Welcome to the Series Preview section of Orange Whoop Ass. For the newbie?s out there, I?m one of the 2 primary Series Previewers for OWA. I?m the one who likes to cuss and make crude comments about the Cardinals and Braves. Craig, the poster formerly known as Stain, is the funny one. We?re dividing up the Previews this season, as asking one person to do it solo is a task accomplished by only the truly drunk and impotent?gimme back my nut you bitch!!!
Anyway, we hope you enjoy the previews. Craig is interested in knowing what features/aspects of the preview you guys like so he can craft a preview that all would enjoy. Me, I don?t care what you guys like, I?m gonna give you what I wanna give you. Call me Billy Wagner if you want to. You can keep flashing the deuce all you want but I?m bringing the heat, muthafucka!!!
I thought it would be an interesting to do a Season Preview, sort of our own version of Spring Training. Also, I have a high dollar NL only fantasy league to prepare for so I have to do the research anyway. I?ll do a Preview for each NL team (starting West and working my way to the East) and Craig will do one for the AL as a whole. The final Season Preview will be Astros-related as well as containing various predictions for the upcoming season.
With that out of the way, let?s head out West to see how those losers are shaping up this year.
Los Angeles Dodgers
2004 In Review 2004 was a fantastic year for the boys in blue as they made the playoffs for the first time since 1996. And they won a playoff game for the first time since 1988 (started by Jose Lima no less). Adrian Beltre had possibly the best season ever by a 3B (depends who you ask. Boras said he did and Boras wouldn?t lie, would he?). Goggles Paisano finally allowed a blown save but still was every bit as dominate as ever. The aforementioned Jose Lima managed to avoid too many herpes related flare-ups, though I imagine his wife had to smear Zovirax on her breasts twice a week. Rookie GM Paul DePodesta (some are now calling him the real brains behind the A?s) didn?t manage to get Randy Johnson at the trade deadline, but did manage to get Brad Penny to throw 11.2 innings before blowing out his arm.
The Dodgers had a 3-game lead going into the final series of the season with the Giants. They lose the Friday game, and are down by 3 runs going to the 9th on Saturday. Jason Schmidt is scheduled to go on Sunday. In steps Dustin Hermaphrodite, and promptly the bases are juiced when Steve Finley steps to the plate, game tied. A walk-off, division clinching grand slam later and the Giants are put on life support. Backe pulls the plug the next day.
Unfortunately, in the playoffs the Dodgers put up as much of a fight as any of the early opponents for Hillary Swank in Million Dollar Baby. The Cards twice spanked them in St. Louis, Lima postponed the inevitable in Game 3, and the Cards finished the job in Game 4.
2004 Offseason in Review Instead of giving a boatload of money to the one-year wonder who plays a fine 3B and is only 26, they give a boatload of money to the one-year 500+ AB wonder who plays an indifferent OF and is 29. Then DePodesta gives Derek Lowe and his sinker a 4-year deal only to add Jeff Kent to play 2B. I like Kent but defensively just can?t cover the ground Alex Cora could. Lowe is going to give up lots of seeing-eye singles through the right side. Shawn Green is now a D-Back with the Navarro kid from the Yankees going to LA. Supposedly the money saved from not paying Green went to re-upping Odalis Perez for 3-years.
Catchers Here?s a problem for the Dodgers in 2005. LoDuca had a fantastic first half (as per usual) and the Dodgers traded him before his annual second half fade could burn them. LoDuca hit 301/351/444 in 91 games for the Dodgers. Dave Ross replaced LoDuca as the starter and sucked, ending up with a line of 170/253/291. The Dodgers added Paul Bako to the mix for 2005, he of the 203/288/283 line. Dioner Navarro, no relation to Dave, put up an unimpressive 250/316/360 line in AAA in 2004, though he just turned 21. He?s at least a year away. So unless Ross rebounds to his pre-2004 form, the Dodgers figure to be much worse offensively in 2005 at this position. Defensively, Bako may be a bit of an upgrade (LoDuca threw out just 24% of base stealers and allowed the 3rd most Passed Balls in the majors) but Ross allowed Passed Balls at an even greater rate than LoDuca, yet threw out 29% of potential base stealers.
First Base Hee Seop Choi looks to be the man, at least against right-handers. Perhaps the Dodgers will go to a strict platoon?Choi versus righties and Orlando Saenz versus lefties.
Choi (versus righties) 261/381/469
Saenz (versus lefties) 338/427/631
That makes sense, probably too much sense so don?t expect it to happen.
Second Base For Jeff Kent, the trail of bluebonnets led him to Chavez Ravine, where he?ll continue to hit well as long as he?s healthy. Offensively he?s a super upgrade over Alex Cora. Defensively he?s a downgrade. I?d be tempted to rest him when Lowe is on the mound.
Shortstop Cesar Izturis had a pretty good year in 2004?288/330/381 with 25 SBs and 9 CS. All while playing quality defense. Let?s see if he can keep it up. He?s only 26.
Third Base Man, what a year by Beltre. Great defense, 334/388/629 with 48 bombs. And to replace him, the Dodgers are turning to ex-Chicago White Sux Shortstop Jose Valentin. Yes, THAT Jose Valentin whose best OBP the last 3 years was an epic .313 in 2003. In a pretty extreme hitters park. You know the offensive upgrade Kent provides at 2B? That maybe fills half the gap between Beltre and Valentin.
