Messages

1

Talk Zone / Re: The case for doing nothing at the trade line - or not

« on: July 07, 2016, 04:12:38 pm »

FWIW, I wrote the post thinking I had a point -- stand pat, don't trade prospects.

I started running through the scenarios in my head (in writing).

Realized that trading for Lucroy, Myers or Archer would make sense.

That's it. Not preaching. Just a stream of conscious that really proved that I was more conflicted than clear.

I gave your first note the benefit of the doubt. Because, my post did turn into an unresolved mess.

But you couldn't let that go.

You see it as preachy. I see it as talking baseball about a team I'm more than invested in. Trying to understand the layers  that the minor leagues present. Can't do that in any other sport. That's why its so interesting.

Seems better than "Cargo sucks. Trade him for Mike Trout." Apparently not.

2

Talk Zone / Re: The case for doing nothing at the trade line - or not

« on: July 07, 2016, 12:14:44 pm »

Jim,

I was thinking out loud on an Astros fan site.

Apparently ONLY you are allowed to do that.

I've posted here twice in three years. Both times you have shown your ass.

If I wanted a podium, I would post daily (look in the mirror).

So, as always, you have done a good job in culling the herd.

Love internet message board bullies. You make it so much fun to be a diehard Astro fan.

Lovingly yours.

3

Talk Zone / Re: The case for doing nothing at the trade line - or not

« on: July 07, 2016, 09:13:11 am »

Jim, I think it says "I'm conflicted".

4

Talk Zone / The case for doing nothing at the trade line - or not

« on: July 06, 2016, 12:42:58 pm »

I don't want to turn this into a 'In Luhnow We Trust' conversation.  Either you do or you don't.

I think there is a case to be made for doing nothing. But then, there is also a case to be made for doing something.

The team is built around a three man core: Altuve,  Correa, Springer. Preserving that core is critical to both immediate and long term success.
The team is getting key contributions from 3 guys who are all unrestricted free agents at end of the season: Rasmus, Valbuena and Gomez.
How replaceable are they through farm system without degrading roster talent? Very. And not at all.

First, it should be noted that Rasmus would likely be willing to sign a two-year extension to stay in Houston. He's streaky as hell and not particularly good against LH pitching, but he is also a 80/25/80 hitter who is plus glove and plus locker room. He's likely a 2 for $30 million deal.
Last year at this time I imagined him to be expendable because of Preston Tucker. But PTuck isn't half the outfielder Colby is, and despite a sweet swing, struggled with the bat early this season.  Other than Tucker Luke Aplin or possibly Teoscar Hernandez may be ready next Spring. But, Aplin is a poor man's Jake Mrasnick, and that's not exactly an upgrade over Rasmus, while Hernandez was almost written out of the prospect puzzle before this season wrote him back in. 

Astros could venture into OF trade market for a Jay Bruce or more interestingly a Will Myers, maybe even oft injured but dynamic Yankee outfielder in Ellsbury or Gardner. For all of that, I would roll the dice with Colby and Tucker. We know that little Tucker is still two years or so away. But one of the Tucker boys eventually holds down the LF spot.

In the meantime, Colby could easily slide to CF at the end of this year when Gomez walks (no way can the Astros justify paying GoGo given his limited on field production). If Jake could hit even a little bit, he would be a CF for the next 5 years. But he can't, so a CF platoon of Colby and Jake seems reasonable for the foreseeable future.

I have even less interest in upgrading 3B outside of our system. Not sure if Moran makes it, but feel very confident that Bregman will. With Marwin around, we rely on him to balance the ups and downs of a younger player.

1B is its own challenge. AJ shows huge pop, but at the moment, MLB off speed stuff seems to be his undoing.  His strikeout ratio makes him hard to keep up while we are battling for a division title (Rangers pitching is going to catch up with them). Singleton is struggling to achieve AAAA goodness. That said, both Tyler White and Matt Duffy are still too young to write off (as is Jon, but I've written him off anyway). Again, I have some trade interest in Wil Myers. He can certainly play 1B this season if needed and then move to the outfield next year pushing either Rasmus or Springer into CF.

