Author Topic: Done deal  (Read 13871 times)


ValpoCory

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2007, 05:43:11 am »
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JimR

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2007, 11:57:04 am »
If he's our guy, then he's my guy. He's an upgrade from Burke. I like SmithWade. Go Astros.

i guess this is my only place where i can rely to Arky's gatling gun shots. nothing personal against your post, Mr. H.

OBP is interesting, perhaps, but it looks backwards. there is no context, and it does not take into account the player's capabilities. OBP is only one of the attributes of an ideal #2. this is just me talking, but when i heard about the Astros' plan for 2B/#2, i was most excited about Castillo and Matsui. not so much Iguchi b/c i think he probably has enough pop to hit #6 on a pretty good team. i thought both of the others CAN do the things i would want a number 2 to do--bunt, hit and run, make productive outs (moving Bourn from 2nd to 3rd with less than two outs), handle the bat well enough to be able to take pitches while Bourn runs and to put the ball in play after he steals, and enough speed to steal and to beat out infield hits, move up 2 bases on every hit, and avoid GIDP. when i watch players actually play games, i try to determine what their skills would allow them to do IF they do what i ask them to do. i do not condemn players for their past failures if i think they have the skills to do what i will ask of them on my team. i have personal examples of both successes and failures in my personal experience, but you do not want to hear about them.

i do not care what Matsui's OBP was, and i think a statement such as "he makes too many outs at the top of the lineup" is asinine and myopic. many outs that hurt OBP actually help the team in the context of the game. that is my basic problem with the Rotoworld folks here--whether they have been posting for 6 days or 6 years--they believe that numbers alone define a player, and they totally ignore or think irrelevant the context of the player and his relationship to his prior team/manager and to his development as a player. the only team that matters now is the Astros, and all i care about is whether he does what they ask him to do at #2. Noe's exasperated post in the locked thread was both eloquent, and right on target. he has said many times that if Bourn can do what they think he can, Matsui will benefit greatly. that is so true.

my spectacular failures at predicting the future are well documented. you do not know of some of the others, which were equally spectacular. the difference between me and the geeks, however, is that i base my evaluations/judgments/statements on what i see them do for as much time as i am allowed to do that. i say what i see, not what a column of past history numbers says. what they did last year or in the past is irrelevant to me unless i know what they were asked to do or to work on. choose whichever system works for you, but apparently the Astros believe that Matsui has the skills to succeed IF he does what they ask him to do. posting on here that the Astros did not follow "sound statistical analysis" in trying to sign Matsui makes me laugh. do you want to try to follow a team and to try to understand why the team makes decisions or do you want to show us that you are smarter than everyone else? i stole that question from pravata, but i think he's on target. the Astros made this decision, and Matsui is on the team. what are the reasons?

btw, Arky, my application is in with a couple of folks who think i could help. things would have to break perfectly for me to make that happen. i am, of course, not expecting it to happen, but it could.

carry on. i hope i don't get this one locked, too, and i wish the other had not been.



« Last Edit: December 02, 2007, 12:20:33 pm by JimR »
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Mr. Happy

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2007, 12:32:39 pm »
Well stated. Coach, we see eye to eye.
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2007, 03:44:36 pm »
« Last Edit: December 02, 2007, 03:54:45 pm by BatGirl »
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2007, 03:45:00 pm »
JimR, this is why I come to this site....I love getting the knowledge from a guy like yourself.  That post must have taken 3 hours for you to type (usually you go with one liners).  Thanks for taking the time.

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #7 on: December 02, 2007, 05:22:18 pm »
Good deal, let's get some pitching.

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #8 on: December 02, 2007, 06:04:57 pm »
People who cannot recognize a palpable absurdity are very much in the way of civilization. Agnes Rupellier

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Arky Vaughan

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #9 on: December 02, 2007, 06:18:46 pm »
i guess this is my only place where i can rely to Arky's gatling gun shots. nothing personal against your post, Mr. H.

OBP is interesting, perhaps, but it looks backwards. there is no context, and it does not take into account the player's capabilities. OBP is only one of the attributes of an ideal #2. this is just me talking, but when i heard about the Astros' plan for 2B/#2, i was most excited about Castillo and Matsui. not so much Iguchi b/c i think he probably has enough pop to hit #6 on a pretty good team. i thought both of the others CAN do the things i would want a number 2 to do--bunt, hit and run, make productive outs (moving Bourn from 2nd to 3rd with less than two outs), handle the bat well enough to be able to take pitches while Bourn runs and to put the ball in play after he steals, and enough speed to steal and to beat out infield hits, move up 2 bases on every hit, and avoid GIDP. when i watch players actually play games, i try to determine what their skills would allow them to do IF they do what i ask them to do. i do not condemn players for their past failures if i think they have the skills to do what i will ask of them on my team. i have personal examples of both successes and failures in my personal experience, but you do not want to hear about them.

i do not care what Matsui's OBP was, and i think a statement such as "he makes too many outs at the top of the lineup" is asinine and myopic. many outs that hurt OBP actually help the team in the context of the game. that is my basic problem with the Rotoworld folks here--whether they have been posting for 6 days or 6 years--they believe that numbers alone define a player, and they totally ignore or think irrelevant the context of the player and his relationship to his prior team/manager and to his development as a player. the only team that matters now is the Astros, and all i care about is whether he does what they ask him to do at #2. Noe's exasperated post in the locked thread was both eloquent, and right on target. he has said many times that if Bourn can do what they think he can, Matsui will benefit greatly. that is so true.

