Author Topic: So....how good is this team, really?  (Read 9851 times)

JJxvi

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So....how good is this team, really?
« on: May 04, 2015, 10:45:06 am »
I know whenever I hear other people talk about the Astros they are still giving the "it's early" caveat.  And my "gut feel" wants to mostly agree with that, but the Astros have built up such a nice lead so fast that the math is starting to say that this team will definitely be in contention this year.  Baseball Prospectus says that the Astros have 53% chance of winning the division or wild card. 44% chance of making the divisional round and are the most likely playoff participant and most likely division winner in the AL West (which is apparently wide open, unless you're the Rangers).

Also, the underlying assumption to the math is that the Astros are really a .486 team, and even with that, the probabilities are suggesting they will be in contention to the end this year.  If they are actually a better than .500 team, then really the Astros are already in the drivers seat, :o

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

JimR

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2015, 10:48:17 am »
how's about we watch em one game at a time?
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JJxvi

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2015, 10:50:05 am »
Unfortunately they aren't playing right now, so my mind is wandering.  :(

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2015, 10:55:03 am »
During the streak I've decided that they are the best Astros team I've known, and I'm picking out my socks to wear to the World Series.  When they're not winning, I'll decide that they're all bums.
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subnuclear

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2015, 10:59:55 am »
It's early, but winning games is always good. The A's, Angels and Mariners will find a way to get better, though.

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2015, 11:00:32 am »
Better than I thought they could be.  It may be about time to change my avatar.
I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing AstroTurf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, torture of Bud Selig.

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2015, 11:11:39 am »
Better than I thought they could be.  It may be about time to change my avatar.
Right now, don't change a thing

MusicMan

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2015, 11:12:20 am »
Right now, don't change a thing
Good point.  I'll continue respecting the streak.
I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing AstroTurf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, torture of Bud Selig.

HudsonHawk

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2015, 11:13:48 am »
Well, it *is* early.  We're still three weeks from Memorial Day.  Even your gut must agree with that.  It's nice to be in this position.  All games count.  But it's far too soon to be calculating winning percentages and magic numbers.  Relax.  Enjoy the way they're playing.  It's a been a while. 
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

Arky Vaughan

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2015, 11:33:05 am »
They're this good right now. Just go with it.

JJxvi

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2015, 11:37:31 am »
The thing that annoys me that I get from some others elsewhere who say "it's early" is when its meant to be kind of dismissive in manner, as if what the Astros have done so far doesn't mean anything and to come back in June or whatever and they will be at the bottom.

HudsonHawk

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2015, 11:48:41 am »
The thing that annoys me that I get from some others elsewhere who say "it's early" is when its meant to be kind of dismissive in manner, as if what the Astros have done so far doesn't mean anything and to come back in June or whatever and they will be at the bottom.

Well then "some others" are idiots.  Don't pay them any attention.  Enjoy that your team is playing well right now. 
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

Arky Vaughan

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #12 on: May 04, 2015, 11:55:03 am »
"It's early" is a way of pointing out that somebody batting .410 at the end of April probably isn't going to be batting .410 at the end of September. Just so, the Astros aren't likely to win 116 games, not least because no team's likely to win 116 games.

But the 18 victories are in the bank now and can't be taken out, the games have been delightful to watch, and even if the Astros went .500 the rest of the season, they'd still win 87 games, which is enough to contend.

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #13 on: May 04, 2015, 12:06:43 pm »
I predicted in RFTL that we'd win 73 games, i.e., a modest improvement over last season. We'd have to go 55-82, which I don't see happening either. I figured that the stRangers would be a lot better than they've been thus far and that the SeaShits and Halos would be strong. Jered Weaver is pitching for shit right now and looks like he might be done. Iwakuma is on the DL, and the SeaSlugs are deplorable when King Felix and Happless aren't on the hill. The bottom line is that the division, which should have been strong, may not be. I'm cautiously optimistic and have chosen to play this out one game at a time.
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JimR

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2015, 12:32:40 pm »
I predicted in RFTL that we'd win 73 games, i.e., a modest improvement over last season. We'd have to go 55-82, which I don't see happening either. I figured that the stRangers would be a lot better than they've been thus far and that the SeaShits and Halos would be strong. Jered Weaver is pitching for shit right now and looks like he might be done. Iwakuma is on the DL, and the SeaSlugs are deplorable when King Felix and Happless aren't on the hill. The bottom line is that the division, which should have been strong, may not be. I'm cautiously optimistic and have chosen to play this out one game at a time.

