Observations

[JimR]

I think Hinch has done a masterful job helping Giles to regain his confidence. Giles was a beast last night. I agree wholeheartedly with BG about JV’s effect on the staff. His influence, and success in the postseason’s Game Sevens have made Morton a confident pitcher. His demeanor on the mound is so different than last year. I also think it is no coincidence Cole’s enormous talent exploded when he came to Houston. I read his compliment to the analytics guys after his electric last start, and JV has been effusive in his praise of them since he came over in the trade. Best trade ever, indeed.

This organization has my complete admiration, and imo, is something to behold. What others do not do even half as well is the integration of analytics into day to day real baseball on the field. Praise from JV and Cole about becoming better pitchers by listening to the analytics guys as well as Strong and by using the information and technology provided is part of it, and sending Mr. Analytics to be a coach on the field in the minors is straight up genius. Houston should be a destination by now for talented free agents, and a trade to Houston should be a cause for celebration. I think (hope?) locking up Altuve is only the beginning of keeping the Core Four together, and if Morton wants to keep playing next year, why would he leave?

This season thus far has had disappointments, of course: a struggling inconsistent offense, especially at the bottom of the order, holes in LF and at DH, Smith’s ineffectiveness, Harris’ lack of swing and miss stuff, no shutdown LHP in the pen, and Marwin’s slow start. With all that, however, the Astros are 20-10 on May 1, and Tucker likely is on the way to see what he can do when the games mean something. I look forward to seeing how Luhnow chooses to tweak this roster to address the disappointments. What a great time to be an Astros fan.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Who are the Core Four? Altuve, Correa, Springer, and Bregman?

[JimR]

Who are the Core Four? Altuve, Correa, Springer, and Bregman?

Yup

[juliogotay]

I think Hinch has done a masterful job helping Giles to regain his confidence. Giles was a beast last night. I agree wholeheartedly with BG about JV’s effect on the staff. His influence, and success in the postseason’s Game Sevens have made Morton a confident pitcher. His demeanor on the mound is so different than last year. I also think it is no coincidence Cole’s enormous talent exploded when he came to Houston. I read his compliment to the analytics guys after his electric last start, and JV has been effusive in his praise of them since he came over in the trade. Best trade ever, indeed.

This organization has my complete admiration, and imo, is something to behold. What others do not do even half as well is the integration of analytics into day to day real baseball on the field. Praise from JV and Cole about becoming better pitchers by listening to the analytics guys as well as Strong and by using the information and technology provided is part of it, and sending Mr. Analytics to be a coach on the field in the minors is straight up genius. Houston should be a destination by now for talented free agents, and a trade to Houston should be a cause for celebration. I think (hope?) locking up Altuve is only the beginning of keeping the Core Four together, and if Morton wants to keep playing next year, why would he leave?

This season thus far has had disappointments, of course: a struggling inconsistent offense, especially at the bottom of the order, holes in LF and at DH, Smith’s ineffectiveness, Harris’ lack of swing and miss stuff, no shutdown LHP in the pen, and Marwin’s slow start. With all that, however, the Astros are 20-10 on May 1, and Tucker likely is on the way to see what he can do when the games mean something. I look forward to seeing how Luhnow chooses to tweak this roster to address the disappointments. What a great time to be an Astros fan.

Great post. All of this is only  possible because of the genius of Luhnow and the smarts of Crane to hire him. I fear the day when Luhnow decides he wants to go to the NY or LA markets (I think his wife is from SoCal and has family there) and hope that there is someone sitting at Luhnow's side taking this all in.

[BudGirl]

Great post. All of this is only  possible because of the genius of Luhnow and the smarts of Crane to hire him. I fear the day when Luhnow decides he wants to go to the NY or LA markets (I think his wife is from SoCal and has family there) and hope that there is someone sitting at Luhnow's side taking this all in.

Why you gotta go there?

But I do agree that Luhnow is a genius.  In Luhnow I trust!

[Astros Fan in Big D]

20-10, tied for best April in franchise history.

And they can play better.

