Author Topic: According to Diamond Mind simulations-Astros in seven! (Read 2005 times)

FLSnuffy · « **on:** October 22, 2005, 07:16:13 pm »

As we Floridians check computer tracking models a few times a day for huricane Wilma's possible approaches to S. FL. it would only seem appropriate to see what at least one WS simulation would predict.

Diamond Mind: Simulating the Series

Quote:

We simulated the series 100 times, with Houston winning 55. The outcomes were distributed as follows, with a progression from Houston dominance at the top to Chicago dominance at the bottom:

Houston in 4 -- 3%
Houston in 5 -- 19%
Houston in 6 -- 16%
Houston in 7 -- 17%
Chicago in 7 -- 12%
Chicago in 6 -- 16%
Chicago in 5 -- 13%
Chicago in 4 -- 3%

Although a Houston victory in five games was the single most common outcome, we don't believe that it is representative of the matchup. If we had run the simulations 1,000 times instead of 100 times, we're sure that Houston-in-5 would not have been in the top spot.

Houston in seven fits the data much better -- it reflects the fact that Houston won only 55 percent of the time overall, it's the second most common outcome, and it's in the center of the range of the most likely outcomes.

According to the computer, 'Stros will only win one at home and take 3 of 4 in Chicago. Ck out the stats.

After not being able to complete two innings in Game #2, Pettitte pitches 6 innings in a Game #6 SO to end up w/ an ERA of 9.00.

Here's hoping that, despite the computer projection, Scott will take the place of Rodriguez.

So far, the post season has had some classic games that no one--including a computer--could simulate.

It is interesting reading as we await the first pitch.
Snuff

Rod · « **Reply #1 on:** October 22, 2005, 07:20:32 pm »

I hope that computer factored in age.

Interesting stuff either way.

FLSnuffy · « **Reply #2 on:** October 22, 2005, 07:26:46 pm »

It is interesting reading the box scores. I am curious about how much running the Astros will do w/ a 75% success rate being recorded against the ChiSox.

According to the simulation, the ChiSox will have more success (7 SB in 7 attempts) than the 'Stros (5 of 7).

Let's see.

HurricaneDavid · « **Reply #3 on:** October 22, 2005, 07:36:33 pm »

Good, now I don't have to waste 21 hours of my life tuning in to watch. Where can I buy my World Series champs hat?

Greg in Minneapolis · « **Reply #4 on:** October 22, 2005, 07:44:22 pm »

Computers love the Astros...

The Link

FLSnuffy

Re: According to Diamond Mind simulations-Astros in seven!