Hate September. Love 2015. Love Jeff Luhnow. Question some trade deadline and roster decisions. The progression has been amazing. What's next is fascinating.
Catcher: Hardest decision is in the offseason will be retain Jason Castro. Had a very good defensive season. I fear that his offensive stats are now his new normal. Don't think he has huge value on the open market, but do think he will likely command $3-$5 million for 3 years. We can afford it. The question will be whether we should pay it. For me Hank Conger is far too limited defensively. I questioned the Tropeano trade. I still do. Particularly with Stassi seasoned at AAA and Perez at AA being reputed as best defensive cather in the organization. Plus, the AFL experiment of moving Tyler White behind home plate. Unlike in Middle Infield positions, farm system seems to be good, not great at this spot, All signs point to keeping him in my view, and hopefully in rotation with Stassi provided that Max can win the spot in training camp.
First Base: How I hate Chris Carter the baseball player. How the front office loves him. He hit 25 dingers in a crap season. I suspect that there will be rationale that he will hit 40 in a good one. Then the strange enigmatic case of Jon Singleton, from super prospect to super flop in just over a season. Absolutely was outplayed by Tyler White and by Matt Duffy at AAA. Both of whom would appear to be ready for their shot, but neither given much of a chance to contribute down the stretch. And then of course AA phenom AJ Reed. Plus Valbuena and Gonzales both capable of playing the spot allowing for a June call up for young Mr. Reed. Typically too many options means no true star, but in this case, I think it is lots of options to find a star ... or simply settle into Carter's 30 HR, .200 batting average. Personally, I would love to see a guy who can at least produce at a .250 clip while still providing 25 HRS and 85+ RBIs . This will likely be the final battle of training camp and its outcome likely marks the success or failure of 2016.
Second Base: Jose Altuve backed by Marwin and potentially even Jon Villar who has been far better this season than last. Nolan Fontana has to factor somewhat into the mix in training camp fighting for back up spot ... particularly if the Astros commit to Gonzales as a regular at 3B.
Shortstop: For the next 10 years the answer will be Correa. Again, MarGo and Villar and Fontana all could fill role in utility need.
Third Base: Like first, an interesting opportunity. Jed was hurt too much of the season to know whether he can be that .265, 15HR, 75 RBI corner infielder. Loved Valbuena's glove, not so much the all or nothing home plate appearances. Wouldn't be a shock to see the Astros stay with these two, but Matt Duffy can certainly play the corner, as can MarGo. And Collin Moran had a very nice second half of the year at AA. Might be ready to compete for the job.
Right Field: George just gonna be George. Need 162 healthy games, or at least 150+.
Center Field: For next year it has to be Carlos Gomez. Astros traded far too much talent to give up on him after a bad second half with us. Players have down years and he certainly had one. But he hasn't lost his wheels and his bat speed isn't down. He plays hard and adds another Plus glove to the outfield.
Left Field: I had hoped that Preston Tucker would lock the position up, but his playing time has decreased and his ABs have become less productive I think caused by lack of consistent playing time. He has to have a shot, but he will be pressed by both Jake Mrasnick who is just a dynamic force in the outfield, MarGo who swings an always improving bat, and I think Andrew Aplin, a guy that might be the best defended of a great bunch of defenders. DatDude21 had a very good second half at AAA. I suspect his play was part of the reason that Luhnow was willing to deal Maverick.
Rotation: Keuchel, McHugh and McCullers have to be inked onto the card. In my view Kazmir became a whole lot more affordable and equally less desirable with his performance in Houston. Feldman has one more costly year on his contract. Appel, Devenski and Velasquez all should be in the mix, as should Michael Feliz if the club doesn't convert him to a closer. I think that the baseball world will buzz for the Astros to make a signature signing ... and if they are willing to pay $150 to a SP for 5 years, David Price would be the guy that you would pay that money for. Problem is that price may well get $200 million, and I don't think the Astros are the team to eat that type of a contract whereas Boston and New York will be desperate to have him in their uniform. I would bet that the Astros will be more willing to spend big money on a big armed closer then on a starter with Velasquez and Appel so close to being ready an Kuechel and McCullers looking like a 1/2 combination that we can live with for years. Somehow I think they get a midrange deal done with Kazmir and hope that his second half challenges go away allowing the 4 young guys to battle it out for the #5 slot (Velasquez, Appel, Devenski, Feliz).
Bullpen: Who the heck knows? Harris pitched out of his mind. Gregerson gave us everything we could have hoped for. Neshek until September was nails. Sipp remained largely effective in spot situations. Qualls is gonna be Qualls. In short, one power armed closer at the back end pushing Gregerson to the 8th and Neshek/Harris to the 7th and we are likely looking very complete. Not sure how stupid the new Padre GM will be about Kimbrell. He would be ideal, even if the asking price is Appel and anyone in the farm system other than Bregman and Reed. Regardless, I suspect Jeff will tinker around at the back end and possibly to find a better second lefty than Perez and Thatcher.
DH: I like Evan Gattis. Take away the first month of the season and he hits .260 with 30 HRs and 90 RBIs. Plus he appears to be great in the clubhouse. Tyler White will give him a run for his money in Spring Training, and then of course there is Chris Carter. I know that some don't think he is the guy. I do.
Biggest Potential Surprise: Bregman makes the leap to the bigs and takes on the 3B role. He certainly is advanced as a hitter, would significantly upgrade the position defensively, and could become another high on base percentage, low strikeout hitter that team needs to avoid those ugly 10k, 7 RISP games that this season has produced.
Biggest Offseason Need: Closer to fortify the rest of the pen moving Gregerson and crew all up an inning.
Projected 2016 Starting Line-up
Gomez (CF)
Altuve (2b)
Springer (RF)
Correa (SS)
Gattis (DH)
Reed (1B) post June 1
Lowrie (3B)
Gonzales (LF)
Castro/Stassi (C)
SP: Keuchel, McCullers, Kazmir, McHugh, Velasquez
BP: New closer (Feliz?), new LHP,
Super excited already about next season. Other than Lowrie and Castro, I don't think there is an everyday player in the line-up, including Altuve, who doesn't have a bit of room for growth. A 2013 Carlos Gomez legitimizes the team as a true World Series contender provided that pitching holds up. And if the Astros are willing to throw money at a David Price ... well ... just would be excited as hell.
