Week 03/8 - 03/14: Ask And Ye Shall Maybe Receive vol. V

[Jacksonian]

New week, new thread.  Post away folks.

[jaklewein]

Hey, I know this is just spring training, but did anyone see Houlton's numbers from yesterday?  3IP, 0ER, 0H, 1BB, 5Ks.

I don't know who he was facing yesterday, and frankly I don't care....not after watching our top three candidates for the 5th spot in our rotation get whacked around for the 2nd time in as many weeks.  I know most people have said that Houlton's nothing special, but are you sure that he isn't any better than Duck, Redding, Hernandez and Munro?  I mean heck, you look at the numbers he's posted the last couple years and wonder if he just isn't one of those classic over-acheivers.

[Jacksonian]

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Hey, I know this is just spring training, but did anyone see Houlton's numbers from yesterday?  3IP, 0ER, 0H, 1BB, 5Ks.

I don't know who he was facing yesterday, and frankly I don't care....not after watching our top three candidates for the 5th spot in our rotation get whacked around for the 2nd time in as many weeks.  I know most people have said that Houlton's nothing special, but are you sure that he isn't any better than Duck, Redding, Hernandez and Munro?  I mean heck, you look at the numbers he's posted the last couple years and wonder if he just isn't one of those classic over-acheivers.

If the Astros were inclined to go with an unproven minor leaguer as the #5 guy in the rotation, Astacio would be tops on the list even if Houlton were still an Astro.  And, you're right, it is just spring training.

[BizidyDizidy]

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And, you're right, it is just spring training.

But Redding still sucks.

[jaklewein]

 If the Astros were inclined to go with an unproven minor leaguer as the #5 guy in the rotation, Astacio would be tops on the list even if Houlton were still an Astro. And, you're right, it is just spring training.

Which brings me to my next question...please tell me that Astacio has been slated to get in an inning or two in today's game?

[stubbyc]

I of course don't get to see these guys play on a regular basis, but I still thought that the Astros 40 man roster construction could have been better. I know Burns and Houlton aren't going to be superstars, but they each have a shot at being solid guys in the middle innings....Houlton could still be an OK 5th starter.

I just don't see how you can justify putting Wandy Rodriguez or even Mark McLemore in front of these 2. I know McLemore has a good arm, but what does Rodriguez bring to the table? From what I've heard he's a soft tosser who hasn't put up impressive numbers. The only thing he's got going for him is left-handedness.

[HOB]

I just read this article at the Chronicle on  Charlton Jimerson .  It seems a little too good to be true.  Does anyone have any ST updates on Jimerson's performance?  I know Jimerson was rated highly for his overall athleticism but if he could finally cut down on those monstrous K numbers, that would be an outstanding turn of events.

[No? in Austin]

Jimerson only has 7 at bats, so it's early, but the results he and Luke Scott are showing are making the Astros stand up and notice.  Scott hits from the left side and has a more developed game with the bat than Jimerson, but Chewy (Charlton) has the most upside potential of the two.  Both add the dimension of speed to their game on the bases and on defense.  Jimerson adds a cannon arm and excellent instincts as a centerfielder and right fielder.

So far, in his 7 ABs, Jimerson has managed three hits (.429 BA), one triple, a double and a single for a robust .857 SLG percentage.  Scott has 9 ABs, has a .333 BA with an equally impressive .778 SLG percentage.  It is highly unlikely both of these AA players will make the club, but they will be in AAA in 2005 and both will be considered for in-season callups if they keep showing they are ready for a shot.  Both are a bit older in terms of being prospects, but in terms of being good young major league #4 or #5 outfielders, they both are at the age where you want to make your move.

Jimerson's talent as a potential five tool player if he makes more contact and ups his pitch recognition prowess is that of a right or center field starter for Houston.  Scott could start in left field for some clubs, but as long as Lane and Berkman are on the Astros, he'll have a tough nut to crack as a starter here.

[HOB]

much appreciated...   7 at bats is hardly enough to justify unchecked optimism but Jimerson does give the impression something clicked with him when he worked with Gwynn.

[jasonact]

I really liked watching Jimerson in the CWS a few years ago. I haven't seen him play since, but I was excited that the Astros got him in the draft. Yes, he's raw. Yes, he Ks too much. But I'd be excited to see what he could do if he improves those in two areas.

