Jennings and Rotation Spot

[Alkie]

I know this isn't exactly timely, since Jennings is on the DL and we had this discussion right after the trade for him, but I was just reading an article about the average ERA by rotation spot (so it got me thinking about it).

Lg      #1      #2      #3      #4      #5
MLB     3.60    4.14    4.58    5.10    6.24
NL      3.51    4.04    4.57    5.11    6.26

Spot    MLB     NL
#1/#2   3.87    3.78
#2/#3   4.36    4.31
#3/#4   4.84    4.84
#4/#5   5.67    5.68

So, I looked it up.  Jason Jennings had an ERA of 4.81 over the 4 years before the trade, and was even pretty consistent home/away (4.76 away, 4.87 in Coors).

For everyone who jumped my shit when I said he was a #3/#4 at best and who tried to convince me that Purpura was completely justified in calling Jennings a solid #2, try again.  He's not.  He had one year where he was a #1/#2.  Stop drinking the Koolaid.  Bushneck lackeys.

Have a nice Sunday.  Go Astros.  VIVA ALL CAPS!

[WulawHorn]

Alkie- does this mean that we are going to have to make up a new rotation spot for the awesomeness of your favorite guy Sampson. Since he is for his career a full run better than the average #1 starter, how do you even quantify him?

[DVauthrin]

I know this isn't exactly timely, since Jennings is on the DL and we had this discussion right after the trade for him, but I was just reading an article about the average ERA by rotation spot (so it got me thinking about it).

Lg      #1      #2      #3      #4      #5
MLB     3.60    4.14    4.58    5.10    6.24
NL      3.51    4.04    4.57    5.11    6.26

Spot    MLB     NL
#1/#2   3.87    3.78
#2/#3   4.36    4.31
#3/#4   4.84    4.84
#4/#5   5.67    5.68

So, I looked it up.  Jason Jennings had an ERA of 4.81 over the 4 years before the trade, and was even pretty consistent home/away (4.76 away, 4.87 in Coors).

For everyone who jumped my shit when I said he was a #3/#4 at best and who tried to convince me that Purpura was completely justified in calling Jennings a solid #2, try again.  He's not.  He had one year where he was a #1/#2.  Stop drinking the Koolaid.  Bushneck lackeys.

Have a nice Sunday.  Go Astros.  VIVA ALL CAPS!

He would have been a number 2 under said formula last year.   He was pitching like a number 2 in his couple of starts pre DL.   I'd say he's improved a lot more than the stats used from 3/4 years ago would indicate.

[Alkie]

In this case, I'm happy to admit that Sampson's microscopic ERA is due to small sample size.  Yes, I think he's better than a #5, but he's obviously not an actual #1 or even #2 (unless he puts together 4 full seasons of 2.60 ERA).

Jennings has a very real track record.  He is NOT a fucking #2 and saying he is, is insulting.  He's only a #2 if you don't have enough talent to push him down to his proper spot in the rotation.  You're telling me that if the Astros had re-signed Andy AND made the trade for Jennings that Jennings would be the #2 and Andy would be the #3?  You're just lying now.

[Alkie]

He would have been a number 2 under said formula last year.   He was pitching like a number 2 in his couple of starts pre DL.   I'd say he's improved a lot more than the stats used from 3/4 years ago would indicate.

That was one year.  If he keeps it up, fantastic, I'm all for it.  But look back beyond one career year (which I think is fair to do). 

[WulawHorn]

wow there tiger- I was just messing with you about Sampson. I do agree with you that I think he should have a turn in the rotation where he goes every time, unless he gets his brains beat in multiple times in a row- then you might have to re-evaluate.

What I've seen of him I really like.  I have no idea who loses their spot in the rotation when(If?) Jennings comes back. I'm tempted to say Woody, but with what he's getting paid and his service time and still having another year on the contract and being a "proven veteran" there ain't no way that is happening. 

Probably Albers is the odd man out, but he's done nothing to lose his job. I can't believe I'm saying this, but wandy rod deserves to keep taking his turn in the rotation.

I suppose these things have a way of working themselves out, so I'm not in full fledge panic mode about anything yet, but it does have me wondering.

[DVauthrin]

That was one year.  If he keeps it up, fantastic, I'm all for it.  But look back beyond one career year (which I think is fair to do). 

If he keeps it up, he's a number 2 starter, my point precisely.   I realize he could fall back into number 3 territory but I liked what I saw vs the pirates.  But as far as his past struggles, remember how bad colorado was(how young) 3/4 years ago, and that led to a lot of poor defense.

