Which gets back to the original point. Presumably, the people who rate farm systems don't just say how many players from this farm system are going to make the major leagues -- either with their team or another team -- which is what I think some people were trying to imply here -- that the Astros farm system can't get such a low rating based upon the number of players who are on the team. Rather, you have to project talent.
How many players from the Astros recent farm system have turned into really productive players?
How many players from the Astros current farm system project as really productive players?
Those who rate systems use performance metrics and number of high prospects on the list of said farm system. That supposedly translates into major league talent waiting to happen. But remember how Houston had the knock on it in the Gerry Hunsicker days of holding down minor league talent in the farm
too long? The Astros, in those days, were rated high as a farm system (even won a "Minor League System of the Year" award), the major league team was already stocked with players: Biggio, Bell, Bagwell, et. al., so you could keep kids down in the farm longer. And fans hated Hunsicker for doing that.
Damned if you do and damned if you don't.
How was a minor leaguer going to crack that sort of major league talent producing well at the major league level? Answer: they don't. So they win at the minor league level and produce championships and praise from farm system raters. Also makes for some interesting situations for kids like Russ Johnson. Remember him? Yeah, a one time legit prospect with Houston who could not crack the major league levels because of the outstanind producing talent at the highest levels that was holding him down in the farm. He was livid at Gerry Hunsicker, who refused to trade him because he was great insurance down in New Orleans. Gator Johnson was also getting a bit long of tooth in AAA and annoyed at not getting a chance, even as a reserve (which Gerry again was hesitant to do to an everyday player like Johnson). You know, having a Gator Johnson down at AAA playing some outstanding baseball with the likes of Lance Berkman, Daryle Ward and others produces some championships and high praise from Baseball America, but it defeats the purpose of why they're in the farm system to begin with: to become major league talent. So, does farm system ratings really mean anything? Yes, primarily to the raters themselves who sell their product to the fans who love to read this stuff. I admit I like to read it too.
But honestly, to a major league club, it may mean many different things:
1. They have to fix a "development" problem.
2. They have to fix a "drafting/talent evaluation" problem.
3. Prospects had a year off because of a number of things: injury, learning new pitches, mechanic adjustments, playing at a higher level than you would usually expect them to play, et. al.
Houston went out and hired Bobby Heck. What does that tell you? It tells you that they want to get better at talent evaluation, so they considered that a minor fix they needed to make. Development? They moved Dewey Robinson up to the major league club who has traditionally been the minor league development guru for pitchers. All the arms that have come through the Houston organization, to a man, will tell you how well founded Robinson's Pitching Bible (co-authored by the late Vern Ruhle) was in their development. So they have no fear that everyone in development understands what to do now and will continue that work in the minors. So an adjustment in talent evaluation, an adjustment in development, both of which are minor moves, not huge overhauls (think Blue Jays firing all their scouts and revamping their entire system).
If Houston was as dire as farm system rating systems say they are, then I would expect more than minor adjustments, I'd expect major overhauls like what happened in Toronto. So that tells me that the major league club expects to have the major league talent produce and in the future expects the development of the young arms to continue. They also expect better talent evaluation to lead to more prospects identified at drafting positions that Houston usually finds itself (not this year, they are drafting quite high and often... this is where Heck should shine). So while many will call it a problem, some will call it an opportunity.
I doubt many will call it a lost cause.