[HOB]

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Jimerson adds a cannon arm and excellent instincts as a centerfielder and right fielder.

How does Jimerson compare to Taveras in CF?

[No? in Austin]

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Jimerson adds a cannon arm and excellent instincts as a centerfielder and right fielder.

How does Jimerson compare to Taveras in CF?

Taveras has a little more speed, but not by much.  Jimerson has more leaping ability to climb a wall and bring the ball back into the field (see: Hunter, Torii).  Taveras gets fantastic reads and jumps on a ball hit to the gaps, hence he makes a tough play look routine.  Jimerson may not get the same read, but he hustles once he recognizes the play and by sheer talent alone will make some sort of play on the ball, often leading to spectacular attempts and sometimes spectacular results (see: Edmonds, Jim).

Taveras is the more natural of the two, Jimerson the more exciting.  Makes for two different but very good options to ponder.  Taveras probably has a long career ahead of him as a CF, while Jimerson will eventually move to RF at some point of his career.

[Duman]

Here is a brief blurb on Mitch in the Lexingtion Paper.  Nothing much new, just some quotes from Bogar and Purpura.


The Link

On a side note they have a unique promotion coming on June 24th, the Dallas Cowboy Cheerleaders.  Do I hear road trip?

[Jacksonian]

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Here is a brief blurb on Mitch in the Lexingtion Paper.  Nothing much new, just some quotes from Bogar and Purpura.


The Link

On a side note they have a unique promotion coming on June 24th, the Dallas Cowboy Cheerleaders.  Do I hear road trip?

I want to win the horse.

We'll have a little to say about Mitch when the OWA Astros top 10+ is released sometime before the end of the month.

[jasonact]

Could someone give a brief history of Qualls' minor league career? I know he's been around awhile and had his ups and downs, but I can't remember which were his ups and downs and which were those of other pitchers in the Astros system.

It seems to me that he once projected as a good mid-rotation starter, but it looks like the Astros see him primarily as a reliever now. Is that now his long-term projection? If things work out, whose career might Qualls' career mimic?

Also, any guess as to when the Astros might make the first round of minor league assignments?

Thanks.

[No? in Austin]

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Could someone give a brief history of Qualls' minor league career? I know he's been around awhile and had his ups and downs, but I can't remember which were his ups and downs and which were those of other pitchers in the Astros system.

It seems to me that he once projected as a good mid-rotation starter, but it looks like the Astros see him primarily as a reliever now.

Qualls was selected out of the University of Nevada in 2000.  His 2001 campaign in low A ball Michigan was really good: 15-6 w/l, 3.72 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 125/33 K/BB.  Qualls was often praised by scouts and managers in the Midwest League for his outstanding and unhittable slider.  However, at the time Houston did not have a High A-Ball team anymore, having switch their alliance with Kissimmee and the Florida League and making a new alliance with another low A Ball team in Lexington.  Because Qualls had no more to prove in low A Ball and Houston had no High A-Ball to promote him to, so off to AA Round Rock he went in 2002.  Naturally, he struggled in 2002 due to the transition, posting these stats:  6/13 W/L, 4.36 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 142/67 K/BB.  The Astros wanted to see if once Qualls got acclimated to AA if his numbers would improve to his stellar numbers at Michigan.  Qualls did improve his numbers in 2003 at AA Round Rock, posting these numbers:  8/11 W/L, 3.85 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 132/61 K/BB.  Qualls was helped by a very good second half season at AA in 2003, because he really started off slow and it looked for all the world like he was going to struggle again.  Qualls began to use a sinker more often his second season in AA in 2003, and that helped stabilized his season. Before that, he was primarily a four seam fastball, slider and changeup pitcher.  His second half and the addition of a developing sinker was cause to give him a promotion to AAA New Orleans.  He struggled at AAA but primarily because he couldn't command his change and four seamer as easily as his slider and sinker.  When you start to lose the feel for two of your four pitches you use as a starter and the two you have good command of will help the team out of the pen, the switch was made to give him a chance to close games for the Zephyrs.  He did quite well, salvaging his season because of it.  Houston had need of a set-up man now that Dotel was traded and it coincided with Quall's switch to the pen.  Once he proved he could do the job in AAA, he was given a promotion to Houston and he remained with the club since... as a set-up/middle reliever.

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Is that now his long-term projection? If things work out, whose career might Qualls' career mimic?

