A case for Mark Loretta to be a high priority?

[Noe]

I dunno about high priority, but with the new acquisition of Michael Bourn and the leadoff spot secure for now, Houston can afford to be wise on how they make their next lineup improvement move.  Do they need to pay for Luis Castillo now?  Iguchi seems to be a better fit now that Bourn will be the leadoff.  Matsui?  No thanks.  But what about Mark Loretta/Chris Burke over Iguchi and some other backup?

The Astros could, if they wanted to pool their money and use it somewhere else (*cough* PITCHING, *cough*).  The savings can come by an abandonment of the Luis Castillo or Iguchi pursuit and go with Chris Burke as the incumbent second baseman who hits 2nd in the lineup.  Of course, if he doesn't produce, then Mark Loretta should be the insurance for this team.  Viable?

I dunno.

One thing I'm on the fence about is Hunter Pence hitting #5.  He did well, but his free swinging ways could lead to leaving too many men stranded.  But the pendulum could swing the other way and his free swinging ways could also lead to many runs driven in.  I just dunno about Pence at #5.  Pence at #2?  While he isn't prototypical, he does produce well in that spot and he can run.  And it never hurts to hit in front of Lance Berkman.  Never!

But what if:

1. Bourn
2. Burke
3. Pence
4. Berkman
5. Lee

The key to me in that situation would be for Burke to use his speed and ability to spray the ball all around the ballpark to get on base and score some runs.  He has to cut down on the swings with the uppercut if he bats at the top of the order.  Can he do it?  There was a stretch in 2005 when Burke did just that and it was exciting to watch.  The function of hitting #2 is important, not the cumulative stats like OPS.  If Burke has it in mind to be a slugger in 2008, then all bets are off.  Of course, the occasional pop from his bat at the #2 helps tremendously, but it should not be primary to what he should do in that role.  And Loretta to take some ABs at that spot does not hurt a thing either.

So if they were to go with Burke, I don't think all is lost, far from it.  Lee or Pence at #5 would be key and I would guess they use Pence at #5 to start off with.  Either way, it's going to be fun to watch what they come up with.  So far, they've managed to make some moves that speak directly to their plan for upgrading this team in 2008.

[Burzmali]

Or Bourn / Berkman / Pence / Lee / Wig / Burke / Towl / Everett

[JimR]

Or Bourn / Berkman / Pence / Lee / Wig / Burke / Towl / Everett

Berkman at #2.

mind-boggling.

[Froback]

I could live with your top 5 Noe.  Not that I like Burke, I do like the idea of 3/4/5 being Pence/Berkman/Lee.

And I think Burke is their saftey net at 2B.  I am not sure what the club thinks of him anymore, but I am sure he is AN option.

[Noe]

Berkman at #2.

mind-boggling.

Because all you have to look at is Berkman's OBP and *bingo*!  Again, myopic thinking. (or the best way to build a fantasy baseball team)

[Froback]

Or Bourn / Berkman / Pence / Lee / Wig / Burke / Towl / Everett

This from the guy who thinks Scott would be better for the team than Bourn, right?

Just checking...

[JimR]

I do like the idea of 3/4/5 being Pence/Berkman/Lee.

i do too.

[MusicMan]

Berkman is not a #2 hitter in any rational world.

I'd still rather get Castillo or Iguchi for the 2 spot and take my chances with Berkman/Lee/Pence as some 3-5 combo.

Loretta's hot start masked the fact that he tailed off tremendously in the second half.

[Froback]

i do too.

Ahh shit!  Jim, Noe and I all agree on something... you KNOW the Astros won't!

[Gizzmonic]

The Astros could, if they wanted to pool their money and use it somewhere else (*cough* PITCHING, *cough*).  The savings can come by an abandonment of the Luis Castillo or Iguchi pursuit and go with Chris Burke as the incumbent second baseman who hits 2nd in the lineup.  Of course, if he doesn't produce, then Mark Loretta should be the insurance for this team.  Viable?

You hit the nail on the head, Noe.  Pitching will make or break this team.  And there's not much out on the free agent market, so mediocre pitchers are going to get insane contracts.  Don't know what Wade is supposed to do in the face of this...

[Noe]

I could live with your top 5 Noe.  Not that I like Burke, I do like the idea of 3/4/5 being Pence/Berkman/Lee.

And I think Burke is their saftey net at 2B.  I am not sure what the club thinks of him anymore, but I am sure he is AN option.

