A Tale of Two Youngsters

[Noe]

The Houston Astros rely on veterans to keep pushing this team into contention until they can restock, and in some eyes, rebuild the farm system.  Owner Drayton McLane often becomes the butt of many a joke and also fan and media assessments of greed and lack of interest in his own team's success because he continues to parlay the same tired cliche of "being a champion today" while fielding what some consider an inferior team because of over the hill veteran presence.  In some cases, it is lightning in a bottle approach with fringe veterans, such as Ivan Rodriquez, Geoff Blum, Russ Ortiz and others.  Astros fans want more, they want exciting kids coming up from the farm and in their prime veterans either plucked off the free agent A-list or homegrown.  And on and on the dance goes between McLane, media and fans.

In between that silly dance, others just go about the business of trying to win baseball games by tweaking here, adjusting there, and making sound decisions where they need to be made and yes, even crossing some fingers and maybe toes hoping one or two or three veterans have career or near career years to make it happen.  It almost happened last year and that of course caused many a head of a pundit in the media to explode.  Also some fans and probably a few insiders in the House of Drayton (baseball side of the house of course).  These things, as many are apt to point out, don't happen in a regular basis, but yet somehow they do around these part.  As Craig Biggio says "We're the Houston Astros, we don't do things like everyone else".  Right he is.

Or is he?

I think he's right by and large, relying on veterans to perform at peak is often the Angelos Fallacy and a team can look awfully slow and over matched in such cases.  Yet in Houston it seems to work.  Why is that?  Well, you can't always get away with a pure veteran squad, you do need youngsters at some level to provide support for the old men on the team.  All one has to do is follow the line of thinking from the media in terms of the Houston farm system and that is where pronouncements of "weak" or "74 wins if lucky" come into play.  Yet, again, that doesn't seem to ever play out.  Is it because Houston knows how to eye a veteran better than any one else in the league and say to itself "This guy is going to help us!"  I mean, who would really think Russ Ortiz when thinking of a starter for their team?  I think Houston does do a good job in this area, but not overly better than anyone else so as to have it make a huge difference.  So what gives?

I submit to you that Houston doesn't get the benefit of the doubt for their current crop of youngsters.  There, I said it, out loud even.  I'm kind of sorta going against the crowd or urban myth that Houston has *no* youngsters to speak of.  No, that Hunter Pence is a mirage, so is Michael Bourn and Wesley Wright and don't even bring up Felipe Paulino.  Way too much negative things are said about these four that would lead one to believe they're not end all, be all solutions for the team and will not really factor in to whether this is a winning team or not.  So cast your eyes back at the creaky bones of the veterans and say to yourself "Is this a winning team?" I say wait just a gol-durn minute here... don't take your eyes off Pence, Bourn, Wright and Paulino so fast.  In fact, cast your eyes squarely on Pence and Bourn if you will and think for a minute if these two guys are perhaps the key for a winning team in Houston.  I submit they are because I do not believe Berkman will struggle all year long and Lee is already putting up good middle of the lineup numbers to say he's still one of the best run producers in the league.  The key is what guys in front of Berkman and Lee and what guys behind the same will do.  Take a look, in front of Berkman and Lee sits Michael Bourn and right behind them is Pence either right behind them or one off from them.

These two youngsters hold the key to a winning team for Houston as much as anyone else.  If they deliver solid efforts, and right now they both are, this is a winning team.  Pitching and defense wins championship for sure, but to say at minimum "winning team" you must have a solidly built team offense and defense.  Bourn provides defense as exceptional as it can be done in center and Hunter while a left fielder at heart, has held his own in right.  Now that both Pence and Bourn are being used correctly by the confused and dazed manager that is Cooper, the results are starting to show.  Berkman and Lee provide an excellent buffer for both styles of baseball presented by Bourn and Pence.  Gripit'nRipit behind Berkman and Lee, get on base, turn on a fastball inside, go the other way and use your speed on outside pitches in front of Berkman and Lee.  This is a good sign and one I hope Cooper is noticing.  It's working, don't tinker Coop.  Leave it alone and ride the good tide these youngsters, yes... youngsters are providing.

