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General Discussion => Talk Zone => Topic started by: NeilT on January 13, 2006, 05:04:07 pm

Title: BB Prospectus
Post by: NeilT on January 13, 2006, 05:04:07 pm
Visits the Astros today:

The Link

Dubbing Clemens "Hamlet" makes it worth the visit.  Oh.  I guess I just blew the punchline.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: Arky Vaughan on January 13, 2006, 05:18:34 pm
Quote:

Dubbing Clemens "Hamlet" makes it worth the visit.  Oh.  I guess I just blew the punchline.



Where are the Astros going to get some more SNLVAR?
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: OldBlevins on January 13, 2006, 05:18:59 pm
Quote:

Visits the Astros today:

The Link

Dubbing Clemens "Hamlet" makes it worth the visit.  Oh.  I guess I just blew the punchline.



That's a nicely written piece. But what is a "MLB-leading 9.4 SNLVAR?"  Does that go with Hamlet's burnt-orange Hummer somehow?

Totally beside the point, I once read a story in which a parrot combined "Hamlet" and Sherlock Holmes by saying "2-2-2-B or not 2-2-2-B . . . "
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: S.P. Rodriguez on January 13, 2006, 05:19:46 pm
Quote:

Quote:

Dubbing Clemens "Hamlet" makes it worth the visit.  Oh.  I guess I just blew the punchline.



Where are the Astros going to get some more SNLVAR?



anyone willing to venture a guess what the hell SNLVAR stands for or what it represents?
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: NeilT on January 13, 2006, 05:23:08 pm
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Dubbing Clemens "Hamlet" makes it worth the visit.  Oh.  I guess I just blew the punchline.



Where are the Astros going to get some more SNLVAR?



anyone willing to venture a guess what the hell SNLVAR stands for or what it represents?



I think it had something to do with when they all had the flu last year.  Isn't that the name of that virus from Mongolia?
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: lc_db on January 13, 2006, 05:24:02 pm
Quote:

anyone willing to venture a guess what the hell SNLVAR stands for or what it represents?



Rajah and his 30 pieces of SNLVAR?
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: David in Jackson on January 13, 2006, 05:24:50 pm
I always enjoy reading BP.  Of course, they said last year, let me see if I can remember it exactly, "This isn't a contending team."

That doesn't mean they're idiots, that their methodology stinks, or that there isn't a lot worthwhile in the book.  It just means that baseball's a funny game.

I'm intrigued by the Weaver idea, though I bet we sit on our hands for Roger.

Minute Maid better for RH hitters than Coors?
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: Arky Vaughan on January 13, 2006, 05:34:41 pm
Quote:

That doesn't mean they're idiots, that their methodology stinks, or that there isn't a lot worthwhile in the book.  It just means that baseball's a funny game.




This is precisely why I don't particularly enjoy reading the Baseball Prospectus guys.  They're too absolute.  Statistics explain a lot of phenomena in baseball and are a useful tool in estimating outcomes.  Statistics don't guarantee outcomes, however.

The two most important things I've learned in working with baseball statistics are (1) every formula has to rely on certain assumptions that may or may not be true and (2) the potential for randomness, sometimes called luck, is far greater than is often recognized.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: MusicMan on January 13, 2006, 05:38:59 pm
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Dubbing Clemens "Hamlet" makes it worth the visit.  Oh.  I guess I just blew the punchline.



Where are the Astros going to get some more SNLVAR?



anyone willing to venture a guess what the hell SNLVAR stands for or what it represents?



Support-Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added vs. Replacement value.

It represents penis envy.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: Arky Vaughan on January 13, 2006, 05:39:55 pm
Quote:

Minute Maid better for RH hitters than Coors?



Probably a matter of righties' homers in home games and righties' homers in road games.  I don't have the data with me, but can check when I get home.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: Foghorn on January 13, 2006, 05:42:03 pm
Quote:

I always enjoy reading BP.  Of course, they said last year, let me see if I can remember it exactly, "This isn't a contending team."

That doesn't mean they're idiots, that their methodology stinks, or that there isn't a lot worthwhile in the book.  It just means that baseball's a funny game.

