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Ryan in Houston

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written off (again)
« on: February 13, 2006, 01:14:08 pm »
the article

Right now, the Astros look bound for third or fourth place, and while Clemens will improve the team, he's probably not enough to lift the Astros to the top of what figures to be a tougher Wild Card fray in 2006  (it goes without saying that Houston isn't going to win the Central)
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MRaup

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Re: written off (again)
« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2006, 01:19:54 pm »
Quote:

the article

Right now, the Astros look bound for third or fourth place, and while Clemens will improve the team, he's probably not enough to lift the Astros to the top of what figures to be a tougher Wild Card fray in 2006  (it goes without saying that Houston isn't going to win the Central)



Man, you're crazy. You act like the 'Stros went to the World Series or something with this same team last year.
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pravata

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Re: written off (again)
« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2006, 01:45:35 pm »
If Clemens does sign with either of his Lone Star State suitors, Houston or the Rangers, there is a distinct possibility that a run at the pennant will be out of the question for either franchise. That's where the Red Sox come in.
The Link

That could leave the Yankees looking at Pettitte as a backup plan, Newsday said. He is due $17.5 million this year and Yankees officials feel that could be an incentive for a trade if the Astros fall out of contention in midseason.
The Link
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S.P. Rodriguez

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Re: written off (again)
« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2006, 02:11:55 pm »
Not all are completely writing off the  Astros.

There are some questions about the team but writers like Bauman and Footer are giving the Astros some credit for what they've done the past 2 seasons.  Writers like Perry and the east coasters are beyond description when it comes to how poor their conclusions are.  As a matter of fact, I'm convinced they are aware of this point given they so rarely provide any explanation for their dismal projections.  Perry's statement of the Astros "diving headlong into rebuilding" is absurd.  The guy needs to stop using his ass as his most reliable source of information.  

Putting this all in perspective though is that ST is just around the corner and these piss and moaners aren't able to  temper my excitement about a team that, with any luck other than bad, should be competitive once again.
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MikeyBoy

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Re: written off (again)
« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2006, 03:01:58 pm »
Quote:

The guy needs to stop using his ass as his most reliable source of information.



Bravo.
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T. J.

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Re: written off (again)
« Reply #5 on: February 13, 2006, 03:11:57 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

The guy needs to stop using his ass as his most reliable source of information.



Bravo.



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MikeyBoy

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Re: written off (again)
« Reply #6 on: February 13, 2006, 03:40:06 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

The guy needs to stop using his ass as his most reliable source of information.



Bravo.



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If so, the lawyers in here better watch out.
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S.P. Rodriguez

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Re: written off (again)
« Reply #7 on: February 13, 2006, 05:18:31 pm »
 ESPN  had to jump in on the big kiss off for Houston.  My favorite part of this article is the quote from Jim Bowden:

But not everyone was impressed. Nationals GM Jim Bowden told Florida Today, "I'm not sure they would have gotten into the playoffs as a wild card had the Phillies played the same schedule that [the Astros] had."

Bowden is someone who's successfully accomplished nothing of note and still manages to land GM gigs no one else wants.

And this statement is a good one too!

Clearly, the Astros are pinning their hopes on Clemens' return. Other than adding Preston Wilson, the Astros, who were 11th in the National League in runs, haven't upgraded their offense. The Cardinals are the logical favorites in the Central Division, but second place could be anyone's prize, including the Cubs, who've added Juan Pierre and Jacque Jones as their Nos. 1 and 2 hitters. The two top spots in Chicago's lineup scored 173 runs last year, third fewest in the National League.

I'm left wondering if there's some form of contagious amnesia that is leading all national sports writers to forget that Berkman missed the first month and took nearly 2 more months before he was consistantly producting at his normal levels?  Or maybe they just don't see Ensberg continuing his success from last season.  Klappy the Clown actually mentions this here:

The Astros are hoping, of course, for Morgan Ensberg to hit the way he did before being struck by a pitch on his hand on Sept. 5, forcing him to miss the next 10 games. Ensberg set Houston franchise records for home runs (36) and RBI (101) by a third baseman in 2005, but he had just one homer in the playoffs.

