Nice Analysis to Revisit

[toddthebod]

MLB Trade Rumors posted the following analysis of the Astros' needs back in September.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/needs_and_luxuries/index.html

It's worth looking at again, because in some ways it was prescient.  The Astros did work a trade with the Orioles with Tejada with Patton as the centerpiece.  And the Astros found a veteran bat to replace Biggio instead of going with Burke.  But what is most interesting to me is the analysis of the Astros starting pitching, which the writer called a "luxury."  Essentially, the writer thought that Wandy and Williams were adequate 3-4 starters, that Oswalt was a solid 1 and that either Backe or Sampson were fine as the #5.  I somewhat agree with this analysis.  I think that Backe and Wandy are fine as the 3-4 and that Woody or Sampson are adequate 5s.     

Needs and Luxuries: Houston Astros

Today, we'll take a look at the Astros.  They'll install a fresh regime this winter and may do some major retooling.  It's about time.

C - J.R. Towles
1B - Lance Berkman
2B - Chris Burke
SS - Adam Everett
3B - Ty Wigginton
LF - Carlos Lee
CF - Hunter Pence
RF - Luke Scott

SP - Roy Oswalt
SP - Wandy Rodriguez
SP - Woody Williams
SP - Chris Sampson
SP - Brandon Backe/Matt Albers/Troy Patton/Juan Gutierrez

Closer - Brad Lidge
Setup - Chad Qualls

(Please do not post entire copyright material - to read the rest of the analysis, click on the link provided - thanks! )

[Froback]

Pretty interesting that he hit on all those things so well, but given that the Astros had made ovetures for Tejada before, makes this a pretty easy mark.  If they were interested in him before, you have to believe that Drayton was involved, because of the contract the team would add.  So while the GM might have changed, I am sure the owner still had interest on some level.

And looking at the Astros trade chips, the was nothing other than their minor league pitchers.  So that seems kind of obvious too.

Not much insight here, but looking back I can't say I saw THIS much turn over of players from last year to this.

I was throwing together the projected 25-man roster, and while we have discussed who we think the favorites for some of the holes are, I tried to only consider those that were under contract or offered arbitration, to get an idea of what was still open for debate vs what was pretty set.

Positon players were obvious:
C: Towles (Asumus will be opening day, but mostly back-up)
1B: Berkman
2B: Matsui
3B: Wigginton
SS: Tejada
LF: Lee
CF: Bourn
RF: Pence

Bench: Ausmus, Blum, Loretta, <open>, <open> 
Most around here feel those two open spots are Abercrombie and Cruz Jr.

Starters:
Oswalt
<open>
Rodriguez
Backe
Williams

Lots of debate over who is going to fill the open spot, but most feel that player is not on the roster yet.

Bullpen:
Valverde
Villiareal
Brocail
Geary
Sampson
<open>
<open>

While Geary and Sampson both might not be 100%, they seem to be in the "it's your job to lose" type position instead of having to "earn" a spot.  Tons of names potential for the open slots, including those not on the roster yet (FAs).

Also people have been wondering about the payroll, and that might (or might not) be a concern, but just think, Lee is going to get a $6 Million dollar raise in 09, and the two big ticket acquistions this year are both still under contract then too, so no matter what the payroll is this year, next year could be worse (although Woody and his $6.25 Million could come off the books if the option is declined).

[Noe]

Pretty interesting that he hit on all those things so well...

Cub fan.  Know thy enemy and all that...

[Jacksonian]

Bench: Ausmus, Blum, Loretta, <open>, <open> 
Most around here feel those two open spots are Abercrombie and Cruz Jr.

Bullpen:
Valverde
Villiareal
Brocail
Geary
Sampson
<open>
<open>

While Geary and Sampson both might not be 100%, they seem to be in the "it's your job to lose" type position instead of having to "earn" a spot.  Tons of names potential for the open slots, including those not on the roster yet (FAs).

No lefty power on the bench.

Bullpen will also include McLemore and Wright.  Sampson is not a lock.  It should be Valverde, Villarreal, Brocail, Geary, McLemore, Wright, <open>.

[Froback]

No lefty power on the bench.

Bullpen will also include McLemore and Wright.  Sampson is not a lock.  It should be Valverde, Villarreal, Brocail, Geary, McLemore, Wright, <open>.

Honestly I can't say for sure for any of the bullpen guys except the first 3.  I think everyone else is in a "earn" a spot position at this point.  I just figured Geary because he has more experience than most and Sampson because he seems the best candidate for the "swing" position out of the current list of applicants, so I listed them.  The two you added are both lefties, correct?  Is that why you listed them as more definite in your eyes?  Just curious not meaning to disagree, just trying to understand why you feel more strongly for them, than say a Sampson.

And yep, I think Lefty power is going to be lacking unless you consider Cruz Jr to be lefty power, since he seems one of the most likely candidates for the remaining 2 position player spots.