I'm intrigued by the Weaver idea, though I bet we sit on our hands for Roger.

Minute Maid better for RH hitters than Coors?



Fuck Jeff Weaver.  The COunt better not sign that shitbag, or I'll personally pipebomb MMPUS down to its foundations.  Jeff Weaver is a cock suck of the highest magnitude.  Plus he loves being on the receiving end of tea bags and bukkake.

MMPUS is not the 2nd best HR park for righties in MLB.  Using the 2002-2004 data, the following are more HR-friendly...

Wrigley, US Cellular, Coors, Kaufman, BiA.  MMPUS's RHB HR Ratio was 116.  The following had ones at 115:  BOB, Camden Yards, Great America Ballpark.  In other words, #6 overall, but just barely ahead of #9.

If 2005 data was enough to cause a shift in the data for 3 years then its probably worthless to draw conclusions from anyway.

Fuck Baseball prospectus.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: OldBlevins on January 13, 2006, 05:48:21 pm
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Dubbing Clemens "Hamlet" makes it worth the visit.  Oh.  I guess I just blew the punchline.



Where are the Astros going to get some more SNLVAR?



anyone willing to venture a guess what the hell SNLVAR stands for or what it represents?



Support-Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added vs. Replacement value.

It represents penis envy.



And Clemens had a 9.4???!!!!  Jeez!
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: NeilT on January 13, 2006, 05:57:05 pm
Well, I for one am envious.  Not embarrassingly envious, but envious.

I feel a bit sorry for Weaver with the 4.2".
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: HurricaneDavid on January 13, 2006, 06:05:45 pm
Quote:

MMPUS is not the 2nd best HR park for righties in MLB.  Using the 2002-2004 data, the following are more HR-friendly...

Wrigley, US Cellular, Coors, Kaufman, BiA.  MMPUS's RHB HR Ratio was 116.  The following had ones at 115:  BOB, Camden Yards, Great America Ballpark.  In other words, #6 overall, but just barely ahead of #9.



What does "RHB HR Ratio" MEAN exactly?  Whatever it is, it doesn't seem to jive with ESPN's "Park Factor," which I realize doesn't separate lefties and righties, but still somehow lists MMP as the SINGLE WORST stadium in the majors for HRs.

The Link
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: Limey on January 13, 2006, 06:12:21 pm
Quote:

Fuck Jeff Weaver.  The Count better not sign that shitbag, or I'll personally pipebomb MMPUS down to its foundations.  Jeff Weaver is a cock suck of the highest magnitude.  Plus he loves being on the receiving end of tea bags and bukkake.


Perhaps the most perfect Foggy dressing down of a player I've ever read.  I'm crying.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: Limey on January 13, 2006, 06:14:39 pm
Quote:

Support-Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added vs. Replacement value.

It represents penis envy.


Sounds like opportunity cost, but I'll go with penis envy.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: Limey on January 13, 2006, 06:17:05 pm
Quote:

What does "RHB HR Ratio" MEAN exactly?  Whatever it is, it doesn't seem to jive with ESPN's "Park Factor," which I realize doesn't separate lefties and righties, but still somehow lists MMP as the SINGLE WORST stadium in the majors for HRs.

The Link


It never ceases to amaze me when pudnits make such prognostications without looking at the team.  2000 = shit pitching, all-mash offense = loadsa homers.  2005 = stellar pitching, no hitting = no homers.

It's not hard.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: JimR on January 13, 2006, 06:24:32 pm
anyone who reads BP to learn about baseball is wasting his/her time. it is very entertaining though, and the writing is hilarious.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: Foghorn on January 13, 2006, 06:24:42 pm
Quote:

Quote:

MMPUS is not the 2nd best HR park for righties in MLB.  Using the 2002-2004 data, the following are more HR-friendly...

Wrigley, US Cellular, Coors, Kaufman, BiA.  MMPUS's RHB HR Ratio was 116.  The following had ones at 115:  BOB, Camden Yards, Great America Ballpark.  In other words, #6 overall, but just barely ahead of #9.