[juliogotay]

20-10, tied for best April in franchise history.

And they can play better.

And they can play better.
I think so too. Offensively anyway. Not sure how they can pitch much better.

[JimR]

Why you gotta go there?

But I do agree that Luhnow is a genius.  In Luhnow I trust!

I agree with your first statement emphatically. smh.

[hostros7]

Great post. All of this is only  possible because of the genius of Luhnow and the smarts of Crane to hire him. I fear the day when Luhnow decides he wants to go to the NY or LA markets (I think his wife is from SoCal and has family there) and hope that there is someone sitting at Luhnow's side taking this all in.

The Astros recently locked up Luhnow with an extension. I don’t know all the details, but, if you’re worried about him departing for Cali, it’s not going to be a concern for several years.


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[juliogotay]

The Astros recently locked up Luhnow with an extension. I don’t know all the details, but, if you’re worried about him departing for Cali, it’s not going to be a concern for several years.


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I see there was an extension in 2014. Not sure the length of contract.

[moriartp]

And Hinch was extended after 2015, but I don't see anything more recent on either him or Luhnow.

[hostros7]

I see there was an extension in 2014. Not sure the length of contract.

This extension was completed this offseason. I don’t think it has been made public yet.


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[juliogotay]

This extension was completed this offseason. I don’t think it has been made public yet.


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wow.

[Randy Watson]

Giles is a head case with great stuff.

[Waldo]

Giles is a head case with great stuff.

Seems pretty levelheaded to me.

[JimR]

Giles is a head case with great stuff.

I do not know the definition of “head case,” but chuck will agree with you. Giles is a standup guy who does not hide from reporters after nights like last night. I admire him for that, and his lack of confidence must frustrate the brain trust no end. I thought Monday showed he had turned a corner, but he has not.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

I do not know the definition of “head case,” but chuck will agree with you. Giles is a standup guy who does not hide from reporters after nights like last night. I admire him for that, and his lack of confidence must frustrate the brain trust no end. I thought Monday showed he had turned a corner, but he has not.

Is he too in love with his slider?
Is he too inconsistent with the FB to lean on it more?

When he went 3-0 on Judge my stomach started churning.

[JimR]

Is he too in love with his slider?
Is he too inconsistent with the FB to lean on it more?

When he went 3-0 on Judge my stomach started churning.

His FB has been the problem last postseason and last night. Judge and Gregorius hit FBs. It is 100 mph but straight, and he must locate it well. I think Sanchez hit a fat slider. He needs a healthy dose of Verlander’s focus on executing each pitch.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

I too believe Giles' problem is between the ears.

[JimR]

I too believe Giles' problem is between the ears.

Is “between the ears” where you put lack of confidence?

[juliogotay]

Is “between the ears” where you put lack of confidence?

either there or in the gut. Or both.

[JimR]

either there or in the gut. Or both.

I will argue with you or anyone who says he is gutless.

[Fredia]

wonder on the why it happened?

[Astros Fan in Big D]

I will argue with you or anyone who says he is gutless.

Agree.  He sticks his head in there and does what he does,  then faces the music afterward.  When he fails, he's pissed about it but does not make excuses.

[Jacksonian]

His FB has been the problem last postseason and last night. Judge and Gregorius hit FBs. It is 100 mph but straight, and he must locate it well. I think Sanchez hit a fat slider. He needs a healthy dose of Verlander’s focus on executing each pitch.

Throwing to hittable locations too often has been his problem.  And yes, he hung a slider down the middle to Sanchez.

[chuck]

I do not know the definition of “head case,” but chuck will agree with you. Giles is a standup guy who does not hide from reporters after nights like last night. I admire him for that, and his lack of confidence must frustrate the brain trust no end. I thought Monday showed he had turned a corner, but he has not.

Not sure what I have to do with any of this but I will say that I thought Hinch's use of Giles in the World Series was masterful.

[JimR]

Not sure what I have to do with any of this but I will say that I thought Hinch's use of Giles in the World Series was masterful.

You have called Giles a head case repeatedly so I took the liberty of thinking you would agree with the description. You may be right. I don’t know.

