Reasonable Expectations for the Houston Astros - April/May 2008

[Noe]

Okay, it's kind of silly to do this but what the heck, you only live once and since I'm not a Clark but a Pope, the damage that will be inflicted on me should be minimal.  Right?  Ahum... right?!?!  M'kay, let's do this any way.  I was thinking what would be a reasonable expectation that the team could have for the next two months (April/May) that would drive the type of changes usually made right after Memorial Day.  Here is what I would think would be the reasonable expectations from the current team (based on the Frankensteinian effort to put together this team from many different parts):

1. April: I think the Astros expect to be somewhere below .500 and sitting in fourth or third place in the division if lucky.  You can't expect the team to gel right away, so as long as they're not 20 games below .500, you don't panic at 10 or less games below .500 at this point.  You may even come to expect it from a team finding itself.

2. May: I think the Astros expect to be somewhere near .500 if not at .500 if all things break the way they think they will.  500 baseball by Memorial Day is pretty good for a team made up of so many different parts.  But it's probably not unreasonable given the quality of those parts, primarily the addition of Tejada to the middle of this lineup.

3. April/May Expectation for the Pitching:  At least one starter will step out from the pack and take ownership of the #2 spot by Memorial Day.  Who that will be is left to your imagination, but I think they (the Astros) believe one will definitely step out by then.  If not, that will be priority #1 in the trade scenarios they will start to develop.

4. April/May Expectations for the Offense: At least one of the two top of the lineup hitters should establish themselves as a good OBP guy.  Bourn?  Matsui? Pence?  I dunno who, but one of them better do it by Memorial Day, you don't want to think about this being a problem area for the team.  I also think they fully expect the middle of the lineup to be solid.  However, Carlos Lee said something the other day that smacks of very intuitive and dead spot on as a warning to the top of the lineup guys: "We can't keep depending on homeruns to be how we win games".  Eggszactly, the expectation should be that this team should start to establish ways of manufacturing runs easier than they've shown to date.  Chicas dig the long ball, yes.  But by Memorial Day, better have more than the long ball as a feature of this offense.

5. April/May Expectation for the Defense: I think they realize that by Memorial Day, the up the middle defense will be head and shoulders better than last year.  The expectation will be that it is one of the top defensive teams in the league.  At least top third in the league.  The corners for this team are a bit shaky, but if the up the middle defense is rock solid, this will go a ways to help keep the team in every game.

6. April/May Expectation for the Bench: The guys who are the late inning hitters, early inning hitters, et. al. from the list of former starters on the bench should flesh out.  I believe they know that they have, other than Tomas Perez, no real experienced bench/utility player.  Maybe Blum, who looks more like a platoon guy to me (also Loretta).  I think they will evaluate Cheo and Erstad by then as either viable bench guys or guys who struggled to make the transition in their game.  This will probably be a position they may consider strengthening by the time Memorial Day rolls around.

[Twoniner]

  Pretty good expectations.   I'd disagree with the need for someone to be "the #2 guy", and the Astros don't have the ammo to acquire that level of starter if they wanted... another decent arm for the pen  though....   I'm not really sold on the gelling talk from Drayton and company either.  The team hasn't been the fastest of starters with familiar faces in the past.  Probably the two biggest "disappointments" 10 games into the season are Roy and Pence.   I can't blame the new clubhouse on bringing them down, when Berkman has found the inner strength to play well without Chris Burke around.      My main observations are that the team should play well as usual at home and against most lefties, and most fly ball righties.   Sinker-slider type guys could be a challenge, and playing in big parks where the power is negated and Lee is roaming in left field.

[VirtualBob]

  Pretty good expectations.   I'd disagree with the need for someone to be "the #2 guy", and the Astros don't have the ammo to acquire that level of starter if they wanted... another decent arm for the pen  though....   I'm not really sold on the gelling talk from Drayton and company either.  The team hasn't been the fastest of starters with familiar faces in the past.  Probably the two biggest "disappointments" 10 games into the season are Roy and Pence.   I can't blame the new clubhouse on bringing them down, when Berkman has found the inner strength to play well without Chris Burke around.      My main observations are that the team should play well as usual at home and against most lefties, and most fly ball righties.   Sinker-slider type guys could be a challenge, and playing in big parks where the power is negated and Lee is roaming in left field.

I guess I would want to add that this wonderful bullpen the 'stros put together in the off-season had better start pitching like the games count.  Soon.

[JimR]

  Pretty good expectations.   I'd disagree with the need for someone to be "the #2 guy", and the Astros don't have the ammo to acquire that level of starter if they wanted... another decent arm for the pen  though....   I'm not really sold on the gelling talk from Drayton and company either.  The team hasn't been the fastest of starters with familiar faces in the past.  Probably the two biggest "disappointments" 10 games into the season are Roy and Pence.   I can't blame the new clubhouse on bringing them down, when Berkman has found the inner strength to play well without Chris Burke around.      My main observations are that the team should play well as usual at home and against most lefties, and most fly ball righties.   Sinker-slider type guys could be a challenge, and playing in big parks where the power is negated and Lee is roaming in left field.

you really think that Lee's defense is a main problem for this team? wow.

