Just comparing vs last year (Vegas 2007)
East
NY Mets 93.5 88 +5.5 Changes: Added Santanna, Schneider, Church Lost: Glavine, Lo Duca, Green
Philly 88 89 -1 Changes: Added Lidge, Feliz, Jenkins Lost: Lohse, Leiber, Nunez, Rowand
Atlanta 86 84 +2 Changes: Added Glavine, Kotsay Lost: Returia, Jones
Wash 71.5 73 -1.5 Changes: Added Milledge, Lo Duca Lost: Church, Schneider
Florida 68.5 71 -2.5 Changes: Added Miller, prospects Lost: Cabrerra, Willis
Central
Chicago Cubs 88 85 +3 Changes: Added Fukudome, Leiber Lost: Prior, Floyd
Milwaukee 84 83 +1 Changes: Added Cameron, Gagne Lost: Jenkins, Cordero, Linebrink
Cincinnati 77 72 +5 Changes: Added Cordero, Affeldt, Fogg Lost: Hamilton, Milton
St. Louis 76.5 78 -1.5 Changes: Added Glaus, Pineiro Lost: Edmonds, Rolen, Eckstein
Houston 75 73 +2 Changes: Added Tejada, Bourn, Matsui, Valverde, bullpen Lost: Everett, Scott, Biggio, Lidge, Qualls
Pittsburgh 70 68 +2 Changes: None
West
Arizona 87.5 90 -2.5 Change: Added Haren, Qualls Lost: Valverde
LA Dodgers 87 82 +5 Change: Added Jones Lost: Gonzalez
San Diego 84.5 89 -4.5 Change: Added Edmonds, Iguchi, Wolf, Prior Lost: Cameron, Bradley, Giles
Colorado 83 90 -7 Change: Lost Matsui
SF 72 71 +1 Change: Added: Rowand Lost: Bonds, Feliz
Things that stand out to me:
Mets swapped Glavine for Santanna which upgrades and Lo Duca for Schneider seems like even swap to me, but Green was pretty productive for them and not sure Church can match that. Still healthy Pedro might help too, but a bump of almost 6 wins... call me skeptical, I will take the under.
Phily seems like they got a bigger bump. Production wise is Jenkins that much a drop off from Rowand? A bit, but they add a huge upgrade at 3rd base, and the get of Lidge allows Meyers to fill in loss of Lohse. So I personally think they are better, Give me the over.
Atlanta adds effectively 2 pitchers with Hampton supposedly being healthy again, so that should help, maybe not a ton, but some. The loss of Renturia will hurt, but this young kid they have replacing him looked pretty good in the limited action he saw last year, and Andruw Jones had fallen so far that Kotsay is about equivalent, so I see them improving about like projected. Even on this one.
Washington isn't any different than last year, IMO. I see Vegas pretty close on this one too.
Florida traded away their top hitter and supposedly their top pitcher for prospects. Well it is hard to lose more than 110, but I am guessing they will lose even more than Vegas thinks, give me the under.
On to the West (saving the Central for last).
Arizona gained the AL All-start starter from last year and lost their closer for a quality set-up guy. Not to mention they have a ton of young talent that was getting its feet wet last year. I am not exactly sure how or why there is a predicted drop off, if anything I see them getting better. Give me the over
LA Dodgers add Andruw Jones over Luis Gonzalez and also solidified some spots for some other players. But I just don't see what makes them better, let alone 5 games better. Give me the under, I just don't see it.
Padres made some of the biggest changes outside of Houston this offseason, but they added to their rotation and improved 2B significantly. They did did also lose quite a bit in the OF. But I just don't see a loss of almost 5 games from last year, when they kindof tanked at the end. Give me the over on Vegas, but about the same as last year overall.
Rockies made very little changes overall. The did play over their heads last year, and the are losing Matsui, who wasn't THE guy or anything, but was definately positive to their team overall. I see a drop, but 7 games seems a bit harsh, give me the over.
The Giants are about to be THE bottom feeder of the NL for a couple of years. Bonds maybe a total ass, but the guy was the center of their offense. Couple that with the loss of Feliz who was pretty productive himself, and Rowand isn't going to make up the difference. If any team has a 7 game difference this year it is the Giants, and it isn't an improvement of 7 games, either. Give me the under.
NL Central:
Cubs did make another series of moves to improve this off season. The biggest question is what will Fukudome provide other than a Freudian slip waiting to happen. They are better than last year, I think. 3 games seems reasonable. But then these are the Cubs, right? So who cares they will choke if the chance arises to. So give me the under.
The Brew-Crew really looks tough. Cameron when back from suspsension will make them better. But don't dismiss the loss of Cordero. He might have been having his career year, but he was a big reason for their success last year. Gagne I don't trust. But overall I see them improving from last year, so give me the over.
Reds made some big moves for pitching. Overpaying was a given. The loss of Hamilton will hurt them, offensively I think. Plus they don't play like a team. Still they are better than last year pitching wise, but 5 games seems like a big improvement. I am going under on them, but not by much.
The Cards look terrible. If Mulder and Carpenter truely come back they look better, but Pujols looks like the DL is going to happen in his future, probably this year. So I see them dropping off from last year. Give me the under.
The Astros have so many question marks. We have beaten them up here, but I think the pitching will be about the same as last year and the offense improved but some to alot. So I think they improve from last year, but probably not much more than .500 unless the pitching really comes through. Give me the over.
The Bucs seem to have no direction and even less support from ownership. They made next to no moves during the offseason yet Vegas gives them a 2 game bump? I don't see it, take the under.
Ok, I wasted WAY too much time on this.