my spectacular failures at predicting the future are well documented. you do not know of some of the others, which were equally spectacular. the difference between me and the geeks, however, is that i base my evaluations/judgments/statements on what i see them do for as much time as i am allowed to do that. i say what i see, not what a column of past history numbers says. what they did last year or in the past is irrelevant to me unless i know what they were asked to do or to work on. choose whichever system works for you, but apparently the Astros believe that Matsui has the skills to succeed IF he does what they ask him to do. posting on here that the Astros did not follow "sound statistical analysis" in trying to sign Matsui makes me laugh. do you want to try to follow a team and to try to understand why the team makes decisions or do you want to show us that you are smarter than everyone else? i stole that question from pravata, but i think he's on target. the Astros made this decision, and Matsui is on the team. what are the reasons?

btw, Arky, my application is in with a couple of folks who think i could help. things would have to break perfectly for me to make that happen. i am, of course, not expecting it to happen, but it could.

carry on. i hope i don't get this one locked, too, and i wish the other had not been.

I sincerely hope you get serious consideration, Jim, because that would be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. The only drawback for the rest of us is that you wouldn't be able to share inside information anymore.

To correct the record, I am not condemning Matsui for what he has done. In addition, I never claimed numbers alone define a player, and I very clearly stated that past performance does not necessitate future performance. Nor did I accuse the Astros of failing to follow sound statistical analysis. If this is what you gathered from my posts, then you weren't reading very carefully. Where I strongly disagree with you is in pretending that past performance has no or little correlation with future performance. Matsui's past trouble getting on base isn't definitive of what he will do for the Astros, but it isn't irrelevant either.

I won't argue with you anymore about this, as Matsui has a better chance of leading the league in OBP next season than you or I have of changing each other's minds. I agree with Mr. Happy's post above. I hope Matsui makes my pointing out his past performance look as irrelevant as you think it is.

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #10 on: December 03, 2007, 09:19:48 am »
I sincerely hope you get serious consideration, Jim, because that would be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. The only drawback for the rest of us is that you wouldn't be able to share inside information anymore.

To correct the record, I am not condemning Matsui for what he has done. In addition, I never claimed numbers alone define a player, and I very clearly stated that past performance does not necessitate future performance. Nor did I accuse the Astros of failing to follow sound statistical analysis. If this is what you gathered from my posts, then you weren't reading very carefully. Where I strongly disagree with you is in pretending that past performance has no or little correlation with future performance. Matsui's past trouble getting on base isn't definitive of what he will do for the Astros, but it isn't irrelevant either.

I won't argue with you anymore about this, as Matsui has a better chance of leading the league in OBP next season than you or I have of changing each other's minds. I agree with Mr. Happy's post above. I hope Matsui makes my pointing out his past performance look as irrelevant as you think it is.

right. i'm willfully ignorant and can't read for comprehension. revise your posts all you want. more folks than i know what you said--"too many outs at the top of the lineup."
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #11 on: December 03, 2007, 09:44:52 am »
I'm sure JimR will tell me i am out of my leauge or Fuck off rookie but:
"too many outs in the top of the line up" is a bad thing! I know there are good outs and bad outs, but I also know that getting on base is NEVER bad it is allways good.
And baseball is about numbers so saying they are irrelivant is "naive and myopic"
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #12 on: December 03, 2007, 09:48:49 am »
I'm sure JimR will tell me i am out of my leauge or Fuck off rookie but:
"too many outs in the top of the line up" is a bad thing! I know there are good outs and bad outs, but I also know that getting on base is NEVER bad it is allways good.
And baseball is about numbers so saying they are irrelivant is "naive and myopic"


Baseball is about consistently scoring more runs than the other team.   

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #13 on: December 03, 2007, 09:49:11 am »
And baseball is about numbers so saying they are irrelivant is "naive and myopic"

The only numbers that matter are the numbers in the run column at the end of the game.

And OBP will not tell that whole story.

Is Matsui the same as Craig Biggio in his prime?  Fuck no.  But I'd love to hear where that player was that we're missing out on to play Matsui.
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #14 on: December 03, 2007, 09:50:10 am »
I'm sure JimR will tell me i am out of my leauge or Fuck off rookie but:
"too many outs in the top of the line up" is a bad thing! I know there are good outs and bad outs, but I also know that getting on base is NEVER bad it is allways good.
And baseball is about numbers so saying they are irrelivant is "naive and myopic"


you do not have a clue. baseball is a game that generates numbers, but the game is not "about numbers."
« Last Edit: December 03, 2007, 09:56:13 am by JimR »
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #15 on: December 03, 2007, 09:57:51 am »
Baseball is about consistently scoring more runs than the other team.   

This is true, in a sense, but scoring more/allowing fewer both contribute to "out-scoring" one's opponent.   I know you know this, but there are some in the back of the class who are having a hard time comprehending this to the full extent of it's meaning. 
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #16 on: December 03, 2007, 09:59:09 am »
But I'd love to hear where that player was that we're missing out on to play Matsui.

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #17 on: December 03, 2007, 10:02:05 am »
you do not have a clue. baseball is a game that generates numbers, but the game is not "about numbers."