I think the way Qualls can lose the feel for pitches as a starter including from one inning to the next pretty much tells you that if Chad is going to return to starting, he has to throw his pitches for strikes much more consistently than he would as a reliever.  His two dominant pitches make him a good candidate to stay a reliever for his career.  He's adding a split-finger this year taught to him by Roger Clemens and they say it's coming along really well.  He gets a good feel for that pitch, he'll have a strikeout pitch to go with his plus slider and sinker.  The split could act as a change of speed and really make him a good pitcher.  I would think Quall's stuff emulates a Miceli, Jay Powell when they were their most effective.  He could do better than both of those guys if he racks up more strikeouts due to a developing split-finger and his plus slider.

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Also, any guess as to when the Astros might make the first round of minor league assignments?

They're just in their first week of minor league camp.  I assume they'll wait until the major league camp starts to send some guys down to thier camp to make the assignments know to everyone.  That is about a week to a week and a half away from happening.

[jasonact]

Thanks. That's exactly the kind of info on Qualls I was looking for.

About the assignments, though, I don't think I was very clear. I meant to ask if anyone knew when the first round of assignments to minor league camp might happen (i.e. players sent to minor league camps). I only ask because I've read that other teams have begun this process, and I've found those assignments helpful in understanding what the big club might be thinking in regards to the 25-man. I realize it's too early to assign players to the actual teams.

Thanks.

[Jacksonian]

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Thanks. That's exactly the kind of info on Qualls I was looking for.

About the assignments, though, I don't think I was very clear. I meant to ask if anyone knew when the first round of assignments to minor league camp might happen (i.e. players sent to minor league camps). I only ask because I've read that other teams have begun this process, and I've found those assignments helpful in understanding what the big club might be thinking in regards to the 25-man. I realize it's too early to assign players to the actual teams.

Thanks.

Are you talking about guys who are at the major league camp being sent to the minor league camp?

Minor leaguers will be assigned to groups based on which team management believes they'll end up in a few days.

[jasonact]

Yup. Thx.

[dashat69]

I hate to do this but could you give ua a quick run-down of who you think the starters are going to be for the pitching staff from Salem up? BTW how do the pitchers look so far into spring training, any surprises,, has anyone noticably benefited from the Ryan school?

[No? in Austin]

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I hate to do this but could you give ua a quick run-down of who you think the starters are going to be for the pitching staff from Salem up?

LINK: Jacsonian list the probable minor league rotations

These are just projections, but a solid guess based on our knowledge to this point.

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BTW how do the pitchers look so far into spring training, any surprises,, has anyone noticably benefited from the Ryan school?

Minor league camp?  If so, no word yet from a source, but going in several guys to look at: Jaime Merchant, Jason Hirsch, Troy Patton, Juan Gutierrez (at major league camp), Fernando Nieve (at major league camp), Mark McLemore (at major league camp), Matt Albers, Derrick Grisby and Felipe Paulino.  Each one of those pitchers has something to show this spring (in some ways, more than just talent on the mound).

[Jacksonian]

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I hate to do this but could you give ua a quick run-down of who you think the starters are going to be for the pitching staff from Salem up?

LINK: Jacsonian list the probable minor league rotations

These are just projections, but a solid guess based on our knowledge to this point.

I'm hoping/expecting one of our sources to let me know in the coming days how the assignments are breaking down.

[stubbyc]

AAA should be.....Buchholz, Gothreaux, Hernandez, Griffiths? Driskill? W. Rodriguez? McClaskey? This is assuming of course that Zeke breaks camp with the big team.

Is Stiehl still viewed as a starter? I think his numbers and age warrant a move up whether it be as a starter or reliever.

I think Gutierrez' placement on the 40 man roster makes him part of the Lexington rotation. They also really like Bartheimer too right?

[No? in Austin]

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AAA should be.....Buchholz, Gothreaux, Hernandez, Griffiths? Driskill? W. Rodriguez? McClaskey? This is assuming of course that Zeke breaks camp with the big team.

Don't be surprised if W. Rodriquez or C. Hernandez break camp with the big club.  It would take trading Redding and/or Duckworth for that to happen.  Or in W. Rodriquez case, Mike Gallo failing to secure a spot on the reliever corps.  Astacio will probably be the one in AAA Round Rock along with Buchholz, Gothreaux, with Griffiths possibly in the mix of starters.  McClaskey is probably a reliever for now, as well as Driskill.  If Hernandez and W. Rodriquez do not make the club in some capacity, expect them to be the other two starters and Griffiths probably goes to relief.  Or maybe W. Rodiriquez goes to the pen permantly at this point to work with Phillip Barzilla as the two top minor league lefty pen members.