I agree.  I think they're not afraid to do this now that they have a legit leadoff guy.  It will be up to Burke to prove he can function as a #2 in prototypical form.  I've seen Burke at his worse as a top of the lineup hitter at Round Rock (twice, once as a AAer and last year as a AAAer).  It's not pretty when he swings as if he's a slugger.

When he's going back up the middle and spraying the line drives around, he can be exciting and fun to watch play.  It's all up to what the Astros think Burke can do at this point.  Any hestitation that Burke will not function as a top of the lineup hitter but try again to be a slugger and I'm sure all bets are off.  They'll go hard after a second baseman that can bat second in this lineup or even middle of the lineup.

I'm sure Jeff Kent would never return here, but he's about the only guy I would think (a little younger version too) fits the bill of a second baseman who could hit #5 and move Pence back up to the #2 spot.

[toddthebod]

Ahh shit!  Jim, Noe and I all agree on something... you KNOW the Astros won't!

Can I join in on this love-fest.  I like the 3-4-5 combination as well.  I just don't like any plan that has Burke starting at second and batting second in the lineup.  And I am a little down on Loretta as well.  Plus he's getting a little long in the tooth.  (I like the idea of the Astros getting younger).

I wonder if the Astros might be able to make a deal with the Indians that could bring Josh Barfield and Cliff Lee back.  Barfield had a terrible year last season, but he looked good as a rookie in San Diego.  I think that the two could probably be had pretty cheap.  And they might be interested in Scott.  (Obviously Scott wouldn't bring back both, but he could be part of a package.)

[Noe]

Berkman is not a #2 hitter in any rational world.

Have you made a trek down to the Fantasy Baseball section of the OWA.  It's been done I'm sure.

[Noe]

Ahh shit!  Jim, Noe and I all agree on something... you KNOW the Astros won't!

Pretty scary, huh?  I think you're now a member of the circle jerk... whatever that means of course.

[Ty in Tampa]

Pretty scary, huh?  I think you're now a member of the circle jerk... whatever that means of course.

It just means you make a circle around the jerk...and tell him to 'fuck off'.

[Noe]

It just means you make a circle around the jerk...and tell him to 'fuck off'.

Or to at least kindly tell him to go play with fantasy people who will appreciate his Berkman at the #2 spot in the lineup.

[Froback]

It just means you make a circle around the jerk...and tell him to 'fuck off'.

I could live with that.

[Froback]

Or to at least kindly tell him to go play with fantasy people who will appreciate his Berkman at the #2 spot in the lineup.

I think that is kind of demeaning to Fantasy Players who are smart enough to know the difference between fantasy and reality.

[mihoba]

The only drawback to batting Loretta #2 is his base clogging speed. Ideally, I wouldn't want someone that slow on base in front of the sluggers.

And is this the same Luis Castillo who had to take regular days off in 2007 because of 'tired' legs? I'd rather... *gulp* ... see Burke out there.

[Froback]

The only drawback to batting Loretta #2 is his base clogging speed. Ideally, I wouldn't want someone that slow on base in front of the sluggers.

And is this the same Luis Castillo who had to take regular days off in 2007 because of 'tired' legs? I'd rather... *gulp* ... see Burke out there.

Hence why I would prefer Iguchi over the other two.  But he might be the most pricey to get.

[Bench]

The only drawback to batting Loretta #2 is his base clogging speed. Ideally, I wouldn't want someone that slow on base in front of the sluggers.

And is this the same Luis Castillo who had to take regular days off in 2007 because of 'tired' legs? I'd rather... *gulp* ... see Burke out there.

Castillo has had some pretty bad knee issues over the last few years, IIRC. Whatever team signs him better have a decent 40 game backup there to pick up the slack. I guess Burke could be that guy, but I hope they go in an entirely different direction than Castillo/Burke.

[Noe]

Hence why I would prefer Iguchi over the other two.  But he might be the most pricey to get.

I would rate Iguchi as a better fit on the Astros than Castillo right now.  And yes, price might make that a "let's think really hard about this" endeavor.  Hence why the very real possibility that Burke will be back as the starter at second and batting second is in evidence.  That then begs the question: Should they go after Mark Loretta?

[BUWebguy]

How much difference on defense would Iguchi or Castillo make vs. Burke? What about compared to Loretta?

[ckutac]

Anyone think that hitting #2, behind a guy with the speed of Bourn and in front of Pence, Berkman and Lee (in any order) might really help Chris Burke out.  When Bourn is on base, who ever is hitting #2 can pretty much rest assured they will see a heavy dose of fastballs.

[mihoba]

That then begs the question: Should they go after Mark Loretta?

