determined by a combination of witnessing players' ineffectiveness as well as looking at their statistics. I don't see why these would be mutually exclusive, since they tend to tell the same thing, just through different lenses.

[MusicMan]

The efficacy of the lineup should be measured as a whole, as should the team.  Thus, the decision to keep all eight players in the field is based both upon the defensive needs and the offensive; and if these 8 are determined to be in the lineup, then the lineup is constructed from there.  If the lineup *as a whole* is working with Matsui batting 2 - even if his OBP is sub-300 - it could be that he is moving Bourn over, working counts effectively, etc.  These things will not be reflected in most individual statistics.

It is why many have said that this lineup will depend largely on Bourn and Matsui at the top *as a combo* - not individually.

[Noe]

I'd be shocked if major-league teams had any kind of strict statistical thresholds for determining anything. That said, a tendency of players not getting on base, or the line-up not scoring runs, and hence the team losing games, would be something that a team would base decisions on, and that could be determined by a combination of witnessing players' ineffectiveness as well as looking at their statistics. I don't see why these would be mutually exclusive, since they tend to tell the same thing, just through different lenses.

Well said and something we all agree on.

[Mr. Happy]

I didn't say numbers are the sole basis for making decisions.

I don't think Matsui belongs at #2. Obviously he's going to start there. A poster asked when/how it would be determined that the lineup isn't working with him at #2. Somebody said that it's not a numerical question, that's bull. You can't just "feel" the lineup not working.

Bullshit. You've obviously never played or coached. You play hunches when setting lineups, changing pitchers, putting on plays, etc.

[Arky Vaughan]

Well said and something we all agree on.

Indeed, I don't think they'd typically have any kind of all-or-nothing threshold, statistical or not. It's no more "I'm going to pull him out of the line-up if his batting average falls below .250" any more than it's "I'm not starting him again if he makes one more error."

I suppose the exceptions may be pitching. Garner might've figured, "If Lidge blows one more save, I'm moving Qualls into the closing role." Of course, that's not really an all-or-nothing decision. Lidge already had a track record of things going wrong, some statistically measurable, others involving his health, mechanics, approach, etc., that are not directly measured by statistics, although the results of those issues certainly manifest themselves in statistics. Garner was already well aware of all these things before the straw broke the camel's back.

Similarly, the manager might think, "If he lets this next guy reach base, I'm going to the bullpen." But even then, the pitching coach and/or manager has already visited the mound, knows whether the guy's got anything left in the tank, knows the base-out situation, knows who the next batters are, knows who's warming up, etc. It's not an isolated decision. It's not a single make-or-break occurence. It's not a statistical measure. It's a decision based on all relevant, available information.

[Spack McGrimm]

My understanding is we got us a return of a banned poster around these parts.  I love fresh spleen in the afternoon.  Yum!

[Arky Vaughan]

Bullshit. You've obviously never played or coached. You play hunches when setting lineups, changing pitchers, putting on plays, etc.

True. But lots of different kinds of information, including the player's performance as measured by his statistics, might go into forming those hunches. The key is to be able to sift through all of that information and form a decision accordingly. If this were merely a statistical exercise (or an exercise based solely on any form of evidence), then we wouldn't need managers. We'd just wheel WOPR into the dugout and let it tell us what to do.

[MusicMan]

True. But lots of different kinds of information, including the player's performance as measured by his statistics, might go into forming those hunches. The key is to be able to sift through all of that information and form a decision accordingly. If this were merely a statistical exercise (or an exercise based solely on any form of evidence), then we wouldn't need managers. We'd just wheel WOPR into the dugout and let it tell us what to do.

If they bring in WOPR, we better put a moratorium on "Noe, why are there wars?"

[Noe]

It's a decision based on all relevant, available information.

Again, well said.

What Matsui will not be able to do is makeup for any deficiency on Michael Bourn's part to get on-base.  If that happens (Bourn struggles), then Matsui's game (as we know it) will be hindered.  He does his best work as a #2 when he has to concentrate on putting bat on ball, ie be a good contact hitter.  The powers that be seem to think that they can really use a Matsui bat control at the #2 because they think Bourn is going to get on-base enough to justify it.  It's going to have to play itself out instead of reaching a magic stat threshold at this point.

Ultimately, it's about scoring runs in many different fashions because one day you face a Jake Peavey and another day you face a Doug Davis.  With one, you can feel confident to load up the power bats, there are runs to be had.  With the other, you need to manufacture a run or two and that will ultimately lead to a chance to win the game or not.  If you have no way to manufacture a run, your chances of losing become greater against a Jake Peavey.  I heard Tal Smith say early last off season that if you took all the loses the Astros had by one or two runs, you'd have the difference between being a bottom feeder in the division and a team that contends all season long for the division crown.  I'm not sure he's entirely right, but Tal Smith is a sabrematrician and knows his numbers well enough that I'm guessing he doesn't need me to tell him to put down the slide rule!