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MikeyBoy

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #18 on: December 03, 2007, 10:07:21 am »
OBP is interesting, perhaps, but it looks backwards. there is no context, and it does not take into account the player's capabilities. OBP is only one of the attributes of an ideal #2. this is just me talking, but when i heard about the Astros' plan for 2B/#2, i was most excited about Castillo and Matsui. not so much Iguchi b/c i think he probably has enough pop to hit #6 on a pretty good team. i thought both of the others CAN do the things i would want a number 2 to do--bunt, hit and run, make productive outs (moving Bourn from 2nd to 3rd with less than two outs), handle the bat well enough to be able to take pitches while Bourn runs and to put the ball in play after he steals, and enough speed to steal and to beat out infield hits, move up 2 bases on every hit, and avoid GIDP. when i watch players actually play games, i try to determine what their skills would allow them to do IF they do what i ask them to do. i do not condemn players for their past failures if i think they have the skills to do what i will ask of them on my team. i have personal examples of both successes and failures in my personal experience, but you do not want to hear about them.

i do not care what Matsui's OBP was, and i think a statement such as "he makes too many outs at the top of the lineup" is asinine and myopic. many outs that hurt OBP actually help the team in the context of the game. that is my basic problem with the Rotoworld folks here--whether they have been posting for 6 days or 6 years--they believe that numbers alone define a player, and they totally ignore or think irrelevant the context of the player and his relationship to his prior team/manager and to his development as a player. the only team that matters now is the Astros, and all i care about is whether he does what they ask him to do at #2. Noe's exasperated post in the locked thread was both eloquent, and right on target. he has said many times that if Bourn can do what they think he can, Matsui will benefit greatly. that is so true.

my spectacular failures at predicting the future are well documented. you do not know of some of the others, which were equally spectacular. the difference between me and the geeks, however, is that i base my evaluations/judgments/statements on what i see them do for as much time as i am allowed to do that. i say what i see, not what a column of past history numbers says. what they did last year or in the past is irrelevant to me unless i know what they were asked to do or to work on. choose whichever system works for you, but apparently the Astros believe that Matsui has the skills to succeed IF he does what they ask him to do. posting on here that the Astros did not follow "sound statistical analysis" in trying to sign Matsui makes me laugh. do you want to try to follow a team and to try to understand why the team makes decisions or do you want to show us that you are smarter than everyone else? i stole that question from pravata, but i think he's on target. the Astros made this decision, and Matsui is on the team. what are the reasons?

btw, Arky, my application is in with a couple of folks who think i could help. things would have to break perfectly for me to make that happen. i am, of course, not expecting it to happen, but it could.


Jim, well said and good luck.

The other angle to this discussion that counters OBP is Matsui's base running ability. Even ignoring productive outs, if Matsui gets on base a couple times less than player x, but goes first to third, first to home, second to home at higher % than player x, isn't he (Matsui) more valuable at scoring runs, even with a lower OBP?
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #19 on: December 03, 2007, 10:11:39 am »
This is true, in a sense, but scoring more/allowing fewer both contribute to "out-scoring" one's opponent.   I know you know this, but there are some in the back of the class who are having a hard time comprehending this to the full extent of it's meaning. 

I don't know why this is so complicated.  The Astros said it "Three words -- pitching, speed and defense.' (Mclane to Smith) I said 'Where's hitting?' He said 'If you do those other three right, the hitting will work out..."  Do we think they were kidding?  All of a sudden they're going to say, "but hey, Tal, have you heard of this OBP thing?"

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #20 on: December 03, 2007, 10:12:21 am »
Jim, well said and good luck.

The other angle to this discussion that counters OBP is Matsui's base running ability. Even ignoring productive outs, if Matsui gets on base a couple times less than player x, but goes first to third, first to home, second to home at higher % than player x, isn't he (Matsui) more valuable at scoring runs, even with a lower OBP?

This was one of the most frustrating aspects of the Astros last season. 

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #21 on: December 03, 2007, 10:19:15 am »
you do not have a clue. baseball is a game that generates numbers, but the game is not "about numbers."

so correct.

numbers are 100% accurate representations of the past.  they do nothing to predict the future.  and, as has been pointed out, numbers alone do not tell the complete story of all the variables and opportunities there within.

talent is talent, is talent, is talent.

he's got it, and now we've got him.
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Limey

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #22 on: December 03, 2007, 10:19:37 am »
This was one of the most frustrating aspects of the Astros last season. 

Never forget, t'was the season in which they got a hit with the bases loaded, and failed to score a run.
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #23 on: December 03, 2007, 10:20:19 am »
so correct.

numbers are 100% accurate representations of the past.  they do nothing to predict the future.  and, as has been pointed out, numbers alone do not tell the complete story of all the variables and opportunities there within.

talent is talent, is talent, is talent.

he's got it, and now we've got him.

Yep.  It's business time!
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #24 on: December 03, 2007, 10:22:32 am »
Yep.  It's business time!

nominate for astros 2008 slogan.
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #25 on: December 03, 2007, 10:24:14 am »
nominate for astros 2008 slogan.

"Happy endings, guaranteed."

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #26 on: December 03, 2007, 10:28:25 am »
"Happy endings, guaranteed."

Now that Lamb has gone, "We're gonna need more wax!" is off the table.
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #27 on: December 03, 2007, 10:29:40 am »
Never forget, t'was the season in which they got a hit with the bases loaded, and failed to score a run.

Ugh. I had forgotten about that.
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #28 on: December 03, 2007, 10:29:51 am »
"Happy endings, guaranteed."

A good slogan encourages people to come TO the game.
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #29 on: December 03, 2007, 10:32:12 am »
nominate for astros 2008 slogan.

Official Kiwi Acoustic Folk Parody Duo of OWA:  Flight of the Conchords
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #30 on: December 03, 2007, 10:33:54 am »
Official Kiwi Acoustic Folk Parody Duo of OWA:  Flight of the Conchords

Ok, good, I wasn't the only one thinking about that skit in reference to "it's business time."
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #31 on: December 03, 2007, 10:34:55 am »
Ok, good, I wasn't the only one thinking about that skit in reference to "it's business time."

Given BatGirl's avatar...
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #32 on: December 03, 2007, 11:04:18 am »
Does that make Bartolo Colon the Hiphopopotomous?
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #33 on: December 03, 2007, 11:10:20 am »
This was one of the most frustrating aspects of the Astros last season. 

