Stark: Lidge, Black Outs, Jennings

[Lurch]

Good read on several topics of interest

[pravata]

Good read on several topics of interest

That is a fantastic article.  Lidge 101, required reading for everyone who wants to post one word about Lidge.  Garner was kinda joking around about when the Tigers fired him but here he says "So here's what I'm faced with," Garner said. "I've got a club that can't afford to lose another game".  So he was at least thinking it could happen again.   

[homer]

from the article: (re: blackout rules)

We've also heard that teams have been asked to submit info to MLB specifically outlining all the distant locations in their "territory" where they're actually on some form of local TV. MLB then intends to crack down on clubs that are claiming certain areas as their turf if, in reality, those claims actually are preventing fans of that team from seeing games even if they're willing to pay for Extra Innings.

[Amy]

That is a fantastic article.  Lidge 101, required reading for everyone who wants to post one word about Lidge.  Garner was kinda joking around about when the Tigers fired him but here he says "So here's what I'm faced with," Garner said. "I've got a club that can't afford to lose another game".  So he was at least thinking it could happen again.   

Hmm...you could be right, but I didn't take it that way.  I took it more like, considering how close the division is probably going to be, the team can't afford to go around giving away games, much less propping up the confidence of perennial bottom feeders in their own division in the process.  Also, I really think bullpen inconsistency was a big reason why the team could never seem to get any momentum going last year, at least until the last two weeks of the season.  Blown saves are just a  brutal way to lose.  We really didn't need to start that crap again this year.

[JimR]

Hmm...you could be right, but I didn't take it that way.  I took it more like, considering how close the division is probably going to be, the team can't afford to go around giving away games, much less propping up the confidence of perennial bottom feeders in their own division in the process.  Also, I really think bullpen inconsistency was a big reason why the team could never seem to get any momentum going last year, at least until the last two weeks of the season.  Blown saves are just a  brutal way to lose.  We really didn't need to start that crap again this year.

how many did he blow? how many of them lost games?

[Lurch]

This one was burried deep, but should not go without notice either:

scout says of Jennings: "Three years ago, he was 90-93. But this spring, and at the beginning of the year, his stuff was soft and he was throwing 80 percent cutters. He had a totally different style."

[MRaup]

This one was burried deep, but should not go without notice either:

That could mean a lot of things. 3 years is a long time. What was he like last year? The year before?

Maybe he realized that his cutter is his best pitch?

[JackAstro]

That could mean a lot of things. 3 years is a long time. What was he like last year? The year before?

Maybe he realized that his cutter is his best pitch?

And maybe he can rely on his cutter actually moving now?

[Amy]

how many did he blow? how many of them lost games?

I wasn't just talking about Lidge.  Qualls had some blowups too.  I just did a quick survey of last year's schedule and counted about 20 close losses where a reliever got the L, most of them went to Lidge, Qualls and Wheeler.  Lidge had 6 blown saves and 5 losses; Wheeler had 3 BS and 5 Ls; Qualls had 6 BS and 3 Ls.  That's 15 blown saves right there.  We lost the division by 1.5 games.

[homer]

I wasn't just talking about Lidge.  Qualls had some blowups too.  I just did a quick survey of last year's schedule and counted about 20 close losses where a reliever got the L, most of them went to Lidge, Qualls and Wheeler.  Lidge had 6 blown saves and 5 losses; Wheeler had 3 BS and 5 Ls; Qualls had 6 BS and 3 Ls.  That's 15 blown saves right there.  We lost the division by 1.5 games.

So, the Astros main three late game pitchers were responsible for 75% (15/20) of the close game losses. Who woulda thunk it?

[Limey]

So, the Astros main three late game pitchers were responsible for 75% (15/20) of the close game losses. Who woulda thunk it?

Nice avatar.

[Amy]

So, the Astros main three late game pitchers were responsible for 75% (15/20) of the close game losses. Who woulda thunk it?

It's the blown saves that are so brutal.  We had 15 of them.  It's a game the team expects to win and then gets the rug pulled out from under them.

[homer]

Hmm...you could be right, but I didn't take it that way.  I took it more like, considering how close the division is probably going to be, the team can't afford to go around giving away games, much less propping up the confidence of perennial bottom feeders in their own division in the process.  Also, I really think bullpen inconsistency was a big reason why the team could never seem to get any momentum going last year, at least until the last two weeks of the season.  Blown saves are just a  brutal way to lose.  We really didn't need to start that crap again this year.

This is fantasy. No way is Garner worried about 'propping up the bottom feeders', nor is he concerned that he will lose the division in the first week.

[MusicMan]

That is a fantastic article.  Lidge 101, required reading for everyone who wants to post one word about Lidge.    

Stark is the best writer ESPN has covering any sport.

