Further proof that people don't get it

[MusicMan]

http://deadspin.com/5478470/houston-astros-the-charming-incompetence-of-ed-wade

How hard is it to understand the basic concept that Wade has been told to keep the major league team as competitive as possible while rebuilding the farm system??

To blame him for the current state of the farm system is as logical as... well, as giving him no credit for Howard, Rollins, Utley & co.

[Gizzmonic]

http://deadspin.com/5478470/houston-astros-the-charming-incompetence-of-ed-wade

How hard is it to understand the basic concept that Wade has been told to keep the major league team as competitive as possible while rebuilding the farm system??

To blame him for the current state of the farm system is as logical as... well, as giving him no credit for Howard, Rollins, Utley & co.

Will Leitch, the Perez Hilton of the sports world.  It's almost cute how he pretends to know anything about sports except for who Tiger was boning.  Oh, and for extra laffs, he's a 3rds fan.

[Bench]

I liked J Money BS' comment to the post:

So these are going to be more like Andy Rooney-like essays tangentially related to baseball teams than "previews." I see.

[Lurch]

Matt (I Still Use My Real Name on the Internets) Sussman:
"Their logo is perfect in that each of their stars are missing something obvious"

Nice!

[Ron Brand]

If everyone was an Astro fan it'd be harder to give them the finger when the Good Guys win.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

Ugh... after reading that all I can offer is, one cannot fix stupid.  The number of assumptions that Sabrematricians are the holders to all things baseball.  Wow.  Just wow.  They've stopped watching the game.  That's sad.  Or worse, they watch but don't understand what they are seeing. 

[matadorph]

A perfect example of why I hate sabermetrics. These fuckwits hold themselves in high regard because they've invested meaning into a gazillion little acronyms that take the beauty out of watching the game of baseball. Then, if you call them on it, they circle jerk each other and jizz about the meaning of BABIP and DIPS.

They fancy themselves independent, objective observers, but whenever the topic turns to Drayton McLane and Ed Wade, they are brainless automatons.

[sporadic]

Ugh... after reading that all I can offer is, one cannot fix stupid.  The number of assumptions that Sabrematricians are the holders to all things baseball.  Wow.  Just wow.  They've stopped watching the game.  That's sad.  Or worse, they watch but don't understand what they are seeing. 

In the big scheme of things, I know next to nothing about baseball.  The thing is that I once thought I did...I have since learned to shut up and listen before spouting off the first thing that entered my head (this ONLY applies to baseball discussions).  Sabremetrics is a very effective tool to "win over" the common idiot fan.  He must be right...he has all these cool numbers to prove his point!!  Stupid can be fixed...stupid just has to get out of its own way to do so.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

In the big scheme of things, I know next to nothing about baseball.  The thing is that I once thought I did...I have since learned to shut up and listen before spouting off the first thing that entered my head (this ONLY applies to baseball discussions).  Sabremetrics is a very effective tool to "win over" the common idiot fan.  He must be right...he has all these cool numbers to prove his point!!  Stupid can be fixed...stupid just has to get out of its own way to do so.

Here's the thing, I don't have an issue with statistics (it's something I did, as a profession, for a number of years).  But baseball stats, like any measurement, can be over-analyzed quickly.  There is always some half-wit who thinks the measurement means something it doesn't even begin to touch on (methodology wise).  It's very critical that you know EXACTLY what a measurement involves.  And then you also have to look at each individual instance measured, to infer any conclusion you require.  This process, as should be apparent, is HIGHLY subjective or,in other words, OPINION based.

[Guinness]

I don't know anything about statistics as a science, so I could be way off base, but it seems to me that baseball stats are more a measure of past performance rather than a predictor of the future, sort of like the difference between prophecy and prediction.    Wouldn't you have to have more data than just hits vs at bats to predict how a particular human would react in a certain situation?  And even then, giving the subjectiveness of human nature, would you have a huge +/- ?

[Rebel Jew]

http://deadspin.com/5478470/houston-astros-the-charming-incompetence-of-ed-wade

How hard is it to understand the basic concept that Wade has been told to keep the major league team as competitive as possible while rebuilding the farm system??