a very wise strategy.

a partner of mine today said "I hope they're not just winning now and will collapse later." holyfuckingshit, says I. every game you win now is one you do not have to win later. he kept up his pessimism as though it would be better if they were not winning now.

holyfuckingshit.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2015, 01:00:30 pm by JimR »
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moriartp

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #15 on: May 04, 2015, 12:50:59 pm »


...even if the Astros went .500 the rest of the season, they'd still win 87 games, which is enough to contend.

After the past few years, it's such a great feeling to read this.


Mr. Happy

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #16 on: May 04, 2015, 12:57:15 pm »
a very wise strategy.



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TxRascal

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #17 on: May 04, 2015, 12:57:33 pm »
The thing that annoys me that I get from some others elsewhere who say "it's early" is when its meant to be kind of dismissive in manner, as if what the Astros have done so far doesn't mean anything and to come back in June or whatever and they will be at the bottom.

Point out to your expert friends that wins in April count exactly as much as wins in August and September...
"It's a bottom line business where a lot of gray suits are brought in and then, within two years, these guys suddenly know everything about baseball."  Don Drysdale

Fredia

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #18 on: May 04, 2015, 01:06:12 pm »
this team is playing like this team should play. ignoring all of the jump oners and looky loos who say whommm should i support them now?
forever is composed entirely of nows

JimR

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #19 on: May 04, 2015, 01:06:53 pm »
Point out to your expert friends that wins in April count exactly as much as wins in August and September...

nice to see you around here, TR.
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TxRascal

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #20 on: May 04, 2015, 01:11:30 pm »
nice to see you around here, TR.

Thanks Coach.  I met your next generation counterpart the other day.  Besides being 30 years younger the only other difference is he was a catcher, not a pitcher.

Crustier than a 3 day old baguette.

My baseball education continues.
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JimR

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #21 on: May 04, 2015, 01:13:06 pm »
Thanks Coach.  I met your next generation counterpart the other day.  Besides being 30 years younger the only other difference is he was a catcher, not a pitcher.

Crustier than a 3 day old baguette.

My baseball education continues.


crusty? me?
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Duke

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #22 on: May 04, 2015, 01:20:17 pm »
Whatever we do we don't need to piss off the baseball Gods.  Headed to KFC for the ritual chicken.

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #23 on: May 04, 2015, 01:25:12 pm »
Whatever we do we don't need to piss off the baseball Gods.  Headed to KFC for the ritual chicken.

I did an unsustainable amount of yard work this week. I still need to mow my lawn, so I'm going to try to do the front yard today and the back yard tomorrow to split things up. May need to get creative if this thing continues.

NeilT

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #24 on: May 04, 2015, 02:02:41 pm »
nice to see you around here, TR.

One good thing about a win streak is that the busiest posting isn't in the Bus Ride.  I've never know so much stuff about the
Astros' minor league teams.
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Mr. Happy

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #25 on: May 04, 2015, 02:22:09 pm »
One good thing about a win streak is that the busiest posting isn't in the Bus Ride.  I've never know so much stuff about the
Astros' minor league teams.

Agreed. The bus riders have the system covered like a fucking blanket.
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Limey

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #26 on: May 04, 2015, 02:31:46 pm »
Well, it *is* early.  We're still three weeks from Memorial Day.  Even your gut must agree with that.  It's nice to be in this position.  All games count.  But it's far too soon to be calculating winning percentages and magic numbers.  Relax.  Enjoy the way they're playing.  It's a been a while.

I know I've been out of this for a while, but I distinctly remember Fox telling me that games in September are worth double those in April.  It's a simple FACT!
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Fredia

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #27 on: May 04, 2015, 02:44:45 pm »
agreed.. that is not a man behind the curtain
nothing to see here move on
forever is composed entirely of nows

BudGirl

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #28 on: May 04, 2015, 03:05:28 pm »
Sometimes you just have to lay back and enjoy the ride while its happening. 
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juliogotay

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #29 on: May 04, 2015, 03:11:51 pm »
He looks like he could slide into the closer role if need be.

