Author Topic: Matsui reported to be Astro  (Read 53666 times)

johnstros

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Burzmali

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2007, 11:03:59 pm »
Sigh. I'm sure I'm going to get flamed for this, but isn't Matsui is about as good as Burke's lower end projection? Looking at Matsui away from Coors, 2006 Burke is better, and 2007 Burke is a wash.

Hopefully I'm wrong, but it seems like again the Astros are going to have 4 OBP sinks in the lineup (unless Towles surprises). And I'm guessing they want to bat Matsui 2nd because of his speed, so again the same problem with Biggio with an obp sink at the top of the order. They could mitigate by doing Borun/Berkman/Pence/Lee, but I don't think that's going to happen. I sure hope this works out, because I don't really think this lineup is going to score many runs at all.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2007, 11:11:51 pm »
Sigh. I'm sure I'm going to get flamed for this, but isn't Matsui is about as good as Burke's lower end projection? Looking at Matsui away from Coors, 2006 Burke is better, and 2007 Burke is a wash.

Hopefully I'm wrong, but it seems like again the Astros are going to have 4 OBP sinks in the lineup (unless Towles surprises). And I'm guessing they want to bat Matsui 2nd because of his speed, so again the same problem with Biggio with an obp sink at the top of the order. They could mitigate by doing Borun/Berkman/Pence/Lee, but I don't think that's going to happen. I sure hope this works out, because I don't really think this lineup is going to score many runs at all.

And just what the fuck is Burke's projection? Regardless of ends?

Borun leading off and Berkman batting second? I can't decide which one is dumber.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2007, 11:17:32 pm »
And just what the fuck is Burke's projection? Regardless of ends?

It's still mindboggling to me that people still think Burke is some kind of a prospect.

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TheWizard

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2007, 11:21:57 pm »
It's still mindboggling to me that people still think Burke is some kind of a prospect.


I say we enter the Santana trade talks and offer Burke straight up.  Just get the Twins to consider his ceiling.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #5 on: November 29, 2007, 11:23:16 pm »
It's still mindboggling to me that people still think Burke is some kind of a prospect.


maybe its some kind of subliminal message they had going at mmpus last year.
still going to be interesting to see how Matsui turns out
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #6 on: November 29, 2007, 11:26:44 pm »
I say we enter the Santana trade talks and offer Burke straight up.  Just get the Twins to consider his ceiling.


That's the problem.  Burke's ceiling has been exposed.  Damn they should have gotten something for him when they could have.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #7 on: November 29, 2007, 11:33:02 pm »
It's still mindboggling to me that people still think Burke is some kind of a prospect.



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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #8 on: November 29, 2007, 11:48:50 pm »
rotoworld says 3 years, 15 mil

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #9 on: November 29, 2007, 11:53:41 pm »
If true, then the team is set for some wheeling and dealing at the winter meetings.  They now have the starting lineup set pretty much for the eight positions on the field.  That means that Luke Scott and Chris Burke are now backups.  But they've also gone out and signed several backup types for the outfield and middle infield as well, so looks like this signing means they may just be dealing at the winter meeting.

Means it could get interesting if they're trying to land a starting pitcher.  Wonder who they might be targeting that they maybe have a framework of a deal ready to go if Scott and Burke (and maybe someone else like Albers) are the guys they've freed up to be traded.  Can't be too great a get back, but then again, who knows at this point.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #10 on: November 29, 2007, 11:57:34 pm »
Wonder who they might be targeting that they maybe have a framework of a deal ready to go if Scott and Burke (and maybe someone else like Albers) are the guys they've freed up to be traded.
Bringing up Albers, I wonder how highly Wade values him?
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #11 on: November 30, 2007, 12:02:38 am »
Chasing their tails?

(Ortiz) the Astros will sign free-agent second baseman Kazuo Matsui, a person with knowledge of the negotiations confirmed to the Chronicle.

Justice is getting his information from the Chicago Herald, here's their story

(Chicago Herald) The Astros reportedly have agreed with free-agent second baseman Kaz Matsui on a three-year contract worth $15 million.  http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=86977

"We don't have a deal done with anyone," said Wade. "As has been the case all offseason, when we get a deal done with someone we'll announce it."

Matsui's agent, Arn Tellem has not returned numerous phone calls from the Chronicle in recent weeks.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5340665.html

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #12 on: November 30, 2007, 12:03:00 am »
Bringing up Albers, I wonder how highly Wade values him?

Well, it's not entirely about getting rid of guys.  You can actually like a player very much and still think it's a good idea to trade him.  Why?  Because of two things: 1) You're trying to get something good back in return to fill a hole and 2) You have some surplus already on your club that easily replaces what you're trading away.

My hunch is that in the case of Albers, they have some replacements for him that they think will easily produce the same as Fatty Matty.  Paulino, Guiterrez, Patton and maybe at least two more (Estrada and Nieve) on the very outside.  But three guys who can function the same as Albers is pretty good, meaning you can afford to trade him away if he will help get you back what you desperately need.

A veteran #2, that's what they need.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #13 on: November 30, 2007, 12:03:22 am »
burke really turned me off when he complained when sent down.  last time i checked, you had a solid bonus coming out of college and you get paid close to or over 400K/year to wait your turn.  maybe now you get your chance. 

bourn- CF
matsui- 2B
berkman- 1B
kabong- LF
pence- RF
wigginton- 3B
towles- C
everett- SS

i think that's a lineup i could live with.  i like that wade id'd the positions he wanted to upgrade at and went and secured the talent.




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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #14 on: November 30, 2007, 12:07:37 am »
I think you can read too much into road/home splits.   What if matsui was on a hot streak while at home?  What if his cold streaks coincided with road games? 

His road splits in 2007 are skewed by .22 points of batting average just with 4 hits in 32 at bats at dodger stadium last year, which if you take that away makes him a .271 hitter away from coors not a .249 hitter. In 2006 he only had 131 ab's away from home(sample size issue already) and he hit .180 ish with 4 hits in 22 ab's at petco park which knocked his road splits from .275 ish to .260.    That's where a limited sample size can really skew the numbers.   It's not like he can't hit on the road, he just has a couple road parks where he has dreadful numbers in a season when combined with limited at bats can skew numbers to a large degree.



One thing matsui has done very well the last 2 yrs is hit righties(I doubt burke puts up either of these lines vs RHP):

2006:  .299   .329   .428(201 ab's)
2007:   .291    .348   .409(340 ab's)
« Last Edit: November 30, 2007, 12:12:10 am by DVauthrin »
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #15 on: November 30, 2007, 12:07:58 am »
burke really turned me off when he complained when sent down.

This is perhaps a reason Houston fears what sort of distraction Burke might be (and also Scott, who also had a huge chip on his shoulder when he was sent down in 2006) if he now loses his job because of Matsui.

Burke can be a solid backup guy, so can Scott, but their history is one of brooding and complaining so much when they lose their jobs, it just may not be worth the hassle to keep them around.

I'm just guessing, but I suspect neither will be Houston Astros for very much longer.  Possibly by end of next week when the winter meetings end.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #16 on: November 30, 2007, 12:10:05 am »
3 yrs, $15 million.  Edit: Link now

http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=86977
Quote
Did the Houston Astros steal a free agent away from the Cubs or save the Cubs from themselves?

Am I Cabrera'ing this?
« Last Edit: November 30, 2007, 12:15:00 am by TheWizard »
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dirty steve

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #17 on: November 30, 2007, 12:14:08 am »
I'm just guessing, but I suspect neither will be Houston Astros for very much longer.  Possibly by end of next week when the winter meetings end.
i cant see how they will be.  you already signed a multi-positional guy in blum and have abercrombie, ramirez (although i think he starts at RR) and cheito vieing for the 4th and 5th OF spots.

this justs smells like wade is lining up for a run at a SP.  i know the Tigers have been interested in Scott.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #18 on: November 30, 2007, 12:18:44 am »
I think you can read too much into road/home splits.   What if matsui was on a hot streak while at home?  What if his cold streaks coincided with road games? 

His road splits in 2007 are skewed by .22 points of batting average just with 4 hits in 32 at bats at dodger stadium last year, which if you take that away makes him a .271 hitter away from coors not a .249 hitter. In 2006 he only had 131 ab's away from home(sample size issue already) and he hit .180 ish with 4 hits in 22 ab's at petco park which knocked his road splits from .275 ish to .260.    That's where a limited sample size can really skew the numbers.   It's not like he can't hit on the road, he just has a couple road parks where he has dreadful numbers in a season when combined with limited at bats can skew numbers to a large degree.



One thing matsui has done very well the last 2 yrs is hit righties(I doubt burke puts up either of these lines vs RHP):

2006:  .299   .329   .428(201 ab's)
2007:   .291    .348   .409(340 ab's)

Certainly valid to look at the unbalanced schedule and the advent of having to play so many games at offense suppressing parks like Chavez Ravine and Petco.  Either way, if this Matsui signing is true, they're going to go with a couple of guys in front of Pence, Berkman and Lee that will show if they can do the job of top of the lineup hitters.

It means getting on base and for the #2 having some bat control as well.  Hitting in front of Pence, Berkman and Lee should theoretically allow them to see some pitches to hit.  My hope is that we now have some guys who know how to hit at the top of the lineup as much as anything else.  No swinging for the short porch in left or even right.  Get on base, swing level and watch just how much damage Pence, Berkman and Lee (with some help from Wiggington and on the outside Towles) can do.

It looks like it's set: speed on defense up the middle, speed at the top of the order and bottom, run producers in the middle.  What now needs to flesh out is if the top of the order can get on base to make it all happen.  Should be interesting.

DVauthrin

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #19 on: November 30, 2007, 12:35:50 am »
Certainly valid to look at the unbalanced schedule and the advent of having to play so many games at offense suppressing parks like Chavez Ravine and Petco. 

Well more to my point is with a player getting only 100-200 road at bats, one slump or one park that he had a bad year at can drop his BA down a great deal.    That's why I think it's foolish for anyone to just look at an overall road line and say he can't hit away from coors.   

And all along I thought he had the most risk of the free agent 2b.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2007, 12:37:27 am by DVauthrin »
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dirty steve

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #20 on: November 30, 2007, 12:36:46 am »
the third year scares me a little for some reason.  there might have been another team (cubs?) with a higher annual salary unwilling to commit three years.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #21 on: November 30, 2007, 12:42:34 am »
Either way, if this Matsui signing is true, they're going to go with a couple of guys in front of Pence, Berkman and Lee that will show if they can do the job of top of the lineup hitters.

Yep.  I think they can though, but only time will tell.
It means getting on base and for the #2 having some bat control as well.  Hitting in front of Pence, Berkman and Lee should theoretically allow them to see some pitches to hit.  My hope is that we now have some guys who know how to hit at the top of the lineup as much as anything else.  No swinging for the short porch in left or even right.  Get on base, swing level and watch just how much damage Pence, Berkman and Lee (with some help from Wiggington and on the outside Towles) can do.

Kaz and Bourn are both gap hitters(in Kaz's case sort of a slapper) so I don't think they will play to the boxes.

It looks like it's set: speed on defense up the middle, speed at the top of the order and bottom, run producers in the middle.  What now needs to flesh out is if the top of the order can get on base to make it all happen.  Should be interesting.

Yep, I like the speed at the top concept if bourn/matsui can get on base(I think they will).   It gives a pitcher a lot more to think about and will keep defenses on guard for bunts for hits, hit and run's, steals, you name it.   
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #22 on: November 30, 2007, 12:46:40 am »
"We don't have a deal done with anyone," said Wade. "As has been the case all offseason, when we get a deal done with someone we'll announce it."

This guy Wade is beginning to grow on me.

If AE stays healthy the lineup's defense should be pretty good. Not great, probably, but not terrible like last year's OD lineup. If the team can address the little things such as starting pitching the Astros might be pretty good. The rest of the winter should be very interesting. Wade certainly has some pieces to play with.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #23 on: November 30, 2007, 01:27:41 am »
And just what the fuck is Burke's projection? Regardless of ends?

Borun leading off and Berkman batting second? I can't decide which one is dumber.

Somewhere closer to his 2006 line than 2007, I would think.

What's dumber than that is having somebody with Matsui's obp hitting 2nd.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #24 on: November 30, 2007, 01:35:28 am »
If the team can address the little things such as starting pitching the Astros might be pretty good.
Just that little thing.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #25 on: November 30, 2007, 05:53:48 am »
Kaz is a dud. Not much of an upgrade from Burke. Disappointing. I'd rather see them try Wiggington at 2B and Clank at 3B
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #26 on: November 30, 2007, 06:27:26 am »

this justs smells like wade is lining up for a run at a SP.  i know the Tigers have been interested in Scott.

They also traded for Jaque Jones.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #27 on: November 30, 2007, 06:40:19 am »
Ok, let me get this straight...

We just upgraded big time defensively at 2B right?  On top of that the guy can handle the bat in the 2 hole and has some speed.  All of this for $5M per...that's not bad these days.  Mark me down as happy with the trade.

Also, all the talk as far as SPs goes...is of the Santana, Haren, Bedard variety.  I'm hoping the Astros can come in under the radar a bit and go after Blanton. 

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #28 on: November 30, 2007, 06:59:06 am »
Kaz is a dud. Not much of an upgrade from Burke. Disappointing. I'd rather see them try Wiggington at 2B and Clank at 3B
Amazing. Matsui's defense is outstanding. Perfect number 2 hitter. Proven winner. Hopefully opens the door in Houston for Asian baseball talent. All for less then what we paid Biggio last year. What in the hell has Burke ever proved except that he can whine loudly. I like everything Wade is doing and it continues to be a work in progress.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #29 on: November 30, 2007, 07:27:25 am »
Amazing. Matsui's defense is outstanding. Perfect number 2 hitter. Proven winner. Hopefully opens the door in Houston for Asian baseball talent. All for less then what we paid Biggio last year. What in the hell has Burke ever proved except that he can whine loudly. I like everything Wade is doing and it continues to be a work in progress.


What about Matsui makes him a "perfect number 2 hitter"?

"Proven winner"? Are you kidding me? I never understood the logic of evaluating an individual's skills using a team's success.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #30 on: November 30, 2007, 07:43:56 am »
What about Matsui makes him a "perfect number 2 hitter"?

"Proven winner"? Are you kidding me? I never understood the logic of evaluating an individual's skills using a team's success.
I am not evaluating his skills based on his being a "winner".  Take that out of the equation and its a good signing. I suppose you liked the 1-2 punch of Biggio and Ensberg last year to top the lineup. As to what makes him a good #2 hitter. Everything, but I especially like that he had only 1 GDP last season as much as anything else.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #31 on: November 30, 2007, 08:03:55 am »
I'm not comparing Burke to Matsui to the jukebox at Kay's Lounge, but some of y'all are drinking some strong Kool-Aid when it comes to Matsui.

The Mets ran him out of town during the middle of an NL East pennant race in 2006, in favor of two rookies.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #32 on: November 30, 2007, 08:14:30 am »
Regardless of anyone here's idea of what Burke should or shouldn't be, it should be painfully obvious based on WadeSmith has actually done this offseason (pursuing 2-3 FA's to start at 2b, signing 2-3 potential infield utility guys) that the Astros have no intention of Burke breaking (or even going to) camp with them in 2008.

If Burke puts on an Astros uniform in 2008, several things have gone remarkably wrong for the Astros.


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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #33 on: November 30, 2007, 08:26:23 am »
Amazing. Matsui's defense is outstanding. Perfect number 2 hitter. Proven winner. Hopefully opens the door in Houston for Asian baseball talent. fanbase and $$$


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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #34 on: November 30, 2007, 08:40:34 am »
I'm not comparing Burke to Matsui to the jukebox at Kay's Lounge, but some of y'all are drinking some strong Kool-Aid when it comes to Matsui.

The Mets ran him out of town during the middle of an NL East pennant race in 2006, in favor of two rookies.

Unfortunately, I'm in agreement with you.  I don't like Matsui.  Speed and defense is what you get.  Maybe his ability to switch hit is a factor here, as he's definitely better at the plate as a LHB.  Perhaps their is a platoon in the works here. 

It makes me wonder how much Iguchi is asking from the Astros.  Is he telling them no way?  Is he telling them only if they over-pay? 
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #35 on: November 30, 2007, 08:42:24 am »
With Matsui, we at least know what kind of player we are getting, but with Burke we get a ?  
We saw how that worked in 07
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #36 on: November 30, 2007, 08:45:58 am »
Unfortunately, I'm in agreement with you.  I don't like Matsui.  Speed and defense is what you get.  Maybe his ability to switch hit is a factor here, as he's definitely better at the plate as a LHB.  Perhaps their is a platoon in the works here. 

It makes me wonder how much Iguchi is asking from the Astros.  Is he telling them no way?  Is he telling them only if they over-pay? 

With AE & Kaz up the middle our pitchers (especially sinkerballers like Sampson & Qualls) just got a *lot* better.  Kaz may not be a stud with the bat, but he is certainly adequate for a middle infielder who fields his position well.  When he does get on base, his speed will be a plus factor.  And best of all, we don't have to watch buther burke in the field every day.  I do think Burke can be an adequate (or even above average) bench player if he can get his head screwed on straight, but I am oh so thankful that he has been relieved of his role as heir apparent to Biggio.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #37 on: November 30, 2007, 08:48:54 am »
Sigh. I'm sure I'm going to get flamed for this, but isn't Matsui is about as good as Burke's lower end projection? Looking at Matsui away from Coors, 2006 Burke is better, and 2007 Burke is a wash.

Hopefully I'm wrong, but it seems like again the Astros are going to have 4 OBP sinks in the lineup (unless Towles surprises). And I'm guessing they want to bat Matsui 2nd because of his speed, so again the same problem with Biggio with an obp sink at the top of the order. They could mitigate by doing Borun/Berkman/Pence/Lee, but I don't think that's going to happen. I sure hope this works out, because I don't really think this lineup is going to score many runs at all.

Berkman batting 2nd is the stupidest thing ever said on the TZ, imo.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #38 on: November 30, 2007, 08:50:04 am »
Berkman batting 2nd is the stupidest thing ever said on the TZ, imo.

Not even close, Jim.  Although it may well be the stupidist lineup suggestion.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #39 on: November 30, 2007, 08:50:53 am »
Kaz is a dud. Not much of an upgrade from Burke. Disappointing. I'd rather see them try Wiggington at 2B and Clank at 3B

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #40 on: November 30, 2007, 08:51:52 am »
What about Matsui makes him a "perfect number 2 hitter"?

