Pence Fastball %

[Bloony]

Did anybody else just hear that? Pence sees the lowest % of fastballs out of qualifying hitters?

[homer]

Did anybody else just hear that? Pence sees the lowest % of fastballs out of qualifying hitters?

Does that suprise you?

[Bloony]

Does that suprise you?

That the % is the absolute lowest? Kinda. I mean I figured it was probably down there. He's bounced back lately from his terrible June. Do you think he's re-adjusted??

[BudGirl]

That the % is the absolute lowest? Kinda. I mean I figured it was probably down there. He's bounced back lately from his terrible June. Do you think he's re-adjusted??

just curious, what pitch does the get the highest % of the time?

[Noe]

just curious, what pitch does the get the highest % of the time?

Oh, oh, oh.... I want to say... ahum... slider?

[JaneDoe]

Oh, oh, oh.... I want to say... ahum... slider?

Ya think?

[BudGirl]

Oh, oh, oh.... I want to say... ahum... slider?

don't be dumb Noe.  opposing teams wouldn't throw him a pitch he can swing and miss at.  that would be mean.

[Twoniner]

ust curious, what pitch does the get the highest % of the time?


Oh, oh, oh.... I want to say... ahum... slider?

  He has to still see fastballs more than any other pitch.   He probably sees more sliders than almost anyone, but it's not going to outnumber fastballs.

[mihoba]

  He has to still see fastballs more than any other pitch.   He probably sees more sliders than almost anyone, but it's not going to outnumber fastballs.

Bullshit. Maybe you should watch the games. He gets a steady diet of offspeed stuff.

[Andyzipp]

Bullshit. Maybe you should watch the games. He gets a steady diet of offspeed stuff.

I would think it's close.  I agree that he sees more breaking stuff than any hitter I've seen in years, but without a fastball to set it up, a slider "should" start to become less and less effective.

[jbm]

Anyone know where they get this data?  or the "batting ave. by strike zone area" graphs?

[idlelife]

  He has to still see fastballs more than any other pitch.   He probably sees more sliders than almost anyone, but it's not going to outnumber fastballs.

I think most of this data comes from Stats Inc., but I don't know anyone who has access to that stuff.

I was curious about this as well, so I looked back at MLB's Gameday for the last 11 games (I don't recommend doing this, it's not that fun).  11 games is a ridiculously small sample size, so I don't know that this really shows anything.  Why 11 games?  I'd originally planned on just doing 10, but one of the game's (7/26/08) data was pretty bad (5 of the 7 pitches Hunter saw that day were undefined).  Another caveat is ... well, who really knows how MLB gets this information?

Here's what I found in this totally useless exercise:
156 total pitches seen
68 Fastballs (43.6%) - 9 hits
34 Sliders (21.8%) - 3 hits
22 Changeups (14.1%) - 0 hits
18 Curveballs (11.5%) - 1 hit
3 Splitters (1.9%) - 1 hit
1 Sinker (0.6%) - 0 hits
also
6 undefined pitches and 4 intentional balls

Again, this is a ridiculously small sample size and proves ... well, absolutely nothing (I'm assuming; I don't have any idea what a good sample size would be).  It may also be worth noting that Hunter's on a nice little hitting streak right now (his average has risen 13 points in the last 10 games) so maybe he was seeing a lot less fastballs earlier.

As for people thinking that Hunter never gets fastballs, it looks fairly close to me (and yes, I understand that no one said "never"; I'm not the first person to use hyperbole on this board).  We just see him swinging horribly on the offspeed stuff, so that's what sticks out in our memory the most.  Watching the game is absolutely the most important thing we can do to understand what's going on, but our memories aren't perfect.

[JimR]

Are you counting fastballs thrown purposely out of the strike zone the same as fastballs he could hit?

[Twoniner]

He has to still see fastballs more than any other pitch.   He probably sees more sliders than almost anyone, but it's not going to outnumber fastballs.


Bullshit. Maybe you should watch the games. He gets a steady diet of offspeed stuff.

   I'm hoping you just didn't pay attention to the question I was replying to and aren't that stupid to believe that Hunter Pence sees sliders more frequently than fastballs. 

ust curious, what pitch does the get the highest % of the time?


Oh, oh, oh.... I want to say... ahum... slider?

Here's a breakdown on pitches seen by Pence that were captured by the MLB.com PitchFx.
http://baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/bat/Hunter_Pence.html

[Bloony]

We just see him swinging horribly on the offspeed stuff, so that's what sticks out in our memory the most. 

It's like the clutch hitter stuff. There's no way he gets more sliders than fastballs total, even if he sees less fastballs than any other hitter.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

Are you counting fastballs thrown purposely out of the strike zone the same as fastballs he could hit?

Are you saying that all instances, i.e. pitches, shouldn't be counted the same?  Are you implying there is context to measurements and the measurement itself doesn't account for that?  My world is shattered.

[T. J.]