[Mike S]

Isn't Wright the Rule 5 pickup?  If so, he'd have to be on the major league roster the entire season, which is why I'm assuming Jacksonian included him on the opening day roster using his quasi-gay scouting methods.

[Jacksonian]

Isn't Wright the Rule 5 pickup?  If so, he'd have to be on the major league roster the entire season, which is why I'm assuming Jacksonian included him on the opening day roster using his quasi-gay scouting methods.

Um, right, or something.  Though it doesn't take much scouting of any kind to connect the dots.  You draft a guy in Rule 5 from an org deep in prospects who is a lefty reliever and just missed the cut to be on the original team's 40-man roster, and you're basically saying the job is yours to lose.  I'm also making my guess based on what's been written at astros.com, and the moves Wade's made to now.  If the season started right now, based on what Wade's said, that last bullpen spot would go to Ryan Houston.  IMO, Sampson is either in the rotation or AAA, barring a collapse by or injury to one of the other guys I mentioned for the bullpen.

[David in Jackson]

Pretty interesting that he hit on all those things so well, but given that the Astros had made ovetures for Tejada before, makes this a pretty easy mark.  If they were interested in him before, you have to believe that Drayton was involved, because of the contract the team would add.  So while the GM might have changed, I am sure the owner still had interest on some level.

And looking at the Astros trade chips, the was nothing other than their minor league pitchers.  So that seems kind of obvious too.

Not much insight here, but looking back I can't say I saw THIS much turn over of players from last year to this.

I was throwing together the projected 25-man roster, and while we have discussed who we think the favorites for some of the holes are, I tried to only consider those that were under contract or offered arbitration, to get an idea of what was still open for debate vs what was pretty set.

Positon players were obvious:
C: Towles (Asumus will be opening day, but mostly back-up)
1B: Berkman
2B: Matsui
3B: Wigginton
SS: Tejada
LF: Lee
CF: Bourn
RF: Pence

Bench: Ausmus, Blum, Loretta, <open>, <open> 
Most around here feel those two open spots are Abercrombie and Cruz Jr.

Starters:
Oswalt
<open>
Rodriguez
Backe
Williams

Lots of debate over who is going to fill the open spot, but most feel that player is not on the roster yet.

Bullpen:
Valverde
Villiareal
Brocail
Geary
Sampson
<open>
<open>

While Geary and Sampson both might not be 100%, they seem to be in the "it's your job to lose" type position instead of having to "earn" a spot.  Tons of names potential for the open slots, including those not on the roster yet (FAs).

Also people have been wondering about the payroll, and that might (or might not) be a concern, but just think, Lee is going to get a $6 Million dollar raise in 09, and the two big ticket acquistions this year are both still under contract then too, so no matter what the payroll is this year, next year could be worse (although Woody and his $6.25 Million could come off the books if the option is declined).

That lack of OF depth (especially considering Bourn's lack of experience) is pretty frightening.

[Jacksonian]

That lack of OF depth (especially considering Bourn's lack of experience) is pretty frightening.

Wade is banking pretty heavily on Yordany Ramirez developing into a leadoff hitter.

[Froback]

Forgot about the Rule V additions.  So that one makes sense.  I guess I favor Sampson because I know him.  I don't have any first hand experience with Houston to be sure what he brings and if that is/is not better than Sampson.  Mclemore makes sense being lefty and all, and not been terrible.  So having two lefties would be nice, assuming they are not Gallo types.

So that means more spots are actually spoken for then I listed.  Almost to the point of only missing a #2 starter from 25-man roster.  Might actually see the Astros go into ST with 0 rosters spots up for grabs this year (although I am sure they will claim there are).

[Froback]

That lack of OF depth (especially considering Bourn's lack of experience) is pretty frightening.

And you thought last year had better depth???

[Jacksonian]

Forgot about the Rule V additions.  So that one makes sense.  I guess I favor Sampson because I know him.  I don't have any first hand experience with Houston to be sure what he brings and if that is/is not better than Sampson.  Mclemore makes sense being lefty and all, and not been terrible.  So having two lefties would be nice, assuming they are not Gallo types.

So that means more spots are actually spoken for then I listed.  Almost to the point of only missing a #2 starter from 25-man roster.  Might actually see the Astros go into ST with 0 rosters spots up for grabs this year (although I am sure they will claim there are).

McLemore and Wright are much better than Gallo.

If you check astros.com for the article noting Houston's signing I think it talks about what he throws.

I think the bullpen is still open though to some extent.  If someone steps up in ST that person could take a spot that we're thinking is covered right now.  As much as it pains me to say, actual performance matters more than our rhetoric.

[jaklewein]

Don't forget about Nieve in terms of a rotation spot.  I listened to Ricky Bennett on the radio last night...He said they were fine with a rotation of Oswalt, Wandy, Backe, Woody and Sampson...and added that Paulino and Nieve would be in the mix as well.  I was happy to finally hear his name mentioned.  Should be good news.