To blame him for the current state of the farm system is as logical as... well, as giving him no credit for Howard, Rollins, Utley & co.

i just read this.  i thought it was some complex sarcasm at first, until i realized it wasn't.  the thing that doesn't make sense is that anybody who follows baseball closely, sabermetric guy or not, can tell you that the astros have vastly improved their farm system in just the couple of years wade has been in charge, and appear to be basing their future on it.  the 1 & 2 year veteran contracts are clearly stop-gaps out of necessity, and aren't long enough or large enough to hamstring the club in any way.

just a bizarre article, and the 'someday the nerds will rule the world' tone makes it all the more so.

[hostros7]

I don't know anything about statistics as a science, so I could be way off base, but it seems to me that baseball stats are more a measure of past performance rather than a predictor of the future, sort of like the difference between prophecy and prediction.    Wouldn't you have to have more data than just hits vs at bats to predict how a particular human would react in a certain situation?  And even then, giving the subjectiveness of human nature, would you have a huge +/- ?

It gets better than this point even.  One of the "famous" statisical "think problems" involves Roberto Clemente's batting average in 1970.  Basically, the argument goes that everyone else's batting average in the league is a better predictor of Clemente's future batting average than anything Roberto he himself has done through X% of the season.  I work in a financial type firm where this comes up.  Not a math geek, I don't have a theoretical stance on the issue, but it's just pretty asinine from a variety of different standpoints.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

I don't know anything about statistics as a science, so I could be way off base, but it seems to me that baseball stats are more a measure of past performance rather than a predictor of the future, sort of like the difference between prophecy and prediction.    Wouldn't you have to have more data than just hits vs at bats to predict how a particular human would react in a certain situation?  And even then, giving the subjectiveness of human nature, would you have a huge +/- ?

statistical measurements will ALWAYS be descriptive.  If used properly, they are used to identify and understand process/production inefficiencies etc... so that they may be corrected.  I believe pharmaceutical manufacturers do "studies", but that involves far more than statistical measurements.  Often times, going so far as to quantify expert opinions on effects of drugs etc...

In the end, it always boils down to past information used to make future decisions.  In no way can past performance serve as a guarantee of future results.  That would be as bad as the gambler's paradox of "being due".  It's speculation, pure and simple.  Consider it, at best, an educated guess. 

I've come to the conclusion that Bill James has distanced himself from this organization for a reason, acknowledging when he was hired by the Red Sox that statistical analysis is only PART of the solution.  You still have to have those expert opinions factored into the equation.  Are all expert opinions equal?  Absolutely not.  Are the best experts ALWAYS right?  Still, no.  Anyway... I won't lie, I do enjoy reading the box scores and the stat lines from a game.  I also like to watch the actual game.  I've learned to identify things from the actual play on the field that I never understood, prior to joining this community.  The one thing I will say, it has made sites like ESPN (or even ESPN on tv), FOX Sports Net, and other similar coverage very challenging to watch at times.  I realize I'm only a novice/amateur baseball observer.  But some of the national baseball guys (Joe Buck, I'm looking squarely at you) are just dimwits when it comes to baseball knowledge.  So, it's not hard to understand why a stat head might get carried away with their absolute certainty.  Not when the voices they hear are the morons given a microphone on the national level. 

[subnuclear]

just a bizarre article, and the 'someday the nerds will rule the world' tone makes it all the more so.

He totally called out the Great State's slide rule skills, too.  He better not pull that shit around my dad!

I don't know anything about statistics as a science, so I could be way off base, but it seems to me that baseball stats are more a measure of past performance rather than a predictor of the future, sort of like the difference between prophecy and prediction.    Wouldn't you have to have more data than just hits vs at bats to predict how a particular human would react in a certain situation?  And even then, giving the subjectiveness of human nature, would you have a huge +/- ?

Statistics aren't deterministic, but large samples of data can reveal systematic advantages certain players have over others.  Both Lance Berkman and Hunter Pence  can have great and terrible at-bats, but there are things that Lance does and is born with that makes him a better hitter overall and that shows up in the statistics without having to pin down exactly what those things are.  An experienced baseball person can often tell you the same information sooner and tell you exactly what the difference is, but statistics can be a useful shorthand for that information. 