Here's a breakdown on pitches seen by Pence that were captured by the MLB.com PitchFx.
http://baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/bat/Hunter_Pence.html

But man, can he hit a splitter!

[Lurch]

http://baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/bat/Hunter_Pence.html

Damn, that's cool stuff.  Nice find

[mihoba]

   I'm hoping you just didn't pay attention to the question I was replying to and aren't that stupid to believe that Hunter Pence sees sliders more frequently than fastballs. 

I was referring to offspeed pitches in general, sliders, curves, change ups. He sees more of those than FB's, and for good reason.

[idlelife]

Are you counting fastballs thrown purposely out of the strike zone the same as fastballs he could hit?

Yup.  I only recorded the pitch type, not where it crossed the plate.

[T. J.]

Poking around on that site, it appears the original link was to the 2007 stats.  Here's 2008 for Spaz:  http://baseball.bornbybits.com/2008/batters/Hunter_Pence.html

[JimR]

It's like the clutch hitter stuff. There's no way he gets more sliders than fastballs total, even if he sees less fastballs than any other hitter.

STFU

[Twoniner]

    This site, fangraphs, http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8252&position=OF   goes into a little more on how often Pence gets pitched to in the zone, how much he swings out of the zone,  etc...   Look at the bottom of the page, for "O-Swing" out of zone swing percentage.  He swings at pitches that are out of the zone right at about 30% of the time.  By comparison, Berkman swings at them 22% of the time.   Pretty cool site once you get used to some of the numbers and compare players.

[austro]

Are those plots rendered as seen from a center-field camera or as seen from the home plate ump's point of view? The location of everything in the slider chart makes me think it must be the latter.

[JimR]

Yup.  I only recorded the pitch type, not where it crossed the plate.

why? don't you think that is a significant fact?

[mihoba]

Poking around on that site, it appears the original link was to the 2007 stats.  Here's 2008 for Spaz:  http://baseball.bornbybits.com/2008/batters/Hunter_Pence.html

This is basically what I was referring to. He gets 40% sliders and curves (hard to tell sometimes which is which) to 38% fastballs.

[Lurch]

Are those plots rendered as seen from a center-field camera or as seen from the home plate ump's point of view? The location of everything in the slider chart makes me think it must be the latter.

Was thinking the same thing.  The slider plots suggest its the catcher view

[JimR]

This is basically what I was referring to. He gets 40% sliders and curves (hard to tell sometimes which is which) to 38% fastballs.

and at least some of the fastballs are deliberately wasted to make him think he'll get one he can hit the next pitch.

[homer]

Poking around on that site, it appears the original link was to the 2007 stats.  Here's 2008 for Spaz:  http://baseball.bornbybits.com/2008/batters/Hunter_Pence.html

Pence fastballs = 38.7%, League Average = 48.48%
Pence sliders = 28.39%, League Average = 17.42%

[Lurch]

Someone was going to do it...

Biggio

[JackAstro]

Someone was going to do it...

Biggio

Ah, dammit. Look at all the pretty little red triangles on the slider chart. It's worth noting that you are spectacularly good if you can log a HOF career with a weakness that glaring and consistent.

[idlelife]

why? don't you think that is a significant fact?

That is absolutely a significant fact.  We can add this to the numerous other caveats I threw in previously.  And I'm sure there are still more caveats out there.

I also think the information that's been presented since my post pretty well trumps anything I put into this thread.

[Mr. Happy]

Ah, dammit. Look at all the pretty little red triangles on the slider chart. It's worth noting that you are spectacularly good if you can log a HOF career with a weakness that glaring and consistent.

While Pigpen was particularly vulnerable to the slider, all hitters are vulnerable to the well thrown slider. The problem is that most pitchers never develop a really good slider. I don't even teach that pitch. I'm a believer in the curveball, as much for the change of pace as the change of planes.

[Noe]

   I'm hoping you just didn't pay attention to the question I was replying to and aren't that stupid to believe that Hunter Pence sees sliders more frequently than fastballs. 


Here's a breakdown on pitches seen by Pence that were captured by the MLB.com PitchFx.
http://baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/bat/Hunter_Pence.html

I'm actually kind of hoping you didn't take my attempt at humor as an empirical statement of truth.  If so, you shouldn't have bothered to reply to me because you're wasting your time trying to teach me something.  I'm stupid and all, but really not *that* stupid.

[Noe]

and at least some of the fastballs are deliberately wasted to make him think he'll get one he can hit the next pitch.

The proverbial "show me" fastball.  Known very well to hitters and pitchers alike, not much to roto-geeks.

[strosrays]

Are you counting fastballs thrown purposely out of the strike zone the same as fastballs he could hit?

They said pitches he "sees."  It doesn't stop him from swinging, but a lot of those sliders, I don't think he sees very much at all.

[hillbillyken]

Ah, dammit. Look at all the pretty little red triangles on the slider chart. It's worth noting that you are spectacularly good if you can log a HOF career with a weakness that glaring and consistent.

Amen brother