Home to first, first to second, second to third, third to dugout, dugout to field for more defensive satire. Somewhere in there, a runner was tagged out doing something stupid. A glorious brand of station-to-station baseball.
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #34 on: December 03, 2007, 11:23:12 am »
Given BatGirl's avatar...

yes, i did catch the reference!
i know what you're really sayin', baby...

and thanks, limey - now i'm going to have it in my head for the rest of the day!


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Re: Done deal
« Reply #35 on: December 03, 2007, 01:32:57 pm »
And baseball is about numbers so saying they are irrelivant is "naive and myopic"

Baseball is about winning.  Numbers contribute to the winning, but the numbers have context.  Hence the disagreement in the very basic foundation is evident.  If you have a foundation that "baseball is about numbers", then it's never going to amount to anything to have a discussion with you about "skills" or "approach" because those things mean absolutely nothing to you.  Numbers do not quantify "approach" or "skill" (Bat control, bunting, hitting behind a runner to move him from first to third, et. al.), but that then does not mean "approach" and "skill" are not a very relevant part of baseball.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2007, 01:46:53 pm by Noe in Austin »

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #36 on: December 03, 2007, 01:42:40 pm »
Jim, well said and good luck.

The other angle to this discussion that counters OBP is Matsui's base running ability. Even ignoring productive outs, if Matsui gets on base a couple times less than player x, but goes first to third, first to home, second to home at higher % than player x, isn't he (Matsui) more valuable at scoring runs, even with a lower OBP?

This was Biggio's argument consistently when asked about his OBP.  He felt he was contributing to the team's overall success in winning baseball games when he was scoring over 100 runs per season.  It wasn't OBP that defined in his mind that success.  It is what you just mentioned above.

And to tell the truth, I thought Biggio was done as a ballplayer about five years before he really was done.  I summized that he had lost a step and also a little off his bat speed, both horrible things for a leadoff, #2 type of player.  Ironically, Arky was the first one to jump on me for publically stating that Biggio was done in 1999.  Arky was right and I was severely wrong.

Why?

Because Biggio redefined himself as a leadoff to do what he *specifically* said was his contribution to winning: score runs (over 100 per season).  To compensate for lack of bat speed, Biggio redefined his giant leg kick (sacrificing power in return for getting on base and scoring more runs).  He cheated on defense to make up for his loss of foot speed and of course picked and chose when to run effectively.  So he wasn't the same Biggio in 2001 and years after that than he was in 1999.  He did what he had to to stay at the top of the lineup, although his OBP wasn't the greatest you ever saw (and steadily declined every year).

Any way, the goals for the top of the lineup are set and they work within the parameters of those goals.  Over 100 runs scored by leadoff may or may not be one of them, just like over 100 runs driven in by the cleanup may be one of that lineup positions goals.  We will know soon enough what goals they're setting for each lineup position because they like to share those things during a season.

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #37 on: December 03, 2007, 01:52:01 pm »
Baseball isn't about numbers. Numbers are simply descriptors of what happens on the field, whether the number of times a player reaches base or makes an out, the number of runs a team scores or allows or, most important, the number of games a team wins or loses. Numbers for their own sake are meaningless. The reason numbers such as the frequency with which a player reaches base or makes an out are imporant is that they correlate with winning and losing.

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #38 on: December 03, 2007, 01:55:14 pm »
Baseball isn't about numbers. Numbers are simply descriptors of what happens on the field, whether the number of times a player reaches base or makes an out, the number of runs a team scores or allows or, most important, the number of games a team wins or loses. Numbers for their own sake are meaningless. The reason numbers such as the frequency with which a player reaches base or makes an out are imporant is that they correlate with winning and losing.

making an out also correlates with winning quite often.
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #39 on: December 03, 2007, 02:02:22 pm »
Baseball is about winning.  Numbers contribute to the winning, but the numbers have context.  Hence the disagreement in the very basic foundation is evident.  If you have a foundation that "baseball is about numbers", then it's never going to amount to anything to have a discussion with you about "skills" or "approach" because those things mean absolutely nothing to you.  Numbers do not quantify "approach" or "skill" (Bat control, bunting, hitting behind a runner to move him from first to third, et. al.), but that then does not mean "approach" and "skill" are not a very relevant part of baseball.
"Number contribute to winning" thus not irrelivant!!
How would you have "skill" measured if not by numbers? as I stated before I understand that there is such a thing as a"good out" and  IMO a players "approach" to the game is relevant, i never said it wasn't. But baseball genertates numbers for a reason, so players can show evidence of the skills required to win, which I understand is the bottom line.
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #40 on: December 03, 2007, 02:04:03 pm »
The reason numbers such as the frequency with which a player reaches base or makes an out are imporant is that they correlate with winning and losing.

Correlates, not causes.  It is unfortunate that so many believe that the statistics are the causes of wins and losses.
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #41 on: December 03, 2007, 02:06:58 pm »
Correlates, not causes.  It is unfortunate that so many believe that the statistics are the causes of wins and losses.

how many grounders to SS would you take with a runner at 3rd and less than two outs? hurts the OBP, doncha know.
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #42 on: December 03, 2007, 02:12:51 pm »
Baseball isn't about numbers. Numbers are simply descriptors of what happens on the field, whether the number of times a player reaches base or makes an out, the number of runs a team scores or allows or, most important, the number of games a team wins or loses. Numbers for their own sake are meaningless. The reason numbers such as the frequency with which a player reaches base or makes an out are imporant is that they correlate with winning and losing.