The C position seems to be drawing interest. We likely lose Castro in the offseason. Gattis is better than expected defensively, but he continues to struggle at the plate. There is nothing at the top of the farm system with a proven productive bat, not Stassi, not Pena. Would love to still have Nottingham to be able to plug in next season, but nope. Lucroy would be a HUGE upgrade over our current tandem. Norris would likely be a better Gattis. Can we win with Gattis/Castro? I think so. Would Lucroy make the lineup significantly more dangerous? Absolutely.  But at what cost?

I would love for the Astros to feature another big arm pitcher in the front five. Michael Feliz comes to mind. Chris Devenski hits 94 MPH on the gun as well. Down south we have a hard thrower in Musgrove on the cusp, with softer throwing Rogers seemingly more major league ready. At least another year away is Frances Marte.  That's five good young arms for at most two open spots in the Astro rotation next season. Of course, none of those guys have the proven track record of a HEALTHY Sonny Gray or a HEALTHY Tyson Ross. But neither of those guys are healthy and both of their teams want GoGo like returns in the form of prospects. The only guy I trade the farm system for is Chris Archer, and he is either hurting or in the midst of just a nightmarish year that is inexplicable.

The bullpen needs a lefty specialist to supplant Ineffective Tony Sipp.  James Hoyt comes to mind. That said, we have already mortgaged the future for one set up man in Ken Giles, doing it twice would be grounds for immediate dismissal.

Bottom line, three targets I like: Wil Myers, Jonathon Lucroy and Chris Archer. Each guy will warrant at minimum two top 10 Astro prospects -- very possibly our Most Valuable Prospect Mr. Bregman.

Personally, I would rather sit tight. It's going to be a very tough fight for the wildcard -- with Orioles, Royals, Blue Jays, Mariners, Indians, Tigers even the Rangers all battling. That said, other than the Indians, no team has been better in the AL for the last two months than our Astros. 

In my mind three young guns may make the difference in our success this year: Reed, Hoyt and Bregman. I would rather lose with them than face the future without them. If we could get a Myers or a Lucroy without losing any of these three, might be worth doing. Otherwise, I say believe in the talent we have on hand. 

5

Talk Zone / Luhnow Trades

« on: December 10, 2015, 08:18:10 am »

1. Marco Duarte for Marwin Gonzales 
2.  Mark Melancon for Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland
3. Quintero and Bourgeois for Toney and Chapman
4.  Ruggiano for Morales
5. Carlos Lee for Matt Dominguez and Rob Rasmussen
6. Happ, Lyon and Carpenter  for Dave Rollins, Kevin Comer, Joe Musgrave, Asher Wojciechowksi and Carlos Perez
7. Brett Myers for Heidenreich, Walters and Devenski
8. Wandy Rodriguez for Colton Cain, Robby Grossman and Rudy Owens
9. Chris Johnson for Bobby Borchering and Marc Krauss
10. Ben Francisco for Theron Geith
11. Casey for Tyler Greene
12. Steve Pearce for cash
13. Lopez and Monson  for Alex White and Gillingham
14.  Rob Rasmussen for John Ely
15. Lowrie and Rodriguez for Carter, Stassi and Peacock
16. Knasnicka for Sanudo 
17. Goebbert for Blackley
18.  Chris Wallace for Eric Berger
19. Martinez for Basford
20. Signing bonus slot for Ronald Torreyes
21. Veras for Danry Vazquez
22. Norris for Hader, Hoes and 1st round pick
23. Justin Maxwell for Kyle Smith
24.  Wesley Wright for cash
25. Travis Blackley for cash
26.  Cash for Matt Pagnozzi
27. Jordan Lyles for Dexter Fowler and Brandon Barnes
28. Lucas Harrell for cash
29. Raul Valdes for a PTB
30. Cosart and Kiki Hernandez and Waites for Moran, Mrasnick and Martes and Comp Pick
31. Dexter Fowler for Valbuena and Straily ...
32. Corporan for Bostick
33. Dan Johnson for player to be named.
34. Chris Lee to Baltimore for other considerations.
35. Hader, Houser, Phillips and Santana for Gomez and Fiers.
36. Tropeano and Perez for Conger. 
37. Villar for Cy Snead.
38. Lowrie for McCurry.
39. Valdes to Toronto for cash.
40. Garcia to Baltimore for cash.
41. Foltynewicz, Thurman and Ruiz for Gattis and Hoyt.
42. Velasquez, Eshelman, Fisher and Olberholzer for Giles.

