Aiken

[Aussie Astro]

No wonder we can't beat the Giants.

Where is a Great White when you need one?

[Reuben]

This one is fairly comprehensive and objective.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24223#commentMessage

It is interesting that they point out how the Astros goofed by not drafting a "backup" tough-sign HS kid in the later rounds; someone that they could've signed for, say $500k-$1m.

But I also think that they over-sell the amount of leverage Aiken and Close had. I don't think the deal fell through because the Astros had less leverage; I get the sense it fell through because Close got all butt-hurt and petulant and refused to look at Aiken's situation rationally. I think there's very, very little chance that he gets $5m next time he's drafted.

By the same token, this and most articles fail to really note that the Astros will likely be able to sign multiple Nix-type over-slot talents next year; so all they really "lost" asset-wise in the long term is the $374k of Nix's slot value.

The real head-scratcher for me still is that the Astros were willing to even offer $5m. Again, I can only guess that it had more to do with how much they liked Nix and Marshall rather than how much they felt Aiken was really worth. Or maybe it was an attempt to save face PR-wise (by Crane, perhaps); who knows.

[pots]

One thing the articles never point out is actually how much money the 5 million offer cost Aike.  He's only seeing about half that after agent fees and taxes.  So the offer for him was about 750k less. So 2.5 million versus 3.25 million. 

[Navin R Johnson]

Agent fees are typically 3%.  Here is a breakdown signing bonuses from TCU's head coach.

http://sportsblogs.star-telegram.com/mac-engel/2014/06/tcu-baseball-coach-shows-how-fast-the-guaranteed-of-the-mlb-draft-goes.html

[Navin R Johnson]

Scott Boars, voice of reason?   If they can't hammer down a way to do pre-draft physicals, this isn't a bad alternative to the status quo.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/hou/brady-aiken-astros-non-deal-raises-quesitions-calls-for-changes-to-draft?ymd=20140724&content_id=85743260&vkey=news_hou

While agent Scott Boras wasn't involved in the Aiken negotiations, he has proposed an interesting solution, one that would potentially make both sides more whole when a player fails a physical. If the team wishes to reduce the agreed-upon bonus, the player could elect free agency and sign for an amount no greater than the agreed-upon bonus or his assigned pick value, whichever is higher. Under this plan, the club not only would get a compensation choice in the next year's Draft, as it does now, but it also would be able to use the negotiated savings vs. the pick value in the current Draft.

In this year's scenario, Aiken could have opted for free agency and signed elsewhere for as much as $7,922,100, the allotted value for the No. 1 selection, while the Astros still would have gotten the No. 2 pick in the 2015 Draft as compensation. Because Houston also would have saved $1,422,100 vs. the pick value in its original deal with Aiken, it could have used that money to sign Nix.

That certainly is a MUCH better outcome for everyone.

[juliogotay]

Scott Boars, voice of reason?   If they can't hammer down a way to do pre-draft physicals, this isn't a bad alternative to the status quo.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/hou/brady-aiken-astros-non-deal-raises-quesitions-calls-for-changes-to-draft?ymd=20140724&content_id=85743260&vkey=news_hou

That certainly is a MUCH better outcome for everyone.

Including a better outcome for the agents of course. Not to be cynical of Boras. It is a better scenario.

[Navin R Johnson]

Finding a way to get to free agency is certainly good for Boras, but that is only if there is a medical issue.  I wonder what Aiken would've got on the open market.

On another note, I am tired of hearing media people talking about how Nix got "screwed" or was the real "victim" in all of this.  Total rubbish. 

[VirtualBob]

Finding a way to get to free agency is certainly good for Boras, but that is only if there is a medical issue.  I wonder what Aiken would've got on the open market.

On another note, I am tired of hearing media people talking about how Nix got "screwed" or was the real "victim" in all of this.  Total rubbish. 

Would Nix have become a free agent too in the Boras scenario?  At what point does the failure to sign kick in?  Or could the Astros have operated on the basis of the money saved from the original $5mm offer even before the end of the signing period?  It seems like if they have to wait until expiration, it is already too late to sign Nix.

[Navin R Johnson]

Would Nix have become a free agent too in the Boras scenario?  At what point does the failure to sign kick in?  Or could the Astros have operated on the basis of the money saved from the original $5mm offer even before the end of the signing period?  It seems like if they have to wait until expiration, it is already too late to sign Nix.