When you get production from youngsters, you can't help but stand up and notice and especially if you can thumb your nose at all the noise emanating from the usual "McLane is cheap" and "our farm system stinks" crowd.  They're missing a good thing happening right before their very own eyes.

[Andyzipp]

Everyone has to be an all-star or they're worthless.

[strosrays]

The Houston Astros rely on veterans to keep pushing this team into contention until they can restock, and in some eyes, rebuild the farm system.  Owner Drayton McLane often becomes the butt of many a joke and also fan and media assessments of greed and lack of interest in his own team's success because he continues to parlay the same tired cliche of "being a champion today" while fielding what some consider an inferior team because of over the hill veteran presence.

My main problem with McLane is with his choices in the area of personal footwear.  But I digest.

. . . you can't always get away with a pure veteran squad, you do need youngsters at some level to provide support for the old men on the team.  All one has to do is follow the line of thinking from the media in terms of the Houston farm system and that is where pronouncements of "weak" or "74 wins if lucky" come into play.  Yet, again, that doesn't seem to ever play out. . . I submit to you that Houston doesn't get the benefit of the doubt for their current crop of youngsters.  There, I said it, out loud even.

I am no expert, or even very informed, but it seems to me if you get one everyday MLB starter and maybe 2-3 other MLB players out of a draft, or guys who can be used to trade for the same, that is not a bad result.

When you get production from youngsters, you can't help but stand up and notice and especially if you can thumb your nose at all the noise emanating from the usual "McLane is cheap" and "our farm system stinks" crowd.  They're missing a good thing happening right before their very own eyes.

This condescending type of thinking about the team's owner and front office is as predictable as the swallows returning to Capistrano every spring, or at least the gadwalls coming back to Anahuac marsh every fall.

*****

Bourn continues to impress.  He seems like an entirely different player from whoever wore his uniform in 2008.  OK, that is facetious; but Bourn has definitely made some positive adjustments from last year to this (one apparently being taking whatever Cooper says with a grain of salt), and that is not only a good sign for this year, but also for many years to come.  I am very glad he was not given up on or traded, as some Atrofanz seemed to fervently want toward the end of last season.  Whether out of circumstance or wisdom, the front office gets credit for patience and avoiding a panic move on that one.

[Ron Brand]

I don't think we can discount the contributions of one I. Rodriguez either. He's a huge upgrade in up-the-middle defense and by most accounts has been key in helping Wandy.

[hostros7]

I don't think we can discount the contributions of one I. Rodriguez either. He's a huge upgrade in up-the-middle defense and by most accounts has been key in helping Wandy.

I'm skeptical of anyone saying any catcher could help out a pitcher more than Brad, but I hope that's the case and Wandy's potential that's been there is realized.  I like PENCE!!!.  There I said it.  He may not be the second coming, but a guy who can hit .270 or better, 25 dingers, and 80 RBIs is fine by me.  We'll never have another Baggy or Bidge, and everyone, including the Grocer and Spam Gardner, should accept that and realize we've got some strong young players.  We may not have a stud farm system that a team who perpetually deals their strongest players (Marlins, etc.), but we have some pieces here. And I think the Astros are moving in the right direction in terms of development, this past draft in particular.  Great post, Noe. 

[HudsonHawk]

My main problem with McLane is with his choices in the area of personal footwear. 

He needs to pray to St. Hubbins.

[Ebby Calvin]

He needs to pray to St. Hubbins.

Very nice.  One of my favorite lines of Spinal Tap (and there are a ton).

[S.P. Rodriguez]

I'm skeptical of anyone saying any catcher could help out a pitcher more than Brad, but I hope that's the case and Wandy's potential that's been there is realized.  I like PENCE!!!.  There I said it.  He may not be the second coming, but a guy who can hit .270 or better, 25 dingers, and 80 RBIs is fine by me.  We'll never have another Baggy or Bidge, and everyone, including the Grocer and Spam Gardner, should accept that and realize we've got some strong young players.  We may not have a stud farm system that a team who perpetually deals their strongest players (Marlins, etc.), but we have some pieces here. And I think the Astros are moving in the right direction in terms of development, this past draft in particular.  Great post, Noe. 

here's the thing, no one DISLIKES Pence.  There is simply a consensus on where he is as a player and that he is not the latest Mud n' Blood Messiah (apologies to Burke, I know he has that trademarked).  What he is is a player with some weaknesses at the plate and in the field.  But he is strong, hustles and, for lack of a better way to say this, he simply gets after it. 