[homer]

It's the blown saves that are so brutal.  We had 15 of them.  It's a game the team expects to win and then gets the rug pulled out from under them.

How many are too many?

[Limey]

How many are too many?

How ever many by which you miss the playoffs.  Then, however many by which you don't win a playoff series.

Et ceterah!  Et ceterah!  Et ceterah!

[Amy]

This is fantasy. No way is Garner worried about 'propping up the bottom feeders', nor is he concerned that he will lose the division in the first week.

Do you have a better theory?

[MusicMan]

It's the blown saves that are so brutal.  We had 15 of them.  It's a game the team expects to win and then gets the rug pulled out from under them.

Actually, we had 18.  And only 7 MLB teams had fewer.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=pitching&group=9&seasonType=2&type=exp1&sort=blownSaves&split=0&season=2006

[TheWizard]

So, the Astros main three late game pitchers were responsible for 75% (15/20) of the close game losses. Who woulda thunk it?

MR often gets saddled with Ls though.  They often times will come in during a tie game, and give up a run, and get the loss.  I don't think they bear the brunt of that loss though, so I think that stat is a bit misleading.  If they have 15 of the 20 close game losses, its natural... who else would have those losses???

[Amy]

Actually, we had 18.  And only 7 MLB teams had fewer.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=pitching&group=9&seasonType=2&type=exp1&sort=blownSaves&split=0&season=2006

Seven teams that had far better offenses than the Astros.  Maybe I'm just projecting my own feelings onto the team, but it seemed like that team had everything they could do to hand the pen a one or two run lead and if they coughed it up, it was too hard for them to come back.

[EasTexAstro]

Seven teams that had far better offenses than the Astros.  Maybe I'm just projecting my own feelings onto the team, but it seemed like that team had everything they could do to hand the pen a one or two run lead and if they coughed it up, it was too hard for them to come back.

I'm not looking at the data, but how many of those blown saves came when there was a 1 run lead and a guy on 3rd with no outs (for example) when the pen took over?

[Lurch]

Actually, we had 18.  And only 7 MLB teams had fewer.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=pitching&group=9&seasonType=2&type=exp1&sort=blownSaves&split=0&season=2006

And our ratio of blown saves to loses is 23%, only 5 teams better.  Only 8 teams had more Holds.  Move on, nothing to see here.

[homer]

Do you have a better theory?

He was joking. That is what he does.

[homer]

Nice avatar.

Thanks. Its the best I could do for pravata in anticipation of the marketing saturation.

[Limey]

Thanks. Its the best I could do for pravata in anticipation of the marketing saturation.

Put that kid on a pure diet of Luby's.  He'll be a decent representation of Flapjack by May.

[mihoba]

And no one is going to comment on this nugget from the article?

All players get their share of e-mails from spacey fans -- but Craig Biggio can top every one of them. He actually got an e-mail from the International Space Station this month. The author of that e-mail was noted Astros fan (and astronaut) Michael Lopez-Alegria, who has been orbiting, via a really high fly, for the past seven months.

Biggio told Rumblings that Lopez-Alegria informed him that if he's interested in doing any recreational space travel after he retires, something could be arranged. "It costs $20-25 million for a ride up there," Biggio said. "But he said he heard there was a discount if you've got 3,000 hits."

Uncle Drayton, I wanna go for a space ride. Roy O got a dozer...

[remy]

I wasn't just talking about Lidge.  Qualls had some blowups too.  I just did a quick survey of last year's schedule and counted about 20 close losses where a reliever got the L, most of them went to Lidge, Qualls and Wheeler.  Lidge had 6 blown saves and 5 losses; Wheeler had 3 BS and 5 Ls; Qualls had 6 BS and 3 Ls.  That's 15 blown saves right there.  We lost the division by 1.5 games.

This one hurt real bad.  Lots of them last season did.  But this one just hurt real, real bad.  Cost us winning the series, and potentially getting some good mojo going.  Also cost Rocket a W.

[pravata]

Thanks. Its the best I could do for pravata in anticipation of the marketing saturation.

Just shoot me.

[homer]

Lidge in the post game - "To be totally honest, the last time I threw a cut fastball was the game against St. Louis. I'm feelin pretty good about what i got right now. I am going back to the stuff I feel has worked best in my career, and I feel real good with it right now."

[Reuben]

Lidge in the post game - "To be totally honest, the last time I threw a cut fastball was the game against St. Louis. I'm feelin pretty good about what i got right now. I am going back to the stuff I feel has worked best in my career, and I feel real good with it right now."

The BrewCrew just got a free advance scouting report. Unless it's.....Head Games.

[pots]

Seven teams that had far better offenses than the Astros.  Maybe I'm just projecting my own feelings onto the team, but it seemed like that team had everything they could do to hand the pen a one or two run lead and if they coughed it up, it was too hard for them to come back.