Nix wouldn't be a FA, the only way a guy becomes a FA is if something shows up in the post drat medicals that leads a team to reduce the offer significantly below slot.  Nix passed his physical.

But you bring up a good point.  I would assume you'd have to have a mechanism in place for both parties to sign off on the fact that no deal will be taking place, thus granted the player free agency.  At that point the Slot space for that pick minus the last offer becomes what the team has to use to sign other picks.

[HudsonHawk]

Agent fees are typically 3%.  Here is a breakdown signing bonuses from TCU's head coach.

http://sportsblogs.star-telegram.com/mac-engel/2014/06/tcu-baseball-coach-shows-how-fast-the-guaranteed-of-the-mlb-draft-goes.html

Agent fees on signing bonuses (and other unearned income) are typically more than the standard 3-4%.  They're usually around 8-10%.

[HudsonHawk]

Finding a way to get to free agency is certainly good for Boras, but that is only if there is a medical issue.  I wonder what Aiken would've got on the open market.

On another note, I am tired of hearing media people talking about how Nix got "screwed" or was the real "victim" in all of this.  Total rubbish. 

Nix was a victim of his own demands.  He saw his value higher than everyone else.  That's his perogative.

[Navin R Johnson]

Nix was a victim of his own demands.  He saw his value higher than everyone else.  That's his perogative.

Exactly correct.   But I have yet to see an article that mentions he was asking for 1st round money, while pretty much ever organization considered him worthy of a 3+ round draft pick/money.  Certainly he had every right too demand 1.5, but when you don't get what you are asking for that doesn't mean he was some poor kid caught up and screwed over by a flawed process.  Because he wasn't.

[HudsonHawk]

Exactly correct.   But I have yet to see an article that mentions he was asking for 1st round money, while pretty much ever organization considered him worthy of a 3+ round draft pick/money.  Certainly he had every right too demand 1.5, but when you don't get what you are asking for that doesn't mean he was some poor kid caught up and screwed over by a flawed process.  Because he wasn't.

The only sidenote is that the Astros were willing to give him the $1.5MM, if they had it available, which by default tied him to Aiken.  And if his "advisor" somehow tried to use him as leverage for Aiken, rather than negotiating them independently, then there's *some* sympathy.

[Bench]

The only sidenote is that the Astros were willing to give him the $1.5MM, if they had it available, which by default tied him to Aiken.  And if his "advisor" somehow tried to use him as leverage for Aiken, rather than negotiating them independently, then there's *some* sympathy.

In that case the grievance should be directed at Close for his conflict of interest.

[Ron Brand]

In that case the grievance should be directed at Close for his conflict of interest.

Yeah, but in the court of public opinion, Close wins because he knew he could get there first and start squealing in pain.

[Mr. Happy]

In that case the grievance should be directed at Close for his conflict of interest.

This is exactly right. Close shouldn't have been advising two draft picks for the same team whose futures were tied together or intertwined.

[VirtualBob]

Yeah, but in the court of public opinion, Close wins because he knew he could get there first and start squealing in pain.

I agree with Hap, but this is also correct.

[Mr. Happy]

Yeah, but in the court of public opinion, Close wins because he knew he could get there first and start squealing in pain.

I think that you're right, but I think that Close will come under scrutiny shortly.

[HudsonHawk]

In that case the grievance should be directed at Close for his conflict of interest.

If that's actually what happened, and I don't know that it was.  Just saying that's the only sympathy I can seem to muster for Nix.

[OregonStrosFan]

Yeah, but in the court of public opinion, Close wins because he knew he could get there first and start squealing in pain.

Speaking of Close, I wonder how the contract extension/negotiation discussions are going with his client Dexter Fowler... (I'm also curious how many other Astros / Astros MiLBers are currently represented by Close as well...).

[chuck]

I don't understand why everyone assumes that Close made the decision not to accept the team's offers. I would imagine that Aiken and his family are well equipped to make a rational decision on their own behalf.

Close works for Aiken, not the other way around.

[Navin R Johnson]

Speaking of Close, I wonder how the contract extension/negotiation discussions are going with his client Dexter Fowler... (I'm also curious how many other Astros / Astros MiLBers are currently represented by Close as well...).

Cosart is with Excel Sports Mgmt too.

[HudsonHawk]

I don't understand why everyone assumes that Close made the decision not to accept the team's offers. I would imagine that Aiken and his family are well equipped to make a rational decision on their own behalf.