"Proven winner"? Are you kidding me? I never understood the logic of evaluating an individual's skills using a team's success.

there are many, many things about baseball that you do not understand.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #41 on: November 30, 2007, 08:52:24 am »
the third year scares me a little for some reason.  there might have been another team (cubs?) with a higher annual salary unwilling to commit three years.

If I'm not mistaken, this would be the 2nd longest free agent signing in Astros history, behind Kabong.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #42 on: November 30, 2007, 08:52:46 am »
Given what was available and Burke, Matsui was about as good as the Astros were going to do overall.

IMO, the Japanese market notion cannot be overemphasized.  SmithWade targeted two 2b this off-season. Both Japanese.  They have publicly stated their intention to open the Pacific Rim as much as possible.  They assigned a person, Barker, to that specific region only.  They will now get daily coverage in the Japanese press.  Having Matsui means much more than just having a great defender up the middle for the Astros.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #43 on: November 30, 2007, 08:53:38 am »
I'm not comparing Burke to Matsui to the jukebox at Kay's Lounge, but some of y'all are drinking some strong Kool-Aid when it comes to Matsui.

The Mets ran him out of town during the middle of an NL East pennant race in 2006, in favor of two rookies.

he was not the same player in Colorado, and i do not give a rat's ass about what the Mets did.

on paper, i like this. i'm going to watch him play before i damn him.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #44 on: November 30, 2007, 08:57:07 am »
Mark me down as happy with the trade.

You mean the trade of money for services?

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #45 on: November 30, 2007, 08:57:34 am »
Go get them Ed, hell of a job so far.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #46 on: November 30, 2007, 08:58:53 am »
he was not the same player in Colorado, and i do not give a rat's ass about what the Mets did.

on paper, i like this. i'm going to watch him play before i damn him.

Deferred adjudication?  I think I'll watch him play before even deciding whether or not to damn him.  [/tongue-in-cheek]
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #47 on: November 30, 2007, 09:05:03 am »
I would've rather had Iguchi, but I'm far from disappointed by this signing.  With the speed at the top of the lineup, this is starting to remind me of the 04-05 teams offensively and defensively.  Pitching is, of course, another thing altogether.  Wade's proven his ability to ship established players for well-regarded prospects; now we'll get to see how he does in the other direction. 

I think I'd be going after Cliff Lee or the aforementioned Blanton, but there could be some other options out there too.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #48 on: November 30, 2007, 09:07:57 am »
I'm not comparing Burke to Matsui to the jukebox at Kay's Lounge, but some of y'all are drinking some strong Kool-Aid when it comes to Matsui.

The Mets ran him out of town during the middle of an NL East pennant race in 2006, in favor of two rookies.

if wade's doing anything the opposite of something the mets did then count me as a believer.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #49 on: November 30, 2007, 09:08:37 am »
Deferred adjudication?  I think I'll watch him play before even deciding whether or not to damn him.  [/tongue-in-cheek]

good point. if he plays like last year, i'm happy. he is a very good defender, too.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #50 on: November 30, 2007, 09:12:35 am »
there are many, many things about baseball that you do not understand.

Probably.

So what makes him a "perfect #2 hitter" if you are in agreement?

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #51 on: November 30, 2007, 09:15:35 am »
Probably.

So what makes him a "perfect #2 hitter" if you are in agreement?

i like the way he plays. with the rest of this lineup, he fits #2 well. he can handle the bat, and he can run. he will be a major upgrade at 2B.

do not even try to argue Berkman batting #2. nothing could be dumber.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #52 on: November 30, 2007, 09:23:34 am »
Matsui plays very good defense, is an exceptional baserunner, is a switch hitter, handles the bat well, and is a veteran with playoff experience...all at two areas of need, 2B/2-hole. Yes, terrible signing.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #53 on: November 30, 2007, 09:32:54 am »
If I'm not mistaken, this would be the 2nd longest free agent signing in Astros history, behind Kabong.

If in fact he has been signed.  Molony has picked up the story and put it on the astros.com website.  Citing the Chronicle and the Herald.  Far as I can tell no one has talked to anyone in charge.  Without knowing any of the details though, there is likely not a no trade clause and, in three years, what they'll be paying Matsui will probably be below league average.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #54 on: November 30, 2007, 09:33:18 am »
he was not the same player in Colorado, and i do not give a rat's ass about what the Mets did.

on paper, i like this. i'm going to watch him play before i damn him.

I wasn't damning him.  I've watched him play and speed and defense is what you get.  Any offense he gives you is gravy.  That may work in this lineup.  I think he had an equivalent lineup behind him in Colorado and yet outside Coors Field he struggled.  That said, he was no where near as bad as he was in NY and he is more than a solid defensive 2B.  All and all, I don't think he's a bad signing, but the assertion that he is a "perfect #2 hitter" is a stretch in my opinion.  Is he serviceable in that role, yes.  And a better (in the sense he's proven) option for that role than Everett, who seems to be the only other candidate on the roster.

Someone said it before but the Big FA signings are pushing the salaries of average players thru the ceiling.  In today's market, $5-6mil/yr for a guy who's a solid but not great player seems to be the cost of doing business. 
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #55 on: November 30, 2007, 09:33:55 am »
Matsui plays very good defense, is an exceptional baserunner, is a switch hitter, handles the bat well, and is a veteran with playoff experience...all at two areas of need, 2B/2-hole. Yes, terrible signing.

Also, there is the slight chance that he can play some short. 

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #56 on: November 30, 2007, 09:35:42 am »
Matsui plays very good defense, is an exceptional baserunner, is a switch hitter, handles the bat well, and is a veteran with playoff experience...all at two areas of need, 2B/2-hole. Yes, terrible signing.

I'm glad Wade has come in here with a clean sheet and essentially is ditching all of Purpura's kids.

It looks to me he's systematically ditching all the platoon players, who weren't good enough for regular jobs like Lamb/Ensberg, Lane/Scott, Loretta/Burke (with Everett healthy and Biggio retired) and replacing all of them with guys who are essentially being told they'll play everyday. Sure, the Wiggington deal was done before he got here, but I think he's done a pretty good job so far.

Now we need a closer and a #2 and/or 3 starter and we're ready for 2008.

 

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #57 on: November 30, 2007, 09:35:49 am »
I wasn't damning him.  I've watched him play and speed and defense is what you get.  Any offense he gives you is gravy.  That may work in this lineup.  I think he had an equivalent lineup behind him in Colorado and yet outside Coors Field he struggled.  That said, he was no where near as bad as he was in NY and he is more than a solid defensive 2B.  All and all, I don't think he's a bad signing, but the assertion that he is a "perfect #2 hitter" is a stretch in my opinion.  Is he serviceable in that role, yes.  And a better (in the sense he's proven) option for that role than Everett, who seems to be the only other candidate on the roster.

Someone said it before but the Big FA signings are pushing the salaries of average players thru the ceiling.  In today's market, $5-6mil/yr for a guy who's a solid but not great player seems to be the cost of doing business. 

In front of Pence, Berkman, and Lee, fast runners like Matsui and Bourn will be in scoring position every time they reach first.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #58 on: November 30, 2007, 09:38:48 am »
I'm glad Wade has come in here with a clean sheet and essentially is ditching all of Purpura's kids.

It looks to me he's systematically ditching all the platoon players, who weren't good enough for regular jobs like Lamb/Ensberg, Lane/Scott, Loretta/Burke (with Everett healthy and Biggio retired) and replacing all of them with guys who are essentially being told they'll play everyday. Sure, the Wiggington deal was done before he got here, but I think he's done a pretty good job so far.

Now we need a closer and a #2 and/or 3 starter and we're ready for 2008.

 

who is "we," White Sox fan? btw, i disagree that all of the folks you listed are not "good enough for regular jobs."
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #59 on: November 30, 2007, 09:39:29 am »
This guy Wade is beginning to grow on me.

If AE stays healthy the lineup's defense should be pretty good. Not great, probably, but not terrible like last year's OD lineup. If the team can address the little things such as starting pitching the Astros might be pretty good.

You realize, of course, that upgrading the defense is an indirect way of upgrading your pitching?

If Wade can some how spin Scott/Albers/insert catcher here into Dontrelle, then mark this down as a superb offseason for WadeSmith.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #60 on: November 30, 2007, 09:42:46 am »
Regardless of anyone here's idea of what Burke should or shouldn't be, it should be painfully obvious based on WadeSmith has actually done this offseason (pursuing 2-3 FA's to start at 2b, signing 2-3 potential infield utility guys) that the Astros have no intention of Burke breaking (or even going to) camp with them in 2008.

If Burke puts on an Astros uniform in 2008, several things have gone remarkably wrong for the Astros.



I agree and that's just fine with me.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #61 on: November 30, 2007, 09:44:02 am »
With Matsui, we at least know what kind of player we are getting, but with Burke we get a ? 
We saw how that worked in 07

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #62 on: November 30, 2007, 09:49:27 am »
What the Rockies thought,

Colorado made one last push for Matsui, upping its offer to about $10 million over two years. The Rockies didn't want to go any longer on the deal for two reasons, concern over a herniated disc in Matsui's back (and their ausmusizing possibilities)

also, they might be looking for a 2b,

The Rockies contacted the agent for Loretta, ...However, the Rockies don't like their chances, believing he will end up with the Yankees. While that deal is close, Loretta has made it known how much he likes the Rockies and would prefer to see how their second base situation plays out before signing with the Yankees. 
http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_7595096
« Last Edit: November 30, 2007, 09:52:49 am by pravata »

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #63 on: November 30, 2007, 09:50:23 am »
I would've rather had Iguchi, but I'm far from disappointed by this signing.  With the speed at the top of the lineup, this is starting to remind me of the 04-05 teams offensively and defensively.  Pitching is, of course, another thing altogether.  Wade's proven his ability to ship established players for well-regarded prospects; now we'll get to see how he does in the other direction. 

I think I'd be going after Cliff Lee or the aforementioned Blanton, but there could be some other options out there too.

I haven't heard anything specifically, but if you connect the dots, WadeSmith just made themselves a player for Joe Blanton.  Burke is a player Billy Beane covets, so Burke can be the centerpiece (maybe with Albers added) for a Blanton deal.  Is that worth signing Matsui?  We will see if this is what they're trying to do.

But overall, defensively... this is a huge upgrade if AE comes back 100% and if, (big if right now) Matsui works well sandwiched between Bourn and Pence, then all the better.  If Bourn is good at getting on base and Pence is hitting as he should, Matsui (who is known for bat control) just got a diet of fastball ordered for the 2008 season.  Is that good? 

Bat control + fastball + level swing + gap to gap hitting = good.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #64 on: November 30, 2007, 09:53:10 am »
if wade's doing anything the opposite of something the mets did then count me as a believer.

That's just it.  It's not the "opposite of something" that Minaya would do.  It's exactly what Minaya did when he initially signed Matsui.  Then, a mere two seasons later, Minaya ate an expensive crap sandwich and shipped Matsui off to Colorado.

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?playerID=430565&statType=1

The Mets can and will pay for such crap sandwiches.  Is Uncle Drayton prepared to do the same?

P.S.  I'm all for trading a package of Burke/Scott/whomever for pitching.  Right now, the rotation and the 'pen present much more pressing needs than 2B.  I'm talking solely about the prudence of committing 3 years, $15 million, and the #2 spot in the lineup to Matsui.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #65 on: November 30, 2007, 09:55:19 am »
That's just it.  It's not the "opposite of something" that Minaya would do.  It's exactly what Minaya did when he initially signed Matsui.  Then, a mere two seasons later, Minaya ate an expensive crap sandwich and shipped Matsui off to Colorado.

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?playerID=430565&statType=1

The Mets can and will pay for such crap sandwiches.  Is Uncle Drayton prepared to do the same?

P.S.  I'm all for trading a package of Burke/Scott/whomever for pitching.  Right now, the rotation and the 'pen present much more pressing needs than 2B.  I'm talking solely about the prudence of committing 3 years, $15 million, and the #2 spot in the lineup to Matsui.

Average MLB salary is 2.7 million.  Cheaper than that they get Burke.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #66 on: November 30, 2007, 09:56:33 am »
That's just it.  It's not the "opposite of something" that Minaya would do.  It's exactly what Minaya did when he initially signed Matsui.  Then, a mere two seasons later, Minaya ate an expensive crap sandwich and shipped Matsui off to Colorado.

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?playerID=430565&statType=1

The Mets can and will pay for such crap sandwiches.  Is Uncle Drayton prepared to do the same?

P.S.  I'm all for trading a package of Burke/Scott/whomever for pitching.  Right now, the rotation and the 'pen present much more pressing needs than 2B.  I'm talking solely about the prudence of committing 3 years, $15 million, and the #2 spot in the lineup to Matsui.

it is too early to tell. he came over here as the next great SS and was a bust in NY. so fucking what? he was a pretty damn good player last year. every once in a blue moon, players figure things out and change their games. maybe he has, and i am going to watch him play first. i like it at the present time.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #67 on: November 30, 2007, 09:58:49 am »
What the Rockies thought,

Colorado made one last push for Matsui, upping its offer to about $10 million over two years. The Rockies didn't want to go any longer on the deal for two reasons, concern over a herniated disc in Matsui's back (and their ausmusizing possibilities)

also, they might be looking for a 2b,

The Rockies contacted the agent for Loretta, ...However, the Rockies don't like their chances, believing he will end up with the Yankees. While that deal is close, Loretta has made it known how much he likes the Rockies and would prefer to see how their second base situation plays out before signing with the Yankees. 
http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_7595096

Relatedly the Astros have until tomorrow, Dec 1, to offer arb to Loretta and Miller in order to get a supplemental 1st round pick if either or both go elsewhere.  Doing so should not harm their value as the signing team gives up nothing.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #68 on: November 30, 2007, 10:01:11 am »
Ken Rosenthal is a tool

Choosing between the Rockies, Cubs and Astros, free-agent second baseman Kaz Matsui figured to remain in his comfort zone in Colorado or join one of the game's most fabled franchises in Chicago.

Instead, Matsui (chose) the Astros, the only one of his finalists that did not reach the postseason in 2007.

The deal is still not complete, with an industry source saying Friday morning that there are "still some issues to address." But Matsui's agent, Arn Tellem, has been negotiating exclusively with the Astros.

Matsui, 32, received only a two-year offer from the Rockies. The Cubs, however, made him a three-year offer similar to the Astros'. Perhaps, after flopping with the Mets from 2004 to '06, he prefers to go to a lower-profile market.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7508100

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #69 on: November 30, 2007, 10:01:37 am »
P.S.  I'm all for trading a package of Burke/Scott/whomever for pitching.  Right now, the rotation and the 'pen present much more pressing needs than 2B.  I'm talking solely about the prudence of committing 3 years, $15 million, and the #2 spot in the lineup to Matsui.

Precisely why building a team should never be looked at as a singular proposition.  If anyone did look at a signing or trade with the singular impact isn't really looking at the team concept.  Winning is the objective and winning is directly a result of team, not singular performance.  Singular performance feeds into team, but within the team concept.  That is why the argument against AE not being A-Rod has never been understood by me.  Within the team concept, AE is a great player and contributes highly to winning.  That guys like Ensberg, Lane, Wilson, Huff and others *failed* to perform their role within the team concept should never be AE fault.

However fans readily blamed AE and continue to do so today.  Perplexing actually.  I had a huge argument with my brother-in-law over Thanksgiving and it was over AE.  He regurgitated every faux thinking about AE to me and it was really a huge surprise to me that a guy who actually played ball and has a great understanding of baseball.  It is surprising to say the least.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2007, 10:06:57 am by Noe in Austin »

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #70 on: November 30, 2007, 10:06:54 am »
The Rockies didn't want to go any longer on the deal for two reasons, concern over a herniated disc in Matsui's back (and their ausmusizing possibilities)


I'm glad someone brought that up. In his four years in the Majors, Kaz has played in 114, 87, 70, and 104 games respectively. Blum should see quite a bit of playing time. Between Kaz and AE's back issues as well, the Astros roster needs to be deep in middle infield.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #71 on: November 30, 2007, 10:08:26 am »
Olney's blog today has a quick quote from AE about his leg and his feelings on watching the end of the season play out from the dugout.  AE mentions that he hopes he's tendered a contract.  Please tell me that no one within the organization is seriously considering non-tendering him.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #72 on: November 30, 2007, 10:10:53 am »
Olney's blog today has a quick quote from AE about his leg and his feelings on watching the end of the season play out from the dugout.  AE mentions that he hopes he's tendered a contract.  Please tell me that no one within the organization is seriously considering non-tendering him.

Isn't Everett free agent eligible after the 2008 season?
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #73 on: November 30, 2007, 10:11:33 am »
Olney's blog today has a quick quote from AE about his leg and his feelings on watching the end of the season play out from the dugout.  AE mentions that he hopes he's tendered a contract.  Please tell me that no one within the organization is seriously considering non-tendering him.

They're concerned, but not going to non-tender him.  AE was being his usual self-depreciating self.  Ausmus is good at this as well.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #74 on: November 30, 2007, 10:28:28 am »
I haven't heard anything specifically, but if you connect the dots, WadeSmith just made themselves a player for Joe Blanton.  Burke is a player Billy Beane covets, ...

A's bloggers picked up on the implications of the possible Matsui signing
http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=304&f=2062&t=1452047&p=3&sto=MS_16861471#s=304&f=2062&t=1452047&p=3

But there will be competition for Blanton
http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=304&f=2062&t=1452047&p=3&sto=MS_16861471#s=304&f=2062&t=1333200&p=10

The Mets and Dodgers both like Blanton a lot, and those teams have strong prospects, too. Los Angeles nearly swung a deal for Blanton in July but wouldn't part with minor-league shortstop Ivan DeJesus Jr., who might be a key to any package this time around.

... The steep price would be three or four hotshot youngsters, can't-miss types who would go onto the 40-man roster and therefore be close to big-league ready.

"If we did do anything," Beane said of the possibility of trading Haren or Blanton, "it would be like someone pushing us off a cliff because it was such a great deal."
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2007/11/30/SPH7TLCN9.DTL

and although, as reported 10/2006 "Beane said that the chair wasn't even thrown because the A's drafted the 18-year-old Bonderman, but because the A's missed out on Chris Burke, who was drafted earlier." http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061008&content_id=1705440&vkey=news_oak&fext=.jsp&c_id=oak

His interest may have cooled.  Everyone elses sure has.  Of course Beane is known for seeing things no one else can; such as Erubiel "the Holy Grail" Durazo.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #75 on: November 30, 2007, 10:30:52 am »
Precisely why building a team should never be looked at as a singular proposition.  If anyone did look at a signing or trade with the singular impact isn't really looking at the team concept.  Winning is the objective and winning is directly a result of team, not singular performance.  Singular performance feeds into team, but within the team concept.  That is why the argument against AE not being A-Rod has never been understood by me.  Within the team concept, AE is a great player and contributes highly to winning.  That guys like Ensberg, Lane, Wilson, Huff and others *failed* to perform their role within the team concept should never be AE fault.