You almost go it.  The Astros pen was one of the best last year, to say otherwise is ignoring the facts.  Their offense was sub par, that is why they didn't make the playoffs.  There really is no other reason.   

This year the offense is much improved and the bullpen is still real good.  I like the way Garner handles the bully.  He will get guys who are struggling work early in the season so that when by the allstar break they are the best they can be(and if they don't come around they are gone....Gallo) 

I really like the Lidge move.  Makes a whole lot of sense to get a guy struggling with location more time and in less pressure situations.  His location is already much improved. 

[WulawHorn]

The bullpen is ok line (last year) is bullshit revisionist history of the worst order.

That team was built to win with good starting pitching, a lock down bullpen, great defense up the middle and just enough offense.

If the bullpen would have done their job as well as they had the previous 3 or 4 years the stros win the division and go to the playoffs.

My man Noe was posting every other week leading up to the trade deadline that he would do something about the bully before addressing the offense, preaching about how important it is.  I was a bit skeptical but he converted me. Now, you guys are trying to say it wasn't on them (well nothing is ever on one guy it's a team game).  If Lidge was as good as he was in 04 and 05 it's a playoff team last year (granted in a weak division).

The bully was counted on to be fantastic and it was not.  Period.  I don't care what the numbers relative to other teams say.  The Arizona series was a killer with the referenced Clemens game, another late inning loss, and iirc another loss for the bully sandwhiched somewhere around there.

Also- I remember thinking the blown save in St. Louis ended the season.  They got hot and could have still overcome it very late, but that 2 game swing hurt really bad.  The offense wasn't good, but nobody thought it would be a real strength.

Moberg and Lidge (and to a lesser extent Lane) did not do what was expected. 

As a side note- I have said before and will say again, Jayson Stark is by far my favorite baseball writer out there.  He consistently has great insight into the astros, probably b/c he's been the guy covering them in the post season for the last two runs, and partly because he is not a self agrandizing hack that tries to make himself the story like Dick Justice and Jose the Jesus Ortiz.

[Noe]

My man Noe was posting every other week leading up to the trade deadline that he would do something about the bully before addressing the offense, preaching about how important it is.  I was a bit skeptical but he converted me. Now, you guys are trying to say it wasn't on them (well nothing is ever on one guy it's a team game).  If Lidge was as good as he was in 04 and 05 it's a playoff team last year (granted in a weak division).

Context is everything.  I felt that they were not going to get another starter, the price was too high.  I also thought MoBerg, Lane, Wilson would be fine and come out of the funk.  So with that in mind, I felt they needed one more reliever, if it were a lefty, great!  At the time, I didn't know if Trever Miller was going to be the reliever he turned out to be (call it my personal Gallo nightmare).

But the crux of what I was saying was that I feared the IP's being logged by Pettitte and Oswalt seeing as how Clemens and Backe were not going to give this team #3 type of IPs.  If that is the case, then you need a very strong bullpen.  I wanted to release Oswalt and Pettitte from heavy IP duty and put more on the pen.  Plus without a strong starter, the next best thing is a lock down pen.

I felt at the time that a reliever would be the best option to explore and it would not have made me scratch my head if they went that route.  However, they knew something I didn't so they went out and got Aubrey Huff.  Did the Astros suspect MoBerg was more injured than he let on?  Probably.

All bets are off at that point when it comes to priority need at the trading deadline.  They needed another bat.  As it turned out, they needed two: Luke Scott and Aubrey Huff.

[WulawHorn]

Right- I remember the majority of what you are saying- my main point was that if we were talking about the importance of making the bullpen lights out, it necessarily concludes that the idea is the bullpen was not lights out at the time. I think that was the worst performance by the Astros bullpen last year since maybe 2000, or 2001.  If they were as good as they were from 03-5 06 would have been a playoff team. They were planned to be that good, they were not that good.

[pots]

The bullpen is ok line (last year) is bullshit revisionist history of the worst order.

That team was built to win with good starting pitching, a lock down bullpen, great defense up the middle and just enough offense.

The bullpen was good last year, definitely in the second half.  The offense was just not enough.  It was planned to be JUST enough, but it wasn't due to career bad years by dinged up Mo and Lane's big downer.   The Astros gave up the second fewest runs in the NL last year(second only to the Pet friendly park) and only managed a 82-80 season.  To say the bullpen was the reason for not making it to the playoffs is ridiculous.

[Mr. Happy]

The bullpen was good last year, definitely in the second half.  The offense was just not enough.  It was planned to be JUST enough, but it wasn't due to career bad years by dinged up Mo and Lane's big downer.   The Astros gave up the second fewest runs in the NL last year(second only to the Pet friendly park) and only managed a 82-80 season.  To say the bullpen was the reason for not making it to the playoffs is ridiculous.

The bully saved our asses last year.