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #30 on: May 04, 2015, 03:34:20 pm »
Pretty well-reasoned article, minus the editing gaff on Aiken/Appel at the end.

https://www.numberfire.com/mlb/news/5191/how-the-houston-astros-became-baseball-s-hottest-team
Another trenchant comment by a jealous lesser intellect.

roadrunner

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #31 on: May 04, 2015, 03:59:53 pm »
He looks like he could slide into the closer role if need be.

I'm absolutely getting way ahead of myself, but I like the idea of McCullers being a secret bullpen weapon for the playoffs, aka Brandon Finnegan last year.

Dark Star

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #32 on: May 04, 2015, 04:32:05 pm »
Sometimes you just have to lay back and enjoy the ride while its happening.

As I think Clayton Williams once said.
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Reuben

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #33 on: May 04, 2015, 08:30:07 pm »
He looks like he could slide into the closer role if need be.
Who does?
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JimR

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #34 on: May 05, 2015, 06:45:15 am »
As I think Clayton Williams once said.

Exactly what I thought when she posted
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BudGirl

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #35 on: May 05, 2015, 06:48:27 am »
Exactly what I thought when she posted

I have no idea what the reference you to are mentioning is.
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austro

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #36 on: May 05, 2015, 07:24:30 am »
I have no idea what the reference you to are mentioning is.

Claytie was running for governor against Ann Richards when he made a remark about something being similar to rape, and if it's going to happen "you might as well lay back and enjoy it." In that day, at least, that was over the line and did permanent damage to his campaign.
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BizidyDizidy

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #37 on: May 05, 2015, 07:37:30 am »
Claytie was running for governor against Ann Richards when he made a remark about something being similar to rape, and if it's going to happen "you might as well lay back and enjoy it." In that day, at least, that was over the line and did permanent damage to his campaign.

Quote from: Todd Akin
Yeah, today that would be totally fine.
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NeilT

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #38 on: May 05, 2015, 08:08:07 am »
These guys are bums.
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JimR

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #39 on: May 05, 2015, 08:46:59 am »
These guys are bums.

someone must have changed his/her socks.
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juliogotay

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #40 on: May 05, 2015, 08:53:37 am »
Who does?

Will Harris looks like he could slide into the closers role if need be. I think this has been moved to the wrong thread somehow.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2015, 08:57:22 am by juliogotay »

Fredia

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #41 on: May 05, 2015, 09:04:21 am »
qualls are bums
forever is composed entirely of nows

HudsonHawk

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #42 on: May 05, 2015, 09:12:56 am »
Claytie was running for governor against Ann Richards when he made a remark about something being similar to rape, and if it's going to happen "you might as well lay back and enjoy it." In that day, at least, that was over the line and did permanent damage to his campaign.

He compared rape to bad weather, saying "if it's inevitable, just relax and enjoy it."  This was in conjunction with his remarks about a Texas womens organization whom he called "a roomful of cattle".  He had been leading in the polls by a huge margin, like 20 points, until that point, at which his campaign took a nosedive. 

As was already mentioned, today our governor would criticize him for being soft on bad weather.  And cattle. 
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

BudGirl

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #43 on: May 05, 2015, 09:13:09 am »
someone must have changed his/her socks.

I'll admit it, I changed my unmentionables.
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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #44 on: May 05, 2015, 09:14:14 am »
I'll admit it, I changed my unmentionables.

one must respect the streak, as MM said.
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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #45 on: May 05, 2015, 09:15:04 am »
Claytie was running for governor against Ann Richards when he made a remark about something being similar to rape, and if it's going to happen "you might as well lay back and enjoy it." In that day, at least, that was over the line and did permanent damage to his campaign.

Now it sounds familiar.  Please note, I was not meaning it in that context.
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BudGirl

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #46 on: May 05, 2015, 09:15:35 am »
one must respect the streak, as MM said.

true, but I had been changing them during the whole streak. 
''I just did an interview with someone I like more than you. I used a lot of big words on him. I don't have anything left for you.'' --Brad Ausmus

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JimR

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #47 on: May 05, 2015, 09:16:38 am »
true, but I had been changing them during the whole streak.

ah, my bad.
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Bench

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #48 on: May 05, 2015, 09:27:03 am »
As was already mentioned, today our governor would criticize him for being soft on bad weather.  And cattle.

