Chris(tina) Kahrl's passing familiarity with logic

[MusicMan]

From BP's transactions analysis:

Pence was off to a solidly hot start in the PCL, hitting .341/.398/.588, so he fixes a problem in the lineup, right? Well... sort of. His call-up reflects that the commitment to Chris Burke was every bit as deep as the one made to Brad Lidge, without the unnecessary indignity of getting a vote of confidence before losing his job. Not that Pence isn't going to be a good thing, or that he may not be up to stay—that's all good news. The real question is whether or not he's really a centerfielder, any more than Burke is or is not, and whether or not Craig Biggio should be playing everyday. Burke really only presents a valuable alternative at second or center—push him to an outfield corner, and even if his bat does heat up, he ceases to become a likely asset relative to what other teams in the league can put in right or left.

The problem isn't that there's a choice between playing Pence if he's ready or not, it's that the Astros won't pick the best player between Biggio and Burke, because they're committed to enabling Biggio's personal Recordball quest, and hoping they can compete too. That remains a screwed-up sense of priorities, but if Pence produces, they'll have picked up some measure of offensive gain. The problem is that the gains on that side of the ledger won't add up to that much, relative to what they'd get if they weren't shackled to Biggio's place in history, and that the lack of any major gains in defense only make matters worse. If Pence isn't a good centerfielder, how does that help a staff already handicapped with having to live with Carlos Lee's stomping around in left? Will that add up to the difference between Burke and Pence at the plate, or will it be worse? With Pence, Lee, and some combination of Luke Scott and Jason Lane, will this help any of the Astros' more flyball-oriented hurlers out? As a result, I see the gains of brining up Pence as both obvious and fractional—Pence is ready to play, but the team's still out a centerfielder, and with Biggio's value on offense relying so heavily on memory of what once was, there just doesn't seem to be enough there there.

The number of things that are factually and logically wrong in these two paragraphs just boggles the mind.

[pravata]

From BP's transactions analysis:

The number of things that are factually and logically wrong in these two paragraphs just boggles the mind.

One of the things that keeps popping up is that the Astros don't have a real centerfielder.  Hunter Pence as a "natural" centerfielder is the judgement of those who previously thought that Luke Scott, and previous to that Chris Burke, Mitch Meluskey, Morgan Ensberg, Julio Lugo... were the answer to all the Astros questions.  The last reliable centerfielder that the Astros have had in the past 7 years is Carlos Beltran.  Willy Taveras was benched last season for his brand of larking about in center.  Before Taveras Hunsicker was on a continuous hunt for a centerfielder.   Yeah Chris Burke wasn't ideal, too bad Carlos Beltran didn't sign.   Oh and anyone who complains about Lee in left, doesn't watch Geoff Jenkins closely.

[Limey]

The number of things that are factually and logically wrong in these two paragraphs just boggles the mind.

A simple scan of Biggio's and Burke's averages brings down pretty much the entire argument:

Biggio:  .250 / .300 / .457
Burke:  .230 / .337 / .351

Also, Biggio has 22 ribs hitting 1st.  Burke has 3 batting mostly at 2, 6 or 7.  Also, also, the fact that he overlooked Loretta (.375 / .419 / .425) means that his head is neck deep in his tea towel holder.

[MusicMan]

those who previously thought that Luke Scott, and previous to that Chris Burke, Mitch Meluskey, Morgan Ensberg, Julio Lugo... were the answer to all the Astros questions. 

One thought that came to me while watching the crapfest this weekend:

It amazes me that 2 years ago, Morgan Ensberg finished 4th in the MVP voting.  The man isn't the 4th-mostvaluable infielder on the team at this point.

[Matt]

One thought that came to me while watching the crapfest this weekend:

It amazes me that 2 years ago, Morgan Ensberg finished 4th in the MVP voting.  The man isn't the 4th-mostvaluable infielder on the team at this point.

But damn it the man can take a walk! 

[Limey]

But damn it the man can take a walk! 

He was lucky to be born in Cali.  If he'd been Dominican, we'd never have heard of him.