Close works for Aiken, not the other way around.

The player ultimately makes the decision, but don't think for a second that the agent/advisor has no influence on the message the player gets from the team and that the player doesn't consider the agent's/advior's "advice".  Frankly, very few people are equipped to make a well informed decision on such a matter without input from others.  

[chuck]

The player ultimately makes the decision, but don't think for a second that the agent/advisor has no influence on the message the player gets from the team and that the player doesn't consider the agent's/advior's "advice".  Frankly, very few people are equipped to make a well informed decision on such a matter without input from others.  

The team was meant to be talking directly to the player rather than to the player through the agent.

Of course the team disabused the world of that notion mainly as far as I can tell just to be dicks.

[HudsonHawk]

The team was meant to be talking directly to the player rather than to the player through the agent.

Of course the team disabused the world of that notion mainly as far as I can tell just to be dicks.

That's simply not how it works, with the Astros or anyone else.

[chuck]

Close didn't somehow hypnotize Aiken. Aiken obviously was distressed enough by the team's fucked up tactics that he decided not to sign with the team. I'm sure he knows basic arithmetic. He made a rational choice not to be a member of the Astros organization and you necks need to heal your butthurt. In the wake of this colossal fuck up you guys want to blame Close, the union, Buster Olney, everyone but the party clearly responsible.

[Bench]

Close didn't somehow hypnotize Aiken. Aiken obviously was distressed enough by the team's fucked up tactics that he decided not to sign with the team. I'm sure he knows basic arithmetic. He made a rational choice not to be a member of the Astros organization and you necks need to heal your butthurt.

He's also a 17 year old kid relying on the advice of an experienced adviser.  That doesn't absolve him of responsibility for his decision, but you can't really ignore that context.

In the wake of this colossal fuck up you guys want to blame Close, the union, Buster Olney, everyone but the party clearly responsible.

The Astros shot themselves in the foot over less than they paid Jerome fucking Williams.  It boggles my mind that  anyone can justify that.

[subnuclear]

It's not about money, it is about access to elite players during their prime. They decided a 1-2 next year would be a better chance of being an elite player than Aiken would be.

[HudsonHawk]

Close didn't somehow hypnotize Aiken. Aiken obviously was distressed enough by the team's fucked up tactics that he decided not to sign with the team. I'm sure he knows basic arithmetic. He made a rational choice not to be a member of the Astros organization and you necks need to heal your butthurt. In the wake of this colossal fuck up you guys want to blame Close, the union, Buster Olney, everyone but the party clearly responsible.

This is like arguing that people don't need attorneys, anyone can answer the prosecutor's questions.  The decision is not simple arithmetic.  I'm certain Aiken had questions such as:

What is my status if I turn down the offer?
Can the Astros draft me again?
Can I be a free agent?  If so, what's my market value?
Where do you think I'd get drafted next year?  What's the bonus pool look like?
Does talking to you affect my ability to go to UCLA?  If so, what are my other option?
What is the Astros' position? 
Is their position consistent with what other teams would do?
What has been your experience with Jeff Luhnow/Jim Crane?  Can I trust them?
How much leverage do we have?  Do they have?

The decison was Aiken's, but it wasn't made in a vacuum.

[HudsonHawk]

The Astros shot themselves in the foot over less than they paid Jerome fucking Williams.  It boggles my mind that  anyone can justify that.

Or perhaps they dodged a Matt Harrington sized bullet.  It boggles my mind how anyone can ignore that.

[VirtualBob]

Or perhaps they dodged a Matt Harrington sized bullet.  It boggles my mind how anyone can ignore that.

Exactly.

[Bench]

Or perhaps they dodged a Matt Harrington sized bullet.  It boggles my mind how anyone can ignore that.

I don't see the equivalence.  Aiken was signing below slot in order for the Astros to have extra money to sign Nix as well.  Harrington continually demanded that he be paid more than anyone else who had been drafted in his respective draft spot.  Also, what was dodged by any of the teams that failed to sign Harrington?  A prospect that didn't work out?  That's par for the course.  Here, the Astros missed out on multiple prospects.

[Bench]

Rosenthal tweets that the union has filed a grievance against the Astros alleging team "tried to manipulate signings of Aiken, etc."

[HudsonHawk]

Also, what was dodged by any of the teams that failed to sign Harrington? 

A high school player of the year, first round pick who never could get out professional hitters.

