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« on: February 20, 2009, 08:59:46 am »
I've probably put way too much thought into this, but at least I kept it to the main six categories...
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
I don't know if I thought it was the best, but it's gotten the most hype, and it really is a great film. I'm still peeved that The Dark Knight didn't land a nomination, as I felt it was much, much better than either Button or The Reader, the former of which I actually did like a lot. Revolutionary Road and Doubt both could have been nominated, in my opinion, too. Overall I'd call it a great year for very good movies, and I'm interested to see how some of these titles are regarded a decade from now.
Actor
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
Prediction: Rourke
This is almost certainly a slam dunk, but again I think a strong case could be made for Langella or Penn, both of whom were very, very good. Pitt wasn't bad, but like Jaime Foxx in Ray, I think he benefitted from the unusual circumstances of the role more than he stood out for just his overall performance. I never saw The Visitor.
Actress
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - The Reader
Prediction: Winslet
I'm pulling this one out of you-know-where, as nothing in this category stands out to me as an obvious choice. Hathaway was the best part of Rachel Getting Married, and I could see her winning. Streep was better in Doubt, I thought, than she was in The Devil Wears Prada, but will she get it twice in a three or four year span? Jolie was Jolie - I didn't think there was anything special about the performance. And I didn't see Frozen River (nor does Melissa Leo strike me as someone whose work I know). So that leaves Kate, who seems to get nominated every year, yet never wins. I maintain that she was twice as good in Revolutionary Road as she was in this film -- or maybe I just say that because I think it was twice as good a film -- but I also admit that I have a bias toward her. So... I'm likely going to be wrong.
Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road
Prediction: Ledger
Michael Shannon pulls out one of those "nominated despite five minutes of screen time" nominations. Meh. Everyone else was really good (Brolin) to great (Hoffman), but of course Ledger has this one sewn up. I halfway expect to see someone accept on his behalf and Ledger to emerge halfway through the speech in full Joker get-up, cackling about the elaborate ruse he pulled on the public, as he announces pre-production on Batman 3.
Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Prediction: Henson
I love Amy Adams, I loved seeing Tomei's cans, and I thought Cruz was hot [/i](thought not as good, I didn't think as castmate Scarlett Johansson or that other brunette chick that was oddly appealing in Barcelona, but flat-out stunning in Frost/Nixon), but... this is one of those categories that often surprises. I flipped a coin and chose Henson over Davis, who was probably better.
Director
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant - Milk
Stephen Daldry - The Reader
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Prediction: Boyle
The vision Boyle brought to this film is what made it great. I don't think this one is close.