[WulawHorn]

A simple scan of Biggio's and Burke's averages brings down pretty much the entire argument:

Biggio:  .250 / .300 / .457
Burke:  .230 / .337 / .351

Also, Biggio has 22 ribs hitting 1st.  Burke has 3 batting mostly at 2, 6 or 7.  Also, also, the fact that he overlooked Loretta (.375 / .419 / .425) means that his head is neck deep in his tea towel holder.

Which is the exact point I made when somebody on the Pence called up thread said that burke was a victim of 3,000.

Burke is, and has been, a victim of not being appreciably better than Craig Biggio for about 5 years now.

[Foghorn]

I'm sorry.  Perhaps I'm old fashioned.  Perhaps I blame the messanger and not the message, but anything written by a dude who had his pecker surgically removed to create a "man-pussy" somehow just doesn't register as being worth a shit to read.

Regarding the Pence/Burke/Biggio bizarre love triangle, the one constant between all 3 is that none can play defense at their 2007 assigned position. 

Biggio still has a valuable skill of hitting with some pop.  He's still an ideal #6 or #7 hitter on a decent lineup.  I'd imagine you could find a slew of GMs who'll take 250/300/457 from a 2B.

[Arky Vaughan]

A simple scan of Biggio's and Burke's averages brings down pretty much the entire argument:

Biggio:  .250 / .300 / .457
Burke:  .230 / .337 / .351

This is what baffles me. What makes anybody think Chris Burke would be a significant upgrade over Craig Biggio offensively? There is nothing in their track records to suggest the change would be more than minimual (if not in fact a downgrade).

I think a lot of the hand-wringing about playing Biggio to get 3,000 hits has a lot less to do with Biggio, Burke and the facts of the situation, and a lot more to do with zealotry in making the point that playing famous old veterans because they are famous old veterans is a bad thing, and the new statistical illuminati feel it is their sworn duty to make the rest of us understand this.

[MusicMan]

I think a lot of the hand-wringing about playing Biggio to get 3,000 hits has a lot less to do with Biggio, Burke and the facts of the situation, and a lot more to do with zealotry in making the point that playing famous old veterans because they are famous old veterans is a bad thing, and the new statistical illuminati feel it is their sworn duty to make the rest of us understand this.

The irony, of course, being that the crowd preaching the gospel of "just look at the data" is ignoring the data.

[Limey]

Biggio still has a valuable skill of hitting with some pop.  He's still an ideal #6 or #7 hitter on a decent lineup.  I'd imagine you could find a slew of GMs who'll take 250/300/457 from a 2B.

I don't disagree but, for the sake of accuracy, I feel the need to point out that there's only 4 "qualified" 2nd basemen in the NL with worse stats than Biggio, and one of those is Burke.  In reality, only the Marlins and the Rocks would swap their guy for Biggio at this point.  The argument is, essentially, who's less bad.

[ValpoCory]

I don't disagree but, for the sake of accuracy, I feel the need to point out that there's only 4 "qualified" 2nd basemen in the NL with worse stats than Biggio, and one of those is Burke.  In reality, only the Marlins and the Rocks would swap their guy for Biggio at this point.  The argument is, essentially, who's less bad.

I would understand the "bench Biggio for Loretta" argument over the "bench Biggio for Burke" argument.

[JSAstrosFan]

I'm sorry.  Perhaps I'm old fashioned.  Perhaps I blame the messanger and not the message, but anything written by a dude who had his pecker surgically removed to create a "man-pussy" somehow just doesn't register as being worth a shit to read.

No Rice-a-Roni for me either.

[Noe]

I would understand the "bench Biggio for Loretta" argument over the "bench Biggio for Burke" argument.

Biggio has not been hitting #6 on this team like Burke.  It's a moot point, but comparing a #6 hitter's stats with a leadoff guys is not fair to either one of them.  But honestly, who is a better bet to be an effective leadoff hitter?

[Limey]

I would understand the "bench Biggio for Loretta" argument over the "bench Biggio for Burke" argument.

See Reply #2 above.

[Bench]

Okay. So say you got Loretta in for Biggio and Pence in for Burke. Who's your leadoff hitter? What's your preferred lineup? (Feel free to choose between Lamb and Ensberg, as well).