[Mr. Happy]

He's also a 17 year old kid relying on the advice of an experienced adviser.  That doesn't absolve him of responsibility for his decision, but you can't really ignore that context.

The Astros shot themselves in the foot over less than they paid Jerome fucking Williams.  It boggles my mind that  anyone can justify that.

This is fucking idiotic.

[Bench]

A high school player of the year, first round pick who never could get out professional hitters.

A younger version of Mark Appel?

[HudsonHawk]

A younger version of Mark Appel?

Appel was drafted as a college senior, not a high schooler.  But, if it turns out Appel can never get out professional hitters and never reaches the Majors, then yes, it will be fair to say the Astros got nothing in return for selecting him.  And the way I see it, that's something they want to avoid.

[jbm]

Rosenthal tweets that the union has filed a grievance against the Astros alleging team "tried to manipulate signings of Aiken, etc."

I'm seriously trying to envision the significance of this "allegation."  Of course they did. 

If getting more out of your money in hand is manipulation, every important signing involves manipulation.

[astrosfan76]

Has anyone read/heard if Nix still wants to sign? To pull a phrase from an article referenced in this thread, there's a non-zero chance that Nix has moved on. If that's the case, what is the union trying to win? What is the outcome that they are hoping for? Someone to agree with them that the Astros were mean and ruined the dreams of the kids involved? I disagree, but then what?

[HudsonHawk]

Has anyone read/heard if Nix still wants to sign? To pull a phrase from an article referenced in this thread, there's a non-zero chance that Nix has moved on. If that's the case, what is the union trying to win? What is the outcome that they are hoping for? Someone to agree with them that the Astros were mean and ruined the dreams of the kids involved? I disagree, but then what?

Nix can't sign. The deadline to do so has passed. The union wants them to be free agents instead of going back into the draft system.

[Reuben]

I don't see the equivalence.  Aiken was signing below slot in order for the Astros to have extra money to sign Nix as well.  Harrington continually demanded that he be paid more than anyone else who had been drafted in his respective draft spot.  Also, what was dodged by any of the teams that failed to sign Harrington?  A prospect that didn't work out?  That's par for the course.  Here, the Astros missed out on multiple prospects.

Their signing of multiple (in this case, 2) prospects was delayed for a year. That sucks, but it's not the massive, foot-shooting set-back that many seem to believe. They will almost certainly still get the same number of good prospects, and probably most important, the top one will be one they feel has a better chance at being a core player for the team than post-MRI Aiken.

[Mr. Happy]

Nix can't sign. The deadline to do so has passed. The union wants them to be free agents instead of going back into the draft system.

This is correct. The union hates the draft.

[das]

Nix can't sign. The deadline to do so has passed. The union wants them to be free agents instead of going back into the draft system.

Then they should build a time machine, go back in time and undo the agreement they negotiated three years ago and insert the Boras clause.

Stupid babies.

[astrosfan76]

Nix can't sign. The deadline to do so has passed. The union wants them to be free agents instead of going back into the draft system.

There's been talk of them trying to make Aiken a free agent, but I haven't seen anything alluding to Nix becoming one. If you have something I'd love to read it. As for Nix, there's still talk today that the union could argue that the verbal agreement was binding and that the Astros should honor that agreement.

Nix, who was healthy and passed his physical, lost out on a chance to start his career through seemingly no fault of his own.

The union could contend that Nix's agreement with the Astros, which the Chronicle was told by a person familiar with the negotiations was verbal, should be honored.

Whether, or not, the union has any grounds with that argument is irrelevant.

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/astros/article/Union-files-grievance-over-Astros-handling-of-5645825.php

[jbm]

Seems to me that the union is just posturing, throwing a bone to the non-union boys they've been criticized for not representing.  Their argument is weak, and I doubt they give a shit about Aiken or Nix, but it provides some ammo they can use for things they actually care about. 

[Fredia]

that does not seem fair

[Bench]

As for Nix, there's still talk today that the union could argue that the verbal agreement was binding and that the Astros should honor that agreement.

And if that happens, then the Astros would lose two picks next year?

[astrosfan76]

And if that happens, then the Astros would lose two picks next year?

Unless some concession was made as a compromise.  But, I don't see how that could happen without opening a big can of worms.  The only way I could see that playing out would be if the two sides allowed it, but as part of broader discussions and restructuring of the rules.  But, with the CBA being locked in for a couple more years, I don't see how they could work that out.