What does "RHB HR Ratio" MEAN exactly?  Whatever it is, it doesn't seem to jive with ESPN's "Park Factor," which I realize doesn't separate lefties and righties, but still somehow lists MMP as the SINGLE WORST stadium in the majors for HRs.

The Link



RHB= right handed batter
HR= Home Run

Take the # of HRs by righthanded batters in all Astros games played at MMPUS (both teams and exclude inter-league games) and divide by number of plate appearences by RHBs.  This number is X

Take the # of HRs by righthanded batters in all Astros games played away from MMPUS (both teams and exclude inter-league games) and divide by number of plate appearences by RHBs.  This number is Y.

Ratio = X/Y.

If the ball park is a neutral for RHB HRs, the ratio will be 1.00 (or 100%, or simply 100 if you drop the percent).  A ratio of 116 means HRs by RHB's are 16% more likely in Astros home games (played in MMPUS) than in Astros road games (played everywhere other than MMPUS).

This is from the Bill James baseball handbook.

Whatever you get from ESPN suck slimey donkey dicks.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: Ty in Tampa on January 13, 2006, 06:27:15 pm
Whatever you get from ESPN suck slimey donkey dicks.

With your permission, this will now be my signature.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: Foghorn on January 13, 2006, 06:29:14 pm
Quote:

anyone who reads BP to learn about baseball is wasting his/her time. it is very entertaining though, and the writing is hilarious.



I totally disagree...

...those assholes used to be about 10x funnier.  The last couple of books have failed to consistantly "bring the funny".
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: NeilT on January 13, 2006, 09:19:29 pm
Quote:

Quote:

anyone who reads BP to learn about baseball is wasting his/her time. it is very entertaining though, and the writing is hilarious.



I totally disagree...

...those assholes used to be about 10x funnier.  The last couple of books have failed to consistantly "bring the funny".



You've got to admit, the vision of Clemens holed up in his castle in Memorial, dressed in black and repeating "to pitch or not to pitch" over and over again is pretty darn funny.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: Arky Vaughan on January 14, 2006, 01:57:23 am
Quote:

It never ceases to amaze me when pudnits make such prognostications without looking at the team.  2000 = shit pitching, all-mash offense = loadsa homers.  2005 = stellar pitching, no hitting = no homers.

It's not hard.



The make-up of the team has nothing to do with it, since it compares the team's batting and pitching on the road and at home.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: Arky Vaughan on January 14, 2006, 02:20:17 am
Quote:

RHB= right handed batter
HR= Home Run

Take the # of HRs by righthanded batters in all Astros games played at MMPUS (both teams and exclude inter-league games) and divide by number of plate appearences by RHBs.  This number is X

Take the # of HRs by righthanded batters in all Astros games played away from MMPUS (both teams and exclude inter-league games) and divide by number of plate appearences by RHBs.  This number is Y.

Ratio = X/Y.

If the ball park is a neutral for RHB HRs, the ratio will be 1.00 (or 100%, or simply 100 if you drop the percent).  A ratio of 116 means HRs by RHB's are 16% more likely in Astros home games (played in MMPUS) than in Astros road games (played everywhere other than MMPUS).

This is from the Bill James baseball handbook.

Whatever you get from ESPN suck slimey donkey dicks.



These are the ratios for National League parks from 2003 to 2005, according to the Bill James Handbook 2006:
Tm    HR   LH   RH
------------------
Col  121  126  118
Phi  121  121  120
Cin  116  117  116
Ari  113  108  118
------------------
Chi  113  104  118   
Hou  112   77  133
Mil  108  101  112
LA   106  107  106
------------------
Atl   94   94   94
SF    90   82   96
StL   90   92   88
Pit   87  103   79
------------------
Was   85   99   76
Fla   84  104   78
NY    84   94   78
SD    66   78   59
The Astros and their opponents hit 112 home runs in home games for every 100 home runs they hit in road games (given the same number of at-bats).

The Astros and their opponents hit 77 home runs left-handed in home games for every 100 home runs they hit left-handed in road games (given the same number of left-handed at-bats).