That said, if the Padres approached Houston with a proposal for Peavy that centered on Pence, I'd deal him in a nano-second.  He's a good player, better than average, but he's not going to be great unless he improves his approach at the plate and they manage to get him in LF, where his funky throwing motion and late reads on balls are less of a factor. 

[MusicMan]

Noe, I'm going to isolate onething you wrote here:

I submit they are because I do not believe Berkman will struggle all year long and Lee is already putting up good middle of the lineup numbers to say he's still one of the best run producers in the league. 

I'm starting to wonder about Berkman.  The opposite field HR was a nice sign, but I still have the nagging concern that his shoulder is in worse shape than he's letting on. I'll consider it a pleasant surprise if he can meet his career averages this year.

[Mr. Happy]

Noe, I'm going to isolate onething you wrote here:

I'm starting to wonder about Berkman.  The opposite field HR was a nice sign, but I still have the nagging concern that his shoulder is in worse shape than he's letting on. I'll consider it a pleasant surprise if he can meet his career averages this year.

I was thinking the exact same thing about Berkman. It is tough for a good ballplayer to admit that he's hurt. Ballplayers lie about that sort of thing.

[Jacksonian]

The Astros farm system suckz!!!1  Why can't they be more like the Rangers?!!!

Really though the "expert" evaluators make their calls based on what they perceive as the greatest number of prospects with the highest ceiling.  Meaning, they're meaningless.  The Bus Ride knows ours are meaningless; I'm not sure many of the other understand that.

Also, they aren't going to look at major league results much.  So the guys they don't like who have good major league careers aren't going to get much pub from them after the fact.  So, you don't hear much about the expurts misses.

Additionally they don't look as much at trade quality with prospects.  As has been pointed out elsewhere here Wade's deal of 5 prospects for Miggy turned out well for Houston, and Baltimore is still waiting for solid returns on the deal.  If the geniuses liked one of more of the prospects (say, Patton in the Tejada deal) in a deal they will continue to follow that guy and point out how well he's done, if he's done well.

What the Astros don't have on paper anyway are a lot of prospects with high ceilings.  They have a number of mid-level prospects.  Prospects that can be used in trade, as we've seen, and can have good major league careers.  Prospects that won't get much pub because they don't hit .350 with .600 slg or strike out a ton of batters.  In other words there are several good players at AA and AAA who can be brought up some time soon to compliment the veterans and more experienced younger players and expect to contribute.  Just none with the stats or radar gun numbers to grab the expurts' attention.

[hostros7]

here's the thing, no one DISLIKES Pence.  There is simply a consensus on where he is as a player and that he is not the latest Mud n' Blood Messiah (apologies to Burke, I know he has that trademarked).  What he is is a player with some weaknesses at the plate and in the field.  But he is strong, hustles and, for lack of a better way to say this, he simply gets after it. 

That said, if the Padres approached Houston with a proposal for Peavy that centered on Pence, I'd deal him in a nano-second.  He's a good player, better than average, but he's not going to be great unless he improves his approach at the plate and they manage to get him in LF, where his funky throwing motion and late reads on balls are less of a factor. 

I didn't mean to imply that I thought anyone did.  Sometimes he's frustrating, sometimes it seems as though there's icy hot in his jock, sometimes he's overanalyzed here to death, and I just think, amid all that, sometimes it gets lost that he's a pretty nice ballplayer who's a lot of fun to watch and root for because of his effort.

And the farm rating systems are BS.  The Astros would have jumped up several spots in the rankings if they had drafted Matt FUCKING Bush.  http://www.spikesnstars.com/forums/index.php?action=post;quote=264582;topic=108278.0;num_replies=10;sesc=850cb8152ad4240493c6993008ee266c

[JimR]

that he's a pretty nice ballplayer who's a lot of fun to watch and root for because of his effort.

i think he is an average player, and there is nothing wrong with that. i do not get the rest of your statement, though. i think he is frustrating to watch.