With the new emphasis on speed? No.

[Froback]

That then begs the question: Should they go after Mark Loretta?

Depends.  I think the question should be "How hard they go after Mark Loretta?"
I think to common thought around here now is that with Bruntlett moving on, Ransom will slide into that role as super-sub.  Would Ransom be a candidate to back-up Burke?  Are there any other 2B prospects would could step up?  I am an Ash fan, but I seem to be in the minority that think he might be able to play everyday in the majors.

While I don't think this is as pressing a need as Starter and bullpen help, I would like be believe these discussion are going on in the Astros brass at this time too.

I think we are running into the same issues they are, and finding it just as muddy.

[Noe]

How much difference on defense would Iguchi or Castillo make vs. Burke? What about compared to Loretta?

Defensively - Castillo is the best of all options if he's injury free.  Iguchi has his moments, but I would rate him as slightly above average, some limits to his range but certainly a huge improvement over Biggio at second (no offense to the HOF to be).  Burke has great range, some problems with footwork that crop up on occasion.  Loretta is the slowest of them all and right now, he's a bat off the bench and a sometime starter and no one should think of him as anything other than that.

On offense:

Castillo is a top of the lineup slap hitter with great speed.  Take away his speed and he's a mediocre offensive player.

Iguchi is an excellent bat control guy with pop in his bat.  During the 2005 WhiteSox campaign to the World Series championship, many believed this guy was the key to making their particular lineup work.  It took some of the pressure off Podsednick to try and be anything other than a "get on base" type of leadoff because Iguchi was excellent at handling the bat in the two spot.  It made their sluggers (Thome, Konerko, Dye) perform much better as well.

Burke - I've already mentioned my concerns.

Loretta - has great bat control, will always give you a great AB.  If Bourn were to get on base at a high clip (.360-.380ish), Loretta (or Iguchi) become dangerous hitters.  These are not rally killing free swingers... these guys are bat control, hit behind the runner to right field excellent two spot guys.

[Noe]

Anyone think that hitting #2, behind a guy with the speed of Bourn and in front of Pence, Berkman and Lee (in any order) might really help Chris Burke out.  When Bourn is on base, who ever is hitting #2 can pretty much rest assured they will see a heavy dose of fastballs.

Eggszactly!  So the onus is for Burke to know what to do with those fastballs.  They might be thinking he can do it and will give him his chance.

[JimR]

Eggszactly!  So the onus is for Burke to know what to do with those fastballs.  They might be thinking he can do it and will give him his chance.

i have it on reasonably good authority that Burke is not the automatic answer at 2B.

[Noe]

i have it on reasonably good authority that Burke is not the automatic answer at 2B.

I'm falling into the camp of bring in Iguchi, but if Burke were to be the player I saw a glimpse of in 2005 (ever so briefly), I think he'll be fine.  I have a gnawing feeling that Burke see's himself as a lot more than the prototypical #2 hitter and thus why he gets himself into all sorts of trouble with the bat.

[Froback]

i have it on reasonably good authority that Burke is not the automatic answer at 2B.

As in not the automatic answer of internal options, or including external options too?

Cause I could easily believe the external version.  If internal only version, that to me would be pretty interesting.

And yes, I believe your comment, just trying to clarify it.

[Noe]

As in not the automatic answer of internal options, or including external options too?

Cause I could easily believe the external version.  If internal only version, that to me would be pretty interesting.

And yes, I believe your comment, just trying to clarify it.

Knowing the source that Jim knows, I would say it's pretty much internal.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

You know,  this shouldn't make be feel better about the offseason plans, but it does.  I understand Burke could still end up starting at 2B.  It's the knowledge that those who matter recognize he's not the ideal solution.

As for the comment about Barfield, I don't see him as much of a primary option as a secondary option.  In other words, if he came cheap, sure.  Otherwise, I wouldn't expect the Astros to target him as their starting 2B. 

[Froback]

Knowing the source that Jim knows, I would say it's pretty much internal.

If so, I find that very telling (as to how far Burke has fallen) and interesting.

[DVauthrin]

I don't see burke as the answer at 2b, and considering all the contact between wade and the agents of castillo, matsui, iguchi so far, neither does Ed Wade.   I would be fine with any of those 2b or loretta manning the position next year and batting 2nd to be honest.   though I like castillo/iguchi the most, then loretta, then matsui.

I do agree the trade opens the door for loretta to come back as the number 2 hitter/starter, but also the pitching market is not good.   The best guys on the market are livan and glavine, and they are guys who mainly eat innings with a decent era at this point in their careers.