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Is Stiehl still viewed as a starter? I think his numbers and age warrant a move up whether it be as a starter or reliever.

Probably more reliever right now until he builds arm strenght.  Expect him in Lexington or Salem as a bullpen member.

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I think Gutierrez' placement on the 40 man roster makes him part of the Lexington rotation. They also really like Bartheimer too right?

Yes and yes.

[Jacksonian]

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AAA should be.....Buchholz, Gothreaux, Hernandez, Griffiths? Driskill? W. Rodriguez? McClaskey? This is assuming of course that Zeke breaks camp with the big team.

Don't be surprised if W. Rodriquez or C. Hernandez break camp with the big club.  It would take trading Redding and/or Duckworth for that to happen.  Or in W. Rodriquez case, Mike Gallo failing to secure a spot on the reliever corps.  Astacio will probably be the one in AAA Round Rock along with Buchholz, Gothreaux, with Griffiths possibly in the mix of starters.  McClaskey is probably a reliever for now, as well as Driskill.  If Hernandez and W. Rodriquez do not make the club in some capacity, expect them to be the other two starters and Griffiths probably goes to relief.  Or maybe W. Rodiriquez goes to the pen permantly at this point to work with Phillip Barzilla as the two top minor league lefty pen members.

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Is Stiehl still viewed as a starter? I think his numbers and age warrant a move up whether it be as a starter or reliever.

Probably more reliever right now until he builds arm strenght.  Expect him in Lexington or Salem as a bullpen member.

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I think Gutierrez' placement on the 40 man roster makes him part of the Lexington rotation. They also really like Bartheimer too right?

Yes and yes.

I'm thinking the AAA rotation is going to look like this: Buchholz, Astacio, Hernandez, Rodriguez, and Gothreaux.  I'm thinking Purpura and Gar are going to go with more experienced bullpen guys to balance the youth of Lidge, Qualls, and Wheeler.  The only thing I think might happen is that as the Astros apparently see Gothreaux as a bullpen guy they might make him a AAA closer.  Big guess on my part.

Agree on Stiehl.  And guess Salem.

Agree on Gutierrez and Barthmeier.

[Jacksonian]

Buchholz and Gimenez to Round Rock, as expected.
Nieve and McLemore to Corpus, as expected
Gutierrez to Lexington, as expected.

[jasonact]

Is that from a published report (link?) or one of your sources?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Nevermind.  Found it.

[johnstros]

Jacksonian-
 
How serious have been the arm problems with Stiehl?  When questions are asked about him to Purpura, he isn't giving much of an answer...  except to say that he is pitching again.  Will there be a good chance of him making the big leagues in 2-3 years?  and would this be the year that the astros say make or break?  and when he has pitched, how has he fared in his league?  i haven't been able to get too much info about him.  

I am not so in touch with the minor league system.  In order from top to lowest, is it round rock, cc, salem, lexington,  tri city, greeneville?      

Thanks

[Jacksonian]

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How serious have been the arm problems with Stiehl?  When questions are asked about him to Purpura, he isn't giving much of an answer...  except to say that he is pitching again.

Extremely serious.  He missed part of 2001 all of 2002 and most of 2003.  In fact, he went about 2 years of not pitching in the system.

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Will there be a good chance of him making the big leagues in 2-3 years?

He has got to prove his arm will hold up.  Plus, IMO, he's got to show he's still got 90+ heat and at least one good off-speed pitch.  I'd say his chances are not good, but he does have a chance.

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and would this be the year that the astros say make or break?

I don't know about make or break.  There are so many things to consider that I can't sit here today and say that.

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and when he has pitched, how has he fared in his league?  i haven't been able to get too much info about him.

Prior to his injury he pitched very well.  Last season, 2004, he got 18 starts and threw about 62 innings.  He struck out 74, walked 21, but had an ERA just above 4.  Prior to his injury his ERA's were sub 2.

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I am not so in touch with the minor league system.  In order from top to lowest, is it round rock, cc, salem, lexington,  tri city, greeneville?

Yes.