A Journey to Baseball’s Alternate Universe

[mihoba]

Seems we have a couple of scientific type Op-Ed Contributors at the NY Times who forgot to simulate heart, desire, and dedication to a craft. The subject is Hall of Famer Joe DiMaggio's record 56 game hitting streak, questioning why it has never even been seriously challenged.

In a fit of scientific skepticism, we decided to calculate how unlikely Joltin’ Joe’s achievement really was. Using a comprehensive collection of baseball statistics from 1871 to 2005, we simulated the entire history of baseball 10,000 times in a computer. In essence, we programmed the computer to construct an enormous set of parallel baseball universes, all with the same players but subject to the vagaries of chance in each one.

Forty-two percent of the simulated baseball histories have a streak of DiMaggio’s length or longer. You shouldn’t be too surprised that someone, at some time in the history of the game, accomplished what DiMaggio did.

[Lurch]

Seems we have a couple of scientific type Op-Ed Contributors at the NY Times who forgot to simulate heart, desire, and dedication to a craft. The subject is Hall of Famer Joe DiMaggio's record 56 game hitting streak, questioning why it has never even been seriously challenged.

Fortunately for them, there's no comments section to point out the idiocy of assuming game #1 and game #56 have no difference in pressure.  The consistency (which their approach assumes is the norm) is what makes it so special.

[drew corleone]

In how many of those simulations did Don Denkinger miss that call at first base? The Jakes want to know if they'll be able to put up a Faux World Series banner at Busch.

[Gizzmonic]

A baseball alternate universe?  Do the Cubs have a dynasty?

Seems we have a couple of scientific type Op-Ed Contributors at the NY Times who forgot to simulate heart, desire, and dedication to a craft. The subject is Hall of Famer Joe DiMaggio's record 56 game hitting streak, questioning why it has never even been seriously challenged.

[austro]

A baseball alternate universe?  Do the Cubs have a dynasty?

No. Some things are simply impossible.

[pravata]

"...we simulated the entire history of baseball 10,000 times" and came to the conclusion that something that has happened once should have happened about every 3 years.  I think they've missed a variable.   As Terry Francona said last night on the 60 Minutes segment about how Bill James led the Red Sox to 2 World Series wins, "This game's played by people."

[Limey]

A baseball alternate universe?  Do the Cubs have a dynasty?

Nope.  In the 10,000 sims of the entire history of baseball, the Cubs still didn't win a World Series after 1908.

[Trey]

"...we simulated the entire history of baseball 10,000 times" and came to the conclusion that something that has happened once should have happened about every 3 years.  I think they've missed a variable.   

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you or the article (or both), but I don't think they're saying it happens in 42% of the seasons.  In the 10,000 times they ran the history of baseball it happened in 42% of the simulations

[BizidyDizidy]

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you or the article (or both), but I don't think they're saying it happens in 42% of the seasons.  In the 10,000 times they ran the history of baseball it happened in 42% of the simulations

In other words, it's actually slightly unlikely that it's happened at all. Which seems right.

[pravata]

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you or the article (or both), but I don't think they're saying it happens in 42% of the seasons.  In the 10,000 times they ran the history of baseball it happened in 42% of the simulations

I see, so in 10,000 alternate baseball universes, in the history of 4,200 of them, there is at least one DiMaggio type streak. 

[homer]

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you or the article (or both), but I don't think they're saying it happens in 42% of the seasons.  In the 10,000 times they ran the history of baseball it happened in 42% of the simulations

60% of the time it works every time.

[BizidyDizidy]

I see, so in 10,000 alternate baseball universes, in the history of 4,200 of them, there is at least one DiMaggio type streak. 

That's what I got. No word on in how many of those he bagged Marilyn.

[Gizzmonic]

Maybe the Earth-2 Joe DiMaggio is a little more happy-go-lucky.  And maybe he married Angela Lansbury instead of Marilyn Monroe.  Oh, and he has a goatee.

That's what I got. No word on in how many of those he bagged Marilyn.

[Noe]

Maybe the Earth-2 Joe DiMaggio is a little more happy-go-lucky.  And maybe he married Angela Lansbury instead of Marilyn Monroe.  Oh, and he has a goatee.

And maybe he doesn't own an Italian restraurant and sell coffee machines.  Instead he's a health food nut that owns a vegan tofu stand on 54th street and he sells power juicers on the side.  Say... aren't we talking Joe DiMaggio becomes Jack La Lanne in the other world?

[Bill McLuggage]

A short list of the alternate universes where the streak did not happen:

1. The Americans lost the revolution, baseball games instead take place over 7-10 days and involve wearing girl's sweaters.
2. The Golden Gate Bridge is actually purple.  San Francisco doesn't attract a large enough population and the Giants fold instead of move.
3.  Biffco runs baseball.  It is not financially or physically sound to go against the betting line.
4.  A LAND WHERE APES EVOLVED FROM MAN???

[Limey]

A short list of the alternate universes where the streak did not happen:

1. The Americans lost the revolution, baseball games instead take place over 7-10 days and involve wearing girl's sweaters.
2. The Golden Gate Bridge is actually purple.  San Francisco doesn't attract a large enough population and the Giants fold instead of move.
3.  Biffco runs baseball.  It is not financially or physically sound to go against the betting line.
4.  A LAND WHERE APES EVOLVED FROM MAN???

5.  A land where an all-seeing eye umpires all the games, and nobody argues balls and strikes.

[Phil_in_CS]

That's what I got. No word on in how many of those he bagged Marilyn.

Significantly more people bagged Marilyn than hit in 56 straight.

[Limey]

Significantly more people bagged Marilyn than hit in 56 straight.

FIFY