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otterj

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2007 Pitching
« on: September 20, 2006, 07:25:36 am »
What's the most likely rotation for 2007? Free agents?

Oswalt
Pettitte ?
Hirsh
???
???

How 'bout the pen?
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mihoba

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2006, 08:30:40 am »
Quote:

What's the most likely rotation for 2007? Free agents?

Oswalt
Pettitte ?
Hirsh



Pettitte could sign for another year or two, I hope so.
I say give Sampson a shot, or at least a bully spot. Albers & Buchholz should have a shot to earn a spot.
A FA arm might be a short term solution, Woody Williams anyone? I've mentioned Gil Meche several times.

No more Wandy, please.

Quote:

 How 'bout the pen?



Miller is signed. Sign Wheeler, Qualls, Nieve. Maybe bring back Borkowski and Springer. Can Patton give the team a lefty specialist role in the pen, or is he strictly a starter? It would be nice to have another lefty in the pen.
McLemore? Barzilla?

Adios Lidge. A change of scenery will probably set him right.
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Duman

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2006, 09:47:21 am »
Quote:



Can Patton give the team a lefty specialist role in the pen, or is he strictly a starter? It would be nice to have another lefty in the pen.
 



Patton never got fully adjusted to AA.  I don't see him in the bigs before September.  I also think the Astros brass see him as a starter right now.

I think Juan Gutierrez could be one pitcher to watch in winter ball.  He could get a shot as a righty out of the pen.
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jbm

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2006, 10:01:09 am »
I'd definitely get another free agent starter, but I'd also give both Sampson and Nieve shots at the rotation before I used Wandy, Buchholz, or Albers.  Neither of those three rookies looks like they have good command of their fastball, especially under pressure.  They seem to just aim to the middle and throw, hoping it is a strike that doesn't get belted.  Until they ever gain real command, and I mean the ability and confidence to hit a spot with their fastball under pressure, I don't expect them to be major league starters.

Sampson on the other hand usually hits the mitt.  Catcher sets up inside, pitch is inside.  Catcher sets up outside, pitch is outside.  He's way more advanced in the art of pitching.  I would still like to see how he reacts under pressure, but so far, he looks like a real pitcher.
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austro

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2006, 11:04:17 am »
Quote:

Sampson on the other hand usually hits the mitt.  Catcher sets up inside, pitch is inside.  Catcher sets up outside, pitch is outside.  He's way more advanced in the art of pitching.  I would still like to see how he reacts under pressure, but so far, he looks like a real pitcher.


I agree.  Every time I've seen him this year he has looked extremely steady, and he rarely seems to get himself in trouble.
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Jacksonian

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2006, 11:17:46 am »
Quote:

Quote:

What's the most likely rotation for 2007? Free agents?

Oswalt
Pettitte ?
Hirsh



Pettitte could sign for another year or two, I hope so.
I say give Sampson a shot, or at least a bully spot. Albers & Buchholz should have a shot to earn a spot.
A FA arm might be a short term solution, Woody Williams anyone? I've mentioned Gil Meche several times.

No more Wandy, please.

Quote:

 How 'bout the pen?



Miller is signed. Sign Wheeler, Qualls, Nieve. Maybe bring back Borkowski and Springer. Can Patton give the team a lefty specialist role in the pen, or is he strictly a starter? It would be nice to have another lefty in the pen.
McLemore? Barzilla?

Adios Lidge. A change of scenery will probably set him right.



Depends on how many pitchers they carry, right?  Garner seems to like having 12 pitchers.  So 5 starters: Oswalt and 4 others. SOB, who would have thought a just a few years ago that we'd wonder who would be in the starting rotation for the Astros beyond just Oswalt?  And 7 relievers: Miller, Qualls, Wheeler, Nieve probably. Lidge if he's not dealt. Sampson will get a shot at a long relief role. Borkowski maybe. Springer maybe. Watch for how McLemore does in the Arizona Fall League.  Patton's not ready.  There'll probably a FA or 2 who get a shot.  Way too many questions right now.