However fans readily blamed AE and continue to do so today.  Perplexing actually.  I had a huge argument with my brother-in-law over Thanksgiving and it was over AE.  He regurgitated every faux thinking about AE to me and it was really a huge surprise to me that a guy who actually played ball and has a great understanding of baseball.  It is surprising to say the least.

I certainly agree with the larger concept, Noe.

On the other hand, each transaction is a singular proposition.  I'm not talking about grading Wade's job performance as Astros GM.  I'm simply talking about whether signing Matsui for the reported terms and writing his name in the #2 hole (in ink) is a sound decision, in light of whatever other options the Astros have at 2B (e.g., Burke, Loretta, Blum, Conrad, Ransom, etc.).

Thus far, posters here have claimed that Matsui:

 (1) is a significant upgrade defensively at 2B over Biggio/Burke.  I can't disagree.

 (2) "handles the bat well."  Me, I don't see that .272/.325/.387 (career figures) qualifies as handling the bat relatively well (particularly for a multi-million dollar veteran FA).  Perhaps others disagree.

 (3) brings speed to the lineup.  He's stolen 62 bases in 365 games over 4 seasons.  Is that a base-stealing threat?  I'll grant you, his 87% base-stealing percentage is impressive.

 (4) brings playoff experience to the roster.  Matsui's only playoff experience was with the '07 Rockies.  So, he knows what it means to win the NL in dramatic comeback fashion and then get swept in the World Series.  Seems to me that the Astros (including the dreaded Burke) already have a quantum of that kind of experience.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2007, 10:33:13 am by Kent's Moustache »
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #76 on: November 30, 2007, 10:32:58 am »
I certainly agree with the larger concept, Noe.

On the other hand, each transaction is a singular proposition.  I'm not talking about grading Wade's job performance as Astros GM.  I'm simply talking about whether signing Matsui for the reported terms and writing his name in the #2 hole (in ink) is a sound decision, in light of whatever other options the Astros have at 2B (e.g., Burke, Loretta, Blum, Conrad, Ransom, etc.).

Thus far, posters here have claimed that Matsui:

 (1) is a significant upgrade defensively at 2B over Biggio/Burke.  I can't disagree.

 (2) "handles the bat well."  Me, I don't see that .272/.325/.387 (career figures) qualifies as handling the bat relatively well(particularly for a multi-million dollar veteran FA).  Perhaps others disagree.

 (3) brings speed to the lineup.  He's stolen 62 bases in 365 games over 4 seasons.  Is that a base-stealing threat?  I'll grant you, his 87% base-stealing percentage is excellent.

 (4) brings playoff experience to the roster.  Matsui's only playoff experience was with the '07 Rockies.  So, he knows what it means to win the NL in dramatic comeback fashion and then get swept in the World Series.  Seems to me that the Astros (including the dreaded Burke) already have a quantum of that kind of experience on the roster.

re speed. i am not talking about SBs, although i like them. i am talking about going first to third on a single and scoring from second on EVERY base hit.

chill a bit. you're starting to sound like Dobro talking about Lidge.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #77 on: November 30, 2007, 10:34:14 am »
... The steep price would be three or four hotshot youngsters, can't-miss types who would go onto the 40-man roster and therefore be close to big-league ready.


So according to that report the A's want nearly as much for Blanton as the Twins are likely to get for Santana.  A steal if they can get that much.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #78 on: November 30, 2007, 10:36:11 am »
So according to that report the A's want nearly as much for Blanton as the Twins are likely to get for Santana.  A steal if they can get that much.

Beane might be trying to talk up the price.  But if the Dodgers or even the Mets want Blanton, there's not much the Astros can do about it.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #79 on: November 30, 2007, 10:37:25 am »
re speed. i am not talking about SBs, although i like them. i am talking about going first to third on a single and scoring from second on EVERY base hit.


Also helps in that he has only 4 GIDP in the last three years (which also goes to his bat-handling skills). He will contribute in many ways that don't fit into OPS.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #80 on: November 30, 2007, 10:39:05 am »
I certainly agree with the larger concept, Noe.

On the other hand, each transaction is a singular proposition.  I'm not talking about grading Wade's job performance as Astros GM.  I'm simply talking about whether signing Matsui for the reported terms and writing his name in the #2 hole (in ink) is a sound decision, in light of whatever other options the Astros have at 2B (e.g., Burke, Loretta, Blum, Conrad, Ransom, etc.).

Thus far, posters here have claimed that Matsui:

 (1) is a significant upgrade defensively at 2B over Biggio/Burke.  I can't disagree.

 (2) "handles the bat well."  Me, I don't see that .272/.325/.387 (career figures) qualifies as handling the bat relatively well (particularly for a multi-million dollar veteran FA).  Perhaps others disagree.

 (3) brings speed to the lineup.  He's stolen 62 bases in 365 games over 4 seasons.  Is that a base-stealing threat?  I'll grant you, his 87% base-stealing percentage is impressive.

 

Speed isn't about stolen bases.  Remember, pitching, speed, defense and the offense will work out.  Matsui at second helps make the pitching better.  Speed on the base paths doesn't necessarily mean stolen bases.  He could go 1st to home on a Pence double.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #81 on: November 30, 2007, 10:42:38 am »
Beane might be trying to talk up the price. 

That's quite likely.  Or an indication he really doesn't want to deal Blanton.



Quote
But if the Dodgers or even the Mets want Blanton, there's not much the Astros can do about it.

want Blanton enough to give up more than what the Astros have to give.  There's debate about how badly they want Blanton.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #82 on: November 30, 2007, 10:45:06 am »
A's bloggers picked up on the implications of the possible Matsui signing
http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=304&f=2062&t=1452047&p=3&sto=MS_16861471#s=304&f=2062&t=1452047&p=3

They picked up those implications from Pinwheel.  God help us all.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #83 on: November 30, 2007, 10:46:01 am »
re speed. i am not talking about SBs, although i like them. i am talking about going first to third on a single and scoring from second on EVERY base hit.

chill a bit. you're starting to sound like Dobro talking about Lidge.

No sweat.  I'm not wailing or gnashing my teeth or rending my garments or anything like that.  I'm just questioning a proposition that a lot of folks seem to be taking for granted.

Honestly, the Matsui deal does bothers me, though, for larger reasons.  It signals, IMO, more of an East Coast, high-payroll attitude towards roster management.  Heretofore, I've liked all of Wade's moves, getting a young OF in Bourn and solid veterans Blum and Brocail to fill specific supporting roles.  However, the (potential) Matsui signing smacks of a Minaya-type move, i.e., plug a hole with an expensive but questionable "name" and then simply cut bait if the experiment fails.  That's a regular occurrence in the roster-churning and cash-burning baseball solar system of New York.  Is it a good idea, however, in Houston?

If Matsui signs and plays in Houston anywhere near his '07 performance in Colorado, then I'll politely eat my small helping of crow (washed down with a Miller High Life, a "good, solid beer at a tasty price").  Living in Dallas, however, I regularly hear people say about a pricey but risky FA, "Let's wait and see how he pans out," but I've almost never seen those hopes come to fruition (see, e.g., Park, Chan Ho).
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #84 on: November 30, 2007, 10:48:49 am »
That's quite likely.  Or an indication he really doesn't want to deal Blanton.



want Blanton enough to give up more than what the Astros have to give.  There's debate about how badly they want Blanton.

The A's bloggers also mentioned the Diamondbacks as interested.  All of these teams have far more prospects than the Astros.  If any of these teams want Blanton all of them have a stronger bargaining position than the Astros.  Beane's past interest in Burke likely wont be sufficient.   Burke/Scott may return far less than fans are hoping for.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #85 on: November 30, 2007, 10:50:28 am »
No sweat.  I'm not wailing or gnashing my teeth or rending my garments or anything like that.  I'm just questioning a proposition that a lot of folks seem to be taking for granted.

Honestly, the Matsui deal does bothers me, though, for larger reasons.  It signals, IMO, more of an East Coast, high-payroll attitude towards roster management.  Heretofore, I've liked all of Wade's moves, getting a young OF in Bourn and solid veterans Blum and Brocail to fill specific supporting roles.  However, the (potential) Matsui signing smacks of a Minaya-type move, i.e., plug a hole with an expensive but questionable "name" and then simply cut bait if the experiment fails.  That's a regular occurrence in the roster-churning and cash-burning baseball solar system of New York.  Is it a good idea, however, in Houston?

If Matsui signs and plays in Houston anywhere near his '07 performance in Colorado, then I'll politely eat my small helping of crow (washed down with a Miller High Life, a "good, solid beer at a tasty price").  Living in Dallas, however, I regularly hear people say about a pricey but risky FA, "Let's wait and see how he pans out," but I've almost never seen those hopes come to fruition (see, e.g., Park, Chan Ho).

Nobody cares to watch you eat.  3 years for 15 is not by any stretch a high payroll move.  Doug Brocail is getting 2.5.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #86 on: November 30, 2007, 10:51:55 am »
The A's bloggers also mentioned the Diamondbacks as interested.  All of these teams have far more prospects than the Astros.  If any of these teams want Blanton all of them have a stronger bargaining position than the Astros.  Beane's past interest in Burke likely wont be sufficient.   Burke/Scott may return far less than fans are hoping for.

Agreed.  And every team has more prospects than the Astros.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #87 on: November 30, 2007, 10:52:42 am »
A's bloggers picked up on the implications of the possible Matsui signing
http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=304&f=2062&t=1452047&p=3&sto=MS_16861471#s=304&f=2062&t=1452047&p=3

But there will be competition for Blanton
http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=304&f=2062&t=1452047&p=3&sto=MS_16861471#s=304&f=2062&t=1333200&p=10

The Mets and Dodgers both like Blanton a lot, and those teams have strong prospects, too. Los Angeles nearly swung a deal for Blanton in July but wouldn't part with minor-league shortstop Ivan DeJesus Jr., who might be a key to any package this time around.

... The steep price would be three or four hotshot youngsters, can't-miss types who would go onto the 40-man roster and therefore be close to big-league ready.

"If we did do anything," Beane said of the possibility of trading Haren or Blanton, "it would be like someone pushing us off a cliff because it was such a great deal."
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2007/11/30/SPH7TLCN9.DTL

and although, as reported 10/2006 "Beane said that the chair wasn't even thrown because the A's drafted the 18-year-old Bonderman, but because the A's missed out on Chris Burke, who was drafted earlier." http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061008&content_id=1705440&vkey=news_oak&fext=.jsp&c_id=oak

His interest may have cooled.  Everyone elses sure has.  Of course Beane is known for seeing things no one else can; such as Erubiel "the Holy Grail" Durazo.

I think Beane does see things differently.  Burke seems to be a favorite of those inclined towards sabre because they see potential oozing out of Chris.  Breakout year, et. al.  Any way, I didn't think about Scott, but I suspect a Burke/Albers package gets Beane's attention.

Overpaying for Blanton by the Mets or others is cool, more power to Beane to make them pay top prospects.  But I sincerely think the A's/Astros have the makings of a deal.  IMHO of course.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #88 on: November 30, 2007, 10:53:16 am »
Speed isn't about stolen bases.  Remember, pitching, speed, defense and the offense will work out.  Matsui at second helps make the pitching better.  Speed on the base paths doesn't necessarily mean stolen bases.  He could go 1st to home on a Pence double.

Understood and agreed.  Matsui has scored 212 runs in 375 career games.  Not bad at all.

If he's capable of maintaining that kind of production, at 32 and with a bad back, then the signing makes more sense.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #89 on: November 30, 2007, 10:53:56 am »
3 years for 15 is not by any stretch a high payroll move. 

That was my thought too.  Watch what Iguchi gets.  
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #90 on: November 30, 2007, 10:55:45 am »
They picked up those implications from Pinwheel.  God help us all.

Technically, they picked up news of the signing via the Chicago paper's article, delivered by Pinwheel, who, only two days ago was taking dictation from Tracy Ringolsby (who heard from a radio station) that the Cubs had signed Matsui.  Pinwheel doesn't mention the A's, only the talisman of Burke/Scott which will surely bring the Astros a #2.  Or the fandumb will be sorely disappointed.  And we know what happens then.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2007, 10:57:29 am by pravata »

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #91 on: November 30, 2007, 10:56:26 am »
Once again, I think there's some misunderstanding of Beane.  He's a contrarian, he likes to take advantage of the market as he sees it.  Closers overvalued?  Trade your closer.  Not many arms out there?  Trade one of yours and clean up on prospects.

Thus his throwing Blanton out there.  He's nutty if he trades Haren, though.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #92 on: November 30, 2007, 10:57:32 am »
Understood and agreed.  Matsui has scored 212 runs in 375 career games.  Not bad at all.

If he's capable of maintaining that kind of production, at 32 and with a bad back, then the signing makes more sense.

Matsui won't make this team go by himself.  He's not Biggio in his prime.  He'll need Bourn to get on base and Pence to be somewhere near the hitter he was last year.  Matsui is a role player offensively.  His skill set fits in very nicely if Bourn has a obp of .350 or better and Pence doesn't suffer a sophomore slump.  He does give the Astros more at second than Burke, Iguchi, and Loretta.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #93 on: November 30, 2007, 11:03:07 am »
No sweat.  I'm not wailing or gnashing my teeth or rending my garments or anything like that.  I'm just questioning a proposition that a lot of folks seem to be taking for granted.

Had I been rating the gets available for second base, 2 hole hitter, it would go like this:

1. Castillo (off the board)
2. Iguchi (my preference, but seems to be leaning on returning to Philly for the vacant third base job)
3. Matsui
4. Burke

So if they couldn't realistically get Castillo, their actual preference, also Iguchi, then it's between Matsui and Burke for the job at second (defense).  Advantage Matsui by a very long shot (defense).  For the 2 hole in the lineup: Burke or Matsui?  Burke has a tendency to put air under his swing, so his ability as a #2 hitter is in question.  He has limitation because of that in terms of bat control.  WadeSmith said Burke was going to have to come into spring training and "knock our socks off".  I took that to mean "he better show he's a 2 hitter, because the doubts about that are serious".  Matsui?  OBP is a problem, but bat control has never been an issue.  The key for Matsui as a contributor will be how well Bourn gets on base and how well Pence hits behind him.  Matsui on his own is not going to carry the team nor provide any great whoop on offense.  But put Bourn on first, Pence on deck and a pitcher has to decide to go after Matsui while Bourn is inching his way towards second.

Means Matsui may be getting much more in terms of pitches to handle.  If it's Burke, it would be a shame if it's hit in the air.  If it's Matsui, same thing, but he is a player that knows how to hit gap to gap, put the ball in the ground behind the runner and hits well against right handers.  Matsui's problems with splits may also be tied to who hit in front of him and how well they did to get on base outside of Coors (I don't know).

At this point, it's theoretical with Matsui and Bourn on offense, but nothing is in question as far as defense and that goes a long way to help the pitching.  Long the staple of winning baseball in Houston.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2007, 11:08:58 am by Noe in Austin »

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #94 on: November 30, 2007, 11:05:15 am »
To give some perspective of Matsui's defense:

The Fielding Bible uses a "plus/minus" system to evaluate defense - essentially, a plus rating meaning that player made that many more plays than the average at their position.  For example, AE had their highest rating ever, a +43 during 2006.

For 2007, Matsui was a +12 at 2b; Biggio was a -17.  So you're talking an upgrade of 29 plays a year, which if I read their charts right, is a bigger upgrade than moving from an average CF to Carlo$ in CF.

[/uninformed statistical info]
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #95 on: November 30, 2007, 11:05:59 am »
Matsui won't make this team go by himself.  He's not Biggio in his prime.  He'll need Bourn to get on base and Pence to be somewhere near the hitter he was last year.  Matsui is a role player offensively.  His skill set fits in very nicely if Bourn has a obp of .350 or better and Pence doesn't suffer a sophomore slump.  He does give the Astros more at second than Burke, Iguchi, and Loretta.

Get out of my head!  (Defense is also not in doubt, the Houston Astros have upgraded the defense, thus the pitching, tremendously this offseason... I mean very much upgraded!)

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #96 on: November 30, 2007, 11:08:43 am »
Get out of my head!  (Defense is also not in doubt, the Houston Astros have upgraded the defense, thus the pitching, tremendously this offseason... I mean very much upgraded!)

And they now have 4 or maybe 5 players who can legitimately take two bases on a single. (Ask the Angels how that works) Last season, they had 1 for most of the season.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #97 on: November 30, 2007, 11:09:00 am »
Once again, I think there's some misunderstanding of Beane.  He's a contrarian, he likes to take advantage of the market as he sees it.  Closers overvalued?  Trade your closer.  Not many arms out there?  Trade one of yours and clean up on prospects.

Thus his throwing Blanton out there.  He's nutty if he trades Haren, though.

Tell you what though, if the Astros think Harden is healthy or will be healthy some time this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see them deal for him.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #98 on: November 30, 2007, 11:12:58 am »
Plus, the Astros will have the option of flip/flopping 1 and 2 if needed. Kaz had a .380 OBP as a leadoff hitter for the Rockies in '07. (.322 in the #2 hole)
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #99 on: November 30, 2007, 11:15:35 am »
(washed down with a Miller High Life, a "good, solid beer at a tasty price").  
Get behind me, satan.  I'd rather have a tasty beer at a good, solid price.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #100 on: November 30, 2007, 11:15:52 am »
Ken Rosenthal is a tool

Choosing between the Rockies, Cubs and Astros, free-agent second baseman Kaz Matsui figured to remain in his comfort zone in Colorado or join one of the game's most fabled franchises in Chicago.


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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #101 on: November 30, 2007, 11:18:47 am »

When will drunk CubFan learn...the Cubs are not "legendary", they are "notorious".

Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to watch a baseball game.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #102 on: November 30, 2007, 11:19:47 am »
"Fabled" in the Borthers Grimm sense.  People forget just how fucked up those original stories were.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #103 on: November 30, 2007, 11:22:30 am »
Plus, the Astros will have the option of flip/flopping 1 and 2 if needed. Kaz had a .380 OBP as a leadoff hitter for the Rockies in '07. (.322 in the #2 hole)

His career OBP hitting in the leadoff spot and #2 are pretty much the same (.335ish area).  However, his BA between the two is larger .266 leadoff vs. .284 hitting #2.  That means he does put the bat on the ball (like Loretta) and if he is hitting behind a good OBP guy, he seems to do better (BA).  His career BA with a man occupying first base: .316 (the highest of his BA with men on base).  The key, then, is Michael Bourn.  Matsui won't be making up for the lack of Bourn's ability to get on base.  But if Bourn does get on base, Matsui can hit really well behind him as his career BA indicates.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #104 on: November 30, 2007, 11:24:42 am »
All this analysis is great, but do we really have confirmation that the deal is done?
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #105 on: November 30, 2007, 11:25:48 am »
Sigh. I'm sure I'm going to get flamed for this, but isn't Matsui is about as good as Burke's lower end projection? Looking at Matsui away from Coors, 2006 Burke is better, and 2007 Burke is a wash.

Hopefully I'm wrong, but it seems like again the Astros are going to have 4 OBP sinks in the lineup (unless Towles surprises). And I'm guessing they want to bat Matsui 2nd because of his speed, so again the same problem with Biggio with an obp sink at the top of the order. They could mitigate by doing Borun/Berkman/Pence/Lee, but I don't think that's going to happen. I sure hope this works out, because I don't really think this lineup is going to score many runs at all.

Dealing in the real world, Wade has exhibited zero interest in retaining Burke, as he was obviously the last option behind at least 3 free agents. But if you're intent on comparing the two based on a single myopic statistic, Matsui's career OBP is 6 points higher than Burke's. I fail to see how - even by your extraordinarily narrow standards - Burke is in any way preferable to Matsui.

So, in addition to that, Matsui is a switch-hitter with good bat control, steals at a better rate, plays superior defense, grounds into fewer DPs, and has not yet shit on the organization in the media for perceived slights to his manhood. It's also not a question of Matsui being the Astros' ideal player, or even their first choice. Matsui was the best available that fit what the club was looking for in a 2B and #2 hitter. Tell me how Burke is better at what the Astros were looking for, or who the mystery 2B is that you think they should have bagged.

This is reality. Try to evaluate inside of it, because that's where the club conducts their business. If they could pay an extra couple of million to raise his OBP, I'm sure they would, but your fast, defensively sound 2B who gets on base at a higher clip is not available to Houston, or we wouldn't be having this discussion.

Criticizing the signing by making comparisons to inferior or entirely unavailable players is pointless. That you would try to solve this by putting a slow, middle of the order slugger in the 2-hole is phenomenal. Please do write Footer and share your ideas.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #106 on: November 30, 2007, 11:27:30 am »
All this analysis is great, but do we really have confirmation that the deal is done?

No, but we had to wait a week and a half to get confirmation about Blum's signing.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #107 on: November 30, 2007, 11:27:54 am »
But if Bourn does get on base, Matsui can hit really well behind him as his career BA indicates.

You can bet the farm that is exactly what SmithWade are thinking.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #108 on: November 30, 2007, 11:28:56 am »
No, but we had to wait a week and a half to get confirmation about Blum's signing.

I'd guess he's got to get the physical out of the way.  With his back issues, that's probably a sizeable sticking point.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #109 on: November 30, 2007, 11:30:52 am »
I'd guess he's got to get the physical out of the way.  With his back issues, that's probably a sizeable sticking point.

I'm thinking option clauses for the third year.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #110 on: November 30, 2007, 11:31:33 am »
Dealing in the real world, Wade has exhibited zero interest in retaining Burke, as he was obviously the last option behind at least 3 free agents. But if you're intent on comparing the two based on a single myopic statistic, Matsui's career OBP is 6 points higher than Burke's. I fail to see how - even by your extraordinarily narrow standards - Burke is in any way preferable to Matsui.

So, in addition to that, Matsui is a switch-hitter with good bat control, steals at a better rate, plays superior defense, grounds into fewer DPs, and has not yet shit on the organization in the media for perceived slights to his manhood. It's also not a question of Matsui being the Astros' ideal player, or even their first choice. Matsui was the best available that fit what the club was looking for in a 2B and #2 hitter. Tell me how Burke is better at what the Astros were looking for, or who the mystery 2B is that you think they should have bagged.

This is reality. Try to evaluate inside of it, because that's where the club conducts their business. If they could pay an extra couple of million to raise his OBP, I'm sure they would, but your fast, defensively sound 2B who gets on base at a higher clip is not available to Houston, or we wouldn't be having this discussion.

Criticizing the signing by making comparisons to inferior or entirely unavailable players is pointless. That you would try to solve this by putting a slow, middle of the order slugger in the 2-hole is phenomenal. Please do write Footer and share your ideas.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #111 on: November 30, 2007, 11:32:06 am »
I'm thinking option clauses for the third year.

I dont know, Rosenthal reported that the Cubs offered 3.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #112 on: November 30, 2007, 11:33:24 am »
I'm thinking option clauses for the third year.

A team option or even a mutual option for the third year would be outstanding.  Have you heard if he's pushing for a 4th year option with the first 3 guaranteed?
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #113 on: November 30, 2007, 11:36:04 am »
You can bet the farm that is exactly what SmithWade are thinking.

Yup.  That's why I thought Iguchi was better because he has some power to add to the bat control.  But Matsui is the best of the choices defense options.  The key is Bourn and how much Wade believes in this kid.  Matsui is the compliment to Bourn, while Burke has misgivings given his penchant for swinging for the downs.

I remember the conversation Brownie and JD had last year when evaluating Burke's swing during a stretch when he was playing.  It was Brownie who said that "Burke just needs to learn not to put the ball in the air so much".  JD said some things along the same lines and JD's comment was that Burke was pretty much a Phil Garner clone and making himself a #6 hitter with his approach and not a top of the lineup hitter.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #114 on: November 30, 2007, 11:36:59 am »
A team option or even a mutual option for the third year would be outstanding.  Have you heard if he's pushing for a 4th year option with the first 3 guaranteed?

I've heard nothing, but just going on how McLane likes to operate while giving out contracts.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #115 on: November 30, 2007, 11:44:15 am »
he was not the same player in Colorado, and i do not give a rat's ass about what the Mets did.

on paper, i like this. i'm going to watch him play before i damn him.

Good buddy of mine, big time Mets fan felt Matsui never got a fair shake with the Mets.  Something about struggling to adjust to America on in NY.  Too much expected too fast.  And the whole suppose to be the SS thing.  He said he showed flashes of the brilliance when he was with the Mets but never put it all together with them.

I like Matsui.  The only concern here is the back.  Can he play a full season?  NIce to have Blum with Matsui starting. 

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #116 on: November 30, 2007, 11:52:46 am »
If it's true, I think it's another good signing by the new GM.  Speed and depth up the middle and I echo the remarks about tapping the asian market being good thing.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #117 on: November 30, 2007, 11:57:26 am »
I remember the conversation Brownie and JD had last year when evaluating Burke's swing during a stretch when he was playing.  It was Brownie who said that "Burke just needs to learn not to put the ball in the air so much".  JD said some things along the same lines and JD's comment was that Burke was pretty much a Phil Garner clone and making himself a #6 hitter with his approach and not a top of the lineup hitter.
Exactly.  I don't want to lose sight of the big picture here - this signing means Burke is not our opening day 2B.  That sure makes me feel better.

I don't think 3yr/$15M is going to push our team into the financial apocalypse if Matsui doesn't work out.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #118 on: November 30, 2007, 12:03:53 pm »
I don't think 3yr/$15M is going to push our team into the financial apocalypse if Matsui doesn't work out.

Precisely. The theoretical, as-of-current-speculation combo of Bourn/Matsui/Qualls is cheaper than Burke/Biggio/Lidge, anyway. Amortized across all of the replaced positions so far, I don't think payroll has even gone up. Someone more ambitious than me should do the math, figuring raises in arbitration and free agency.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #119 on: November 30, 2007, 12:06:37 pm »
Precisely. The theoretical, as-of-current-speculation combo of Bourn/Matsui/Qualls is cheaper than Burke/Biggio/Lidge, anyway. Amortized across all of the replaced positions so far, I don't think payroll has even gone up. Someone more ambitious than me should do the math, figuring raises in arbitration and free agency.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #120 on: November 30, 2007, 12:37:06 pm »
(2) "handles the bat well."  Me, I don't see that .272/.325/.387 (career figures) qualifies as handling the bat relatively well (particularly for a multi-million dollar veteran FA).  Perhaps others disagree.

Bingo.

Vague accolades which apparently aren't demonstrated in the actual games.

Did Colorado use him at the top of the order?

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #121 on: November 30, 2007, 12:40:17 pm »
Vague accolades which apparently aren't demonstrated in the actual games.

"Handling the bat" is a skill, not a result.

Quote
Did Colorado use him at the top of the order?

He hit 1 or 2 in every game during 2007.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #122 on: November 30, 2007, 12:44:04 pm »
Bingo.

Vague accolades which apparently aren't demonstrated in the actual games.

Did Colorado use him at the top of the order?

Then who?
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #123 on: November 30, 2007, 12:52:36 pm »
...Vague ...

Because you can't see it, doesn't mean it's vague. 

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #124 on: November 30, 2007, 12:53:15 pm »
He hit 1 or 2 in every game during 2007.

Finding that answer takes about as long as typing the question.  In 1 interleague game he hit 9th. 5 abs.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2007, 12:55:04 pm by pravata »

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #125 on: November 30, 2007, 12:54:37 pm »

When will drunk CubFan learn...the Cubs are not "legendary", they are "notorious".

they are infamous, which is when you are more than famous.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #126 on: November 30, 2007, 12:57:24 pm »
Bingo.

Vague accolades which apparently aren't demonstrated in the actual games.

Did Colorado use him at the top of the order?

MM covered this, but hitting for average, getting on base, and bat-handling are all different things. Berkman, your number 2 hitter, hits for average/power and gets on base, but doesn't handle the bat for shit. I think pretty much anyone in baseball would define handling the bat well as being able to make contact and get the ball to go more or less where you want it to (e.g. hit a GB to the right side with a runner on 2nd). If you really don't know the difference between that and batting average, I don't know what else to tell you.

How is it that you've managed to arrive at a conclusion about Matsui's proficiency as a top of the order hitter, yet you don't even know if he hit at the top of the order last year?
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #127 on: November 30, 2007, 12:58:40 pm »
Bingo.

Vague accolades which apparently aren't demonstrated in the actual games.

Did Colorado use him at the top of the order?

It's too much trouble to put you on "ignore", since I would just see your nonsense in other people's replies anyway.  As such, I have to respond to this incredible display of ignore-ance ... It is precisely these aspects of Matsui's skillset that *are* demonstrated in actual games that we are talking about.  The fact that they do not show up very readily in your favorite set of statistics is completely irrelevant.  Watch the fricking games!!!!!!
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #128 on: November 30, 2007, 12:59:33 pm »
Berkman,  doesn't handle the bat for shit.

Well he does always place it gently on the ground when it is behaving nicely.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #129 on: November 30, 2007, 01:00:07 pm »
How is it that you've managed to arrive at a conclusion about Matsui's proficiency as a top of the order hitter, yet you don't even know if he hit at the top of the order last year?

Maybe you should ask Noe.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #130 on: November 30, 2007, 01:02:57 pm »
Well he does always place it gently on the ground when it is behaving nicely.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #131 on: November 30, 2007, 01:03:54 pm »
Maybe you should ask Noe.

Noe and an essay on what bat control means.  I'd advise laying in plenty of fire wood and fluff up the seat cushions.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #132 on: November 30, 2007, 01:09:12 pm »
Noe and an essay on what bat control means.  I'd advise laying in plenty of fire wood and fluff up the seat cushions.

The cliff note of said essay:

Bat control = not what Chris Burke is known for.

Bat control = what Matsui does well enough to make one favor putting him behind the potential of Bourn in front of him and Pence behind him.

People should not lose sight that Bourn and Pence are key to what Matsui will bring to you as a #2.  Burke pretty much played himself out of the lineup spot with what he does with a bat.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #133 on: November 30, 2007, 01:11:13 pm »
The cliff note of said essay:

Bat control = not what Chris Burke is known for.

Bat control = what Matsui does well enough to make one favor putting him behind the potential of Bourn in front of him and Pence behind him.

People should not lose sight that Bourn and Pence are key to what Matsui will bring to you as a #2.  Burke pretty much played himself out of the lineup spot with what he does with a bat.

Great. What the hell am I supposed to do with all of this firewood now?
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #134 on: November 30, 2007, 01:13:02 pm »
Great. What the hell am I supposed to do with all of this firewood now?

Feed it to the Hot Stove.  It's freezing in the Void.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #135 on: November 30, 2007, 01:13:29 pm »
Great. What the hell am I supposed to do with all of this firewood now?

Keep it for when he releases the director's cut.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #136 on: November 30, 2007, 01:21:38 pm »

Hopefully Bourn will provide him with alot of-

runner on first .333
runner on second .313
runner on third .273


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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #137 on: November 30, 2007, 01:25:25 pm »
Hopefully Bourn will provide him with alot of-

runner on first .333
runner on second .313
runner on third .273

And Pence sitting on-deck waiting to pick-up whatever Matsui doesn't get done.  Which means the pitcher has to be concerned about that and challenge Matsui.  Bourn just has to get on base and make it all work.  If he does, Houston has the sort of lineup that works really well in the NL.  Plus they have defense up the middle too.

It all has to work out during the season because what happens in theory and what happens in the field sometimes does not translate.  Some times it translates so well it's scary.  At least there is a plan and it's being carried out.  Fans need to pay attention, there are baseball men at work here.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #138 on: November 30, 2007, 02:14:44 pm »
"Handling the bat" is a skill, not a result.

He hit 1 or 2 in every game during 2007.

In front of some pretty solid Rockies hitters, I don't really expect to see alot of improvement from his non-Coors numbers just because he's going to "see fastballs" hitting in front of Pence, Berkman, Lee.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #139 on: November 30, 2007, 02:16:02 pm »
Bingo.

Vague accolades which apparently aren't demonstrated in the actual games.

Did Colorado use him at the top of the order?

good grief, you are a dumbass.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #140 on: November 30, 2007, 02:17:37 pm »
"Handling the bat" is a skill, not a result.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #141 on: November 30, 2007, 02:19:03 pm »
MM covered this, but hitting for average, getting on base, and bat-handling are all different things. Berkman, your number 2 hitter, hits for average/power and gets on base, but doesn't handle the bat for shit. I think pretty much anyone in baseball would define handling the bat well as being able to make contact and get the ball to go more or less where you want it to (e.g. hit a GB to the right side with a runner on 2nd). If you really don't know the difference between that and batting average, I don't know what else to tell you.

How is it that you've managed to arrive at a conclusion about Matsui's proficiency as a top of the order hitter, yet you don't even know if he hit at the top of the order last year?

Instead of a guy that's really good at advancing runners, I think it would have a positive impact on team runs scored to have a guy that isn't good at that, but makes less outs in front of the best hitters.

About me making judgments on Matsui... I don't have the MLB package. If i did, I wouldn't watch Rockies games. I haven't really seen too much of him, so all I know is that he's a subpar offensive player based on what contributes to runs scored totals.

Anyway, he's obviously the #2 hitter for 2008 so I wish him luck and hope he has a solid season in MMP and that he can maybe contribute with his defense and speed to make up for a lack of production at the plate.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #142 on: November 30, 2007, 02:21:26 pm »
Instead of a guy that's really good at advancing runners, I think it would have a positive impact on team runs scored to have a guy that isn't good at that, but makes less outs in front of the best hitters.

Because the Earl Weaver theory worked so well for last year's club?

Quote
About me making judgments on Matsui... I don't have the MLB package. If i did, I wouldn't watch Rockies games. I haven't really seen too much of him, so all I know is that he's a subpar offensive player based on what contributes to runs scored totals.

"I only look at stats" is much easier to type and makes your "point" much more clear.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #143 on: November 30, 2007, 02:24:23 pm »
Instead of a guy that's really good at advancing runners, I think it would have a positive impact on team runs scored to have a guy that isn't good at that, but makes less outs in front of the best hitters.

About me making judgments on Matsui... I don't have the MLB package. If i did, I wouldn't watch Rockies games. I haven't really seen too much of him, so all I know is that he's a subpar offensive player based on what contributes to runs scored totals.

Anyway, he's obviously the #2 hitter for 2008 so I wish him luck and hope he has a solid season in MMP and that he can maybe contribute with his defense and speed to make up for a lack of production at the plate.

You still haven't told us who you'd prefer at 2b, batting second.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #144 on: November 30, 2007, 02:25:03 pm »
... I think ...

You lost me right there.  It is obvious that you do not.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #145 on: November 30, 2007, 02:27:14 pm »
I don't really expect to see alot of improvement from his non-Coors numbers

I love how we can look just at his road splits and extrapolate a whole season.

Hmmm... where would a Colorado Rockie play most of their road games?

PETCO Park: 34 AB .235/.297/.294
Dodger Stadium: 32 AB .125/.243/.156

These places play pretty much the same as MMPUS, right?
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #146 on: November 30, 2007, 02:28:11 pm »
Instead of a guy that's really good at advancing runners, I think it would have a positive impact on team runs scored to have a guy that isn't good at that, but makes less outs in front of the best hitters.

About me making judgments on Matsui... I don't have the MLB package. If i did, I wouldn't watch Rockies games. I haven't really seen too much of him, so all I know is that he's a subpar offensive player based on what contributes to runs scored totals.

Anyway, he's obviously the #2 hitter for 2008 so I wish him luck and hope he has a solid season in MMP and that he can maybe contribute with his defense and speed to make up for a lack of production at the plate.

so you have not watched him play, but your sheet of paper tells you he sucks?

fucking idiocy
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #147 on: November 30, 2007, 02:28:24 pm »
Instead of a guy that's really good at advancing runners, I think it would have a positive impact on team runs scored to have a guy that isn't good at that, but makes less outs in front of the best hitters.

About me making judgments on Matsui... I don't have the MLB package. If i did, I wouldn't watch Rockies games. I haven't really seen too much of him, so all I know is that he's a subpar offensive player based on what contributes to runs scored totals.

Anyway, he's obviously the #2 hitter for 2008 so I wish him luck and hope he has a solid season in MMP and that he can maybe contribute with his defense and speed to make up for a lack of production at the plate.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #148 on: November 30, 2007, 02:31:14 pm »
I think you stumbled into the wrong place. The pseudo-SABR-roto-geek board is further down the hall to your left. Please shut the door when you leave.