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Talk Zone / Re: Let the Stove be Heated

« on: November 19, 2015, 07:17:53 pm »

Somehow it feels like a trade made to free up spots on the 40 more than it was to add talent to the system. Or put better, Snead may be less valuable than the 40 man roster spot we freed up.

As a total homer, I have to admit that it seems like limited return on a young middle infielder with proven bat and great legs. I'm even afraid of Grossman coming back to be a solid #4 outfielder for some MLB team.

But again 40 man for Houston is harder to make than some major league rosters.

7

Talk Zone / Starting Line-Up

« on: October 08, 2015, 04:05:06 pm »

Per Berman:

Altuve  (4)
Springer (9)
Correa (6)
Rasmus (7)
Gattis (DH)
Valbuena (5)
Carter (3)
Castro (2)
Mrasnick (

8

Talk Zone / The 25-man playoff roster

« on: October 04, 2015, 07:22:27 pm »

I think this is still a thing. Granted, it may only be for one game, but I think it speaks to Astro longer term plans.

C  (2) Castro/Conger
1b (1) Carter
2b (1) Valbuena
ss (1) Correa
3b (2) Valbuena/Lowrie
UT (1) Gonzales
DH (1) Gattis
OF (4) Springer, Rasmus, Mrasnick, Gomez

SP (5) Kuechel, McHugh, McCullers, Fiers, Kazmir
RP (7) Gregerson, Harris, Sipp, Neshek, Qualls, Perez, Thatcher

If Gomez can't go, then Tucker picks up his spot.
Can't find a role for Velasquez, but he might be there in front of Thatcher.

I think the Astros are committed to Carter's hot streak and will ride him out at 1B.  I would expect Gonzales to get the start in LF against the Yankees provided his hand his well enough to be able to swing the bat against Tanaka. If not, assuming Gomez is still not ready, Mrasnick will hit in the 9 hole.

Not sure who earns the start at 3B. Jed isn't hitting much right now and comes off a multi-K game. Valbuena has that HR potential, which Lowrie has 5 playoff experiences to draw from.

It's not an easy roster to make out, nor an obvious line-up card, but this how I think we stack up against the Yankees on Monday.

2b Altuve
RF Springer
SS Correa
DH Gattis
CF Rasmus
3b Valbuena
1b Carter
C Castro
LF Mrasnick
P Keuchel

9

Talk Zone / Re: A season to build on

« on: October 01, 2015, 07:48:20 am »

A little less after last night.

10

Talk Zone / A season to build on

« on: September 30, 2015, 12:47:09 pm »

Hate September. Love 2015.  Love Jeff Luhnow. Question some trade deadline and roster decisions.  The progression has been amazing. What's next is fascinating.

Catcher: Hardest decision is in the offseason will be retain Jason Castro. Had a very good defensive season. I fear that his offensive stats are now his new normal. Don't think he has huge value on the open market, but do think he will likely command $3-$5 million for 3 years. We can afford it. The question will be whether we should pay it. For me Hank Conger is far too limited defensively. I questioned the Tropeano trade. I still do. Particularly with Stassi seasoned at AAA and Perez at AA being reputed as best defensive cather in the organization. Plus, the AFL experiment of moving Tyler White behind home plate.  Unlike in Middle Infield positions, farm system seems to be good, not great at this spot,  All signs point to keeping him in my view, and hopefully in rotation with Stassi provided that Max can win the spot in training camp.

