Author Topic: April Review  (Read 3183 times)

Jacksonian

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April Review
« on: May 01, 2007, 03:22:52 pm »
I thought we could take a look how some of the prospects are doing on the farm clubs.  I’ll run through each of the 4 currently active teams and have a look at some of the prospects I think are worth mentioning.  Feel free to comment or question about others as well.

At Round Rock and Corpus Christi we see the results of bad drafts prior to 2004, trades, and big league promotions.  With the move of Matt Albers and Hunter Pence to the show Round Rock was left with fringe position prospects the youngest of which is Josh Anderson.  He hit fine in April but still can’t or won’t take a walk.  Brooks Conrad has yet to really get going, and now that Mike Rodriguez has returned to full duty since recovering from injury he’s hit the ball a bit though with his characteristic lack of power.  On the Express pitching staff Fernando Nieve, now out due to apparent injury, has spent most of the season wallowing in self-pity that he didn’t make the big club out of spring training.  As such he’s been mediocre at best on the hill and now may be injured.  Also showing poorly on the hill is Chad Reineke.  After a good first outing during which he threw mostly fastballs Chad has been roughed up and looking nothing like a top 10 prospect.  On the positive side are Juan Gutierrez and Paul Estrada both of whom have done a good job of keeping runs off the board.  I’m going to go out on a wildass limb here and say that Reineke will be in the bullpen before the All-Star break and that Nieve will be trade bait before the trading deadline in July.

The Corpus Christi Hooks suffer from the same lack of position prospects as Round Rock.  Beau Torbert didn’t get started until well into April as he started the season on the disabled list.  Perhaps the most surprising hitter in April was Lou Santangelo.  He’s hit for a reasonable average and a stunningly acceptable strike out rate.  He hasn’t yet hit for power and may be sacrificing power for average/contact right now.  He’s also nailed 40% of base runners so far.  Jonny Ash is currently destroying Texas League pitching.  On the mound Troy Patton leads the Hooks staff and has been good though a bit inconsistent.  Jimmy Barthmaier started the season in good shaped, but after getting shelled in his third start was put on the disabled list.  Speaking of the disabled list, Felipe Paulino has finally gotten off it and managed to put in about an inning’s worth of work out of the pen.  Tip Fairchild was the other starting prospect assigned to Corpus, and he too is on the disabled list after putting in poor work in two starts.  Both Corpus and Round Rock have been relying on their more experience veterans to carry them through the season and will do so for the duration.  Wildass speculation: Troy Patton will get at least one start at Round Rock this season.

Salem sports four position prospects worth note.  Josh Flores started the season on fire and has lately tailed off.  He’s still got the blazing speed and has been stealing bases without much trouble.  He’s not working the free pass as often as a leadoff hitter should though.  Tommy Manzella is doing about what was expected of him.  He’s been solid at short committing just one (fielding) error.  At the plate Manzella’s been completely ordinary hitting with little power and a mediocre average.  On the plus side, he’s been striking out less than he did last year.  Eli Iorg has been on fire of late.  Starting out the season slowly he’s come on lately getting on base and providing power while keeping the strike outs to a minimum.  J. R. Towles however hasn’t been able to get going at the plate.  He’s not striking out so he’s making plenty of contact.  His history says many of those outs will become hits through the season.  Of note to me is that he’s caught 17 of the team’s 22 games.  Good health is important to all players and critical to catchers.  So far, so good.  He’s thrown out 39% of would be base stealers.  The Avalanche were assigned five hot prospect starters and one prospect closer.  Sammy Gervacio has been outstanding closing games for the Avs.  After blowing up in his first appearance he’s given up zero runs and one walk with an excellent whiff rate over his last seven appearances.  Brad James has been nothing short of spectacular to start the season.  With a sub-one ERA for April he’s easily been the most effective starter in the Astros farm system.  Likewise Raymar Diaz has been very good minus one shaky start out of five.  Big-armed Sergio Perez has had an up and down start to the season as might be expected of someone with almost no professional experience.  Still he’s struck out plenty of batters and shown flashes of just why the Astros were so high on after last year’s draft.   Also inconsistent to start the season Brian Bogusevic has had trouble with walks and getting through five innings.  He’s striking out plenty of batters but giving up far too many hits.  Chris Salamida has had trouble in each of his starts.  Whether he’s giving up too many hits or too many walks he too has had trouble getting through five innings.  The Salem edition of wildass speculation says Eli Iorg, assuming he continues to hit, will get called up to Corpus in late June.  Also, at least one of James, Diaz, Perez, and Bogusevic will get the call to Corpus some time after June 15.