[HudsonHawk]

There's been talk of them trying to make Aiken a free agent, but I haven't seen anything alluding to Nix becoming one. If you have something I'd love to read it. As for Nix, there's still talk today that the union could argue that the verbal agreement was binding and that the Astros should honor that agreement.

First, I posted what I had. You apparently read it. Remember, not all of us get our information from Buster Olney tweets and Wikipedia. Secondly, again...the deadline to sign Nix has passed.  The agreement was contingent, and Nix knew that.

[Nate Colbert]

Not sure you can believe everything in this article (h/t Evan Drellich), but according to it after turning down an initial offer of $1.1MM, Marshall heard nothing more from the Astros until 2 weeks before the signing deadline. However, the Astros never bumped up their offer. Thus even if they had been able to reach agreement with Aiken on deadline day unlike with Nix they had no agreement in place with Marshall.

But again this all assumes that the article is both complete and accurate.

[HudsonHawk]

Not sure you can believe everything in this article (h/t Evan Drellich), but according to it after turning down an initial offer of $1.1MM, Marshall heard nothing more from the Astros until 2 weeks before the signing deadline. However, the Astros never bumped up their offer. Thus even if they had been able to reach agreement with Aiken on deadline day unlike with Nix they had no agreement in place with Marshall.

But again this all assumes that the article is both complete and accurate.

I think it's pretty well understood that they were never serious players for Marshall. He simply wanted WAY too much.

[kevwun]

Yeah, Marshall was the backup if they couldn't sign Nix which they were pretty confident they could do before the draft.  The only way they could have gotten both is if Aiken would have signed for 5 million or below which wasn't the plan up until his physical.

[kevwun]

What the heck does this mean?

Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd  ·  55m

Interesting developments afoot in the Aiken/Nix situation. Writing up something longer now.

    Replied to 0 times

Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd  ·  1h

MLB's discretion situation RT @FlemmingMatthew I thought that they could not sign him after July 15. Does the grievance change things?
View conversation

    Replied to 0 times

Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd  ·  1h

The expectation from those close to the negotiation is that Brady Aiken will end up making a deal with the Astros around the Nix hearing.

https://twitter.com/kileymcd

[Bench]

What the heck does this mean?

Astros Could Still Reach Deal With Brady Aiken

[jbm]

Save face?  Fuck whoever doesn't like their face.

Probably more like arm twisting by FYB and his minions.

[kevwun]

Crane has since quashed the rumor through Berman.  Doesn't seem likely that he would go through Berman if it was a bs denial.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

Crane has since quashed the rumor through Berman.  Doesn't seem likely that he would go through Berman if it was a bs denial.

I wonder if Aiken's camp is floating a trial balloon to see if the Astros are still interested.

[kevwun]

That could very well be.  They might have realized that they were taking a big gamble on being drafted high enough again to get the same amount of money after cooling off.

[Jacksonian]

Crane has since quashed the rumor through Berman.  Doesn't seem likely that he would go through Berman if it was a bs denial.

I don't read that tweet as quashed at all.

[Bench]

I don't read that tweet as quashed at all.

What would he say if he wanted to quash it?

[Jacksonian]

What would he say if he wanted to quash it?

"Brady Aiken will not be a member of the Houston Astros organization until at least the next draft, if ever."

I read "There's nothing 2report,nothing going on there" as much a "No comment" as anything.

[kevwun]

Nothing going on there is pretty clear language.  Not much wiggle room.  Berman just about always gets the story right.  I don't think he would willingly report false info and I don't think the Astros would burn the most reliable Houston reporter like that.

[rpntex]

I wonder if Aiken's camp is floating a trial balloon to see if the Astros are still interested.

IIRC, Berman's tweet read "There's nothing 2report, nothing going on there". 

That's not necessarily "quashed".  It could mean what it says literally.  There was no denial that talks may be ongoing, and it's been reported than Crane met with Casey Close personally in New York last week.

[Bench]

There was no denial that talks may be ongoing....

"Nothing going on there."

It's just the order of the words.

[Reuben]

Callis tweet:

Zero. Don't see how MLB or MLBPA would permit that. @randyamanJD: Heard anything supporting recent rumblings @astros could still sign Aiken?

