Author Topic: Roy ain't Roy in '07 (Read 5042 times)

JimR · « **on:** July 14, 2007, 04:27:49 pm »

nearly every time out.

juliogotay · « **Reply #1 on:** July 14, 2007, 04:39:14 pm »

Couldn't agree more. He is becoming more average by the start.

ASTROCREEP · « **Reply #2 on:** July 14, 2007, 04:48:42 pm »

Quote from: JimR on July 14, 2007, 04:27:49 pm

nearly every time out.

Is his "be more aggressive to get farther into games" approach NOT working for him?

Or something else?

If the Astros can't beat the Cubs with Roy and Lilly on the mound...

JimR · « **Reply #3 on:** July 14, 2007, 04:54:40 pm »

Quote from: ASTROCREEP on July 14, 2007, 04:48:42 pm

Is his "be more aggressive to get farther into games" approach NOT working for him?

Or something else?

If the Astros can't beat the Cubs with Roy and Lilly on the mound...

Lilly has been pitching pretty well, i think i read, but that is not the point. the point is that Roy has been average.

gwat · « **Reply #4 on:** July 14, 2007, 05:25:04 pm »

Quote from: JimR on July 14, 2007, 04:27:49 pm

nearly every time out.

I have wanted to say this for a couple of weeks now but, fearing an OWA tar-and-feathering, it was either my lack of courage, low blood/alcohol content, or sense of self preservation that was my cause for pause on the subject. Almost anymore, the Astros need a perfect storm for Roy to win.
Solid Defense, a modicum of offense (5 runs?), and '07 Roy to be the Roy of yore almost never happens on the same calendar day anymore.

rambo2 · « **Reply #5 on:** July 14, 2007, 05:56:10 pm »

He seemed to get upset today on the blown call by the home plate umpire and he lost his concentration after he gave up the 1st hit. You never see Roy smile. He doesn't seem to enjoy what he is doing.

ASTROCREEP · « **Reply #6 on:** July 14, 2007, 06:08:38 pm »

Quote from: JimR on July 14, 2007, 04:54:40 pm

Lilly has been pitching pretty well, i think i read, but that is not the point. the point is that Roy has been average.

Anyone have a guess WHY he has been average?

Noe · « **Reply #7 on:** July 14, 2007, 07:12:47 pm »

Quote from: gwat on July 14, 2007, 05:25:04 pm

I have wanted to say this for a couple of weeks now but, fearing an OWA tar-and-feathering...

Why? I've said this about Roy for about a month now and no one tar and feathered me at all.

rambo2 · « **Reply #8 on:** July 14, 2007, 07:13:05 pm »

Quote from: ASTROCREEP on July 14, 2007, 06:08:38 pm

Anyone have a guess WHY he has been average?

He doesn't have his heart in it.

Noe · « **Reply #9 on:** July 14, 2007, 07:15:40 pm »

Quote from: rambo2 on July 14, 2007, 07:13:05 pm

He doesn't have his heart in it.

*oh boy*

Gleek · « **Reply #10 on:** July 14, 2007, 07:16:32 pm »

Quote from: ASTROCREEP on July 14, 2007, 06:08:38 pm

Anyone have a guess WHY he has been average?

Horrible Defense?

Noe · « **Reply #11 on:** July 14, 2007, 07:20:28 pm »

Quote from: Gleek on July 14, 2007, 07:16:32 pm

Horrible Defense?

By and large, he has not had the feel for his curveball/changeup this year. He has had to rely on the fastball and slider for just about most of the year. Hitter who know you will not throw a change of speed, will kill you no matter how well you throw your fastball, even location-wise. For a starter, it is imperative that both location and change of speed be part of their weapons. Oswalt has basically gone to the hill with only one pitch, the fastball.

That will make you an average pitcher really quick. Until he finds his curveball/changeup again, he's going to be this way for a while. I know the next question will be "why doesn't he have his curveball/changeup any more?". The answer is a mystery because he just won't throw it much any more. His mechanics look sound, he doesn't look like he's laboring. He just doesn't have the feel for those pitches right now. He knows it too and most hitters do too. They're spitting on his breaking pitches and sitting on dead red.

Noe · « **Reply #12 on:** July 14, 2007, 07:29:55 pm »

Quote from: rambo2 on July 14, 2007, 05:56:10 pm

He seemed to get upset today on the blown call by the home plate umpire and he lost his concentration after he gave up the 1st hit. You never see Roy smile. He doesn't seem to enjoy what he is doing.

Oh Deere Lowered, thank you Tim McCarver. Now leave if this is all you're going to contribute, it's embarrassing to read. Especially if you start to think it's welcome here and then you start posting every hour on the hour and waste bandwidth with this pablum.

Please leave. Thank you.

stubbyc · « **Reply #13 on:** July 14, 2007, 07:54:20 pm »

Quote from: Noe in Austin on July 14, 2007, 07:20:28 pm

By and large, he has not had the feel for his curveball/changeup this year. He has had to rely on the fastball and slider for just about most of the year. Hitter who know you will not throw a change of speed, will kill you no matter how well you throw your fastball, even location-wise. For a starter, it is imperative that both location and change of speed be part of their weapons. Oswalt has basically gone to the hill with only one pitch, the fastball.

That will make you an average pitcher really quick. Until he finds his curveball/changeup again, he's going to be this way for a while. I know the next question will be "why doesn't he have his curveball/changeup any more?". The answer is a mystery because he just won't throw it much any more. His mechanics look sound, he doesn't look like he's laboring. He just doesn't have the feel for those pitches right now. He knows it too and most hitters do too. They're spitting on his breaking pitches and sitting on dead red.