[pravata]

Again, well said.

What Matsui will not be able to do is makeup for any deficiency on Michael Bourn's part to get on-base.  If that happens (Bourn struggles), then Matsui's game (as we know it) will be hindered.  He does his best work as a #2 when he has to concentrate on putting bat on ball, ie be a good contact hitter.  The powers that be seem to think that they can really use a Matsui bat control at the #2 because they think Bourn is going to get on-base enough to justify it.  It's going to have to play itself out instead of reaching a magic stat threshold at this point.

Ultimately, it's about scoring runs in many different fashions because one day you face a Jake Peavey and another day you face a Doug Davis.  With one, you can feel confident to load up the power bats, there is runs to be had.  With the other, you need to manufacture a run or two and that will ultimately lead to a chance to win the game or not.  If you have no way to manufacture a run, your chances of losing become greater against a Jake Peavey.  I heard Tal Smith say early last off season that if you took all the loses the Astros had by one or two runs, you'd have the difference between being a bottom feeder in the division and a team that contends all season long for the division crown.  I'm not sure he's entirely right, but Tal Smith is a sabrematrician and knows his numbers well enough that I'm guessing he doesn't need me to tell him to put down the slider rule!

I really wish we'd saved older posts.  I'd love to juxtapose discussions, (back when Hunsicker was the GM and was saying offense at short and catcher did not matter), regarding exactly how low Ausmus' average would have to fall before he would no longer be the starting catcher.   

[Mr. Happy]

True. But lots of different kinds of information, including the player's performance as measured by his statistics, might go into forming those hunches. The key is to be able to sift through all of that information and form a decision accordingly. If this were merely a statistical exercise (or an exercise based solely on any form of evidence), then we wouldn't need managers. We'd just wheel WOPR into the dugout and let it tell us what to do.

There are no doubt computers in the dugouts these days. However, I doubt that they'll ever become the be-all-and-end-all for baseball decisions.

[Noe]

True. But lots of different kinds of information, including the player's performance as measured by his statistics, might go into forming those hunches. The key is to be able to sift through all of that information and form a decision accordingly. If this were merely a statistical exercise (or an exercise based solely on any form of evidence), then we wouldn't need managers. We'd just wheel WOPR into the dugout and let it tell us what to do.

The interesting thing about what you're saying is that Phil Garner prepared for every game by sifting through the stats.  He felt that situtations within the upcoming game would arise that would require him to make decisions on changes available to him if necessary.  So he didn't sit there and look for situations, he sat there prepared for the situations if they arose.  If so, he had the information already stashed away to make what some would call "hunches" but in reality they were very well informed decisions.

Cecil Cooper was asked who his mentors were to be a major league manager.  He mentioned several people but when he talked about Phil Garner (one of the folks he mentioned) he said something akin to this: "He taught me to be prepared before every game.  There was no other manager that I know of that was as well prepared to react to game situations as Phil."

[MusicMan]

There are no doubt computers in the dugouts these days.

Prohibited by rule, IIRC.

[BUWebguy]

Prohibited by rule, IIRC.

Blackberries? iPhones?

[Arky Vaughan]

If they bring in WOPR, we better put a moratorium on "Noe, why are there wars?"

I wonder if WOPR can be programmed to chew tobacco and spit every once in awhile.

[Arky Vaughan]

I really wish we'd saved older posts.  I'd love to juxtapose discussions, (back when Hunsicker was the GM and was saying offense at short and catcher did not matter), regarding exactly how low Ausmus' average would have to fall before he would no longer be the starting catcher.

I'm pretty sure that if Ausmus were batting .100, he'd no longer be a starting catcher, but batting .100 would not in and of itself be the reason why. There'd be a lot more things gone wrong that would be apparent to everyone.

[Mr. Happy]

Prohibited by rule, IIRC.

They probably have computers in the clubhouse.

[pravata]

They probably have computers in the clubhouse.

Aren't the book of printouts they do for each game equivalent?

[Mr. Happy]

Aren't the book of printouts they do for each game equivalent?

Of course. One could get overwhelmed with all the data that they have. The good news is that it still all boils down to skipper hunches and hitter versus pitcher.

[pravata]

Of course. One could get overwhelmed with all the data that they have. The good news is that it still all boils down to skipper hunches and hitter versus pitcher.

For sure, but having the output is almost as good as having the actual machine.  Of course with the computer they could check the GZ for helpful hints.

[EasTexAstro]

I was just pointing out that somebody who knows what he's doing in filling out a line-up card has made a point that speed, while useful and desirable at the top of the order, is not the sole or even primary characteristic required there.

I haven't read enough of the thread to express an opinion on the theory.

Okay. Thanks.

[Arky Vaughan]

Of course. One could get overwhelmed with all the data that they have. The good news is that it still all boils down to skipper hunches and hitter versus pitcher.

