With the college season getting underway there's been renewed speculation about who the Astros will take for their 2nd consecutive #1/1 pick (Appel? Meadows? Frazier? Manaea?). Then last night I chanced to look up Harold Baines in my Bill James Abstract. James used that entry to look at the career value of #1 overall picks from 1965-1990. It was a bit surprising how few genuine "stars" came out of that group: just Griffey, Strawberry, Harold Baines, and Rick Monday. A lot of the best 1/1s have been drafted since 1990.
Here's bb-ref's list of #1s.And here's my little All-1/1 Team, since I had nothing better to do and for some reason wasn't tired:
C Joe Mauer He's had some injury-shortened years, but has already caught more seasons than BJ Surhoff, and is an amazing hitter.
1B Adrian Gonzalez No competition here, Baines and Ron Blomberg were both drafted as 1B but ended up mainly as DHs, and no other 1/1s made much impact at 1B. He's had 7 full seasons and they've all been great, plus 3 Gold Gloves.
2B Ummm... Jeff King? He seems to have played the most games at 2B of any #1, just 121. Tim Foli played 102 games at 2B, had a 16-year career, and Baseball Reference seems to think his defense at SS was great. Foli wins by default.
3B Chipper Jones King, Surhoff, Nevin, Bob Horner all played some 3B too, but it's clearly Larry Wayne here.
SS Alex Rodriguez If A-Rod is indeed finished, he will have played 110 more games at SS in his career than 3B. Shawon Dunston played SS longer. Several guys drafted as SS ended up elsewhere: Surhoff, King, Chipper, Justin Upton
LF Josh Hamilton I guess Jeff Burroughs won an MVP and was a pretty good hitter too. Pat Burrell could hit, too.
CF Ken Griffey Jr. Rick Monday, Darin Erstad were also pretty good in their vastly different ways.
RF Darryl Strawberry a ROY and 8 All-Star teams in his 20's, not bad. Then came the cliff. Maybe Upton or Harper will end up being better?
DH Harold Baines Though Blomberg will always be first chronologically.
SP Andy Benes I know, "Huh?" Not exactly a stud, but he hung around for 14 years, had a 155-139 career record and a 3.97 ERA. Ben McDonald was better, but for a much shorter time. Floyd Bannister, Mike Moore, Tim Belcher... Strasburg and Price will probably have better careers than all these guys, but who knows?
All in all, there've been some awful, horrible picks. I mean, Phil Nevin looks like a stroke of genius compared to the likes of Bryan Bullington, Danny Goodwin, Steve Chilcott, and of course Matt F&%$in' Bush. But it does appear that the "miss" rate has gotten a lot smaller in recent years, and the hits have been pretty big. Clearly, position players far outweigh the pitchers in star power. Maybe the Astros were on to something, not taking Appel...