Here comes the frantic finish. The NL East will be one massive preview coming out tomorrow and the NL Central will come out on Tuesday.
Arizona Diamondbacks
2004 In Review Wow, did the shit ever hit the fan in the desert in 2004. The big Richie Sexson deal cratered when Sexson blew out his shoulder, totaling less than 100 ABs. Meanwhile, Brandon Webb won the pitching triple crown of suck, leading the league in losses, walks and wild pitches. Luis Gonzales had to have Tommy John surgery to repair his elbow, Steve Finley had a solid season but was dealt at the deadline, and Randy Johnson barely managed to finish over .500 despite a killer year?2.61 ERA in 245 innings.
On the plus side?.well, they still have the 2001 Championship banner hanging at the BOB. That?s about it.
2004 Offseason in Review In: Javier Vasquez, Jose Cruz, Royce Clayton, Russ Ortiz, Troy Glaus and Shawn Green. Good, decent, horrid but cheap, horrid but expensive, good and injured, and good but over-paid. Out: Johnson, Sexson and Matt Mantei.
No matter how good Vasquez is, the D-Backs took a huge step back when they traded the Unit. What?s weird is that by the time the Dbacks are worth a shit again, Vasquez will be a free agent. This has the making of a death spiral, with the team trying to add pieces of the puzzle through free agency, but seemingly each piece they add is wrong. The money they spent on Ortiz/Green was insane. And for the Glaus gambit to pay off , he?ll need 550 ABs. Not gonna happen.
Catchers One bright spot here is Chris Snyder. The kid shows some pop but has been rushed through the system, hitting 5 HRs in just under 100 ABs with the D-Backs. Catcher who can hit 20+ HRs are fairly rare, especially one as young as Snyder. Look for him to split some time with Koyie Hill this season.
First Base Shea Hillenbrand was dealt back to the AL, this time Toronto, and with the addition of Glaus, Chad Tracy slides across the diamond to 1B. 8 HRs in 421 ABs last year. Yeah, he?s young but c?mon?8 freaking HRs!!!! You are looking at the worst 1B in the NL.
Second Base Aw shit, Craig Counsell is back with the D-Backs. A nice utility guy to have around, but giving him 500+ ABs is just a horrible idea. Give Scott Hairston the ABs, you losers aren?t going anywhere in 2005. See what the kid can do over a full season.
Shortstop A few years back Alex Cintron looked like a SS with a pretty nice future ahead of him. Now, he finds himself behind Royce Clayton, who had an OPS of 821 at Coors Field, just 650 away from Coors. See 2B comment, no way should Clayton be taking ABs away from Cintron.
Third Base Troy Glaus can mash. Troy Glaus can field. Troy Glaus can not stay healthy?just 520 ABs over the past two seasons. If healthy, he?s the 2nd best 3B in the NL behind Rolen and can hit 40 HRs. He?s the type of player that can help a contending team reach front-runner status (say the Phillies, Astros or Padres). He?ll help the D-Backs finish 4th instead of 5th.
Outfield Luis Gonzales, Jose Cruz Jr, and Shawn Green. If only this was 2001. Cruz went 30/30 in 2001, Gonzo hit 57 bombs, and Green hit 49 HRs with 125 RBIs. Gonzo is coming back from elbow surgery and Cruz is coming back from a season in Hell, or maybe it was just Tropicana Field. Green is still a good hitter, capable of a .280 average and 30 HRs.
Starters Brandon Webb, Javier Vasquez, Russ Ortiz, Brad Halsey and Shawn Estes. Ortiz is being paid a bunch of money to eat innings and walk a ton of hitters, and Halsey/Estes are strictly rotation fillers. Webb and Vasquez each have the potential to be All Star pitchers over the next few years. Vasquez had a nice season going in the first half of 2004, not sure what happened? If healthy, he?ll be one of the top 20 starters in the NL.
Bullpen With the loss of Mantei, the bull pen looks to Greg Aquino, Mike Koplove and Jose Valverde. Smell the domination!!! Valverde and Koplove are talented, but neither has a track record of health. What leads the D-Backs will generate will often be choked away.
Outlook A poor team, probably on track to lose 88-93 games depending on the health of Glaus, Gonzo, Green and Vasquez. Green/Glaus.Vasquez are just stop gaps. None will be part of the next Arizona playoff team, though to be honest it may be a long while for the next Arizona playoff team.
Fantasy Projections Assumes an NL-only league, 10 teams, 5x5 rules. Avg/HR/RBI/R/SB. W/K/ERA/WHIP/Saves
Snyder?255/15/55/45/0. I think he?ll eventually end up with the majority of playing time. Nice upside for keeper leagues but don?t expect much this year--$1.
Tracy?285/12/75/60/2. Stay away. Not a bad player, especially since he can qualify at 3B but as a 1B he is awful. $5.
Counsell?255/5/45/85/15. Will score some runs because he?s hitting leadoff but he?s not a great table setter. If/when Arizona gets tired of his .300 OBP, he?ll be useless. $5
Clayton?260/10/55/75/10. Can?t imagine him getting all the ABs needed for this projection--$1.
Glaus?260/25/85/70/0. $20, with the upside of a lot more if he?s healthy. Note, even when he?s cranking out 40 HRs, his average has been in the 255 range. Best case he?s a 3 category player.
Gonzales--270/15/70/65/5. Not much is left in the tank. Bid cautiously?$12.
Cruz--255/25/75/80/15. The BOB should be good for Cheito, pushing his power numbers up a bit. Could also see an increase in his SB totals if the D-Backs try to manufacture some runs. $17.
Green?270/27/95/85/5. About a $24 player.
You guys in keeper leagues can take a flyer on Cintron and Hairston for $1.
Vasquez?11/175/3.95/1.30/0. A $17 pitcher trapped in Arizona where the wins will be hard to come by. I?d stop bidding at $15.
Webb?10/145/3.75/1.33/0. Once he gets his walks under control, he?ll be a $20 pitcher. Until then, $15.
Ortiz/Halsey/Estes?All 3 suck, all 3 will do something like 8/105/4.85/1.35/0. $1 each.
Aquino?3/40/4.15/1.32/17?Won?t keep his job as closer. Saves are worth about $10.