I agree with everything you just said.  But I would amend what you said with a blurb about "context" because numbers without context have seriously flaws of being either overstated as pointers to a problems or even under evaluated as contributors.  The lineup construction of a team is basically the context and the point being made here all along.  At the end of the day, we all agree that Matsui has to have a better OBP but it doesn't mean that if he doesn't that he'll be a bust towards a *winning team* environment in Houston.  One needs only to see the context of how he can contribute to see that it can happen and we don't need numbers to tell us that it has a good chance of happening *IF* the roles defined for each and every player executes his role.

For instance, Adam Everett has been a #7 or #8 hitter for about four years now.  In said role, he's asked to do certain things, the least of which is to drive in runs.  However, because of the huge loss of productivity from others manning higher middle of the lineup positions, AE had to adjust his game and really hurt his ability to do his job in his lineup position as it was defined.  That expansion of his role to drive in runs means you swing the bat and that then lowers your OBP at the bottom of the lineup.  And if you're hitting in front of the pitcher, having an agressive approach (because you cannot allow that a pitcher will drive in runs sitting over there at third base) is going to cost you a little with major league quality pitchers.  You know not to swing at pitches that are borderline if you're trying to get on base, but if your lineup positon is redefined to "drive in runs, we need you", then you're going to swing. 

So if anyone points exclusively to AE's numbers and says "wow, look at those horrible OBP numbers", without the context of how he had to redefine his approach to include driving in runs and not leaving that to the pitcher, then it's hard to just accept as the entire story.

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #43 on: December 03, 2007, 02:17:21 pm »
"Number contribute to winning" thus not irrelivant!!

Winning is relevant and everything that contributes to it are the factors, but cannot be singular as you seemed to have pointed out.  "And baseball is about numbers" sounded very closed minded and shallow to me, very singular so in that context, yes, I have a problem with it.  If that *isn't* what you mean't then sorry, but it did strike me as odd.
 
Quote
How would you have "skill" measured if not by numbers?

Hummmmmm... watch a game?

Quote
as I stated before I understand that there is such a thing as a"good out" and  IMO a players "approach" to the game is relevant, i never said it wasn't. But baseball genertates numbers for a reason, so players can show evidence of the skills required to win, which I understand is the bottom line.

Winning is the bottomline, not numbers.  Baseball, played at it's best is clearly about nine men doing what they have to do to win a game, a series, a playoff, a championship.  If a man has to hit behind a runner to move him from first to third, the numbers being a bottomline says *failure*.  But if that moving the runner from first to third is the cause for the winning run to score in a tie game, bottom of the ninth, game seven of the world series... I'm calling it "success".

That is where we differ.  I like to win.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2007, 02:19:39 pm by Noe in Austin »

Jacksonian

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #44 on: December 03, 2007, 02:22:50 pm »
how many grounders to SS would you take with a runner at 3rd and less than two outs? hurts the OBP, doncha know.

In October, 1999? 

Ack I can't believe I wrote that.
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #45 on: December 03, 2007, 02:25:29 pm »

How would you have "skill" measured if not by numbers?

this demonstrates how clueless you are.
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #46 on: December 03, 2007, 02:28:22 pm »
Goin' for a bus ride.

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #47 on: December 03, 2007, 02:50:29 pm »
How would you have "skill" measured if not by numbers?
Watching the game.

Two shortstops.  One has a fielding percentage of .988, the other is .980.  Who is better?

Well the .988 guy has horrific range, but is not charged with errors, because of said lack of range.

The .980 guy has fabulous range, gets to balls the other SS could never dream of, but gets charged with more errors, because, well, the scorer expects him to make the more difficult play.

Again, who is better?  Numbers do not always tell the story.

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #48 on: December 03, 2007, 02:56:50 pm »
Watching the game.

Two shortstops.  One has a fielding percentage of .988, the other is .980.  Who is better?

Well the .988 guy has horrific range, but is not charged with errors, because of said lack of range.

The .980 guy has fabulous range, gets to balls the other SS could never dream of, but gets charged with more errors, because, well, the scorer expects him to make the more difficult play.

Again, who is better?  Numbers do not always tell the story.



A guy hits 10 bleeders into the outfield hitting in the 8 hole.  All singles but very lucky indeed. 1,000.000 BA

A guy hits 10 line drives, five of which are spectacular plays by the other team to get him out and the other five are atom balls.  He hits in the three hole.  .000 BA

Who has the better skill at hitting a baseball?

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #49 on: December 03, 2007, 03:05:30 pm »
In October, 1999? 

Go to hell.

Sorry, it's reflex when that comes up.
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #50 on: December 03, 2007, 03:06:10 pm »
How would you have "skill" measured if not by numbers? as I stated before I understand that there is such a thing as a"good out" and  IMO a players "approach" to the game is relevant, i never said it wasn't.

Quick - what number points to a "good out"?
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #51 on: December 03, 2007, 03:06:35 pm »
Go to hell.

Sorry, it's reflux when that comes up.

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #52 on: December 03, 2007, 03:14:50 pm »
After reading MoneyBall for the first time, I got into the number crunching side of the game.  But it strikes me that the numbers can't tell you everything because they are always trying to come up with more numbers to provide context (Park adjusted stuff, Iso Power).  My lowly social work educated brain can't wrap around all those numbers. 

Billy Beane was right when he said "We're not selling jeans".  There is more to baseball than just the guy looks like a ball player.  But there is also more than what his numbers add up to be. 

Context is important,  numbers tell part of the story and TRY to operationalize performance but they don't define performance.  By the way the catcher that Beane took so high that was said would start a fire if he wore corduroy pants is still in AAA.  Jeremy Brown is his name.
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Noe

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #53 on: December 03, 2007, 03:15:03 pm »
Quick - what number points to a "good out"?