Now, they could go with loretta at 2b and take the savings and apply it to cordero.   I wouldn't be opposed to glavine or livan on the right terms as well.

My best guess how this plays out:

Astros sign one of linebrink/cordero(if linebrink he and qualls can compete to close), one of the 4 2b I mentioned above, they trade scott for a SP/RP OD option, and try to find a veteran innings eater to help the kids in the rotation on their terms.  However I could see a scott for 2b trade if you determined you liked the free agent pitching better than the trade options.

Also lineup wise, I have it after thinking about it:

1.  bourn
2.  2b
3.  pence
4.  berkman
5.  lee
6.  wiggy
7/8-towles/everett in some order

I like pence batting 3rd rather than 5th because no team will pitch around him to get to lance/lee, so he will see pitches to hit.  If you bat him 5th, teams will work around him to face Wigginton and he may get himself out.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

That is a speedy top of the order.  I like it.

[Froback]

That is a speedy top of the order.  I like it.

Not if Loretta is the 2B.

[Noe]

I like pence batting 3rd rather than 5th because no team will pitch around him to get to lance/lee, so he will see pitches to hit.  If you bat him 5th, teams will work around him to face Wigginton.

Yup, but the flip side of that is having them pitch around Lee to get to Wiggington.  However, Lee of the three core middle of the lineup guys on the team (Pence/Berkman/Lee) is the more refined hitter.  His two strike approach is outstanding, while Pence may be prone to swing at some pitches simply because of the frustration of being pitched around.

The other thing is basepath speed.  Do you break up Berkman and Lee?  Do you have more opportunities for scoring rallies with ducks on the pond with the speed of Bourn/2nd baseman/Pence hitting ahead of the slow footed Berkman and Lee?  I'm glad I don't have to think about those things and Cecil Cooper and his staff do.  Right now, my inclination is that teams nibbling against Lee so they can get to Wiggington is the best option because Lee could still make them pay if Bourn/2nd Baseman/Pence/Berkman are wrecking havoc on the bases ahead of him.  Pence might be more prone to expand the strikezone and thus help the opposing pitcher make the need to pitch around him moot.

[Noe]

Not if Loretta is the 2B.

The thing about Loretta and hitting second is not about speed but about excellent bat control and a good judge of the hitting zone.  He is about the only Astro player I saw last year with the ability to hit the other way consistently.  The problem was that Biggio wasn't getting on as much as most would like and thus Loretta was having to be an OBP guy as well.  That is why they moved him to #5 or #6 a lot, to take advantage of what he does well with the bat with men on the bases.

So even though he lacks speed, Loretta does enough at the #2 to make himself a very dangerous option for the opposition.   You would hope wrapping him around Bourn and Pence wouldn't make for a guy who clogs the bases for those horses.

[JimR]

The thing about Loretta and hitting second is not about speed but about excellent bat control and a good judge of the hitting zone.  He is about the only Astro player I saw last year with the ability to hit the other way consistently.  The problem was that Biggio wasn't getting on as much as most would like and thus Loretta was having to be an OBP guy as well.  That is why they moved him to #5 or #6 a lot, to take advantage of what he does well with the bat with men on the bases.

So even though he lacks speed, Loretta does enough at the #2 to make himself a very dangerous option for the opposition.   You would hope wrapping him around Bourn and Pence wouldn't make for a guy who clogs the bases for those horses.

he is the ideal #2 HITTER. i do not worry about his speed. he can get to third on a Pence double easily.

[DVauthrin]

Yup, but the flip side of that is having them pitch around Lee to get to Wiggington.  However, Lee of the three core middle of the lineup guys on the team (Pence/Berkman/Lee) is the more refined hitter.  His two strike approach is outstanding, while Pence may be prone to swing at some pitches simply because of the frustration of being pitched around.

The other thing is basepath speed.  Do you break up Berkman and Lee?  Do you have more opportunities for scoring rallies with ducks on the pond with the speed of Bourn/2nd baseman/Pence hitting ahead of the slow footed Berkman and Lee?  I'm glad I don't have to think about those things and Cecil Cooper and his staff do.  Right now, my inclination is that teams nibbling against Lee so they can get to Wiggington is the best option because Lee could still make them pay if Bourn/2nd Baseman/Pence/Berkman are wrecking havoc on the bases ahead of him.  Pence might be more prone to expand the strikezone and thus help the opposing pitcher make the need to pitch around him moot.