Um, they're not down the hall.  They're in the basement.  They like the half lit room and lack of windows or so I'm told.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #149 on: November 30, 2007, 02:33:24 pm »
I think you stumbled into the wrong place. The pseudo-SABR-roto-geek board is further down the hall to your left. Please shut the door when you leave.

If I've linked it correctly (can't check the link at work - stoopid fun filter), this classic comes to mind.

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« Last Edit: November 30, 2007, 02:47:39 pm by Limey »
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #150 on: November 30, 2007, 02:36:42 pm »
Instead of a guy that's really good at advancing runners, I think it would have a positive impact on team runs scored to have a guy that isn't good at that, but makes less outs in front of the best hitters.

About me making judgments on Matsui... I don't have the MLB package. If i did, I wouldn't watch Rockies games. I haven't really seen too much of him, so all I know is that he's a subpar offensive player based on what contributes to runs scored totals.

Anyway, he's obviously the #2 hitter for 2008 so I wish him luck and hope he has a solid season in MMP and that he can maybe contribute with his defense and speed to make up for a lack of production at the plate.

This is an astonishingly fucked up response. Basically, you don't know anything about Matsui, but you know plenty enough to judge him in very specifically. You care enough to look up his OBP and home/road splits, but not enough to look on the same page to see where in the order he batted. You know he's unproductive at the plate, but we're not certain how you know this. You know the Astros could do better, but you won't say who. And best of all, you're certain that you have a better grasp on what's important in the #2 spot in the order than every person who is paid good money to put together actual baseball teams.

Ho. Lee. Shit. Who dropped the crazy into the fucking water supply today?
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #151 on: November 30, 2007, 02:42:22 pm »
And best of all, you're certain that you have a better grasp on what's important in the #2 spot in the order than every person who is paid good money to put together actual baseball teams.
Fuckin A right he does.  Cyril Morong told him so.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #152 on: November 30, 2007, 02:43:23 pm »
so you have not watched him play, but your sheet of paper tells you he sucks?

fucking idiocy

The sheet of paper he did not bother to fully read.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #153 on: November 30, 2007, 02:43:51 pm »
This is an astonishingly fucked up response. Basically, you don't know anything about Matsui, but you know plenty enough to judge him in very specifically. You care enough to look up his OBP and home/road splits, but not enough to look on the same page to see where in the order he batted. You know he's unproductive at the plate, but we're not certain how you know this. You know the Astros could do better, but you won't say who. And best of all, you're certain that you have a better grasp on what's important in the #2 spot in the order than every person who is paid good money to put together actual baseball teams.

Ho. Lee. Shit. Who dropped the crazy into the fucking water supply today?

elitist.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #154 on: November 30, 2007, 02:44:37 pm »
You still haven't told us who you'd prefer at 2b, batting second.

Burke at 2b, Berkman batting second.

Sorry for the apparent provoking of animosity, even if you think my comments are stupid I don't think they are made with a bad attitude.  ???

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #155 on: November 30, 2007, 02:45:01 pm »
elitist.

Fortunately, only the top 3% of all IQs get access to that water supply.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #156 on: November 30, 2007, 02:45:09 pm »
The sheet of paper he did not bother to fully read.

You read what you wipe?
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #157 on: November 30, 2007, 02:47:02 pm »
Sorry for the apparent provoking of animosity, even if you think my comments are stupid I don't think they are made with a bad attitude.  ???

You should at least watch a guy play before commenting on his skills, or lie about it.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #158 on: November 30, 2007, 02:48:21 pm »
Burke at 2b, Berkman batting second.

Sorry for the apparent provoking of animosity, even if you think my comments are stupid I don't think they are made with a bad attitude.  ???

So you didn't understand the pitching, speed, defense, and the offense will work itself out thing.  Burke isn't good enough defensively for SmithWade and with his giant flop last year, offensively as well.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #159 on: November 30, 2007, 02:48:37 pm »
You should at least watch a guy play before commenting on his skills, or lie about it.

You really think all the people here commenting on Matsui have watched him play a significant amount of games?

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #160 on: November 30, 2007, 02:49:39 pm »
Burke at 2b, Berkman batting second.

http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=104317.0

Quote
Berkman has hit in the cleanup spot in past years but enjoyed great success as the No. 3 hitter. With less speed than Pence, however, he may be morphing into a cleanup hitter as he enters his eighth full season in the Majors.

"He's not an old guy, but he's not a young guy, either," Cooper said of Berkman, who will turn 32 in February. "I see him moving down in the lineup, to four or five. Hunter is the more likely [No. 3 guy]."

Not to mention how Berkman has none of the qualities of a #2 hitter.



Quote
Sorry for the apparent provoking of animosity, even if you think my comments are stupid I don't think they are made with a bad attitude.  ???

I think both your comments, and your reliance on statistics without context or thought, are stupid - not your attitude.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #161 on: November 30, 2007, 02:50:10 pm »
So you didn't understand the pitching, speed, defense, and the offense will work itself out thing.  Burke isn't good enough defensively for SmithWade and with his giant flop last year, offensively as well.

No I do, just don't see this lineup doing too well. I wouldn't like Burke in the 2 hole either, fwiw.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #162 on: November 30, 2007, 02:53:05 pm »
No I do, just don't see this lineup doing too well. I wouldn't like Burke in the 2 hole either, fwiw NTTAWWT.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #163 on: November 30, 2007, 02:53:39 pm »
I wouldn't like Burke in the 2 hole either, fwiw.

Who would you like?

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #164 on: November 30, 2007, 02:54:31 pm »

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #165 on: November 30, 2007, 02:55:32 pm »
Who would you like?

with this current roster, bourn/berkman/pence/lee/wigginton/matsui/towles/everett

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #166 on: November 30, 2007, 02:57:00 pm »


Ho. Lee. Shit.

He Seop Choi's younger brother?

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #167 on: November 30, 2007, 02:57:55 pm »
with this current roster, bourn/berkman/pence/lee/wigginton/matsui/towles/everett

Berkman at 2 is bad enough but Matsui at 6? That's ridiculous.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #168 on: November 30, 2007, 02:58:11 pm »
Burke at 2b, Berkman batting second.

Sorry for the apparent provoking of animosity, even if you think my comments are stupid I don't think they are made with a bad attitude.  ???

this is World Class Stupid. really.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #169 on: November 30, 2007, 02:58:29 pm »
Actually, Ho Lee Shit was pitching at RR this year.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #170 on: November 30, 2007, 03:02:22 pm »
You really think all the people here commenting on Matsui have watched him play a significant amount of games?

Which people are you talking about?  Because there are a number of people who have commented on Matsui who have the experience and expertise to assess his skills by watching the series he played against the Astros and the post season. 

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #171 on: November 30, 2007, 03:05:41 pm »
I think both your comments, and your reliance on statistics without context or thought, are stupid - not your attitude.

I disagree.  I don't see how he could make those comments without possessing the attitude that no one else, either here or in the Astros organization, is either aware of or can properly interpret the numbers as he has.  That is clearly a provocation.  Does he think we're all stupid?
« Last Edit: November 30, 2007, 03:15:46 pm by pravata »

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #172 on: November 30, 2007, 03:09:26 pm »
Burke at 2b, Berkman batting second.

Sorry for the apparent provoking of animosity, even if you think my comments are stupid I don't think they are made with a bad attitude.  ???

I don't question your attitude, but you are giving "stupid" a bad name.  You're at the bottom of a deep hole ... take a rest.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #173 on: November 30, 2007, 03:17:22 pm »
I disagree.  I don't see how he could make those comments without possessing the attitude that no one else, either here or in the Astros organization, is either aware of or can properly interpret the numbers as he has.  That is clearly a provocation.  Does he think we're all stupid?

???

People can't look at something and come to different conclusions?

Not a provocation at all.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #174 on: November 30, 2007, 03:21:12 pm »
with this current roster, bourn/berkman/pence/lee/wigginton/matsui/towles/everett

It's clear to me that you've never even had to fill out a lineup card in a co-ed slowpitch softball game.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #175 on: November 30, 2007, 03:26:59 pm »
This is contradiction, not argument.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #176 on: November 30, 2007, 03:33:13 pm »
???

People can't look at something and come to different conclusions?

Not a provocation at all.

Don't act all innocent on us now, did you not type

"What's dumber than that is having somebody with Matsui's obp hitting 2nd." 

Who are you saying is dumb?  Us?  The Astros?  Because clearly the Astros are going to have Matsui hit second, as did the Rockies.   Then there's the implication that those people who have described why Matsui is a good choice for the 2 don't know what they're talking about because they haven't watched every game Matsui played.  And are basing their comments on something that they can not see.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #177 on: November 30, 2007, 03:37:06 pm »
Don't act all innocent on us now, did you not type

"What's dumber than that is having somebody with Matsui's obp hitting 2nd." 

Who are you saying is dumb?  Us?  The Astros?  Because clearly the Astros are going to have Matsui hit second, as did the Rockies.   Then there's the implication that those people who have described why Matsui is a good choice for the 2 don't know what they're talking about because they haven't watched every game Matsui played.  And are basing their comments on something that they can not see.

Did you not see what I was replying to??  :D

Relax, when somebody calls you dumb sometimes a natural reaction is to want to come back with something. I'm not calling out the Astros or anything like that.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #178 on: November 30, 2007, 03:37:32 pm »
I've actually seen him play quite a few times.  Watched him during warm up drills during his first game at MMP with the Mets.  He was the only player to come out and jogged 3 or 4 laps and threw a helluva long toss session.  He was effortlessly firing rockets from deep out field.  I don't know what that means other than maybe a strong arm and good work ethic.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #179 on: November 30, 2007, 03:39:59 pm »
Pretty much everyone is calling your ideas dumb.

The Astros signed him to bat second. End of discussion. Batting him sixth makes no sense at all. I also believe you never filled out a lineup card.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #180 on: November 30, 2007, 03:40:56 pm »
Don't act all innocent on us now, did you not type

"What's dumber than that is having somebody with Matsui's obp hitting 2nd." 

Who are you saying is dumb?  Us?  The Astros?  Because clearly the Astros are going to have Matsui hit second, as did the Rockies.   Then there's the implication that those people who have described why Matsui is a good choice for the 2 don't know what they're talking about because they haven't watched every game Matsui played.  And are basing their comments on something that they can not see.

The Rockies who went to the World Series last year, those Rockies *had* Matsui batting second?  OMG!  Idiots!

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #181 on: November 30, 2007, 03:41:49 pm »
with this current roster, bourn/berkman/pence/lee/wigginton/matsui/towles/everett

Berkman is not batting second now or ever.  Next point?

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #182 on: November 30, 2007, 03:43:23 pm »
I don't know what that means other than maybe a strong arm and good work ethic.

It means that during April some other teams who haven't been paying attention are going to lose a baserunner or two because they forgot that it isn't still Biggio out there throwing moon balls to 3B on outfield relays.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #183 on: November 30, 2007, 03:46:50 pm »
Pretty much everyone is calling your ideas dumb.

The Astros signed him to bat second. End of discussion. Batting him sixth makes no sense at all. I also believe you never filled out a lineup card.

The guy is in love with Burke, plain and simple and to make an argument for Burke to stay an Astro and play everyday, he needs to put Matsui in the six hole.  Matsui in the six hole versus Burke in the six hole is more the issue.  But you still have the issue of Matsui on defense and Burke on defense at the 2nd base bag is not an item that can be defended... at all.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #184 on: November 30, 2007, 03:51:14 pm »
The guy is in love with Burke, plain and simple and to make an argument for Burke to stay an Astro and play everyday, he needs to put Matsui in the six hole.  Matsui in the six hole versus Burke in the six hole is more the issue.  But you still have the issue of Matsui on defense and Burke on defense at the 2nd base bag is not an item that can be defended... at all.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #185 on: November 30, 2007, 03:56:18 pm »
Did you not see what I was replying to??  :D

Relax, when somebody calls you dumb sometimes a natural reaction is to want to come back with something. I'm not calling out the Astros or anything like that.

Yeah I did see what you were replying to, the counter to your contention that Berkman should bat 2nd.  And, I don't need your opinion about when to relax.  The Astros, the Rockies, several people here who have proven records of knowing what the fuck they're talking about, think Matsui is a good fit to hit 2nd for the Astros in 08.   On what grounds are you disagreeing with that?  That you have superior knowledge?  That we haven't watched Matsui enough?  That you can see something in the statistics that the Astros can not?  That you're actually a crawfish in disguise?

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #186 on: November 30, 2007, 04:18:37 pm »
Yeah I did see what you were replying to, the counter to your contention that Berkman should bat 2nd.  And, I don't need your opinion about when to relax.  The Astros, the Rockies, several people here who have proven records of knowing what the fuck they're talking about, think Matsui is a good fit to hit 2nd for the Astros in 08.   On what grounds are you disagreeing with that?  That you have superior knowledge?  That we haven't watched Matsui enough?  That you can see something in the statistics that the Astros can not?  That you're actually a crawfish in disguise?

So nobody can ever disagree with what the Astros do?

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #187 on: November 30, 2007, 04:23:50 pm »
So nobody can ever disagree with what the Astros do?

Yes.  But it's got to be backed up with a well thought out arguement.  Your's isn't.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #188 on: November 30, 2007, 04:24:24 pm »
So nobody can ever disagree with what the Astros do?

Sure.  Disagree all you want... about baseball.

I doubt anyone who is talking baseball will be taken seriously if Berkman is what you are saying should be the #2 hitter in this NL club (or any NL Club).  You're talking fantacrap while they're talking baseball.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #189 on: November 30, 2007, 04:26:07 pm »
So nobody can ever disagree with what the Astros do?

That is such a cliche, I'm not arguing that.  I'm questioning your sanctimonious mouthings about your "attitude". 

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #190 on: November 30, 2007, 04:29:49 pm »
Did you not see what I was replying to??  :D

Relax, when somebody calls you dumb sometimes a natural reaction is to want to come back with something. I'm not calling out the Astros or anything like that.

I've stayed out of this long enough, and I will continue to do so.  But for fuck's sake take the smilies and emoticons back to AD.  If your opinions weren't asinine in their own right, I would immediately write them off as such solely by the presence of the confused smiley.  There, I feel better now.  

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #191 on: November 30, 2007, 04:37:09 pm »
I've stayed out of this long enough, and I will continue to do so.  But for fuck's sake take the smilies and emoticons back to AD.  If your opinions weren't asinine in their own right, I would immediately write them off as such solely by the presence of the confused smiley.  There, I feel better now.  

Can't we just disable those things for everybody?  It could be our special Christmas gift from the moderators.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #192 on: November 30, 2007, 04:38:12 pm »
The Rockies who went to the World Series last year, those Rockies *had* Matsui batting second?  OMG!  Idiots!

Not only that, the Rockies broadcasters were very happy to see him back in the 2 hole when Willy T came back.  I remember them saying something like "It's good to get Matsui back batting 2nd where he belongs."

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #193 on: November 30, 2007, 04:43:05 pm »
Can't we just disable those things for everybody?  It could be our special Christmas gift from the moderators.

How else would we be able to spot the terminally precious?

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #194 on: November 30, 2007, 04:43:48 pm »
How else would we be able to spot the terminally precious?

I agree ... they serve as a useful warning.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #195 on: November 30, 2007, 04:50:19 pm »
Hate to jump in on the losing side here, and so late, but I'm not a Kaz fan. He's the best option they have now (Burke? No), and maybe the best 2-hole option (Berkman? Crazy.), and possibly the best plug they could get on the FA market. His contract won't kill them, I actually think it's quite reasonable considering the crazy-high contract market nowadays. With that said...

Most of his performance will depend on Bourne. I think that he's going to have a comparably scary lineup behind him now compared to what he had in Colorado (Pence/Berkman/Lee vs. Holliday/Helton/Tulo), so the way pitchers attack him will most likely be similar. His best situational hitting was done with a guy on first or second base, going:

1b: .333/.367
2b: .313/.365

I am, however, concerned about the lack of sacrifices. He had eight of them all year last season, with a total of 162 ABs with runners on. I think that his signing obviously improves over the potential Chris Burke Experience next year, and was perhaps the best that the 'stros could do in their present situation, but my expectations are tempered.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #196 on: November 30, 2007, 04:56:26 pm »
...my expectations are tempered.

Everyones is.  I don't think anyone would say, if asked "who's the optimal 2b for the Astros?", "why that'd be Kaz Matsui!".  But his skills suggest that the Astros have a plan and they're trying to work the plan.  That's encouraging.  I'm just happy they have Bourn so we don't have to hear the twaddle about hitting Pence first.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #197 on: November 30, 2007, 04:57:13 pm »
Hate to jump in on the losing side here, and so late, but I'm not a Kaz fan. He's the best option they have now (Burke? No), and maybe the best 2-hole option (Berkman? Crazy.), and possibly the best plug they could get on the FA market. His contract won't kill them, I actually think it's quite reasonable considering the crazy-high contract market nowadays. With that said...

Most of his performance will depend on Bourne. I think that he's going to have a comparably scary lineup behind him now compared to what he had in Colorado (Pence/Berkman/Lee vs. Holliday/Helton/Tulo), so the way pitchers attack him will most likely be similar. His best situational hitting was done with a guy on first or second base, going:

1b: .333/.367
2b: .313/.365

I am, however, concerned about the lack of sacrifices. He had eight of them all year last season, with a total of 162 ABs with runners on. I think that his signing obviously improves over the potential Chris Burke Experience next year, and was perhaps the best that the 'stros could do in their present situation, but my expectations are tempered.

And that's all perfectly reasonable. I certainly won't pretend that Matsui is the solution to all of the lineups woes, nor would the Astros. Best they could do is exactly right. That you can see that puts you on the right side, so far as I can tell. I don't think anyone's been arguing that Matsui is ideal, and reasonable minds can absolutely disagree on how far from ideal he actually is.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #198 on: November 30, 2007, 05:01:13 pm »
... reasonable minds can absolutely disagree on how far from ideal he actually is.

Not to beat a dead horse, but this thread proves that your comment is not limited to "reasonable minds".
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #199 on: November 30, 2007, 05:04:43 pm »
Most of his performance will depend on Bourne.

His best situational hitting was done with a guy on first or second base, going:

1b: .333/.367
2b: .313/.365


I wish I had said this... guy gets on base, he gets better with his bat control... depends on Bourn, cannot be expected to take up slack for Bourn... Burke puts too much air underneath his swing and negates men getting on base as a #2... all that... oh wait!
« Last Edit: November 30, 2007, 05:07:20 pm by Noe in Austin »

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #200 on: November 30, 2007, 05:09:26 pm »
Everyones is.  I don't think anyone would say, if asked "who's the optimal 2b for the Astros?", "why that'd be Kaz Matsui!".  But his skills suggest that the Astros have a plan and they're trying to work the plan.  That's encouraging.  I'm just happy they have Bourn so we don't have to hear the twaddle about hitting Pence first.