[astrosfan76]

Drellich with an article today, hitting on a few topics with Luhnow:

1) Luhnow would like to see the club hit 70 wins, which would require the club going 15-16 the rest of the way.
2) Luhnow had no comment on the AAA PDC situation
3) "Luhnow also declined comment when asked for an update on Brady Aiken, the Astros’ unsigned No. 1 overall draft pick."
4) Luhnow also declined comment when asked if the data breach investigation was still active, noting only that the club's internal systems are now secure.  

Maybe Luhnow just wasn't in a chatty mood.  But, why not kill the Aiken rumors with something like "We were unable to sign him by the July deadline, per MLB rules we are no longer able to sign him."  Maybe there is nothing there, but it would be pretty easy for him to give something more substantive than "no comment" on the situation.  

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2014/08/25/luhnow-says-team-wont-have-comment-on-leaks-investigation/#22102101=0

[Ron Brand]

Maybe he's cautious that anything he says might come up in a complaint so he's refusing to address the whole situation right now.

[astrosfan76]

Maybe he's cautious that anything he says might come up in a complaint so he's refusing to address the whole situation right now.

He had plenty to say a month ago, though.

[subnuclear]

He might be pissed at the Chron, too.

[chuck]

Maybe he shouldn't be giving interviews if he has nothing to say.

[HudsonHawk]

Maybe he shouldn't be giving interviews if he has nothing to say.

That would probably be easier if people weren't running him down asking questions.

[MusicMan]

Maybe he shouldn't be giving interviews if he has nothing to say.

He can be courteous to Drellich, and simply no comment the questions he can't answer, or he can put up with JdJO making shit up.

Which would you do?

[juliogotay]

The Astros need the Chronicle too. Not as much as in years past but it is still a major outlet for them getting their word out. Even if it means not getting their word out.

[Reuben]

He had plenty to say a month ago, though.

I think you're right. There's been too much smoke emerging about an Aiken re-do for there not to be at least a little fire. Whether it actually leads to a deal is another matter - seems like a bad precedent for the Commissioner's Office to set.

[MusicMan]

I think you're right. There's been too much smoke emerging about an Aiken re-do for there not to be at least a little fire. Whether it actually leads to a deal is another matter - seems like a bad precedent for the Commissioner's Office to set.

They may be worried that Nix winning the grievance would set a worse precedent - recognizing verbal offers.

[MusicMan]

Selig gives credence to the rumors: "moving toward a hopeful solution."

[pots]

Selig gives credence to the rumors: "moving toward a hopeful solution."

Yeah good luck with that, only way the Stros win is if they get all 3.  Don't think Aiken and Nix without Marshall is better than #2 next year. 

[juliogotay]

Yeah good luck with that, only way the Stros win is if they get all 3.  Don't think Aiken and Nix without Marshall is better than #2 next year. 

I  feel the same way just because of the uncertainties of the ligament.

[jbm]

Selig gives credence to the rumors: "moving toward a hopeful solution."

If that prick is now involved, bad things are in store. 

[Duman]

Here is video of Bud saying that while trying not to say anything.

[David in Jackson]

The Astros and Aiken couldn't reach an agreement on money by the deadline due to the results of Aiken's physical.  As a result, the Astros get the overall #2 in pick in the draft next year.

I'll admit I don't understand everything about the process, but I don't see what's left to be done and what Selig (Brewers to NL; Astros to AL) has to do with anything at this stage.  Can someone help me?

[Duman]

Apparently the other 29 clubs have signed off on a clause that allows continued negotiations.  However, the Aikens reported to be requiring a sign & trade deal to be worked out before they sign anything. Which muddy's the waters even more. 

[Navin R Johnson]

I have no idea how they can just change the rules on the fly, but it is clear that something is going on.

School starts soon, once Aiken goes to class he is ineligible to sign too unless they are throwing that out the window too.

[juliogotay]

Apparently the other 29 clubs have signed off on a clause that allows continued negotiations.  However, the Aikens reported to be requiring a sign & trade deal to be worked out before they sign anything. Which muddy's the waters even more. 

What? The Astros would sign Aiken and be required to trade him? And give up the #2 pick in the draft next year for a pitcher that the whole world knows has a pitching arm that has dynamite attached to it? Is this FYB's farewell anal rape of the Houston franchise?

[jbm]

Hard to see why the Astros would want any part of this.  So, seems like they would have to be coerced into it.  What leverage does that piece of shit have on them?  Aren't the grievances decided by an independent party?  And finally, and most baffling, who the fuck adds an addition to their stadium to honor Selig?  Seriously.