First Base:  How I hate Chris Carter the baseball player. How the front office loves him. He hit 25 dingers in a crap season. I suspect that there will be rationale that he will hit 40 in a good one.  Then the strange enigmatic case of Jon Singleton, from super prospect to super flop in just over a season.  Absolutely was outplayed by Tyler White and by Matt Duffy at AAA. Both of whom would appear to be ready for their shot, but neither given much of a chance to contribute down the stretch. And then of course AA phenom AJ Reed. Plus Valbuena and Gonzales both capable of playing the spot allowing for a June call up for young Mr. Reed.  Typically too many options means no true star, but in this case, I think it is lots of options to find a star ... or simply settle into Carter's 30 HR, .200 batting average.  Personally, I would love to see a guy who can at least produce at a .250 clip while still providing 25 HRS and 85+ RBIs .  This will likely be the final battle of training camp and its outcome likely marks the success or failure of 2016.

Second Base: Jose Altuve backed by Marwin and potentially even Jon Villar who has been far better this season than last.  Nolan Fontana has to factor somewhat into the mix in training camp fighting for back up spot ... particularly if the Astros commit to Gonzales as a regular at 3B.

Shortstop: For the next 10 years the answer will be Correa. Again, MarGo and Villar and Fontana all could fill role in utility need.

Third Base:  Like first, an interesting opportunity. Jed was hurt too much of the season to know whether he can be that .265, 15HR, 75 RBI corner infielder. Loved Valbuena's glove, not so much the all or nothing home plate appearances. Wouldn't be a shock to see the Astros stay with these two, but Matt Duffy can certainly play the corner, as can MarGo. And Collin Moran had a very nice second half of the year at AA.  Might be ready to compete for the job.

Right Field: George just gonna be George. Need 162 healthy games, or at least 150+. 
Center Field: For next year it has to be Carlos Gomez. Astros traded far too much talent to give up on him after a bad second half with us. Players have down years and he certainly had one. But he hasn't lost his wheels and his bat speed isn't down. He plays hard and adds another Plus glove to the outfield.
Left Field: I had hoped that Preston Tucker would lock the position up, but his playing time has decreased and his ABs have become less productive I think caused by lack of consistent playing time. He has to have a shot, but he will be pressed by both Jake Mrasnick who is just a dynamic force in the outfield, MarGo who swings an always improving bat, and I think Andrew Aplin, a guy that might be the best defended of a great bunch of defenders. DatDude21 had a very good second half at AAA. I suspect his play was part of the reason that Luhnow was willing to deal Maverick.

Rotation: Keuchel, McHugh and McCullers have to be inked onto the card. In my view Kazmir became a whole lot more affordable and equally less desirable with his performance in Houston. Feldman has one more costly year on his contract. Appel, Devenski and Velasquez all should be in the mix, as should Michael Feliz if the club doesn't convert him to a closer.   I think that the baseball world will buzz for the Astros to make a signature signing ... and if they are willing to pay $150 to a SP for 5 years, David Price would be the guy that you would pay that money for. Problem is that price may well get $200 million, and I don't think the Astros are the team to eat that type of a contract whereas Boston and New York will be desperate to have him in their uniform. I would bet that the Astros will be more willing to spend big money on a big armed closer then on a starter with Velasquez and Appel so close to being ready an Kuechel and McCullers looking like a 1/2 combination that we can live with for years. Somehow I think they get a midrange deal done with Kazmir and hope that his second half challenges go away allowing the 4 young guys to battle it out for the #5 slot (Velasquez, Appel, Devenski, Feliz).

Bullpen: Who the heck knows? Harris pitched out of his mind. Gregerson gave us everything we could have hoped for. Neshek until September was nails. Sipp remained largely effective in spot situations. Qualls is gonna be Qualls. In short, one power armed closer at the back end pushing Gregerson to the 8th and Neshek/Harris to the 7th and we are likely looking very complete. Not sure how stupid the new Padre GM will be about Kimbrell. He would be ideal, even if the asking price is Appel and anyone in the farm system other than Bregman and Reed.  Regardless, I suspect Jeff will tinker around at the back end and possibly to find a better second lefty than Perez and Thatcher.

DH: I like Evan Gattis. Take away the first month of the season and he hits .260 with 30 HRs and 90 RBIs. Plus he appears to be great in the clubhouse. Tyler White will give him a run for his money in Spring Training, and then of course there is Chris Carter. I know that some don't think he is the guy. I do. 