Funny how saying eggszactly what we've all been saying about Matsui is seen as being on the *other* side.  I don't understand sometimes.  I really don't.

It really is about the team concept, about roles, about dependencies, less and less about singular performance metrics, about a plan, about execution of said plan.  All there, all said by just about everyone.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2007, 05:11:21 pm by Noe in Austin »

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #201 on: November 30, 2007, 05:12:57 pm »
I am, however, concerned about the lack of sacrifices. He had eight of them all year last season, with a total of 162 ABs with runners on.
And I would like to see him with less in 08. With Bourne on base, I would far rather see a stolen base
or a hit and run be put on then a SH. Especially that Kaz doesn't hit into DPs.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2007, 05:15:46 pm by SaltyParker »

Noe

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #202 on: November 30, 2007, 05:13:37 pm »
And I would like to see him with less in 08. With Bourne on base, I would far rather see a stolen base
or a hit and run be put on then a SH.

Jimah Williams just rolled over in his grave... and he's not dead yet!

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #203 on: November 30, 2007, 05:15:45 pm »
Funny how saying eggszactly what we've all been saying about Matsui is seen as being on the *other* side.  I don't understand sometimes.  I really don't.

It really is about the team concept, about roles, about dependencies, less and less about singular performance metrics, about a plan, about execution of said plan.  All there, all said by just about everyone.

It's a lot like church ... all the regulars have heard it before and (mostly) agree ... then someone wanders in clueless from off the street ... some because they really agree and haven't been there long enough to recognize it, and others because they are genuinely without a clue.  The latter, who desperately need to stop talking, start listening, and begin to understand, do just the opposite.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #204 on: November 30, 2007, 05:17:41 pm »
It's a lot like church ... all the regulars have heard it before and (mostly) agree ... then someone wanders in clueless from off the street ... some because they really agree and haven't been there long enough to recognize it, and others because they are genuinely without a clue.  The latter, who desperately need to stop talking, start listening, and begin to understand, do just the opposite.

Hmmm ... it has belatedly occurred to me that there are a lot of folk at my church who are going to be upset at being compared to this ribald forum.  Oh well ... I guess it will all work out.
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Arky Vaughan

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #205 on: November 30, 2007, 05:17:56 pm »
And just what the fuck is Burke's projection? Regardless of ends?

Borun leading off and Berkman batting second? I can't decide which one is dumber.

Little hostile there, eh?

I don't know what Burke's projections are, but I do see this:

Burke Career: 1,155 PAs, .249/.319/.377
Matsui Career, Exluding Coors: 1,242, .256/.309/.365

Arky Vaughan

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #206 on: November 30, 2007, 05:19:48 pm »
Well more to my point is with a player getting only 100-200 road at bats, one slump or one park that he had a bad year at can drop his BA down a great deal.    That's why I think it's foolish for anyone to just look at an overall road line and say he can't hit away from coors. 

How about looking at his career 1,242 plate appearances away from Coors and being concerned that he hit .256/.309/.365?

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #207 on: November 30, 2007, 05:20:09 pm »
Little hostile there, eh?

I don't know what Burke's projections are, but I do see this:

Burke Career: 1,155 PAs, .249/.319/.377
Matsui Career, Exluding Coors: 1,242, .256/.309/.365

You've got a lot of catching up to do ... it will be interesting to see a string of 10-15 replies since that one.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #208 on: November 30, 2007, 05:27:42 pm »
How about looking at his career 1,242 plate appearances away from Coors and being concerned that he hit .256/.309/.365?

if you are disregarding Coors, then disregard his time with NYM when he was trying to be a different player.

bitch, bitch, bitch

this is one reason to turn the TZ off any time there is a transaction of any kind.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #209 on: November 30, 2007, 05:30:46 pm »


I am, however, concerned about the lack of sacrifices.

ho.lee.shit. all over again.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #210 on: November 30, 2007, 05:31:46 pm »
Can't we just disable those things for everybody?

The Emoticons should be busy fighting the Autobots, not wasting time on this board...
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #211 on: November 30, 2007, 05:35:08 pm »
The Emoticons should be busy fighting the Autobots, not wasting time on this board...
Oh....I see what you did there.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #212 on: November 30, 2007, 05:36:57 pm »
Little hostile there, eh?

I don't know what Burke's projections are, but I do see this:

Burke Career: 1,155 PAs, .249/.319/.377
Matsui Career, Exluding Coors: 1,242, .256/.309/.365
Exclude MMP and Burke is .240 / Exclude LHP and Burke is a career .229

Arky Vaughan

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #213 on: November 30, 2007, 05:42:39 pm »
if you are disregarding Coors, then disregard his time with NYM when he was trying to be a different player.

bitch, bitch, bitch

this is one reason to turn the TZ off any time there is a transaction of any kind.

I was not aware that it constitutes bitching to observe that the record of Matsui's performance away from the most extreme hitters' park in baseball history looks suprisingly similar to Burke's. I wasn't even aware that the Astros had actually signed Matsui when I made the post. And aren't you just bitching about the bitchers? There are other Web sites you can visit on transaction days if it bothers you so much.

Arky Vaughan

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #214 on: November 30, 2007, 05:44:09 pm »
Exclude MMP and Burke is .240 / Exclude LHP and Burke is a career .229

So it is established that Burke is not a good candidate to start? Agreed entirely. This should not be an issue since the Astros clearly have no inclination to start him.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #215 on: November 30, 2007, 05:49:24 pm »
Hate to jump in on the losing side here, and so late, but I'm not a Kaz fan. He's the best option they have now (Burke? No), and maybe the best 2-hole option (Berkman? Crazy.), and possibly the best plug they could get on the FA market. His contract won't kill them, I actually think it's quite reasonable considering the crazy-high contract market nowadays. With that said...

Most of his performance will depend on Bourne. I think that he's going to have a comparably scary lineup behind him now compared to what he had in Colorado (Pence/Berkman/Lee vs. Holliday/Helton/Tulo), so the way pitchers attack him will most likely be similar. His best situational hitting was done with a guy on first or second base, going:

1b: .333/.367
2b: .313/.365

I am, however, concerned about the lack of sacrifices. He had eight of them all year last season, with a total of 162 ABs with runners on. I think that his signing obviously improves over the potential Chris Burke Experience next year, and was perhaps the best that the 'stros could do in their present situation, but my expectations are tempered.
He had his best numbers with runners in scoring position and 2 out:
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« Last Edit: November 30, 2007, 05:51:12 pm by pots »

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #216 on: November 30, 2007, 05:51:41 pm »
I was not aware that it constitutes bitching to observe that the record of Matsui's performance away from the most extreme hitters' park in baseball history looks suprisingly similar to Burke's. I wasn't even aware that the Astros had actually signed Matsui when I made the post. And aren't you just bitching about the bitchers? There are other Web sites you can visit on transaction days if it bothers you so much.

lots of things your numbers do not make you aware of.

thanks, i will.
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Arky Vaughan

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #217 on: November 30, 2007, 06:15:15 pm »
lots of things your numbers do not make you aware of.

thanks, i will.

And lots of things you miss by your willful ignorance of them. Although I respect you for your knowledge of the game, I don't lose any sleep at night worrying about what your opinion is of me.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #218 on: November 30, 2007, 06:15:54 pm »
Hmmm ... it has belatedly occurred to me that there are a lot of folk at my church who are going to be upset at being compared to this ribald forum.  Oh well ... I guess it will all work out.

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Arky Vaughan

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #219 on: November 30, 2007, 06:40:48 pm »
You've got a lot of catching up to do ... it will be interesting to see a string of 10-15 replies since that one.

I just managed to finish skimming it all, and it doesn't look like the final eight or 10 pages varied drastically from the first couple.

If you like the Matsui signing because of his stellar defense and base-running, I can see that. But inserting Matsui at No. 2 in the line-up despite his poor OBP doesn't look terribly prudent. There is more than reaching base in being an effective No. 2, but our own resident coach has stated that No. 2 is "another on-base spot, should be a good bunter, must be willing to take pitches in steal situations, an ability to hit behind the runner is helpful because this is a hit and run spot." Matsui gives a strong impression of lacking the first skill in the foregoing list for a No. 2 hitter.

Maybe that low OBP away from Coors is a byproduct of playing too many road games at Dodger Stadium and Petco Park. Maybe it's the residue of seasons spent with the Mets trying to be a different kind of player. But at what point do you look at a guy with a .309 OBP in 1,242 plate appearances not at Coors and at least suspect that he may not be all that great at reaching base?

The fact that the Rockies did and the Astros intend to use Matsui at the top of the order doesn't change the fact that he makes a lot of outs for a player batting No. 2. Nor does it necessarily mean that slotting Matsui early in the line-up is a good call. We spent the last two years reading here how bad Willy Taveras and Hunter Pence are in center field, but the Astros still used them there a lot before changing course. And the Rockies continued to use Taveras there last season. Baseball teams aren't infallible.

The Astros obviously weren't going to go with Burke at second base, and even if Matsui were no better than Burke at the plate, the defensive differences will likely be vast. But it's worth pointing out that Burke might not have been their only option. They surely have the reasons, but the Astros decided not to give Mark Loretta the second base job. He may be old and slow and not as good defensively as Matsui, but he gets on base and handles the bat well. Matsui wasn't overly expensive, but would Loretta have cost any more?

What makes for fascinating reading is that every anti-statistical canard has been played here: Do you ever take your head out of your statbooks to watch the games? Fantacrap! OPS-ha-ha-ha! But while Matsui's low OBP over a significant sample size of plate opportunities is ignored or dismissed, his situational statistics with runners on various bases is trotted out as evidence of his suitability for batting No. 2 in total disregard of the fact that those numbers are compiled in a mere handful of plate appearances. So sound statistical evidence is deemed irrelevant while unsound statistical evidence is lauded.

I've posted among a lot of you for a very long time, and I understand how the board works, but I can't quite comprehend the prolific and strong disagreement dished out for questioning why somebody with a limited ability to reach base and a high propensity to make outs should be inserted at the top of the order between a very promising new leadoff man and a nice stack of hitters at 3-4-5. Maybe it's just Make-Fun-of-the-Stat-Geek Day for nominating Lance Berkman to bat second.

But that idea doesn't seem much more bizarre than proposing that Matsui is a "perfect number 2 hitter," and the dissent to that statement has not been nearly so boisterous. Past performance doesn't dictate future performance. I hope Matsui has a great career with the Astros and turns the record of his play to date into a distant memory. That would be a very pleasant but also very unexpected surprise.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2007, 06:45:04 pm by Arky Vaughan »

Jose Cruz III

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #220 on: November 30, 2007, 06:51:35 pm »
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #221 on: November 30, 2007, 06:55:37 pm »
"Willful ignorance"that's a first for me. Just ignore me from now on, Arky, and I'll do the same for you and your "sound statistical analysis." 

Don't waste any respect on me. I do not want it.
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Jose Cruz III

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #222 on: November 30, 2007, 06:58:18 pm »
"Willful ignorance"that's a first for me. Just ignore me from now on, Arky, and I'll do the same for you and your "sound statistical analysis." 

Don't waste any respect on me. I do not want it.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #223 on: November 30, 2007, 07:21:32 pm »
I just managed to finish skimming it all, and it doesn't look like the final eight or 10 pages varied drastically from the first couple.

If you like the Matsui signing because of his stellar defense and base-running, I can see that. But inserting Matsui at No. 2 in the line-up despite his poor OBP doesn't look terribly prudent. There is more than reaching base in being an effective No. 2, but our own resident coach has stated that No. 2 is "another on-base spot, should be a good bunter, must be willing to take pitches in steal situations, an ability to hit behind the runner is helpful because this is a hit and run spot." Matsui gives a strong impression of lacking the first skill in the foregoing list for a No. 2 hitter.

Maybe that low OBP away from Coors is a byproduct of playing too many road games at Dodger Stadium and Petco Park. Maybe it's the residue of seasons spent with the Mets trying to be a different kind of player. But at what point do you look at a guy with a .309 OBP in 1,242 plate appearances not at Coors and at least suspect that he may not be all that great at reaching base?

The fact that the Rockies did and the Astros intend to use Matsui at the top of the order doesn't change the fact that he makes a lot of outs for a player batting No. 2. Nor does it necessarily mean that slotting Matsui early in the line-up is a good call. We spent the last two years reading here how bad Willy Taveras and Hunter Pence are in center field, but the Astros still used them there a lot before changing course. And the Rockies continued to use Taveras there last season. Baseball teams aren't infallible.

The Astros obviously weren't going to go with Burke at second base, and even if Matsui were no better than Burke at the plate, the defensive differences will likely be vast. But it's worth pointing out that Burke might not have been their only option. They surely have the reasons, but the Astros decided not to give Mark Loretta the second base job. He may be old and slow and not as good defensively as Matsui, but he gets on base and handles the bat well. Matsui wasn't overly expensive, but would Loretta have cost any more?

What makes for fascinating reading is that every anti-statistical canard has been played here: Do you ever take your head out of your statbooks to watch the games? Fantacrap! OPS-ha-ha-ha! But while Matsui's low OBP over a significant sample size of plate opportunities is ignored or dismissed, his situational statistics with runners on various bases is trotted out as evidence of his suitability for batting No. 2 in total disregard of the fact that those numbers are compiled in a mere handful of plate appearances. So sound statistical evidence is deemed irrelevant while unsound statistical evidence is lauded.

I've posted among a lot of you for a very long time, and I understand how the board works, but I can't quite comprehend the prolific and strong disagreement dished out for questioning why somebody with a limited ability to reach base and a high propensity to make outs should be inserted at the top of the order between a very promising new leadoff man and a nice stack of hitters at 3-4-5. Maybe it's just Make-Fun-of-the-Stat-Geek Day for nominating Lance Berkman to bat second.

But that idea doesn't seem much more bizarre than proposing that Matsui is a "perfect number 2 hitter," and the dissent to that statement has not been nearly so boisterous. Past performance doesn't dictate future performance. I hope Matsui has a great career with the Astros and turns the record of his play to date into a distant memory. That would be a very pleasant but also very unexpected surprise.

So, given the roster as it stands, who would you rather see hitting second?
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #224 on: November 30, 2007, 07:41:17 pm »
Arky, as for my part, Berkman in the 2-hole is fantacrap and Cooper, indirectly, explained why.

Pitching, speed, defense.  Matsui doesn't pitch but he's got speed and he's a very good defender.  He fits exactly what SmithWade want in the field.  The hitting will work itself out.  I think the numbers you've thrown out there lack a bit of context and therefore lack weight in your arguement.  How many of his at-bats were in the context expected by the Astros?  The Astros are expecting/hoping Bourn to set the offensive tone.  Matsui's job is to keep the tone moving to the middle of the order.  He's not expected to carry the team or set the tone.  That means don't GIDP; hit behind the runner on a hit and run; move the runners up; get an occasional RBI...  But, to be sure, the offense is secondary to the defense for Matsui in SmithWade's scheme.  He's the best available option to hit 2nd and be the Astros 2b based on the criteria set by management; that's why not Loretta.

If you or Burz disagree with management philosophy then say so.  I happen to like the philosophy.  In my estimation this lineup is about the best they could do and still have a few bullets and cash left to try to get a quality starting pitcher and maybe a closer, maybe.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #225 on: November 30, 2007, 07:59:57 pm »
There is no context in a page of numbers. It is a product of a specific math process. It does not take into account the player's approach, what management has asked him to do, injuries or any other external factor. It tells nothing more than what the player has done so far.

The Astros and Tal Smith can use a slide rule as well as anyone here, but posters who do not make these judgments for a living continually say directly "they could have done better" or subtly "his OBP is not good enough." Well, damn, why is WadeSmith in charge anyway? The real geniuses are right here with their pencils sharpened and ready.

Great post, Jacksonian.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #226 on: November 30, 2007, 08:00:59 pm »
It's a lot like church ... all the regulars have heard it before and (mostly) agree ... then someone wanders in clueless from off the street ... some because they really agree and haven't been there long enough to recognize it, and others because they are genuinely without a clue.  The latter, who desperately need to stop talking, start listening, and begin to understand, do just the opposite.

Seems to me someone said this much more concisely, a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #227 on: November 30, 2007, 08:08:22 pm »
Gene Stallings once said that if a coach starts listening to fans before long he will sitting with them.

I guess that would apply to GM's too?
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #228 on: November 30, 2007, 08:59:13 pm »
Pretty much everyone is calling your ideas dumb.

The Astros signed him to bat second. End of discussion. Batting him sixth makes no sense at all. I also believe you never filled out a lineup card.

Heck, I don't think he even knows what a lineup card IS, much less ever tried to fill one out....

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #229 on: November 30, 2007, 09:14:42 pm »
Arky, I'm sure that's a lot of shit to read at once, but you totally missed the crux of most of the backlash. These were primarily not Matsui-is-the-answer posts, nor were they posts picking on the use of stats. The shitstorm was over someone (again) using one isolated stat to evaluate a transaction without any context of what's available or realistic.

You know as well as anyone that when somebody steps in here with the pretense of knowing better than management, they're already fighting an uphill battle. Cherry-picking random stats while pleading willful ignorance of everything surrounding it isn't a recipe for success. And doing all of that while not being able to offer any feasible alternative is going to get you hammered. Frankly, it has nothing to do with Matsui or Burke, and everything to do with presenting a shitty position and digging in.

Reread it, don't, whatever. But let's not pretend it's pick on sabermetrics day in the TZ, because the argument presented so far should be fucking embarrassing to any proper stat geek.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #230 on: November 30, 2007, 10:42:53 pm »


Believe it or not, I avoided this thread today.  I didn't want to try and keep up with it while constantly being interrupted with pointless bullshit, like doing stuff for my job.  I wanted to save it for after I got home, ate dinner, took care of any pending family matters, and finally had an hour or so blocked off to stretch out in the easy chair with the laptop.

It was worth the wait.  Great thread.

Because the Earl Weaver theory worked so well for last year's club?

I don't have anything substantive to add here, but in the interest of historical accuracy, I want to clear up something about Earl Weaver and his managing style.