[Limey]

Okay. So say you got Loretta in for Biggio and Pence in for Burke. Who's your leadoff hitter? What's your preferred lineup? (Feel free to choose between Lamb and Ensberg, as well).

Ensberg?  Radical and possibly insane, but he'd certainly make sure to get a good look at lots of pitches...

[Noe]

Ensberg?  Radical and possibly insane, but he'd certainly make sure to get a good look at lots of pitches...

OMG!

[Foghorn]

I don't disagree but, for the sake of accuracy, I feel the need to point out that there's only 4 "qualified" 2nd basemen in the NL with worse stats than Biggio, and one of those is Burke.  In reality, only the Marlins and the Rocks would swap their guy for Biggio at this point.  The argument is, essentially, who's less bad.

If we take a step back from 1 month of data and just look at 2006 totals, you'll see quite a few teams are getting about that same production from their 2B.

Atl in 2006--272/342/400
Chi in 2006--274/326/411
Cin in 2006--272/327/415
Mil in 2006--266/338/388

I didn't check but I'd be surprised if Stl, Colorado or SD posted 2B numbers much different than above.  Not sure those numbers transaltes to more production than Biggio's 250/300/457.  Less OBP but more power.  Seems like a wash to me.

Biggio still has one good offensive skill--he can hit for power for a 2B.  It is likely this ability will decline over the course of the season, as he seems to peter out during the dog days.  Until then, he's a viable 2B.  

[homer]

Ensberg?  Radical and possibly insane, but he'd certainly make sure to get a good look at lots of pitches...

He means make a lineup with Pence and Loretta, and for 3rd base choose Lamb if you like. He is not suggesting Ensberg to leadoff.

[WulawHorn]

If we take a step back from 1 month of data and just look at 2006 totals, you'll see quite a few teams are getting about that same production from their 2B.

Atl in 2006--272/342/400
Chi in 2006--274/326/411
Cin in 2006--272/327/415
Mil in 2006--266/338/388

I didn't check but I'd be surprised if Stl, Colorado or SD posted 2B numbers much different than above.  Not sure those numbers transaltes to more production than Biggio's 250/300/457.  Less OBP but more power.  Seems like a wash to me.

Biggio still has one good offensive skill--he can hit for power for a 2B.  It is likely this ability will decline over the course of the season, as he seems to peter out during the dog days.  Until then, he's a viable 2B.  

Hammer meet nail.  Excellent post foggy.

[Limey]

He is not suggesting Ensberg to leadoff.

Yes he is.  He just had his hand up indicating sarcasm.

[MusicMan]

Okay. So say you got Loretta in for Biggio and Pence in for Burke. Who's your leadoff hitter? What's your preferred lineup? (Feel free to choose between Lamb and Ensberg, as well).

Loretta
Lamb
Berkman
Lee
Scott
Pence
Everett
Ausmus

Loretta is no leadof man, but it's by necessity in this scenario.

[Limey]

If we take a step back from 1 month of data and just look at 2006 totals, you'll see quite a few teams are getting about that same production from their 2B.

Atl in 2006--272/342/400
Chi in 2006--274/326/411
Cin in 2006--272/327/415
Mil in 2006--266/338/388

I didn't check but I'd be surprised if Stl, Colorado or SD posted 2B numbers much different than above.  Not sure those numbers transaltes to more production than Biggio's 250/300/457.  Less OBP but more power.  Seems like a wash to me.

Biggio still has one good offensive skill--he can hit for power for a 2B.  It is likely this ability will decline over the course of the season, as he seems to peter out during the dog days.  Until then, he's a viable 2B. 

In 2006 Biggio hit .246 but that was then, this is now.  Now, he's in the bottom three of NL 2Bers for production.  The fact that he's one of the better Astros speaks more about the Astros than it does about Biggio.

GMs pay millions to upgrade from .250 to .275.

[Foghorn]

Loretta
Lamb
Berkman
Lee
Scott
Pence
Everett
Ausmus

Loretta is no leadof man, but it's by necessity in this scenario.

The thing I like about Garner/Purp is they focus on what they have, rather than what they don't have.  We don't have a "traditional" leadoff guy.  Big fucking deal.  Gimme guys who can get on base so when Lance/Flapjack connect, runs are scored.