So, following the writers logic it's more reasonable to be skeptical about a player's contribution based on performance after an injury rather than optimistic due to performance prior to the injury?  This would be funny if it didn't seem like these writers had ciruclated a script of ways to dismiss the Astros success last season and potential success in 2006.  

And I'm sorry but replacing Burke with Wilson is a huge upgrade!  Not a slight upgrade or a "tweaking" but a HUGE upgrade on offense.
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strosrays

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Re: written off (again)
« Reply #8 on: February 13, 2006, 07:24:58 pm »
Quote:

written off (again)




I'm sittin alone, Saturday night, watching the late late show
A bottle of wine, some cigarettes, I got no place to go
Well, I saw your article today; and the teams that you would choose
And I'm down to seeds and stems again, too

Well, I met my old friend Walt today from up in Saint Loo-eee
He smiled because his team made trades and got agents that were free
And I couldn't hide my tears, because of what Purpura wouldn't do
And now I'm down to seeds and stems again, too

Now everybody tells me there's better ways to get high
They don't seem to understand I'm too far gone to try
All these thoughts of 4th place or worse, they're all that I can't lose
And I'm down to seeds and stems again, too

Well my dog died just yesterday and left me all alone
The finance company dropped by today and repossessed my home
That's nothing when we'll be lucky to make .500 if we do
And now I'm down to seeds and stems again, too

Now everybody tells me there's worse things to earn my pity
But Roger's gone and Pettitte's headed back to New York City
And Biggio is 40 and he'll play like 42
And I'm down to seeds and stems again, too

Just got the down to seeds and stems again blues
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pravata

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Re: written off (again)
« Reply #9 on: February 13, 2006, 07:29:26 pm »
Quote:

...Clearly, the Astros are pinning their hopes on Clemens' return. ...

Astros were 17-19 when Clemens pitched in 2005.
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Arky Vaughan

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Re: written off (again)
« Reply #10 on: February 13, 2006, 07:50:43 pm »
The problem all of these predictions have to deal with is that their analysis going into 2005 would have been just as dire.

Any team that runs Clemens, Oswalt and Pettitte out to the mound three of every five starts and closes out games with Qualls, Wheeler and Lidge has a chance of winning enough baseball games to contend for a playoff berth.
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S.P. Rodriguez

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Re: written off (again)
« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2006, 08:34:09 pm »
Quote:

The problem all of these predictions have to deal with is that their analysis going into 2005 would have been just as dire.

Any team that runs Clemens, Oswalt and Pettitte out to the mound three of every five starts and closes out games with Qualls, Wheeler and Lidge has a chance of winning enough baseball games to contend for a playoff berth.



And I could live with their conclusions if they didn't cite inacurate information or information taken out of it's complete context, i.e. stating offensive ineptitude while identifying meager improvements w/ the addition of "ONLY" Wilson and fail to consider that Berkman was not the usual Berkman for 3  out the 6 month season in 2005.  It's laziness, at best.  

As to your statement, I can see no flaw in your statement about competing for a playoff berth.  And I realize these writers have to make bolder statements than the one you made as they are selling newspapers.  It just seems odd they are all overwhelmingly negative regarding the Astros.

Reading my own post, I'm giving myself a WFW!...
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pravata

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Re: written off (again)
« Reply #12 on: February 13, 2006, 09:50:32 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

The problem all of these predictions have to deal with is that their analysis going into 2005 would have been just as dire.

Any team that runs Clemens, Oswalt and Pettitte out to the mound three of every five starts and closes out games with Qualls, Wheeler and Lidge has a chance of winning enough baseball games to contend for a playoff berth.



