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Messages - pots

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1501
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top Prospect Lists 2015
« on: February 11, 2015, 07:43:05 am »
Callis discusses Brett Phillips, ranking him as his #1 "sleeper".

Good read.

Callis is late to the party here.   Law has him at #76 already.  Actually, he's not even willing to come to the party yet.  Just saying there is a good chance he could show up. 

1502
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread
« on: January 31, 2015, 03:17:24 pm »
I've posted about both earlier in this thread. Nix will not be in JUCO as he's enrolled at IMG Academy instead. Due to enrollment considerations (see this previously referenced Jim Callis article), JUCO now appears out for Aiken. That leaves him three options: IMG Academy, indy league or simply working out in front of scouts.

Doesn't seem like he's running out their to prove the Astros were wrong

1503
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top Prospect Lists 2015
« on: January 29, 2015, 04:15:42 pm »
In comaprison to Berkman's scouting reports at age 21 out of Rice, only one had Berkman's future power at 75 and another at 65.  The rest were 60 and lower.  Hitting wise he was predicted 55-65.  So Correa's grades are higher than Berkman's at a similar age



Some of the scouts really had no faith in him

1504
Should also mention that Phillips went from organizational fodder to a top 100 prospect last year.  It will be interesting to see if he can maintain his ascension.

1505


Last year at this time:
Astros
Twins
Pirates
Cubs

Last July:
Cubs
Twins
Astros
Mets
Pirates.

Surprised they didn't drop further.  With the removal of Folty, DDS, Tropeano and Ruiz.  And not signing Aiken, Nix or Marshall.

They did gain Moran though

1506
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread
« on: January 27, 2015, 08:58:26 am »
Aggie LHP Tyler Stubblefield, a likely top 10 round pick, out with torn ACL (per various tweets).

Interesting perhaps someone to snag with the compensation pick

1507
Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors
« on: January 23, 2015, 12:45:50 pm »
He signed for $9.5 mil.

Out of curiosity, If one is traded after the numbers are turned in does the new team get to resubmit a number or are they locked in at the number the previous team submitted?

1508
Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors
« on: January 20, 2015, 04:57:21 pm »
Hit .225, get a $1MM raise.

Yeah that will happen when half your hits go for extra bases

1509
Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors
« on: January 20, 2015, 02:12:46 pm »
Not if he's traded.

What's the 40 man correction deadline if you sign someone.  Vogelsong and Rasmus would make 42. 

1510
Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors
« on: January 20, 2015, 01:39:41 pm »
I've been somewhat surprised by most of these off-season moves, but signing Rasmus would be a real head-scratcher. 

Certainly makes the million to Presley seem like a waste.

1511
Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors
« on: January 20, 2015, 01:04:35 pm »
Also in Houston:

Quote
Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal  · 9m9 minutes ago  
Source: #Astros talking to Rasmus. Reports earlier today said he was in Houston


And not just chatting.

Colby Rasmus is in Houston for physical. Says no deal yet: "Jeff (Luhnow) being the scouting director that drafted me, it's pretty enticing"


Luhnow and the 40 man roster

1512
Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors
« on: January 20, 2015, 12:34:32 pm »
Offensively the trade looks good.  If you are using 2014 statistics and are assuming you are replacing Fowler and Dominguez with a strict platoons of Grossman/Marisnick and Valbuena/Dominguez then you have replaced slash lines of:

276/375/399 (Fowler)
215/256/330 (Dominguez)
246/316/365 (Averaging them both)

with:

252/355/355 (Grossman/Marisnick)
252/332/444 (Valbuena/Dominguez)
252/344/399 (Average)



1513
Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors
« on: January 20, 2015, 11:59:40 am »
I sure hope they got more than a so-so platoon 3Bman and a setup man for Fowler. I'm hoping they've identified something McHugh-esque about Straily; otherwise, I don't get it. Fowler is a very good player.

If you can endure the fanatacrap this article might get you somewhat excited about Luis Valbuena.  Apparently he learned how to hit a fastball.  Though sample size is an issue.

1514
Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors
« on: January 19, 2015, 12:23:30 pm »
Could the Astros get anything for a Castro and Dominguez trade package?

Dominguez has no trade value. 

1515
Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors
« on: January 14, 2015, 02:30:58 pm »
Yep.  He'll be under club control during his prime.  I like that.  Also, what did we really give up?  Folty didn't exactly excel as he moved through the upper minors.  Stros still have Moran coming at 3B, along with JD Davis possibly not too far behind so Ruiz shouldn't be a huge loss.  Thurman I don't know much about.  I remember hearing he had a great change up, but that's about it.

Thurman doesn't seem like a big loss, but Folty and Ruiz have really high ceilings.  They may never see them but if either do this will be a gigantic mistake.  Very risky trade.  

It would be an easier pill to swallow if it filled some sort of a gaping hole like say 3rd base.  At this point there has to be another shoe to be dropped.


ETA  - As this fella is suggesting
Quote
2:03pm: The deal is not yet complete, caution Sherman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Mark Bowman (via Twitter), with the former saying the terms are settled upon pending physical and the latter warning there is still a chance that Gattis could be moved to another club.

1516
Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors
« on: January 14, 2015, 02:22:00 pm »
I see the logic, the Astros are trying to shoot for a monopoly on all available catchers then drive up the price.


1517
Beer and Queso / Re: NFL Playoffs
« on: January 05, 2015, 04:17:42 pm »
 It was most definitely catchable, so the question of it being underthrown is completely moot.  


It hit the back of the defender.  The only way to catch that ball is off the defender's back.  The defender has a right to be there he just can't hit the receiver which he did.  But if he didn't contact the receiver it would have been incomplete barring one hell of a play where Pettigrew manages to secure it off of the defender's back.  Odell Beckham would have had it sure, almost impossible Pettigrew gets one off the defender

1518
Beer and Queso / Re: NFL Playoffs
« on: January 05, 2015, 04:14:28 pm »
That pass wasn't particularly underthrown.  It wasn't a go route with the receiver streaking down the field.  It's what's known as a "back shoulder" pass, specifically designed to combat the man to man press coverage a the line.  It's a timing throw that takes advantage of the defender having his back to the QB.  The QB is taught to throw the ball at the back of the defender's head, and it's a staple in almost every offense these days.  When effectively ran, and competently officiated, it's difficult to defend.  The latter being especially critical.  

And in case you missed it...Pettigrew *had* turned completely around and was facing Stafford, 180 degrees from Hitchens. 

It hit the back of the defender's shoulder pad.  It's a drag wheel route.  I know what a back shoulder pass is and that play should not have been a back shoulder pass.  The defender was beat.  The only time you might try to back shoulder pass that is if the defender is cheating inside.  He wasn't.  It was thrown flat and underthrown.  It had no chance of completion because it hit the back of the shoulder pads of the defender, not the shoulder of the receiver, the defender. 

1519
Beer and Queso / Re: NFL Playoffs
« on: January 05, 2015, 02:51:54 pm »
I believe it was pass interference but he didn't mug him.  The ball was so ridiculously underthrown, the receiver would have fallen just due to the fact he had to turn completely around to catch it.  There is no way a 275 pound guy can turn completely around running full speed downfield and not fall down.   However there was contact made on the shoulder so simple face guarding should not have been the call.  He did however raise his arms immediately after the shoulder contact.  I could see how officiating it live you might have missed that.  And by rule without that contact you don't have to turn to face the ball.  Had he not pushed the shoulder and just raised his hands the play would have turned out the same exact way with the ball hitting the defender and Pettigrew on the ground.  

Had Stafford made a moderately good throw he would have had a touchdown.  Pettigrew had the guy beat.  Put a little air on that and hit him in stride.

1520
Talk Zone / Re: Downs outrighted
« on: December 24, 2014, 10:42:44 am »
I'm surprised they haven't traded Castro by now. Maybe they shot themselves in the foot a bit by not anticipating that Montero, Grandal, and some of the other catchers would be put on the trade block, providing more options for the teams that didn't get Russell Martin.


 I thought I read that Luhnow was trying to trade Corporan and not Castro.   

1521
Talk Zone / Re: Yoan Moncada and other Cuban prospects currently unsigned
« on: December 17, 2014, 01:56:44 pm »
I wonder if Cubans will eventually be allowed to play abroad or if they will still have to defect if they want to play off the island.

Is this in reference to today's change in diplomatic policy towards Cuba?  Because it certainly would lead to that.

1522
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Jacob Nix Settlement
« on: December 17, 2014, 10:50:48 am »
I'm glad that your hindsight is 20/20. I still have great hopes for Appel.

#1 picks are #1 picks.  Likely the single best opportunity to improve the franchise outside of big dollar free agents.  Ones that really standout as successes and failures.

Appel was not the consensus #1 pick in 2013.  He was the consensus #1 pick in 2012.  A year in which 7 teams went elsewhere.  Yes money was a concern, but not for the Astros or Twins.  Once he fell past those 2, money likely paid a bigger factor.

In 2013, there was a consensus top 3.  They picked Appel.  I think that was a mistake.  Just calling it like I see it.

Hey, I give credit to Luhnow and team when positives happen.  McHugh was a fantastic snag.  Not giving up on Keuchel was a good move.  They've made some real good pickups in trades.  Lowrie's signing and the new bullpen guys is good.    

1523
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Jacob Nix Settlement
« on: December 17, 2014, 09:05:48 am »
I think the second paragraph pretty much sums it up. The club may not have done anything wrong in the eyes of MLB, but if the arbiter ruled in favor of Nix, they could have lost a lot more in baseball currency than cash.

Just puts an exclamation point on what was a total failure by the front office.  2 consecutive bungled drafts now by the Luhnow and team.  2013, Appel was a mistake that could have been avoided and they followed it up with 2 pitchers unlikely to ever see a major league mound.  How nice would it be to have Bryant starting at third this year?  Suspect there was a reason why Heck was looking at a 17 year old in Puerto Rico instead of the consensus Appel.  And though last year's pick Aiken was likely the correct choice, not sure the situation could have been handled worse. 



1524
Talk Zone / Re: South Korean SS Jung-ho Kang
« on: December 16, 2014, 10:12:27 am »
Sound reasoning there. So do you think it was Headly or Lowrie and never both?



The timing of the signings says Headley then Lowrie never both.   Don't think the Astros offer to Headley was ever publicly denied.

1525
Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors
« on: December 15, 2014, 03:06:28 pm »
‏@FeinsandNYDN  18m
Headley: "The New York offer wasn't the biggest offer ... but we left money on the table to be where we wanted to be."

The Astros supposedly offered 5 year 65 which is 13 per.  The Yankees have gauranteed 13 per plus 1 million each year he breaks 550 PAs.  So more money over longer time

1526
Talk Zone / Re: Welcome back, Jed
« on: December 15, 2014, 02:54:03 pm »
Cool.  Reasonably priced.  Not the 10 per we were led to believe.  Perhaps he may have even given a hometown discount.  And a 5 million dollar club option for a 4th.  Very nice.  Wonder if the entire contract is front loaded?

ETA
Actually, it's likely 7 per with a 2 million buyout.  Still very reasonable

1527
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Rule 5
« on: December 15, 2014, 02:38:04 pm »
The Royals are too good a team to be able to carry Gustave all year. Unless they flip him or work a deal with Houston. Just my guess.

Was reading an article today that there is talk in KC to carry one less bench player so they can carry him in the bullpen.  

Some quotes:
Quote
"He's got a big, big arm," Royals assistant general manager J.J. Picollo told me. "Got a chance to be a back-end bullpen guy down the road. He's thrown the ball well this winter in the Dominican and seems to have turned a corner.

"The command and life on his fastball has really improved."

But Gustave is raw, having finished last season at low-A ball, where he had 14 starts and nine relief outings, posting a 5.01 ERA.

"But if we start the year with 13 pitchers," a source said, "we can protect him until down the road when he might get more comfortable."

Doesn't sound to me like a guy they think is ready.  Now it does go from Picollo said to a source said.  So perhaps this is journalistically created.

1528
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Rule 5
« on: December 15, 2014, 12:51:14 pm »
The DDSj, I get.  He's likely a utility player in the majors, not much lost to him starting the job now.  With Rollins it seems like a good thing for him.   Possibly never getting anything other than a cup of coffee with the Astros, good for him to get an extra chance.  But the Gustave thing kind of ticks me off.  The Royals are screwing this guy over.  He clearly needs more time to harness his stuff.  If they like him so much then put a trade in for him and finish his development.  Don't screw with a guys career like this.  

ETA
I guess I'd be in favor of a minimum G/IP for pitchers and PAs/G for position players.  Just so the players can play regularly enough not to be stunted.

1529
Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors
« on: December 15, 2014, 12:09:26 pm »

1530
Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors
« on: December 15, 2014, 12:08:37 pm »
So an extra $100m or so for Scherzer is better than giving up a few non-Correa, non-Appel prospects? How much do you think they'll get for Hamels?

Granted, Hamels did always kinda seem like a cocky little bitch. I just think Scherzer's deal is likely to be a disaster for the team that lands him.

Guessing the haul would look something like Folty, Velasquez and Ruiz.   Hamels is coming off a real good year.   I don't see Philly just giving him away to dump salary.  Neither Scherzer nor Hamels makes any sense for the Astros unless Crane's payroll stance changes pretty dramatically.


1531
Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors
« on: December 15, 2014, 10:10:05 am »
Chapman?

Situational lefty.  Though you could easily go with Downs as well.

Insanity is ending quickly.  Headley signs with yanks for 52 million 4 year deal.  Equivalent money per year that the supposed Astros offer was for.  Wonder if their is an option/vesting year on it.

1532
Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors
« on: December 15, 2014, 10:04:35 am »
Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe says "aggressive" Astros may be sleeper team among suitors seeking Cole Hamels (via Astros County).

Boy, I think I'd prefer Scherzer.  About 3-4 million more per year and about 2-3 more years(depending on the option year for Hamels).  But it only costs you a 32nd pick in the 2015 draft versus a haul that the Phillies are likely to ask for. 


1533
Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors
« on: December 15, 2014, 09:23:13 am »
Bill Madden of the New York Daily News already this offseason has made the questionable claim that the Astros offered 5yr/$65MM to Chase Headley. Now he throws more shit on the wall by saying they're "best bets" (along with the Rangers and Nats) to sign Scherzer. Also says the Astros have interest in OF Michael Morse.

(Via Astros County)

well why we are acting insane, let's land Scherzer, Headley and Lowrie.  

Rotation of Scherzer, Keuchel, McHugh, Feldman and Oberholtzer would rank top 5 in the league.
Pen of Qualls, Gregerson, Neshek, Fields, Sipp, Folty and Chapman is very solid
Very solid line-up of:
Altuve
Fowler
Headley
Carter
Springer
Lowrie
Castro
Singleton
Marisnick/Grossman platoon

That team looks like one that would have meaningful games in September.  Just need to turn the remaining 7 million in supposed payroll space into 50 and you are all set.






1534
Talk Zone / Welcome Luke Gregerson
« on: December 10, 2014, 08:32:17 am »
Signed Luke Gregerson for 3 years 18.5 million  (more info on deal)

Apparently 3 million extra in incentives.


One reliever to go

1535
Talk Zone / Re: Chase Headley? Really?
« on: December 09, 2014, 10:26:25 am »
Still, I'd much rather have Lowrie.

I think I'd lean towards Headley over Lowrie.  Same exact age, similar offensively but Headley likely the better defensive 3rd baseman. 

Either would be a nice upgrade.

1536
Talk Zone / Re: Chase Headley? Really?
« on: December 09, 2014, 09:05:35 am »
Just a refresher of just how bad Dominguez was last year.  That WAR stat, if you take all 146 players that qualified with enough plate appearances last year, Dominguez was dead last at -1.6.  Last out of 146 players.  Lets repeat that one more time, last.  As in the worst of all players.  
 - 2nd to last in OPS
 - Last by 12 points in OBP
 - 3rd to last in AVG
 - 5th to last in slugging despite actually hitting 16 HRs

Headley is just an average player.  But that is a huge improvement over the historically bad year Dominguez had last year.  

Dominguez maybe above average defensively, but he is not the best defensive 3rd baseman.  And Headley is slightly above average. Plus he can play Left and first.  






1537
Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors
« on: December 08, 2014, 09:00:53 am »
Well, let's see: Astros or Yankees? Yankees or Astros? Gee, I just don't know.

Threw away 2 million per year if you count sales tax/cost of living.  Insane.  Have the Astros fallen that far as a ball club that a journeyman like Miller wants nothing to do with you? 

1538
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread
« on: December 05, 2014, 10:01:32 am »
MLB.com with their top 50 Draft List. Their initial assessment six months out: lotsa pitching but light on position players with Rodgers, Matuella and Aiken the clear leaders at this early stage.

I'd be shocked if Aiken went top 5.  (Especially given the Astros have 2 of those picks).  And top 10 is likely a long shot.  After that though the gamble is likely worth it.

1539
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top Prospect Lists 2015
« on: November 25, 2014, 09:31:45 am »
Same guy, but must be different idea of the scale, but my conception of the scale might be badly off.

In my mind, a 70 grade pitch is basically at the far end of the distribution curve.  It's a pitch most average batters might know is coming, but still can't handle.  In other words, not common at all.

How many 70 pitches were on last year's MLB staff?  I can only think of one: McHugh's curve.  I might be forgetting others, but it's been a few months. So, having two 70 pitches, with one being a fastball, would put one in the upper tier of MLB pitchers, not middling in high A ball.

Folty has an 80 fastball.   The rating is how good the pitch is, control is counted separately.  In some ways they are tied together in other ways they are not.  A 98 mph fastball down the middle is about as effective as a 88 mph fastball on the corner.  But control can be worked on and you can't add 10 mph to your fastball.  So it makes sense to keep them separate.   And you rather have a prospect with a 70 fastball, 65 curveball and 45 control than one with a 45 fastball, 45 curveball, and 70 control.  Not that they can't find a way to make it on mostly control, it is just that the first player might be an ace and the second one an innings eater

1540
Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors
« on: November 24, 2014, 12:14:33 pm »
BlowSox possibly moving toward an agreement with Hanley Ramirez.

4 year 88 million dollar contract with a vesting 5th year worth 22 million.
So either 4/88 million or 5/110 if the 5th year vests. 




1541
Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors
« on: November 24, 2014, 09:23:05 am »
Here's a blockbuster idea for you.  Castro, Fowler and Appel for that Bryant guy.  

Or maybe Castro, Moran and Appel

1542
Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors
« on: November 24, 2014, 09:02:57 am »
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says in addition to Castro Astros willing to deal Dexter Fowler.

They'd be insane not to listen to offers on Fowler.  He should bring a haul.

1543
Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors
« on: November 19, 2014, 04:50:13 pm »
The cubs also have this guy, Luis Valbuena , in Mr. Bryant's position.  

1544
Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors
« on: November 12, 2014, 04:37:45 pm »
How do you get your figures?  How do you know he'll drop off in his age-32 season?  Anyway, he's only had one season below .750 and every home game he has played in his MLB career (minus 2 AB as a rookie in Boston) has been in very pitcher-friendly parks.  I don't expect another 1.000 OPS season out of him, but I don't expect a major regression this soon, either.  I'm also looking at him on a 4-year deal, rather than 5, for what it's worth.

He's looking for 6-7 years, likely settle to 5

1545
Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors
« on: November 12, 2014, 11:54:37 am »
Year 3 looks promising for Feldman.  

Why do you see the best option being that he's traded after 1 or 2 years?  Do you see it as Ruiz/Moran will outperform him or a payroll-flexibility issue?  

Yes and yes.  You are getting years 31+  While he'll likely be able to maintain a near 800 OPS next year.  In 2 years it will be closer to 700 than 800.  And at that point if someone would take the remaining contract off your hands consider yourself lucky.

1546
Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors
« on: November 12, 2014, 08:46:39 am »

Any scenario involving Hanley I envision would have him holding shortstop until Correa was ready, then moving to 3B.  Would I take Ramirez over Ruiz or Moran at ages 31/32-34?  Without seeing a crystal ball, yes.  We're still at a point where we need to fill multiple holes, rather than make one splash and nothing.  But, the payroll should continue to go up, so long-term, I don't see him as a detriment.  The only questions would be what else can we do with him and what could be done differently.  This is all assuming there is any level of mutual interest.

Only way I could see Hanley making sense is a front loaded contract with the aspiration of trading him after 1 or 2 years.  Like a 25, 22.5, 20, 17.5, 15

They front loaded Feldman's contract.  If he does well this year he could be a real nice trade chip in July or the 2015-16 offseason.  (His contract: 12, 10, 8)

1547
Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors
« on: November 11, 2014, 12:37:45 pm »
From Moberg, replying to Rosenthal:

@MorganEnsberg: @Ken_Rosenthal I think we should put Correa up there right now. Kid is special. He'll figure it out. High character guy and leader. @astros

Sure and every time things aren't working, change your stance.  And don't be afraid to take one down the middle.

ETA
I could see starting him at AA, and if he hits there a June promotion to AAA then maybe July.  But that would be rushing it.  Is there any precedence for a guy skipping AA and AAA?  (Any successful precedence)


ETA2
If the alternative is bringing in Hanley for north of 20 million per for 5 plus years then "Welcome to Houston, Carlos".

1548
Talk Zone / Re: Conger Acquired via Trade
« on: November 07, 2014, 03:48:58 pm »
Frankly I don't recall seeing many articles on Tropeano, and I follow the farm pretty closely. In any case, I think there's a difference between being bummed to see a personal favorite go, and thinking its a shitty trade that proves something about the overall judgement or philosophy of the org. I was bummed to see JD Martinez let go, but it was hard to argue, at the time, that he hadn't been given plenty of chances. New swing, ok. Every spring is full of marginal mlb hitters proclaiming that they fixed something and feel like they've turned a corner.  I did scratch my head at why they completely cut him lose, but perhaps that was genuinely to benefit the player, so he could seek better opportunities elsewhere, where he wasn't blocked by LJ Hoes (oops!).

And hey, at least they've kept Keuchel. He's always been the type of player you're talking about.

They did keep Keuchel.  I was happy to see them not give up on him.  I felt like he could be a good back end of the rotation guy.  Oops, he did even better.  

I read a couple of articles like this on Trop.  And there has been a lot about his tenacity on the mound.  I like his chances to succeed.  



1549
Talk Zone / Re: Conger Acquired via Trade
« on: November 07, 2014, 01:37:46 pm »
I think the rest of what you're saying might be a tad colored by the above bias. Maybe people have forgotten this, because it's been a few years since the org was really trading prospects of any significance for Major League players, but, that's baseball. Lots and lots of prospects come through every system, and many of them become personal or sentimental favorites. Some of those will come up and stick with the big club for a while, and some will be used in trades.

You and a few others seem to be hung up on the Astros not thinking highly enough of Tropeano. Perhaps they did think pretty highly of him, but they also think highly of Conger too? And maybe they're wrong on that. It really depends on how you evaluate the different contributions of a catcher, and what you think Conger's true talent level is. And, of course, the Astros' relative near-MLB-ready pitching depth compared to their near-MLB-ready catching depth.

But basically every team that's not mired in a total fire-sale rebuild is going to make deals where they trade away prospects like Tropeano, on a fairly regular basis. And it doesn't always feel good to see those guys go.


Just to be clear.  I'm not calling for his head.  I just used to be a staunch supporter of Mr Luhnow. 

And a correction.  Conger is under team control for 3 years.  I said 2 earlier. 

But to be clear on Tropeano, I don't mind trading prospects for MLB players.  No problem with the Cosart trade (though that landed more prospects).  No problem with Lyles.  Both are talented young pitchers.  But every article you read about guys like JD and Tropeano made you want to root for them.    Made you think they would be more than their talent.  You just hate to see these guys go.  Especially if good backup catcher is the return.  Perhaps Luhnow is trying to set the market for a haul from Castro.  To me it really doesn't matter.  Because I believe that selling Tropeano now is selling low.  And he's a guy I would have rather rooted for. 



1550
Talk Zone / Re: Conger Acquired via Trade
« on: November 07, 2014, 10:56:43 am »
The thing about losing Tropeano is some of us have been following these guys closely.  Tropeano busted out on the scene when he added a few miles per hour on his fastball his first full year.  Always having a devastating change up the improved speed on his fastball made his changeup even better.  In his second year he regressed a little, causing many to think he was toping out.  But he put it all together this year at AAA and absolutely dominated.  His cup of coffee at the major leagues was decent.  No reason to think he wouldn't have settled in to being a good starter for the conceivable future.  And then WHAM, he's traded for a good backup catcher.   Just doesn't make sense.   The thing that makes Tropeano good is his tenacity and constant strive to improve.  And to prove people wrong.  A lot of the same traits that JD had.  JD just wouldn't take no for an answer.  A constant student of the game, JD completely revamped his swing in the offseason last year having immediate success with it in winter ball.  He never got a chance in spring training.   I'm sorry but Luhnow and his team just don't seem to put a value on work ethic and the intangibles that make one player better than another.  I'm officially off the Luhnow bandwagon. 

