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nice points. The only one I disagree with was an implied assumption, possibly on my part, that Ensberg will duplicate last season. I'm not saying he won't, only it's the first time he's put a season like that. The only concern is if there is a dramatic drop off. I don't think there will be but it's still a risk.
Your statement about the astros #1 and #2 hitters scoring 38% of the time they reached base, how does that compare to league average? I'm curious because the big knock on Willy, as you stated, is his OBP isn't as high as one would hope from a leadoff. However, if he's able to be more efficient with the opportunities he has, then he obvious has offset the impact of his below avg OBP. I've looked for this type of break out before but can't find it. Mind sharing your source or was this something you put together?
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The 38% was just for the leadoff hitter (the #2 hitter scored 41%). Keep in mind my breakdown was by batting order slot, not individual.
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I'm hoping we begin to some improvement from Taveras, specifically in his discipline at the plate. His BB/K ratio was atrocious last year (1:4). Imagine the threat he would be if he turned that ratio around or just evened it out a little. (A few more doubles would be nice too, but I won't get greedy.)
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I think the question is, what was the MLB avg for the leadoff slot (and #2)? Were the Astros avg, above avg or below avg in those percentages?
------NL------ ----Astros----- ---Dif----The "Dif" columns figure the difference in the percentage of runners on base scored as well as the difference in runs that this percentage represents (i.e., had the Astros scored at the league rate, how many greater or fewer runs would have scored?). As a team, the Astros matched the league average of 35.5 percent. Another way to put this: the Astros did not finish below the league average in runs scored due to the fact that they failed to drive in runs as efficiently as the league average.
Pos OB R Pct OB R Pct Pct R
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#1 253 99 39.2% 234 90 38.5% -0.7% -2
#2 238 95 39.9% 231 95 41.1% +1.3% +3
#3 264 99 37.5% 260 96 37.0% -0.6% -1
#4 252 94 37.3% 271 98 36.2% -1.1% -3
#5 232 86 37.1% 196 84 42.8% +5.7% +11
#6 222 75 33.8% 220 75 34.1% +0.2% +1
#7 206 65 31.6% 181 56 30.9% -0.7% -1
#8 198 61 30.9% 202 57 28.2% -2.7% -5
#9 134 42 31.3% 139 42 30.3% -1.0% -1
NL Hou -----Dif-----In the "Dif" columns, "Pts" is the difference in points of OBP, "OB" is the difference in runners on base (given the same number of plate appearances), and "R" is the difference in runs, based on the percentages of runners scored above. The Astros were a cumulative 42 runners and 18 runs behind the league average by this measure. The "damage" caused at Nos. 1 and 2 are not nearly as great, combined, as at No. 5, and only barely exceed that at No. 7.
Pos OBP OBP Pts OB R
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#1 .338 .317 -21 -15 -6
#2 .330 .324 -6 -4 -2
#3 .370 .369 -1 -1 0
#4 .361 .391 +30 +21 +8
#5 .340 .291 -49 -33 -14
#6 .335 .333 -2 -1 0
#7 .320 .285 -35 -22 -7
#8 .317 .330 +13 +8 +2
#9 .234 .246 +12 +7 +2
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Absolutely. I really like the potential that this guy has, but he certainly has work to do on every aspect of his game. We have to remember that he made the jump from AA to the majors and was STILL a major ROY candidate. That's saying something. The reports I read talk about how "teachable" he is. With his talent, teachable is perhaps the best thing that can be said about him.
I was very surprised, however, to see him essentially stop using his speed at the end of the season and in the playoffs. His SB attempts drastically dropped off (4 SB in 5 attempts in Sept and Oct including playoffs), and he almost never attempted to bunt for hits late in the year. Is there a reasonable theory out there as to why this aspect of the offense disappeared?
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Taveras, a notoriously slow healer, strained left hamstring in late May. From June to the end of the season he hit over .300 in every month except Sept. 3bs began to play on top of him, yet he still beat out many infield hits.
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Taveras, a notoriously slow healer, strained left hamstring in late May. From June to the end of the season he hit over .300 in every month except Sept. 3bs began to play on top of him, yet he still beat out many infield hits.
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Reoccurance of the Hip flexor he suffered from in 2004.
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Taveras, a notoriously slow healer, strained left hamstring in late May. From June to the end of the season he hit over .300 in every month except Sept. 3bs began to play on top of him, yet he still beat out many infield hits.
Yeah, but the drop-off in SB attempts and bunt hit attempts seemed to happen in August or September, not May or June. Is there any evidence that the strained hamstring had a significant flare-up late in the season? Maybe it was a strategic reason? Maybe he lost some confidence?
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Maybe he was hitting over .350 for the month.
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Maybe he was hitting over .350 for the month.
Meaning what?