[Texifornia]

Seems pretty levelheaded to me.

That video fills me with sadness.

[doyce7]

Is he too in love with his slider?
Is he too inconsistent with the FB to lean on it more?

When he went 3-0 on Judge my stomach started churning.

He lacks fastball command at times. When he can command the fastball, then his slider becomes unhittable, like Monday. Its really hard to pitch if you don't trust your fastball and I don't think he trusts it which causes him to overuse the slider and lower its effectiveness. In other words it's a little of column A and a little of column B.

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[JimR]

He lacks fastball command at times. When he can command the fastball, then his slider becomes unhittable, like Monday. Its really hard to pitch if you don't trust your fastball and I don't think he trusts it which causes him to overuse the slider and lower its effectiveness. In other words it's a little of column A and a little of column B.

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If he does not locate his FB like he did Monday, it is hittable because it is straight.

[doyce7]

If he does not locate his FB like he did Monday, it is hittable because it is straight.

Precisely. I don't know what the answer is to getting him to more consistently where he needs to be with it. But I hope the answer can be worked out.

That said, before last night he had been pretty damn good. I think I saw he had 7 games in a row where he didn't give up a baserunner. You're gonna have bad games, I hope last night was a blip and he can put it behind him and get back to mondays mindset

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[JimR]

Precisely. I don't know what the answer is to getting him to more consistently where he needs to be with it. But I hope the answer can be worked out.

That said, before last night he had been pretty damn good. I think I saw he had 7 games in a row where he didn't give up a baserunner. You're gonna have bad games, I hope last night was a blip and he can put it behind him and get back to mondays mindset

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I do as well. JV has said he focuses so much on the execution of each pitch, he loses track of the score, the inning, and who the hitter is. I wonder if Giles has tried that.

[chuck]

You have called Giles a head case repeatedly so I took the liberty of thinking you would agree with the description. You may be right. I don’t know.

To me a headcase is sports is a player who has enough talent but cannot properly harness it due to a lack of mental, if I had to choose a single word I'd probably say focus. A lack of mental focus. A lot of people consider acting out to be indicative of being a headcase, a John McEnroe type or that idiot Cardinal reliever who attacked the phone, whatever his name was. To me, that's not headcase, that's just asshole. Headcase applies when there is an unfortunate impact on performance. Often this will snowball, like a golfer with the yips or an infielder who repeatedly overthrows the first baseman and imperils geriatric and other slow moving or inattentive fans otherwise enjoying good seats.

I can't tell whether Giles is a headcase or not. I do know that apart from baseball and his place in it he is nuts. Baseball has more than its share of high performing players who are or were cheerfully eccentric. My sense is that in Giles' case it goes beyond anything too cheerful.

But who knows, you know, maybe he just has trouble maintaining a consistent arm angle.

[JimR]

To me a headcase is sports is a player who has enough talent but cannot properly harness it due to a lack of mental, if I had to choose a single word I'd probably say focus. A lack of mental focus. A lot of people consider acting out to be indicative of being a headcase, a John McEnroe type or that idiot Cardinal reliever who attacked the phone, whatever his name was. To me, that's not headcase, that's just asshole. Headcase applies when there is an unfortunate impact on performance. Often this will snowball, like a golfer with the yips or an infielder who repeatedly overthrows the first baseman and imperils geriatric and other slow moving or inattentive fans otherwise enjoying good seats.

I can't tell whether Giles is a headcase or not. I do know that apart from baseball and his place in it he is nuts. Baseball has more than its share of high performing players who are or were cheerfully eccentric. My sense is that in Giles' case it goes beyond anything too cheerful.

But who knows, you know, maybe he just has trouble maintaining a consistent arm angle.

If you include lack of focus as a “head case,” maybe he is. I have no clue why you think he is nuts outside of baseball.

[NeilT]

I've started wondering if it's a lack of talent, and lack isn't quite the right word.  He's so consistently inconsistent I wonder if his talent is as well.  We expect him to pitch brilliantly every pitch, but maybe he can only do it some of the time? 

