2014 ZiPS Projections

[subnuclear]

Dan Szymborski published his fantasy baseball projections for next year (hitting/fielding might be near ok, pitching will be putrid according to Dan's computer). In any case, he mentions in passing the player's union may have leaned on Crane to spend some money which got Feldman a nice pay day. Has anyone else read that?

[pots]

The guy said:

mostly as a result, probably,

Which is mostly, likely, pretty much translated to the next statement will be my wild ass speculation.


ETA. 
It more makes sense that the 2014 payroll has more flexibility in it than the 2016 payroll.  Plus they may have no need for Feldman in 2016, so a frontloaded contract would make him a more valuable trade piece in say July 2015 or the 2015-16 offseason.

[pots]

(pitching will be putrid according to Dan's computer).

The predicted stats are bad — mostly as a result, probably, because all Dan's computer did was take historical minor league stats and assume the mlb stats would be worse then them by a particular percentage.  With AA stats being reduced more than AAA stats.

[subnuclear]

The predicted stats are bad — mostly as a result, probably, because all Dan's computer did was take historical minor league stats and assume the mlb stats would be worse then them by a particular percentage.  With AA stats being reduced more than AAA stats.

Do you have access to the ZiPS code? In any case, that's not a crazy assumption if you are going to make an assumption.

[pots]

Do you have access to the ZiPS code? In any case, that's not a crazy assumption if you are going to make an assumption.

From looking at Cosart's and Oberholtzer's stat history and their expected 2014 numbers it seems mostly as a result, probably that just plain result history and not trending are being caclulated.  If a player shows improvement after repeating the same level or even improvement as the move up through the minor league levels then the weighting for the earlier years should be greatly reduced as the player has shown signs of development.  I see no signs from the predicted 2014 results that they made any effort to do something complex like this.

[Reuben]

They also fail to take into account which of these guys are in the best shape of their lives and feeling great.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

They also fail to take into account which of these guys are in the best shape of their lives and feeling great.

Not to mention throwing harder than ever, and has been working on a curve/change/sinker all winter.

[pots]

Just to note, I'm not advocating the use of minor league statistics to predict major league statistics.  I'm just arguing that the model Dan's computer seems to have is far to simplistic to provide any useful infomation.  I believe the Stros staff will be at least average this year with the potential to be real strong. 

[Bench]

Not to mention throwing harder than ever, and has been working on a curve/change/sinker all winter.

Or finally getting rid of a diseased, useless organ which possibly could have been inhibiting development. 

[Reuben]

Or finally getting rid of a diseased, useless organ which possibly could have been inhibiting development. 

Ouch. Having had an appendectomy, I seriously doubt he'll be throwing a bullpen on Feb. 15. Or at least I doubt it'd be a good idea.

[austro]

Ouch. Having had an appendectomy, I seriously doubt he'll be throwing a bullpen on Feb. 15. Or at least I doubt it'd be a good idea.

When did you have your appendectomy? Apparently they now do a laproscopic procedure through the belly-button, and recovery is pretty damn fast.

[Reuben]

When did you have your appendectomy? Apparently they now do a laproscopic procedure through the belly-button, and recovery is pretty damn fast.

In 2006. And it was in a hospital in East London, which Limey may concede might not have been quite up-to-date on the latest technology. Or the latest techniques, such as properly re-inserting a patient's IV in the middle of the night, so that he doesn't wake up a few hours later to find his own blood soaking half his bed.

I went to Spain just over a week after the operation, and I kept having to force myself to walk slow, which was annoying because I was there solely for sightseeing, which meant lots and lots of walking. I can't imagine trying to deliver a pitch at 90+ MPH just two weeks after the operation, but as you imply, perhaps times have changed.

[Ty in Tampa]

A friend of mine just had appendectomy 2 weeks ago and while he is not a big league pitcher, he was back into work 2 days later and now says he only feels slight pain twinges every now and then.