1551
Talk Zone / Re: Conger Acquired via Trade
« on: November 06, 2014, 05:19:52 pm »
Yeah I don't get this trade at all.  Trop's WHIP at AAA started with a 0 this year.  It's AAA but the PCL is a hitters league.  He seemed he had a real decent chance at being a good middle of the rotation guy.  Really puzzling.  I get you want to make moves to free up 40 man slots but this seems like a lopsided trade.  Even without the Perez addition.  You are trading a good young pitcher with 6 years of club control for a good backup catcher with 2 years of club control.  Just an insane looking price to pay.  And then tossed in Perez.  

1552
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status
« on: October 27, 2014, 04:38:56 pm »
Well, this was retweeted by Nix.  Seems to put to bed any thought of a super late signing:

https://twitter.com/emilyjlorenz/status/526499906132135936

1553
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status
« on: October 04, 2014, 07:59:39 am »
UCLA Baseball Welcomes 12 New Players for the 2015 Season

Quote
The group of 12 players, all natives of California, are right-handers Jake Bird (West Ranch HS), Griffin Canning (Santa Margarita HS), Nathan Hadley (Loyola HS), Matt Trask (Davis HS) and Matt Walker (Clovis North HS), left-hander Garrett Barker (Laguna Hills HS), infielders Sean Bouchard (Cathedral Catholic HS), Zander Clarke (Newbury Park HS), Scott Jarvis (Bellarmine HS) and Nick Valaika (Hart HS) and catchers Daniel Rosica (Fountain Valley HS) and Casey Worden (Saddleback JC).


Interestingly quiet on them not going to UCLA

1554
Talk Zone / Re: Next year's team
« on: September 29, 2014, 12:48:45 pm »
FWIW, Singleton has started slow at most levels.  I see no reason why the majors would be any different. 

1555
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status
« on: September 29, 2014, 12:29:00 pm »
Regardless, unless Marshall is part of the grievance he can't be required by MLB to do anything.

Of course not, but attending LSU would certainly close the door that may for some odd reason still be open

1556
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status
« on: September 29, 2014, 12:17:18 pm »
The only one known to have greived is Nix.  Marshall could not have been a part of that nor would he need to be to bail on LSU and go JUCO.

I would think the more likely scenario is that something happened at LSU that we will never know of and/or Marshall saw the $ for what it is and decided waiting 3 years to get it and hoping he didn't get injured wasn't the best plan.

What you are saying is likely the scenario, but Selig's comments suggested Aiken's situation and not Nix was in play.   What if Aiken never got the 5 million offer due to circumstances outside of his control?  I've not read anything saying that Aiken turned down the offer.  Only that the Astros got no response.  If Aiken is signed at 5 then the Nix grievance is easily resolved.  But the Astros could also easily argue that the 5 million offer was made with the understanding they would sign Marshall as well.   

1557
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status
« on: September 29, 2014, 11:43:53 am »
Yeah, it definitely makes you question the integrity of guys like Bickford and Marshall when they bail on their college programs at the last minute. I suppose it's naive of me to expect 18- or 19-year old prospects to have more maturity and integrity and not be completely selfish. I like to think that the Astros have always made character a crucial component of drafting decisions.

Or perhaps this Selig thing required Marshall not to attend college.

It's likely both Marhsall and Nix's deals were all but inked but weren't signed due solely to the CBA financial restrictions.  If a case can be made that Aiken's signing should of happened but didn't due to circumstances outside the power of the Astros and Aiken then a correction there could logically trickle down to Nix and Marshall. Long shot but given Selig's odd statement something must be going on. 

Quote
Now, none of the three high school pitchers from the class of 2014 is in a four-year college. Aiken and Nix have UCLA commitments, and while neither is necessarily expected to play for the Bruins, UCLA’s fall semester doesn’t begin until Oct. 2, so that door is not yet closed.

Seems like this Thursday might be an interesting date. 



 

1559
Game Zone 2014 Archive / Re: Astros @ Mariners September 10, 2014
« on: September 11, 2014, 08:38:38 am »
The Astros are now 8-2 in their last 10 games
Since July 6th, Houston is 29-27.
Heck, since May 10th, Houston is 54-55.


And 6-2 in their last 8 against 3 teams that are well above 500.  Including 6 road games.

1560
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: August 28, 2014, 08:54:25 am »
Apparently the other 29 clubs have signed off on a clause that allows continued negotiations.  However, the Aikens reported to be requiring a sign & trade deal to be worked out before they sign anything. Which muddy's the waters even more.  

No problem.  As long as the team they trade with isn't allowed a physical before agreeing to a trade, and they are allowed a period to negotiate with all unsigned draftees.  

1561
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: August 27, 2014, 01:33:22 pm »
Selig gives credence to the rumors: "moving toward a hopeful solution."

Yeah good luck with that, only way the Stros win is if they get all 3.  Don't think Aiken and Nix without Marshall is better than #2 next year. 

1562
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014
« on: August 24, 2014, 12:12:13 am »
Of course Phillips goes 0-4 with 2 Ks tonight. 

1563
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014
« on: August 23, 2014, 09:22:09 am »
Brett Phillips with an absurd 5-for-5, 3 2B, 3 RBI, SB night, out hitting the opposing team all by himself. Now batting .380 at LAN and perhaps giving the org some thought of starting him at Corpus next spring?

There is no other player in farm whose stock has risen further this year.  In danger of turning into organizational filler after 2 slow years.  He has put himself back into the prospect conversation and may be/have leapfrogged DDS in centerfield prospects.   Likely still behind Teoscar Hernandez, but he is a year and a half younger than Teoscar.   If he finishes August strong it will be interesting to see where he stacks up in the prospect lists next year.

1564
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014
« on: August 21, 2014, 08:01:19 am »
Clearly not, but you're searching for a mole on the homecoming queen.  Did you also notice the fact that he has yet to give up a HR at home?

Nah just playing. 19k no runs only 5 hits.  Boy is on fire

1565
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014
« on: August 20, 2014, 11:59:31 pm »
Velasquez has walked 5 batters in the last 11 innings, not good

1566
Stanton is interesting.  However, since 2017 is THE year for the Astros and Stanton would have been a free agent then, they would get more help from Correa and Springer for the title run.

1567
I don't think Crick and Bundy were bad asks.  Both were injured and were obvious buy lows.  The fact that Harrell had as much value in Luhnow's eyes is interesting.  Apparently they truly felt his career was recoverable. 


But this is yet another PR hit.  Fortunately, PR is so low it likely will have no effect.

1568
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014
« on: August 15, 2014, 08:21:03 am »
Velasquez struck out 11 in 6 shutout innings last night as the Jethawks won 12-0. Phillips finished a single shy of the cycle; now hitting .390 since his promotion.

Game story.   Also had back to back to back homeruns in the game

1569
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Player Development Case Study
« on: August 08, 2014, 02:12:51 pm »
Excuse me for trying to stay on topic.  This was about Meyer, so I thought other 3B picks as well as other close-to-his-round picks were somewhat relevant.  This was not about the draft itself or even (really) the previous regime.  

J.D. is another guy I followed very closely, but he did not really fit into what is already a very long post.  I also failed to mention Morgan Ensberg.

You clearly took a dig at the Wade/Heck regime.  Been flipping through 2009 draft for various teams.   There are several teams that haven't had anyone from the 2009 draft make the majors yet.  That year was just not a good year talent wise.  


ETA.  Apologies for jumping on a late point in the post.  I firmly believe that Wade/Heck had turned the ship around (through drafts and trades) before Luhnow took over.  Not convinced Luhnow is an improvement.  Crane is an improvement, no way Drayton would have held out this long.  But in my opinion, Wade/Heck were doing well.

1570
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Player Development Case Study
« on: August 08, 2014, 01:50:52 pm »
So … Is there a point to all this?  I’m not sure.  Maybe it is just further confirmation that the previous regime's drafting record was abysmal.  

You can't ignore J.D. as being part of the 2009 draft just because he was drafted in the 20th round.  2009 was the worst draft year of Wade/Heck as far as early picks go and their first pick was 21st.  They were hoping for Shelby Miller when he was snagged 2 picks earlier.  Yeah sure they missed on Trout, but so did everyone else (including the Angels who used their second pick in the first round on Trout)   Plus, Keuchel, JD and Kike are making that draft look a whole lot better.    They had plenty of good drafts.    2012, regarded as one of the best drafts ever by the Astros, was driven by Heck's research.  




1571
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014
« on: August 08, 2014, 01:02:38 pm »
This article covers his choice to go pro pretty well

In the end, he decided that partying and drinking weren't distractions he wanted in the way of his professional baseball career

1572
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014
« on: August 08, 2014, 09:01:05 am »
Under the radar?  Ruiz is in Law's top 50.  Hader isn't exactly a secret either. 

On a side note, good debut for Phillips at Lancaster,  3 for 5 with a double.  He was picked off first after his first inning single.  Just turned 20 at the end of May.  Having a statement year.   Might find his way onto some lists if he can keep up his pace from QC.



Might be interesting to see if Phillips makes the hot sheet.  526/526/842 in his first 4 games at Lancaster (After smacking 6 HRs in his last 8 games at QC, then a hot start at Lancaster.  His stock is shooting through the roof. 

1573
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014
« on: August 06, 2014, 11:57:26 am »
Teoscar looks to be a player.  Made a damn fine play in center, and looks like he knows what he is doing in the batters box.

Awesome.  A good example where a box score doesn't tell all because 3 strikeouts and an infield single would have suggested differently.

1574
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014
« on: August 05, 2014, 08:47:29 am »
Luhnow was on the radio broadcast the night of the trade and was asked to name some guys in the minors that may be "under the radar" and he said I'll give you two names that are at Lancaster. They were Ruiz and Hader.

Under the radar?  Ruiz is in Law's top 50.  Hader isn't exactly a secret either. 

On a side note, good debut for Phillips at Lancaster,  3 for 5 with a double.  He was picked off first after his first inning single.  Just turned 20 at the end of May.  Having a statement year.   Might find his way onto some lists if he can keep up his pace from QC.


1575
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Rule 5
« on: August 04, 2014, 03:45:27 pm »
This article just goes over those who might be added, and assumes that finding room will be difficult.  I guess it's a point of contention amongst some people, but finding room on the 40 man for new players seems pretty easy to me. 

Have to find room off the 25 man for those that aren't ready

1576
Talk Zone / Re: Luhnow open to trading Keuchel, McHugh and Cosart
« on: July 31, 2014, 01:12:08 pm »
Apparently David Price will be on the move.  The starter market likely to be on hold till it is over.

1577
Talk Zone / Re: Luhnow open to trading Keuchel, McHugh and Cosart
« on: July 31, 2014, 11:51:04 am »
Cardinals Acquire Lackey; Joe Kelly, Allen Craig To Boston.

Takes one of the major buyers for a starter off the table but removes another available pitcher.  Pirates, Dodgers, Orioles maybe others still looking.  (again given the years of control, contenders may not be the only teams calling)

1578
Talk Zone / Re: Luhnow open to trading Keuchel, McHugh and Cosart
« on: July 31, 2014, 09:59:07 am »
Any chance a package of Cosart(or McHugh), Sipp and Carter could land Josh Bell?  


ETA:
They were looking at lefty relievers, a starter and Marlon Byrd.  This would be 3 controllable players for many years.  For one of the best outfield prospects.

1579
Talk Zone / Re: Luhnow open to trading Keuchel, McHugh and Cosart
« on: July 31, 2014, 09:28:25 am »
This is interesting because no one knew the As were still looking for a starter and it removes the biggest available starter off the market. 

1580
Game Zone 2014 Archive / Re: Athletics @ Astros 7/30/14
« on: July 30, 2014, 03:49:57 pm »
Oakland is #1 in runs scored this year.  Complete game against them is a nice achievement.

1583
Talk Zone / Re: Luhnow open to trading Keuchel, McHugh and Cosart
« on: July 29, 2014, 02:25:08 pm »
Another thing to take into account is that it's not just contenders that will come calling about those 3.  Any club could be interested in one of them.

1584
Talk Zone / Re: Luhnow open to trading Keuchel, McHugh and Cosart
« on: July 29, 2014, 08:45:46 am »
Yep, especially for the level of pitcher that we would be giving up. Nothing against these guys, but none have the stuff/track record of even Norris. Maybe they could make another Fowler-type deal, I don't know.

You undervalue good young pitching.  Norris never put together the year Keuchel or McHugh are having.   Nor did Bud ever have the hype that Cosart has.   Lyles never had an ERA below 5.    And you are talking about pitchers that are under club control through 2018 (2019 for Cosart and McHugh).  No doubt clubs are going to bring the no track record to the table.  But the Astros aren't in any need of making a deal. 


1585
Talk Zone / Re: Luhnow open to trading Keuchel, McHugh and Cosart
« on: July 29, 2014, 05:42:51 am »
I know you know that Hoes was not the #1 or even the #2 piece for Norris. That said, I have no idea what one of those pitchers would fetch in trade. I suppose Cosart would bring the most because he has the fastball and the pedigree.

I do, but Hoes was billed a mlb ready bat.  Just don't think you are going to get a mlb ready bat that will be a key player.  And just another young bat isn't needed.  Though given the years of club control they would be giving up in these pitchers you'd like to thin k they could get somebody good.  But it would have to be better than Santana level talent in my opinion and clubs just don't give that up very often. 

1586
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014
« on: July 29, 2014, 05:35:50 am »
Hader did not let the past few days bother him on the mound last night.  4 shutout innings in a tandem save.  single, double, walk and 6 Ks against him.  Now has 111Ks in 99 innings.

1587
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014
« on: July 28, 2014, 05:28:14 pm »
Nash DL'd after being injured in a 1B collision last night.

Bad timing given his .282/.404/.679 numbers over the last 24 games.

If he didn't have bad luck, he'd have no luck at all.

1588
Talk Zone / Re: Luhnow open to trading Keuchel, McHugh and Cosart
« on: July 28, 2014, 04:57:32 pm »
Question for any and all takers. If you were GM and were offered a bat you consider good value in return for either Cosart, Keuchel or McHugh who would you offer.
I know it doesn't work that way but...

No offense to Hoes, but if it's another Hoes type bat, pass.  It is just so highly doubtful anyone is going to trade an impact player for any of these 3 that it isn't worth it.  Teams are still way over-evaluating their prospects.

1589
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: MLB Pipeline Top 100 Prospects
« on: July 28, 2014, 03:52:01 pm »
??? Is this a question (how many?) or a statement (didn't break his leg,...)?

I've read a couple of places where he was being argued at #1.  Without the injury he may very well have cracked it for a few of the lists.  (sorry for the bad grammar)

1590
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: MLB Pipeline Top 100 Prospects
« on: July 28, 2014, 12:27:01 pm »
Yeah, that was written in January.  At the time, there was some sentiment that he could (likely) start at AA and reach the majors this season.  Obviously, that hasn't happened with injuries keeping him out.  With Buxton out, Bryant has taken over that spot for some.  Even though he'll end up missing half the season, Correa has moved up, passing up some guys who haven't graduated.  

If Correa didn't break, many would have had him #1 (or at least of ahead of Buxton)

1591
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: MLB Pipeline Top 100 Prospects
« on: July 28, 2014, 10:33:36 am »
From tweets, Correa could be/will be #1 next year if Buxton graduates from the list

Buxton isn't graduating next year.  He's had a whole 69 at bats at high-A this year. 

1592
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014
« on: July 26, 2014, 06:15:03 pm »
I'd really expect the Astros to draft young men with better judgment than that. 

This is as close to a pass as it gets.  When some prima donna comes though and gets his ass kicked from here to Sunday and then gets promoted on what has a better chance of being a PR move then baseball move, yeah, unreal.

That being said, he should zip it.

1593
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014
« on: July 25, 2014, 04:50:48 pm »
Ironic all this seems.  If Appel was in need of some humble pie, then the very place he felt he didn't belong (Lancaster) is exactly where he needed to be.

1594
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014
« on: July 25, 2014, 12:55:27 pm »
Thanks for the link.  Those quotes are telling.  I guess I can understand some entitlement, but have trouble understanding how getting your ass kicked isn't sufficient motivation to fight back, and thus, get the hell out of there.  Anyways, good to see him have a outing like this to regain some confidence and get into a positive frame about his future.



Yeah, thrown back a bit by his comments.  Sounds a bit as though he felt like he wouldn't have to go through the minors like everyone else.  And through repeated beatings, he has realized the errors in his thinking.

1595
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 24, 2014, 09:01:51 am »
One thing the articles never point out is actually how much money the 5 million offer cost Aike.  He's only seeing about half that after agent fees and taxes.  So the offer for him was about 750k less. So 2.5 million versus 3.25 million. 

1596
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Rule 5
« on: July 23, 2014, 09:53:36 am »
Jayne has published A Rule 5 Draft Primer and 2014 Astros Eligible Players


Quote
List just looking at the interesting ones:
*RHP Mike Foltynewicz
LHP Tommy Shirley
*RHP Nick Tropeano
*OF Delino DeShields
*RHP Michael Feliz
*RHP Vincent Velasquez

Looking at the current 40 man it isn't hard to find 6 spots. 

1597
Game Zone 2014 Archive / Re: Astros @ Athletics July 22, 2014
« on: July 23, 2014, 09:28:59 am »
A little weird.  I spent the afternoon trying to follow the game in a place with really dodgy reception in the middle of the country, a garden spot called Lake Cadibarrawirracanna.  Got a scores after the 3rd, 6th and 10th, and after that it was about 2 hours before I got the final score, pleasant surprised to see we won.  It is tough being a baseball fan sometimes.

Bah, growing up I had to wait till morning to get the paper.  And then hope to not see the dreaded "N" next to the Astros score. 

1598
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: New Astros top 10??
« on: July 22, 2014, 04:22:04 pm »
And not to pick nits, but I don't see any scenario that DDSJr is rated over Tucker any more.

Tucker's ceiling/floor is pretty much set at useful starter/utility man.  DDS's Ceiling/floor is still a key player/never makes it.  The concern I have is how long it is taking him to develop.  But he still can do it.


1599
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: New Astros top 10??
« on: July 22, 2014, 09:54:29 am »
Gregor should be in there somewhere.

At this point he may be bumping Fontana off the list.  Hard to do more with such a short stretch of success, but he's definitely climbing fast

1600
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: New Astros top 10??
« on: July 22, 2014, 09:50:24 am »

Adjusted list:

1. Correa
2. Foltynewicz - Taking a while to put it together at AAA
3. Tropeano - I have him this high because of a high floor and he's basically ready to make the jump
4. Santana
5. Vincent Velasquez - Back quicker then I expected from the groin injury
6. McCullers, Jr.
7. Teoscar Hernandez
8. Josh Hader
9. Ruiz
10. Appel - Reports of injuries have me more hopeful
11. Michael Feliz
12. J.D. Davis
13. Derek Fisher
14. A.J. Reed
15. Kyle Smith
16. DeShields, Jr. - (looks like it takes him over a year to figure out each A level)
17. Shirley (older prospect, currently 25 at CC, but potentially a solid mid rotation starter)
18. Kemp
19. Tucker - Keeps hitting at each league
20. Fontana


Crap shoot after Correa.  Could see an argument for 6 or 7 guys at #2.  Real solid top 10.  Seems like Fisher, Reed and Davis, while not pushing the top guys yet make the top 20 real strong.  Plus a ton of folks not listed that are interesting (Brady Rogers, Gregor, Stassi, Danry Vasquez, etc)

One thing this list does show is just how bad the 2013 draft was.  Still think it was a huge mistake letting Heck go.

1601
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: New Astros top 10??
« on: July 22, 2014, 09:30:00 am »
The lists include lots of guys that they have developed well, but aren't thought of as potential superstars.  Overall, that's a great sign as those guys will definitely help.  However, they still need the really high ceiling, superstar prospects, and that's where missing on the high picks will bite you in the ass.  

High ceiling:
Correa - obvious

AAA - superstar potential
Foltynewicz - potential to be an ace, floor might be closer at this point
Santana - potential to hit 30 HRs a year, probably the weakest on this list, but still only 21 at AAA

These 3 guys are making a mockery of Lancaster:
 - Vincent Velasquez
 - McCullers, Jr.
 - Josh Hader

Ruiz -  Just turned 20 May 22.  Missed most of his senior year in high school, Improves at a ridiculous pace.  Law likes to make bold predictions ahead of the rest to make a name for himself, but #47 is a huge jump up his list

Michael Feliz


That's 5 potential front of the rotation/ace pitchers, third baseman, shortstop and right fielder/dh.  That got some superstar cogs if they develop well.  Should get 2 more guys next year.  All of these guys might flop, but can't miss superstars don't exist.  Even the great Kris Bryant may flop.




1602
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014
« on: July 21, 2014, 03:44:38 pm »
Conrad Gregor promoted from Lancaster today.

Wow that was quick.  Making room for Reed?  Nash to AAA or is there room at DH?

ETA.

Perhaps this is why:
HBP: Meredith (by Claudio).

Of course he walked and singled after that

1603
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: New Astros top 10??
« on: July 21, 2014, 02:21:54 pm »
Last year's midseason thread

What a difference a year makes.  My list from last year:
Singleton, Springer and Cozart no longer eligible.  Appel has dropped off the top 10 for me.    

1. Correa
2. Foltynewicz
3. Aiken (2014 Draft)
4. Tropeano
5. Santana
6. Teoscar Hernandez
7. McCullers, Jr.
8. Josh Hader
9. Michael Feliz
10. Kyle Smith
11. Vincent Velasquez - (He'd of been pushing top 5 if it wasn't for the groin set back)
12. Appel
13. Ruiz
14. DeShields, Jr. - (looks like it takes him over a year to figure out each A level)
15. Shirley (older prospect, currently 25 at CC, but potentially a solid mid rotation starter)
16. Kemp
17. Fontana

2014 Draftees Fisher, Reed, Davis and Nix may all fit in there somewhere, so I guess that fills out a top 21




Adjusted list:

1. Correa
2. Foltynewicz - Taking a while to put it together at AAA
3. Tropeano - I have him this high because of a high floor and he's basically ready to make the jump
4. Santana
5. Vincent Velasquez - Back quicker then I expected from the groin injury
6. McCullers, Jr.
7. Teoscar Hernandez
8. Josh Hader
9. Ruiz
10. Appel - Reports of injuries have me more hopeful
11. Michael Feliz
12. J.D. Davis
13. Derek Fisher
14. A.J. Reed
15. Kyle Smith
16. DeShields, Jr. - (looks like it takes him over a year to figure out each A level)
17. Shirley (older prospect, currently 25 at CC, but potentially a solid mid rotation starter)
18. Kemp
19. Tucker - Keeps hitting at each league
20. Fontana


Crap shoot after Correa.  Could see an argument for 6 or 7 guys at #2.  Real solid top 10.  Seems like Fisher, Reed and Davis, while not pushing the top guys yet make the top 20 real strong.  Plus a ton of folks not listed that are interesting (Brady Rogers, Gregor, Stassi, Danry Vasquez, etc)

1604
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: New Astros top 10??
« on: July 21, 2014, 02:11:58 pm »
Kieth Law's Top 50 includes 3 Astros:
#3 Correa
#33 Appel
and........

#47 Ruiz



Guess this blows up the theory that they should have taken Buxton because McCullers could still have been landed anyways (just not Ruiz).




1605
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 21, 2014, 01:36:54 pm »
No pre-draft physicals has to be one of the dumbest things in a long line of stupid things in sports.  Other than using it as a bargaining chip, what in the world could possibly be the logic for not allowing pre draft physicals?

In what way does letting players get drafted, that end up failing a physical, benefit anyone?

There is no benefit to anyone.  The lack of pre-draft medical reports directly led to 8 million dollars not going to the players.  Yes the Astros will spend more next year but I believe slot values below them will drop to make up for it. 

1606
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 20, 2014, 07:01:28 pm »
Some farmers are better than others, but if your seeds never germinate your farm is fucked.

Which is why you plant a shit load of seeds

1607
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 19, 2014, 06:52:16 pm »
I can't help but think the Aiken's felt the Astros should have stuck to their original offer of 6.5 million. They probably resented it being reduced on a speculative situation. They didn't want to negotiate, they wanted the Astros to honor the initial offer. It's a position they may one day regret.

The eerie feeling is that no sane person would turn down the 5 million.  Which could mean they have something else planned.  Maybe they are sitting on evidence that the Astros organization leaked medical information.  Maybe they feel they have enough backing to make Aiken a free agent.  Who knows

1608
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 18, 2014, 04:37:01 pm »
One thing is for certain if Aiken goes to JUCO or indy ball and the Astros end up with 1-1 and 1-2.  He isn't getting picked in the top 2

1609
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 18, 2014, 04:29:47 pm »
The slotting doesn't tie Nix to Aiken, Nix's demand for five time over his slot does.

Though it does put a little extra pressure on Aiken.  His decision directly effected his buddy. 

1610
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 18, 2014, 04:18:16 pm »
Jim Callis @jimcallisMLB  ·  1m

Baseball source: @Astros did not sign Aiken or Nix either. Houston gets No. 2 overall pick next year. @MLBDraft



Likely the best case scenario occurerd for the Astros after the bad news came back in the MRI

1611
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 18, 2014, 03:59:58 pm »
Pencils down

1612
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 18, 2014, 03:48:22 pm »
lol @ Twitter

Ron @Rontrarian

Jacob Nix just favorited my tweet about UCLA's potential pitching staff. Uhh...