[doyce7]

Giles has pitched in 12 games, hes given up runs in 3 and hits in 4 of his appearances. Of the 3 hes given up run(s) in, the first came with a 4 run lead, he gave up 1. The second came with the astros trailing 2-1 and he gave up 1. And last night was obviously a shitty night for him but I think were maybe a little to harsh on him

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[juliogotay]

Giles has pitched in 12 games, hes given up runs in 3 and hits in 4 of his appearances. Of the 3 hes given up run(s) in, the first came with a 4 run lead, he gave up 1. The second came with the astros trailing 2-1 and he gave up 1. And last night was obviously a shitty night for him but I think were maybe a little to harsh on him

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the fact that it was against the Yankees magnifies the failure.

[doyce7]

the fact that it was against the Yankees magnifies the failure.

I would agree but this happens everytime Giles has a bad game

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[Jacksonian]

I would agree but this happens everytime Giles has a bad game

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Part of it, IMO, is the 2017 playoff failures.  Another large part of it is that his pure stuff is so good that there's a sense he shouldn't get hit as often as he does.  And, as indicated above, timing of his failures.

[JimR]

Part of it, IMO, is the 2017 playoff failures.  Another large part of it is that his pure stuff is so good that there's a sense he shouldn't get hit as often as he does.  And, as indicated above, timing of his failures.

Agreed, and fans expect closers to be perfect because the importance of the one inning they pitched. OWA’s reaction to Giles is not unique. What was Wagner’s nickname here? How about the reaction to Lidge?

[TerryPuhl21]

Giles has pitched in 12 games, hes given up runs in 3 and hits in 4 of his appearances. Of the 3 hes given up run(s) in, the first came with a 4 run lead, he gave up 1. The second came with the astros trailing 2-1 and he gave up 1. And last night was obviously a shitty night for him but I think were maybe a little to harsh on him

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So at this pace the above means that in 25% of Giles’ appearances this year we can count on him giving up a run or more. I did some checking on last year and he gave up runs in 12 of 63 appearances which was slightly better at about 19%. Now, I haven’t compared his numbers to other closers but both numbers, especially the 25% this year, seems like way too much off the top of my head for my closer. Statistically, he only blew 4 saves last year but there were several games where he came in with a two run lead, gave up 1, and still got the save. I think he’s done that once this year if I’m not mistaken. That blown save number of 4 last year would have been considerably higher if he came in more often with just 1 run to play with.

I don’t know about him. Just can’t figure him out. Jim is right, he stands up in front of everyone and takes his medicine like a big boy when stuff like last night happens. Much respect to him for that and it makes me pull really hard for the guy. On the other hand, I REALLY hate to seen him walk in from the pen in a close game. I just have no confidence in him and I hate to say that. What surprised me wasn’t last night, it was the night before when he mowed them down.

His fastball is flat and straight. Even average major league hitters will catch up to that. He has good stuff but he must commit himself to learning HOW TO PITCH, not just how to throw. While I know most closers are two pitch kind of guys, I wonder if a change up added to his stuff would help him. At any rate, he just really needs to work on his location with whatever he decides to throw.


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[JimR]

To me, the issue is not how many runs he gives up; the issue is whether he saves the game. Giving up 1 with a 2 run lead is fine with me (Game 4 v. Boston, Game 1 v. NYY) as long as he closes out a win. He has buckets of talent but does not consistently execute his pitches.

[doyce7]

So at this pace the above means that in 25% of Giles’ appearances this year we can count on him giving up a run or more. I did some checking on last year and he gave up runs in 12 of 63 appearances which was slightly better at about 19%. Now, I haven’t compared his numbers to other closers but both numbers, especially the 25% this year, seems like way too much off the top of my head for my closer. Statistically, he only blew 4 saves last year but there were several games where he came in with a two run lead, gave up 1, and still got the save. I think he’s done that once this year if I’m not mistaken. That blown save number of 4 last year would have been considerably higher if he came in more often with just 1 run to play with.