Related question.  How many guys signed for 2007 right now are untouchable?  I count 2, Oswalt and Berkman.
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Jacksonian

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2006, 11:20:48 am »
Quote:

I'd definitely get another free agent starter, but I'd also give both Sampson and Nieve shots at the rotation before I used Wandy, Buchholz, or Albers.  Neither of those three rookies looks like they have good command of their fastball, especially under pressure.  They seem to just aim to the middle and throw, hoping it is a strike that doesn't get belted.  Until they ever gain real command, and I mean the ability and confidence to hit a spot with their fastball under pressure, I don't expect them to be major league starters.

Sampson on the other hand usually hits the mitt.  Catcher sets up inside, pitch is inside.  Catcher sets up outside, pitch is outside.  He's way more advanced in the art of pitching.  I would still like to see how he reacts under pressure, but so far, he looks like a real pitcher.



The Astros see Sampson right now as a long reliever.  He may get a shot at the rotation, but that's not likely as we're sitting here today.  Nieve will get a shot at being one of the big 3 late inning relievers next year, esp if Lidge is dealt.
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loganck

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2006, 11:33:21 am »
Quote:

Related question.  How many guys signed for 2007 right now are untouchable?  I count 2, Oswalt and Berkman.


Wheeler?
Not untouchable, I guess, but I'd put him in whatever catagory is closest to untouchable.
Or is he even signed?
edit:
guess not.  from last January:
Quote:

Astros agreed to terms with RHP Dan Wheeler on a one-year, $930,000 contract.


The Link
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CJM

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2006, 12:36:36 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Related question.  How many guys signed for 2007 right now are untouchable?  I count 2, Oswalt and Berkman.


Wheeler?
Not untouchable, I guess, but I'd put him in whatever catagory is closest to untouchable.
Or is he even signed?
edit:
guess not.  from last January:
Quote:

Astros agreed to terms with RHP Dan Wheeler on a one-year, $930,000 contract.


The Link
 



I was under the impression that Wheeler, while arbitration eligible, will still be under club control in 2007.
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loganck

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2006, 12:52:50 pm »
I was hoping so, but didn't know how to check.  Thanks.
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jbm

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2006, 12:59:01 pm »
 
Quote:

The Astros see Sampson right now as a long reliever. He may get a shot at the rotation, but that's not likely as we're sitting here today.


I assume you are right on this, as management's actions seem to support this view of Sampson.  However, it still drives me nuts to see him slotted in unimportant roles, while lesser performers continue to get starts.

As for Nieve, I think he still has potential as a starter, but that's just me.  However, if they are envisioning him as a late-inning guy, maybe they should give him a few late-inning chances this year, not only so that he can gain experience, but so that they can gather some data on his ability in those situations.
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loganck

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2006, 01:19:55 pm »
Quote:


I was under the impression that Wheeler, while arbitration eligible, will still be under club control in 2007.


Wheeler was a September callup in 1999 and made six starts (30.2 innings).  Does that count as his first year?  If so, he should have six after the current season.  If not, will he be eligible for free agency after 07?
Thanks in advance.
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toddthebod

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2006, 01:25:52 pm »
Personally, I'd like to see this starting rotation:

Oswalt
Hirsh
Albers
Nieve
Buchholtz

There's talent in that rotation.  And the Astros need to find out if these guys are the future of the organization.  If the Astros are going to spend money on free agent pitching, I'd like to see them get two very good bullpen arms to add to Wheeler, Qualls, Miller, Sampson, and Springer.  I think that it makes more sense to spend $6-7 million on the bullpen than on Andy Pettite or another stud starting pitcher.
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VirtualBob

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #13 on: September 20, 2006, 01:36:11 pm »
Quote:

Personally, I'd like to see this starting rotation:

Oswalt
Hirsh
Albers
Nieve
Buchholtz

There's talent in that rotation.  And the Astros need to find out if these guys are the future of the organization.  If the Astros are going to spend money on free agent pitching, I'd like to see them get two very good bullpen arms to add to Wheeler, Qualls, Miller, Sampson, and Springer.  I think that it makes more sense to spend $6-7 million on the bullpen than on Andy Pettite or another stud starting pitcher.