The Astros and their opponents hit 133 home runs right-handed in home games for every 100 home runs they hit right-handed in road games (given the same number of right-handed at-bats).

Here is the raw data for the Astros (although I do not have the at-bats):
        ----Home-----  ----Road-----
        Hou  Opp  Tot  Hou  Opp  Tot
------------------------------------
LH HR    51   76  127   79   87  166
RH HR   205  153  358  153  120  273
------------------------------------
All HR  256  229  485  232  207  439
That is 166 lefty homers on the road to 127 at home, and 358 righty homers at home to 273 on the road. So, yes, it appears that from 2003 to 2005, Minute Maid Park has been the worst home-run park in the league for lefties and the best home-run park in the league for righties.

Nothing wrong with that.  I do not understand why people get defensive about it.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: Reuben on January 14, 2006, 02:49:50 am
Quote:

Totally beside the point, I once read a story in which a parrot combined "Hamlet" and Sherlock Holmes by saying "2-2-2-B or not 2-2-2-B . . . "


Yeah, that was one of the "Alfred Hitchcock's The Three Investigators," one of the early ones I think. That parrotism was a big part of solving the whatever. Wow, that brings me back.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: Col. Sphinx Drummond on January 14, 2006, 09:38:05 am
Quote:



You've got to admit, the vision of Clemens holed up in his castle in Memorial, dressed in black and repeating "to pitch or not to pitch" over and over again is pretty darn funny.



To pitch or not to pitch, that is the question. Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune or take arms against a sea of batters, and by opposing, continue to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. To retire, to pitch--no more--and by retire to say we end the heartache and thousand natural shocks that playing baseball is heir to....

Yeah, just like Hamlet.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: David in Jackson on January 14, 2006, 11:37:39 am
Quote:

Quote:

RHB= right handed batter
HR= Home Run

Take the # of HRs by righthanded batters in all Astros games played at MMPUS (both teams and exclude inter-league games) and divide by number of plate appearences by RHBs.  This number is X

Take the # of HRs by righthanded batters in all Astros games played away from MMPUS (both teams and exclude inter-league games) and divide by number of plate appearences by RHBs.  This number is Y.

Ratio = X/Y.

If the ball park is a neutral for RHB HRs, the ratio will be 1.00 (or 100%, or simply 100 if you drop the percent).  A ratio of 116 means HRs by RHB's are 16% more likely in Astros home games (played in MMPUS) than in Astros road games (played everywhere other than MMPUS).

This is from the Bill James baseball handbook.

Whatever you get from ESPN suck slimey donkey dicks.



These are the ratios for National League parks from 2003 to 2005, according to the Bill James Handbook 2006:
Tm    HR   LH   RH
------------------
Col  121  126  118
Phi  121  121  120
Cin  116  117  116
Ari  113  108  118
------------------
Chi  113  104  118   
Hou  112   77  133
Mil  108  101  112
LA   106  107  106
------------------
Atl   94   94   94
SF    90   82   96
StL   90   92   88
Pit   87  103   79
------------------
Was   85   99   76
Fla   84  104   78
NY    84   94   78
SD    66   78   59
The Astros and their opponents hit 112 home runs in home games for every 100 home runs they hit in road games (given the same number of at-bats).

The Astros and their opponents hit 77 home runs left-handed in home games for every 100 home runs they hit left-handed in road games (given the same number of left-handed at-bats).

The Astros and their opponents hit 133 home runs right-handed in home games for every 100 home runs they hit right-handed in road games (given the same number of right-handed at-bats).

Here is the raw data for the Astros (although I do not have the at-bats):
        ----Home-----  ----Road-----
        Hou  Opp  Tot  Hou  Opp  Tot
------------------------------------
LH HR    51   76  127   79   87  166
RH HR   205  153  358  153  120  273
------------------------------------
All HR  256  229  485  232  207  439
That is 166 lefty homers on the road to 127 at home, and 358 righty homers at home to 273 on the road. So, yes, it appears that from 2003 to 2005, Minute Maid Park has been the worst home-run park in the league for lefties and the best home-run park in the league for righties.