Because he is admired by many of the same sort of people who would tell you Berkman should hit 2nd, Weaver gets lumped in with them and the sort of three-walks-and-a-cloud-of-dust, it-works-great-in-fantasy offensive philosophy favored by some of those people.  I don't have a problem with anyone admiring Weaver.  I admire him greatly, myself.  But he was by no means a proponent of the sort of stuff he sometimes gets associated with.

Don't take this wrong, MM, I am not trying to single you out.  I see this a lot.

Weaver's offenses featured all the things you'd ideally want in order to score a lot of runs - fast guys who could get on base at the top (Don Buford, Al Bumbry), middle of the order hitters with power and OBP skills (both Robinsons, Boog Powell, Bobby Grich, Ken Singleton, etc.), a deceptively effective catching platoon (Hendricks/Etchebarren, Duncan/Hendricks, Dempsey/Graham, Dempsey/Nolan), and defense-first guys with some narrowly defined offensive attributes, which Weaver tried to optimize (Paul Blair, Belanger, Dauer, DeCinces and, for that matter, Brooks Robinson.)  The Baltimore teams Weaver managed were consistently at the top of their league in runs scored, OBP, etc.  They often did this without a slew of great stars.  Weaver was good at finding guys no one else wanted much, but who were useful in defined roles.  He was masterful at putting together platoons.  He had a long bench full of misfits, role players, and ne'er-do-wells who he usually managed to get the most out of.

But what those Baltimore teams were really known for, in their time, was pitching, defense, and speed.  Weaver had a pitching coach, Ray Miller, who may have been the best of his era.  They conisistently fielded an outstanding "big four" of starter pitchers, and a bullpen of role players (Weaver was one of the first managers to use his relievers one inning at a time with regularity.)  They had maybe one of the best "up-the-middle" defenses ever in the mid-1970s (C platoon-Belanger SS-Grich 2B-Blair CF), and they always had guys who could run.

Weaver, who tended to use bat-handling middle infielders in the two-slot, would never consider Berkman at #2, I am guessing.  He knew a guy like that wouldn't hit the same way (or likely as well) at #2 as he would at #3 or lower, and it would be wasting a valuable resource.

If the Astros had followed the Earl Weaver theory the last few years, there probably would not be a need for this sort of thead.




Arky Vaughan

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #231 on: November 30, 2007, 11:44:25 pm »
There is no context in a page of numbers. It is a product of a specific math process. It does not take into account the player's approach, what management has asked him to do, injuries or any other external factor. It tells nothing more than what the player has done so far.

But what a player has done so far, while not determinative of future performance, is at least suggestive of future performance. Context of course matters, because a player who is injured or who is asked to take a particular approach may perform differently than if he were healthy or were asked to take a different approach. But the longer a player performs at a certain level, over a number of seasons in a variety of contexts, the more reason there is to believe that the record of that performance is representative not only of the context in which he compiled that performance but is also an indication of his abilities and skills that resulted in that performance.

To characterize all statistics as nothing more than a mere mathematical process generated by context is to pretend that the differences in skills and abilities that exist among players cannot be discerned from the record of their performance. The corollary that follows from this point is that if Matsui is healthy and asked to do things differently, he will perform differently. Maybe that will be the case. As an Astros fan, I hope so. But there is the possibility that the fairly low OBPs he has produced so far might actually have something to do with his skill and ability, as opposed to just context, and it would be very surprising if he is able to reach base significantly more often, often enough to justify batting No. 2, for the Astros in 2008.

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The Astros and Tal Smith can use a slide rule as well as anyone here, but posters who do not make these judgments for a living continually say directly "they could have done better" or subtly "his OBP is not good enough." Well, damn, why is WadeSmith in charge anyway? The real geniuses are right here with their pencils sharpened and ready.

You don't have to pretend to know more than Smith and Wade to question whether a player who makes outs as frequently as Matsui should be at the top of the order. Just as you don't have to pretend to know more than Purpura and Garner to question whether Taveras or Pence should've been playing center field. The Astros have their reasons for believing that Matsui has some skills that make him a fit batting No. 2 on this team. Just as they had their reasons for trotting Taveras and Pence out to center field for three years. They're paid to make the tough decisions because of their expertise and experience. Sometimes they make the right call. Sometimes they don't. But there's nothing heretical about wondering whether this might be one of the cases where they aren't getting it right.

Arky Vaughan

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #232 on: December 01, 2007, 12:02:44 am »
Arky, as for my part, Berkman in the 2-hole is fantacrap and Cooper, indirectly, explained why.

Pitching, speed, defense.  Matsui doesn't pitch but he's got speed and he's a very good defender.  He fits exactly what SmithWade want in the field.  The hitting will work itself out.  I think the numbers you've thrown out there lack a bit of context and therefore lack weight in your arguement.  How many of his at-bats were in the context expected by the Astros?  The Astros are expecting/hoping Bourn to set the offensive tone.  Matsui's job is to keep the tone moving to the middle of the order.  He's not expected to carry the team or set the tone.  That means don't GIDP; hit behind the runner on a hit and run; move the runners up; get an occasional RBI...  But, to be sure, the offense is secondary to the defense for Matsui in SmithWade's scheme.  He's the best available option to hit 2nd and be the Astros 2b based on the criteria set by management; that's why not Loretta.

If you or Burz disagree with management philosophy then say so.  I happen to like the philosophy.  In my estimation this lineup is about the best they could do and still have a few bullets and cash left to try to get a quality starting pitcher and maybe a closer, maybe.

Maybe it's less a disagreement with the philosophy than it is a disagreement with the execution. Improving the up-the-middle-defensive will help the team allow fewer runs, which will mean they need to score fewer runs to win. There are two issues here.

The first issue is that just because you want to put together strong up-the-middle defense does not mean that you have to bat Matsui second. He's a great defender. Bat Pence-Berkman-Lee-Wigginton 2-3-4-5 and decide which of Matsui, Towles or Everett to bat sixth. The second issue is whether the desire for strong up-the-middle defense needs to be balanced with finding players who can fill out your line-up adequately. Matsui is a better offensive player than Everett, but not by much. A team that hopes to score enough runs to be competitive, even with strong pitching and defense, can only have so many players in the line-up who reach base infrequently and make outs frequently. I understand that building a team is not a pie-in-the-sky project where you just look at the best players in the league and plug them into your roster. I also recognize that Matsui was not plan A for the Astros. But ultimately they pulled the trigger on him with the apparent intention that he will bat second. He may very well be a liability batting there. A lot of people seem to be disregarding that.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #233 on: December 01, 2007, 12:10:28 am »
Whew, just got through this whole mess.

OK, I think we all can agree that Matsui might be the best option for the Astros 2B given those that are currently available (to our knowledge) based on the WadeSmith professed philosophy of "Pitching, Defense and speed and the hitting will take care of itself."

If you can at least buy that part and it is true that the Astros have signed Matsui (which would make the point moot anyway (or was it moo... )).  Then you have to look at the line-up and options.

Well the team (Cooper) has come out and stated pretty much that Bourn is lead-off and Pence/Berkman/Lee make 3/4/5 in some order.  That leaves the following people to fill 2/6/7/8: Everett, Matsui, Towles and Wigginton.

Just breaking those down, I have not heard anyone suggest Wigginton or Towles to be top of the line-up types.  So unless something really odd happens I think we can take them out of the mix.  That leave Everett and Matsui for the options at the 2 spot in the line-up.

Now if we just take Arky's Matsui numbers sans Coors of a .309 OBP and think that looks pretty terrible, what would we think of Everett's .299 OBP instead?  Now I understand Everett has most of his ABs in the 7/8 spots, but still, I am guessing he is not going to turn into a .333 OBP guy just by moving him to the 2 spot and the sample size on AE in the 2 spot is just too small to believe that is a clear indicator of his production there.

In the end, the Astros seem to have two choices for the 2-spot in the order, Matsui and Everett.  From an OBP neither is desirable, but seems to me, if I were the Astros I might be leaning toward the player who has more experience in the role that a 2-hole hitter fills.  And that seems to be hands down Matsui.  So any futher mental masturbations should be kept in context of the Astros options and not vs the "ideal".

DVauthrin

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #234 on: December 01, 2007, 02:02:32 am »
How about looking at his career 1,242 plate appearances away from Coors and being concerned that he hit .256/.309/.365?

1)  He became a solid starting caliber player in colorado, based on the little I saw of him.  He seemed to be playing with confidence in his abilities. 

2)   He's streaky, that's what looking at his road numbers since the trade to coors told me.

These were his hits per at bats numbers per road trip in 2007:

10/27: .370 BA
3/17: .176 BA
8/23:  .348 BA
7/33:  .212 BA
3/28:  .107 BA
8/17:  .471 BA
3/21:  .143 BA
7/21:  .333 BA
4/26:  .154 BA

6/25 on the road in 6 postseason games:  .240 BA

He ran either very good or very bad on his road trips at about a 50/50 clip.  He also had only 18 extra base hits at coors compared to 16 on the road so coors didn't boost his power numbers at all.

In 2006 taking out trips of only one 3 game set or limited at bats:

11/37:  .297
6/27:  .222
7/23:  .304
4/19:  .211

Again, same streakiness.    He had 6 road extra base hits after the trade to colorado in 2006 to 4 home extra base hits.   

So unless you think coors field is way easier for kaz matsui to hit a bunch of singles in than any other park, his other numbers weren't any different.   I'm not saying he's my favorite player or he was my first choice, but I think it's wrong to label him a guy who can only hit in coors field.    He's just streaky wherever he is playing.

2007 Homestand's:

14/40:  .350(he goes 4/8 to start homestand, then 0/7, then 10/25 in two series)
5/20:  .250
9/20: .450(he had a 5/5 game in there as well, he was 4/15 the other games thus illustrating said streakiness)
4/21:  .190
10/22:  .455(he was red hot here, 2 hits or more in 4 of his 5 games started at home with only one o fer in there)
7/25:  .280(he went 2/12 in one series, 5 for 13 in the other in a 7 game home stand)
5/20:  .250

He's still streaky, but he had more over the top hot streaks at home and his bad homestands weren't that bad.

3)  I personally would much rather have had castillo or iguchi because I felt there was more risk with matsui(he also carries injury issues), but any of the 3 are better than burke.

The bottom line is I think that while matsui clearly enjoyed coors field, I don't think he's a case of a one trick pony.   He just is a streaky hitter anywhere he plays imho.   



« Last Edit: December 01, 2007, 02:07:30 am by DVauthrin »
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #235 on: December 01, 2007, 05:49:04 am »
Amazing. Matsui's defense is outstanding. Perfect number 2 hitter. Proven winner. Hopefully opens the door in Houston for Asian baseball talent. All for less then what we paid Biggio last year. What in the hell has Burke ever proved except that he can whine loudly. I like everything Wade is doing and it continues to be a work in progress.


Matzui is a dud. I'd pass. He had a career year last year. Acid test: Ask the steM, who need a 2B, if they would take him back. The answer is no.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #236 on: December 01, 2007, 07:57:59 am »
Matzui is a dud. I'd pass. He had a career year last year. Acid test: Ask the steM, who need a 2B, if they would take him back. The answer is no.

ok, this thread officially is over. this is the exact same post as about a day ago. it has gone on infinite loop.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #237 on: December 01, 2007, 08:35:21 am »
ok, this thread officially is over. this is the exact same post as about a day ago. it has gone on infinite loop.


I think Happy operates on infinite loop.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #238 on: December 01, 2007, 08:36:38 am »
Matzui is a dud. I'd pass. He had a career year last year. Acid test: Ask the steM, who need a 2B, if they would take him back. The answer is no.

How is that a test?  The Astros also tried to get Castillo.  Their second choice was Iguchi, apparently they didn't get much response , and so given their stated criteria, speed, defense, their next best option was Matsui. The Rockies and Cubs, early on the Mariners were also interested.  The Astros 3 for 15 bid beat the Rockies 2 for 10 and the Cubs 3 for 14.  Castillo signed with the Mets for 4 for 25.  Matsui plays good defense, can run the bases, doesn't try to hit a homerun all the time, grounds into practically no double plays, rarely walks or strikes out, puts the ball in play.  Plus the Astros have given Glen Barker out there on the Pacific Rim a little help.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #239 on: December 01, 2007, 10:17:01 am »
a deceptively effective catching platoon (Hendricks/Etchebarren, Duncan/Hendricks, Dempsey/Graham, Dempsey/Nolan)

Was Etchebarren the ugliest man ever to play baseball?
If not, who?
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #240 on: December 01, 2007, 10:17:12 am »
Mr. Happy's succinct post is no different than Arky's verbose posts. The entire purpose of both is to criticise a move because SmithWade did not follow "sound statistical analysis."

Tell me, folks, what should the Astros have done YESTERDAY instead of signing Matsui, if they did?
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #241 on: December 01, 2007, 10:52:55 am »
You're wrong, Jim.

This isn't criticizing the Astros for not following sound statistical analysis. It's posing the question whether a player who has trouble getting on base and makes outs frequently should bat No. 2.

Your own article on line-up construction indicates that No. 2 is an on-base slot. Matsui's track record suggests he's not very good at getting on base.

Tell me, Jim, is Matsui a "perfect No. 2?"

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #242 on: December 01, 2007, 10:55:40 am »
You're wrong, Jim.

This isn't criticizing the Astros for not following sound statistical analysis. It's posing the question whether a player who has trouble getting on base and makes outs frequently should bat No. 2.

Your own article on line-up construction indicates that No. 2 is an on-base slot. Matsui's track record suggests he's not very good at getting on base.

Tell me, Jim, is Matsui a "perfect No. 2?"

What did the Mets tell him to do?
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #243 on: December 01, 2007, 10:58:36 am »
Also, Jim, explain to me the difference between questioning whether Matsui is palatable at No. 2 and questioning whether Pence is palatable in center field. In both cases the Astros were obviously making what they deem the best decisions they can based on what they have available, right? So what was different between now and then?
« Last Edit: December 01, 2007, 11:16:21 am by Arky Vaughan »

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #244 on: December 01, 2007, 11:02:03 am »
I think Happy operates on infinite loop.


Right.  This Matsui guy is some kind of Br'er Usagi or somethin'.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #245 on: December 01, 2007, 11:28:26 am »
What did the Mets tell him to do?

Did they tell him not to worry about reaching base? Will that change like the flip of a switch if the Astros tell him otherwise?

It would be absolutely wonderful for the Astros if Matsui hit anything near the .330/.381/.482 he posted at home last year. Maybe the Rockies told him to do something different and that's what happened.

But given that all players batted .286/.353/.459 in Rockies home games and .260/.337/.401 in Rockies road games, there is reason to believe that Matsui's stellar performance at Coors Field had something to do with the context of the ballpark as opposed to the context of a change in what he was asked to do.




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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #246 on: December 01, 2007, 11:29:51 am »
A more pertinent question, Jim -- why are you and I arguing about this on our cell phones on a Saturday?

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #247 on: December 01, 2007, 11:33:52 am »
1)  He became a solid starting caliber player in colorado, based on the little I saw of him.  He seemed to be playing with confidence in his abilities. 

2)   He's streaky, that's what looking at his road numbers since the trade to coors told me.

These were his hits per at bats numbers per road trip in 2007:

10/27: .370 BA
3/17: .176 BA
8/23:  .348 BA
7/33:  .212 BA
3/28:  .107 BA
8/17:  .471 BA
3/21:  .143 BA
7/21:  .333 BA
4/26:  .154 BA

6/25 on the road in 6 postseason games:  .240 BA

He ran either very good or very bad on his road trips at about a 50/50 clip.  He also had only 18 extra base hits at coors compared to 16 on the road so coors didn't boost his power numbers at all.

In 2006 taking out trips of only one 3 game set or limited at bats:

11/37:  .297
6/27:  .222
7/23:  .304
4/19:  .211

Again, same streakiness.    He had 6 road extra base hits after the trade to colorado in 2006 to 4 home extra base hits.   

So unless you think coors field is way easier for kaz matsui to hit a bunch of singles in than any other park, his other numbers weren't any different.   I'm not saying he's my favorite player or he was my first choice, but I think it's wrong to label him a guy who can only hit in coors field.    He's just streaky wherever he is playing.

2007 Homestand's:

14/40:  .350(he goes 4/8 to start homestand, then 0/7, then 10/25 in two series)
5/20:  .250
9/20: .450(he had a 5/5 game in there as well, he was 4/15 the other games thus illustrating said streakiness)
4/21:  .190
10/22:  .455(he was red hot here, 2 hits or more in 4 of his 5 games started at home with only one o fer in there)
7/25:  .280(he went 2/12 in one series, 5 for 13 in the other in a 7 game home stand)
5/20:  .250

He's still streaky, but he had more over the top hot streaks at home and his bad homestands weren't that bad.

3)  I personally would much rather have had castillo or iguchi because I felt there was more risk with matsui(he also carries injury issues), but any of the 3 are better than burke.

The bottom line is I think that while matsui clearly enjoyed coors field, I don't think he's a case of a one trick pony.   He just is a streaky hitter anywhere he plays imho.

The problem with this is that his sample size outside the hitter's paradise is more significant than just a few road games where he might've been in a slump. He's got well over 1,000 plate appearances hitting in other places. It's worth noting, however, that Matsui was a lot better than the average player at Coors last year:

Matsui .330/.381/.482
Everyone at Coors .286/.353/.459

If he continues to eat home cooking with a similar appetite, then the Astros will have done very well and he'll indeed be an ideal No. 2.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #248 on: December 01, 2007, 11:37:22 am »
But what those Baltimore teams were really known for, in their time, was pitching, defense, and speed.  Weaver had a pitching coach, Ray Miller, who may have been the best of his era.  They conisistently fielded an outstanding "big four" of starter pitchers, and a bullpen of role players (Weaver was one of the first managers to use his relievers one inning at a time with regularity.)  They had maybe one of the best "up-the-middle" defenses ever in the mid-1970s (C platoon-Belanger SS-Grich 2B-Blair CF), and they always had guys who could run.

Grich is one of the most underappreciated players in baseball history. Belanger was awful at the plate but was a luxury the Orioles could afford given how stacked their roster was.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #249 on: December 01, 2007, 12:12:21 pm »
Grich is one of the most underappreciated players in baseball history. Belanger was awful at the plate but was a luxury the Orioles could afford given how stacked their roster was.


Belanger was very limited offensively, he had no power, and for the most part didn't hit much.  He came up with the odd good year, when he hit for average (1969, 1971, 1976) and wasn't terrible.  But his only real consistent offensive assets were that he could draw walks, and he had some speed.  Weaver batted him 8th most of the time, because of his average, but I assume also because he could walk and get to the pitcher's spot, too.  But he also had him hit second quite a bit, against LHP usually, and used him to lead off 10-15 times a season when Buford or Bumbry were given the day off (again vs. LHP.)  So I guess Weaver saw something in him we did not.  Weaver never 'carried' anyone.  He knew one could not sacrifice defense for bats at every position, partcularly up the middle.  But he was very good at still deriving some offensive value from guys like Belanger, who were limited.  I'd love to see what he'd do with Adam Everett.