[NeilT]

http://lotr.wikia.com/wiki/Eye_of_Sauron

[juliogotay]

Hard to see why the Astros would want any part of this.  So, seems like they would have to be coerced into it.  What leverage does that piece of shit have on them?  Aren't the grievances decided by an independent party?  And finally, and most baffling, who the fuck adds an addition to their stadium to honor Selig?  Seriously.

Tribute for the Padres not having to go to the junior circuit?

[MusicMan]

I have no idea how they can just change the rules on the fly,

Tied ASG.
You have to play your home games in Milwaukee.
You can't open your roof.

You really don't understand that Bud makes up rules on the fly?

[BudGirl]

Tied ASG.
You have to play your home games in Milwaukee.
You can't open your roof.

You really don't understand that Bud makes up rules on the fly?

You must open your roof.

[Fynn]

Per Jon Heyman, Selig was talking about Nix and not Aiken, which makes sense since Nix was the one who filed the grievance.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24682993/astros-working-on-a-resolution-with-nix-not-aiken-it-turns-out

[juliogotay]

Per Jon Heyman, Selig was talking about Nix and not Aiken, which makes sense since Nix was the one who filed the grievance.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24682993/astros-working-on-a-resolution-with-nix-not-aiken-it-turns-out

I'd love to see a deal with Nix.

[NeilT]

I'd love to see a deal with Nix.

Don't tell Selig that.

[juliogotay]

Don't tell Selig that.

Don't worry. He'll think I mean Aiken.

[austro]

If that prick is now involved, bad things are in store. 

Somehow, Milwaukee will wind up with our #2 pick.

[Reuben]

I'd love to see a deal with Nix.

I don't see how they could be allowed to sign Nix and not forfeit their next two 1st-round picks, as the rules state. If anything, I figure maybe he'll be awarded a cash settlement.

[juliogotay]

I don't see how they could be allowed to sign Nix and not forfeit their next two 1st-round picks, as the rules state. If anything, I figure maybe he'll be awarded a cash settlement.

I'm taking into account that there must be some special dispensation or the Astros wouldn't even be at the table.

[pots]

Apparently the other 29 clubs have signed off on a clause that allows continued negotiations.  However, the Aikens reported to be requiring a sign & trade deal to be worked out before they sign anything. Which muddy's the waters even more.  

No problem.  As long as the team they trade with isn't allowed a physical before agreeing to a trade, and they are allowed a period to negotiate with all unsigned draftees.  

[astrosfan76]

Per Jon Heyman, Selig was talking about Nix and not Aiken, which makes sense since Nix was the one who filed the grievance.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24682993/astros-working-on-a-resolution-with-nix-not-aiken-it-turns-out

John Manuel wrote this the day the story broke:

When Jenson asked the commissioner if Aiken’s negotiations were allowed to continue past the July 18 deadline, the commissioner replied, “We’re working on that right now. There are a lot of things in movement there, so it would be inappropriate for me to comment. But I would say we are working toward a hopeful solution.”

Pressed to confirm whether Aiken and the Astros would be allowed to negotiate on a contract even though the July 18 signing deadline had passed, Selig replied, “I’d rather not get into any detail right now, but I want to repeat, we are working towards a solution.”

Selig also confirmed that Aiken has not filed a grievance in the case, answering a question about whether or not a grievance had been filed by saying, “Not yet. No, and hopefully there won’t be.”

This leaves a few possibilities:

1) Manuel is making this up.
2) Selig is really mixed up and is completely wrong in everything he said.
3) Selig mixed up the names, but is saying that Nix never filed a grievance.
4) A deal with Aiken is being worked on in some capacity.

Heyman says in his article that Nix did file a grievance.  Most everyone agrees that there was one filed by Nix.  So, unless #1 is true, which I have a hard time believing that Manuel would make up quotes, then we are narrowing it down to #2 or #4.  I have an easier time believing #4 than #2.  As much as I have loathed many of his decisions, I don't think he's senile.  He can't have mixed up the names and be right about a grievance. 

What others have said about a possible sign-and-trade worries me, though.  MLB said all throughout the process that the Astros were doing nothing wrong, but I don't like where this could be going.  It's hard to imagine a scenario with a sign-and-trade where the Astros (who were operating within the rules, according to MLB) won't come out worse than they are right now.  The #2 pick is a decent consolation prize; I don't see them keeping that plus get a middling return for Aiken. 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/selig-admits-aiken-case-isnt-closed/

[Reuben]

Manuel wasn't saying he talked to Selig himself; he was just quoting the video of the SD reporter questioning him. Watching that, it's possible that he just didn't hear her clearly and/or was bungling players together in his mind, but it's a stretch.

