Spring will be here very soon, and like last year, I thought I would take a stab at predicting who will end up where when the national anthem sounds for real. I depend completely on secondary sources for this … no insider information. This post deals with outfielders.
As far as I can tell, there are 36 players under Astros control that can be seen primarily as outfielders (not counting guys ike Ruben Sosa, Mike Kvasnicka, Kike Hernandez and Telvin Nash that were dealt with elsewhere). Given the sometimes-smaller roster limits at lower levels, there are probably only 20-25 full-season roster slots.
I see four guys (JD Martinez, Fernando Martinez, Jimmy Paredes and Justin Maxwell) as potential starters in Houston with the odd man out getting plenty of playing time as well. Brandon Barnes is the most likely 5th outfielder, though Trevor Crowe or even Rick Ankiel could play himself in during the spring.
AAA will be crowded, and as noted elsewhere, one of the odds-on favorites in the outfield (Marc Krauss) may end up filling in for Singleton at 1B early in the season. Austin Wates and Robbie Grossman will probably be starters, and one of Crowe and Ankiel will probably make the team in a “AAAA emergency” role. The last spot will probably go to Jake Goebbert or Che-Hsuan Lin with the other one being released.
George Springer and Domingo Santana will probably start in CF & RF at Corpus Christie, while newcomer Michael Burgess and holdovers Adam Bailey and Drew Muren seem the most likely candidates to join them. Grant Hogue may also have a shot, but at 26 he is also probably on the chopping block if he does not show real progress in the spring.
Lancaster is beginning to be crowded with some real prospects. I expect Andrew Aplin to return to CF (after his late-season promotion from Tri-City), flanked by Preston Tucker and (probably) Brandon Meredith (who seemed to really put it together last year). Justin Gominsky, Chris Epps and Jordan Scott will probably compete for the final 1-2 positions with the other(s) headed to Quad Cities.
Teoscar Hernandez seems like the strongest candidate to join the losers of the Lancaster competition in the Quad Cities outfield, but (in decreasing order of probability) Dan Gulbransen, Terrell Joyce, Mark Wik and possibly Ariel Ovando should also be in the mix. That still leaves some pretty strong talent in extended ST destined for Tri City or Greeneville.
Note: I tried to rush Ovando last year, which probably means I have erred on the other side this year. We’ll see.
age name 2012 2013
25 JDMartinez Hou/OKC Houston – LF
29 JMaxwell Houston Houston – CF
24 JParedes Hou/OKC Houston – RF/CF
24 FMartinez Hou/OKC Houston – RF/LF
26 BBarnes Hou/OKC Houston (?)
29 TCrowe FA Hou? OKC? Cut?
33 RAnkiel FA OKC? Cut? Hou??
23 RGrossman OKC Oklahoma City – RF
25 MKrauss CC/OKC Oklahoma City – LF/1B
24 AWates Corpus Christi Oklahoma City – CF/LF
26 JGoebbert OKC Oklahoma City
24 CLin FA Oklahoma City? Cut?
23 GSpringer CC/OKC Corpus Christi – CF
20 DSantana Lancaster Corpus Christi – RF
24 ABailey Lan/CC Corpus Christi – LF?
24 MBurgess <Cubs – AA> Corpus Christi – LF?
24 DMuren Lex/Lan CC? Lan?
26 GHogue Lancaster CC? Lan? Cut?
22 AAplin TC/Lan Lancaster – CF
23 BMeredith Lexington Lancaster – LF
22 PTucker Tri City Lancaster – RF
23 JGominsky Lex/TC Lancaster
24 CEpps Lex/Lan Lan? QC – LF?
21 JScott Lexington QC – LF? Lan?
20 THernandez GCL/Lex Quad Cities – CF
22 DGulbransen Tri City Quad Cities – LF?
20 TJoyce Greeneville Quad Cities – RF?
20 MWik Greeneville Quad Cities – LF? (SS)
21 JMonzon Greeneville SS
19 AOvando Greeneville SS
21 DToney Greeneville SS
20 WGonzalez GCL SS
18 BPhillips GCL SS
21 EGomez GCL SS
21 LDeLaRosa GCL SS
20 YMarte GCL SS