Finally, the Lexington Legends have the most position prospects worth note as would be expected.  Nick Moresi has continued the batting malaise he showed last season.  With more strike outs than hits and sitting below the Mendoza line most of the season Moresi needs to have better success at the plate or he’ll disappear from the Astros radar.  The same could be said of Ralphie Henriquez.  He hasn’t fared any better at the plate.  However, as he’s a catcher and younger than Moresi and so far gunned down 42% of would-be base stealers he will likely get more time to develop than center fielder Moresi.  Speaking of young catchers, Max Sapp has thrown out 36% of base stealers.  But, illustrating his inexperience, Sapp’s allowed 3 passed balls already.  At the plate he’s very little with no power.  But, he does lead the team in walks.  Koby Clemens gets a mention here because he’s the Astros #2 third base prospect….out of two.  He’s been mediocre at the plate and a mess in the field with 8 errors in April.  James Van Ostrand has been much more successful at the plate.  He’s been red hot in the past 10 games getting on base at a ridiculous clip and demonstrating good power.  Because Jordan Parraz is firmed entrenched in right field, Van Ostrand has been part of a left field, first base, and DH rotation.  But, he’s been perfect in the field.  Speaking of Jordan Parraz, he’s played nearly 21 of the Legends’ 24 games in right field.  He’s been solid, as always, in the field.  He started off slowly at the plate but has lately been hot with excellent power.  If Brad James has been the most impressive prospect on the mound then Chris Johnson has been the best position prospect so far this season.  Despite Astros brass stating Johnson is a third baseman, he’s been force to play third base, first base, and short stop in order to get Clemens regular playing time and keep Johnson’s bat in the lineup.  Perhaps due to the unusual playing situation Johnson has 6 errors, 4 of which were at third, all throwing.  At the plate though, he’s been the rock in the Legends’ lineup.  He has consistently hit for average and power, leading the team in homers, all year.  On the mound most of the Legend prospects appear to be destined for back of the rotation or middle relief major league roles.  Santo Luis is the Legends’ closer and may have a late inning role in his future.  He’s done a great job of preventing opposition comebacks.  Casey Hudspeth, Douglass Arguello, Bryan Hallberg, Polin Trinidad, and Bud Norris have been mediocre and inconsistent.  Norris has recently been put on the disabled list.  Aside from Luis, soft-tossing lefty David Qualben has been the only other standout on the mound.  Qualben has a sub-2 ERA.  Also, a note to opposing base runners:  DON’T RUN ON DAVID QUALBEN.  He’s picked off 8 base runners at first base, and would be base stealers are 0 for 5 with David on the mound.  Final wildass speculation: By mid-season Chris Johnson will be promoted to Salem to take failed prospect Billy Hart’s place at third base.
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JaneDoe

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Re: April Review
« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2007, 04:53:31 pm »
If Koby is such a bad player, why do some keep suggesting that he will be a September call-up if his father returns to the big league club?  Do you really believe that if Roger forces the issue that the Astros would do it if they are in the hunt?
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Jacksonian

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Re: April Review
« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2007, 04:59:13 pm »
If Koby is such a bad player, why do some keep suggesting that he will be a September call-up if his father returns to the big league club?

Stupidity.

Quote
Do you really believe that if Roger forces the issue that the Astros would do it if they are in the hunt?

They'd be wasting a valuable 40-man slot and would likely have to remove someone from the 40-man thereby exposing that player to waivers to do it.  Roger wouldn't force it; he knows better.  Also, it'd be unfair to Koby.
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jbm

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Re: April Review
« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2007, 05:04:56 pm »
Thanks for writeup.

Do you have any info on Fairchild's or Barthmaier's injuries? 

Duman

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Re: April Review
« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2007, 09:51:02 pm »
Thanks for the good report!
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pravata

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Re: April Review
« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2007, 05:01:26 pm »
Thanks for writeup.

Do you have any info on Fairchild's or Barthmaier's injuries? 

"Instead of rehabbing it, I'm going to have Tommy John (surgery) done on it," said Fairchild, home in Monmouth on Tuesday.

The Astros medical staff will perform surgery on Fairchild next Wednesday in Houston. They'll use a ligament in Fairchild's wrist to replace the ulna collateral ligament in his right elbow.
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Rebel Jew

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Re: April Review
« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2007, 06:16:13 pm »
"Instead of rehabbing it, I'm going to have Tommy John (surgery) done on it," said Fairchild, home in Monmouth on Tuesday.

The Astros medical staff will perform surgery on Fairchild next Wednesday in Houston. They'll use a ligament in Fairchild's wrist to replace the ulna collateral ligament in his right elbow.
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this is a bummer.  he was one of my favorite prospects, and he seemed poised to bust into the top 10 with a solid year.  oh well, here's hoping for a complication-free surgery and a setback-free recovery.

ranger0251

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Re: April Review
« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2007, 02:32:22 pm »
What happened to Qualbens velocity following him in tri city he topped out at 89 and pitched mid 80's with a two seamer that induced alot of groundouts. His profile outof the draft was low 90's on baeball america and his scouting report from the coastal plain league was 90-92 as well. His season last year at  tri city was great and his 2 spot starts have been fantastic as he is now back in the rotation 3-1 1.90 ERA 24k's 4BB. 10mph is a huge drop in velocity imagine if he had that extra zip on his fastball. Obviously if he lost velocity prior tothe draft and now is losing it again something is wrong with him or his mechanics it does not take a  brain surgeon to figure that out

Noe

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Re: April Review
« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2007, 03:28:10 pm »
What happened to Qualbens velocity following him in tri city he topped out at 89 and pitched mid 80's with a two seamer that induced alot of groundouts. His profile outof the draft was low 90's on baeball america and his scouting report from the coastal plain league was 90-92 as well. His season last year at  tri city was great and his 2 spot starts have been fantastic as he is now back in the rotation 3-1 1.90 ERA 24k's 4BB. 10mph is a huge drop in velocity imagine if he had that extra zip on his fastball. Obviously if he lost velocity prior tothe draft and now is losing it again something is wrong with him or his mechanics it does not take a  brain surgeon to figure that out

A loss of velocity is not uncommon for a development of a minor league arm.  Usually the reason behind it is a correct of mechanics and the development of other pitches will cause a dip in velocity.  If this were happening in the upper minor leagues (AA and AAA) it would be a concern.  But the lower minors is usually where you'll see this happen.  Doesn't really mean anything other than that is what "development" is all about.