Our governor would instruct the Texas national guard to stand post and monitor the weather and cattle.
"Holy shit, Mozart. Get me off this fucking thing."

Dark Star

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #49 on: May 05, 2015, 10:47:08 am »
Now it sounds familiar.  Please note, I was not meaning it in that context.

I was reasonably sure you weren't; but, I couldn't help it. I guess I was feeling a little nostalgic.

Clayton Williams was a quintessential Texas good old boy/major dumbass in the classic mold. You hardly see them anymore, at least on TV. I kind of miss those guys.

Claytie could have very easily been our Governor ... hell, he would have been ... if he could have just managed to keep his mouth shut, or at least moderate his comments a bit. But he couldn't, of course. It's what made him what he was.

Although his comments about rape were despicable, I think I'd prefer his type of stoopid comic relief to a lot of the guys out there nowadays, who just seem to want to jam polemics down our throats.
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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #50 on: May 05, 2015, 11:02:09 am »
Although his comments about rape were despicable, I think I'd prefer his type of stoopid comic relief to a lot of the guys out there nowadays, who just seem to want to jam polemics down our throats.

Jon Stewart's comment about our current goobernatorial buffoonery was classic:

"So Texas, you have to ask yourself...and I never thought I'd ever say this....'what would Rick Perry do?'"
The rules of distinction were thrown out with the baseball cap.  It does not lend itself to protocol.  It is found today on youth in homes, classrooms, even in fine restaurants.  Regardless of its other consequences, this is a breach against civility.  A civilized man should avoid this mania.

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #51 on: May 05, 2015, 02:55:32 pm »
He compared rape to bad weather, saying "if it's inevitable, just relax and enjoy it."  This was in conjunction with his remarks about a Texas womens organization whom he called "a roomful of cattle".  He had been leading in the polls by a huge margin, like 20 points, until that point, at which his campaign took a nosedive. 

As was already mentioned, today our governor would criticize him for being soft on bad weather.  And cattle.

He also refused to shake her hand.  Dumb.  Even for that aggy.

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #52 on: May 05, 2015, 03:18:09 pm »
rick perry does have good hair. wonder if it is real...hmmm
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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #53 on: May 05, 2015, 04:06:29 pm »
He also refused to shake her hand.  Dumb.  Even for that aggy.

After he lost the election to Ann Richards, some of his supporters urged Williams to try again next time around. His response was something along the lines of, "I may be an Aggie, but I'm not crazy."

Still, I didn't think it was fair to bring up his Aggie-ness in this context. Texas A & M did not have the monopoly on yahoo alumni bid-nessmen who had enough money (and not enough class) to go around saying crazy shit like Clay-tie did.

By no means, did they.
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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #54 on: May 06, 2015, 07:09:56 am »
Last night's game is proof that the Astros, while improved in the bullpen and on the field, desperately need a few starting pitchers if we want to contend. As far as I'm concerned, Feldman is a pinball machine who can't be counted on. I don't know whether Wojo or Oberholtzer will ever amount to much, but I doubt that either is ready to take on a playoff run just yet. We need for some of the minor league phenoms to step up and contribute as early as this year, and that may be asking too much out of them too.

Basically, we've got Keuchel and McHugh and pray for rain. Deduno is an enigma and has been for his entire career--good arm but very inconsistent. Carmonadez is adequate, but he won't take you to the playoff promised land either, although he's been an adequate five who's been pressed into the four. The hitting is streaky, as the last two days demonstrates. Despite a lot of righthanded hitters, we're susceptible to soft-tossing portsiders who can throw offspeed pitches for strikes or that look like strikes.

I think that we can win more than we lose, but the starting pitching piece as it presently stands probably will hold the club back. However, brighter days are ahead, and i'm very confident that Luhnow and his merry band of brainiacs will solve this problem. 
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HudsonHawk

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #55 on: May 06, 2015, 09:29:25 am »
Last night's game is proof that the Astros, while improved in the bullpen and on the field, desperately need a few starting pitchers if we want to contend. As far as I'm concerned, Feldman is a pinball machine who can't be counted on. I don't know whether Wojo or Oberholtzer will ever amount to much, but I doubt that either is ready to take on a playoff run just yet. We need for some of the minor league phenoms to step up and contribute as early as this year, and that may be asking too much out of them too.