My perspective is I trust Lee when being pitched around to not expand the zone way less than Pence.    If I put pence 5th, I see a ton of working him out of the zone as the non intentional but really intentional walk strategy to get to Ty.   But hunter will get himself out way too often imho whereas lee won't.

In an ideal world, pence would bat 2nd, but that is not feasible on this team.    I also love all the speed ahead of lance/lee because they can distract a pitcher, and cause a meatpitch leading to a big inning if the big boys can capitalize.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Yup, but the flip side of that is having them pitch around Lee to get to Wiggington.  However, Lee of the three core middle of the lineup guys on the team (Pence/Berkman/Lee) is the more refined hitter.  His two strike approach is outstanding, while Pence may be prone to swing at some pitches simply because of the frustration of being pitched around.

This was my main concern about having Pence in the 3 hole.  Lee definitely has the discipline not to make himself a liability at 5, but after last season (and yes, I know it was an aberration for Berkman) you could make a solid case for Lee as the best all-around hitter on the team, with speed his only liability (though a big liability at that).  Would you consider Lee at cleanup again, and Berkman at 5?

[MusicMan]

From a strategic standpoint, you want Berkman in between the two righties, so as to make the opposition burn their lefty.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

I don't know why I always think that Lee's a lefty...I blame early onset dementia.

[Froback]

he is the ideal #2 HITTER. i do not worry about his speed. he can get to third on a Pence double easily.

I totally agree, my comment was just in response to the comment about a speedy top of the order and that Loretta (if in the #2 hole) is not speedy.

And I agree with everyone else about Lee in the 5 spot, which is why I really liked the Pence/Berkman/Lee in the 3/4/5 spots.

And Pence would see alot more "hittable" pitches in front of Berkman, which would fit perfectly into his more aggressive approach.  To me, no matter who they get to man the #2 spot, as long as Bourn is leading off and Pence/Berkman/Lee are in the 3-5 spots, I really like this line-up, especially compared to last year.

[mihoba]

he is the ideal #2 HITTER. i do not worry about his speed. he can get to third on a Pence double easily.

And get stranded at third because he can't score on a medium sac fly.

I like Loretta, he is a hell of a player and I agree he is an ideal #2 hitter, but the Astros have went on record saying speed will be improved, so I doubt they will have any interest in Loretta, especially at a 'speed' position like 2B.

[MusicMan]

I wouldn't go so far as to say ANY interest.

Remember - he basically fell into their laps last year; could happen again.

[DVauthrin]

And get stranded at third because he can't score on a medium sac fly.

I like Loretta, he is a hell of a player and I agree he is an ideal #2 hitter, but the Astros have went on record saying speed will be improved, so I doubt they will have any interest in Loretta, especially at a 'speed' position like 2B.

I think they want castillo first even now, then iguchi, then loretta over matsui.

[JackAstro]

I think they want castillo first even now, then iguchi, then loretta over matsui.

Shit, why doesn't somebody just ask Wade? He seems chatty. Even better, ask Footer - it'll be the most reasonable question she gets this week, and she'll go ask Wade for us.

On another note, I mentioned  Berkman / Lee / Pence as an order in the other thread, but I'm fully on board with Pence / Berkman / Lee. Plays to everyone's strengths, keeps the pressure off the young'un, puts the most disciplined and diverse hitter with the #6 behind him, speed at the top, etc. These are great points. I'm just so glad to have the "which of the excellent hitters should they bat fifth" discussion, considering what the alternatives were before yesterday. The defense is better, the batting order makes sense, management is following through on the philosophy they told us they would employ... life is good.

[DVauthrin]

Shit, why doesn't somebody just ask Wade? He seems chatty.

This site is way better/smarter than the chronicle, we should have someone talk to the astros about doing an ask the gm segment on here.   

[VirtualBob]

i have it on reasonably good authority that Burke is not the automatic answer at 2B.

That's the best news I've heard for quite a while.

[jaklewein]

I wonder what it might take to get Kelly Johnson from ATL.  They have a kid on the farm that's ready to play now in Prada and are in need of a CF.  I wonder if Anderson might be of interest or even Scott as there's been some talk of Franceour moving to CF (played there in the minors) for a year or two until one of thier youngster's is ready.

[Burzmali]

Berkman at #2.

mind-boggling.