Or what a major leaguer calls affectionately "a solid out"?  (ie: a line drive that was hit square and on the money, but the other team still got you out.  Also see terms like "I'm hitting a very solid .240").

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #54 on: December 03, 2007, 03:19:28 pm »
After reading MoneyBall for the first time, I got into the number crunching side of the game.  But it strikes me that the numbers can't tell you everything because they are always trying to come up with more numbers to provide context (Park adjusted stuff, Iso Power).  My lowly social work educated brain can't wrap around all those numbers. 

Billy Beane was right when he said "We're not selling jeans".  There is more to baseball than just the guy looks like a ball player.  But there is also more than what his numbers add up to be. 

Context is important,  numbers tell part of the story and TRY to operationalize performance but they don't define performance.  By the way the catcher that Beane took so high that was said would start a fire if he wore corduroy pants is still in AAA.  Jeremy Brown is his name.

Brown is a very interesting player to watch hit.  He's just about worthless as a field player and can't really do anything other than hit a baseball (can't run, et. al.).  But he's also prone to his own misgivings of wanting to put bat on ball at every turn.  IOW - he can get himself out quite a bit because his head grew two sizes too big after Moneyball.

I'd be surprise to see this guy ever make a major league team unless it is a desperate team in the AL looking for a young DH.

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #55 on: December 03, 2007, 03:33:48 pm »
Brown is a very interesting player to watch hit.  He's just about worthless as a field player and can't really do anything other than hit a baseball (can't run, et. al.).  But he's also prone to his own misgivings of wanting to put bat on ball at every turn.  IOW - he can get himself out quite a bit because his head grew two sizes too big after Moneyball.

I'd be surprise to see this guy ever make a major league team unless it is a desperate team in the AL looking for a young DH.

Yeah, he hit .276 in 94 games with Sacramento last year only K'd every 5 at bats, OPS of 833.  Who wouldn't love to have a catcher like that?  Oh, wait, that's right the A's outrighted him to start the season.  So he was a 1st round supplemental pick who is now 28 years old and has played in 5 MLB games with solid numbers in the minors.  The numbers must not tell the whole story
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #56 on: December 03, 2007, 03:34:53 pm »
Or what a major leaguer calls affectionately "a solid out"?  (ie: a line drive that was hit square and on the money, but the other team still got you out.  Also see terms like "I'm hitting a very solid .240").

A. Huff, for example, had many solid outs for stros in 06.

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #57 on: December 03, 2007, 03:36:36 pm »
Yeah, he hit .276 in 94 games with Sacramento last year only K'd every 5 at bats, OPS of 833.  Who wouldn't love to have a catcher like that?  Oh, wait, that's right the A's outrighted him to start the season.  So he was a 1st round supplemental pick who is now 28 years old and has played in 5 MLB games with solid numbers in the minors.  The numbers must not tell the whole story

I've seen him swing at pitches up in his eyeballs and make contact.  He doesn't really have a limitation of balls he can hit, but are they good pitches to swing at?  I dunno, he makes contact with them and they find holes, but overall a major league pitcher would never throw this kid anything resembling a strike.

Let him get himself out by swinging at pitches over his head.

Arky Vaughan

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #58 on: December 03, 2007, 10:59:32 pm »
The only numbers that matter are the numbers in the run column at the end of the game.

And OBP will not tell that whole story.

Is Matsui the same as Craig Biggio in his prime?  Fuck no.  But I'd love to hear where that player was that we're missing out on to play Matsui.

Where did anybody assert that OBP will tell the whole story about the numbers in the run column at the end of the game? And are you asserting that reaching base doesn't bear a significant relationship to scoring runs? Also, are you asserting that signing Matsui and batting him second is the only available choice the Astros had this offseason?
« Last Edit: December 03, 2007, 11:05:05 pm by Arky Vaughan »

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #59 on: December 03, 2007, 11:04:26 pm »
Jim, well said and good luck.

The other angle to this discussion that counters OBP is Matsui's base running ability. Even ignoring productive outs, if Matsui gets on base a couple times less than player x, but goes first to third, first to home, second to home at higher % than player x, isn't he (Matsui) more valuable at scoring runs, even with a lower OBP?

It depends on how many fewer times he reaches base (and instead makes an out) vs. the number of additional times he takes the extra base. Also, if Matsui bats second ahead of Pence, Berkman and Lee, then every time he makes an out reduces the number of times one or more of the big bats gets an opportunity in that inning.

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #60 on: December 03, 2007, 11:07:17 pm »

Arky Vaughan

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #61 on: December 03, 2007, 11:09:41 pm »
so correct.

numbers are 100% accurate representations of the past.  they do nothing to predict the future.  and, as has been pointed out, numbers alone do not tell the complete story of all the variables and opportunities there within.

So, the record of past performance has nothing to do with what to expect of future performance? And nobody said numbers tell the complete story. But they are useful if limited indicators.

Jacksonian

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #62 on: December 03, 2007, 11:11:37 pm »
Mark Loretta?

Not good enough defensively and not fast enough.  But, you knew that.
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #63 on: December 03, 2007, 11:12:50 pm »
Not good enough defensively and not fast enough.  But, you knew that.

if you have no range and don't get to any balls, you can never make an error, and your fielding percentage will be really really high, and that's all that matters.

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #64 on: December 03, 2007, 11:14:39 pm »
Correlates, not causes.  It is unfortunate that so many believe that the statistics are the causes of wins and losses.

Statistics aren't the cause of anything. They are simply descriptors of performance. They do not exist other than to describe what happened.