And I could live with their conclusions if they didn't cite inacurate information or information taken out of it's complete context, i.e. stating offensive ineptitude while identifying meager improvements w/ the addition of "ONLY" Wilson and fail to consider that Berkman was not the usual Berkman for 3  out the 6 month season in 2005.  It's laziness, at best.  

As to your statement, I can see no flaw in your statement about competing for a playoff berth.  And I realize these writers have to make bolder statements than the one you made as they are selling newspapers.  It just seems odd they are all overwhelmingly negative regarding the Astros.

Reading my own post, I'm giving myself a WFW!...  



Not so fast!

"Jim Bowden told Florida Today, "I'm not sure they would have gotten into the playoffs as a wild card had the Phillies played the same schedule that [the Astros] had."

The Braves played the same schedule, what's the excuse there?  

Astros vs East 20-16 vs Central 43-36
Phillies v. East 38-37 vs Central 21-20

AND Astros record vs Phillies 6-0

Shut the fuck up Bowden.
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SeanBergmanRules

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Re: written off (again)
« Reply #13 on: February 14, 2006, 12:37:40 am »
Bowden never analyzes the facts before making personell decisions.  Why would you expect him to analyze the facts before making asinine comments?
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Russ99

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Re: written off (again)
« Reply #14 on: February 14, 2006, 11:23:27 am »
Quote:

but second place could be anyone's prize, including the Cubs, who've added Juan Pierre and Jacque Jones as their Nos. 1 and 2 hitters. The two top spots in Chicago's lineup scored 173 runs last year, third fewest in the National League.



Jacque Jones?!? I'm quaking in my boots.

I'm really sick of ESPN and their highly esteemed team of Cub apologists.

We'll see how things shake out.
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Froback

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Re: written off (again)
« Reply #15 on: February 14, 2006, 01:26:19 pm »
Ok, I tend to be a big believer in Pitching and Defense wins.  While I accept balance is always prefered, if you can only be strong in one area, pitching is the best area to be strong in.  For example this is why Texas is always stuggling and Atlanta is always winning.

But I did some checking going on the assumption (just so you know the bias approach I am taking) that the winner of each division and the Wildcard is probably the best team ERA of that group, with some variance given to hitting, if the pitching is really close.

I had a more detailed write-up but accidentally deleted it, and was too lazy to retype it all, so I will give a summary:

The only abormalities from 2002-2005 (4 years) was Toronto not being in the playoffs last year (as AL East Champion or Wild Card), The Twins and Marlins in 2003 (Looks like it should have been White Sox and Astros).

In every other case the team with either the best ERA, or almost best ERA and a much better offense won either the Division or the best of the rest race.

Results, prove, if you have the best pitching in your area (divisional or Wild Card race) you will win (most of the time), but scoring runs will help seperate those teams that are close in pitching, and sometimes FLUKEs do happen but not often.

Quick and dirty numbers:
2002:
AL East: Yankees (close 2nd, but beat Bos in Runs Scored)
AL Central: Twins (1st)
AL West: A's (1st)
AL WC: Angels (1st)
NL East: Braves (1st)
NL Central: Turdnals (1st)
NL West: D-Backs (3rd, but best in Runs Scored)
NL WC: Giants (1st)
2003:
AL East: Yankees (1st)
AL Central: Twins (3rd, Aboration?)
AL West: A's (1st)
AL WC: Red Sox (8th, Aboration?)
NL East: Braves (1st)
NL Central: sCrubs (1st)
NL West: Giants (2nd, Dodgers best in ERA, Worst in Runs)
NL WC: Marlins (6th, offense the difference)
2004:
AL East: Yankees (2nd, Curse is only explaination here)
AL Central: Twins (1st)
AL West: Angles (close 2nd, Runs difference)
AL WC: Red Sox (3rd, barely behind As and Twins)
NL East: Braves (1st)
NL Central: Turdnals (1st)
NL West: Dodgers (1st)
NL WC: Astros (6th, Cubs collapse, magical 2nd half)
2005:
AL East: Yankees (distant 2nd)
AL Central: White Sox (1st, tied)
AL West: Angels (1st)
AL WC: Red Sox (11th, WOW, FLUKE!)
NL East: Braves (3rd, but very close to 1st)
NL Central: Turdnals (1st)
NL West: Padres (1st)
NL WC: Astros (2nd in ML)
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strosrays

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Re: written off (again)
« Reply #16 on: February 14, 2006, 01:45:06 pm »
Quote:

Jacque Jones?!? I'm quaking in my boots.

