The latest word from Bill James on clutch hitting

[pravata]

In a article published in the current Baseball Research Journal, the house organ of SABRE, Bill James calls into question the arguments against the existence of "clutch hitting".  At least that's how it's being played.  http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/11/30/james.clutch/index.html

In fact, he does no such thing.  The issue of "clutchness" is still up in the air.  James' real point is not to prove or disprove anything, what he does is to call into question the entire rational and methods that have been used to come up with this and other such conclusions, he writes, in typical Jamesian fashion,

"method used to reach these conclusions is unreliable to the point of being useless"  The article is here http://www.sabr.org/cmsfiles/underestimating.pdf

[Fredia]

clutch hitting is like believing in santa. if you get what you want for christmas you believe. if the player gets a hit that wins the ball game or puts it out of reach then it does exist.

[Ty in Tampa]

...he writes, in typical Jamesian fashion,

"method used to reach these conclusions is unreliable to the point of being useless"  The article is here http://www.sabr.org/cmsfiles/underestimating.pdf

This may have been mentioned before but he may as well be Ellen James.

[NeilT]

This may have been mentioned before but he may as well be Ellen James.

I recall that James wrote the same article on luck in single run games a couple of years ago.  Ty, James is smarter than you, and probably a better writer.

[Ankh]

Hmm,

wonder why this 3 year article only now got published? I thought it was discussed in SABR circles when it first came out in 2005?

In any case, Rey Ordonez as poster child for low OPS threw me back a ways.

[pravata]

Hmm,

wonder why this 3 year article only now got published? I thought it was discussed in SABR circles when it first came out in 2005?

In any case, Rey Ordonez as poster child for low OPS threw me back a ways.

It was.  I got my links confused.  The SI article is the teaser for his new book.  Still, I dont see how the fog has gotten any thinner.

[Ty in Tampa]

I recall that James wrote the same article on luck in single run games a couple of years ago.  Ty, James is smarter than you, and probably a better writer.

I was referring more to the maniacal way people follow him. But thanks for the verification.

[NeilT]

I was referring more to the maniacal way people follow him. But thanks for the verification.

No problem.

[legs_of_eggs]

This article reminds me of two names: Aaron Boone, Chris Burke

[Burzmali]

pravata: Did you post in that discussion about luck in baseball a while back?

[Arky Vaughan]

I was referring more to the maniacal way people follow him. But thanks for the verification.

More clogged toilets?

[ybbodeus]

Any mention of "approach"?

[Arky Vaughan]

Any mention of "approach"?

They don't believe in approach. They're too maniacal. I hope Ty barred the door so they don't bust into his house and try to waterboard him with zone ratings, OPS and VORP.

[ybbodeus]

Always a popular topic here.....well, maybe not popular.

[pravata]

I was referring more to the maniacal way people follow him. But thanks for the verification.

He's lost some of his followers since he joined the Red Sox.  He no longer has the objectivity and credibility of a Keith Law for instance.

[pravata]

pravata: Did you post in that discussion about luck in baseball a while back?

Not intentionally.