Jeremy Affledt, too pricey?

[pravata]

Back in Dec., before the thread went south, we discussed the question when he was asking 4 years 16 million Link Here's what he got yesterday from the Reds, one-year, $3 million. The Reds were interested in him because he wants to try to start. Link

These are the types of deals Billy Beane and Ed Wade are trying to avoid.  However, only Beane is being touted as a genius. Link

[mrpink]

Color me confused.  Are you saying they're trying to avoid the 4-year or 1-year types of deals?

[Jacksonian]

Color me confused.  Are you saying they're trying to avoid the 4-year or 1-year types of deals?

I'd say both.  The 4 year and $16mil deal and the 1 year deal for an experiment on a guy with a poor record starting.

[pravata]

Color me confused.  Are you saying they're trying to avoid the 4-year or 1-year types of deals?

Like the article on Beane says, these maybes "will be somebody else's to sign, repair, pay, hope for and live with."  The Reds are hoping Affeldt can start.  Affeldt was hoping to find a team that would give him a chance to start.  Good luck to them.   So far Wade isn't signing those types.   

[mrpink]

I see your point and I'm not bothered at all that Wade didn't get this guy, but 3mil for one year for a guy like affeldt as a starter hardly seems like a gamble.  He's not hurt and if it doesn't work you could throw him in the pen where he had a lot of success last year.

[pravata]

I see your point and I'm not bothered at all that Wade didn't get this guy, but 3mil for one year for a guy like affeldt as a starter hardly seems like a gamble.  He's not hurt and if it doesn't work you could throw him in the pen where he had a lot of success last year.

It wouldn't have caught my eye had I not seen the article about Beane.   He's seen as shrewd for not taking this type of gamble.  While it's understandable that Wade didn't pursue Affeldt, at first because of the 4 year contract request, and now it seems because Affeldt had someone willing to give him a chance to start, there is that little tug, that your post hints at, that asks why wouldn't Wade take a chance?  OK, maybe not with Affeldt, but how about Bartolo Colon, Josh Fogg, Livan Hernandez, Freddy Garcia, Kyle Lohse, Steve Trachsel...?

[mrpink]

Whoops, didn't mean to tug anything on this forum. 

The idea of seeing any of those guys on that list, outside of Garcia, in an Astros uniform next year makes me more than a little nauseous.  It just seems strange to me that Cincinnati was able to sign a guy who was initally demanding so much, just by offering him a chance to compete for a spot in the rotation.  I wonder how well known it was that he had a real desire to start.

[pravata]

Whoops, didn't mean to tug anything on this forum. 

The idea of seeing any of those guys on that list, outside of Garcia, in an Astros uniform next year makes me more than a little nauseous.  It just seems strange to me that Cincinnati was able to sign a guy who was initally demanding so much, just by offering him a chance to compete for a spot in the rotation.  I wonder how well known it was that he had a real desire to start.

There's no shortage of opinions that Wade should try to get somebody from the list of unattached starters that a team would have to  "repair, pay, hope for and live with."   There's several teams in need of pitching who have decided not to even bother.  These teams are drawing praise.  When Wade doesn't do it it's strange?

[VirtualBob]

There's no shortage of opinions that Wade should try to get somebody from the list of unattached starters that a team would have to  "repair, pay, hope for and live with."   There's several teams in need of pitching who have decided not to even bother.  These teams are drawing praise.  When Wade doesn't do it it's strange?

Both strange and premature.  The correct approach is to wait until some other team has shelled out $3-4mm each for about a dozen of these has beens that never were, then keep waiting until one of them actually has a little success.  At that point, everyone pile on Wade for failing to see the obvious ... why couldn't he see that <fill in the blank later> was worth a gamble?

[pravata]

Both strange and premature.  The correct approach is to wait until some other team has shelled out $3-4mm each for about a dozen of these has beens that never were, then keep waiting until one of them actually has a little success.  At that point, everyone pile on Wade for failing to see the obvious ... why couldn't he see that <fill in the blank later> was worth a gamble?

Wade busted his crystal ball when he tried to scry whether the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform would chose to investigate Miguel Tejada.

[Gizzmonic]

Wade busted his crystal ball when he tried to scry whether the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform would chose to investigate Miguel Tejada.

Scry, eh? I just learned a new word!  Pravata (aka The Last Sane Man) has done it again!

[pravata]

Scry, eh? I just learned a new word!  Pravata (aka The Last Sane Man) has done it again!

I got a whole sack full of useless words I use once a year.

[GreatBagwellsBeard]

I got a whole sack full of useless words I use once a year.

Eh.  That's what the Void is for, right?

Jerry C over at ESPN breaks down some of the availables, and once again mentions the Astros with regard to Hernandez and Benson.  The point is made that Benson's infamous 70 mph workout was not at full health or effort.

If he's healthier than that workout implied, then Benson's ceiling could be higher than Hernandez's in terms of effectiveness.  But in terms of IP and durability, I'd take Hernandez every day and twice on Sundays.

[Froback]

Eh.  That's what the Void is for, right?

Jerry C over at ESPN breaks down some of the availables, and once again mentions the Astros with regard to Hernandez and Benson.  The point is made that Benson's infamous 70 mph workout was not at full health or effort.

If he's healthier than that workout implied, then Benson's ceiling could be higher than Hernandez's in terms of effectiveness.  But in terms of IP and durability, I'd take Hernandez every day and twice on Sundays.

Well if you are talking about ceilings, than I think it a no brainer that Benson's ceiling is higher than Hernandez.  But the fact that it is alot more iffy because while Hernandez is getting old (and fat), he is not coming back from an injury.  Any time a player is coming back from injury there is a high risk attached.  Sometimes it pays off, most times it doesn't.

As for Benson's workout, I think while he was not at full health, I would imagine he was giving full effort.  This was his one major demonstration to teams that he was worth signing and taking on the risk as he comes back from injury.  The better he does during it, the better his options are both with choice of teams and contracts.  So while he wasn't able to show he was fully healthy and do all that you would want a pitcher to be able to do, I doubt his effort was not 100%.   If it were (or that was the perception) it would torpedo any offer he might get because who wants a guy coming back from serious surgery who isn't giving full effort?  See my point?

At this point in the whole "who is going to start for the Astros" debate, I am now leaning toward the "they are not going to add anyone else" side than any other.  This is all in respect to when they open Spring Training.