The things that they describe -- hitting for average, hitting for power, drawing walks, stealing bases, sacrificing runners over, etc. -- do lead to runs scored, which lead to wins.

If you see that teams with high OBPs and high slugging averages tend to score lots of runs, or teams that allow low OBPs and low slugging averages tend to allow fewer runs, would you not think that there must be some useful relationship there?

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #65 on: December 03, 2007, 11:17:36 pm »
Not good enough defensively and not fast enough.  But, you knew that.

Right. It's a trade off. They chose to go with speed and defense over a hitter likely to reach base more often and likely to hit for more power. But to pretend that they didn't have that choice there is erroneous. They weren't required to make the choice to sign Matsui for what he brings to the table rather than signing Loretta for what he brings to the table.

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #66 on: December 03, 2007, 11:23:29 pm »
Watching the game.

Two shortstops.  One has a fielding percentage of .988, the other is .980.  Who is better?

Well the .988 guy has horrific range, but is not charged with errors, because of said lack of range.

The .980 guy has fabulous range, gets to balls the other SS could never dream of, but gets charged with more errors, because, well, the scorer expects him to make the more difficult play.

Again, who is better?  Numbers do not always tell the story.

This is a poor example in that it relies on a statistic that is notorious for its limitations. The argument is also spurious because it attempts to discredit all statistics by using one of the worst examples of a misleading or highly limited statistic. It is like suggesting that evaluation by observation must be ineffectual in all cases since the evaluation by observation of Billy Beane as a ballplayer was ineffectual.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2007, 11:26:07 pm by Arky Vaughan »

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #67 on: December 03, 2007, 11:27:33 pm »
Quick - what number points to a "good out"?

Sacrifice flies. Sacrifice hits. Runs batted in.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2007, 11:40:43 pm by Arky Vaughan »

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #68 on: December 03, 2007, 11:30:07 pm »
After reading MoneyBall for the first time, I got into the number crunching side of the game.  But it strikes me that the numbers can't tell you everything because they are always trying to come up with more numbers to provide context (Park adjusted stuff, Iso Power).  My lowly social work educated brain can't wrap around all those numbers. 

Billy Beane was right when he said "We're not selling jeans".  There is more to baseball than just the guy looks like a ball player.  But there is also more than what his numbers add up to be. 

Context is important,  numbers tell part of the story and TRY to operationalize performance but they don't define performance.  By the way the catcher that Beane took so high that was said would start a fire if he wore corduroy pants is still in AAA.  Jeremy Brown is his name.

I don't think Beane ever suggested that numbers alone tell the whole story. But he did try to squeeze a competitive advantage out of trends in the numbers that he believed other teams were overlooking. This doesn't strike me as particularly different than the Astros attempting to obtain an edge by taking a look at shorter pitches that other teams overlooked merely because of height.

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #69 on: December 03, 2007, 11:32:53 pm »
A. Huff, for example, had many solid outs for stros in 06.

True, and I suspect that if a few of those solid outs had fallen in for hits, the Astros might've made a more concerted effort to retain his services.

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #70 on: December 03, 2007, 11:46:46 pm »
True, and I suspect that if a few of those solid outs had fallen in for hits, the Astros might've made a more concerted effort to retain his services.

Really?  Aren't you therefor implying that the Astros "might've" believed a more valueable player would have done something to cause those same solid outs to "fall in for hits"?  By Noe's given definition the outcome of those solid outs was merely dictated by luck or happenstance, no?  Ergo, you believe the Astros make player decisions with a player's realitive Luck in mind?  Really?
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #71 on: December 04, 2007, 08:33:26 am »
Give it a rest, Arky. You are approaching Ray K status.your game is numbers, not baseball.
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #72 on: December 04, 2007, 10:18:06 am »
So, the record of past performance has nothing to do with what to expect of future performance?


I don't think that is what was said, because it was a reply to refute what was said earlier about "numbers" as being the sole reason in evaluation of baseball.  At least, that is how it read to many of us.  But to take your point further, a record of past performance is a great starting point for analysis.  And it will give you a good start on what to expect for future performance.  There is nothing wrong with that, and the Astros, most especially Tal Smith, are great at looking at performance stats and making a start of a judgement.  But a complete analysis?  Hardly and that seems to be the point that was in question because of the singular statement made earlier about "baseball" and "numbers".

Back to your point though, because I agree with the premise of using performance stats in this manner... a starting point.  Suffice it to say that context for those stats are very necessary.  I learned from David Rawnsley early on that you have to be able to provide context for stats in order to make proper evaluations.  He was talking about his disdain for certain minor league evaluation websites that used performance stats exclusively.  Without going to watch the player nor evaluate the league, the competition, the fields where they play, et. al., you can't have context for those stats.  For instance, one can look at players in the El Paso team and think they have some great sluggers developing down there.  One trip to watch them play and you'd know that the field in El Paso is a great generator of most said slugging prowess and the players themselves are no great reincarnation of Babe Ruth.  Same thing applies to the pitchers who have to work in those environments, they may not be horrible pitchers as their performance stats may indicate.  They may be pretty good pitchers if you watch them ply their trade and you'd be missing out on promoting a good starter or reliever if all you relied on was stats. 

So how does this work out sometimes?  Well a good balance of performance stats and good old fashion shoe leather scouting works wonders for making final analysis on players.  At least it's an informed decision at that point.  No one that holds observation as a tool to use has disagreed with that as of yet that I can see.  But there does seem to be more of a concern on the part of those who look at numbers that observation goes contrary to what numbers say.  Well no, it does not contrary, it provides context, and that is all it does.  But more and more, stats are being revised again and again to provide more and more context in it of themselves (like park factors, et. al.).  That's great, seems that those who look at stats realize they have to provide context and are willing to work towards that every day.  That is why we get a new acronym to chew on from stat folk because they come up with newer and newer formulas to provide context.