Oswalt hasn't had his curveball for most of the year, but he had it today. There were plenty of weak swings on his curve today. His fastball was up and out over the plate for most of the day and it got hit. I think every hit besides Jones' today came on a fastball. Jones' hit was about a 10 hopper that only got through because Burke was at DP depth.

I have noticed that he has pretty much abandoned his changeup though. I don't believe he threw it once today.

He's already walked 46 guys this year. He walked 38 all of last year. Oswalt walked back to back hitters on one occasion last year. This year it seems to be a common occurrence.

The defense is also obviously not as good as it has been in recent years.

kevinG · « **Reply #14 on:** July 14, 2007, 07:58:16 pm »

Has he lost some velocity this year too? Perhaps I never pay enough attention to the radar guns, but I seem to remember some times where he'll top out at 93 mph in a game, rather than the 96 that we've seen previously. And if this is so, has it been a slow decline or is it just this year?

Fredia · « **Reply #15 on:** July 14, 2007, 08:06:02 pm »

i cant remember when i stopped thinking oh boy its roy. hope the astros get him a run. its a truely sad thing to see.

JimR · « **Reply #16 on:** July 14, 2007, 08:25:36 pm »

Quote from: rambo2 on July 14, 2007, 07:13:05 pm

He doesn't have his heart in it.

FOS

Noe · « **Reply #17 on:** July 14, 2007, 10:15:14 pm »

Quote from: kevinG on July 14, 2007, 07:58:16 pm

Has he lost some velocity this year too? Perhaps I never pay enough attention to the radar guns, but I seem to remember some times where he'll top out at 93 mph in a game, rather than the 96 that we've seen previously. And if this is so, has it been a slow decline or is it just this year?

He is pitching to contact more this year than any other, so it stands to reason to stay away from trying to strike out guys with high velocity and trying to get them to ground out. His location has been off and that pretty much makes a 93 mph sinker very hittable. A 93 mph sinker at the knees on the corners is unhittable or if they manage to put the bat on it, it will be a do nothing ground out.

Lack of location on the fastball (consistently), lack of control of the curveball and just no confidence on the changeup pretty much makes him an average major league pitcher. Sometimes he'll win, sometimes he won't.

I suspect he'll get it back sometime, but right now it's just frustrating to watch him be so average.

legs_of_eggs · « **Reply #18 on:** July 14, 2007, 11:26:32 pm »

Its always one inning where the floodgates open up. Way too many fastballs and way too many pitches in the zone.

Reuben · « **Reply #19 on:** July 15, 2007, 12:32:45 am »

Quote from: legs_of_eggs on July 14, 2007, 11:26:32 pm

Its always one inning where the floodgates open up. Way too many fastballs and way too many pitches in the zone.

Today it was three innings.

Reuben · « **Reply #20 on:** July 15, 2007, 12:48:51 am »

Quote from: stubbyc on July 14, 2007, 07:54:20 pm

Oswalt hasn't had his curveball for most of the year, but he had it today. There were plenty of weak swings on his curve today. His fastball was up and out over the plate for most of the day and it got hit. I think every hit besides Jones' today came on a fastball. Jones' hit was about a 10 hopper that only got through because Burke was at DP depth.

I have noticed that he has pretty much abandoned his changeup though. I don't believe he threw it once today.

He's already walked 46 guys this year. He walked 38 all of last year. Oswalt walked back to back hitters on one occasion last year. This year it seems to be a common occurrence.

The defense is also obviously not as good as it has been in recent years.

I didn't realize he'd walked so many guys already. But, the 38 last year was a freakish number; he's pitched a lot of innings this year and ranks 29th in the NL in BB per 9 innings (2.95), better than guys like Chris Young, Webb, Maine, Zambrano, etc. (stat link)So I wouldn't say the walks are a glaring problem. It's just one of the many ways that he's been rather un-Roy-like this year so far. Let's hope giving up 9 runs is a wake-up call for him.

JimR · « **Reply #21 on:** July 15, 2007, 08:08:18 am »

it has seemed to me that Roy has been rushing his delivery as he starts to the plate. that could explain loss of command and maybe the loss of bite on his breaking pitches. there is a difference between pitching quickly and rushing.

it will be interesting to see if Roy, Garner or Wallace admit/discuss problems with his mechanics or his arm.

Noe · « **Reply #22 on:** July 15, 2007, 10:42:44 am »

Quote from: JimR on July 15, 2007, 08:08:18 am

it has seemed to me that Roy has been rushing his delivery as he starts to the plate. that could explain loss of command and maybe the loss of bite on his breaking pitches. there is a difference between pitching quickly and rushing.

it will be interesting to see if Roy, Garner or Wallace admit/discuss problems with his mechanics or his arm.

I agree. In fact, there was an article on Astros.com that I remember earlier this season where Roy discussed the fact that he was leaning towards the plate and rushing his delivery. That was in response to his desire to rediscover his curveball. But it will effect his location as well. Roy said he was looking at a lot of film to find what he was doing wrong. Looks like he knows, but right now he can't maintain it consistently.

Here is hoping he does.

Reuben · « **Reply #23 on:** July 15, 2007, 12:19:52 pm »

Quote from: Noe in Austin on July 15, 2007, 10:42:44 am

Here is hoping he does.

If not, hey, there's always Lasti... oh, never mind.

94CougarGrad · « **Reply #24 on:** July 15, 2007, 01:16:21 pm »

I gotta head over to the game thread and see what the hell happened with Roy yesterday. I had too much stuff going on to sit and watch the game. Turned on the tv and saw it was 1-0 in the first... then came back to the game in the 6th and was thoroughly shocked to find it 9-1. I figured the bullpen had imploded. Hope Roy gets back to himself.