2004 In Review Another year, another worthless season for the Rox. Thanks in part to Coors Field, and in part because they suck, the Rockies? pitchers allowed more runs than anyone else in the NL. Shawn Estes and Jason Jennings finished 1-2 in runs allowed. Shawn Chacon led the NL in blown saves and was 2nd in relief losses. The offense, despite the steroid shot that playing in thin air provides, finished 4th in the NL in scoring. A respectable finish until you look at how poor they were away from Coors.
There was some good news?the first rate melt down of the D-Backs meant the Rockies finished ahead of the D-Backs in the standings for the first time since Arizona?s first year of existence. MexiMullet led the NL in RBI, despite hitting a cool .218 on the road. Todd Helton continued his march towards Cooperstown. And Jeff Francis was one of the best pitchers in the minors last year. Could the Rockies be on the verge of their first true pitching success story? Stay tuned?
2004 Offseason in Review Burnitz and Castilla are in Chicago and Washington, making far too much money for what they?ll actually produce. Royce Clayton left for Arizona, which if anyone can figure out why the D-backs would want him, please let me know. Offensively the Rox are going with a youth movement, to see if players like JD Closser, Garret Atkins, and Brad Hawpe can produce. Best thing the Rockies did all season was to let the older guys go.
Catchers Charles Johnson got about half the ABs last year and went 236/350/430. JD Closser figures to get the majority of playing time in 2005. He hit an unimpressive 299/384/440 in AAA Colorado Springs last year as a 24-year old.
First Base With Albert Pujols becoming a 1B, Todd Helton is no longer the NL?s best. However, he still produces numbers, whether at home or on the road, versus righties or lefties. I?d feel sorry for a guy with his talent being stuck on a go-nowhere team, but his salary makes him nearly untradeable and its tough feeling sorry for a guy making $15M+.
Second Base Former Astros farmhand Aaron Miles had a busy season for the Rockies, getting 522 ABs and nearly hitting .300. But that?s all he did. Walked just 29 times and was a poor 12 of 19 in the stolen base department. Rockies will need to upgrade this position if they are serious about fielding a .500 team.
Shortstop With Royce Clayton gone, the job looks to go to Clint Barmes, who hit 328/376/505 in Colorado Springs. He hit .282 with the Rockies late last year when he was up for his cup of coffee. May split some time with Luis Gonzales, who may also spell Miles a bit more this year. Gonzales went 292/330/469 last year in 322 ABs.
Third Base Bye-bye Vinny C, hello Garrett Atkins. Finally here?s a guy who hit real well at Colorado Springs in 2004?366/434/578. Then continued that during his brief stay in the majors?357/434/536 in just 28 ABs. Looking for an ?under the radar? Rookie Of the Year candidate? Here?s your man.
Outfield Matt Holiday, Preston Wilson and Brad Hawpe. Holiday somehow avoided AAA last season, making the jump from AA in 2003 to the big club in 2004. How?d he do? 290/349/487. Not bad for a rookie just up from AA. Brad Hawpe was another guy who spent most of 2004 in AAA Colorado Springs, where he hit 322/384/652. Finally, some numbers like you would hope to see from a prospect. Preston Wilson is supposedly healthy, but I?ll believe that when I see it
Starters Joe Kennedy, Jason Jennings, Shawn Chacon, Jeff Francis and Jamey Wright. Kennedy was just fine his first year in Colorado, putting up a fine 3.66 ERA in 160+ innings. Jennings is getting progressively worse each year (his ERA has gone from 4.52 to 5.12 to 5.51). Lefties crushed him to the tune of 340/442/565. Chacon is making the transition back to starter, where he was fairly effective in 2003 (4.60 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP). Last year he was putrid walking nearly a batter an innings, which will get your ERA up over 7.00 even if you don?t play at mile high altitudes. Jeff Francis is one of the names you see at the top of most Prospects To Watch lists. He had a fine year in AA/AAA and didn?t look that bad in his brief appearance last year as a Rockie (nearly a K per IP). Jamey Wright is garbage.