Actually looks like he did.  Interesting

1613
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 18, 2014, 03:40:42 pm »
And I'd guess real good news because 5.75 million sounds like Aiken still has good value.

1614
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 18, 2014, 03:38:31 pm »
Actually that would be bad news for LSU as the Stros would seemingly have enough for Marshall

1615
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 18, 2014, 03:20:45 pm »
So anyone knows what has to happen for to make the deadline happy with a sign? 

1616
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 18, 2014, 03:15:39 pm »
This is all Rodon's fault.  Had he not fallen from grace this would be somebody else's problem.

1617
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 18, 2014, 03:13:48 pm »
I just get the feeling he isn't signing.  Hopefully next years draft is loaded.

If his worth has fallen to near nothing then this is the best outcome by far.  But if that is true then one would think he would sign.  Likely the truth is in the middle.

1618
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 18, 2014, 03:01:20 pm »
Little more than an hour left to get this done....

tick tick tick...   Aiken's camp knows what they will do.  Nix and Marshall on the other hand, likely pacing.

Though I suppose it's possible the Aiken camp isn't settled on what they will do, perhaps some soul searching going on there.

1619
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 18, 2014, 12:54:24 pm »
3 hours till deadline and not even a peep on mlbtr about Aiken since Tuesday. 

Edit:
As noted on Astros County.  Mac Marshall has changed his reply on whether the Astros have contacted him from no to no comment.

1620
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 18, 2014, 09:57:42 am »
I feel for the kid.  From a financial stand point it is not anywhere near the kick in the balls Dickey got.  But I imagine the whole thing is devastating to him.    He was on top of the world on June 6th.  #1 overall all a 6.5 million dollar pay day.  Dreams of pitching on a major league mound well on there way to coming true.  Then BAM!!.  Sorry kid, your pitching days are numbered.  Could be next week, could be 5 years.  Sooner or later that tiny ligament will give out.  His agent is crying financial misery but I'd guess Aiken has gone through a myriad of emotions after learning the news.  And I'd also guess given that he still is going to get half of what he was expecting that the baseball end of things has been much more painful.

Again though, still all wild ass speculation, since the actual facts in this case cannot be talked about

1621
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 18, 2014, 09:46:51 am »
You probably know the story, but R.A. Dickey had problems after being taken by the rangers in the first round out of college. He was missing the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow joint, according to wikipedia.

And the numbers behind that:
Quote
So the Rangers then pulled their offer of $810,000 and replaced it with a far cheaper deal of $75,000.

Dickey has said that it feels like, "Winning the lottery and then losing the ticket." Dickey signed the measly $75,000 because he did not feel another team would take a shot at him and his missing UCL. 

So Dickey received just over 9% of the initial offer

1622
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 18, 2014, 09:32:31 am »
I hope the Astros keep failing to sign picks but still offer 40% of slot every year so that finally in 2020 we'll have the top 8 picks of the draft and some ridiculous pool amount.

The Astros would have to sign next year's 2nd pick or lose that pick forever.

1623
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 18, 2014, 09:21:43 am »
And his elbow could go kaput while pitching at UCLA or, more likely, a jr. college where he can re-enter next year rather than take the chance of three years of college wear-n-tear. In fact, I read where he may not be able to attend a four year school and retain his eligibility since he had an agent. Aiken's options really are limited. I feel bad for him. He seems like a fine young fellow who has worked hard and done all the right things to be a success as a baseball pitcher. This sucks all around.

He should be thankful of the 40% rule the current CBA has.  He's going to receive a 3.2 million dollar pay day even though he apparently is genetically (if everything leaked is actually true) unable to survive as a major league pitcher.  And should be kissing mom and pop everyday for making sure he wasn't overworked in high school like many other pitchers are.  I'm sure we all have met a guy that was heavily scouted in high school (and earlier) until he blew out his elbow.

1624
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 18, 2014, 09:13:24 am »
Unless he really believes the Astros are fucking him around and shares information proactively

If this was true then his camp would have brought forth medical data or at least directly disputed the Astros claims which they have not done.  

1625
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 18, 2014, 08:57:25 am »
In the end, Aiken will be an Astro by the end of the day.  He literally has no cards to play.  The Astros aren't going to receive any more bad press than they already got so I don't see the pressure there.  3.2 million is the biggest bonus Aiken will ever see.  No team will be privy to medical information before his next draft.  Whose going to spend a top 10 pick that the another mlb team ran from after seeing the results of an MRI?  Doesn't matter what Aiken doesn't between now and his next draft the medical concern will be too great for a team to spend a top 10 pick.

1626
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014
« on: July 16, 2014, 03:14:21 pm »
Little Mash Rambler.  Ah... Little Nash rambler.  Got it


Hey buddy how can I get this car out of second gear!

1627
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 16, 2014, 01:16:53 pm »
Meh. Barrett Loux was a safe college pick until AZ saw his physical and declined to sign him.  Rangers ultimately did (much to my chagrin), and Loux is currently rehabbing from TJ surgery...  Without pre-draft physicals, its all a crapshoot (be it Aiken, Nola, etc.).

But Barrett Loux was already questionable given his history at A&M and was not a consensus first rounder.  Nola is a much safer pick than Loux was.


1628
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014
« on: July 16, 2014, 11:52:32 am »
His horn went beep beep beep.

Not sure what you were trying to convey with this?

1629
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 16, 2014, 11:44:57 am »
Your theory is 3 more years for his elbow to explode?

No my theory is that there were safer bets like Nola that may not have ace ceiling but could be a top notch #2.  And with likely ~2 years less development time.  2 years less time for bad shit to happen.  That is all.  That's not to say that Aiken was the wrong pick.  Just one that comes with a higher risk and likely higher reward. 


1630
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 16, 2014, 10:46:48 am »
The frustrating thing is it sounds like they couldn't have done anything to prevent this situation, just snakebit.

Well you could have drafted a safer pick.  High school pitcher = huge risk.

1631
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 16, 2014, 10:23:36 am »
This is the beauty in all this: at some point, they have to come clean.  Either they believe (and feel everyone but the Astros will agree with them) he has no greater long-term risk and go to school, or they tacitly acknowledge that the Astros' concerns are legit and sign.

As to Law and Callis and the "If he were a free agent" and "the system sucks" off-point ramblings.  If Aiken truly has a problem in the eyes of honest assessors, then this "sucky system" produced a crapload of money for someone who otherwise would not have got it.   In other words, instead of screwing him, it gave him an undeserving windfall.  

Yeah basically when the MRI came back with bad news, the Astros had already lost (meaning they were already out a 1-1 pick).  The good news is they have 2 viable (but not as good as 1-1) contingency plans in either adding the full trifecta of Aieken, Nix and Marshall or getting 1-2 next year. 

1632
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 16, 2014, 09:50:36 am »
Well, they are not both writing a check and getting the pick next year.  If they write the check, it means Aiken signs and there is no pick next year.  If there is a pick, it means that Aiken did not sign and thus, no check.

If Aiken's camp truly believes the propaganda they are spewing, he won't sign for 3.2.  (Which may very well be the best result for the Astros at this point).   I think every team in the majors would trade a 2nd(Marshall), 3rd (Assumed Aiken worth) and 4th (Nix) round pick for pick 1-2 in the following years draft.

1633
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 16, 2014, 09:41:02 am »
In order to receive the compensation pick (second overall), they have to offer him 40% of the top pick's allotted value (3.2 million I presume).  So, one could argue that it is riskier not to offer him that much.

Yeah if they accidentally drafted me, they would likely offer me 3.2 million just to either have the slot money for Nix and Marshall or hope I'm brain dead and they get next year's second pick.

If i read the crawfish article correctly, TJ likely leads to a pitcher with less velocity and perhaps one that doesn't have the ability to make it (certainly not an ace).  Or just let it play out and hope it's the tiny ligament that could.  Of course all this is based on internet interpretation of hear-say.  

1635
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014
« on: July 16, 2014, 08:43:26 am »
Nash trying to put himself back into people's thoughts:

July's slash line so far:
375/429/875

1636
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 15, 2014, 01:44:07 pm »
Astroscounty had a post theorizing that, if the Astros were willing to incur the 75% tax on the overage, they could probably give Aiken the original $6.5m plus sign Nix and Marshall for a combined $2.5(?)m without losing future draft picks.
 

Well that would be assuming that  Marshal takes 1 million then

1637
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 15, 2014, 12:55:27 pm »
A little more optimistic viewpoint here. http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2014/07/14/could-marshall-nix-and-aiken-be-band-of-brothers/#22102103=0&24048101=0

The banter between Nix and Marshall is interesting.

They may only need to get Aiken down to 5.5 to land all 3.  Get the feeling Marshall and Nix are similar bonus needs.  So with the 688k the astros could go over without losing a pick they'd have the space.  5 million to Aiken makes more sense so they don't get hit with a luxury tax. 

1638
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 15, 2014, 12:35:13 pm »
Why aren't the kids undergoing physicals prior to the draft? NFL prospects are poked and prodded for months by every team interested in them. Particularly with all the TJ surgery going on it would seem a natural thing to do.

Would not be surprised to see some rule changes in the next agreement on medical screenings pre-draft given this debacle.




1639
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 15, 2014, 10:44:19 am »
Second pick next year is sounding better by the moment.  

from mlbtraderumors:
Quote
ULY 15: The Astros believe that Aiken’s MRI revealed a “significant abnormality,” Major League sources tell Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Aiken’s adviser, Casey Close of Excel Sports Management, tells Rosenthal that the team has made just one revised offer — a bonus of $3,168,840. That amount represents the minimum bonus Houston would need to offer in order to receive the second pick in next year’s draft as compensation.

Not the 5 million figure.  Sounds like he's damaged goods

1640
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 14, 2014, 11:48:57 am »
They can't go down to close to the wire with Aiken and stil get Nix done.

Nix is just waiting to put ink on the paper.  Marshall on the other hand would likely require more time.


1641
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 14, 2014, 11:36:41 am »
When is the deadline
7/18.  Not sure the time

1642
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 14, 2014, 08:34:20 am »
You're probably right. It'll have to come to a head this week with the signing deadline.

Yup.  Aiken, Nix and possibly Marshall's career paths in life will be decided by Friday. 8.5 million dollars being tossed around.  No biggie.

Plus for the Astros you have the 1st, 57th and 104th ranked players hanging in the balance.  (to possible add to their alread nice 31st, 41st and 118th players).  could go from a poor draft to a great draft. 


1643
Talk Zone / Re: Bad Day for Former Astros
« on: July 09, 2014, 09:46:50 am »
J.D. Martinez went 3-5 yesterday to raise his BA to .331.

Yeah it was a bit shocking they didn't really give him a chance this spring given the work he did to his swing in the offseason and the short term success he had with it in fall/winter ball.  The guy throughout his career has always exceeded expectations with hard work and a Bagwellian drive to improve himself.   Hate to see the team make mistakes like this, but I'm glad he is having success.   

1644
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 08, 2014, 03:03:18 pm »


Nix is signed

Marshall has already started classes at LSU - he can't sign.

Are you sure?

This is dated June 27th:
Quote
“I’m still talking to Mac Marshall and hopeful that we can potentially convince him to turn pro, but that’s going to be a tough one. He was a little later pick and he’s got a very well known, strong commitment that to this point he intends on honoring.”

Elias said he’s not having ongoing conversations with Marshall, but that the lines were open.

“It’s certainly something that maybe as the deadline nears will intensify,” Elias said.

1645
Talk Zone / Re: Aiken
« on: July 08, 2014, 12:15:23 pm »
The Stros are also dealing with needing to assign Aiken to get the extra #1 slot money to officially sign Nix (who is eating an extra 1.4).  The 5 million maybe be high just to assure the sign.

It also might open the door for Marshall

ETA:
If they sign Aiken for 5 million. then by my calculation they'd have 2.14 million (18th pick money) available to Marshall plus they could go an extra 668k more without losing a pick.  So they could have the ability to offer Marshall 2.8 million (18th pick money) if Aiken signs for 5.


1646
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: New Astros top 10??
« on: June 27, 2014, 07:00:23 pm »
Wow, punting on Appel a bit fast there? I just find it hard to believe a single MLB team would take Tropeano over Appel right now, and probably many of them would still take Appel over Folty too, let alone Kyle Smith. I think it's great that Tropeano and Smith are having such success at AAA and A+/AA, but minor league success isn't everything, and Appel's stuff is reportedly still the same (if not as consistent). His prospect star has taken a big hit, for sure, I just don't think it's taken quite as massive of a hit as you think.


I probably have Smith to high on the list, but I have punted on Appel being a top of the rotation starter.  And a mid rotation ceiling guy struggling is not high on my list. 

1647
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: New Astros top 10??
« on: June 26, 2014, 02:31:11 pm »
I think you are undervaluing Shirley.  He has struggled with injuries every year, but has been dominant when healthy ... like Brad Lidge in some ways.  His age at AA is probably more a function of his injuries and experience than anything else.  I think he still has a pretty high ceiling.

Higher ceiling than a #3?  (I value a solid #3 about the same as a closer) 

1648
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / New Astros top 10??
« on: June 26, 2014, 12:31:26 pm »
Last year's midseason thread

What a difference a year makes.  My list from last year:
Quote
1. Correa
2. Singleton
3. Appel (2013 Draft)
4. Foltynewicz
5. Springer
6. McCullers, Jr.
7. DeShields, Jr.
8. Cozart
9. Tropeano
10. Fontana

Singleton, Springer and Cozart no longer eligible.  Appel has dropped off the top 10 for me.    

1. Correa
2. Foltynewicz
3. Aiken (2014 Draft)
4. Tropeano
5. Santana
6. Teoscar Hernandez
7. McCullers, Jr.
8. Josh Hader
9. Michael Feliz
10. Kyle Smith
11. Vincent Velasquez - (He'd of been pushing top 5 if it wasn't for the groin set back)
12. Appel
13. Ruiz
14. DeShields, Jr. - (looks like it takes him over a year to figure out each A level)
15. Shirley (older prospect, currently 25 at CC, but potentially a solid mid rotation starter)
16. Kemp
17. Fontana

2014 Draftees Fisher, Reed, Davis and Nix may all fit in there somewhere, so I guess that fills out a top 21


1649
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status
« on: June 12, 2014, 10:15:31 am »
Bryant would have wanted closer to the full slot amount at 1-1. He held out until near the signing deadline in order to get 6.7 million from the Cubs which was the full amount assigned for pick 1-2 (6,708,400 to be exact). Appel was an easier and cheaper sign due to him being a senior and a hometown guy. Why not take Appel when he's seen as an equal talent to Bryant, is from Houston, and also would give them more leftover cash to work with on a guy like Manaea? Manaea wanted over 3 million. Manaea was one of the only big-time tough-sign guys that they saw in the draft and they wanted him at 2-1.

http://jimcallis.mlblogs.com/2014/04/29/mike-elias-talks-about-the-astros-no-1-pick/

“Our assessment of the Draft class last year was that we didn’t feel like it was particularly deep. There weren’t obvious high school players with strong college commitments or who got hurt during the season or had a big [bonus] number. We had hard time seeing who those players were. The year before, we had a list and Lance and Rio were on it. We do have a feel for it and try to take that into account. Last year, [Sean] Manaea was the the big one and we were poised to consider him with our second pick but the Royals took him.

The point is they took Appel not for the money but they thought he was BPA.  I have not read anything different.  Manaea was one of the few players they were hoping they could catch in the 2nd round because they had extra cash.  They had extra money because they felt there was no one to spend it on due to a weak draft class, not because of a failed expectation.

1650
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014
« on: June 12, 2014, 09:39:13 am »
Remember this from last year(Rio Ruiz):
http://www.spikesnstars.com/forums/index.php?topic=115414.msg481949#msg481949

Quote
167/309/288 - April
246/329/311 - May
269/330/409 - June
279/347/477 - July
298/342/558 - August
364/475/758 - Spetember (32 of 40 PAs were in the playoffs)

Well he's at it again:
April - 294/354/402
May - 290/412/439
June - 341/426/537

1651
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status
« on: June 11, 2014, 03:19:46 pm »
The reason they had a good amount of money left last year was due to the fact that they thought Manaea would fall to their second pick but the Royals surprised everyone by taking Dozier at 8 and then popped Manaea in the 30's before the Astros' second rounder.

They took the second most expensive player at 1-1 with Bryant being only slightly more expensive.  So no matter who they picked at 1-1 they were going to have about the same amount of money left in their pool.  So it's not like they tried to have extra cash.  And since Manaea was picked before the Astros second pick, they had plenty of time to draft a tougher sign.  Your logic for "The reason they had a good amount of money left last year" seems flawed.  And I read nothing that said they were expecting Manaea.  Maybe they were hoping he or someone else would be there.


1652
Talk Zone / Re: Singleton, Cosart, Zeid, and... uh... oops
« on: June 07, 2014, 11:26:18 am »
That's a career ending mistake by somebody

1653
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status
« on: June 05, 2014, 06:16:49 pm »
I like it.  The pitching depth in the minors is nuts even with Appel being awful.  He could be a fast-riser...2016 rotation?

Not a chance.  2017 is likely earliest

1654
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread
« on: June 05, 2014, 05:37:36 pm »
They are showing Kolek on mlb right now.  Grew up on ranch.  Nuff said, sign him

1655
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Draft Day Predictions
« on: June 05, 2014, 09:41:37 am »
Nola - (I think he passed Rodon as the safe choice)
Hoffman - (Going to be real tough for a team picking top 10 to choose someone who just had TJ)

1656
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014
« on: June 04, 2014, 11:50:28 am »
Maybe Santana plus a couple of these guys for a guy that has a couple years until his walk year?

Blasphemy.  The one thing the farm doesn't have a lot of you suggest to trade away.

1657
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014
« on: June 04, 2014, 02:30:39 am »
Correa supporting this line over the last 10 games:
447/553/711


1658
Talk Zone / Re: Singleton up
« on: June 02, 2014, 04:46:22 pm »
Hello future, welcome to the present

1659
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread
« on: May 31, 2014, 11:33:19 pm »
Really don't understand why Nola isn't more a part of the conversation.  A plus 2 seam fastball which sits at 93-94 all game topping out in the mid 90s.  A mid 70s curveball that is supposedly the second best curve ball in the draft.  And a nice mid to low 80s changeup which is suppose to be average at worst and also a possible plus pitch.  And he is suppose to have impeccable command of all 3.  Isn't that pretty much the exact same arsenal that Oswalt had?

Improved every year at college.  Like to see a guy that is getting better.

To me he's the safest bet and would likely land well under slot. 


1660
Talk Zone / Re: Carter
« on: May 13, 2014, 10:00:16 am »
Over the last 10 games Singleton has struck out a total of 4 times (including a 3 strikeout game on May 10th).  He's got no shot of making the majors with numbers like that.


ETA.
And he has walked 8 times in that stretch.  Obviously not swinging the bat enough


ETA2
Not to mention there is the Cardinal cast off Adron Chambers who is the obvious next call up.  He supporting an OPS a full 100 points higher than Singleton.

1661
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: BA Prospect hot sheet - 2014
« on: May 09, 2014, 01:23:38 pm »
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-may-9-big-bad-bryant/

Quote
2. Teoscar Hernandez, cf, Astros
Teoscar Hernandez
Team: high Class A Lancaster (California)
Age: 21
Why He’s Here: .556/.625/.926 (15-for-27), 7 R, 4 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBIs, 5 BB, 8 SO, 2-for-2 SB

The Scoop: Yes, Hernandez plays in Lancaster, but at the end of April, the versatile outfielder wasn’t having a whole lot of fun hitting in one of baseball’s best hitting environments. A ferocious tear this week, much of it on the road, has raised his batting average 60 points, his slugging percentage nearly 100 points and put his season numbers right where you would hope to see them. Hernandez is a “cheap” five-tool player with no true plus tools, but a whole lot of 50s on his scouting card. If he can refine his routes to be an average center fielder, then he could be a regular.


Quote
8. Mike Foltynewicz, rhp, Astros
mike-foltynewicz-2013-tf
Team: Triple-A Oklahoma City (Pacific Coast)
Age: 22
Why He’s Here: 1-0, 1.50, 6 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 HR, 12 SO, 2 BB

The Scoop: The 2010 first-rounder took his lumps at Triple-A early in April, but he’s turned in five satisfactory appearances in a row in Oklahoma City’s tandem-starter routine, culminating in a 12-strikeout gem (see above) on Monday. While he’s gone 3-0, 1.96 with 25 whiffs in 23 innings in his past five games, Foltynewicz continues to hand out too many free passes, with 3.9 walks per nine innings weighing him down even during his effective stretch.

1662
Game Zone 2014 Archive / Re: Astros @ Tigers Cinco de Mayo 2014
« on: May 05, 2014, 04:27:44 pm »
Perfecto alert. It has to happen sooner or later. This team is too bad to avoid it.

Early jinx on the other guy?

1663
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread
« on: May 05, 2014, 09:35:05 am »
HS pitchers are riskier than college pitchers.
HS hitters are riskier than college hitters.
Pitchers are riskier than hitters.

If one lets risk be their guiding factor - and I don't think anyone would argue the truth of the above 3 statements - then, logically, drafting a college hitter would be the best 1/1 pick.

So, do you want the Astros to take Brad Zimmer? I didn't think so. You take the individual that you think has the best chance at being a great, perennial-All-Star-level player. Risk is just one element that you weigh alongside all the other pros and cons that each player has. And Brady Aiken will probably not be graded the same in the Risk column as David Clyde or Brien Taylor or even Tyler Kolek.

Talent weighs into the picture.  I would not have been upset with Kris Bryant last year.  This year, Kris Bryant doesn't exist.


Extra Note on the 2012 strategy as it pertains to taking Aiken with the expected money savings.  The Astros have picks 1, 37 and 42.  But unfortunately the Marlins have 2, 36, 39, 43.  Meaning any big names that fall due to signability, the Marlins will have first pick. 

1664
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread
« on: May 02, 2014, 02:30:30 pm »
Is it? Would your opinion be different if the Royals had taken Clayton Kershaw (1.7) instead of Hochevar?

6 teams passed over Kershaw.  They all likely wish they had taken Kershaw, though the Rays probably aren't as disappointed.

1665
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread
« on: May 02, 2014, 02:18:24 pm »
As was mentioned, Hochevar played 3 years at Tennessee and 1 year of Indy league ball before being drafted 1.1

Yeah likely the website doesn't have a value for independent ball and that's why it was an H

1666
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread
« on: May 02, 2014, 10:41:30 am »
With the new draft rules, it's a little surprising that we haven't seen any high school pitchers taken in the first 3 picks yet as you'd like to think those would come at a big discount for later picks.  Though last year was not a deep draft and the year before it was new.  Kohl Stewart was a high school pitcher that was toyed at with the first few picks.  Figuring to take a big discount.  He fell to 4th though as teams went with safer options.  He is fairing well so far;
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=kohl-stewart

1667
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread
« on: May 02, 2014, 10:26:51 am »
I lost the late 60s on my pull.  Here are the rest:
19682June-RegPete Broberg **Oakland AthleticsPMLB1969-1978Palm Beach (West Palm Beach,FL)
19673June-RegMike GarmanBoston Red SoxPMLB1967-1979Caldwell (Caldwell,ID)
19663June-RegWayne TwitchellHouston AstrosPMLB1966-1979Wilson (Portland,OR)
19652June-RegLes RohrNew York MetsPMLB1967-1969Billings West (Billings,MT)
19653June-RegJoe ColemanWashington Senators IIPMLB1965-1982Natick (Natick,MA)

1668
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread
« on: May 02, 2014, 10:21:37 am »
I'm unable/too lazy to research this

It is ridiculous easy to do this with http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draft/research.asp

Here are the top 3 picks that were high school/pitchers.  Each pick into a draft having less high talent/safer players to choose from.  Therefore the farther you go into a draft the better the chances of finding those aces that were drafted out of high school.