[Jacksonian]

Don't forget about Nieve in terms of a rotation spot.  I listened to Ricky Bennett on the radio last night...He said they were fine with a rotation of Oswalt, Wandy, Backe, Woody and Sampson...and added that Paulino and Nieve would be in the mix as well.  I was happy to finally hear his name mentioned.  Should be good news.

RE: Nieve.  They aren't talking about his recovery in specifics.  I have not heard whether he's even throwing or not.  Or if he is, how well.

And, that is one weakass rotation.

[VirtualBob]

Don't forget about Nieve in terms of a rotation spot.  I listened to Ricky Bennett on the radio last night...He said they were fine with a rotation of Oswalt, Wandy, Backe, Woody and Sampson...and added that Paulino and Nieve would be in the mix as well.  I was happy to finally hear his name mentioned.  Should be good news.

I'm betting that is what they open with.  Nieve (proving self after injury) and Paulino (no AAA experience yet) will head the rotation at RR and be ready for an early call-up if needed.  I would not be surprised to find a few AAAA arms in RR this year, either.  I expect that even if Prior is signed he will spend some time in RR on a rehab assignment. 

The rest of the internal candidates (Reineke, Miller & Douglass most likely) are very unlikely to see Houston this year (if at all).

[toddthebod]

And you thought last year had better depth???

On the free agent market, I wonder if the Astros might find a place for Luis Gonzalez.  He's not someone I would relish using in the outfield because of his arm.  But he has a nice bat.  He's left-handed.  He has some power.  He's a former Astro.  And he might provide leadership on this team as well.  And I don't think that Gonzo is going to find a full-time gig as a starting outfielder at this point.  If the Astros are really looking at 2008 and 09 as their target years, he mught make a lot of sense.

[Jacksonian]

I'm betting that is what they open with.  Nieve (proving self after injury) and Paulino (no AAA experience yet) will head the rotation at RR and be ready for an early call-up if needed.  I would not be surprised to find a few AAAA arms in RR this year, either.  I expect that even if Prior is signed he will spend some time in RR on a rehab assignment. 

The rest of the internal candidates (Reineke, Miller & Douglass most likely) are very unlikely to see Houston this year (if at all).

Rule 5 draftee Norito will be there as well.  Also, IMO, recent signee Jack Cassel will be there too.

[VirtualBob]

Rule 5 draftee Norito will be there as well.  Also, IMO, recent signee Jack Cassel will be there too.

I had Norrito slated for the BP (though I don't recall why off the top of my head).  I forgot about Cassel.  My guess is that both of them have at least as a high a ceiling as Reineke and probably higher.

[Jacksonian]

I had Norrito slated for the BP (though I don't recall why off the top of my head).  I forgot about Cassel.  My guess is that both of them have at least as a high a ceiling as Reineke and probably higher.

Reineke throws harder and has a good slider.  He's definitely a reliever though.  Cassel is a lot like Sampson.  Reineke has better stuff than Norrito.  They've all pretty much reached their ceilings.

[VirtualBob]

They've all pretty much reached their ceilings.

I was afraid so.  I watched Reineke a lot last summer ... I did like his hard slider, but he did not seem to dominate the way he would need to to move up the ladder.

[Froback]

RE: Nieve.  They aren't talking about his recovery in specifics.  I have not heard whether he's even throwing or not.  Or if he is, how well.

And, that is one weakass rotation.

While I agree it is not very strong, IF those starters all stay healthy they are likely to be combined an average of 6 IP per start, which would actually be more than the starters did as a group last year.

Now from a quality standpoint, I agree, they are probably one of the lower tier starting staffs.

But if they do give the Astros 6 IP per start, that means 486 IP will fall to the bullpen (assuming 9 IP per game average, which isn't that much less than the 9.04 IP the Astros averaged last year).  The 486 IP is less than the 507 they pitched last year.  So this team might actually be better from that standpoint.

This all makes the HUGE assumption that the starters all stay healthy and they produce at least their recent career number of IP.  (Roy at 7 IP, Sampson at 5, the other 3 at 6).

I found it really intersting that the Astros last year had about dead center in average of bullpen IP at 507 (17th out of 30 teams, ML average was 509 and NL average was 524 IP).

[jasonact]

And, that is one weakass rotation.

At this stage, I agree with you, but I wonder what Wandy and/or Backe might do this season. Both have sown flashes of brilliance in the past, not ace-type briliance, but the kind that would work for a #2 starter if sustained over the course of an entire season. I was very impressed with Wandy when he was on at home, if he can work those kinds of starts over even 1/2 of his road games, he'd be a great #3. Backe, even going back to his start in the 2004 NLCS, has been amazing at times. He looked really good in limited action last September. If he realizes that over a full season, he could be an adequate #2.

Of course, the Astros can't count on either happening, and it's still a weak rotation on paper. They both could implode, and I agree that they aren't at that level yet. But if their past success could work over the course of the entire season, this could be a very good rotation.