Well, watching a game can do that just as easily and it wouldn't cause all the distress that a signing like Kaz Matsui seems to have with performance stats folk.  Sorry they had to go through the gag reflex... bad Houston Astros for doing that to them.  But a little context would've gone a long way to helping avoid the hairball reaction.  And that is really anyone has said in the last week of this discussion, up to and including this thread and the reaction to the assertion made.

Quote
And nobody said numbers tell the complete story.

"And baseball is about numbers" - Hillbilliken

Quote
But they are useful if limited indicators.

Agreed.  WE ALL AGREE!  Glory be.  Now, if only observation can be given it's due for context, we'd all be able to see Kaz Matsui like the Houston Astros did.  And move right along...

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #73 on: December 04, 2007, 10:29:24 am »
I don't think that is what was said, because ..............................  And move right along...
That's a pretty good summary of about 350 posts

MusicMan

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #74 on: December 04, 2007, 10:33:41 am »
Sacrifice flies. Sacrifice hits. Runs batted in.

Only if they've redefined "sacrifice hits" and I missed the memo.
I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing AstroTurf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, torture of Bud Selig.

Arky Vaughan

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #75 on: December 04, 2007, 11:01:02 am »
Only if they've redefined "sacrifice hits" and I missed the memo.

A sacrifice hit measures a useful out, does it not? You give up an out to advance a runner.

MusicMan

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #76 on: December 04, 2007, 11:05:44 am »
A sacrifice hit measures a useful out, does it not? You give up an out to advance a runner.

All sacrifice hits are productive outs, but not all productive outs are in the categories you mentioned.
I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing AstroTurf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, torture of Bud Selig.

JackAstro

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #77 on: December 04, 2007, 11:06:00 am »
A sacrifice hit measures a useful out, does it not? You give up an out to advance a runner.

Not to speak for MM, but he's likely pointing out that advancing a runner by hitting behind him is not a sacrifice hit, but is a productive out.

eta: oops, too slow.
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Arky Vaughan

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #78 on: December 04, 2007, 11:14:21 am »
Give it a rest, Arky. You are approaching Ray K status. your game is numbers, not baseball.

If you've got a problem with it, Jim, then why don't you carry out your multiple threats to leave the TZ or to put me on ignore?

I've been avoiding responding to your posts the last 24 hours because I've finally become tired of your lying about what others post, of your hypocrisy in blasting others who question the team's moves when you've done the same thing yourself, of your accusations of arrogance masking your own pigheaded conceitedness, of your whining about anklebiters when you're among the worst of the lot and of your generally bullying and prickish attitude that has driven multiple posters from this forum because they were tired of your act.

I'd rather read 10,000 posts from Ray, Nash, Alkie or the host of other posters sick of your sociopathic Internet alter-ego than read another word from you even if you were the commissioner of baseball and knew everything there ever was to know about the game.

Happy trails, Old Man.

Arky Vaughan

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #79 on: December 04, 2007, 11:18:11 am »
All sacrifice hits are productive outs, but not all productive outs are in the categories you mentioned.

No argument there.

Actually, in the 1930s, there was a sacrifice hit statistic that was tallied every time a hitter advanced a runner on an out, and in the 1890s, stolen bases included extra bases taken on hits.

Runners advanced on outs could be reflected in the statistics, just as you could track extra bases taken on hits. This would be useful information, and I wish it were readily available.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2007, 11:28:01 am by Arky Vaughan »

JimR

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #80 on: December 04, 2007, 11:29:59 am »
If you've got a problem with it, Jim, then why don't you carry out your multiple threats to leave the TZ or to put me on ignore?

I've been avoiding responding to your posts the last 24 hours because I've finally become tired of your lying about what others post, of your hypocrisy in blasting others who question the team's moves when you've done the same thing yourself, of your accusations of arrogance masking your own pigheaded conceitedness, of your whining about anklebiters when you're among the worst of the lot and of your generally bullying and prickish attitude that has driven multiple posters from this forum because they were tired of your act.

I'd rather read 10,000 posts from Ray, Nash, Alkie or the host of other posters sick of your sociopathic Internet alter-ego than read another word from you even if you were the commissioner of baseball and knew everything there ever was to know about the game.

Happy trails, Old Man.

i do not put anyone on ignore because if i did, i would miss insulting blasts like this. perhaps your exalted status here entitles you to say things like this to me with impunity; perhaps not. i guess all i can do is hang up and listen.
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Astroholic

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #81 on: December 04, 2007, 11:56:38 am »
True, and I suspect that if a few of those solid outs had fallen in for hits, the Astros might've made a more concerted effort to retain his services.

My point is that A. Huff is more valuable that a player who can not hit it beyond the infield, though the numbers alone would not support this.

hillbillyken

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #82 on: December 04, 2007, 11:58:02 am »
you do not have a clue. baseball is a game that generates numbers, but the game is not "about numbers."
And what pray tell should we do with numbers baseball generates?
Ignore them they are useless right?
They can be of no service at all, so anybody that refers to them must not have a clue about baseball.
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Re: Done deal
« Reply #83 on: December 04, 2007, 11:58:53 am »
And what pray tell should we do with numbers baseball generates?
Ignore them they are useless right?
They can be of no service at all, so anybody that refers to them must not have a clue about baseball.
We should all watch ever game and judge the talent for ourselves.


Who, pray tell, said this?

Bench

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Re: Done deal
« Reply #84 on: December 04, 2007, 12:04:26 pm »
Who, pray tell, said this?

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