I'm really sick of ESPN and their highly esteemed team of Cub apologists.

We'll see how things shake out.




At best, the Cubs have made themselves a little less shitty this offseason.  If that.

Its amazing to think that 3-4 years ago, they had so much young talent, especially pitching.  And deep pockets, too; and some people (including me) privately thought, 'Jesus, they could be a juggernaut.'  They found a way to fuck it all up, though.  The Cubs, ha!  The window looks like it is closing on them already.

BTW, in a similar vein, am I the only one wondering what all the hype is about Toronto in the other league?  They added a young pitcher with an injury history, a slugging third baseman with an injury history, and a first baseman who comes up a little short offensively for a corner infielder.  And, oh yeah, they paid XX millions for a LH short reliever.  But I have heard and read a lot of experts say they're a force now.  Could even upset the Red Sox and Yankees, even.  I don't get it.  I mean, I know these ESPN guys are too smart to believe just beacuse the Jays threw some money around, they are dramatically better, right?
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Froback

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Re: written off (again)
« Reply #17 on: February 14, 2006, 03:40:49 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Jacque Jones?!? I'm quaking in my boots.

I'm really sick of ESPN and their highly esteemed team of Cub apologists.

We'll see how things shake out.




At best, the Cubs have made themselves a little less shitty this offseason.  If that.

Its amazing to think that 3-4 years ago, they had so much young talent, especially pitching.  And deep pockets, too; and some people (including me) privately thought, 'Jesus, they could be a juggernaut.'  They found a way to fuck it all up, though.  The Cubs, ha!  The window looks like it is closing on them already.

BTW, in a similar vein, am I the only one wondering what all the hype is about Toronto in the other league?  They added a young pitcher with an injury history, a slugging third baseman with an injury history, and a first baseman who comes up a little short offensively for a corner infielder.  And, oh yeah, they paid XX millions for a LH short reliever.  But I have heard and read a lot of experts say they're a force now.  Could even upset the Red Sox and Yankees, even.  I don't get it.  I mean, I know these ESPN guys are too smart to believe just beacuse the Jays threw some money around, they are dramatically better, right?



I will be honest, and say I thought the same thing as you with regard to Toronto.  But look just at Team ERA and Runs Scored by Offense last year (yah, I know pretty high level stuff), I was amazed to find that Tor, was pretty decent.  I mean look at the teams:

 Code:
  
Team     ERA      Runs Scored
Yankmes  4.52(22)   886 (2nd)
Bsox     4.74(24)   910 (1st)
Bjays    4.06(12)   775 (8th)


Now I know, that is a lot of runs scoring difference, but the Yankee's pitching doesn't look better this year (and might be worse), The Sox offense looks alot worse, but their pitching is better.  And Tor upgraded both hitting and pitching.  Now you can argue that they over paid, I will totally agree with that, but they are better, and the lost their best pitcher for the last two months to a broken leg (which is not an injury that ussually causes future issues).

So while I am not sure Tor is good enough to beat the Yankmes or the Bsox, I think they might be alot closer to them than they have been in recent times, and if the players believe, perhaps that is all they need to actucally knock one or both of them off.

Think about it, they were the 5th best ERA staff in the AL, having to face both the Yankmes and the Bsox more than anyone else (almost 20% of their games; 36/182).  To me that is pretty impressive since those were the two top scoring teams in baseball last year.
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