Basically, we've got Keuchel and McHugh and pray for rain. Deduno is an enigma and has been for his entire career--good arm but very inconsistent. Carmonadez is adequate, but he won't take you to the playoff promised land either, although he's been an adequate five who's been pressed into the four. The hitting is streaky, as the last two days demonstrates. Despite a lot of righthanded hitters, we're susceptible to soft-tossing portsiders who can throw offspeed pitches for strikes or that look like strikes.

I think that we can win more than we lose, but the starting pitching piece as it presently stands probably will hold the club back. However, brighter days are ahead, and i'm very confident that Luhnow and his merry band of brainiacs will solve this problem.


While I agree in general about pitching, they also managed a whopping four base runners last night, none after the 2nd inning.  They've pounded out seven hits and two runs in the last two games combined, while striking out 18 times.  Their 3-4-5 hitters are still not hitting their weight.  The last two losses is not all about pitching.
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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #56 on: May 06, 2015, 09:40:11 am »
When Feldman is good, he's usually very good - 7 IP and 1 or 2 ER type outings. When he's bad, he gets trashed. I still think he'll be good more often than he's bad. But I agree that it'd be great if they could find one more really solid #2-type somewhere.
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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #57 on: May 06, 2015, 10:10:05 am »
I'm not quite ready to think this team is going to make a playoff run this season.  So, I would hesitate to make a trade just yet.  I guess it is fun for those that like to trade to talk about the possibility of needing another arm for a change.
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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #58 on: May 06, 2015, 10:54:16 am »
After he lost the election to Ann Richards, some of his supporters urged Williams to try again next time around. His response was something along the lines of, "I may be an Aggie, but I'm not crazy."

Still, I didn't think it was fair to bring up his Aggie-ness in this context. Texas A & M did not have the monopoly on yahoo alumni bid-nessmen who had enough money (and not enough class) to go around saying crazy shit like Clay-tie did.

By no means, did they.

Aggy is overrepresented in dumbassery in all walks of life.  From the idiots that whoop during church to the Saw Em Off stickers.

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #59 on: May 06, 2015, 11:09:57 am »
Obsession noted. ;)

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #60 on: May 06, 2015, 11:16:07 am »
I'm not quite ready to think this team is going to make a playoff run this season.  So, I would hesitate to make a trade just yet.  I guess it is fun for those that like to trade to talk about the possibility of needing another arm for a change.

I like your thinking. I would hate to get off-track from "the plan" and trade some great prospects for a pitcher that may have a year left on his contract. Particularly if it would take Appel to make a deal.

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #61 on: May 06, 2015, 11:33:33 am »

While I agree in general about pitching, they also managed a whopping four base runners last night, none after the 2nd inning.  They've pounded out seven hits and two runs in the last two games combined, while striking out 18 times.  Their 3-4-5 hitters are still not hitting their weight.  The last two losses is not all about pitching.

Yessir, I saw the Happy one's post, and while I wouldn't mind stronger pitching, I thought having the heart of your batting order hitting at a cumulative .176 clip is probably a bit more concerning to me.  I mean hitting home runs and all is pretty nice but the success probably isn't sustainable while 3,4,5 are so far below Mendoza.

I think Budgirl has it right, the Astros aren't close enough to perhaps mortgage the future just to add another starting pitcher.

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Re: So....how good is this team, really?
« Reply #62 on: May 06, 2015, 01:12:13 pm »
Yessir, I saw the Happy one's post, and while I wouldn't mind stronger pitching, I thought having the heart of your batting order hitting at a cumulative .176 clip is probably a bit more concerning to me.  I mean hitting home runs and all is pretty nice but the success probably isn't sustainable while 3,4,5 are so far below Mendoza.

I think Budgirl has it right, the Astros aren't close enough to perhaps mortgage the future just to add another starting pitcher.

I didn't say that I wasn't concerned, because that would belie the truth. I am concerned about the consistency of the hitting as well as that the heart of our order is failing far more than not. The strikeouts bother me too, as well as the low batting average.
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