[moriartp]

He totally called out the Great State's slide rule skills, too.

These men would like a word with him.

[BizidyDizidy]

statistical measurements will ALWAYS be descriptive.  If used properly, they are used to identify and understand process/production inefficiencies etc... so that they may be corrected.  I believe pharmaceutical manufacturers do "studies", but that involves far more than statistical measurements.  Often times, going so far as to quantify expert opinions on effects of drugs etc...

In the end, it always boils down to past information used to make future decisions.  In no way can past performance serve as a guarantee of future results.  That would be as bad as the gambler's paradox of "being due".  It's speculation, pure and simple.  Consider it, at best, an educated guess. 

I've come to the conclusion that Bill James has distanced himself from this organization for a reason, acknowledging when he was hired by the Red Sox that statistical analysis is only PART of the solution.  You still have to have those expert opinions factored into the equation.  Are all expert opinions equal?  Absolutely not.  Are the best experts ALWAYS right?  Still, no.  Anyway... I won't lie, I do enjoy reading the box scores and the stat lines from a game.  I also like to watch the actual game.  I've learned to identify things from the actual play on the field that I never understood, prior to joining this community.  The one thing I will say, it has made sites like ESPN (or even ESPN on tv), FOX Sports Net, and other similar coverage very challenging to watch at times.  I realize I'm only a novice/amateur baseball observer.  But some of the national baseball guys (Joe Buck, I'm looking squarely at you) are just dimwits when it comes to baseball knowledge.  So, it's not hard to understand why a stat head might get carried away with their absolute certainty.  Not when the voices they hear are the morons given a microphone on the national level. 

This is all even assumes you believe in induction.

[ferret]

There is no mystery here.  Statistics allow people to play fantasy games, people will pay to play fantasy games.  Companies make money on people who pay to play fantasy games.  Only a perfect moron would think they're doing anything else. 

[JimR]

There is no mystery here.  Statistics allow people to play fantasy games, people will pay to play fantasy games.  Companies make money on people who pay to play fantasy games.  Only a perfect moron would think they're doing anything else. 

and very few of us morons are perfect

[MusicMan]

and very few of us morons are perfect

But I'm trying to get there.

[austro]

Only a perfect moron would think they're doing anything else. 

[ruthless people]And perfect morons are rare...[/ruthless people]

[S.P. Rodriguez]

These men would like a word with him.

I didn't want to point out the obvious regarding that comment.  There's no value in rebutting a statement like that.  Ignorance serves as it's own affirmation.

[Outlawscotty]

I thought Deadspin was a sort of satire website not to be taken seriously anyway.  At least I thought it used to be.  Not Onion crazy, but almost.

[Randy Watson]

Wade came in with a depleted farm system on a team with 3 players taking up what, about $45-50 million a year in payroll.  He, or someone, has convince Drayton to spend money on scouting and signing players.

I am optimistic about our future because of Wade/Heck.  He is digging us out of a hole IMO.

[juliogotay]

Justice's take http://blogs.chron.com/sportsjustice/archives/2010/02/ed_wade_has_don.html

[AtascAstro]

Justice's take http://blogs.chron.com/sportsjustice/archives/2010/02/ed_wade_has_don.html

Even when he's right, you've still got to wade through waist deep schtick and self-importance to get to it.

[hostros7]

Even when he's right, you've still got to wade through waist deep schtick and self-importance to get to it.

When you flipflop as much as he does, you're going to be right some of the time.

[juliogotay]

When you flipflop as much as he does, you're going to be right some of the time.

First losing streak of the season, maybe even in ST, and he'll do his 180%.

[MusicMan]

First losing streak of the season, maybe even in ST, and he'll do his 180%.

Can we apply Olympic judging standards to his spins?

Does anyone even understand the Olympic judging standards?

[MRaup]

Can we apply Olympic judging standards to his spins?

Does anyone even understand the Olympic judging standards?

[Russian Judge] TERRIBLE! [/Russian Judge]