YearPick#PlayerTeamHighest LevelH/CFrom
20102June-RegJameson TaillonPittsburgh PiratesPAAA2011-2013HThe Woodlands (The Woodlands,TX) TX
20061June-RegLuke HochevarKansas City RoyalsPMLB2003-2014HFowler (Fowler,CO)
20023June-RegChris GrulerCincinnati RedsPA2002-2006HLiberty (Brentwood,CA) CA
19992June-RegJosh BeckettFlorida MarlinsPMLB2000-2014HSpring (Spring,TX) TX
19911June-RegBrien TaylorNew York YankeesPAA1992-2000HEast Carteret (Beaufort,NC) NC
19893June-RegRoger SalkeldSeattle MarinersPMLB1989-2000HSaugus (Saugus,CA) CA
19883June-RegSteve AveryAtlanta BravesPMLB1988-2003HJohn F. Kennedy (Taylor,MI) MI
19873June-RegWillie BanksMinnesota TwinsPMLB1987-2010HSt. Anthony (Jersey City,NJ) NJ
19823June-RegJimmy JonesSan Diego PadresPMLB1982-1993HJefferson (Dallas,TX) TX
19772June-RegBill GullicksonMontreal ExposPMLB1977-1994HCatholic Academy (Joliet,IL) IL
19762June-RegPat UnderwoodDetroit TigersPMLB1976-1984HKokomo (Kokomo,IN) IN
19752June-RegMike LentzSan Diego PadresPAA1977-1978HJuanita (Kirkland,WA) WA
19742June-RegTommy BoggsTexas RangersPMLB1974-1985HLanier (Austin,TX) TX
19731June-RegDavid ClydeTexas RangersPMLB1973-1981HWestchester (Houston,TX) TX
19723June-RegLarry ChristensonPhiladelphia PhilliesPMLB1972-1983HMarysville-Pilchuck (Marysville,WA) WA
19712June-RegJay FranklinSan Diego PadresPMLB1971-1977HJames Madison (Vienna,VA) VA
19692June-RegJ.R. RichardHouston AstrosPMLB1969-1983HLincoln (Ruston,LA) LA

1669
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread
« on: May 02, 2014, 09:24:35 am »
Drafting a pitcher is a risk.  Drafting any player before he's done growing/filling out and with 3 years less time to observe them is a risk.  Putting both those together at 1/1 is gamble. 


1670
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread
« on: May 02, 2014, 09:09:37 am »
If the HS pitcher is more polished, I would say he's the safer bet, even if his ceiling is lower (though Aiken's is still very high).
I'll let history speak for itself.   Three High School Pitchers drafted 1/1 since 1965.  1 bombed, 1 managed to start 73 games at a 4.63 ERA, and Hochevar who is far from an ace (courtesy of thebaseballcube.com):
YearPlayerTeamPositionHighest LevelYears PlayedC/HFrom
2013Mark AppelHouston AstrosPA+2010-2014CStanford University
2012Carlos CorreaHouston AstrosSSA+2012-2014HPuerto Rico Baseball Acad (Gurabo,PR)
2011Gerrit ColePittsburgh PiratesPMLB2009-2014CUCLA
2010Bryce HarperWashington NationalsOFMLB2010-2014CCollege of Southern Nevada
2009Stephen StrasburgWashington NationalsRHPMLB2007-2014CSan Diego State University
2008Tim BeckhamTampa Bay RaysSSMLB2008-2014HGriffin (Griffin,GA)
2007David PriceTampa Bay RaysPMLB2005-2014CVanderbilt University
2006Luke HochevarKansas City RoyalsPMLB2003-2014HFowler (Fowler,CO)
2005Justin UptonArizona DiamondbacksssMLB2006-2014HGreat Bridge (Chesapeake,VA)
2004Matt BushSan Diego PadresSSAA2004-2011HMission Bay (San Diego,CA)
2003Delmon YoungTampa Bay RaysOFMLB2004-2014HCamarillo (Camarillo,CA)
2002Bryan BullingtonPittsburgh PiratesPMLB2000-2013CBall State University
2001Joe MauerMinnesota TwinsCMLB2001-2014HCretin-Derham Hall (St. Paul,MN)
2000Adrian GonzalezFlorida Marlins1BMLB2000-2014HEastlake (Chula Vista,CA)
1999Josh HamiltonTampa Bay RaysOFMLB1999-2014HAthens Drive (Raleigh,NC)
1998Pat BurrellPhiladelphia Phillies1BMLB1996-2011CUniversity of Miami
1997Matt AndersonDetroit TigersPMLB1995-2008CRice University
1996Kris BensonPittsburgh PiratesPMLB1994-2010CClemson University
1995Darin ErstadCalifornia AngelsOFMLB1993-2009CUniversity of Nebraska
1994Paul WilsonNew York MetsPMLB1992-2008CFlorida State University
1993Alex RodriguezSeattle MarinersSSMLB1994-2013HWestminster Christian (Miami,FL)
1992Phil NevinHouston Astros3BMLB1990-2006CCal State Fullerton
1991Brien TaylorNew York YankeesPAA1992-2000HEast Carteret (Beaufort,NC)
1990Chipper JonesAtlanta BravesSSMLB1990-2012HThe Bolles School (Jacksonville,FL)
1989Ben McDonaldBaltimore OriolesPMLB1987-1997CLouisiana State University
1988Andy BenesSan Diego PadresPMLB1986-2002CUniversity of Evansville
1987Ken GriffeySeattle MarinersOFMLB1987-2010HMoeller (Cincinnati,OH)
1986Jeff KingPittsburgh PiratesSS-3BMLB1984-1999CUniversity of Arkansas
1985B.J. SurhoffMilwaukee BrewersSS-CMLB1983-2005CUniversity of North Carolina
1984Shawn AbnerNew York MetsOFMLB1984-1995HMechanicsburg Area (Mechanicsburg Area,PA)
1983Tim Belcher **Minnesota TwinsPMLB1984-2000CMount Vernon Nazarene University
1982Shawon DunstonChicago CubsSSMLB1982-2002HThomas Jefferson (Brooklyn,NY)
1981Mike MooreSeattle MarinersPMLB1980-1995COral Roberts University
1980Darryl StrawberryNew York MetsOFMLB1980-1999HCrenshaw (Los Angeles,CA)
1979Al ChambersSeattle MarinersOFMLB1979-1988HJohn Harris (Harrisburg,PA)
1978Bob HornerAtlanta Braves3BMLB1977-1988CArizona State University
1977Harold BainesChicago White Sox1B-OFMLB1977-2001HSt. Michaels (Easton,MD)
1976Floyd BannisterHouston AstrosPMLB1975-1992CArizona State University
1975Danny GoodwinCalifornia AngelsCMLB1974-1985CSouthern University
1974Bill AlmonSan Diego PadresSSMLB1974-1988CBrown University
1973David ClydeTexas RangersPMLB1973-1981HWestchester (Houston,TX)
1972Dave RobertsSan Diego Padres3BMLB1972-1982CUniversity of Oregon
1971Danny Goodwin **Chicago White SoxCMLB1974-1985HPeoria Central (Peoria,IL)
1970Mike IvieSan Diego PadresCMLB1970-1983HThe Walker School (Decatur,GA)
1969Jeff BurroughsWashington Senators IIOFMLB1969-1985HWilson (Long Beach,CA)
1968Tim FoliNew York MetsSSMLB1968-1985HNotre Dame (Sherman Oaks,CA)
1967Ron BlombergNew York Yankees1BMLB1967-1978HDruid Hills (Atlanta,GA)
1966Steve ChilcottNew York MetsC-HAntelope Valley (Lancaster,CA)
1965Rick MondayKansas City AthleticsOFMLB1965-1984CArizona State University

1671
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread
« on: May 01, 2014, 03:10:09 pm »
There may, or may not, be truth in the theory. I don't want to say to stay away from him, but I don't want to gamble unnecessarily at 1/1, either.

Isn't the definition of gambling taking a HS pitcher 1/1? 


1672
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014
« on: May 01, 2014, 03:06:11 pm »
Shirley adds 6 more innings tonight
23 1/3 28Ks to 4 BBs.  16 singles and 2 doubles

Summation:
28 1/3 34Ks to 4 BBs. 16 singles, 3 doubles and a HR




1673
Talk Zone / Re: FIELDS!
« on: April 28, 2014, 02:15:46 pm »
The projects were doomed anyway, because they were based on financial models (see above) that were more puffed up than Chris Christie on all you can eat bean and cheese burrito night.


You realize he has lost 100 pounds in the last year.

1674
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014
« on: April 24, 2014, 10:47:35 pm »
Shirley putting himself back on the prospect map.  17 and a 1/3 innings so far.  22 Ks to 3 BBs.  Given up 10 singles and 2 doubles.  G/F=7.33

Most importantly he is healthy (knock, knock)



Shirley adds 6 more innings tonight
23 1/3 28Ks to 4 BBs.  16 singles and 2 doubles




1675
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014
« on: April 21, 2014, 02:50:30 pm »
I know I asked this years ago and someone answered it, but what was his injury?  IIRC, it wasn't arm related.

Right knee injury cost him most of the 2011 season.  2012 was mostly a rehab year.  Last year was real good with an increase in velocity as the year went on.

What the heck bobby interview from last year

My healthy comment was misleading.  It's not like he's had a rash of injuries.  But one pesky one that set his career back almost 2 years.

1676
Talk Zone / Re: Porter has to go
« on: April 21, 2014, 02:34:20 pm »
For all purposes, it is the same team that was there last season, with a few exceptions.  I question why I really had different expectations. 

Because this year's team is slightly better than last year's team.  They are way under-performing right now.  Way way under-performing.  Under-performing at ridiculous rates.  

The sample size is poor.  One would assume they are about to beat the living snot out of some random team to offset their current performance.

1677
Talk Zone / Re: J.D. Martinez update
« on: April 21, 2014, 09:13:35 am »
I agree about the limited ABs in ST. They'd already made up their minds that he didn't fit going forward. Thankfully,they released Martinez and Wallace in time for those guys to catch on elsewhere.

Carter and Presley are certainly thankful.  Likely one of them would be out of job right now had they kept J.D.


1678
Talk Zone / Re: J.D. Martinez update
« on: April 21, 2014, 09:04:13 am »
He may well benefit from a change of circumstances. However, I see him more as AAAA fodder.

I would have preferred to see if the adjustment he was making was going to pay off.  He never really got regular at bats this spring. 

1679
Talk Zone / Re: Porter has to go
« on: April 21, 2014, 09:01:09 am »
Anyone starting to worry that this rebuilding plan may fail miserably? I think our farm might be overrated honestly...a lot of our top prospects have pretty big flaws (strike out a lot or unrefined secondaries).

No concern at all.  2015 has always been the target.  The big time talent all moved up a level.  High A, AA and AAA now are stacked where, Low A, High A and AA were stacked last year.  Next year Carter, Guzman and Presley won't have a chance of making the Astros roster. 

1680
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014
« on: April 21, 2014, 08:39:08 am »
Shirley putting himself back on the prospect map.  17 and a 1/3 innings so far.  22 Ks to 3 BBs.  Given up 10 singles and 2 doubles.  G/F=7.33

Most importantly he is healthy (knock, knock)


1681
Talk Zone / Re: J.D. Martinez update
« on: April 21, 2014, 08:25:03 am »
He was in the middle of changing his swing.  Certainly warranted a 40 man spot more than say Presley.

1682
Game Zone 2014 Archive / Re: Royals @ Astros April 16, 2014
« on: April 16, 2014, 04:42:57 pm »
He's set up for failure.

Oh he's not just responsible for batting second, but for everyone else not named Altuve in the lineup.  No pressure kid:

Quote
“Offensively, he’s been heating up the last week or so and we want to get a guy when he’s hot. Flip side of the equation is, we’ve got guys here that are really struggling offensively and we’re hoping he adds that spark to our offense and gets everybody going. We need to get [Jason] Castro, [Chris] Carter, [Matt] Dominguez – you name it — everybody needs to get going with the exception of maybe [Jose] Altuve. Even [Dexter] Fowler’s been off since he came back. What better way to get them going than to bring up the rookie that potentially could be a game-changer.”

1683
Talk Zone / Re: Springer Up
« on: April 16, 2014, 09:41:57 am »
Wates could probably push Presley out of a job as well.

1684
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread
« on: April 10, 2014, 02:50:55 pm »
Velocity down, command down, given a couple of extra days before start.  Perhaps he was getting extra work on the side or perhaps he's hurt. 


1686
Talk Zone / Re: Maybe George Springer needs a new agent
« on: March 26, 2014, 12:04:43 am »
he has figured out how to steal first base?

He walks a lot

1687
Talk Zone / Re: Maybe George Springer needs a new agent
« on: March 24, 2014, 03:21:12 pm »
Call me crazy, but I would like to see all 3 of Hoes, Fowler, and Grossman getting regular MLB ABs right now.  I wouldn't be surprised if all 3 of those guys had a more productive season than Springer would even if he were starting the season in Houston.

I'm excited to see what Grossman will do this year, and I expect Fowler to be okay.  But Hoes hasn't shown anything yet.  At least Springer has speed to fall back on if he struggles at the plate.


1688
Talk Zone / Re: Eternally hoping this spring
« on: March 06, 2014, 09:38:48 am »
I'm guessing Amador starts the season at OKC and comes up when one of the Wallace/Guzman/Carter trio struggles or gets hurt.

Wallace is on the fast track to being obsolete.  5 Ks in 10 Abs so far.  Obviously early but he might not be getting an extended look this spring of there are no improvements.

1689
Talk Zone / Re: Eternally hoping this spring
« on: March 06, 2014, 09:23:30 am »
Not bad so far.  2 for 7 with a 2B and a walk.  Just 1 K. 

Bad news though he has seen only 1 start through the first 6 games.  Not on the 40 man and not getting a lot of opportunity so far to get back on it.

1690
Game Zone 2014 Archive / Re: Astros @ Marlins March 3, 2014
« on: March 03, 2014, 01:56:22 pm »
Springer has run the count full before walking in all 3 at bats so far today

1691
Talk Zone / Eternally hoping this spring
« on: February 26, 2014, 07:21:24 am »
JD not going without a fight.

He's always found ways to get better throughout his career.  That would seemingly fill out the roster quite nicely if JD could LF/DH at around a 900 OPS.  (957 in winter ball using his new swing for the first time). 


1692
Talk Zone / Re: Bo upset about the lack of respect....
« on: February 20, 2014, 10:58:23 am »
“We must begin by asking it…”What is losing?”  Losing is a disease…as contagious as polio.  Losing is a disease…as contagious as syphilis. Losing is a disease…as contagious as bubonic plague... attacking one…but infecting all.  But curable.”

1693
Talk Zone / Re: FA Signings
« on: February 03, 2014, 01:48:46 pm »
Jerome Williams to sign.  Assuming this requires a bump from the 40-man.  Adds yet another right hander to the mix.

ETA.
Confirmed major league contract with expectations to be in the rotation. 

1694
Talk Zone / Re: 2014 ZiPS Projections
« on: January 31, 2014, 01:47:37 pm »
Just to note, I'm not advocating the use of minor league statistics to predict major league statistics.  I'm just arguing that the model Dan's computer seems to have is far to simplistic to provide any useful infomation.  I believe the Stros staff will be at least average this year with the potential to be real strong. 

1695
Talk Zone / Re: 2014 ZiPS Projections
« on: January 30, 2014, 02:48:17 pm »
Do you have access to the ZiPS code? In any case, that's not a crazy assumption if you are going to make an assumption.

From looking at Cosart's and Oberholtzer's stat history and their expected 2014 numbers it seems mostly as a result, probably that just plain result history and not trending are being caclulated.  If a player shows improvement after repeating the same level or even improvement as the move up through the minor league levels then the weighting for the earlier years should be greatly reduced as the player has shown signs of development.  I see no signs from the predicted 2014 results that they made any effort to do something complex like this.


1696
Talk Zone / Re: 2014 ZiPS Projections
« on: January 30, 2014, 12:20:11 pm »
(pitching will be putrid according to Dan's computer).

The predicted stats are bad — mostly as a result, probably, because all Dan's computer did was take historical minor league stats and assume the mlb stats would be worse then them by a particular percentage.  With AA stats being reduced more than AAA stats.


1697
Talk Zone / Re: 2014 ZiPS Projections
« on: January 30, 2014, 11:33:01 am »
The guy said:
Quote
mostly as a result, probably,


Which is mostly, likely, pretty much translated to the next statement will be my wild ass speculation.


ETA. 
It more makes sense that the 2014 payroll has more flexibility in it than the 2016 payroll.  Plus they may have no need for Feldman in 2016, so a frontloaded contract would make him a more valuable trade piece in say July 2015 or the 2015-16 offseason.


1700
Talk Zone / Re: Astros have an offer out on Choo?
« on: December 20, 2013, 05:00:54 pm »
DDJ will be in AA for '14.  If he gets on base reasonably well he'll be in AAA for '15.  If he gets on base reasonably well again....  But I was only offering the mostly likely internal outfield candidate outside of Springer to further your discussion.

Santana could become an everyday player but he's not the same kind of player as DDJ.  But I expect his ETA to be similar to DDJ.

Not to mention Grossman or Hoes could improve to the point of being average players.  And if you are talking 2016-17.  Anyone of Preston Tucker, Danry Vasquez or Teoscar Hernandez could enter themselves into the equation should they develop well. 

1701
Talk Zone / Re: Astros have an offer out on Choo?
« on: December 20, 2013, 10:31:30 am »
I doubt he is more than 20% of payroll by '16 or '17, but that's beside the point.  What are your thoughts of his production during those seasons and who of the internal options would be better?  If we're saying that a player would make the team worse, we have to establish who would be receiving that playing time and what type of production they would provide.  Otherwise, we're saying worse without a comparison. 

Really, you think the payroll will be on the plus side of 90 million in 2016?  In 2016-2017 I'm assuming his produciton will be somwhere in the low 700s as far as OPS.  And at that performance he could be replaced with a plethora of lower priced options or a better option at that money.

1702
Talk Zone / Re: Astros have an offer out on Choo?
« on: December 20, 2013, 10:10:35 am »
Am I clamoring for Ethier?  No, I would rather Choo and I won't be upset if a guy who isn't officially available doesn't end up here.  But, I don't think he would be a dead weight or make us a worse team, either.

I disagree.  You are talking about locking up > 20% of the payroll for a guy who in 2015-2017 (with a possibility of 2018) is likely to be average at best.  That's insane.  Will he make the team better in 2014, likely.  2015 maybe, maybe not.  2016 likely worse. 2017 most definitely worse and at minimum be a 2.5 million dollar loss in 2018. 




1703
Talk Zone / Re: Astros have an offer out on Choo?
« on: December 20, 2013, 09:01:51 am »
Did you read the article? I don't know how you came away with that interpretation.

When I say 'I'm in' I mean if the team is actively chasing Choo, why not go after Ethier instead.

I'd be shocked if the Astros offer was anything more than 15-16 million for 4 years and a 5th year vesting option. The article is assuming 18 million for 6


1704
Talk Zone / Re: Astros have an offer out on Choo?
« on: December 20, 2013, 08:38:35 am »
If you're trading for a more productive player or signing a more productive free agent, yes.

Well I disagree strongly.  Locking into a guy who isn't worth the money now, and certainly won't be when this team is expected to compete isn't smart.  He's likely only going to be more productive for the Astros this and maybe next year.  After that he just a full burden.

I think it makes much more sense to give the job to Grossman and see what he can do.  His numbers after his call up last year were better than Either's.  

1705
Talk Zone / Re: Astros have an offer out on Choo?
« on: December 20, 2013, 07:24:22 am »
I missed it.  Is there some sort of requirement to have a burden of a contract on your team to be good?

1706
Talk Zone / Re: FA Signings
« on: December 18, 2013, 02:15:09 pm »
I think I like the guy who showed up at the debut better, but that's fewer than 2 hits per inning.  At least he has more Ks than BBs.  

So he started as a starter?  Was he moved to the pen?  

Started first 3 games for Mets in 2012 then moved to pen.  2013 he got 2 relief appearance and a start with the Mets.  Then 4 starts for Colorado.  Spent a lot of time in the minors over the last 2 years as well.  Has always started in the minors

1707
Talk Zone / Re: FA Signings
« on: December 18, 2013, 02:00:21 pm »
9Ks, 2 hits and a BB over 7 shutout innings in his debut.

Since then:
19Ks, 70 hits and 12 walks over 40 and a 1/3

Traded mid-season last year for the player that led the NL in stolen bases.  Coincidentally to the team he faced in his debut.


1708
Talk Zone / Re: FA Signings
« on: December 18, 2013, 01:39:47 pm »
Collin McWho?

McSmackedAroundInHisFirstTwoYears

1709
Talk Zone / Re: FA Signings
« on: December 18, 2013, 01:31:26 pm »
40 man be full.  Collin McHugh claimed off waivers

1710
Talk Zone / Re: Matt Albers-Welcome Back!!!
« on: December 16, 2013, 03:38:12 pm »
Astros' bullpen is shaping up nicely.  

It certainly seems pretty right to me.  As in not left.

I like the signing.  Not as big of a strike out guy as Veras but over the last 2 years he's done a good job of keeping people off the base paths and has a nice ERA to go with it.

1711
Talk Zone / Re: FA Signings
« on: December 14, 2013, 10:18:01 am »
Imagine Brian Bogusevic. Imagine Brian Bogusevic after he suffers a moderate to severe stroke so that he can no longer play in the field or run the bases. Meet Brett Wallace.

You have fonder memories of Bogusevic than I do.

And I'm quickly coming around to believing the Bourn trade was not Wade's biggest blunder.  The Gose for Wallace flip will likely be that

1712
Talk Zone / Re: 2014 Batting Order
« on: December 13, 2013, 05:27:53 am »
Here is a good article which explains the nuances of super 2 and gaining an extra year of club control.

If the Astros call up Springer sometime after the 11 days but before the super 2 cutoff, then the team would have an extra year of Springer at the expense of a fourth year of arbitration.

okay then, so opening day is April 12th for Springer.  Wow what a stupid rule.   

1713
Talk Zone / Re: 2014 Batting Order
« on: December 12, 2013, 06:16:17 pm »
Keeping him in OKC for a little while buys them an extra year of club control. I doubt they'll sacrifice that.

Super 2 only refers to first arbitration year.  They'd have to hold him in OKC for most of the year to keep him for an extra year

1714
Talk Zone / Re: FA Signings
« on: December 12, 2013, 04:46:53 pm »
The Astros apparently offered on Corey Hart as well as Morse. The contracts both signed with their new teams were similar 1yr deals:


They both are trying to re-establish their value in the next year.  I suppose they might have been concerned about who was hitting behind them. 

1715
Talk Zone / Re: 2014 Batting Order
« on: December 12, 2013, 04:37:57 pm »
CF Fowler
2b Altuve
C Castro
3b Dominguez
DH Carter
LF Krauss
1b singleton/wallace
ss Villar
RF Hoes

Barring injury or a real bad spring, Springer will be in the opening day lineup.  There is nobody blocking him.  There is nothing left to prove in the minors.  I believe the only reason we didn't see him up in September was for 40-man flexibility. 

1717
Talk Zone / Re: Trade with Padres
« on: December 12, 2013, 12:18:51 pm »
Bass is likely all you are going to get for a 9 pick difference in the rule 5 draft.  Hey if the guy you want to pick doesn't require the first pick and you land an extra player trading down to a lower pick how is that not a good thing?  If Bass washes out nothing lost, if he puts it together then big win.

Guess who they wanted was taken because they went with cash instead

1718
Talk Zone / Re: Trade with Padres
« on: December 12, 2013, 07:20:25 am »
Because Anthony Bass is so awesome?

Bass is likely all you are going to get for a 9 pick difference in the rule 5 draft.  Hey if the guy you want to pick doesn't require the first pick and you land an extra player trading down to a lower pick how is that not a good thing?  If Bass washes out nothing lost, if he puts it together then big win.

1719
Talk Zone / Re: Trade with Padres
« on: December 12, 2013, 06:48:06 am »
I believe Bass has one more option year left, so if nothing else there is that advantage with him compared to anyone Houston could have picked up in the Rule 5 tomorrow: the ability to send him to the minors during 2014.

ETA:
Jim Callis tweeted that the Bass deal involved the Astros and Padres switching spots in the Rule 5--Astros will now pick 12th (more like 9th when taking into account teams which have full 40-man rosters).

It's conceivable the Astros have some lower level minor league player in mind for the draft that they think no one will be on early and cashed in the difference of the pick they needed.

1720
Talk Zone / Re: FA Signings
« on: December 11, 2013, 04:25:38 pm »
McTaggart tweets the Astros are pushing hard for Veras (via MLBTR)

After hearing Veras' quotes yesterday, one would think that's all you would need to do is open the door.


 

1721
Talk Zone / Re: FA Signings
« on: December 10, 2013, 04:19:40 pm »
McBraggart says the Astros are looking at Mike Morse, Crain, Gaudin.


Here is that tweet on MLBTR with info on the players. Plus Veras wanting to come back

Quote
"It feels like family there. It’s a young team and they’re hungry to win. I feel part of the team. I doesn’t mater to me if we won or lose. When you play as a team and everybody cares, that’s the best part for me."


They've also added some Chron tweet about mutual interest with Morse.  I imagine he would be looking for a short term contract with a team he would be gauranteed playing time with.  If he can produce numbers close to 2010-11 he'd likely be able to cash in huge next year.

1722
Talk Zone / Re: FA Signings
« on: December 10, 2013, 12:20:21 pm »
Wouldn't mind them taking a look at Hart.  Lots of pop.  Right handed to go along nicely with the left handed Wallace and Singleton.  Missed all of last year so likely to not be expecting a long term contract.  

Not to mention it hurts the Brewers which is always a plus

1723
Talk Zone / Re: FA Signings
« on: December 08, 2013, 10:30:31 am »
Rosenthal is tweeting that the Astros could get involved in bidding on Shin-Soo Choo. Personally, I don't see it happening.