[hostros7]

i think he is an average player, and there is nothing wrong with that. i do not get the rest of your statement, though. i think he is frustrating to watch.

There are definitely frustrating moments.  Many.  Futilely trying to stretch singles into doubles, many of his at bats, just to name a few.  But he's also a pretty young player, who I think was rushed up through the system prior to being ready because of Drayton, marketing, a need at the big league club, etc.  He has shown moments this season of improvement to his approach...and sometimes gone right against it the next day.  It's frustrating, but I hope he gets it one day (soon).  In the mean time, I'm not going to let those moments of frustration completely overshadow the good.  Having Coop as his manager does not help, and greatly increases *my* frustration, as I would be very interested to see where Hunter would be with a great coach.

[Noe]

There are definitely frustrating moments.  Many.  Futilely trying to stretch singles into doubles, many of his at bats, just to name a few.  But he's also a pretty young player, who I think was rushed up through the system prior to being ready because of Drayton, marketing, a need at the big league club, etc.  He has shown moments this season of improvement to his approach...and sometimes gone right against it the next day.  It's frustrating, but I hope he gets it one day (soon).  In the mean time, I'm not going to let those moments of frustration completely overshadow the good.  Having Coop as his manager does not help, and greatly increases *my* frustration, as I would be very interested to see where Hunter would be with a great coach.

When Biggio first came up to the majors, his manager was Hal Lanier.  Biggio was only 22 years of age and was a catcher who was going to backup Alan Ashby.  Lanier was now losing his mind trying to get the veterans to play hard for him.  He had his infamous clubhouse tirade where he broke many things in his office while players like Puhl, Reynolds, Doran, Bell and others just basically ignored it.  So here is Biggio watching his major league skip losing his mind, so the veterans took him under their wings.  Bell and Doran more than anyone else.  Biggio would sit and talk baseball with them and not so much with Lanier.

The next season, Biggio was the starting catcher and his new manager was Art Howe.  Now the tutledge for Biggio was both manager and veterans on the team.  When a young player needs direction, it has to come from veterans and manager.  If manager and veterans are somewhat at odds, the player chooses who to listen to.  When Cooper was rumored to be at odds with veterans on this team (see: Rosenthal, Ken), it made sense that Pence and Bourn (two guys who are keys to this season in a way) were very confused where to get help.  Cooper made decisions so their playing time is dictated by the manager, not the veterans. 

I think where Bourn and Pence would get the most help in their young careers is having veterans, coaches and manager all working in the same manner for their benefit.  Sounds simple, but it can be a sticky situation under some managers to have veterans stepping in.  Cooper just seems to be feeling his way through as manager and right now, it just seems disjointed how veterans and skipper are working together for the benefit of the young players.  Maybe not, because I don't know for sure, but Pence seems to be doing some things now that make a lot of sense and has improved his game (hitting to right, being patient and not swinging at the first pitch, et. al.) and of course Bourn's game is light years ahead of where it was last year.  This may be a combination of Sean Berry, Cooper and veterans, but they are improving and these kids are going to help tremendously if so.  Cooper needs to back whatever is happening that makes this team function well so he needs to *communicate* that well now.  If not, then the cooperations of coaches, manager and veterans will cease or work against each other.

[JimR]

When Biggio first came up to the majors, his manager was Hal Lanier.  Biggio was only 22 years of age and was a catcher who was going to backup Alan Ashby.  Lanier was now losing his mind trying to get the veterans to play hard for him.  He had his infamous clubhouse tirade where he broke many things in his office while players like Puhl, Reynolds, Doran, Bell and others just basically ignored it.  So here is Biggio watching his major league skip losing his mind, so the veterans took him under their wings.  Bell and Doran more than anyone else.  Biggio would sit and talk baseball with them and not so much with Lanier.