Outfield The plan is for the OF to be Jason Werth (262/338/486), JD Drew (305/436/569) and Head Case Bradley (267/362/424). Of course, Werth is already injured, JD Drew is usually good for 30 days on the DL a season, and Bradley has spent about 60 days on the DL over the last 3 years (though none last year). I would put the Over/Under on the number of games these guys all being in the OF together at about 60.
Starters Derek Lowe, Odalis Perez, Jeff Weaver, Kaz Ishii and Brad Penny. Or, as I like to call them?Grounder, Lefty, Asshole, Suck and Damaged Goods. A healthy Penny is clearly the best of the bunch, but Penny is to health as Seth Green is to dramatic acting. Ishii?99 Ks, 98 BBs. Weaver is over-rated, putting up a 4.01 ERA with half the games in Dodger Stadium makes you average. Lowe and Perez are nice to have, but at $17M a year, they won?t make a profit on that investment.
Bullpen One of the best in baseball. Gagne is nasty, though he did have to have an MRI on his knee this Spring. Taking over for Mota as the primary setup man is Yhency Brazoban. Great fucking name. Will turn 25 this summer. Look for him to take the next step and really develop this year. Ex-OFer who can hit the upper 90?s. Giovanni Carrara, Wilson Alvarez, and possibly Edwin Jackson round out the rest of the main players in the bully.
Outlook A solid team that will go as far as their team doctor and bullpen will take them. If Drew can get 500 ABs and Perez/Penny each get 200 IP, they?ll be pretty competitive. They got a ton of talent in the farm system, so they?ll be a player at the trade deadline. Looks like an 83-86 win team, with an upside of 90 wins. Downside is pretty scary if Drew/Bradley/Kent all have similar seasons as 2003 when they spent a combined 79 days on the DL.
Fantasy Projections Assumes an NL-only league, 10 teams, 5x5 rules. Avg/HR/RBI/R/SB. W/K/ERA/WHIP/Saves
Ross?235/15/45/35/0. Of all the $1 catchers in the NL (Ausmus/Miller/Molina/Matheny), Ross has the most upside. Bid $2 if you really want him, but anything over that is silly.
Choi?255/17/65/50/2. Will likely lose ABs to Saenz since he can?t hit lefties worth a damn. Worth about $5, but has serious upside potential. Not a bad guy to take a flyer on.
Kent?285/22/100/85/5. Very consistent player, whose fantasy value is dependant upon the guys in front of him (Izturis/Drew) getting on base and the guys behind him (1B/Valentin) driving him in. Worth $20, but there are several good 2B options in the NL this year (Vidro, Giles, Loretta, Castillo, Reyes) who are worth about the same, but probably available for less. I?d stay away, unless you can get him for about $18 or less. Too much uncertainty with the guys hitting in front of him.
Izturis?260/3/35/65/23. Not a bad player, though his biggest fantasy asset, SB, is dependant upon him getting to first base often. His OBP in 2002 was .253 and just .282 in 2003. His .330 OBP last year looks to be a fluke. Worth about $10, but I wouldn?t bid more than $6 or $7.
Valentin?230/20/75/50/3. Worth about $7. His one thing he does well, hit for power, is mitigated by leaving New Comiskey and going to Chavez Ravine. Could kill you in AVG.
Werth?270/15/65/65/8. Playing time is the key here. The Dodgers also have Ricky Ledee and Jason Grabowski who may eat into Werth?s playing time. At 500+ ABs, he?s worth about $14. Let that be your ceiling, and try to get him for a few dollars less. Keep an eye on the injury reports. He?s playing through an elbow/ligament injury and has recently cracked his wrist.
Drew?285/25/75/90/10. At 500+ ABs, he?s worth $28 to $30. A realistic number of ABs is 350, so I?d stop bidding around $19 or $20.
Bradley?270/15/80/65/15. About a $16 player.
Ledee/Saenz may be draftable in some leagues where you can store them on your bench. If Choi still can?t make contact with the curve ball and/or Werth goes down for extended periods of time, these guys could produce a nice return.
Penny?11/110/3.65/1.30/0. A $16 pitcher whose body will only allow him to generate $11 worth of value. May want to keep the bidding to the single digits.
Perez?14/155/3.75/1.25/0. $16 sounds about right. I don?t think he?ll give you the full 200 IP you might be expecting. If you think he?ll give you 200 IP, go ahead and bid $19.
Weaver?12/135/4.10/1.33/0. I wouldn?t want the piece of shit on my team just because he?s an asshole. Emotions aside, he?s worth $10.
Lowe?12/140/4.00/1.32/0. Just a bit more than Weaver. Call it $11.
Gagne?4/110/2.25/0.95/50. Best closer in the game. $30.
Brazoban?9/80/3.15/1.25/2. Looking for a vulture to steal some wins? Look for a setup man who?ll come in the game when it?s tied in the 8th, with the hammer ready to strike in the 9th. Mota won 8 games for the Dodgers, Brazoban added 6 more. All after Mota left!!! Worth $10 or $11, but you can get him for much less. Betcha he?s yours for less than $4.
Stay away from Ishii (sucks), Jackson (injury/role). Alvarez may be worth a flyer at $1.
