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General Discussion => Talk Zone => Topic started by: Texifornia on October 10, 2019, 11:11:16 pm

Title: ALCS Rotation
Post by: Texifornia on October 10, 2019, 11:11:16 pm
My guesses are:

Game 1: Saturday, 10-12: Greinke
Game 2: Sunday, 10-13:  Verlander
Game 3: Tuesday, 10-15: Cole
Game 4: Wednesday, 10-16: Urquidy / James / Johnny Allstaff
Game 5: Thursday, 10-17: Greinke
Game 6: Saturday, 10-19: Verlander
Game 7: Sunday, 10-20: Cole

I've liked Urquidy's stuff the last couple of times out, so I hope he'll start Game 4, but it could be anybody.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: JimR on October 11, 2019, 06:27:37 am
My guesses are:

Game 1: Saturday, 10-12: Greinke
Game 2: Sunday, 10-13:  Verlander
Game 3: Tuesday, 10-15: Cole
Game 4: Wednesday, 10-16: Urquidy / James / Johnny Allstaff
Game 5: Thursday, 10-17: Greinke
Game 6: Saturday, 10-19: Verlander
Game 7: Sunday, 10-20: Cole

I've liked Urquidy's stuff the last couple of times out, so I hope he'll start Game 4, but it could be anybody.

My guess is the rotation after game 4 is subject to change for the same reasons JV pitched on short rest. This team will get a huge boost if Greinke can step up and beat the damn Yankees.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: BudGirl on October 11, 2019, 07:51:28 am
My guess is the rotation after game 4 is subject to change for the same reasons JV pitched on short rest. This team will get a huge boost if Greinke can step up and beat the damn Yankees.

My WAG is Greinke will have a great game.  And hopefully gets a little bored during it.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: AtascAstro on October 11, 2019, 09:00:58 am
Kaplan predicts Miley and Straw will be replaced with Peacock and Abreu for the ALCS.  I'm not sure that I saw enough from Tucker to value his bat over Straw's legs but I guess if you are expecting a lot of offense in the series then better to favor the slugging potential?

Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: jbm on October 11, 2019, 09:28:28 am
These are tough and interesting decisions.  I’m glad AJ and Luhnow are making them.
Title: ALCS Rotation
Post by: TerryPuhl21 on October 11, 2019, 09:31:39 am
My guess is the rotation after game 4 is subject to change for the same reasons JV pitched on short rest. This team will get a huge boost if Greinke can step up and beat the damn Yankees.
Grienke and how he performs against the Yankees may be the key to the series. I don’t know about his numbers all-time against the Yankees, but his numbers in Yankee Stadium all-time are horrendous. Like, lifetime ERA in Yankee Stadium is over 10 or some crazy number like that. There was a big discussion about this on MLB Radio last week when they were pondering Grienke throwing against the Yankees in game 3 and how bad he’s pitched in that stadium. We may end up being fortunate that he is going game one, but that still potentially leaves him throwing Game 5 in Yankee Stadium.

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Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: Jacksonian on October 11, 2019, 09:40:12 am
Grienke and how he performs against the Yankees may be the key to the series. I don’t know about his numbers all-time against the Yankees, but his numbers in Yankee Stadium all-time are horrendous. Like, lifetime ERA in Yankee Stadium is over 10 or some crazy number like that. There was a big discussion about this on MLB Radio last week when they were pondering Grienke throwing against the Yankees in game 3 and how bad he’s pitched in that stadium. We may end up being fortunate that he is going game one, but that still potentially leaves him throwing Game 5 in Yankee Stadium.

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His last outing in Yankee stadium was the day he was traded.  5IP, 2H, 2ER, 3BB, 7K.  That would be getting it done.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: TerryPuhl21 on October 11, 2019, 09:47:07 am
His last outing in Yankee stadium was the day he was traded.  5IP, 2H, 2ER, 3BB, 7K.  That would be getting it done.
You are correct. I had forgot about that. If he could duplicate that again I would take it for sure. I wish I could remember that exact lifetime numbers Phillips was quoting but they were not good. As far as I’m concerned, the last outing is the most important. Hopefully Zack can build off of that outing.


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Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: Knoxbanedoodle on October 11, 2019, 09:51:23 am
Kaplan predicts Miley and Straw will be replaced with Peacock and Abreu for the ALCS.  I'm not sure that I saw enough from Tucker to value his bat over Straw's legs but I guess if you are expecting a lot of offense in the series then better to favor the slugging potential?

I can't imagine opting for Tucker over Straw after the LDS. At the end of the slugfest of game 5, legs won it.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: Col. Sphinx Drummond on October 11, 2019, 09:59:00 am
I can't imagine opting for Tucker over Straw after the LDS. At the end of the slugfest of game 5, legs won it.
Tucker has legs too.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: JimR on October 11, 2019, 10:05:30 am
Tucker has legs too.