I hope not not worth the money plus the pick

1724
Talk Zone / Re: FA Signings
« on: December 07, 2013, 04:04:30 pm »
Actually, Rosenthal tweeting that it is a two year $6,000,000 with a third year at club option for $3,500,000.

That would make more sense

1725
Talk Zone / Re: Fowl poles are staying
« on: December 06, 2013, 02:10:52 pm »
Out of the 134 players that had a minimum of 300 plate appearances last year only 10 were age 36 and over.

1727
Talk Zone / Re: Fowl poles are staying
« on: December 04, 2013, 01:16:17 pm »
The fact that he is 23 and inexpensive is why Colorado was willing to give up Fowler for him.  The fact that after 377 innings pitched he has yet to succeed at the MLB level is why Houston is willing to trade him for Fowler.




1728
Talk Zone / Re: Fowl poles are staying
« on: December 04, 2013, 11:36:51 am »
won’t play with pain and asks out a little more than he should…we’ll see if that continues!

I find it much more annoying when a player tries unsuccessfully to play through the pain. 

1729
Talk Zone / Re: Fowl poles are staying
« on: December 04, 2013, 10:53:32 am »
Losing Lyles isn't big for the Astros.  At that level they still have: Clemens, Cosart, Peacock, Wojo, in addition to possibly starting Harrell or Cisnero.  Too there's also Alex White on the mend.  Those are the RHP and just the guys in the majors or AAA.

Call me optomistic but I think Cosart doesn't belong in that list. 

ETA
In other words, if Cosart was in the deal instead of Lyles it's an awful trade for the Astros

1730
Talk Zone / Re: Fowl poles are staying
« on: December 04, 2013, 10:26:27 am »
I would have preferred the extra expense of a free agent rather than trading a young pitcher, but Luhnow isn't taking my calls still.

Who?  From what I could tell you were going to pay through the nose for anyone decent and have to lose the first pick of the second round (in a draft that is deeper than last two years)

1731
Talk Zone / Re: Fowl poles are staying
« on: December 04, 2013, 10:20:13 am »
This one is a real ho-humer. Fowler replaces Barnes in the fungible outfield corps. Lyles had great promise but turned into a Robertson - Redding hybrid.

I think it's far from a ho-humer.

Offensively, Fowler is much better than Barnes, even if he hits close to his away numbers.  And if he ends up hitting better than his away numbers he'll be a huge improvement.    Luhnow said he wanted to upgrade the offense in the outfield.  This does that.  Barnes had no job anyways if Fowler is on the team so this is basically Fowler for Lyles and a prospect.  

Fowler belongs in a mlb lineup.  Barnes does not.



1732
Talk Zone / Re: Fowl poles are staying
« on: December 03, 2013, 09:26:38 pm »
Plus opens up another 40-man spot

1733
Talk Zone / Re: Fangraphs Spends Crane's Money
« on: November 24, 2013, 08:57:58 am »
Agreed completely, with just this to add: he did pitch 46 quality innings at Albuquerque last year so he's healthier than the 15 innings number indicates. He could be the full-time setup guy next year.

unlikely.  He walked 20 in those 46 quality innings.  Allowed a baserunner in all but 1 of his 14 mlb appearances last year (that was just for one out). And will be 35 next year.  He's a flier.  With all the young guys competing for roster spots in the coming year, he's got his work cut out for him just to warrant adding him to the 40-man.     It's a decent move only because it's a minor league deal.  

1734
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Astros @ Indians September 22, 2013
« on: September 23, 2013, 08:51:28 am »
I think that we clinched it today.
yup clinched.  Tie goe sto the team that was worse last year

1735
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Best Combined Record in Minors
« on: September 22, 2013, 08:10:03 am »
We'll have to see if that minor league success translates to the major league level.

You are already seeing it.  It's just starting to make it.  Next year will have more and in 2015 get the popcorn ready.

1736
Talk Zone / Re: Dominguez' season
« on: September 15, 2013, 07:59:05 am »

1737
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Quad Cities - 2013
« on: September 15, 2013, 07:58:10 am »
I know Ruiz gets kind of just tacked on to these discussions...

But if the answer is
167/309/288
246/329/311
269/330/409
325/372/500

Then the question would have been: What are Ruiz' stats for April, May, June and last 10?

167/309/288 - April
246/329/311 - May
269/330/409 - June
279/347/477 - July
298/342/558 - August
364/475/758 - Spetember (32 of 40 PAs were in the playoffs)

1738
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Greeneville - 2013
« on: September 03, 2013, 09:54:29 pm »
Greenville ties the series up 1-1.  Rubber game tomorrow

Come from from behind twice.  Down 2-0 after 6 they tie it in the 7th and then down 1 they score 5 in the top of the 9th to win and advance to the finals

1739
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Greeneville - 2013
« on: September 02, 2013, 09:52:44 pm »
Greenville ties the series up 1-1.  Rubber game tomorrow

1740
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Quad Cities - 2013
« on: September 02, 2013, 02:27:34 pm »
Danry Vazquez hit 2 HR in yesterday's game. Nice photo of him in this story. Looks pretty skinny, which reinforces the sentiment that he could develop some nice power as he fills out.

Ruiz continues his fine 2nd half with doubles #32 and 33. After a worrisome 1st half hitting .211/.313/.311 with 9 2B, 3 HR, he's hit .300/.358/.525 with 24 2B and 9 HR in 62 games since the ASB. That is extremely encouraging.

Yes, especially since the kid missed his senior year at highschool

1741
Talk Zone / Re: Maybe Next Year
« on: August 31, 2013, 07:15:10 am »
For all the praise and drool this kid seems to inspire, really, what are the odds that, 10 years from now, he will stand out as the clear best player from the 2014 draft?

Personally, I am rooting for the Astros to win every game possible from now until the end of the year. If they finish with the worst record, then Rodon or whoever the #1 pick is will be a great consolation prize, but honestly, the #2 overall pick probably has virtually the same chance to wind up being the best player of the draft.

Personally I'm rooting for the Astros and Miami to win each night.  Rodon is a prize.  A lot can happen between now and next June but he's looking like he's advanced enough that he'd pitch mid-2015 or earlier for the Astros.  And I'm still believing the playoffs in 2015 are a possibility. 

1742
Talk Zone / Re: Good day for the organization
« on: August 24, 2013, 07:19:47 pm »
Happy Organizational Sweep Day.  GCL was postponed with an 8-8 tie after 10 but 8-0 from the other teams.



Make it 9-0.   GCL won the postponed game

1743
Talk Zone / Re: Good day for the organization
« on: August 24, 2013, 07:53:17 am »
Happy Organizational Sweep Day.  GCL was postponed with an 8-8 tie after 10 but 8-0 from the other teams.

An apparantly an exciting walk off inside the park homerun from DeShields.

https://twitter.com/JetHawks/status/371137417031340033
Quote
DeShields drives one to right, Grider catches ball, crashes into wall, drops ball, bobbles pick up… DESHIELDS ALL THE WAY AROUND TO WIN!


ETA.
It was scored a triple and error.
Quote
Lancaster Bottom of the 10th
Delino DeShields triples (12) on a fly ball to center fielder Casio Grider. Delino DeShields scores. Fielding error by center fielder Casio Grider.

1744
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Blue Jays @ Astros August 23, 2013
« on: August 23, 2013, 08:36:18 pm »
MLB Free TV game.  They look great

1745
Talk Zone / Re: Post-sweep "feel good about the future" post
« on: August 22, 2013, 10:33:51 am »
I don't think he is eligible for the Rule 5 draft until after 3 years, so you don't have to protect him on the 40-man until after that.

after 5 years if signed before 19 years old

1746
Talk Zone / Re: Last day to Vote Springer for MiLB POY
« on: August 22, 2013, 08:48:17 am »
If that poll means anything to anyone then something is wrong.  Buxton, Bogaerts, and Sano garnered a whole 2% of the vote.  Only way that happens is due to bots. 


1747
Talk Zone / Re: Stassi up
« on: August 20, 2013, 03:34:12 pm »
My guess:

1 spot open
Ely to the 60 day dl
Owens to the 60 day dl
Bedard gone
Humber gone
Harrell gone
Cruz gone
Laird gone
Ambriz gone

9 spots available

Add:
C Carlos Perez - 22
1B Jonathan Singleton - 22
OF Domingo Santana - 20

RHP Asher Wojciechowski- 24
RHP Jake Buchanan - 23
RHP Jason Stoffel - 24

Add somebody via rule 5 draft
Add 2 free agents (bullpen help)



1748
Talk Zone / Re: Stassi up
« on: August 20, 2013, 03:26:06 pm »
So really just need spots for:

C Carlos Perez - 22
1B Jonathan Singleton - 22
OF Domingo Santana - 20

RHP Asher Wojciechowski- 24
RHP Jake Buchanan - 23
RHP Jason Stoffel - 24


1749
Talk Zone / Re: Stassi up
« on: August 20, 2013, 03:21:40 pm »
Found this list no idea how accurate (not as bad as I thought):

C Carlos Perez - 22
C Rene Garcia - 23
C Jobduan Morales - 21
C Ryan McCurdy - 25
1B Jonathan Singleton - 22
1B/3B Bobby Borchering - 22
1B/DH Erik Castro - 25
1B/DH Telvin Nash - 22
2B Jose Martinez - 27
2B Enrique Hernandez - 22
IF Andy Simunic - 27
SS Jiovanni Mier - 22
3B Jonathan Meyer - 22
OF Domingo Santana - 20
OF Michael Burgess - 24
OF Austin Wates - 24

RHP Asher Wojciechowski- 24
RHP Tanner Bushue - 22
RHP Bobby Doran - 24
RHP Matt Heidenreich - 22
RHP Jake Buchanan - 23
RHP Andrew Robinson - 25
RHP Carlos Quevedo - 23
RHP Jason Stoffel - 24
RHP Ruben Alaniz - 22
RHP Kyle Weiland- 26
RHP Cameron Lamb - 23
LHP Wes Musick - 26
LHP Alex Sogard - 25
LHP Eric Berger - 27
LHP Colt Cain - 22
LHP Patrick Urckfitz - 24
LHP Luis Cruz - 22
LHP Tom Shirley - 24

1750
Talk Zone / Re: Stassi up
« on: August 20, 2013, 03:14:31 pm »

Has the organisation factored the Rule 5 draft into their grand plan?  It would suck to strip the big club bare of major league talent in favour of stocking the farm system for the future, then lose all the good stuff because you can't put them on the 40-man roster.

Likely will be some serious cleaning of the 40 man come November.

1 spot still open.  Ely and Owens could move to the 60 day DL.

Humber, Cruz, Bedard (if he isn't liquidated before the end of the month), Harrell, (Grossman or Barnes), Paredes, Crowe, Elmore, Marwin, Laird, Krauss, J.D. will all be in trouble.

1751
Talk Zone / Re: Stassi up
« on: August 20, 2013, 03:02:39 pm »
After checking the rule Stassi would have needed protection:

Quote
Selection eligibility
 
Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft who are not on their major league organization's 40-man roster and:
 
– were 18 or younger on the June 5 preceding their signing and this is the fifth Rule 5 draft upcoming; or
 
– were 19 or older on the June 5 preceding their signing and this is fourth Rule 5 draft upcoming.
 
These exemption periods (one year longer than those in effect previously) went into effect as part of a new Collective Bargaining Agreement in October 2006. The change took effect immediately, exempting many players from the 2006 Rule 5 draft even though they had been signed in some cases more than four years before the new agreement came into effect. Prior to the rule change, players were exempt from the first two or three Rule 5 drafts held after their signing (regardless of the year they were drafted), rather than from the first three or four Rule 5 drafts after their signing.

1752
Talk Zone / Re: Stassi up
« on: August 20, 2013, 02:45:42 pm »
Martinez kind of makes sense.  He had to be moved to the 40 man or lost via Rule 5.  Now you get an extended look at whether or not you want to protect him.  Stassi on the other hand I think had another year of protection from the rule 5.  Where as Perez did not and he has been hitting well in August.  Doesn't make much sense to me why he was skipped.

ETA
Actually Stassi might have needed protection on the 40 man, not sure

1753
Talk Zone / Re: Cash Grab?
« on: August 15, 2013, 09:39:13 am »
Bedard cleared waivers.  He's got to be worth something.  3.30 ERA over the last 10.  Could pitch out of the pen.  Certainly worth more than Blackley

1754
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« on: August 14, 2013, 04:35:23 pm »
Do you have to subscribe to get that, because I couldn't get it to work?

Worked fine for me.  all you need to know:
Quote
1. Carlos Rodon, LHP, NC State
 
The prize of the draft, the 6’-3” southpaw continued to demonstrate his silly array of abilities against the rest of the world after posting a 2.99 ERA, 1.05 WHIP with 184 K/45 BB over 132.1 innings for the Wolfpack this year. Pitching for The Collegiate National Team, he went 3-0 with 21 K/4 BB over 17 shutout innings, allowing just five hits. He has a five-pitch arsenal that includes a mid-90s heater, a power slider, a lethal cutter, an above-average curveball and a change-up with nice fade. He commands all of them well and is comfortable throwing any of them in any situation. There may not be much projection left but what more do you want?

Read more at http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2014-mlb-draft-top-50-prospects/36463#VSbCebVx4lJUF21X.99

1755
Talk Zone / Re: Cash Grab?
« on: August 14, 2013, 01:01:40 pm »
Wright may have been non-tendered and Blackley wasn't worth a 40-man spot.  They just cut Juri Perez and Zach Johnson.  So the minimum on a prospect needed just to make a roster spot on the minor league clubs has gone up.  Better to turn the players soon to be cut into cash (which can be added to a free agent's salary offer) versus just letting them go in the off season.

1756
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Oklahoma City - 2013
« on: August 13, 2013, 12:57:43 pm »
Luhnow discussed Springer Sunday and said that he would be in Houston next year. he added that it wasn't definitive what point in the year. I took that to indicate he would be not a Sept. callup.

Well, by not bringing him up September they would keep open a 40 man spot they could use to either protect or poach in the Rule 5 draft.

ETA
Does anybody have a list of players who need protection this year?  


ETA2
Notables that I remeber from last year that are still unprotected:
Stoffel
David Martinez
Carlos Perez

1757
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: stRangers @ Astros August 12, 2013
« on: August 12, 2013, 04:37:24 pm »
A quick scan through the roster and I have Jason Castro as the Stro with the oldest tenure with the big club.  At June 22, 2010.

1758
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: stRangers @ Astros August 12, 2013
« on: August 12, 2013, 04:35:27 pm »
I presumed he was up to preserve 1.1 in 2014...

I think the move completely crushes any and all hopes of both the Marlins and the White Sox. 

1759
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: stRangers @ Astros August 12, 2013
« on: August 12, 2013, 02:51:20 pm »
Just announced that Wright sent to Tampa Bay for cash.  Humber contract purchased

1760
Talk Zone / Re: The Future
« on: August 12, 2013, 12:51:58 pm »
I entertain myself with the end-of-season race. Each day I check to see if the Astros and Marlins have won or lost and how many games separate the two teams.

You can add entertainment value by checking the White Sox as well

1761
Talk Zone / Re: The Future
« on: August 12, 2013, 12:05:21 pm »
Actually, as of today QC is in.  They would be the 2nd half wild card team.  

Wow, didn't realize they take 8 of 16 teams for the playoffs.  Definitely takes some of the prestige away.

1762
Talk Zone / Re: The Future
« on: August 12, 2013, 11:46:30 am »
The only way to follow this team happily right now is to type milb.com.  Every non-intructional team except for the Star-studded QC team is currently in the playoffs (as of today).   And QC versus Cedar Rapids should be an interesting battle for the postseason there (1.5 games back with 21 games left; 3 against Cedar Rapids at home)

1764
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Oklahoma City - 2013
« on: August 09, 2013, 10:46:28 pm »
Springer is on like a 12 game homerless streak.  Get to 30-30 already, then call him up.

Just hit HR number 30

1765
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2013
« on: August 09, 2013, 10:14:53 pm »
wow.  That's not good.  Only 1 out in the second and Lancaster is down 19-1

ETA.
second inning over, so far an even 10 runs an inning for High Desert

1766
Talk Zone / Re: Cisnero down, De Leon up
« on: August 09, 2013, 06:13:53 am »
Well there you go.  Stoffel gives up 5 ER last night (and a HR)

1767
Talk Zone / Re: Cisnero down, De Leon up
« on: August 08, 2013, 05:05:18 pm »
Blackley was designated for assignment which means he's off the 40-man.

My bad, Ambriz was optioned.  Though I guess they could return Blackley to the 40 man within 10 days (unlikely)

1768
Talk Zone / Re: Cisnero down, De Leon up
« on: August 08, 2013, 03:23:07 pm »
Well, bringing up Chapman is no snub to Stoffel; clearly they wanted another LH to replace Blackley.

It will depend on what they do 40 man wise with Blackley.  If they stick him back on the 40 man as they did with Ambriz then Chapman's inclusion on the 40-man may hurt Stoffel's chances of making it on it in time before this year's Rule 5 draft.

1769
Talk Zone / Re: Cisnero down, De Leon up
« on: August 08, 2013, 02:52:24 pm »
His BB/K ratio isn't up to par with those promoted ahead of him.  All I can figure.

The 3 game stretch in late July is the only reason that number isn't north of 2 (which it has been for his minor league career).

The snubbing started before that anyways.  I guess they must think his stuff just won't translate to the majors. 

He's a groundball pitcher.  Given up 12 HRs in 232 minor league innings. 

1770
Talk Zone / Re: Cisnero down, De Leon up
« on: August 08, 2013, 01:51:39 pm »
Blackley has been designated. Chapman coming up.

Ha, poor Stoffel

1771
Talk Zone / Re: Cisnero down, De Leon up
« on: August 08, 2013, 09:34:58 am »
Didn't see that coming. Good for De Leon though. Not easy to convert from a SS to a pitcher, and be in the majors 3 years later.
Link



More Stoffel snubbing

1772
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Red Sox @ Astros August 7, 2013
« on: August 07, 2013, 11:12:48 pm »
White Sox 2-run triple in the bottom of the 12th to win it 6-5 over the Yankees.   Astros now up by 6 and a 1/2

1773
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Oklahoma City - 2013
« on: August 06, 2013, 11:15:31 am »
I'm hopeful that Luhnow can play some sort of Jedi mind trick on the Rangers and convince them that Carter is the bat they need to take over for Cruz. That kills two birds with one stone: it gets Carter off of the Astros, and it gets Carter *on* the Rangers. That's a win-win if you hate the Rangers.

Chicks dig the long ball and Carter is under team control for many years and cheap.  No way he makes it through wavers

1774
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: August 01, 2013, 03:01:10 pm »
In the scenario you list, you see Rodon asking for as much as $8.8M, 5% over slot.  In that scenario, doesn't having the extra supplemental pick play into that?  It gives you more available cap to sign guys for a little under slot.  So, instead of having to take $400K off of rounds 2-10, you get an extra $1.6+-$1.8M from that slot to work with. 

The 5% over slot I was referring to was just from the 4.99999% you are allowed to go over without taking the draft pick hit.  Not from any other pick

1775
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: August 01, 2013, 01:29:23 pm »
Yes, I am aware it was the 8th slot, and what Appel might have asked from the Astros in 2012 for 1-1 is not comparable to what Rodon, a player with tons more hype, might ask for in 2014 for 1-1.  My point, probably inartfully made, is simple: even under the new CBA, a college junior can hold out for over slot, like Appel did, and the Astros might need to scavenge from other picks if that scenario arises.    

1-1 next year given a similar increase in bonuses to this year would be 8.4 million.  That would be 25% more than the highest bonus paid out so far under the new CBA.  If he scares off the team holding 1-1 with a high demand then the next team has to come up with 1.2 milion just to match 8.4 million.  Most I could sanely seeing Rodon asking for is 8.4 million plus 5% ( 8.8 ).  The lesson Appel taught everyone is don't scare off 1-1.  


1776
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: August 01, 2013, 12:31:56 pm »
You mean how Appel held out for more than the 8th overall slot money after the Pirates drafted him? I don't recall reading anything about wanting more than 1/1 slot from the Astros - the way I understand it, they offered him $6m (well under slot) and he didn't jump on it, so they moved on.

Yeah, full slot 1-1 hasn't even happened yet.  I think Rodon might be the first.  Asking for more is just a huge risk with little reward.  If you get injured your looking at throwing away a minimum of 4-5 million (on the assumption you can be fixed).   If you do stay healthy you are going to have to land 1-1 the next year and then hope that team will give you more than 1-1 money with you having nearly almost no leverage.  It's just not going to happen short of them cloning Babe Ruth from some DNA.




1777
Talk Zone / Re: The Future
« on: August 01, 2013, 11:10:39 am »
Is Carter your Wallace?

Carter just needs to hit at home like he does on the road.  165/276/329 versus 272/364/549

1778
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: August 01, 2013, 11:02:48 am »
Have you forgotten Appel already?

Yeah he accepted an underslot bonus.  I just don't see a team ever giving anyone more than full slot for 1-1.  Unless it's part of the 5% you are allowed to go over. 

1779
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: August 01, 2013, 10:54:47 am »
I was thinking the same.  If Rodon is the second coming as people claim, and just a junior, they may well need to go over slot.  In a way, that kind of limits the value of the pick. 

Likely just get full slot (~8 million).  Anything more than that is highly unlikely with the current CBA.  To pick up a guy who falls due to signability, you'd have to combine the 2nd and 3rd pick though.  With some college senior getting a thanks for playing bonus.


1780
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Quad Cities - 2013
« on: July 31, 2013, 10:12:45 pm »
Danry Vasquez goes 2-4 in his first action with QC.
um you called that too early.

He went 3 for 5 with a game tying 2 run HR in the bottom of the 9th:

Quad Cities Bottom of the 9th

Austin Elkins hit by pitch.
Teoscar Hernandez strikes out swinging.
Danry Vasquez homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Austin Elkins scores.
Carlos Correa doubles (23) on a fly ball to center fielder Charlie Tilson.
Pitching Change: Joseph Scanio replaces Joe Donofrio.
Dan Gulbransen strikes out swinging.
Bobby Borchering singles on a fly ball to center fielder Charlie Tilson. Carlos Correa scores.

1781
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 05:03:17 pm »
Maybe his dad is also named Jerome, so he was Little Jerome?



Quote

Steve Sparks ‏@SteveSparks37  12m 
.@astros LJ Hoes stands for "Little Jerome." His dad's the big one.


So is his dad BJ Hoes?

1782
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 04:38:15 pm »
Why would Smith be on the Twins list?  Wouldn't he be on the Royals list?

Doh, my bad.  Nothing to see here

1783
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 03:33:51 pm »
The Norris deal included the Orioles competitive balance lottery pick for the 2014 draft.

Ah so the 38th is the 2nd round pick.  Isn't there possible qualifying offer picks before round 2?

1784
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 03:17:09 pm »
Stassi discovered his bat.  He stays.

Mayo won't re-weight, he'll fall

1785
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 03:16:31 pm »
Unless the Astros suddenly go on a hot streak, looks like they'll have 3 of the top 40 picks (1, 33, 38) in the (deep) 2014 draft.


Why the 33rd?

1786
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 03:14:40 pm »
Peacock, Stassi and possibly Thurman just fell off the top 20 list for the Stros. 

1787
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 03:11:59 pm »
So does Hoes take Maxi's spot?

1788
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 03:10:45 pm »
So, the O's gave up their #5, #7 and a draft pick for Norris? 

Gausman might not count as a prospect anymore so #4 and #6 plus the pick

1789
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 02:58:35 pm »
McTaggart (via Twitter)

Brian McTaggart ‏@brianmctaggart
Bedard has not been traded. Said his shoulder was sore, just needs a couple of days.


bad timing

1790
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 02:57:12 pm »
uh oh

Quote
2:49pm: An issue with Hader's medicals could lead to a switch in the second prospect headed to Houston, tweets Danny Knobler of CBS Sports.

1791
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 02:55:05 pm »
Hader  The kid is 19.  Young.


Wow:
Height: 6' 3", Weight: 160 lb.



1792
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 02:51:38 pm »
Quote
Scouting Grades* (present/future): Fastball: 6/6 | Curveball: 4/5 | Changeup: 4/5 | Control: 4/5 | Overall: 4/5
 The Orioles clearly like finding talent in their own backyard and Hader has the chance to be the best success story among the locals. The tall, skinny lefty saw his velocity take a huge leap forward during his summer debut in the organization. He was throwing his fastball in the 89-93 mph range and there could be room for more as he continues to get stronger. His curveball and changeup both have the chance to be at least Major League average and it looks like he'll have pretty good control of all three pitches. He's very athletic, which helps him repeat his delivery, fields his position and holds runners well. Because of his body type and potential for his stuff, he draws comparisons to White Sox lefty Chris Sale, something the Orioles wouldn't mind seeing at all.

 

1793
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 02:50:34 pm »
That's more like it.  Nice left handed prospect (Hader).  #5 on the Orioles list

1794
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 02:46:21 pm »
Making more sense...

Quote
2:44pm: The two sides are still debating over a third piece in the deal, Rosenthal tweets. The tentative structure, for now, is Hoes, a Competitive Balance draft pick and a potential third piece. The Orioles won the second pick of Comp Round A in this year's Competitive Balance lottery.