Biggest Potential Surprise:  Bregman makes the leap to the bigs and takes on the 3B role. He certainly is advanced as a hitter, would significantly upgrade the position defensively, and could become another high on base percentage, low strikeout hitter that team needs to avoid those ugly 10k, 7 RISP games that this season has produced.

Biggest Offseason Need: Closer to fortify the rest of the pen moving Gregerson and crew all up an inning.

Projected 2016 Starting Line-up

Gomez (CF)
Altuve (2b)
Springer (RF)
Correa (SS)
Gattis (DH)
Reed (1B) post June 1
Lowrie (3B)
Gonzales (LF)
Castro/Stassi (C)

SP: Keuchel, McCullers, Kazmir, McHugh, Velasquez
BP: New closer (Feliz?), new LHP,

Super excited already about next season. Other than Lowrie and Castro, I don't think there is an everyday player in the line-up, including Altuve, who doesn't have a bit of room for growth. A 2013 Carlos Gomez legitimizes the team as a true World Series contender provided that pitching holds up. And if the Astros are willing to throw money at a David Price ... well ... just would be excited as hell.

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Talk Zone / Re: This is why I hate travel teams/elite little league tournament teams

« on: September 11, 2015, 12:09:36 pm »

I spent many many summer weekends with both of my boys playing travel ball. One in baseball began travel ball at 10, the other in soccer at 8.  Neither boy ever had an iota of a chance of becoming a pro. That was never in either parents playbook. By the time they were both sophomores in HS, neither boy had a chance to play at a P5 or G5 school (NAIA, sure).

Both boys played on state championship high school teams. Both contributed. Neither starred.

So why did we play 60 games a year for 8-10 years with two kids who were clearly not gifted athletes?

One, because I believe that idle time for teenage boys produces nothing of value.
Because the kids that they associated with were all dedicated to both sport and academic achievement ... my experience was that parents of travel kids pushed their boys to excel in both areas.
Three, because my boys and I have lifetime memories of goofy road trips, bad motels, greasy food ... and all the other peripheral stuff that just can't be duplicated outside of these 20 road trips each summer.
Four, because my boys learned that to compete against the best, one had to prepare the best, pay attention to detail, outwork your competition. I think a valuable lesson for life.
Five, because my boys learned that it takes more than stars to win games. My kids were the ultimate team players. Glue for the team, on the bench or in the field.
Six, because my boys learned how not to behave as parents by watching the stupidity in the stands and through try-outs.
Seven, because my boys learned that you might not always like or agree with your employer (coach), but you have to respect them.
Eight, because my boys learned that their father and mother loved them to distraction. We didn't say 'we will do anything for you'. We did anything for them. I'm incredibly proud of the time I invested in my kids. Lost friends. Lost my tennis and golf games. Found the love of my life ... being a dad.
Nine, because there is nothing wrong with dreaming big, even if the ultimate result is never quite reached.
Ten, despite the parental insanity, the overreaching antics, the cussing and swearing of 'Christian' parents, coaching tirades, bench time, loss of positions, loss of status ... my two boys emerged from travel and high school sports as two wonderful young men.

I don't credit sport, or travel sport, for all of that which I listed above. But I would never discourage a young dad from following my steps. I might tell him to insist on a pitch count and a number of days rest between sports ... but other than that ... play ball.

12

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Rant

« on: July 31, 2015, 07:51:22 am »

The OP was put there before the trade and I will stand by it now. I all too vividly recall that the way we got to 55 win seasons was by emptying the talent in the farm system and then being forced to overpay aged veterans. I hate the geometry of the trade. It steals playing time from Preston Tucker who has already proven to be a remarkably adaptable bat. If Mrasnick stays, it moves him to LF, where his ability to go get it is largely wasted. If Jake goes today to SD it messes with the chemistry in the clubhouse and once again removes a significant support piece from Springer's team.  It didn't address the teams fundamental flaw ... 1b. And the logjam now for playing time at 1B and more importantly at DH just gets worse. Gattis, in my view, needs to be in the batting order every night. But then, what of Preston Tucker? Who can argue with Jeff's success. He has turned the ship around. But that doesn't mean that I have to agree with every deal he makes. I had grown very comfortable with the rebuild of the team through the farm system. To me Brett Phillips was the last big piece to come up and make an impact for the team for years. I hate seeing an Elite talent go ... particularly when I would bet $100 to $1 that Gomez will not be here in 2018 when Phillips is potentially reaching his major league prime.  History. Lessons. All of that said, I will continue to enjoy the unexpected ride of 2015. My wife may divorce me for never turning off a game, but its truly worth every dirty look I get to stay up late and watch Castro go yard.