I think Nieve is slated (and suited) for short relief ... less stress on his elbow.  That leaves a hole in the rotation with Pettite (at too much money) or Wnady (with yet another 'last chance') would need to fill.  Either way, maybe Backe will be backe in '08 to provide rotational 'relief'.  For that matter, maybe Gutierez or Patton will be ready by 08.
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Froback

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #14 on: September 20, 2006, 03:35:48 pm »
All of these speculations leads me to believe that a trade will occur this offseason (or should).

I see Pettitte signing, too many reason not too.
I see Hirsh in the rotation and Nieve in the pen.
Buchholz will likely be given another shot unless dealt.

So that leaves 1 spot open for Albers, Sampson, FA, etc.

Oswalt
Pettitte
Hirsh
Buchholz
????

I have been on record as stating I want Schmidt, but I figure if Lee and Pettitte are sign (most likely candidates at the moment) then not enough extra cash will be around to win bidding war for Schmidt who wants to play in Seattle.
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HudsonHawk

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #15 on: September 20, 2006, 04:18:00 pm »
Quote:


Wheeler was a September callup in 1999 and made six starts (30.2 innings).  Does that count as his first year?  If so, he should have six after the current season.  If not, will he be eligible for free agency after 07?
Thanks in advance.




Major League service time is credited on a daily basis.  Basically a player gets one day of service time for each day of the season he is on the active roster, for a maximum of 172 days per season.  A player has to have 1,032 days of service time to become a free agent.  Wheeler started collecting days when he was called up in 1999, but only got service credit after that for days he was on a Major League active roster.  He likely had only a few days in 2000 and 2001, and he didnt' receive any service time for 2002.  I dont' know his total, but he's probably not all that close to the 6 full years required for free agency.
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loganck

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #16 on: September 20, 2006, 04:41:56 pm »
thank you much
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Greg D

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #17 on: September 21, 2006, 01:47:05 pm »
Quote:

...but he's probably not all that close to the 6 full years required for free agency.



Spot on. It's 4 years and 47 days, going by the Astros' Media Guide.
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JimR

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #18 on: September 21, 2006, 02:59:20 pm »
Nieve was sent to RR for the sole purpose of becoming a closer.
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utastro

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #19 on: September 21, 2006, 03:00:43 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

...but he's probably not all that close to the 6 full years required for free agency.



Spot on. It's 4 years and 47 days, going by the Astros' Media Guide.



MLB contracts and service time.  Not sure how up to date this is:
The Link

Edit: the disclaimer at the top says service time through the 2005 season
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BUWebguy

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #20 on: September 22, 2006, 12:17:50 pm »
Quote:

Nieve was sent to RR for the sole purpose of becoming a closer.



Assuming Lidge was no longer the closer, what would be the reasoning behind having Nieve go straight to closing, rather than using Wheeler or even Qualls and moving Nieve into a setup spot first? Is his stuff that much better? (I've hardly seen him pitch.)

Seems like it would make sense to have him apprentice there first. Not questioning the Astros, just curious if anyone's seen/read something I haven't.
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JimR

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #21 on: September 22, 2006, 12:29:04 pm »
reread what i wrote. i have no analysis for you and no  prediction of how he'll be used in 2007, just a fact.
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ValpoCory

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Re: 2007 Pitching
« Reply #22 on: September 22, 2006, 10:11:58 pm »
Quote:

What's the most likely rotation for 2007? Free agents?

Oswalt
Pettitte ?
Hirsh
???
???

How 'bout the pen?



Outside of Roy O, Hirsh is the only certainty on this and most fans' lists.

Yet after tonight, he's a 3-4 pitcher with a 5.83 ERA.

Obviously this can be shrugged off as small sample size and "look what he's done in the minors and his repertoire".  

I wonder how long you say that and put up with 5.00+ ERAs before he becomes an uncertainty.

Hopefully, it won't be an issue, and he gets better, like his 4 straight quality starts before tonight was beginning to indicate.
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