Not really. Cyril Morong did a really cool analysis of how important obp/slg is at each spot in the lineup. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/2/12/133645/296 It was something like this:

1. high obp, low power
2. best, balanced hitter
3. solid obp, power not as important
4. decent obp, best power hitter
5. second best balance hitter
6. power
7. power
8. worst overall hitter, so in the NL that would be the pitcher
9. high obp hitter

Remember in 2004, they put Bagwell at three and the two best hitters at #2 and #4. (Should have flipped Beltran and Berkman though)

[Noe]

Cyril Morong?  Is that the president of the local fantasy baseball league?  (BTW - Beltran struggled during the season at the #2 spot, he didn't hit much... it was during the playoff run that he took off.  And Beltran at #2 was a speed guy, so he's comparable to having Pence at #2, not Berkman).

[MikeyBoy]

Not really. Cyril Morong did a really cool analysis of how important obp/slg is at each spot in the lineup. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/2/12/133645/296 It was something like this:

1. high obp, low power
2. best, balanced hitter
3. solid obp, power not as important
4. decent obp, best power hitter
5. second best balance hitter
6. power
7. power
8. worst overall hitter, so in the NL that would be the pitcher
9. high obp hitter

Remember in 2004, they put Bagwell at three and the two best hitters at #2 and #4. (Should have flipped Beltran and Berkman though)

Looks like the lineage is living up to the name, Cyril's ancestors would be so proud.

[Noe]

I think they want castillo first even now, then iguchi, then loretta over matsui.

I'm hearing Iguchi first, then Castillo.

[Burzmali]

Cyril Morong?  Is that the president of the local fantasy baseball league?  (BTW - Beltran struggled during the season at the #2 spot, he didn't hit much... it was during the playoff run that he took off.  And Beltran at #2 was a speed guy, so he's comparable to having Pence at #2, not Berkman).

Who cares who he is? The validity of math doesn't depend on the person doing the analysis. And Beltran hit enough to be the second most productive hitter on the team that year, in the regular season while in Houston.

[Noe]

Who cares who he is? The validity of math doesn't depend on the person doing the analysis.

Oh gee, I thought we were talking baseball, not math.  My bad.  Best regards Cyril!

And Beltran hit enough to be the second most productive hitter on the team that year, in the regular season while in Houston.

OPS, right?  Cool, good for Beltran.  Guess that's why he got over 100 million dollars the following off-season too.

[Burzmali]

Oh gee, I thought we were talking baseball, not math.  My bad.  Best regards Cyril!

OPS, right?  Cool, good for Beltran.  Guess that's why he got over 100 million dollars the following off-season too.

?? The math is the method of analysis for what actually took place on the field, it isn't just made up from nothing.

Lol... again, OPS is just a way of describing what Beltran actually did, in real life, not on a fantasy draft or whatever the fuck. He did more to produce runs in the chances he had (hit singles, doubles, triples, homers, take walks, not make outs, etc.) than anybody besides Berkman on that 2004 team.

[MusicMan]

Not really. Cyril Morong did a really cool analysis of how important obp/slg is at each spot in the lineup. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/2/12/133645/296 It was something like this:

1. high obp, low power
2. best, balanced hitter
3. solid obp, power not as important
4. decent obp, best power hitter
5. second best balance hitter
6. power
7. power
8. worst overall hitter, so in the NL that would be the pitcher
9. high obp hitter

Remember in 2004, they put Bagwell at three and the two best hitters at #2 and #4. (Should have flipped Beltran and Berkman though)

There are also studies that indicate lineup order doesn't matter much one way or another.

And none of those change the fact that the Astros identified their needs as: pitching, speed, defense.

[Burzmali]

There are also studies that indicate lineup order doesn't matter much one way or another.

And none of those change the fact that the Astros identified their needs as: pitching, speed, defense.

Links?

True enough, and fair. I hope it works out. I think Bourn will be solid if he can keep that obp in the upper .300s, hope they find a closer or that one of the young arms can step up.

[Noe]

Links?

True enough, and fair. I hope it works out. I think Bourn will be solid if he can keep that obp in the upper .300s, hope they find a closer or that one of the young arms can step up.

A closer that can hit in the .890 OPS range?  I agree!

[Noe]

?? The math is the method of analysis for what actually took place on the field, it isn't just made up from nothing.

You do know that it is possible (but not reasonable) to *watch* baseball and figure out what it is you're seeing

Lol... again, OPS is just a way of describing what Beltran actually did, in real life, not on a fantasy draft or whatever the fuck. He did more to produce runs in the chances he had (hit singles, doubles, triples, homers, take walks, not make outs, etc.) than anybody besides Berkman on that 2004 team.