Basically just landed a late first round pick in a deep draft

1795
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 02:44:32 pm »
Baseball Reference page on Hoes lists his positions as "Leftfielder, Pinch Hitter and Pinch Runner"...

Waiting on the other piece...

1796
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 02:39:44 pm »
Wow, all this hype for a no-pop corner outfielder?

1797
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 02:13:05 pm »
I've had MLB Network on all day.  They've spent literally at least 40% of their time on him.  Of course, Harold Reynolds is the only one talking him up, so that's an issue.

Yeah, MLBTR, twitter, etc. 

1798
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 02:06:50 pm »
Ha, Maxwell from left field

1799
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 02:01:42 pm »
Kudos to Luhnow for creating this big of a buzz. 

1800
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 01:26:16 pm »
Now that the DBacks have unloaded Kennedy you would have to think they are getting somebody.

1801
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 01:12:47 pm »
Thought this one was funny:

Quote
Gruber's Mullet‏@GrubersMullet5m
This tweet canceled itself out. "@DannyKnoblerCBS: Hearing that a Bud Norris deal is becoming more likely, but still not at all certain."

1802
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 01:02:14 pm »
First interesting Bedard tweet
Quote
Lee White‏@Lee_White732m
.@ChronAstros Any news on Erik Bedard? Hearing Brett Oberholtzer will start in his place.

1803
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 12:32:23 pm »
Traded or not, this has been entertaining

1804
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 12:08:36 pm »
@DannyKnoblerCBS
Correcting earlier tweet: Braves are not in on Bud Norris. Sorry, misunderstood a text message.

Again odd since Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports was credited with the Braves rumor according to MLBTR

1805
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 12:04:57 pm »
Luhnow shouldn't trade Norris unless he is overwhelmed. I am glad to see him holding out.

As far as I can tell, stances have not changed.  Luhnow will only trade if overwhelmed and teams wanting him are not willing to do that.  Unless somebody cracks in the next 3 hours.  Bud is pitching tonight for the Astros.

1806
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 11:43:42 am »
From ESPN chat:
jerrycrasnick
Truby, Bud Norris has been out there for a while now, obviously. I think the teams that have had interest in him -- like the Giants and Indians -- view him as more of a No. 4 type, innings eating starter. So far, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow is asking for the kind of talent you'd expect when you're dealing a staff ace. Unless he drops the price significantly today, it's going to be difficult for him to move Norris. He's certainly waiting to the last minute.

That's silly.  Name one true ace you can land for just 2 top prospects?  That is under team control for 2 more years and is fairly cheap

1807
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 10:21:57 am »
Not understanding relevance of the offense.  Bedard is pitch-count limited, by his own admission.

The assumption is with a lead he could attack hitters more.  Not to mention a better defense behind him will record more outs earlier.  

1808
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 10:03:37 am »
I could see Norris to the DBacks in a 3 way.  Kennedy going to another team.  Norris going to the DBacks.  And the Stros getting a good prospect from each.

Bedard would make good sense with the Orioles.  With that offense he could pitch deeper into games.

1809
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 10:01:27 am »
Do they have a team option for next year with Bedard?

Not according to BaseballReference.  Veras has the team option


1810
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 31, 2013, 09:05:30 am »
Still think Bedard is gone today.  ERA in the 3s for the past 3 months.  Not going to pitch deep in games, but could be a useful addition to a team like the Diamondbacks.

1811
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 30, 2013, 09:59:16 pm »
From what I gather it's mostly the Orioles at this point (in negotiations).

ETA Who mightbe feeling a little extra pressure with Boston landing Peavy

1812
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 30, 2013, 12:01:46 pm »
Rodon, some left handed batting outfielder and who the hell cares who else.

The Norris trade surprises me. I'd bought into the speculation that the Astros were gauging his value to move in the offseason and that the team was demanding far more than anyone wanted to pay. I guess they were made a surprising offer.

There was rumors that the Orioles were contemplating Bundy as a trade chip.  Maybe they get a prospect in return to soften the blow.  (Cause I doubt anything on the MLB roster could get him even with TJ surgery)

1813
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 30, 2013, 11:59:39 am »
I got to think it's the Orioles.  I'm sure they'd prefer to not have him start tonight.

1814
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 30, 2013, 11:58:10 am »
Norris and Veras for Rodon?

Pretty sure Rodon was locked up before either trade.  But this ices it

1815
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 30, 2013, 11:51:40 am »
Norris is scratched from the start tonight.  Have to think it's a trade.  Source is a friend of mine who has some connections (agent).  No link.

and there goes my afternoon

1816
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Oklahoma City - 2013
« on: July 30, 2013, 11:43:49 am »
Isn't it time for Springer to move up? There is nothing left for him to do at AAA.

Need one more homerun for 30-30

1817
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2013
« on: July 30, 2013, 11:42:28 am »
I won't post that scouting report as it is pay-walled, but the gist is:

Advanced approach, may be limiting his contact due to instructions to take so many pitches;
Freakish speed, but thrown out WAY too often;
Glove is BAD, needs to change positions;
Sulking to dugout/looks lethargic/needs a kick in the ass;
Fringe first-division player, high variability.

Is this just a rehash.  Sounds awfully familiar: http://www.spikesnstars.com/forums/index.php?topic=115413.msg474115#msg474115

1818
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2013
« on: July 30, 2013, 09:55:55 am »
I was reading the BP scouting report on DDS this morning and saw this nugget...
Did anyone see this happen?

This is when it happened:

http://www.spikesnstars.com/forums/index.php?topic=115413.msg475278#msg475278

1819
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 29, 2013, 04:56:19 pm »
I wouldn't be able to answer your question without knowing more about both players, but I suspect you and I are in more agreement than you think.  I don't want my GM just looking at stats.  I want him looking at command, velocity, makeup, and all sorts of shit.  What I don't want him doing when offered the #75 or #150 prospect in a trade is assuming that the former is better than the latter.

Not saying that we fully disagree, but if the list is put together ocrrectly is takes into account "command, velocity, makeup, and all sorts of shit"

A prospect list is not the be all end all.  But it weighs a whole lot more heavier than stats from one year.  Which was the only point I was making in the original post. 

1820
Talk Zone / Re: Veras trade aftermath
« on: July 29, 2013, 04:49:41 pm »
Poor Stoffel.  First he is left off the 40-man.  Not picked up in the Rule 5 draft.  Not promoted to AAA to start the season (even though he dominated AA the year before).  Now passed over for a guy that never saw AAA.  Wondering if he's dinged up a bit, only playing in one game since July 22nd and having trouble throwing strikes in that game.  


1821
Talk Zone / Re: Veras trade aftermath
« on: July 29, 2013, 04:16:50 pm »
Astros (via Twitter):

Houston Astros ‏@astros
#Astros to officially recall RHP Chia-Jen Lo and select the contract of RHP Josh Zeid tomorrow. RHP Hector Ambriz optioned to OKC today.


Does not one have to call once to be able to recall?

1822
Talk Zone / Re: Veras trade aftermath
« on: July 29, 2013, 03:40:16 pm »
How bout moving Bud to closer and bringing up (My Name is) Asher Woj to take his place in the rotation?

Likely already have a spot available.  I don't think they trade Norris, but I think Bedard will be.

1823
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 29, 2013, 03:26:12 pm »
I agree wholeheartedly with the first point.  For SP prospects, I've always thought K/9 was the best minor league barometer, with opponents' BA probably next.

I'm not wild about getting caught up in prospect ratings.  I think the D-Backs had two or three pitchers rated ahead of Webb when he was called up.  Of course, that could be an overreaction on my part to how fucking pissed I get when college football and basketball fans get bent out of shape because their favorite team "is playing a 3-star recruit ahead of a 4-star recruit! WTF!".



Prospect Ratings take into account other things than statistics.  Often containing projection.  They are also less ractionary.  For example Olt is still on lists despite struggling this year with eye issues.    Or Bundy having Tommy John surgery.  Or a guy having a hot year.

Who would you rather have, a top 20 rated prospect or a guy in AAA with a 1.00 ERA who is not even considered a top 200 prospect?

1824
Talk Zone / Re: Trader Jeff
« on: July 29, 2013, 12:21:16 pm »
Did he say 16 or does he have an updated list posted?
Updated list.  I believe he has the players preweighted so they just slot in automatically.

1825
Talk Zone / Re: Trader Jeff
« on: July 29, 2013, 12:20:36 pm »
Mayo has him at 16. Fwiw, think that says a lot about the level of talent HOU has on the farm.

Yeah, just saw that.  Wasn't too long ago we were seeing the opposite.  

1826
Talk Zone / Re: Trader Jeff
« on: July 29, 2013, 12:15:02 pm »
Oddly, he sounds more like a high-average gap hitter than a HR hitter

177 lbs on a 6'3'' frame.  Definitely room for more mass. 

1827
Talk Zone / Re: Trader Jeff
« on: July 29, 2013, 09:28:12 am »
I'm inclined to think 7-10 not knowing much about him.

Can't be 7 or 8

1828
Talk Zone / Re: Trader Jeff
« on: July 29, 2013, 09:23:13 am »
He was listed as the #4 prospect in the Tigers org, any guesses as where he slots amongst Astros prospects? 9-12ish?

He's not a top 100 prospects so it has to be 9 or later.  I'd guess 10.  Pushing Santana out of the top 10.


1829
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 26, 2013, 03:15:10 pm »
Interesting AA line for Wainwright from that article:

If you were just looking at numbers, those certainly wouldn't portend what he has become.


Yeah, minor league win-loss record and ERA are extremely meaningless.

He was the #18 prospect overall in 2003. That should have been in there.

 

1830
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 25, 2013, 11:09:02 am »
The order of the list is the same, the blurb is updated with how they've done so far this season.

"J.R. Graham, RHP, Grade B: Posted 4.04 ERA with 28/10 K/BB in 36 innings for Double-A Mississippi before going down with a shoulder injury. Wait and see at this point."

my bad, didn't see that part

1831
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 25, 2013, 10:00:15 am »
It's a re-evaluation of his preseason.  I'd still say Wood would be a candidate.

Where is the re-evaluation?  It was originally published in November 2012 and revised on April 4th.  If it was a re-evaluation you'd think he'd mention Graham's injury

1832
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 25, 2013, 09:50:22 am »
Sickels just posted his mid-season review of the Braves' top 20.  I think you'd be looking at something like Wood and La Stella.

That was his preseason look.  Wood and Teheran are already with the MLB club and Graham broke. 

1833
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: July 25, 2013, 09:42:01 am »
I would greatly appreciate the input from the far more astute fans around here what the Braves have to offer for Bud.  Seems like they might not have the luxury of fucking around in light of last night's injury...

A quick look at their top prospects shows they don't have much.  Their top prospect (likely ex-top prospect) and only top 100 guy has missed over 2 months dealing with a shoulder strain.  Wouldn't touch him.  Most interesting pitching prospect is Lucas Sims.  Last years #1 pick for the Braves.  19 and doing well at low-A.

Here's their top 20, accoring to a fansite:
http://atlantabullpen.com/2013/06/24/braves-mid-season-top-20-prospects/

1834
What does this mean?

It means he threw a lot of pitchers.  Overthrowing on at least a couple.  Likely to have less command after that so late in a game

1835
Cosart went to 115 yesterday.

Bud had to reach real deep in the 6th.  pitch count is irrelevant

1836
Bud on to try the 7th

1837
Pop up, pop up and a K.  Gets out of trouble but burned likely all the gas in the tank.

1838
After a fairly quick 4th and 5th.  4 pitch walk and a HBP to start the 6th.  Need a pitcher's best friend here

1839
Altuve HR, ties it up at 1

1840
Yup

Good news, Bud has 6 Ks though 3.  But on 61 pitches.  He needs to have a quick inning or 2

1841
Talk Zone / Re: In former Astros news...
« on: July 24, 2013, 12:58:43 pm »
Melancon back in the closer role for Pittsburgh.  Having a spectacular season so far.  Only allowed 38 runners in 47 and a third innings.  With 47 Ks.

Very nice

1842
Bud better pitch well if he wants to be a contender.

Yup

1843
Talk Zone / Re: Braun suspended for rest of 2013
« on: July 22, 2013, 04:52:38 pm »
"I realize now that I have made some mistakes."

Now? Fuck you, you cheating piece of shit.

In other words. "I made the mistake of getting caught without being able to get out of it with some technicality"

1844
Talk Zone / Re: wheels turning
« on: July 22, 2013, 09:47:14 am »
Trading for Freiman?  Didn't they just let him go. 

They weren't willing to leave him on the 25-man.  Supposedly they were going to trade something to the Padres and send him down to AAA (on the 40 man).  But the A's snagged him.

1845
Talk Zone / Re: wheels turning
« on: July 22, 2013, 08:58:47 am »
I don't think it out of the realm of possibility that the odd man out could be Fields.

Extremely doubtful.  They were planning on trading for Freiman and were a bit blindsided when the A's took him.  I don't see them just giving up Fields after 17 innings.

1846
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Early 2014 draft thread
« on: July 17, 2013, 01:37:24 pm »
Rodon had a few games he struggled in this last season, but still dominated
Led the NCAA in Ks by a lot (was tied for 3rd in his freshman year)

Outstanding in the CWS:
Dominated the first game
Second game on 3 days rest

Oh and he's a lefty. 

ETA.  IMO, if he improves at all next year he's 1-1 and it's not close

1847
Talk Zone / Re: Park attendance
« on: July 12, 2013, 09:31:12 am »
but we bought ours ahead of time off of Stubhub for a few bucks below face value in the club section on the 1st base side. 

This was going to be my suggestion.  Wife got tickets for PNC a few years back.  Pretty kick ass seats for just under face value. 

1848
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Quad Cities - 2013
« on: July 11, 2013, 08:10:49 am »
  Is he rehabbing or something?

yes

1849
Talk Zone / Re: Harrell to the pen
« on: July 11, 2013, 03:17:51 am »
So what would the Astros all-time all-headcase team look like?  Gonna need some help with the 60's-70's guys:

1B:
2B:
SS:
3B: Nevin
OF: Cesar Cedeno, Bell, C4
C: Meluskey

SP: Lima (2000 version), Joaquin Andujar, Redding, Juden?, ???
RP:
Closer:  Wagner in a landslide

Chuckie doesn't do your list

1850
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2013
« on: July 11, 2013, 03:09:07 am »
The Delino bonus run inning

Lancaster Bottom of the 7th

Brandon Meredith homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.
Tyler Heineman homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.
Pitching Change: Jairo Diaz replaces Alex Keudell.
Carlos Perdomo walks.
Joe Sclafani homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Carlos Perdomo scores.
Delino DeShields singles on a bunt ground ball to third baseman Brian Hernandez.
Nolan Fontana flies out to center fielder Andy Workman.
With Andrew Aplin batting, Delino DeShields steals (29) 2nd base.
Andrew Aplin strikes out swinging. Delino DeShields steals (30) 3rd base.
With MP Cokinos batting, wild pitch by Jairo Diaz, Delino DeShields scores.
MP Cokinos grounds out, third baseman Brian Hernandez to first baseman Michael Snyder

1851
Talk Zone / Re: i will become POPE today
« on: July 10, 2013, 04:29:42 pm »
Maybe there should be a special title for Freida - La Popessa.

I was thinking more along the lines of "Poep"

1852
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Astros @ Turdinals July 9, 2013
« on: July 10, 2013, 01:21:56 pm »
God, please let Ronny Cedeno's toe injury be serious enough that he has to go on the DL.

Apparantly it won't matter soon:


Quote
OKC shortstop Jonathan Villar could join the Astros after the July 31 trade deadline and before September call-ups begin.

“I think we’re all curious to see how he fits into next year’s team,” Luhnow said. “And there’s really only one way to find out, and that’s to bring him up and let him play.”


1853
Talk Zone / Re: i will become POPE today
« on: July 10, 2013, 09:43:35 am »
as so apprapo thank you noe

went with the latter

1854
Talk Zone / Re: Chris Carter
« on: July 10, 2013, 09:23:57 am »
Not in St Louis.

Can still get 1 PH ab a game.

1855
Talk Zone / Re: George Springer
« on: July 10, 2013, 09:23:28 am »
ok why has no one mentioned hunter pence? i guess the fanbase and ownership have both changed since then

I was about to, they both play hard but their approach at the plate, even though both have aggresive swings, are different.  Springer, by his own words, goes up there with a plan.  It certainly didn't seem like Pence!!! had a plan, just be hacking.  Plus Springer is supposedly a good center fielder. Pence!!! was a horrible right fielder.  

ETA
Oh and Springer is much faster

1856
Talk Zone / Re: Chris Carter
« on: July 10, 2013, 09:15:28 am »
Because he's a liability?

He's a DH, what liability?

1857
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Astros @ Turdinals July 9, 2013
« on: July 10, 2013, 09:11:47 am »
This isn't helping your trade value Bud.

With Philly starting to get back into it and Cubs thinking about keeping Garza, all of a sudden Bud would be worth a ton. Unfortunately a start like last night doesn't help.

1858
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2013
« on: July 10, 2013, 08:54:21 am »
Another Delino inning:

Lancaster Top of the 9th
Joe Sclafani flies out to left fielder Nathan Melendres.
Delino DeShields walks.
With Nolan Fontana batting, throwing error by Grady Wood on the pickoff attempt, Delino DeShields to 2nd.
With Nolan Fontana batting, Delino DeShields steals (27) 3rd base.
Grady Wood intentionally walks Nolan Fontana.
Pitching Change: Jeremy Dobbs replaces Grady Wood.
Andrew Aplin grounds out, pitcher Jeremy Dobbs to first baseman Daniel Paolini. Nolan Fontana to 2nd.
With MP Cokinos batting, Delino DeShields steals (28) home.
MP Cokinos hit by pitch.
Chris Epps grounds out to first baseman Daniel Paolini.

Delino DeShields (@LinoDeShields)  just stole home as the Mavs were trying to intentionally walk M.P. Cokinos. 

(Then they hit MP later in the AB)

1859
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Oklahoma City - 2013
« on: July 10, 2013, 08:43:22 am »
MiLB Article with second homerun replay

Guessing that triple should have been scored a double taking third on the throw home.

1860
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Oklahoma City - 2013
« on: July 09, 2013, 08:49:42 pm »
Looking forward to hearing the report on him from the AA group meeting at the Dell Diamond tonight!

Unfortunately the Express are up by a field goal

1861
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: July 09, 2013, 08:47:22 pm »
leaked Luhnow draft board photo?

You mean the one Luhnow tweeted out?

1862
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Astros @ Turdinals July 9, 2013
« on: July 09, 2013, 07:55:54 pm »
Meanwhile down on the farm Springer just hit #2 on the day. 

1863
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: BA 2013 Hot Sheet
« on: July 09, 2013, 10:35:02 am »
Last weeks sheet had 4 mentions 3 good, 1 not so good:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-july-5/

Quote
No. 5 Nolan Fontana, ss, Astros
Team: high Class A Lancaster (California)
Age: 22
Why He’s Here: .379/.500/.517 (11-for-29), 4 2B, 10 RBIs, 6 R, 7 BB, 6 SO

The Scoop: Fontana celebrated Independence Day by reaching base five times, going 2-for-3 with a double and three walks against Inland Empire. He’s going to make pitchers come in the zone, as that patience is a hallmark of his game. He drew 65 walks in 49 games last season in his pro debut and already has 54 in 58 games with Lancaster, ranking him third in the Cal League in both walks and on-base percentage (.432).


Quote
7. Vince Velasquez, rhp, Astros
Team: low Class A Quad Cities (Midwest)
Age: 21
Why He’s Here: 0-0, 0.90, 2 G, 1 GS, 10 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 14 SO, 1 SV

The Scoop: It may have taken few years longer than the Astros expected for Velasquez to make his full-season debut, but he’s been effective when healthy. After rebounding from Tommy John surgery that erased his 2011 season, he now has more strikeouts (93) than innings (81) while maintaining a 3.56 ERA, showing a low-90s fastball that can touch 96 with a quality changeup to keep hitters off balance.


Quote
No. 10 Rio Ruiz, 3b, Astros
Team: low Class A Quad Cities (Midwest)
Age: 19
Why He’s Here: .348/.483/.609 (8-for-26) 6 R, 3 2B, 1 HR, 6 BB, 3 SO

The Scoop: Ruiz has had much more trouble with the Midwest League than his teammates Carlos Correa and Lance McCullers Jr. His OPS has not topped .700 since the third day of the season and he has shown less power than expected. He hasn’t turned a corner yet, but this was an encouraging week. Ruiz has three multi-hit games this week, including only the second three-hit game he’s had this year. He also managed to draw four walks on July 1 after drawing just nine in the entire month of July.



Quote
NOT SO HOT

Lance McCullers Jr., rhp, Astros: It’s been a bad year but a good week for Quad Cities’ Rio Ruiz. It’s been a good year but a bad week for his teammate McCullers. McCullers had his worst start of the season this week, giving up six runs, nine hits and three walks in 3 2/3 innings.

1864
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2013
« on: July 08, 2013, 09:42:44 pm »
For today, at least, he is the real deal.

Corpus Christi Hooks ‏@cchooks
Preston Tucker gave himself a birthday present...his first Double-A home run. #cchooks lead 1-0 in the 2nd


Continues to settle in at Corpus with a 2 homerun game today. 

1865
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Oklahoma City - 2013
« on: July 08, 2013, 09:38:37 pm »
Wojciechowski with a complete game 1 hitter against the Express tonight.  1 walk and 5 Ks

1866
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2013
« on: July 03, 2013, 09:28:05 pm »
DeShields may be heating up. Over the last 4 games, 7 hits, 6 BB, 7 R, 4 RBI, 5 SB, 0 CS.

The Delino inning:
              
Lancaster Bottom of the 1st
Delino DeShields singles on a ground ball to shortstop Juan Perez.
With Nolan Fontana batting, Delino DeShields steals (24) 2nd base.
Nolan Fontana strikes out swinging.
With Andrew Aplin batting, Delino DeShields steals (25) 3rd base.
Andrew Aplin grounds out to first baseman Steve Selsky. Delino DeShields scores.

1867
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Quad Cities - 2013
« on: July 02, 2013, 03:53:03 pm »
I didn't see that there.  Is there a link?

Searched twitter for Correa and broken and there was plenty of posts.  No confirmations though.  And none from a source that should know

1868
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Rays @ Astros July 1, 2013
« on: July 01, 2013, 08:33:55 pm »
This is happening way too often

Quad Cities Bottom of the 3rd
Teoscar Hernandez pops out to catcher Marcus Littlewood.
Jordan Scott singles on a line drive to left fielder Dario Pizzano.
Carlos Correa hit by pitch. Jordan Scott to 2nd.
Jesse Wierzbicki doubles (16) on a line drive to center fielder Jabari Henry. Jordan Scott scores. Carlos Correa to 3rd.
Rio Ruiz pops out to shortstop Ketel Marte.
Roberto Pena grounds out, third baseman Jordy Lara to first baseman Taylor Ard.

Clinton Top of the 4th
Pitching Change: Jamaine Cotton replaces Colton Cain.
Defensive Substitution: Jobduan Morales replaces shortstop Carlos Correa, batting 3rd, playing first base.
Defensive switch from first base to second base for Jesse Wierzbicki.
Defensive switch from second base to shortstop for Austin Elkins.
Jabari Henry flies out to center fielder Brett Phillips.
Ketel Marte flies out to left fielder Jordan Scott.
Dario Pizzano flies out to center fielder Brett Phillips

1869
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Rays @ Astros July 1, 2013
« on: July 01, 2013, 08:17:46 pm »
Well, they'll be tied for Rodon if they lose tonight

1870
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Quad Cities - 2013
« on: July 01, 2013, 02:34:23 pm »
I know Ruiz gets kind of just tacked on to these discussions...

But if the answer is
167/309/288
246/329/311
269/330/409
325/372/500

Then the question would have been: What are Ruiz' stats for April, May, June and last 10?

1871
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Quad Cities - 2013
« on: July 01, 2013, 01:26:06 pm »
Callis counters that by pointing out that the Astros could have gotten Buxton, McCullers, and a slot player for less than Correa, McCullers, and Ruiz, and that he'd certainly rather have the former.

That's assuming Buxton would have been okay with taking 6 of 7.2 million.  We know he signed for 6 of 6.2 million after Correa had accepted 4.8 of 7.2.  

ETA
Also the question posed to scouts was Buxton or the trio. 

1872
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Quad Cities - 2013
« on: July 01, 2013, 12:58:55 pm »
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/deja-vu-byron-buxton-stirs-echoes-of-mike-trout-in-cedar-rapids/

Quote
Who Would You Take?
Beyond comparing Trout and Buxton, scouts in the Midwest League had the opportunity this season to revisit the top of the 2012 draft and ask the question: Knowing what we know now, would you rather have Buxton, or the Astros’ draft haul of No. 1 pick Carlos Correa, as well as supplemental first-rounder Lance McCullers Jr. and second-rounder Rio Ruiz?