I don’t know about him. Just can’t figure him out. Jim is right, he stands up in front of everyone and takes his medicine like a big boy when stuff like last night happens. Much respect to him for that and it makes me pull really hard for the guy. On the other hand, I REALLY hate to seen him walk in from the pen in a close game. I just have no confidence in him and I hate to say that. What surprised me wasn’t last night, it was the night before when he mowed them down.

His fastball is flat and straight. Even average major league hitters will catch up to that. He has good stuff but he must commit himself to learning HOW TO PITCH, not just how to throw. While I know most closers are two pitch kind of guys, I wonder if a change up added to his stuff would help him. At any rate, he just really needs to work on his location with whatever he decides to throw.


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Giles may not be an elite closer, but how many are there? 4? 5? Is kenley Jansen elite? He has the same 25% ratio as Giles. No closer is perfect.


On the subject of multi run leads, when up by 2 or more, you be aggressive. Sometimes this will lead to a homer or a double that then ends up scoring. That's fine, just finish the game, that's all I ask, finish the game and keep me on top

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[JimR]

Giles may not be an elite closer, but how many are there? 4? 5? Is kenley Jansen elite? He has the same 25% ratio as Giles. No closer is perfect.


On the subject of multi run leads, when up by 2 or more, you be aggressive. Sometimes this will lead to a homer or a double that then ends up scoring. That's fine, just finish the game, that's all I ask, finish the game and keep me on top

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This.

[TerryPuhl21]

Giles may not be an elite closer, but how many are there? 4? 5? Is kenley Jansen elite? He has the same 25% ratio as Giles. No closer is perfect.


On the subject of multi run leads, when up by 2 or more, you be aggressive. Sometimes this will lead to a homer or a double that then ends up scoring. That's fine, just finish the game, that's all I ask, finish the game and keep me on top

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I agree with that as well. The bottom line is did you save the game?? My point was that the more often he gives up runs, which in this year’s small sample size is more often than last year, the less likely he is to save said game, potentially.


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[HudsonHawk]

Moving on to observations of another issue...the bats. I think the biggest single issue is they are putting themselves in bad counts and that’s leading to bad things. When you’re scuffling, the first thing you ask yourself is “am I swinging at good pitches?”  That not only means laying off the junk, but putting a good swing on the pitches you can do something with. The Astros, for whatever reason, takes too many good pitches, then find themselves in pitchers’ counts. I understand that sometimes that happens...hitters get fooled, the pitcher makes great pitches to you. But I see an alarming lack of aggressiveness in the zone. Being selective is one thing, it leads to good swings. Being timid is another that leads to chasing...strikeouts and weak contact.  I see things like “to be fair, that was a nasty slider...”. Yeah it was and you were forced to swing at it because you took two hittable pitches and were down 0-2. I don’t know the cause if this, or perhaps I’m just imagining it. But it sure seems worse than last year.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

Moving on to observations of another issue...the bats. I think the biggest single issue is they are putting themselves in bad counts and that’s leading to bad things. When you’re scuffling, the first thing you ask yourself is “am I swinging at good pitches?”  That not only means laying off the junk, but putting a good swing on the pitches you can do something with. The Astros, for whatever reason, takes too many good pitches, then find themselves in pitchers’ counts. I understand that sometimes that happens...hitters get fooled, the pitcher makes great pitches to you. But I see an alarming lack of aggressiveness in the zone. Being selective is one thing, it leads to good swings. Being timid is another that leads to chasing...strikeouts and weak contact.  I see things like “to be fair, that was a nasty slider...”. Yeah it was and you were forced to swing at it because you took two hittable pitches and were down 0-2. I don’t know the cause if this, or perhaps I’m just imagining it. But it sure seems worse than last year.

Team BA and K numbers totally back this up.