I think he can maintain a sub 4 era as an astro health permitting, which makes him a number 2 by the statistical measure you posted.

[Alkie]

Really what I don't understand about Jennings and OWA is that everyone seems to be basing their "Jennings is a #2" comments on one career season; which is unlike the general thinking on this forum.  Why is it different for Jennings? 

[JimR]

I know this isn't exactly timely, since Jennings is on the DL and we had this discussion right after the trade for him, but I was just reading an article about the average ERA by rotation spot (so it got me thinking about it).

Lg      #1      #2      #3      #4      #5
MLB     3.60    4.14    4.58    5.10    6.24
NL      3.51    4.04    4.57    5.11    6.26

Spot    MLB     NL
#1/#2   3.87    3.78
#2/#3   4.36    4.31
#3/#4   4.84    4.84
#4/#5   5.67    5.68

So, I looked it up.  Jason Jennings had an ERA of 4.81 over the 4 years before the trade, and was even pretty consistent home/away (4.76 away, 4.87 in Coors).

For everyone who jumped my shit when I said he was a #3/#4 at best and who tried to convince me that Purpura was completely justified in calling Jennings a solid #2, try again.  He's not.  He had one year where he was a #1/#2.  Stop drinking the Koolaid.  Bushneck lackeys.

Have a nice Sunday.  Go Astros.  VIVA ALL CAPS!

did not hear a peep out of you after Sampson's next to the last start. you pick your rant spots admirably.

[Alkie]

If he keeps it up, he's a number 2 starter, my point precisely.   I realize he could fall back into number 3 territory but I liked what I saw vs the pirates.  But as far as his past struggles, remember how bad colorado was(how young) 3/4 years ago, and that led to a lot of poor defense.

I think he can maintain a sub 4 era as an astro health permitting, which makes him a number 2 by the statistical measure you posted.

Oh sure.  If he puts together multiple years with #2 style numbers, then he's a #2 and I think the quote WILL BE justified.  But telling me that he IS a #2 based on one career year is fucking insulting.   Purpura said what he said because he had to; he was unable (not because it was his fault) to find a real bona fide #2. 

[JimR]

Oh sure.  If he puts together multiple years with #2 style numbers, then he's a #2 and I think the quote WILL BE justified.  But telling me that he IS a #2 based on one career year is fucking insulting.   Purpura said what he said because he had to; he was unable (not because it was his fault) to find a real bona fide #2. 

oh, please.

[Alkie]

did not hear a peep out of you after Sampson's next to the last start. you pick your rant spots admirably.

Then you have selective reading or memory.  I said plenty.  Check the GZ.  He got lit up.  Beeg tine.  What do you want, a 180-degree change of heart rant about Sampson because he finally had one bad game?  That's silly.

[Alkie]

oh, please.

You're wrong on this one, Jim. 

Lg      #2      #3      #4
MLB     4.14    4.58    5.10    
NL      4.04    4.57    5.11   

Spot    MLB     NL
#1/#2   3.87    3.78
#2/#3   4.36    4.31
#3/#4   4.84    4.84

Jason Jennings  ERA 4.81

[matadorph]

Chris Carpenter.

[JimR]

You're wrong on this one, Jim. 

Lg      #2      #3      #4
MLB     4.14    4.58    5.10    
NL      4.04    4.57    5.11   

Spot    MLB     NL
#1/#2   3.87    3.78
#2/#3   4.36    4.31
#3/#4   4.84    4.84

Jason Jennings  ERA 4.81

i do not buy that Purpura lied because he was unable to find a #2 that you would accept. perhaps he was stating his opinion, with which you disagree.

i'm also wondering when or if you are going to let this go.

[Burzmali]

He pitched in Coors.

He was ranked 11th among all ML starters last year in VORP. I know numbers are meaningless, but I still like them.

He's not only a #2 on this team, he'd be a #1 on a few teams also.

[Mr. Happy]

i do not buy that Purpura lied because he was unable to find a #2 that you would accept. perhaps he was stating his opinion, with which you disagree.

i'm also wondering when or if you are going to let this go.

The issue is moot. He's our no. 2. And we need him back soon.

[Alkie]

i'm also wondering when or if you are going to let this go.

Yeah, I'm over it.  I had just read the article and it got me off on the whole thing again.

Since it looks like he'll never pitch for us again anyway, it doesn't look like it really matters.  Not that it ever did.