13

Talk Zone / Trade Rant

« on: July 30, 2015, 07:59:38 am »

Would have loved to have had Cole Hamels. Disappointed he chose not to come to H-town. That can only be a reflection of how players around the league felt about the Sabrematician approach our franchise takes to the game. Or he is a friend of Bud Norris. Either way, his loss. The Rangers with a healthy Yu Darvish and a healthy Cole Hamels have a powerful top two for next year. That said, baseball is a funny game. Injuries always seem to scuttle the best played plans. In this case, I certainly hope so.  But that isn't the RANT.

Astros OF for next season, without trades, likely is Springer, Mrasnick and Tucker. Unless Domingo Santana and his 320 batting average can force his way into the conversation. Or #2 prospect Brett Phillips can avoid the trade deadline and become a part of the mix. Or even if Andrew Aplin's bat continues its recent resurgence. That's a six man rotation that could be special. And it wholly discounts guys like Hoes, Presley and Grossman ... any of which has some value at the major league level.  Plus the chemistry that Springer and Mrasnick provide in the clubhouse can't be overlooked. I can get as annoyed with Jake's offense as the next guy, but he absolutely takes runs off the opponents scoreboard with his defense. Given the bats on either side of him, a Jake Mrasnick hitting .250 and playing stellar defense is more than good enough.

But the Astros appear to be showing interest in Upton, Bruce and Gomez. I get the marquee value. I don't get the infatuation. Upton is more of what we have too  much of. Big power, good speed, inconsistent ball contact and plenty of Ks. Gomez is hitting a robust .260, with less power and nowhere near the speed impact he has had the past two seasons. I don't think the Mets fail him on the physical for no good reason -- Flores and Wheeler are largely spare parts -- say Villar, Straily and Oberholtzer and that is more than an equivalent value trade.

The clear hole in the line-up is at 1b now that Lowrie will take over 3b with a bit of support from MarGo.  But I'm not convinced that the answer to the position isn't already in the organization. And I'm not talking Jon "I can't button this damn jersey" Singleton. AJ Reed is a big time advanced bat. He is doing in AA what Correa did before him (accelerating is A+ stats in AA ball).

So why panic now? Why reach for a Jay Bruce or an Adam Lind?

Luhnow and Sig have done a masterful job at building the bats for the Astros. Maybe not so much the pitching (though McCullers and Velasquez look to be top of the rotation starters). 

I'm just not in favor of moving much if any of the young talent for help in the outfield. And while I think David Price would be amazing for us down the stretch, again, I question dismantling the farm system for a guy we likely only have for 2 months.

No doubt we should be aggressive in attempting to sign Price over the winter. And keeping Kazmir seems a realistic decision if Price proves unavailable/affordable to us.

A trade for Cashner and Kimbrel has some allure. But spare me the need for an outfield bat.  We can and are winning with what we have. 

As for what to do with Grossman, Villar, Presley, Hoes, Buchanan ... even Carter, Singleton and Valbuena ... it would be nice to imagine that we could package a bunch of our AAAA guys up to return a reasonable investment.  Those trades happen all the time in fan land. Just not sure the real world will be as forgiving.

14

Game Zone 2015 Archive / Re: stRangers @ Astros July 17, 2015

« on: July 17, 2015, 07:53:05 pm »

Why is Evan Gattis not a possibility at 1b?

15

Game Zone 2015 Archive / Re: stRangers @ Astros July 17, 2015

« on: July 17, 2015, 07:33:00 pm »

I'm confused. Preston Tucker was the only guy hitting the ball consistently before the break and he sits, but Chris Carter who hasn't hit in 4 months starts?