Bullpen Chin-hui Tsao is your new closer for the Rox. He is note worthy since he pitched in 9+ innings at each of the levels of pro ball in 2004 (A, AA, AAA, majors). In 9 innings at the major league level he K?d 11 and walked just 1. Don?t look for that to hold up over an entire season. All things considered, Brian Fuentes is not a bad setup man (an ERA of about 4.00 over a 3-year span in Colorado).
Outlook Probably the worst team in the NL West in 2005, though if Green/Glaus break down the D-Backs could give them a run for their money. Success in 2005 won?t be determined on the W-L record, but rather how the young?uns (Francis, Tsao, Atkins, Hawpe, Barmes, Closser and Holliday) perform. Hopefully the management lets the kids sink or swim, and doesn?t panic if the kids start off 4 for 47 at the plate or something. Best case, these kids develop and grow together, like the Twins of recent years. Worst case, these kids show just enough promise to keep the kids around longer than they should?sort of like the Astros and Tim Redding.
Fantasy Projections Assumes an NL-only league, 10 teams, 5x5 rules. Avg/HR/RBI/R/SB. W/K/ERA/WHIP/Saves
Closser?260/5/45/35/0. Could be a nice player to snag if the team goes with youth over the expensive Charles Johnson. But that is a risk not worth taking on draft day. Both he and CJ are $1. Maybe you?ll get lucky and the one you take gets 400+ ABs.
Helton?335/33/105/115/5. If he had a better supporting cast, he?d be up there with Beltran and Pujols as $40 players. As it is, he?s worth about $35-$37. The days of 40+ HRs are probably over.
Miles?285/5/45/85/15. A $10 if he gets most of the ABs at 2B. Penciled in as the Rox leadoff hitter, he?ll score some runs but he?s not likely to get 600+ ABs because, well, he?s not that good. Stop the bidding at $8.
Barmes?270/10/55/40/10. Won?t be the day in, day out SS. Keep the bidding around $5.
Atkins?280/20/85/65/0. Young kid who?ll get his share of ABs and RBI opportunities hitting 6th or so for the Rox. Good upside for you guys in keeper leagues. Worth $12 but has a real nice upside. In keeper leagues he?ll go for $15-$17.
Holliday?275/20/80/70/0. Pretty much what you saw from Atkins, though he?ll go for less because he?ll count as an OFer. $10, with $12-14 being the range in keeper leagues.
Wilson?265/15/65/50/5. I can?t see him getting more than 400 ABs. As such, I?d stop the bidding around $10. If you think he?s goof for 500+ ABs, he?ll sock more than 20 HRs and will be the beneficiary of Helton?s .450 OBP and drive in 100 runs. Go up to $20 if you think he?ll be healthy.
Hawpe?285/20/85/75/0. Here?s the guy who could become the next great Coors sensation. By no means a great hitter but will bat 4th or 5th (he?s shown greater power in the minors than either Holiday or Atkins) and as a lefty should get to take full advantage of the RCF jet stream Coors is famous for. $15 but you keeper league guys may want to approach $18. All things considered, I?d rather bid $20 on Hawpe than on PWilson.
Kennedy?10/120/4.25/1.36/0. Worth about $2. Upside is he gets traded.
Jennings?8/135/4.75/1.39/0. $1. Only if you need innings and you can put him on the bench when pitching at Coors.
Chacon?7/110/5.00/1.41/0. $1. If you wanna gamble you can take him and think he?ll go back to closing games if Tsao fails. May not be a bad gamble for a buck.
Francis?9/145/4.65/1.35/0. $2, we?ll find out if the kid can do it in Coors. Keeper leagues may bid him up to $3 or $4. Will get you some Ks.
Wright?4/65/5.05/1.45/0. $0. Stay away.
Tsao?3/45/4.75/1.35/25. $12, the only Rockie pitcher you should really be targeting, only you have a thing for Jeff Francis.