Nothing wrong with that.  I do not understand why people get defensive about it.



well, it involves numbers (!) and research (i.e. work) and not just your gut feeling from watching TV, so some people will have a problem with it.

I hadn't thought about that, so I'm glad to know it.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: Frobie on January 14, 2006, 11:28:10 pm
Quote:

well, it involves numbers (!) and research (i.e. work) and not just your gut feeling from watching TV, so some people will have a problem with it.



I wholeheartedly agree.  Numbers?  Facts?!  ON AN INTERNET DISCUSSION BOARD?!!!!  What is the world coming to?

I don't believe anything unless I can sense it.

Wait, I'm getting a message now.

*rubbing temples*

I believe...

I believe...

I believe I'll have another beer.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: Zan on January 15, 2006, 07:57:32 pm
Quote:

the potential for randomness, sometimes called luck, is far greater than is often recognized.



To be fair, a lot of BBP guys repeatedly make this point.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: otterj on January 15, 2006, 08:15:10 pm
The whole scout's perspective versus a BBP approach is a tired argument, imo. Obviously, every major league franchise uses a combination of evaluating tools, some slanting more one way than another. It's like asking to pick between science and spirituality. The answer is yes.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: Arky Vaughan on January 16, 2006, 11:36:36 am
Quote:

Quote:

the potential for randomness, sometimes called luck, is far greater than is often recognized.



To be fair, a lot of BBP guys repeatedly make this point.



In the abstract maybe, but when you start comparing one player's ASSBERVLIP against another player's ASSBERVLIP, and you consider that there might be an error of 5% or even 10% in there, then some of their more absolute statements become susceptible to error.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: Froback on January 16, 2006, 12:00:57 pm
Quote:

So, yes, it appears that from 2003 to 2005, Minute Maid Park has been the worst home-run park in the league for lefties and the best home-run park in the league for righties.



I have to admit, I am surprised to find this out.  I would have thought for sure it was more of a lefty power place than righty for a couple of reasons (none of which are obviously true).  One was simply we have had alot of righty pitchers here lately which should make lefty's have a slight edge (especially with Edmonds owning us those years), and I recall hearing something about the way balls carry at MMP, being more favorable to lefties who hit the other way (winds to the Crawford Boxes benefited them more).

Thanks for the breakdown.
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: MikeyBoy on January 16, 2006, 12:24:05 pm
Quote:

One was simply we have had alot of righty pitchers here lately which should make lefty's have a slight edge (especially with Edmonds owning us those years),



The Astros have had a lot more righty power hitters over the last three years, too.

Bagwell, Ensberg, Kent, Biggio, Lane, Hidalgo, & RH Berkman
 vs.
LH Berkman
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: Foghorn on January 16, 2006, 12:33:03 pm
Quote:

So, yes, it appears that from 2003 to 2005, Minute Maid Park has been the worst home-run park in the league for lefties and the best home-run park in the league for righties.

Nothing wrong with that.  I do not understand why people get defensive about it.



I get upset because the data does a massive about face when compared to 2002-2004.  Should there be a major swing by simply moving from 2002-2004 to 2003-2005?  Of course not.  There must be a boat load of noise in the background causing this shift.  So while it may have been that way in 2003-2005, making forward looking comments is probably not wise.  Who knows how it will play in 2006?
Title: Re: BB Prospectus
Post by: Arky Vaughan on January 16, 2006, 12:46:21 pm
Quote:

I get upset because the data does a massive about face when compared to 2002-2004.  Should there be a major swing by simply moving from 2002-2004 to 2003-2005?  Of course not.  There must be a boat load of noise in the background causing this shift.  So while it may have been that way in 2003-2005, making forward looking comments is probably not wise.  Who knows how it will play in 2006?



You're right about the significant of the shift.  I think the more salient point is not whether it's the "most" or "least" of something compared to other parks.

The fact that the Crawford Boxes are closer to home plate than the bullpen boxes means that righties have an easier time of it than lefties, and the data bears that out.  This is the significant information that the Astros should (and almost certainly do) bear in mind as they build their offense and pitching staff.