The next season, Biggio was the starting catcher and his new manager was Art Howe.  Now the tutledge for Biggio was both manager and veterans on the team.  When a young player needs direction, it has to come from veterans and manager.  If manager and veterans are somewhat at odds, the player chooses who to listen to.  When Cooper was rumored to be at odds with veterans on this team (see: Rosenthal, Ken), it made sense that Pence and Bourn (two guys who are keys to this season in a way) were very confused where to get help.  Cooper made decisions so their playing time is dictated by the manager, not the veterans. 

I think where Bourn and Pence would get the most help in their young careers is having veterans, coaches and manager all working in the same manner for their benefit.  Sounds simple, but it can be a sticky situation under some managers to have veterans stepping in.  Cooper just seems to be feeling his way through as manager and right now, it just seems disjointed how veterans and skipper are working together for the benefit of the young players.  Maybe not, because I don't know for sure, but Pence seems to be doing some things now that make a lot of sense and has improved his game (hitting to right, being patient and not swinging at the first pitch, et. al.) and of course Bourn's game is light years ahead of where it was last year.  This may be a combination of Sean Berry, Cooper and veterans, but they are improving and these kids are going to help tremendously if so.  Cooper needs to back whatever is happening that makes this team function well so he needs to *communicate* that well now.  If not, then the cooperations of coaches, manager and veterans will cease or work against each other.

i have no hard data to support my opinion, but i think Sean Berry does a good job.

[Noe]

i have no hard data to support my opinion, but i think Sean Berry does a good job.

Same here, but I think he's getting to both kids and the results are really good.  I suspect (but do not know) some veterans are backing what Sean is saying, thus giving it credence.  I noticed that when a situation arose when Lee and Tejada had ducks on the bases, one shot a line drive to right and the other shot one back up the middle.  If Pence is sitting there noticing this, he'll see that this is huge confirmation that was Sean is teaching is correct and he can apply this over and over to help the team.  Of course you turn on inside pitches, of course you look for one in your zone early in the count, of course you can't swing defensively in those situations... but don't cloud those things in the minds of a youngster, be explicit and say things clearly.

But overall, someone is working with Bourn and Pence well right now and it is noticeable.

[At Ease]

What the Astros don't have on paper anyway are a lot of prospects with high ceilings.  They have a number of mid-level prospects.  Prospects that can be used in trade, as we've seen, and can have good major league careers.  Prospects that won't get much pub because they don't hit .350 with .600 slg or strike out a ton of batters.  In other words there are several good players at AA and AAA who can be brought up some time soon to compliment the veterans and more experienced younger players and expect to contribute.  Just none with the stats or radar gun numbers to grab the expurts' attention.

Do you think we have more of these types of prospects than most organizations, to sort of compensate for the lack of 'high-ceiling' prospects?

[JimR]

Same here, but I think he's getting to both kids and the results are really good.  I suspect (but do not know) some veterans are backing what Sean is saying, thus giving it credence.  I noticed that when a situation arose when Lee and Tejada had ducks on the bases, one shot a line drive to right and the other shot one back up the middle.  If Pence is sitting there noticing this, he'll see that this is huge confirmation that was Sean is teaching is correct and he can apply this over and over to help the team.  Of course you turn on inside pitches, of course you look for one in your zone early in the count, of course you can't swing defensively in those situations... but don't cloud those things in the minds of a youngster, be explicit and say things clearly.

But overall, someone is working with Bourn and Pence well right now and it is noticeable.

Lee's single through the right side could be used as an instructional video. beautiful "go the other way" approach and swing.

[Noe]

Lee's single through the right side could be used as an instructional video. beautiful "go the other way" approach and swing.

I had the same reaction when I saw him do that.  "Beautiful!!!" (said to no one in room other than the wiener dog, who waved his tail in agreement).

[Mr. Happy]

I had the same reaction when I saw him do that.  "Beautiful!!!" (said to no one in room other than the wiener dog, who waved his tail in agreement).

A lot of players should be watching Lee's approach when he has two strikes.

[Andyzipp]

A lot of players should be watching Lee's approach when he has two strikes.

The fact that he even has an approach with two strikes puts him ahead of most of his teammates (if not most of baseball).

[Jacksonian]

Do you think we have more of these types of prospects than most organizations, to sort of compensate for the lack of 'high-ceiling' prospects?

Maybe, though, if so, I'd bet not by much.