The Astros decided in 2012 to spread their draft budget over multiple players. So they signed Correa to a below-slot deal, then used the savings to sign McCullers and Ruiz to above-slot contracts. All three are now at Quad Cities. Correa is already considered one of the best shortstop prospects in the game. McCullers has showcased his excellent arm in the Midwest League, and Ruiz has shown flashes of his excellent potential at the plate.

Still, a survey of scouts who have seen all four indicates that one Buxton is better than the trio of Correa, Ruiz and McCullers, as a majority would take him over the Astros’ trio.

“Come on. It’s not even close,” an NL scouts said. “As I look at it, even if you had the plan to try to get three impact guys instead of one, the minute you walk into Buxton’s game, you have to scrap that plan and say, ‘We’re going with this guy.’ “

That opinion is not universal, however.

“Awesome as Buxton has been, I think you have to take the Astros’ trio,” an AL scouting executive said. “Especially because you might be getting another stud premium position player in Correa, who is still a little bit younger than Buxton. If this deal was on the table, I honestly don’t know who would say no first. Any way you slice it, the fact that we’re talking about trading three guys, one of whom went 1-1 last year, for a 19-year old in low-A ball is pretty insane.”

Maybe I'm just bias but I'd take the trio.  Correa was a bit more raw than Buxton.  No idea what either's ceiling is at this point.  But then add McCullers and it is an easy decision for me.  That's not even including Ruiz

1873
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2013
« on: July 01, 2013, 12:28:57 pm »
Quote
Additionally, he’s been seen sulking in the dugout after popping up or grounding out on numerous occasions. Scouts agree that he’s not giving 100 percent on the field on every play.

Time to hire his Dad to kick his ass.

1874
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2013
« on: July 01, 2013, 11:07:06 am »
A summary of BP's writeup on DeShields:

Still has tools (speed, good eye, ability to track pitches and bat speed)
Takes too many hittable strikes
Glove at second is still suspect
Sulking after failure
Some scouts wonder if effort and desire are there, two pick Aplin as best postion prospect in Lancaster and one picks Fontana.

It got me thinking that maybe the club pushed for his inclusion on the futures team in an attempt to shake things up, as his performance and the buzz surrounding him didn't hint at futures team.

He had a fairly poor April.  But he was also dinged up then.  Had a good May and decent June.  For me, the only thing that matters for DDS is OBP.  And he's done well at that.  Helps to hit for enough power that he'll draw walks.   Which he has.  Last 10 games, even though he has slumped with the bat he still has drawn 11 walks.

And the CS issue he had in April did not carry over to may.  15 out of 20 since April.






1875
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Quad Cities - 2013
« on: July 01, 2013, 08:48:49 am »
I suspect that they think his power is something that will just develop over time: a function of his swing and eventual strength. 

Or a promotion to Lancaster.  Instant power

1876
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Jakes @ Astros June 26, 2013
« on: June 26, 2013, 08:24:11 pm »
JD rbi ground out, Wallace RBI single, Dominguez ground out, Barnes RBI single, Elmore grounds out.  4-3 Astros after 4

1877
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Jakes @ Astros June 26, 2013
« on: June 26, 2013, 08:17:29 pm »
Wheels coming off the bus for Lynn. single(Altuve), single(CAstro) then 2 walks(Carter and Pena) on 8 pitches. Still no one out in the 4th

1878
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Turdinals @ Astros June 25, 2013
« on: June 26, 2013, 07:20:10 pm »
Depending on which article you read, Correa was either hit in the right forearm, elbow or hand. 

Whew, Correa is in the lineup tonight.

1879
Talk Zone / This could get interesting
« on: June 26, 2013, 04:45:00 pm »
Cubs, Kris Bryant "Nowhere Close" To Deal

This could get interesting because the Cubs are already over slot.  And supposedly signed their 12th round pick to 3rd round money putting them way over slot.  And thus at risk of losing a draft pick next year should the Bryant slot money be lost.

ETA.

For the numbers if it is true that the signed their 12th pick for say around a half million then they are 650k over.  They can go 525k over if they sign Bryant (5% of 10.5 million).  However if they can't then they only have 190k (5% of 3.8 million).  Really tough to make up 460k with the 2nd, 3rd, and a couple of other top 10 picks already locked in.  Boras is holding all the cards if this all is true.  They have to sign Bryant.  He'll make sure they pay Bryant every dollar possible now. Figure he is getting minimum 6.6 at this point.

1880
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: June 26, 2013, 09:18:49 am »
Perhaps the point was that he's looking not just for one quality player, but for multiple quality players?

Don't see how that is possible.  Norris's number are down slightly.  He's not giving up as many HRs and his walks are down some but he is getting hit a lot more and striking out a lot less.  Might look like he is pitching to contact more as he gets older and wiser but it has not led to him pitching any deeper into games.  The best thing he has going for him is he's not a rental and not too expensive.


1881
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Turdinals @ Astros June 25, 2013
« on: June 26, 2013, 08:13:49 am »
Any idea why Correa was replaced?

Depending on which article you read, Correa was either hit in the right forearm, elbow or hand. 

1882
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Turdinals @ Astros June 25, 2013
« on: June 26, 2013, 08:10:38 am »
So is Harrell now the weakest member of the starting staff?

1883
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2013
« on: June 25, 2013, 10:29:23 pm »
Fontana is back.  Doubled and scored in the first.

1884
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Turdinals @ Astros June 25, 2013
« on: June 25, 2013, 08:31:10 pm »
Quad Cities Top of the 3rd
Brett Phillips walks.
With Teoscar Hernandez batting, Brett Phillips advances to 2nd on a balk.
Teoscar Hernandez strikes out swinging.
With Carlos Correa batting, wild pitch by Brad Watson, Brett Phillips to 3rd.
Carlos Correa hit by pitch.
Jesse Wierzbicki out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Breyvic Valera. Brett Phillips scores. Carlos Correa to 2nd on the throw.
Roberto Pena singles on a line drive to left fielder Breyvic Valera. Carlos Correa scores. Roberto Pena to 2nd on the throw.
With Rio Ruiz batting, wild pitch by Brad Watson, Roberto Pena to 3rd.
Rio Ruiz grounds out, pitcher Brad Watson to first baseman Jeremy Schaffer.

Peoria Bottom of the 3rd
Jesus Montero called out on strikes.
Jimmy Parque strikes out swinging.
Breyvic Valera flies out to left fielder Jordan Scott.

Quad Cities Top of the 4th
Austin Elkins triples (1) on a fly ball to center fielder Nick Martini.
Brian Blasik grounds out, shortstop Ildemaro Vargas to first baseman Jeremy Schaffer.
Jordan Scott singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Nick Martini. Austin Elkins scores.
Brett Phillips flies out to left fielder Breyvic Valera.
With Teoscar Hernandez batting, Jordan Scott steals (17) 2nd base.
Teoscar Hernandez singles on a ground ball to third baseman Patrick Wisdom. Jordan Scott to 3rd.
Offensive Substitution: Pinch-hitter Jobduan Morales replaces Carlos Correa. Jobduan Morales singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jimmy Parque. Jordan Scott scores. Teoscar Hernandez to 3rd.
Jesse Wierzbicki grounds into a force out, fielded by second baseman Jacob Wilson. Jobduan Morales out at 2nd.

1885
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Turdinals @ Astros June 25, 2013
« on: June 25, 2013, 07:28:58 pm »
3 up 3 down in the top and bottom of the 1st.

Yes but Wallace lined out to left.  Which feels like a homerun given his April run

1886
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: June 25, 2013, 02:00:38 pm »
Ugh, I hope "volume" doesn't mean quantity over quality.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9412832/mlb-trade-deadline-preview

Quote
Bud Norris: Astros GM Jeff Luhnow has the go-ahead from ownership to deal just about anyone, although local cult hero fave Jose Altuve and catcher Jason Castro will probably be priced too high to move. But of all the items in the Astros' showroom, no one is a better bet to get traded than Norris. He's 28. He's under control for 2½ more seasons. He's making $3 million a year. And while teams have noticed his strikeout rate is down and his WHIP is up, he remains an attractive commodity for clubs willing to give up multiple prospects. The Astros, said one NL exec, are looking for "volume" in any deal they make.

1887
Talk Zone / Re: Moving Day
« on: June 25, 2013, 01:30:02 pm »
Not following.  What did:
Quote
Probably trying to deal Pena and it gives Singleton a spot in OKC.

have to do with:
clearing the 40-man spot.


1888
Talk Zone / Re: Moving Day
« on: June 25, 2013, 12:26:30 pm »
Elmore and Wallace recalled, per Brian Smith.

And thus begins likely Wallace's last chance.  If he can succeed, they'll have a nice problem next year.

1889
Talk Zone / Re: In former Astros news...
« on: June 25, 2013, 11:39:14 am »
Bogusevic called up by the Cubs.  (At the same time they throw in the towel on Marmol and Ian Stewart)

1890
Talk Zone / Re: Fuck Bud Norris
« on: June 25, 2013, 09:13:01 am »
In case you missed it, McTaggart to the PR rescue

1891
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / 6 in the top 100
« on: June 25, 2013, 08:19:21 am »
Flipping through the top 20 prospects lists today on mlb.com.  I noticed the Stros now have 6 of the top 100.  Not sure when they updated their lists.  Apologies if someone had pointed it out. 

#25 - Singleton
#28 - Correa
#51 - Springer
#79 - Cosart
#87 - DeShields
#94 - McCullers

Which does not include a certain someone turning heads at AA popping triple digits on the gun.

And of course Appel.


1892
Talk Zone / Re: Moving Day
« on: June 24, 2013, 08:06:45 pm »
Villar/Cedeno platoon makes sense offensively. 

1893
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2013
« on: June 24, 2013, 09:00:18 am »
Gaston maybe? My like for Tucker is based around his plate discipline and ability to make contact. Who knows? I can see him and JD platooning in a year or so. Since he already has good plate discipline, I would think he'd move quickly.

I'd like to see him in Corpus by his 23rd birthday (7/6).  

Another guy who has done really well at Lancaster this year is Duffy.  19 months older than Meyer, he's improved each year never having to repeat a level.  Given Duffy's age, it would be good for him to knock off 2 levels this year(if he is to at all stand a chance of making it). Likely would mean giving up on Meyer though.


1894
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Oklahoma City - 2013
« on: June 23, 2013, 07:24:23 pm »
Brady Rodgers throwing for OKC tonight.  (in the second half of a double header)

1895
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: BA 2013 Hot Sheet
« on: June 21, 2013, 05:24:42 pm »
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-june-21-taijuan-walker-is-cruising-through-the-southern-league/

Quote
10. Jarred Cosart, rhp, Astros
Team: Triple-A Oklahoma City (Pacific Coast)
Age: 23
Why He’s Here: 2-0, 1.50, 12 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 11 SO

The Scoop: Mark Appel has been the one getting all the headlines—and deservedly so as the No. 1 pick in the draft—but the Astros have a promising group of pitchers in the upper levels who aren’t far away from contributing in Houston. One of them is Cosart, who has used a power fastball to keep his ERA down to 2.97 with 79 strikeouts in 75 2/3 innings. Cosart’s strikeout rate has continued to climb as he’s become a more advanced pitcher, but he will have to figure out how to throw more strikes before he’s ready for a callup.


1896
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Astros @ Cubs June 21, 2013
« on: June 21, 2013, 04:51:07 pm »
Strike'em out throw'em out 2 down bottom of first.  Sparks said Barney slid short, came up short of the bag

1897
Talk Zone / Re: Crowe to the DL, Krauss called up
« on: June 21, 2013, 04:42:28 pm »
Seaton released from the 40-man to make room

1898
Talk Zone / Re: In former Astros news...
« on: June 21, 2013, 03:14:55 pm »
Valverde DFA'd

I say nab him.  Only 18 hits and 6 walks in 19.1 innings.  With 19 Ks.  Yeah 6 HRs, but hopefully that is just fluky


1899
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 21, 2013, 03:07:44 pm »
But Manaea was a supplemental rd. 1 pick like McCullers, so would the rd. 2 slot apply?

Slightly confused.  Were you trying to say it was a pipe dream because he wasn't expensive enough to fall 2-1 or that the Stros didn't have enough money available?   

1900
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 21, 2013, 12:26:46 pm »
FWIW, Manaea took $3.5MM to reel in, per Callis.

If that number was floating around pre-draft, no wonder getting him and Appel was a pipe dream.

Actually that was quite doable.  1.45 from the Appel savings plus 1.4 million for the 2nd round pick plus 570k from the allowed overage with only a cash penalty and you are pretty much there.  Of course you'd have to draft a little differently on 3-10, but getting Manaea could have been worth it.

1901
Talk Zone / Re: Fuck Bud Norris
« on: June 21, 2013, 10:12:26 am »
look, pal, I am sorry I offended your brother.

take it up with Solomon.

Not offended by Solomon.  He is who he is.  Just didn't want his blog write up given credibility.  And whether you realize it or not, your opinion holds credibility.  

1902
Talk Zone / Re: Fuck Bud Norris
« on: June 21, 2013, 09:39:57 am »
From what I can tell from this side of the pay wall most of solomon's comments were based off of cherry-picking this aricle:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/houston-astros-bud-norris-good-bet-to-be-on-move-by-trade-deadline-jeff-luhnow-san-francisco-giants-061813-

1903
Talk Zone / Re: Fuck Bud Norris
« on: June 21, 2013, 09:32:48 am »
the article said after a recent loss, he blamed everybody and everything, including the air conditioning.

sorry, pots, if he is your cousin, but fuck Bud Norris. shut up and pitch.

The only air conditioning comment I can find is when they were at fielding practice the AC shutoff temproarily and joked to a teammate that it was due to Appel's contract (saving money).  Wasn't made to the press, wasn't meant to be serious.  Maybe there is a different air conditioning comment?

1904
Talk Zone / Re: Fuck Bud Norris
« on: June 21, 2013, 08:15:12 am »
I just read the Jerome Solomon column. The whiny little baby wants out in the worst way. I hope he gets his wish soon.

Sorry if the column has been talked about elsewhere. My Cabrera meter is in the shop.

Yeah, can you provide a quote?  Bud hadn't said a single thing prior to whatever this guy in the article may have quoted that calls for this kind of attack.  The only border line thing he said was when asked what his feelings on a possible trade to the Giants (after they showed interest), he said it would be a dream come true, but immediately followed it with he also loves playing for the Astros.  He grew up in SF and dreamed of playing for them as a kid.  Luhnow was asked about it and said it was not a big deal and was not shocked that a person would dream of playing for their hometown team.

Here's the other quote that Bud has made recently that was risky (but not bad and but unfortunatelky easily abused by somebody trying to sell newspapers):
Quote
"There's a lot going on around me. I've seen a lot of trades in my 3 1/2 years up here.
"I've seen stable, veteran players get moved to new organizations. Sometimes you don't understand why it's not you. So, it's been tough. ... Now that my name's the one popping up, it's a little different feeling. At the end of the day, I need to prepare myself to pitch every five days for the team I'm on. I've been in Houston my entire career. All I know is pitching for this team. If it changes, it changes. But it's not going to change my aspect of going out there and pitching."
"You have to be informed," he said. "I don't think you want to be blindsided by it: One day, you come to the park and, boom, you're gone. I don't pay too much attention to it, but I'm definitely in the loop. I get tidbits here and there ... But it comes down to the front office. I have to impress somebody enough where they want to come get me."

Unless Solomon had something new, this thread should be whacked

1905
Talk Zone / Re: Crowe to the DL, Krauss called up
« on: June 21, 2013, 08:10:45 am »
What's Krauss's deal?

Good power.  Good plate awareness.  They weren't excited about him enough to protect him on the 40 man.  He's done well at AAA this year. 

1906
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Brewers @ Astros June 20, 2013
« on: June 20, 2013, 04:21:20 pm »
That was a pick off from Cisnero

Huh could have sworn Sparks said Corporan, either way

1907
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Brewers @ Astros June 20, 2013
« on: June 20, 2013, 03:47:41 pm »
Apparantly Corporan has a cannon.  Broke the glove of Altuve on a throw to second.  Right through the webbing and on into centerfield

1908
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: June 20, 2013, 02:35:32 pm »
This. It would be a waste for them to divert their attention from contending in 2015 and beyond.

Ah, thanks.  Contending.  Contending (for the playoffs) in 2015 and beyond. 

1909
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: June 20, 2013, 08:43:39 am »
I think that they can be competitive next season. 

You and I may have different meanings of competitive.  When I say competitive I expect them to be in a playoff hunt.  I think they could be around 500 next year. 

1910
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Brewers @ Astros June 19, 2013
« on: June 19, 2013, 10:01:22 pm »
Well, fuck. Great start by Bedard wasted.

Given up 2 or less runs in the 7 of the 8 starts since regaining a starting spot on May 11th.


1911
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Brewers @ Astros June 19, 2013
« on: June 19, 2013, 09:50:39 pm »
Ouch, caught stealing taking away a 3-1 count to Carter.

1912
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Oklahoma City - 2013
« on: June 19, 2013, 08:03:52 pm »
WTHB interview with Cosart: LINK

I got Ruebened

1913
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 19, 2013, 08:02:42 pm »
I think the hard slotting constraints of the new CBA also plays into this.

Agreed.  So highly unlikely a team is ever going to want to give up draft picks for the next year.  So all you are fighting over is 100s of thousands and not millions.  Better the kid signs earlier to get his careeer started faster (so he can get the big payday quicker)

1914
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: June 19, 2013, 01:20:45 pm »
The problem with Norris is the plan.  The plan is to start being competitve in 2015.  And Bud is 28 and will be 30 for the start of the 2015 season.  If you believe Norris is peaking and will be in decline in 2015 then trading him now (for the right offer) makes sense.  If you believe Bud is still improving and will be peaking in 2015 then trading him is a bad move.  

And by right offer I mean getting some can't miss prospect or 2 that should provide greater value in 2015 and beyond then Bud will be in 2015 and beyond.  

1915
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Oklahoma City - 2013
« on: June 19, 2013, 10:28:55 am »
WTHB interviews Cosart


Apparantly he went into the season looking to get better control of his secondary pitches, which he has succeeded doing, but lost control of his fastball in the process.  Doh

1916
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Oklahoma City - 2013
« on: June 19, 2013, 10:16:55 am »
Thoughts on June performances ...

Who's Hot
   Brett Wallace (.344/.400/.547) has been raking, but may see reduction in PT with Singleton's return to AAA
   Jonathan Villar (.321/.371/.500 with 3HR and 9SB against 0CS)
   Asher Wojciechowski (1-0, 1.45 and 20K in 18.2IP)
   Brad Peacock (1-0, 0.73 and 9:1 K:BB ratio in 12.1IP)

Who's Not
   Robbie Grossman (.170/.274/.264 with 18K in 65PA)
   Ross Seaton (0-2, 11.81 4:9 K:BB in 10.2IP and a 2.4+WHIP)
   Brett Oberholtzer (1-2, 7.41)

What's New

Singleton will likely take over at 1B pushing Wallace to DH and Krauss to DH/OF.  Jake Elmore has seen time in LF too as Jose Martinez splits time between 3B & 2B.  Odd man out appears to be super-util Simunic.

Odd man out is F-Mart

1917
Talk Zone / Re: F-Mart dealt
« on: June 19, 2013, 08:26:13 am »
Solves the problem of the extra guy at OKC (due to Singleton's call up)

1918
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Greeneville - 2013
« on: June 18, 2013, 04:25:10 pm »
Wow, I had no clue about Abreu... (from the link above)

Alan Abreu (GCL) - This is a great story.  Abreu was signed as a non drafted free agent out of Lander University by the Astros after a private workout in September of 2011 as a pitcher.  They signed this guy who:

"never pitched in his two years at Lander. Nor did Abreu pitch for Eastern Kentucky University, where he played his freshman year. Abreu didn't even pitch in high school. Believe it or not, he never even pitched in little league ball.


23 years old, just learning how to pitch.  Likely looking at a minimum of age 27 before a first cup of coffee.  Definitely odd.  Well he has a young arm though


1919
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: White Sox @ Astros June 17, 2013
« on: June 17, 2013, 09:30:32 pm »
Like to think that Cedeno could have had Konerko at first had it fielded that ball.  Need to get that changed to an error to keep Bud's ERA down

1920
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: White Sox @ Astros June 17, 2013
« on: June 17, 2013, 09:05:36 pm »
Same result. 2-0 Astros end of 5.

Yeah just thought it was really odd not pitching to a guy with a low 200 average.  I know he has power but all it takes is a single to knock in the guy from second  

1921
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: White Sox @ Astros June 17, 2013
« on: June 17, 2013, 08:58:13 pm »
Can't walk Carter now, runner on first and second this time

1922
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: White Sox @ Astros June 17, 2013
« on: June 17, 2013, 08:46:38 pm »
Pretty damning for Pena.  Intentional walking Carter with 2 outs and a runner on second. 

1923
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: June 17, 2013, 10:47:07 am »
I'm with you, except there better be at least one arm with front-of-the-rotation potential.

Well unless you get yourself a Profar type guy.  Too bad that Carter's numbers weren't closer to last years.  Another 100 OPS and Norris & Carter might be intriguing enough to get some talks going.

ETA:
Carter's road numbers are oddly really good.  270/361/539 on the road versus 162/240/333 at home.  Perhaps that could be played up.  

1924
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Oklahoma City - 2013
« on: June 17, 2013, 09:28:29 am »
You didn't see the whole paragraph I wrote about Villar and his splits in the post directly above yours?

Sorry, missed it.  (fixed it)

1925
Talk Zone / Re: Norris to be in high demand?
« on: June 17, 2013, 09:17:10 am »
I would prefer to have him numbered among those that the Astros intend to build around. They have enough prospects; they don't need to trade him for more. If they must trade him, Texas might be a good partner. The Rangers are in a headlong panic and might make an advantageous trade partner. Profar is said to be available. Norris and Martinez might do the trick.

The #1 prospect in all the minors (to start the season) for Norris and Martinez.  Done.  Quickly before Daniels wakes up.

1926
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Oklahoma City - 2013
« on: June 17, 2013, 09:13:35 am »
Singleton made his AAA debut last noght going 2 for 4 with a couple of doubles and a k.  Wallace DH'ed.  

Villar with 2 solo shots going 3 for 5.  He's having a really good June so far.  (As Reuben stated last week in the post right before this one) his splits are interesting.  He dominates right handers and is completely lost against lefties.  OPS 897 verus 541.  Cedeno has an equally outrageous split going the other way 356 versus 1007.  Perhaps a platoon might be in order?  




1927
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: White Sox @ Astros June 16, 2013
« on: June 17, 2013, 08:45:09 am »
Team ERA for the current active roster is 4.09, which ranks them right in the middle of the pack.  Not bad. 

1928
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2013
« on: June 17, 2013, 08:22:27 am »
Interesting note in the Hooks game yesterday.  Even though Buchanan got slapped around pretty good, he was allowed to pitch into the 6th.  Perhaps the end of tandems at Corpus?

1929
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: White Sox @ Astros June 16, 2013
« on: June 16, 2013, 01:50:46 pm »
Dominguez with a 3-run double in the bottom of the second 3-0

1930
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: White Sox @ Astros June 15, 2013
« on: June 15, 2013, 08:59:09 pm »
Correa with a walkoff hit:

Quad Cities Bottom of the 9th
Teoscar Hernandez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Andrew Ray.
Carlos Correa singles on a ground ball to left fielder Andrew Ray. Teoscar Hernandez scores.

1931
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: White Sox @ Astros June 15, 2013
« on: June 15, 2013, 08:57:40 pm »
Harrell now 2-0 against the team that dropped him

1932
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: BA 2013 Hot Sheet
« on: June 14, 2013, 12:54:04 pm »
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-june-14-joey-gallo-slugs-seven-home-runs/

Quote
6. Carlos Correa, ss, Astros
Team: low Class A Quad Cities (Midwest)
Age: 18
Why He’s Here: .375/.474/.531 (12-for-32), 10 R, 2 2B, 1 HR, 7 RBIs, 6 BB, 8 SO, 1-for-1 SB

The Scoop: Because he plays in the same league as Byron Buxton, the player he was taken one spot ahead of in the 2012 draft, it’s maybe a little to easy to be disappointed by Correa’s first full season. While Buxton leads the Midwest League in a large number of offensive categories, Correa appears nowhere among the league leaders. But after a slow start, Correa is showing an excellent approach at the plate. He shrugs at balls off the plate, works counts into his favor and drives pitches back up the middle for singles and doubles. When you look at his Manny Machado-like frame, it’s easy to see that more power will come as he matures.


In the team photo:
Quote
Jonathan Singleton, 1b, Astros: After sitting out the first 50 games of the season while serving a suspension due to testing positive for marijuana, Singleton is now back to smoking the competition on the field. He’s hitting .313/.410/.625 with two home runs in nine games for Double-A Corpus Christi as a 21-year-old.


1933
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: 06/12/13 Astros at Mariners
« on: June 13, 2013, 04:35:21 pm »
Seriously?  The list of players drafted 1 and S1 after 21 who will do more at the major league level than Mier is at at least 10.