[juliogotay]

I guess I would want to add that this wonderful bullpen the 'stros put together in the off-season had better start pitching like the games count.  Soon.

I don't think this bullpen is better. It's lacking some of the live arms of the past like Dotel, Lidge (the early years when batters chased the slider) and Qualls when he had command of his pitches. More of a guile pitching style and their mistakes are very hittable. An exception to this is Wright. Very exciting young guy. Glad they kept him.

[geezerdonk]

I don't think baseball fans have reasonable expectations.
My expectation is that the Astros will win every game.
Each time I watch them play, I expect them to win.
When they don't, I am incredulous.
("How can this be?" I ask myself. "I don't know" I reply.)
That aside and notwithstanding their current last in the league record, I like the team and its prospects. The team seems to be playing sound fundamental baseball and playing with enthusiasm. This reflects well on Cooper. It looks like he is doing a good job preparing the team.
There is too much talent for the record not to improve and for them not to make a run at the post season. If not, they are still going to be fun to watch with a solid 1-8 lineup and some exciting players. When they get Matsui and Wigginton back and they get used to playing together for a month or so we should have a better idea of what to expect for the rest of the season.

[JimR]

I don't think baseball fans have reasonable expectations.
My expectation is that the Astros will win every game.
Each time I watch them play, I expect them to win.
When they don't, I am incredulous.
("How can this be?" I ask myself. "I don't know" I reply.)
That aside and notwithstanding their current last in the league record, I like the team and its prospects. The team seems to be playing sound fundamental baseball and playing with enthusiasm. This reflects well on Cooper. It looks like he is doing a good job preparing the team.
There is too much talent for the record not to improve and for them not to make a run at the post season. If not, they are still going to be fun to watch with a solid 1-8 lineup and some exciting players. When they get Matsui and Wigginton back and they get used to playing together for a month or so we should have a better idea of what to expect for the rest of the season.

right. this team has not been intact yet.

[JimR]

Okay, it's kind of silly to do this but what the heck, you only live once and since I'm not a Clark but a Pope, the damage that will be inflicted on me should be minimal.  Right?  Ahum... right?!?!  M'kay, let's do this any way.  I was thinking what would be a reasonable expectation that the team could have for the next two months (April/May) that would drive the type of changes usually made right after Memorial Day.  Here is what I would think would be the reasonable expectations from the current team (based on the Frankensteinian effort to put together this team from many different parts):

1. April: I think the Astros expect to be somewhere below .500 and sitting in fourth or third place in the division if lucky.  You can't expect the team to gel right away, so as long as they're not 20 games below .500, you don't panic at 10 or less games below .500 at this point.  You may even come to expect it from a team finding itself.

2. May: I think the Astros expect to be somewhere near .500 if not at .500 if all things break the way they think they will.  500 baseball by Memorial Day is pretty good for a team made up of so many different parts.  But it's probably not unreasonable given the quality of those parts, primarily the addition of Tejada to the middle of this lineup.

3. April/May Expectation for the Pitching:  At least one starter will step out from the pack and take ownership of the #2 spot by Memorial Day.  Who that will be is left to your imagination, but I think they (the Astros) believe one will definitely step out by then.  If not, that will be priority #1 in the trade scenarios they will start to develop.

4. April/May Expectations for the Offense: At least one of the two top of the lineup hitters should establish themselves as a good OBP guy.  Bourn?  Matsui? Pence?  I dunno who, but one of them better do it by Memorial Day, you don't want to think about this being a problem area for the team.  I also think they fully expect the middle of the lineup to be solid.  However, Carlos Lee said something the other day that smacks of very intuitive and dead spot on as a warning to the top of the lineup guys: "We can't keep depending on homeruns to be how we win games".  Eggszactly, the expectation should be that this team should start to establish ways of manufacturing runs easier than they've shown to date.  Chicas dig the long ball, yes.  But by Memorial Day, better have more than the long ball as a feature of this offense.

5. April/May Expectation for the Defense: I think they realize that by Memorial Day, the up the middle defense will be head and shoulders better than last year.  The expectation will be that it is one of the top defensive teams in the league.  At least top third in the league.  The corners for this team are a bit shaky, but if the up the middle defense is rock solid, this will go a ways to help keep the team in every game.

6. April/May Expectation for the Bench: The guys who are the late inning hitters, early inning hitters, et. al. from the list of former starters on the bench should flesh out.  I believe they know that they have, other than Tomas Perez, no real experienced bench/utility player.  Maybe Blum, who looks more like a platoon guy to me (also Loretta).  I think they will evaluate Cheo and Erstad by then as either viable bench guys or guys who struggled to make the transition in their game.  This will probably be a position they may consider strengthening by the time Memorial Day rolls around.

excellt post. #4 is SO true.