True.  And I loved every minute of it.  But he wasn't the best hitter down the stretch... Berkman was and Mike Lamb, Jeff Bagwell did a bit more in my view to help the team win with their hitting in the late months than Beltran.  But boy was I very glad Beltran was on the team.

Man, what a good top of the lineup hitter will do for a team, eh?

[Burzmali]

You do know that it is possible (but not reasonable) to *watch* baseball and figure out what it is you're seeing

True.  And I loved every minute of it.  But he wasn't the best hitter down the stretch... Berkman was and Mike Lamb, Jeff Bagwell did a bit more in my view to help the team win with their hitting in the late months than Beltran.  But boy was I very glad Beltran was on the team.

Man, what a good top of the lineup hitter will do for a team, eh?

No doubt, but when making personnel decisions I guess you want to be as precise as possible in the differences between players. That's where I think stats come in. Yeah Berkman is more productive than Lee, but by exactly how much. Hard to tell the difference of 10 or 20 or whatever runs per season created with just the naked eye.


Yeah, that lineup was ridiculous. I loved the switch / right / switch / right staggering of Beltran, Bagwell, Berkman, Kent. Plain nasty.

[Noe]

No doubt, but when making personnel decisions I guess you want to be as precise as possible in the differences between players. That's where I think stats come in. Yeah Berkman is more productive than Lee, but by exactly how much. Hard to tell the difference of 10 or 20 or whatever runs per season created with just the naked eye.


Yeah, that lineup was ridiculous. I loved the switch / right / switch / right staggering of Beltran, Bagwell, Berkman, Kent. Plain nasty.

Right, they didn't need a slugging middle of the lineup hitter at the trading deadline.  They needed a better option for CF than Biggio, who was terrible.  And it was for his defense that the Astros acquired Beltran.  The offense became a need when Bagwell was hurting a bit and slumping.  But that team did become a very nasty one with Beltran/Bagwell/Berkman/Kent and Lamb.

[Burzmali]

Right, they didn't need a slugging middle of the lineup hitter at the trading deadline.  They needed a better option for CF than Biggio, who was terrible.  And it was for his defense that the Astros acquired Beltran.  The offense became a need when Bagwell was hurting a bit and slumping.  But that team did become a very nasty one with Beltran/Bagwell/Berkman/Kent and Lamb.

Why didn't Lamb play third in the playoffs? They didn't want to give up the defense i guess??

[Noe]

Why didn't Lamb play third in the playoffs? They didn't want to give up the defense i guess??

I don't remember, but I thought Lamb was the one who was getting key hits after key hits down the stretch and as I remember, he hit some key homeruns against St. Louis in the NLCS.  But then again, working from faulty memory here.

[Burzmali]

I don't remember, but I thought Lamb was the one who was getting key hits after key hits down the stretch and as I remember, he hit some key homeruns against St. Louis in the NLCS.  But then again, working from faulty memory here.

For sure in 05.. memory is fuzzy about lamb in 04.

[DVauthrin]

I'm hearing Iguchi first, then Castillo.

I was just guessing based on all the reports i've read, you are the one with inside sources, so i'll happily go with that.  i'm guessing the bourn move might have changed their preference as well.

[Noe]

I was just guessing based on all the reports i've read, you are the one with inside sources, so i'll happily go with that.  i'm guessing the bourn move might have changed their preference as well.

Well, what I was told is that Wade is being "advised" that Iguchi is the better get.  Not sure how much stock Wade is putting into that.  BTW - Wade is working on another trade that is close but no word what it involves.

I'm being nosy because I'm hoping for pitching, but nothing yet.  May not amount to anything after all is said and done.  But it is a trade he's working hard on, not a free agent signing.

[DVauthrin]

Well, what I was told is that Wade is being "advised" that Iguchi is the better get.  Not sure how much stock Wade is putting into that.  BTW - Wade is working on another trade that is close but no word what it involves.

I'm being nosy because I'm hoping for pitching, but nothing yet.  May not amount to anything after all is said and done.

my own dream world best case trade would be scott either as a part of a willis deal, or scott back to cleveland for jake westbrook or cliff lee.   I'm not sure how i'd feel about scott for barfield, but that would be secondary to targeting pitching.

[Matt]

I was hoping they would shoot for Iguchi over Castillo.

[Noe]

my own dream world best case trade would be scott either as a part of a willis deal, or scott back to cleveland for jake westbrook or cliff lee.   I'm not sure how i'd feel about scott for barfield, but that would be secondary to targeting pitching.