I said get excited about.  Other than Trout do you have 10 guys to get excited about in those 28?  In other words at minimum be more than a utility player/middle reliever.

(not out of the realm of possibility that Mier ends up being a utility guy for a some team for a few years.  He is supposed to be major league ready defensively now)

1934
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: 06/12/13 Astros at Mariners
« on: June 13, 2013, 03:13:05 pm »
Perhaps I shouldn't be so critical of 2009.  Other than this guy called Trout.  There isn't a whole lot to get excited about at 21 and later.  Nor really that much before it.  

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draft/research.asp




1935
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: 06/12/13 Astros at Mariners
« on: June 13, 2013, 10:50:46 am »
Not sure how many, All stars/front end rotation, regulars/mid-to-back end rotation/closer, utility/middle relief players you should expect from one draft but:

2008
Castro - Likely a regular
Lyles - Possibe Allstar
Shuck - Utility player

Still not done yet: Seaton, Luis Cruz, Simunic, Rene Garcia

I'd rate this draft good.


2009 (not Hecks best moment)
Keuchel - I still think he can service as a more permanent back end rotation (not there yet)
JD Martinez - He's a regular now but only because of the team he's on.  Should rate as a high as a utlility player though.

Still not done yet: Mier, Bushue, Nash, Meyer, Wikoff, Enrique Hernandez, Erik Castro, Goebbert

I'd rate this draft poor.  Would require a real late turnaround from Mier/Nash/Bushue/Meyer to bring this one out of the hole.


2010
Nobody in the majors yet but not surprising since 3 of the top 4 were HS

DeShields - Still a potential all star
Folty - potential front of rotation
Velasquez - potential front of rotation
Wates - likely to at least get Utility role at some point
Doran - Could see middle relief or bust
Roberto Pena - long ways to go but improving
Buchanan - mid-to-back end rotation still possible
Alex Sogard - possible middle releif

Not done yet: Shirley, Robinson, Jordan Scott, Jamaine Cotton, Chis Wallace,

I'd rate this draft very good at this point with the possibility to get better or worse

2011
Springer - potential all star
Houser - long ways to go
Jack Armstrong - been a long wait to see him toss a pitch
Tropeano - potential mid-to-back end rotation

Plethora of  folks that haven't defined their career either way

Too early to rate


2012 - considered to be one of the best drafts of all time.   Can't rate yet for obvious reasons.

ETA.  Prior to 2012, Heck had only an 8th, 10th and 11th overall pick.

1936
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: 06/12/13 Astros at Mariners
« on: June 13, 2013, 09:39:50 am »
Not sure I'd agree with that... A lot of his high picks have already proven to be big whiffs, and some are well on the way to becoming so as well...

2008: rd 2- Jay Austin; rd. 4- TJ Steele;
2009: rd 1- Jio Mier; rd.2- Tanner Bushue; rd.3 - Telvin Nash (there is still time for one of these youngsters to turn things around, but they need to do so in a hurry and it is looking pretty doubtful as to one or more of 'em); rd.4- BJ Hyatt;
2010:  rd.1 supp- Kvasnicka

This is an unfair assessment.  well more than half of all first round picks flop, let alone second, third and fourth rounders.  You got to judge Heck by the picks that succeed not the ones that fail.  (Maybe not top 10 picks though)  Those you would like to see succeed more often than not.



1937
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2013
« on: June 12, 2013, 09:57:53 am »
Pots is correct: I am the dumbass.  The premium position was a large part of my thinking at the time.  What I failed to properly remember, until I saw it again last night, is just how freaking competant Singleton looks at the plate.  Some hitters rarely look like they control the AB, while it is pretty frequent with him.

Thanks for tip about about the Hernandez article; I'll hunt it down.

I was close to doing the same thing with Springer and Singleton, mostly due to their respective positions.  But then remembered Singleton is 2 years younger than Springer.

ETA
The K rate thing is just odd.  His walk rate is good.  Average is good.  Power is great.  Speed is good.  1024 OPS is fantastic for that league.  Only one guy better and 70 points higher than the next guy.  Prior to last nights 4k night he had been better with only 7 Ks total over the 9 previous games. So if last night was only a temporary blip on his way to improving...

1938
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2013
« on: June 12, 2013, 09:35:07 am »
I suspect those who rank him above Singleton (I have no opinion) value Springer's speed and great defense at a premium position.

Pretty sure that was a dig at himself

1939
Talk Zone / Re: Ian Kennedy: Headhunter
« on: June 12, 2013, 05:32:18 am »
Not sure why Grienke wasn't tossed on his.  That one was obviously intentional.  To me the umps messed this one up.  Warnings yet or not, you can toss someone for an intentional beaning at anytime.

1940
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: The piggyback system
« on: June 11, 2013, 01:20:39 pm »
Option 2 (Seaton to the pen)

OKC:
Cosart
Wojo
Buchanan
Oberholtzer
David Martinez

To pen:
Seaton

Cut:
Humber

CC:
Folty
Tropeano
Doran
Quevedo
Rodgers

To the pen:
Heidenreich
Alaniz

Lancaster:
Rollins
West
Cruz
Hallock
Devenski

To the pen:
Perez
Walters

QC:
McCullers
Velasquez
Jankowski
Minor
Hauschild

To the pen:
Holmes
Cain
Cotton

1941
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: The piggyback system
« on: June 11, 2013, 01:11:15 pm »
Well, it has been a couple of months. No idea what their plans are but here is a shot at breaking up the tandems:

OKC:
Cosart
Wojo
Buchanan
Oberholtzer
Seaton

Cut:
Humber

CC:
Folty
David Martinez
Tropeano
Doran
Quevedo

To the pen:
Heidenreich
Alaniz

Lancaster:
Rodgers
Rollins
West
Cruz
Hallock

To the pen:
Devenski (darn it)
Perez
Walters

QC:
McCullers
Velasquez
Jankowski
Minor
Hauschild

To the pen:
Holmes
Cain
Cotton

1942
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Astros @ Mariners June 10, 2013
« on: June 11, 2013, 02:18:16 am »
Back to back organizational spanking days.  0-10

1943
  Stoffel could probably compete there too. 

Was surprised they didn't protect him on the 40-man this year.  Also surprised he didn't get poached with the Rule 5 draft.  And then surprised yet again that he started the year at CC.  Must be something about this guy that people don't like.


1944
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: New Astros Top 10?!?
« on: June 10, 2013, 08:25:01 am »
There's that, and this year's draft was very safe. Not that there won't be good players who come out of it, but Elias admits that they focused on polish. Maybe that's code for "Appel's getting a lot of money, so we can't go crazy" or "We're not sure what Appel is going to cost, so we'll wait until after Round 10 to pick overslot guys so we don't lose cap space". Either way, there were guys available in Rounds 2 and possibly 3 who I would have put on this list. Not at the top, like previous years, though.

Yeah, I was dissappointed with how it went.  Might just be a reflection of how weak the class was this year.  The entire draft class seems like Appel and the rest.  Last year there was 5 or 6 guys to get excited about.  Seemed like they were missing the heck out of somebody this year. 

1945
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: New Astros Top 10?!?
« on: June 09, 2013, 03:31:25 pm »
So... presuming the Astros sign their first 5 picks from the 2013 draft, how would you rank the Astros Top 10 prospects now?  For me, it changes every time I think about it, but for the moment (and it will likely change immediately after I hit 'post'), I think it goes like this:

1. Correa
2. Appel (2013 Draft)
3. Springer
4. Singleton
5. Foltynewicz
6. Cozart
7. McCUllers, Jr.
8. DeShields, Jr.
9. Tropeano
10. Thurman (2013 Draft)


Thoughts?


1. Correa
2. Singleton
3. Appel (2013 Draft)
4. Foltynewicz
5. Springer
6. McCullers, Jr.
7. DeShields, Jr.
8. Cozart
9. Tropeano
10. Fontana

Thurman is a pitchability guy.  He's going to have to do something with it professionally before he cracks my top 10.  Honorable mentions to Wojciechowski and Carlos Perez.  Everytime I look at this list I change the order.

1946
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2013
« on: June 07, 2013, 07:40:33 pm »
Is this a pre-step to Fontana's promotion?

1947
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 07, 2013, 01:56:07 pm »
the guys not signed by the Astros last year, have they been drafted this year?

anyone know what happened to them?

The 2 notable ones were HS players so they won't be available till after there junior year.  I checked on them recently.  Neither did well in their freshman year.  I think Virant must have gotten hurt he only had a few innings pitched

1948
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 07, 2013, 01:40:33 pm »
1 pick from the clock...best avail according to MLB:

PLAYER   SCHOOL   POS   B/T   CLASS   PLAYER INFO
   Wahl, Bobby   Ole Miss (MS)   RHP   R/R   JR
   Serrano, Kyle   Farragut HS (TN)   RHP   R/R   HS
   Jones, Connor   Great Bridge HS (VA)   RHP   R/R   HS

BA has these 3, 34-36.  

I think it's a forgone conclusion that Serrano is going to pitch for his Dad

1949
Talk Zone / Re: Interesting tidbit from SI
« on: June 07, 2013, 01:25:51 pm »
Well Humber is still in second for most runs given up.  (only Harrell who has twice as many innings pitched has given up more).  There 3 worst culprits for giving up runs are not on the MLB team.  So they've improved by replacement.  Only Peacock is still left in the bottom 5.  And if you exclude Peacock and Fields(who hasn't had a lot of innings yet) every pitcher is below an ERA of 5

1950
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 07, 2013, 01:05:08 pm »
Let's consider the fact that they certainly have inside information on whether Cavan will sign at a certain point.
Ah, so the assumption is if he gets drafted now then he's headed to college anyways

1951
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 07, 2013, 12:57:01 pm »
Wow, really thought we would have taken Cavan Biggio by now.  That would have seemingly been a value pick there.  Do they really want him on another team?

1952
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 07, 2013, 12:49:16 pm »
I thought the offer was more $1M'ish.  What is the slot $ for where he was taken today?

3-1 was 700k so a little lower than that

1953
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 06, 2013, 10:52:30 pm »
Cavan Biggio available at 3-1. 

1954
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 06, 2013, 10:03:07 pm »
Basically waiting to see if Cavan will be available at 3-1

1955
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 06, 2013, 09:57:20 pm »
Better than Pedro Astacio's announcement.  Ouch.

Yeah, McMahon is not what I would have guessed from what he said

1956
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 06, 2013, 09:39:52 pm »
Well...

Crap.

Any other lefties worth 40?

Hunter Green?

1957
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 06, 2013, 08:59:06 pm »
Well there goes the Stanek fun

1958
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 06, 2013, 08:53:23 pm »
Cards have taken 2 lefties.  Neither named Manaea.  Stanek's free fall has the MLB commentators befuddled

1959
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 06, 2013, 08:44:48 pm »
Yankees Jagielo pick probably means they aren't going to stack up one pick to get a Manaea or Stanek (though they say Stanek was not known to have a signability issue)

1960
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 06, 2013, 08:38:21 pm »
San Fran with the first pick they've been shocked about

1961
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 06, 2013, 08:37:13 pm »
Once again, Reynolds needs to shut up.

Mayo succeeded

1962
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 06, 2013, 08:21:52 pm »
I think he signs relatively fast.  In Luhnow I trust.

I agree.  I think he signs fast.  Wouldn't be surprised if both sides have already agreed on an approxiamte number.  The biggest question is how much that is.  The 2-1 pick will likely suggest it

1963
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 06, 2013, 08:06:37 pm »
St Louis at 19 should be interesting.  They had been rumored with Manaea.  Though not sure if there is enough cash at 2-1 to get him anyways

Manaea falls and so does Stanek.

1964
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 06, 2013, 08:03:26 pm »
These announcers are fucking homers. I want to hear a "that was a stretch" just once.

Nope you were right, definitely some homerism going on

1965
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 06, 2013, 07:55:05 pm »
With Appel's season over already, no reason he couldn't sign right away.  

1966
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 06, 2013, 07:52:28 pm »
St Louis at 19 should be interesting.  They had been rumored with Manaea.  Though not sure if there is enough cash at 2-1 to get him anyways

1967
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 06, 2013, 07:42:40 pm »
Wow, these picks are pretty much going straight down the list.  BAs top 12 already drafted.  Stanek is there 13th.  Likely soon for him.

ETA
Correction, Dozier was ranked 39th.  That would be the only surprise as far as BAs list is concerned

1968
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 06, 2013, 06:17:07 pm »
Nice, safe pick

1969
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 06, 2013, 05:47:41 pm »
Just wondering.  A players ability to sign usually plays into consideration

1970
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 06, 2013, 05:45:27 pm »
Yes, because all 29 other teams aren't passing on them.

If he says he has a 5 million offer and will pass on anything less, teams might go elsewhere

1971
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2013 Draftees and Status
« on: June 06, 2013, 05:41:24 pm »
Couldn't the Stros try and get somebody to hold out to 2-1.  Like a Frazier.  Tell them, hey we like you and Stewart equally.  We are taking Stewart 1-1 at 4.5 to 5 million.  Should you be still available at 2-1 we'd love to offer you the same package.

Would that be wrong?

1972
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Early 2013 Draft Thread
« on: June 06, 2013, 04:55:47 pm »
It's so hard to be critical one way or the other, but I wouldn't be a fan of this pick.

It all depends on who they get with the money later on.  Rather Stewart than Moran.  I'd guess Stewart would be for 4.8 to match Correa of last year then they'd have 3 million to over slot folks plus than can go something like 587k over with only a financial penalty.  

1973
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Early 2013 Draft Thread
« on: June 06, 2013, 04:43:24 pm »
This Stewart thing seems like a real possibility.  Very interesting.  Immediate reactions to the Stros draft will end up being who they can get with the extra cash later on.  

ETA
And I'd like to point out not one industry expert, hack or otherwise had Stewart at 1-1.  Heck he wasn't in any of the lists of who the Stros were even considering for 1-1

1974
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Early 2013 Draft Thread
« on: June 06, 2013, 04:21:36 pm »
Kohl Stewart arguably has the greatest potential of all the top 10 guys, but a HS pitcher with 1-1, that's some brass ones

1975
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Early 2013 Draft Thread
« on: June 06, 2013, 03:55:58 pm »
https://twitter.com/jimcallisBA/status/342745434755833857

Quote
Deja vu. Two hours before #mlbdraft, no concrete idea of what #Astros will do at No. 1. Killing me!

1976
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Early 2013 Draft Thread
« on: June 06, 2013, 03:29:16 pm »
Decision made?

https://twitter.com/astros/status/342738298629943296
Quote
All quiet in the #Astros draft room for now. Astros to make tonight's 1st overall pick at 6 pm CT on @MLBNetwork. pic.twitter.com/FSWat5Xus7

1977
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Early 2013 Draft Thread
« on: June 06, 2013, 01:40:28 pm »
I thought this piece was interesting:
Appel is looking less likely with each passing hour.  

And add this nugget:
So if the Stros go Bryant and the Cubs choose Gray and the Rockies pick Smith (especially with Byrant off the board), then Appel could be staring at a 4.5 million slot at best.  

Copied from MLBTR:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/06/draft-notes-twins-stewart-mariners-red-sox.html#disqus_thread
Quote
The Twins would be "pleased" if Gray or third baseman Kris Bryant made it past the first three picks, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.  It isn't as certain if the club would be happy if Stanford right-hander Mark Appel was still available, as Appel is advised by Scott Boras and would likely be a tougher sign.


ETA oops had the wrong link, the other has all the slot money info


1978
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Early 2013 Draft Thread
« on: June 06, 2013, 01:04:49 pm »
And then Law comes in with the curve....
https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/342702559808585729

Quote
Fair. Appel + him would be a nice bundle. RT @MorganHook: @keithlaw what are chances Manaea is still on board at 40 for Astros?


1979
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Early 2013 Draft Thread
« on: June 06, 2013, 01:03:00 pm »
I just cant imagine that people in their profession, after scouting these two for years, would conclude that it is a virtual coin flip.  However, if they do, then what you say makes a lot of sense.

No I'm sure they all settle on a pick as that is what they are hired for but I imagine that is more of a I like this player A more, but it wouldn't surprise me if player B turns out to be better.  Than a player A and there is no chance player B will be better.

1980
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Early 2013 Draft Thread
« on: June 06, 2013, 12:57:27 pm »
When the population holding the opinion includes everyone in the baseball community, pundits, fans, etc., then yeah, there are plenty of people who prefer one over the other.  But, within the Astros organization, more specifically, Luhnow and Elias, their reputations and futures depend on getting these things right.  Five years from now, if their pick sucks, and the one who asked for too much is a star, no one will remember the mitigating factors, and they will rightly look like fools.  But, they aren't fools, and they know this.  


So if you take in the fact that any prospect no matter how good can bomb out, then does it not make more sense to get 2 or 3 high value picks if possible?  Given you lower your best pick by just a little bit

1981
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Early 2013 Draft Thread
« on: June 06, 2013, 12:49:32 pm »
So for this year, if you came up with a grading system that had Appel at a 98 and Gray at a 97.  If Gray wants 2 million less than Appel, is it not worth it to take Gray and be able to improve later picks by a much more significant margin than just the 1 point for Appel?  (if it means getting an 85 with the second pick instead of a 75?).  Or is it better to just go BPA and take the 98 and 75?

1982
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Early 2013 Draft Thread
« on: June 06, 2013, 12:37:43 pm »
I agree about the draft.  Missing out on Buxton or Gausman might be monumental, but if Correa works out well, they will have done well also. 

However, I have always assumed that the bit about them willing to take Appel if the price was right was Boras' spin.  If true, it brings into question their ability to evaluate talent (at the moment at least, as these thing fluctuate) as the concensus seems to be that Buxton and Gausman, just for starters, were far more worthy than Appel. 

Picking Correa over Buxton allowed the Stros to land McCullers and Ruiz.  Does their success or failure weigh in on whether or not it is Monumental?  I mean if Correa completely bombs but McCullers goes on to 4 CYs and Ruiz 8 All Star games...

1983
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Early 2013 Draft Thread
« on: June 06, 2013, 12:27:19 pm »
I don't see how this year is that much different from last year.  There are plenty of people that think Bryant is the BPA and plenty who think Appel is.  And Moran and Gray have been touted as BPA as well.  Financial discussions will likely continue all day.  I would not be surprised if the final answer is still under discussion.


1984
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Early 2013 Draft Thread
« on: June 06, 2013, 09:49:38 am »
Callis' final mock.

I thought this piece was interesting:
Quote
There was a lot of buzz Wednesday evening that the Cubs were closing in on a deal with Appel at No. 2, which could mean: a) he’d subsequently try to scare off Houston; b) he’d see if the Astros could trump Chicago’s offer; or c) no agreement is imminent and this is just an attempt to increase his leverage.

Appel is looking less likely with each passing hour. 

And add this nugget:
Quote
I’m told Gray’s positive test isn’t an issue with the Cubs either, and some of their decision-makers may prefer him to Appel.

So if the Stros go Bryant and the Cubs choose Gray and the Rockies pick Smith (especially with Byrant off the board), then Appel could be staring at a 4.5 million slot at best. 

1985
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Early 2013 Draft Thread
« on: June 06, 2013, 09:09:05 am »
Whitey tweets an interesting rumor.  
https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/342443520038162432

Quote
Draft is so unpredictable that it appears the 'Stros and Cubs @1-2 are in quandaries, and teams think the Rockies @3 go 1B Dominic Smith

Well that would upset the appel cart quite nicely.

If the Rockies go Smith at 3, then if your name isn't Appel (who I assume wouldn't make it past the Cubs at 2) you are either going to the Astros at a discount or risk losing a lot of $ as the 4th pick is just 4.5 million, 3.8 for the 5th, 3.5 for the 6th.



ETA:
Kieth Law also heard the rumor
Quote
I've heard this too. RT @r_mack: @keithlaw Any truth to rumor of Rockies taking Dominic Smith at # 3? (Peter Gammons tweeted earlier)

1986
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Birds @ Astros June 5, 2013
« on: June 05, 2013, 09:21:38 pm »
So I guess this Buxton fella is pretty good.  5 for 5 with a double and 2 triples against Quad City so far today

1987
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Birds @ Astros June 5, 2013
« on: June 05, 2013, 08:32:13 pm »
JD homerun #6 on the night

1988
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Birds @ Astros June 5, 2013
« on: June 05, 2013, 08:31:42 pm »
Altuve homerun #5 on the night

1989
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Birds @ Astros June 5, 2013
« on: June 05, 2013, 08:30:20 pm »
And Dominguez's home run chases Garcia, who has allowed 11 home runs in 40 innings. I just don't see much left in him.

He came into the game with a 3.57 ERA over 6 starts.  Left with a 4.70 ERA over 7 starts

1990
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2013
« on: June 05, 2013, 07:59:51 pm »
Interesting, now with Singleton in the lineup, Springer is leading off

1991
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Position Summary - Middle Infield
« on: June 05, 2013, 05:54:51 pm »
I know you did May but Jose Martinez is back with the hooks.  Just a mere 10 for 14 to start his year

1993
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Early 2013 Draft Thread
« on: June 05, 2013, 04:13:11 pm »
One day out, call your shot: Who will be the pick?

I'm sticking with Gray.

One thing I like about Bryant is that he didn't have a whole lot of help around him, where Moran's team was stacked.  I would pick Bryant, but I think they go pitcher and take Gray (ETA: at a discount, ~5.5)

ETA2:  And while I'm wildly speculating, Manaea in the 2nd and Cavan Biggio in the 3rd

1994
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Early 2013 Draft Thread
« on: June 05, 2013, 10:04:03 am »
I realize your example was just an example, but it carries a lot of risk.  What if Stewart was unavailable?  I mean, if he was really their target, just grab him with the 1-1?

Likely just to much risk in taking Stewart 1-1.   He has the potential to be better then Appel or Gray, but also can blow out his arm in his 3-5 year climb to the majors.  Moran is a pretty safe choice with a pretty high floor.

Last year the Stros had 2 guys that they didn't sign because they didn't have enough money(Virant and Hinojosa).  There is just no way there won't be some guys available.  Maybe not as high of a prospect as a Stewart, McCullers, etc.  but there'll be plenty of 2nd to 5th round HS talent who choose a 4 year scholarship (worth a couple hundred thousand in itself) and the hope to improve their draft position out of college.

Now that is not to say that if you truely think say Appel is better than the other 4 that you sign Moran for less.  It only means that if you feel the all 5 (or 4 or 3 or 2)  have equal talent and value, then you take the one that gives you more flexibility.






1995
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Early 2013 Draft Thread
« on: June 05, 2013, 09:12:13 am »
I realize that they said they didn't have their choice until the end last year, and Luhnow is saying the same this year, but it is hard for me to imagine that it is actually true.  It does create a solid negotiating position though.  

I'm sure they have favorites.  And even though everyone keeps saying there is no guys that will fall due to signability, I think that just can't be known yet.  

For example:
Lets say Stewart decides tomorrow that 5 million is what it will take to give up his dreams of playing football and the Astros take Moran. It's likely that Gray, Appel and Bryant are the next 3 off the board.  And now no one can swing Stweart his 5 million.  But if Moran agrees to 4.8 million then the Stros would have that 5 million at 41.

And if the Stros pull off a Moran/Stewart combo, they win big time


1996
The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Early 2013 Draft Thread
« on: June 05, 2013, 08:32:39 am »
I think these guys have no clue what the Astros are going to do and I like that.

I don't think the Astros know who they are going to get yet.  From what Mayo said in a pod cast, that I won't mention I listened to, the Astros did last day bonus conversations last year.  In his opinion, it limits a players ability to take the offer to a different team and drive up the price.  So it's likely that the 5 players the Stros are looking at 1-1 are all still a possibility.


1997
Talk Zone / Fields activated, Edgar Gonzalez to the DL
« on: May 31, 2013, 05:59:24 pm »
No way to catch Miami with moves like this one

1998
Talk Zone / Re: Good day for the organization
« on: May 31, 2013, 11:42:22 am »
Not that winning is everything in the minors but pulled this off of what the heck bobby:
Quote
Oklahoma City has won 3 in a row, Corpus Christi 4, Quad Cities 5 and Lancaster a whopping 9 in a row, thank you very much!!!

1999
Talk Zone / Re: Good day for the organization
« on: May 31, 2013, 04:53:13 am »
Good times keep rolling.  Another organizational sweep day (4 for 4).  (yesterday was 4 out of 5).  Singleton showing why he's the number one prospect with his second game with a HR. 

Good times role on.  Another organizational sweep day (4 for 4).  Springer hit his 16th.  Preston Tucker is red hot over his last 10 games (553/612/974, 21 RBIs and 16 runs).  Wojciechowski had another good start.


2000
Game Zone 2013 Archive / Re: Astros @ Rox May 30, 2013
« on: May 30, 2013, 10:07:20 pm »
If you like it, rock on. For me any chicken on any pizza does not work. Which is sort of odd because I like any and all variations of chicken and rice that has a tomato base - Cuban, Italian, whatever else.

The problem with chicken usually is if they just put the chicken on the top it dries out and is nasty.  Only way it is good is if it gets buried, and cut up small enough.

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