[doyce7]

Moving on to observations of another issue...the bats. I think the biggest single issue is they are putting themselves in bad counts and that’s leading to bad things. When you’re scuffling, the first thing you ask yourself is “am I swinging at good pitches?”  That not only means laying off the junk, but putting a good swing on the pitches you can do something with. The Astros, for whatever reason, takes too many good pitches, then find themselves in pitchers’ counts. I understand that sometimes that happens...hitters get fooled, the pitcher makes great pitches to you. But I see an alarming lack of aggressiveness in the zone. Being selective is one thing, it leads to good swings. Being timid is another that leads to chasing...strikeouts and weak contact.  I see things like “to be fair, that was a nasty slider...”. Yeah it was and you were forced to swing at it because you took two hittable pitches and were down 0-2. I don’t know the cause if this, or perhaps I’m just imagining it. But it sure seems worse than last year.

Absolutely agree. So many meat fastballs being watched rather than hammered. They mentioned on the broadcast that they are 29th against 94+ fastballs and I think this is because many of those hittable fastballs are to start a count and they don't swing at first pitch fastballs this year.

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[BizidyDizidy]

Maybe he should try pine tar?

[Fredia]

even with the same players (majority) this team at this point is not playing the same.  During the ws if one had a  itch, the other players seemed to know to scratch. No questions asked, the team was as one.  Not the most eloquently said, but they do not seem to have the same being in sync.   

[das]

Absolutely agree. So many meat fastballs being watched rather than hammered. They mentioned on the broadcast that they are 29th against 94+ fastballs and I think this is because many of those hittable fastballs are to start a count and they don't swing at first pitch fastballs this year.

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...and, last night was a perfect example of this as they were down 0-2 repeatedly on first and second pitch strikes on FB's.  That said, Severino was dealing with pinpoint control.  The thing is, this was an area of strength for the team last year.  They hunted fastballs including excellent FB's of those of like Severino, Chapman, etc...  I was trying to think of what the change is and the only thing I can think of is Cora (who's Sox are feasting on FB's this year) is gone as is Beltran.

[Jacksonian]

I was trying to think of what the change is and the only thing I can think of is Cora (who's Sox are feasting on FB's this year) is gone as is Beltran.

The other change is the year and their experiences and consequences from it.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Giles has pitched in 12 games, hes given up runs in 3 and hits in 4 of his appearances. Of the 3 hes given up run(s) in, the first came with a 4 run lead, he gave up 1. The second came with the astros trailing 2-1 and he gave up 1. And last night was obviously a shitty night for him but I think were maybe a little to harsh on him

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For a while now, I've wanted to do a deep dive on Giles' performance when he comes in with a decent lead.  My gut says that if he has a lead of 3+, he'll give up a run or two, but not blow the game.  And when the lead is more narrow, he's mostly reliable.  Sort of a "bend don't break" concept.  Am I alone in seeing his performance this way?

[Bench]

For a while now, I've wanted to do a deep dive on Giles' performance when he comes in with a decent lead.  My gut says that if he has a lead of 3+, he'll give up a run or two, but not blow the game.  And when the lead is more narrow, he's mostly reliable.  Sort of a "bend don't break" concept.  Am I alone in seeing his performance this way?

When he breaks he does it pretty quickly.

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

For a while now, I've wanted to do a deep dive on Giles' performance when he comes in with a decent lead.  My gut says that if he has a lead of 3+, he'll give up a run or two, but not blow the game.  And when the lead is more narrow, he's mostly reliable.  Sort of a "bend don't break" concept.  Am I alone in seeing his performance this way?

My heart sinks a wee bit when I see him come in when the game is tied or in extra innings in a non-save opportunity. I don't know the numbers and it also seems to be a problem with a number of good closers. It's like they change their mental approach or something when not protecting a lead.

[Knoxbanedoodle]

My heart sinks a wee bit when I see him come in when the game is tied or in extra innings in a non-save opportunity. I don't know the numbers and it also seems to be a problem with a number of good closers. It's like they change their mental approach or something when not protecting a lead.

That’s been my experience too. He seems particularly vulnerable to that curse.

[Astros Fan in Big D]

Baseball reference,  under the Clutch Stats heading:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=gileske01&year=2017&t=p

Last year he appeared in 8 tie games,  gave up 4 runs.

This year he's appeared in 3 this games and given up 3 runs.

I don't think that included WS G4.