Right. Tucker is a threat on the bases.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: homer on October 11, 2019, 10:08:51 am
Tucker and Straw are not comparable in terms of speed. Straw is top 5 in the league. Tucker is 8th on his team. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: Texifornia on October 11, 2019, 10:20:47 am
Tucker and Straw are not comparable in terms of speed. Straw is top 5 in the league. Tucker is 8th on his team. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard
Tucker is like a giraffe, you're amazed that he can run as fast as he does. Straw is more like a transporter beam; you see a flicker at the beginning, a vague blur in between, and a flicker back to solid form at the end.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: juliogotay on October 11, 2019, 10:20:59 am
Marisnick, while not Straw, is fast and an excellent baserunner. Perhaps Hinch is not comfortable having them both taking roster spots in this series.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: JimR on October 11, 2019, 10:23:17 am
Tucker and Straw are not comparable in terms of speed. Straw is top 5 in the league. Tucker is 8th on his team. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard

I did not say Tucker is comparable to Straw’s speed, which is elite. I said Tucker can run. He stole 30+ bases in RR, I think.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: homer on October 11, 2019, 10:23:44 am
I know the reason it won't change, but at this point it seems like Brantley-Marisnick-Springer is superior to Brantley-Springer-Reddick.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: JimR on October 11, 2019, 10:25:28 am
I know the reason it won't change, but at this point it seems like Brantley-Marisnick-Springer is superior to Brantley-Springer-Reddick.

Marisnick have reverted to a K machine. I like the current alignment with Marisnick for late inning defense.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: homer on October 11, 2019, 10:29:02 am
Marisnick have reverted to a K machine. I like the current alignment with Marisnick for late inning defense.

Reddick went 1 for 10 with 1 BB and 5K in the LDS. I'm not sure how far the drop off could be with Marisnick.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: Col. Sphinx Drummond on October 11, 2019, 10:29:29 am
Marisnick have reverted to a K machine. I like the current alignment with Marisnick for late inning defense.
Same here.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: JimR on October 11, 2019, 10:31:34 am
Reddick went 1 for 10 with 1 BB and 5K in the LDS. I'm not sure how far the drop off could be with Marisnick.

A lot. Reddick makes contact; Marisnick does not. Reddick also is an elite defender.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: juliogotay on October 11, 2019, 10:34:16 am
So, it might seem that dropping Straw for another bat off of the bench may make sense with Marisnick only being used for pinch-running and/or late inning defense. But what bat would you add? Or would it be a bullpen piece? It does seem Straw is a little bit of a luxury but Hinch/Luhnow have always liked that speed off the bench asset.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: BudGirl on October 11, 2019, 10:37:21 am
A lot. Reddick makes contact; Marisnick does not. Reddick also is an elite defender.

I'd love to see Marisnick start, but I know why he doesn't start.  Marisnick and the rest of the team know their roles.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: AtascAstro on October 11, 2019, 11:01:15 am
So, it might seem that dropping Straw for another bat off of the bench may make sense with Marisnick only being used for pinch-running and/or late inning defense. But what bat would you add? Or would it be a bullpen piece? It does seem Straw is a little bit of a luxury but Hinch/Luhnow have always liked that speed off the bench asset.

Kaplan presumed replacing Straw with a bullpen arm - Abreu (along with replacing Miley with Peacock).

Tucker's handedness is also a consideration.  He's enough of a slugging threat that you can use him to induce a pitching change - which Hinch did last night.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: BUWebguy on October 11, 2019, 11:18:16 am
Greinke career vs NYY:
15 G, 12 GS, 4-4, 5.05, 71.1 IP, 68 H, 40 ER, 55 K, 27 BB

At old Yankee Stadium:
4 G, 3 GS, 0-2, 8.82, 16.1 IP, 26 H, 16 ER, 13 K, 10 BB

At new Yankee Stadium:
2 G, 2 GS, 0-1, 11.57, 7.0 IP, 7 H, 9 ER, 7 K, 6 BB

Assuming my math is good, his numbers then vs the Yankees away from NY:
9 G, 7 GS, 4-1, 2.81, 48 IP, 35 H, 15 ER, 35 K, 11 BB
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: Astros Fan in Big D on October 11, 2019, 12:07:43 pm
It's called having a #9 hitter.