Belanger was, of course, possibly the best defensive SS of his era.

Grich may be underappreciated today, but he wasn't when he played.  He was regularly an All-Star, and was generally recognized as one of the best players in the league.  He signed one of the first big multi-million dollar free agent conracts, when he left for California in 1977.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #250 on: December 01, 2007, 12:30:42 pm »
Was Etchebarren the ugliest man ever to play baseball?
If not, who?
Did Jesse Solomon ever play baseball?
What kind of name is Etchebarren anyway?


Latvian or Estonian, I think.

Some people say Eddie Collins was the ugliest.  I wouldn't know.

In one of his books, Earl Weaver goes into great detail about his ideas for a catching platoon.  When he took over in Baltimore, he specifically went out and got Elrod Hendricks, who he had come across a few times in his days as a minor league manager and remembered.  Hendricks was floundering in the minors at the time, but Weaver saw a left-handed hitter with some power and a solid catcher.  Hendricks and Etchebarren platooned for years, including through two World Series.  Later, Weaver pushed hard to acquire Earl Williams from Atlanta.  Williams had big time power, but was also a pretty good catcher, which was sometimes overlooked.  That was probably a mistake - Williams didn't really pan out, and he and Weaver had a, well, interesting relationship.  Anyway, after that Weaver went out and got an underappreciated Rick Dempsey and jut kept on winning.  Weaver was always thinking about catching.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2007, 12:33:16 pm by strosrays »

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #251 on: December 01, 2007, 03:05:19 pm »
A more pertinent question, Jim -- why are you and I arguing about this on our cell phones on a Saturday?

This is precisely what I found most interesting about the discussion over the last day or two.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #252 on: December 01, 2007, 03:18:51 pm »
The problem with this is that his sample size outside the hitter's paradise is more significant than just a few road games where he might've been in a slump. He's got well over 1,000 plate appearances hitting in other places. It's worth noting, however, that Matsui was a lot better than the average player at Coors last year:

Matsui .330/.381/.482
Everyone at Coors .286/.353/.459

If he continues to eat home cooking with a similar appetite, then the Astros will have done very well and he'll indeed be an ideal No. 2.

I would argue Kaz Matsui never had confidence in NY, whereas he developed it with a fresh start in colorado.    However he did hit .269/.323/.400 away from shea in 2004 in 245 at bats his rookie year.   Not great but far from terrible.   So it's not like he isn't capable of being solid.   

He hit .264 the next yr away from shea but struggled with only a .302 OBP.    But he's a much more confident and better player now than he was in NY.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #253 on: December 01, 2007, 04:26:33 pm »
You're wrong, Jim.

This isn't criticizing the Astros for not following sound statistical analysis. It's posing the question whether a player who has trouble getting on base and makes outs frequently should bat No. 2.

Your own article on line-up construction indicates that No. 2 is an on-base slot. Matsui's track record suggests he's not very good at getting on base.

Tell me, Jim, is Matsui a "perfect No. 2?"

Yeah, the speed and defense thing is understood but why does he have to bat 2nd?

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #254 on: December 01, 2007, 04:56:00 pm »
Yeah, the speed and defense thing is understood but why does he have to bat 2nd?

Bat control.  Keep up.

And this whole shit about his OBP is not ignored at all.  He has to do better and we've all said so and are willing to wait until the fucking season gets underway to find out how that works out *based on the lineup construction (Bourn/Matsui/Pence/Berkman/Lee)*.  See, that is called context and well provided in this thread if people would just bother to fucking read. 

This whole thing starts up again because of OBP only (in isolation) and ignores entirely the context of what has been said, what was rebuffed (Berkman batting second... please) and no less by a guy who is well respected around here.  It's really looking like it's about just insulting the intelligence of the people who not once have argued that Matsui is a perfect OBP guy.  Not. One. Single. Time!

Matsui is a good #2 for Houston only if Bourn is doing what they fully expect him to do.  That would then play to the strength of what Matsui does best with his bat control.  And then you get the added benefit of his defense superior to anything Houston has had in almost 8 years.  THAT makes the pitching so much better.  Matsui is a *FIT* for this team because of what he brings, not because of some isolated stat that speaks to a lineup position.  In a constructed lineup that they've put together in Houston, Matsui is a good #2.  Bourn is the key and Pence is another (avoid sophmore slump at all cost) to *make that position in the lineup work!*  Get it?  Not OBP in isolation, because if Bourn slumps and is miserable at getting on-base, then Matsui will *NOT* make up for it and he's never going to see a pitch to hit.  That is not good for a guy who has problems with OBP.  But give him a pitch to hit, and Matsui is damn good.  How, pray tell, will he get his pitches to hit?  Man at first or second base maybe?  Pence hitting behind him having an excellent season?

YES! Bingo, that's it... damn, is that so hard to fucking understand?

It is a simple concept that you don't need a fucking slide rule to figure out nor question the intelligence of this forum nor the acumen of the Houston Astros.  It is without a doubt what frustrates the hell out of people from those inclined to look at performance stats.  The whole damn "I know better than you" attitude and "you're so fucking stupid" approach to saying it by some prone to this is getting old everywhere else.  It is rarely welcomed here.

Arky, you're better than this.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2007, 05:02:57 pm by Noe in Austin »

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #255 on: December 01, 2007, 08:59:02 pm »
I thought we weren't going to have this conversation again, Noe. Since you brought it up, though, I'll leave it at this. This has nothing to do with failing to read or comprehend what you or anyone else wrote. You and I have a fundamental disagreement on approach and context vs. measured performance. Skeptical though I may be, I hope you're right and Matsui slots successfully in between Bourne and Pence/Berkman/Lee.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #256 on: December 01, 2007, 09:04:41 pm »
Then get a job in baseball, Arky, and show them how to do it. Pedantic arrogance, and you are smarter than them all.Noe said it than I ever could, but I do not think you are better than that. Those posts are you.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #257 on: December 01, 2007, 09:48:04 pm »
Lost in the debate, Matsui officially-unofficially-officially has signed.
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #258 on: December 01, 2007, 09:50:11 pm »
Hey, Jim, can I please borrow your application to work for the Astros? You know, the one you submitted when you questioned the Astros for playing Taveras and Pence in center field? Accused the Astros of panicking when they brought up Pence? Castigated the Astros for throwing Purpura and Garner overboard?

Somebody posited that the stalest cliche on these boards is asking, "Are the Astros ever wrong?" I submit that it's your infinite loop accusing anyone who questions a decision of thinking he knows more than the Astros. Yourself and your buddies excepted, of course.

At least Noe addresses an issue squarely on the merits rather than hiding behind a tired debating trick. By the way, I thought you were going to put me on ignore.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2007, 11:18:57 pm by Arky Vaughan »

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #259 on: December 01, 2007, 09:56:21 pm »
Bat control.  Keep up.

And this whole shit about his OBP is not ignored at all.  He has to do better and we've all said so and are willing to wait until the fucking season gets underway to find out how that works out *based on the lineup construction (Bourn/Matsui/Pence/Berkman/Lee)*.  See, that is called context and well provided in this thread if people would just bother to fucking read. 

This whole thing starts up again because of OBP only (in isolation) and ignores entirely the context of what has been said, what was rebuffed (Berkman batting second... please) and no less by a guy who is well respected around here.  It's really looking like it's about just insulting the intelligence of the people who not once have argued that Matsui is a perfect OBP guy.  Not. One. Single. Time!

Matsui is a good #2 for Houston only if Bourn is doing what they fully expect him to do.  That would then play to the strength of what Matsui does best with his bat control.  And then you get the added benefit of his defense superior to anything Houston has had in almost 8 years.  THAT makes the pitching so much better.  Matsui is a *FIT* for this team because of what he brings, not because of some isolated stat that speaks to a lineup position.  In a constructed lineup that they've put together in Houston, Matsui is a good #2.  Bourn is the key and Pence is another (avoid sophmore slump at all cost) to *make that position in the lineup work!*  Get it?  Not OBP in isolation, because if Bourn slumps and is miserable at getting on-base, then Matsui will *NOT* make up for it and he's never going to see a pitch to hit.  That is not good for a guy who has problems with OBP.  But give him a pitch to hit, and Matsui is damn good.  How, pray tell, will he get his pitches to hit?  Man at first or second base maybe?  Pence hitting behind him having an excellent season?

YES! Bingo, that's it... damn, is that so hard to fucking understand?

It is a simple concept that you don't need a fucking slide rule to figure out nor question the intelligence of this forum nor the acumen of the Houston Astros.  It is without a doubt what frustrates the hell out of people from those inclined to look at performance stats.  The whole damn "I know better than you" attitude and "you're so fucking stupid" approach to saying it by some prone to this is getting old everywhere else.  It is rarely welcomed here.

Arky, you're better than this.

He hit in front of big bats in Colorado, so why do you think he would suddenly do that much better in front of the Astro big bats?


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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #260 on: December 01, 2007, 10:16:07 pm »
Spack needs to lock this thing up.
Goin' for a bus ride.

Arky Vaughan

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #261 on: December 01, 2007, 11:36:10 pm »
Arky, I'm sure that's a lot of shit to read at once, but you totally missed the crux of most of the backlash. These were primarily not Matsui-is-the-answer posts, nor were they posts picking on the use of stats. The shitstorm was over someone (again) using one isolated stat to evaluate a transaction without any context of what's available or realistic.

You know as well as anyone that when somebody steps in here with the pretense of knowing better than management, they're already fighting an uphill battle. Cherry-picking random stats while pleading willful ignorance of everything surrounding it isn't a recipe for success. And doing all of that while not being able to offer any feasible alternative is going to get you hammered. Frankly, it has nothing to do with Matsui or Burke, and everything to do with presenting a shitty position and digging in.

Reread it, don't, whatever. But let's not pretend it's pick on sabermetrics day in the TZ, because the argument presented so far should be fucking embarrassing to any proper stat geek.

I disagree. The post that sparked the lengthy thread asserted that Matsui would not be a significant improvement over Burke, that Matsui would add another low-OBP player in the line-up at No. 2 and that this could be mitigated by moving Berkman, Pence and Lee up in the order.

Obviously the Astros have tired of Burke, who has done very little to justify a starting job, and obviously the Astros aren't going to bat Berkman No. 2 in a million years, but the main thrust of the post, the idea that Matsui is a weakness at the top of the order based on his record of performance to date, doesn't strike me as a particularly outlandish, indefensible or selective argument.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #262 on: December 01, 2007, 11:37:13 pm »
I disagree. The post that sparked the lengthy thread asserted that Matsui would not be a significant improvement over Burke, that Matsui would add another low-OBP player in the line-up at No. 2 and that this could be mitigated by moving Berkman, Pence and Lee up in the order.

Obviously the Astros have tired of Burke, who has done very little to justify a starting job, and obviously the Astros aren't going to bat Berkman No. 2 in a million years, but the main thrust of the post, the idea that Matsui is a weakness at the top of the order based on his record of performance to date doesn't strike me as a particularly outlandish argument.

Out of curiosity, what is your personal opinion about slotting Berkman at 2?

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #263 on: December 01, 2007, 11:52:55 pm »
Out of curiosity, what is your personal opinion about slotting Berkman at 2?

For starters, as you point out, that's not going to happen. It's a purely theoretical idea, so devoting much if any discussion to it doesn't make sense. Moreover, while Berkman is likely to post the highest OBP on the team, you lose a good deal of the benefit of his power by batting him that early in the line-up. You also clog up the basepaths. Berkman was a below-average baserunner in terms of instincts before the knee injury, and while he's not as painfully slow as Lee, he's not someone you want in traffic early on.

Finally, and perhaps most important, if you have Berkman batting second and having to do things like taking pitches so Bourn can work the running game and trying to make contact and hit behind the runner, you lose a lot of the benefit that you have from letting a player with Berkman's natural hitting ability work the count and swing away when he wants to. You're not going to bunt with Berkman, so you deprive yourself of that option with him at No. 2. Simply put, Berkman needs to be in a slot in the line-up where he can do what he does best: draw walks, hit for average and hit for power without worrying much about adjusting his approach depending on the situation.

No. 2 is perhaps the most situationally dependent of all slots in the line-up, with all due respect to No. 5. Berkman should not be in that place. Neither should Lee nor, ideally, Pence. One thing I do look forward to with Matsui at No. 2 is that Japanese players are weaned on little-ball tactics, so if Bourn can do what he appears to be capable of, there will be a lot of stolen bases, bunting and hitting-and-running during Matsui's plate appearances, and that should be very fun to watch.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #264 on: December 02, 2007, 12:53:23 am »
Out of curiosity, what is your personal opinion about slotting Berkman at 2?
Let's see. You are looking to do a quick rebuild of the Astros. So you look at the roster and look for your weaknesses. You need a 1 and 2 hitter for the lineup. You have an iffy closer. You need a CF, a 2B, and a bench bat or two. You have a rookie catcher. You also could use a #2 or #3 starting pitcher and some bullpen help.

So Smith/Wade...........

Re-signed one of the best game calling defensive catchers in the league that age has taken a toll on, who will someday be a manager, to help the rookie catcher. Good move.

Trade the iffy closer for not only the CF they need but also the speedy #1 hitter they need and some bullpen help. Not to mention a prospect. Good move.

Looked in the FA market and signed a bench bat that can play several position to give your starters a rest occasionally, and another bullpen arm. Good move.

Then looked in FA market again and signed a defensive 2B who just happened to be a contact hitter with speed that you could put in the 2 slot in the lineup. Yet another good move.

Matsui's job will be to take 2 or 3 pitches and give Bourn a chance to run. Then he will be counted on to put the ball in play somewhere, preferrably on the ground,  and advance Bourn for the 3-4-5 hitters. Are honestly saying that instead of asking your speedy, fastball hitting, contact hitter do that, you would rather take your 40 homer power hitting franchise player out of the 3 hole and ask him to do this? That would border on complete insanity.


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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #265 on: December 02, 2007, 01:00:59 am »
Finally, and perhaps most important, if you have Berkman batting second and having to do things like taking pitches so Bourn can work the running game and trying to make contact and hit behind the runner, you lose a lot of the benefit that you have from letting a player with Berkman's natural hitting ability work the count and swing away when he wants to. You're not going to bunt with Berkman, so you deprive yourself of that option with him at No. 2. Simply put, Berkman needs to be in a slot in the line-up where he can do what he does best: draw walks, hit for average and hit for power without worrying much about adjusting his approach depending on the situation.

But isn't the approach you are describing limited to a specific situation (Bourn on first, less than 2 out)? It seems like more often than not, that won't be the situation that Matsui is going to be in. Maybe having power at 2 isn't as much of a negative as not having on-base at 2?

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #266 on: December 02, 2007, 01:07:35 am »
But isn't the approach you are describing limited to a specific situation (Bourn on first, less than 2 out)? It seems like more often than not, that won't be the situation that Matsui is going to be in. Maybe having power at 2 isn't as much of a negative as not having on-base at 2?
Are you serious?  Still thinking Berkman is going to hit #2?  Do you see the the Cards batting Pujols #2, the Yanks batting A-Rod #2, the Red Sox batting Ramirez #2, etc etc.  It isn't going to happen.  No MLB manager would do that.  Only a guy filling in a fantasy league lineup card would.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #267 on: December 02, 2007, 01:08:50 am »
Let's see. You are looking to do a quick rebuild of the Astros. So you look at the roster and look for your weaknesses. You need a 1 and 2 hitter for the lineup. You have an iffy closer. You need a CF, a 2B, and a bench bat or two. You have a rookie catcher. You also could use a #2 or #3 starting pitcher and some bullpen help.

So Smith/Wade...........

Re-signed one of the best game calling defensive catchers in the league that age has taken a toll on, who will someday be a manager, to help the rookie catcher. Good move.

Trade the iffy closer for not only the CF they need but also the speedy #1 hitter they need and some bullpen help. Not to mention a prospect. Good move.

Looked in the FA market and signed a bench bat that can play several position to give your starters a rest occasionally, and another bullpen arm. Good move.

Then looked in FA market again and signed a defensive 2B who just happened to be a contact hitter with speed that you could put in the 2 slot in the lineup. Yet another good move.

Matsui's job will be to take 2 or 3 pitches and give Bourn a chance to run. Then he will be counted on to put the ball in play somewhere, preferrably on the ground,  and advance Bourn for the 3-4-5 hitters. Are honestly saying that instead of asking your speedy, fastball hitting, contact hitter do that, you would rather take your 40 homer power hitting franchise player out of the 3 hole and ask him to do this? That would border on complete insanity.

Every move made was solid, in the framework of improving speed and defense. I don't think there was much out there in terms of adding a starter or a lefty 3B (besides keeping Lamb which I was hoping for) which is what I would have thought the main weaknesses were in terms of hitting / pitching. About the 2 slot: Bourn's only going to be on about 33-38% of the time minus any homers, and not always on first.

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #268 on: December 02, 2007, 01:24:37 am »
About the 2 slot: Bourn's only going to be on about 33-38% of the time minus any homers, and not always on first.
And the times that Bourne didn't get on.. that's when you'd want Berkman batting #2, essentially leading off with no one on base to bring in?
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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #269 on: December 02, 2007, 01:39:33 am »
And the times that Bourne didn't get on.. that's when you'd want Berkman batting #2, essentially leading off with no one on base to bring in?
Berkman would be great leading off...if they had 6 or 7 Berkman clones to hit behind him. But, they don't, so yeah, you kind of want your most productive hitter batting 3rd or 4th.
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Burzmali

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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #270 on: December 02, 2007, 02:30:35 am »
And the times that Bourne didn't get on.. that's when you'd want Berkman batting #2, essentially leading off with no one on base to bring in?

Well I was saying that the approach stuff about bunting and advancing a runner wouldn't apply most of the time.


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Re: Matsui reported to be Astro
« Reply #271 on: December 02, 2007, 05:35:48 am »
Mr. Happy's succinct post is no different than Arky's verbose posts. The entire purpose of both is to criticise a move because SmithWade did not follow "sound statistical analysis."

Tell me, folks, what should the Astros have done YESTERDAY instead of signing Matsui, if they did?

Jim, I'm not a stat man. I'm a performance man. I don't like paying money for iffy performance. Pure and simple.
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