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General Discussion => Talk Zone => Topic started by: NeilT on May 01, 2011, 08:49:52 am
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You know what defines this team? Its play is not consistently horrible, but if you give this team long enough, it will beat itself. Our 2011 Astros give the lie to the theory that 1 run losses are randomly distributed. Apparently they're not.
Three things good about the team: Wallace. Towles. Myers. Maybe Towles doesn't stay good, but his April gives him a pass for awhile.
Three things inconsistent. Bourn. Pence. Wandy. I know, Bourn is the best defensive centerfielder of our time, but he's also batting leadoff, and I can't convince myself that he's a strong leadoff. He's a good base runner who doesn't get on base enough. Right now I think Bourn is the reason the Tank Commander started batting pitchers 8th. Pence is not as horrible as all that, but he is horribly erratic. Overall, he's a corner outfielder with pretty good offense and erratic defense, and on a winning team would be the source of fond amusement. Wandy is bipolar. There is a Good Wandy and a Bad Wandy.
Three things I'd rather not see again in this lifetime. Lee. Lyon. The bullpen. Lee is done: Play Bourgeois for awhile. Keep The Vulture off the mound in the 9th. My favorite Astros teams were as often as not defined by the bullpen. So is this team.
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You're wrong about Bourn. Although you acknowledged his stellar defense, his OBP of .357 is better than his career number. I wouldn't have put him in the inconsistent category.
You didn't mention Q, whose offense has been good while his defense and ability to throw out baserunners has fallen off somewhat. I think that part of Q's throwing problem is his thought that he can throw on his knees, which is very hard to do. Try it sometimes.
You were very, very kind to Pence with a characterization of erratic defense. His defense is downright poor.
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I'd like to begin with some notes on what I see as positives. I think Bourn is performing pretty well as a leadoff hitter. His OBP is .357, against a league average of .320 and a baseline need from a leadoff hitter of .340. Last year his OBP was .341, the year before that .354. I think that's adequate, and apart from the stolen bases he's an adequate baserunner as well. He has gone from a .220 hitter that most had given up on to significantly more than that and I'm incredibly happy that he's an Astro.
Brett Wallace is having a monster April. We're all excited about Brett Wallace at 1B.
Towles and Q are hitting and fielding and if you add them all together that's a great backstop component any team would envy. So far.
Bud Norris is in serious danger of turning the corner. Walks are down, WHIP is down, Ks are up. His 3.86 ERA is second among the starters.
Brett Myers' numbers are down a shade from last year but he's still the stud bulldog on the staff.
Pence hits some.
Now, the other side of the coin.
.280/25/85. FoTF. Take a look at this list of comparables: Corey Hart. Bob Cerv. Aubrey Huff. Rondell White. It's like looking at your team and your Best Player, your Star, your Leader is Bob Cerv or Aubrey Huff. This is where this team is. It's Aubrey Huff, running around with his tongue hanging out of his mouth leading no one into anything. Over the last two weeks, this middle-of-the-road guy has cost the team as many wins as he's had a hand in delivering. He's never going to be any more than he is now, .280/25/85 and that would be fine if he wasn't such a boneheaded loose cannon that he ran or bumbled his team out of wins. It's his heroic downside that keeps his upside from mattering.
Carlos Lee is done. Dead man walking. Making a whole lot of money for two more seasons of hope and little else.
History is not full of tales about successful nibbling closers.
The starting pitching has failed this team so far. Getting 6.1 IP from #1 and #2 is not good, but getting 5.1 IP from the rest of the staff is killing this team. The starters were supposed to be the strength, and the relievers were tuning up for next year, hoping to get through this year and answer some questions. Instead, this situation is overtaxing a weakness and unless the starters get stronger, this could be a destructive year for the relievers rather than one where they come together. They're overworked already; maybe Figueroa's rubber arm can take some of the damage until Lopez comes back and they can get situated again.
Hall, Johnson and Lee all have OPS below .595 in three very important lineup positions. If you could turn two of these into .750 OPS, you'd have a decent team. I think CJ is kinda snakebit, seeing an evening out of last season's luck but he hits the ball hard and that is a good sign. He'll come around.
Every time I'm ready to kick Hall to the curb, he does something that makes me think he's snapping out of it and will consistently produce. This is maddening and the equivalent of fool's gold. Or not. Maddening.
The majority of every teams' losses can be attributed to a round-robin spreading of the blame. Rarely are players who are consistently costing a team its wins allowed to keep on giving away games, unless that team is so thin that replacements aren't available. The Astros are in many ways this sort of team. The relief corps doesn't have a lot of alternatives to turn to. Pence consistently puts his team in harm's way as often as he rescues it, and the same can be said of Lyon. Lee appears incapable of delivering in the RBI situations he is hired to deliver in. The starting pitching is underperforming. Unless these problems are fixed, this team won't get better.
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Without looking at the standings, can you guess which two teams came out of April with worse records than us?
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I only saw one, and I never would have guessed that one. There was another one that I did guess, but they have the same record.
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I only saw one, and I never would have guessed that one. There was another one that I did guess, but they have the same record.
I see two, but whatever. The worst team in the majors? Really? Did anyone see that coming?
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They've got some bad shit going on, holmes.
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Are we talking about the Twins or the White Sox?
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Are we talking about the Twins or the White Sox?
Twins
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Bud Norris is in serious danger of turning the corner. Walks are down, WHIP is down, Ks are up. His 3.86 ERA is second among the starters.
Corner turned
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Corner turned
We got this in writing, right?
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Corner turned
When he starts getting to the seventh inning more often than not, then I'll be willing to say corner turned. He pitched a whale of a ballgame today, so he has it within him, but so do lots of players who just can''t consistently do that. We'll see.
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Tweet today from BudNorris20 (emphasis mine):
"Got our A Rod on the bump today. Pumped. Need to beat up on these Reds. Stros turning the corner."
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Tweet today from BudNorris20 (emphasis mine):
"Got our A Rod on the bump today. Pumped. Need to beat up on these Reds. Stros turning the corner."
Can a brother get a pronoun?
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Can a brother get a pronoun?
8'nt nuf # 4 full tweet
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Tweet today from BudNorris20 (emphasis mine):
"Got our A Rod on the bump today. Pumped. Need to beat up on these Reds. Stros turning the corner."
Maybe A Rod should be our closer. Couldn't be worse. Might be better.
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Your Astros currently have scored the same number of runs (142) as the NL East-leading Phillies, the same # as the AL Wild Card-leading Rays, and more runs than the NL West-leading Rockies (among other teams). Who would have guessed that would be the case even in this portion of a season?
...unfortunately, they have also allowed 18 more runs (176) than any other MLB team. The #29 team (White Sox) is closer to the #16 team than they are to the Astros. They've been that much worse than everybody else.