Wouldn't the skipper always be the one making the decision and the hitter being the one to face the pitcher regardless of whether there were computers or a big book of print outs or even a Ouija Board or magic 8-ball in the dugout?

[Noe]

Wouldn't the skipper always be the one making the decision and the hitter being the one to face the pitcher regardless of whether there were computers or a big book of print outs or even a Ouija Board or magic 8-ball in the dugout?

Yes.

And you'd be hard pressed to find a manager today who goes by hunches alone.  They're all afraid of being fired for not using all the tools available to them to make informed decisions.  I'm guessing Grady Little is the last of the great hunch managers (or at least to display it in public so prominently).  His hunch to leave a struggling Pedro Martinez in a game to face left handed hitting Matsui of the Yankees was his basic undoing in Boston.

That was not the time to prove you're good at going with hunches.  The result really matched what the data was telling him... Pedro was done and Matsui is a good left handed hitter.

[TheWizard]

IMO, like its been mentioned, wins and losses are ultimately all that matters.  If a team is winning, the lineup isn't going to change.  If the team is fading, there's going to be tinkering.  If your #2 hitter is struggling but the team is on a tear, he's much less likely to be bumped around than if the #2 hitter is struggling and the team is tanking.

[Arky Vaughan]

IMO, like its been mentioned, wins and losses are ultimately all that matters.  If a team is winning, the lineup isn't going to change.  If the team is fading, there's going to be tinkering.  If your #2 hitter is struggling but the team is on a tear, he's much less likely to be bumped around than if the #2 hitter is struggling and the team is tanking.

Hand in hand with this is that statistics such as OBP, slugging percentage, etc. matter only to the extent that they contribute to winning.

[Limey]

Of course. One could get overwhelmed with all the data that they have. The good news is that it still all boils down to skipper hunches and hitter versus pitcher.

And execution.  If you'd ever seen me play golf, you'd know there's a huge gap between intent and result when it comes to sports.

[JimR]

Hand in hand with this is that statistics such as OBP, slugging percentage, etc. matter only to the extent that they contribute to winning.

exactly right in the context of team, which to idealistic geezers like me is all that matters. of course, those stats are very important to the individual players at salary time and to minor leaguers trying to make the bigs. i have been told by a former minor leaguer that "team" does not really matter to them until they get up to MLB. all they worry about is individual performance so that they can continue to advance up the ladder. he said trying to save ABs during a game approaches an art form.

[pravata]

exactly right in the context of team, which to idealistic geezers like me is all that matters. of course, those stats are very important to the individual players at salary time and to minor leaguers trying to make the bigs. i have been told by a former minor leaguer that "team" does not really matter to them until they get up to MLB. all they worry about is individual performance so that they can continue to advance up the ladder. he said trying to save ABs during a game approaches an art form.

And, if anyone thinks that the management of a baseball team is not keenly aware of every single statistic regarding every single player in their company, they are developmentally disabled.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

exactly right in the context of team, which to idealistic geezers like me is all that matters. of course, those stats are very important to the individual players at salary time and to minor leaguers trying to make the bigs. i have been told by a former minor leaguer that "team" does not really matter to them until they get up to MLB. all they worry about is individual performance so that they can continue to advance up the ladder. he said trying to save ABs during a game approaches an art form.

Just tell me it wasn't Morgan Ensberg.

[JimR]

Just tell me it wasn't Morgan Ensberg.

no, but that attitude is very common, is realistic and is the one you would have if you were playing minor league baseball.

[Andyzipp]

no, but that attitude is very common, is realistic and is the one you would have if you were playing minor league baseball.

No organization rewards players solely for winning in the minors.

[Duman]

I have a direct quote on this for you that was posted in the minor news last month from Greg Buchanan:

In college, he got a lot of coaching, with special emphasis on being a team player. Winning games was the most important part of playing college ball. A college season consists of 56 games.

“You play for your teammates, your managers and the fans,” he said.

Not so in the pros.

“Everyone is trying to move up in his separate careers,” he explained. “If you have a good day, you are not as upset if you lost.”

[MRaup]

I wonder if WOPR can be programmed to chew tobacco and spit every once in awhile.

[Robot voice] Lets... get... 2...[/Robot voice]

[VirtualBob]

No organization rewards players solely for winning in the minors.

... that attitude <playing for self> is very common, is realistic and is the one you would have if you were playing minor league baseball.

I think all of this is pretty obvious if we stop and think.  Winning is generally fun, so both fans and players will rejoice in it, but the players also (and often more importantly) are trying to "win" against the intense competition to become an every-day major leaguer.  This has both huge financial rewards and equally huge ego implications.

That said, I would think that a guy who figures to be a "good field, no hit" kind of guy, would work in the minors to develop a reputation for bat control, hitting behind runners, etc. ... all of the "hitting approach" things we have mentioned in many other threads.  This may result in less gaudy stats, but may do more to endear himself to the management in terms of ultimate career path. 

Does this sound reasonable?