2017 was an aberration in that spot.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: TerryPuhl21 on October 11, 2019, 01:16:06 pm
Greinke career vs NYY:
15 G, 12 GS, 4-4, 5.05, 71.1 IP, 68 H, 40 ER, 55 K, 27 BB

At old Yankee Stadium:
4 G, 3 GS, 0-2, 8.82, 16.1 IP, 26 H, 16 ER, 13 K, 10 BB

At new Yankee Stadium:
2 G, 2 GS, 0-1, 11.57, 7.0 IP, 7 H, 9 ER, 7 K, 6 BB

Assuming my math is good, his numbers then vs the Yankees away from NY:
9 G, 7 GS, 4-1, 2.81, 48 IP, 35 H, 15 ER, 35 K, 11 BB
Thanks for crunching the numbers Phillips had mentioned. As I said, it may be good fortune that Grienke gets to go game 1 rather than game 3.


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Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: Bench on October 11, 2019, 02:21:41 pm
What is the expected Yankees rotation? A cursory google search didn't reveal anything to me.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: Astros Fan in Big D on October 11, 2019, 02:30:16 pm
AJ says Peacock likely to be on the ALCS roster.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: TeeJoe on October 11, 2019, 02:35:07 pm
What is the expected Yankees rotation? A cursory google search didn't reveal anything to me.
Top 3 will probably be the same as the Division Series which had, Paxton, Tanaka and Severino. I got nothing but wild guesses after that. Maybe someone else has a better handle on it.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: homer on October 11, 2019, 02:38:37 pm
What is the expected Yankees rotation? A cursory google search didn't reveal anything to me.

AJ was just lamenting on the press conference that he won't know their final roster or start until tomorrow morning.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: Jacksonian on October 11, 2019, 02:38:45 pm
Greinke career vs NYY:
15 G, 12 GS, 4-4, 5.05, 71.1 IP, 68 H, 40 ER, 55 K, 27 BB

At old Yankee Stadium:
4 G, 3 GS, 0-2, 8.82, 16.1 IP, 26 H, 16 ER, 13 K, 10 BB

At new Yankee Stadium:
2 G, 2 GS, 0-1, 11.57, 7.0 IP, 7 H, 9 ER, 7 K, 6 BB

Assuming my math is good, his numbers then vs the Yankees away from NY:
9 G, 7 GS, 4-1, 2.81, 48 IP, 35 H, 15 ER, 35 K, 11 BB

Useless information.  Nearly all of that was from his time with the Royals, a decade ago and more.  His last bad outing against them was in 2011 when he was a Brewer.

In 2013 he went 7 and gave up 2.  In 2016 he went 7 and gave up 3.

This year he had the game in New York but also a game in Arizona in April.  7+ IP, 1ER. 
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: Bench on October 11, 2019, 06:28:44 pm

Top 3 will probably be the same as the Division Series which had, Paxton, Tanaka and Severino. I got nothing but wild guesses after that. Maybe someone else has a better handle on it.

Boone says it will be Tanaka, Paxton and Severino.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: subnuclear on October 12, 2019, 11:12:16 am
Abreau and Peacock on the roster, Miley off.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: JimR on October 12, 2019, 11:17:24 am
Abreau and Peacock on the roster, Miley off.

and Straw
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: HudsonHawk on October 12, 2019, 11:33:08 am
Miley's collapse has hamstrung this team in more ways than one.  I'm disappointed they won't have Straw for a pinch running opportunity, and I have to believe they could have easily kept him and gone with an 8-man pen had they a competent 4th starter.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: JimR on October 12, 2019, 12:25:51 pm
Miley's collapse has hamstrung this team in more ways than one.  I'm disappointed they won't have Straw for a pinch running opportunity, and I have to believe they could have easily kept him and gone with an 8-man pen had they a competent 4th starter.

Do not think I agree. The move was to get more RHP for NYY. Miley, good or bad, is LH.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: HudsonHawk on October 12, 2019, 12:33:46 pm
Do not think I agree. The move was to get more RHP for NYY. Miley, good or bad, is LH.

I understand why they replaced Miley with a righthander now, but I still think if Miley had still been pitching well he'd be the starter for Game 4 and they would not have needed to swap Straw for Abreu.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: JimR on October 12, 2019, 12:58:21 pm
I understand why they replaced Miley with a righthander now, but I still think if Miley had still been pitching well he'd be the starter for Game 4 and they would not have needed to swap Straw for Abreu.

They would have had the same need for RHP in the pen.
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: HudsonHawk on October 12, 2019, 01:01:53 pm
They would have had the same need for RHP in the pen.

My thought was that they wouldn't need as many guys in the pen.  And you could easily swap out Rondon if you wanted Peacock, for example. 

Moot point now though. 
Title: Re: ALCS Rotation
Post by: JimR on October 12, 2019, 01:04:22 pm
My thought was that they wouldn't need as many guys in the pen.  And you could easily swap out Rondon if you wanted Peacock, for example. 

Moot point now though.


Swap a RHP for a RHP? Come on.