All I'm told is that Wade is really working to execute the plan laid out by Tal Smith, Cecil Cooper and himself.  Most of it involves baseball, a little of it good PR and fan excitement.  But mostly baseball.  So he's working on his second deal now.  I asked if it was pitching and I've gotten silence.  So I'm not asking anything else for now.

[DVauthrin]

All I'm told is that Wade is really working to execute the plan laid out by Tal Smith, Cecil Cooper and himself.  Most of it involves baseball, a little of it good PR and fan excitement.  But mostly baseball.  So he's working on his second deal now.  I asked if it was pitching and I've gotten silence.  So I'm not asking anything else for now.

ah the dreaded silent treatment, gets em every time 

I was just thinking of deals I could come up with scott to get a sorely needed SP.   My feeling is this team has too many holes to leave him on the bench as a 4th OF/Lefty stick unless they don't get the right offer for him.

[Bench]

No doubt, but when making personnel decisions I guess you want to be as precise as possible in the differences between players. That's where I think stats come in. Yeah Berkman is more productive than Lee, but by exactly how much. Hard to tell the difference of 10 or 20 or whatever runs per season created with just the naked eye.


Yeah, that lineup was ridiculous. I loved the switch / right / switch / right staggering of Beltran, Bagwell, Berkman, Kent. Plain nasty.

I'd love to buy you a beer sometime if only to watch you compute the angle by which it should be drunk.

[TheWizard]

Maybe we can convince a newly frosted-tip Clemens to come out of retirement to pitch for us next year, and promptly trade him for Johan.  Just a thought.

[VirtualBob]

No doubt, but when making personnel decisions I guess you want to be as precise as possible in the differences between players. That's where I think stats come in. Yeah Berkman is more productive than Lee, but by exactly how much. Hard to tell the difference of 10 or 20 or whatever runs per season created with just the naked eye.


Yeah, that lineup was ridiculous. I loved the switch / right / switch / right staggering of Beltran, Bagwell, Berkman, Kent. Plain nasty.

So ... Precision is everything?  Sounds like .stupid [or for the ironicly challenged, stupid to 6 decimal places.]

[Ty in Tampa]

No doubt, but when making personnel decisions I guess you want to be as precise as possible in the differences between players. That's where I think stats come in. Yeah Berkman is more productive than Lee, but by exactly how much. Hard to tell the difference of 10 or 20 or whatever runs per season created with just the naked eye.

Barzmali.

[JimR]

Not really. Cyril Morong did a really cool analysis of how important obp/slg is at each spot in the lineup. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/2/12/133645/296 It was something like this:

1. high obp, low power
2. best, balanced hitter
3. solid obp, power not as important
4. decent obp, best power hitter
5. second best balance hitter
6. power
7. power
8. worst overall hitter, so in the NL that would be the pitcher
9. high obp hitter

Remember in 2004, they put Bagwell at three and the two best hitters at #2 and #4. (Should have flipped Beltran and Berkman though)

total bullshit.

[Burzmali]

total bullshit.

Lol. What about it exactly is bullshit?

The guy took real team runs scored and real team lineups from MLB 01-03, he's not pulling it out of his ass from a fantasy league.

[JimR]

Lol. What about it exactly is bullshit?

The guy took real team runs scored and real team lineups from MLB 01-03, he's not pulling it out of his ass from a fantasy league.

get you a team, and build your lineup like this. let me know when your team is playing so i can watch.

[subnuclear]

Lol. What about it exactly is bullshit?

The guy took real team runs scored and real team lineups from MLB 01-03, he's not pulling it out of his ass from a fantasy league.

What this person presented was the average historical offensive value of each slot in the batting order.  This is different from the optimizing the batting order of a particular team which is the relevant matter.   The analysis averages over a large numbers of teams, whose players are really quite different and also ignores how different players work together to score runs. 

[austro]

The analysis averages over a large numbers of teams, whose players are really quite different and also ignores how different players work together to score runs. 

Exactly, and this is why I don't think that replacing Scott with Bourn is necessarily an offensive downgrade. They're different players that do different things, and one of the problems that the Astros had  last year was getting top-of-the-order people on base for Berkman and Lee. If Bourn can get on base at a .380 clip or so and winds up scoring 100+ runs because of it, it seems likely that this team will score more runs than last year's even without Scott's power.

And when you consider the net improvement in defense, this seems like a no-brainer.

[Ty in Tampa]

Lol. What about it exactly is bullshit?

The guy took real team runs scored and real team lineups from MLB 01-03, he's not pulling it out of his ass from a fantasy league.

And of course, that's why every team that wants to maximize their run-scoring potential has adopted this approach.