[Nate Colbert]

Aaron Fitt ‏(@aaronfitt) of BA tweeted:

Something to keep in mind: UCLA doesn't start class until Oct. 2. So don't close the door on possibility that Jacob Nix could wind up there.

[HudsonHawk]

Aaron Fitt ‏(@aaronfitt) of BA tweeted:

I don't think anyone has closed the door on him going there.  In fact it's expected. 

[Reuben]

I don't think anyone has closed the door on him going there.  In fact it's expected. 

Well there's certainly been a lot of speculation that both he and Aiken would go to a JuCo so they could be eligible for next year's draft; not to mention that the NCAA might declare them ineligible to play for UCLA.

[jbm]

Seems like a late date to start school.  Lazy fucking Californians.

[HudsonHawk]

Well there's certainly been a lot of speculation that both he and Aiken would go to a JuCo so they could be eligible for next year's draft; not to mention that the NCAA might declare them ineligible to play for UCLA.

What would be the reason for declaring him ineligible?

[HudsonHawk]

Seems like a late date to start school.  Lazy fucking Californians.

They're on a quarter system, not semester. 

[jbm]

What would be the reason for declaring him ineligible?

I thought it was because Close was acting as an agent.

[HudsonHawk]

I thought it was because Close was acting as an agent.

Advisor.

Tomato - tomahto

[jbm]

You're probably correct, but IIRC, there was something about him calling Luhnow or something. At least there was speculation that he crossed the line.

[HudsonHawk]

Could be.  I don't know if he crossed the line or not...it's pretty blurry. 

[BizidyDizidy]

I thought the idea was that Luhnow may have caused him problems by describing his interaction with Close and the role Close played.

[das]

You're probably correct, but IIRC, there was something about him calling Luhnow or something. At least there was speculation that he crossed the line.

It would be pretty easy to wiggle out of that. Team Aiken would simply need to say that Close acted on his own and that, as an advisor, he had no authority to negotiate on their behalf.

[Mr. Happy]

Could be.  I don't know if he crossed the line or not...it's pretty blurry. 

Based upon what Luhnow and Close both said, I think that Close crossed the line.

[mrpink]

Could be.  I don't know if he crossed the line or not...it's pretty blurry. 

From the Weztler case...

NCAA rules allow a baseball student-athlete to receive advice from a lawyer or agent regarding a proposed professional sports contract. However, if the student-athlete is considering returning to an NCAA school, that advisor may not negotiate on behalf of a student-athlete or be present during discussions of a contract offer, including phone calls, email or in-person conversations. Along with the school, a student-athlete is responsible for maintaining his eligibility.

Of course, Wetzler was already attending Oregon so that may be a different situation.  If not, I agree with Happy that Close crossed the line.

[HudsonHawk]

From the Weztler case...

Of course, Wetzler was already attending Oregon so that may be a different situation.  If not, I agree with Happy that Close crossed the line.

Do we know Close negotiated or was present during negotiations?  Or is he simply commenting on what the Astros offered? 

[BizidyDizidy]

Not really

http://deadspin.com/brady-aikens-college-eligibility-might-be-in-jeopardy-1608426003

[ValpoCory]

I noticed in one of the latest 2015 MLB Mock Drafts that they have Brady Aiken going #4 to Texas.  

That site is implying Aiken will not go to a 4 year school.  Fangraphs makes the same assumption:  

Some housekeeping notes to clarify and expound on the rankings:

- Brady Aiken still hasn’t signed and nothing concrete has been announced to that end, so he’s in the 2015 class until further notice. Like Aiken, Phil Bickford’s school is unknown at the moment, but both are expected to go to junior colleges out west.

...

he’s expected to enroll at Yavapai JC in Arizona.

It has the Astros going:
2. Brendan Rodgers, SS  -- School: Lake Mary HS (FLA)
5. Daz Cameron, OF -- School: Eagle Landing HS (GA)  -- Mike Cameron's son

[Reuben]

What's really bizarre/hilarious about that mock is it has only 2 HS kids in the top 7... and the Astros taking both of them. I have to think they'd really like at least one college player with those first two picks.