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General Discussion => Talk Zone => Topic started by: Knoxbanedoodle on July 25, 2012, 04:20:17 pm
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Having listened to more Astros baseball than watched this year, I'm curious to know what the dwellers honestly think of the current roster and their possible development. That's all.
Thanks!
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I thought this was a very informative article on Lyles: Bernie Pleskoff: Lyles has the potential to be a solid starter (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120725&content_id=35543952&vkey=news_hou&c_id=hou&partnerId=rss_hou)
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The current roster might finish .500 at AAA. The only people on the roster I see with "possible development" are Norris - in the pen - Harrell, Altuve, and Gonzalez, plus Castro on the DL.
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right now i am so confused. the roster as it is, cant see it becoming a contender. lucas H. is a stud stallion, hope they hold on to him. altuve seems to be averaging out. cj need to go to a land far far away. i keep hearing cries of bring this player or that player up, well before the season is over they will probably arrive and then the fans and the powers that be can see what is really there
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The current roster might finish .500 at AAA. The only people on the roster I see with "possible development" are Norris - in the pen - Harrell, Altuve, and Gonzalez, plus Castro on the DL.
Many have given up on him but I would put Martinez in your list. And Lyles.
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I thought this was a very informative article on Lyles: Bernie Pleskoff: Lyles has the potential to be a solid starter (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120725&content_id=35543952&vkey=news_hou&c_id=hou&partnerId=rss_hou)
I know that he's your boy and all. But thus far, while he's upped the velocity this season and hasa calm cool demeanor out there for a young kid, he hasn't demonstrated any ability to command more than one pitch at a time. And he has trouble with the long ball. However, given his age and tools, I'm far from giving up on him, but he hasn't sold me yet on actual ability to be a front line starter in the big leagues.
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I know that he's your boy and all.
Fair statement. I thought the article (from a former scout) was a good assessment of skills / potential / issues, etc. across the board though, and made for an informative read (rather than the typical rah-rah, blah-blah piece...).
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I know that he's your boy and all. But thus far, while he's upped the velocity this season and hasa calm cool demeanor out there for a young kid, he hasn't demonstrated any ability to command more than one pitch at a time. And he has trouble with the long ball. However, given his age and tools, I'm far from giving up on him, but he hasn't sold me yet on actual ability to be a front line starter in the big leagues.
As young as he is, and the way he's progressed, I'm hopeful that his ceiling is higher than Norris' was. I think Lyles has a great shot at turning out to be a good #3, who flashes a little higher from time to time. That's pretty good, I would definitely be very happy if he pans out that well.
If someone was expecting him to turn into an ace, I don't know what they were looking at. He's got the makings of a good pitcher, but not a dominant one.
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If someone was expecting him to turn into an ace, I don't know what they were looking at.
His strikeout rates in '08 and '09 are a cautionary tale reminding fans not to read too much into A-ball numbers.
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Fair statement. I thought the article (from a former scout) was a good assessment of skills / potential / issues, etc. across the board though, and made for an informative read (rather than the typical rah-rah, blah-blah piece...).
Actually, it was a good read. Thanks for calling it to our attention. It sounds like the scout and I agree on what I've been saying that Lyles needs to do in order to be a consistently successful big league pitcher-work on his secondary offerings a lot and build up strength so that he stops the velocity loss that I've seen.
I actually have more hopes for Lyles as a starter than I do Norris, whose future, and I've said this repeatedly before too, is in the bullpen to see if he can develop into a late inning guy (set up man or closer), although I have my doubts even about that. That .310 BAA for for Norris to hitters leading off an inning scares me.
Norris has swing and miss stuff. But he seems to take awhile to get going in a ballgame, and usually by that time, we're hopelessly behind and he has to leave the ballgame-he's only gotten to the seventh inning in five of 17 starts so far. Maybe I'm talking myself out of him being in the bullpen, but he needs to start trusting a third pitch or he's really not going to be successful as a starter consistently.
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I would not be a bit surprised to see Luhnow deal Norris this off-season. Maybe part of a package.
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Having listened to more Astros baseball than watched this year, I'm curious to know what the dwellers honestly think of the current roster and their possible development. That's all.
Thanks!
Current roster:
(Pitchers) - Not many of them have a repertoire of pitches right now and that is not good for a major league pitcher. A pitcher in the minors can get away with having one good solid pitch, in the majors, it's a matter of time before the league figures you out and you're dead meat. Of the starters, many suffer this malady. A couple have the stuff to compete (Norris, Lyles), but suffer from lack of location on their pitches. Makes both very vunerable to having a hitter wait them out until they get a hitters count. Dallas Keichel (sp?) needs a a little more seasoning and in due time, he'll be a middle to back of the rotation type of pitcher. Could be the next Bob Knepper or a bust like the next Zack Day. Lucas Harrel? He has very good movement on his pitches but he suffers from location problems. Mainly, he leaves the ball up way too much. Instead of pitching North/South with his stuff, he pitches East/West and that makes him more hittable. When he threw that gem in LA, he was keeping his sinker down and with a ton of movement. No one could square him all night. And it was a good hitting LA team at the time. Harrel is an enigma to me, but I fear WYSIWYG with him, meaning he's not going to be anything special (and I hope he makes me eat my words). The bullpen is a bunch of fodder for major league hitters right now because none of them know how to get major league hitters out consistently. On occasion, yes, consistently, no. And therein lies the problem. A good bullpen is a consistent bullpen... not a bullpen that relies on a good stretch of luck or hitters not figuring them out. Overall, I say you got several guys from the entire pitching staff (starters and bullpen), maybe three to four that given the right team, they've be a good help. Other than that, the future is in the minor leagues right now, not in the majors.
(Defense) - this team is woeful on defense and that is a huge liability for a pitching staff. Lack of defense makes for a bad pitching staff. You can have a good staff and great defense makes that staff a great pitching staff. Same holds true for for making a good staff into a bad staff with the lack of defense. I am not kidding when I say this, but there is no one on this team that deserves to be a starter based on their defense. It is one thing to say that they can improve, it's another to see that none of these guys know how to play major league standard defense, and we can't even begin to talk outstanding defense because of it. All these guys, based on defense, are bench players at best. You can hide one or two guys on defense if they produce well on offense, but you can't hide nine players.
(Offense) - Right now, just from a layman's point of view, these guys are trying so hard to keep a job, they just look awful swinging the bat. Several points to make here though. Lineup construction in the MLB is very important. You generally get a good feel for who belongs in run producing slots in the lineup, who is in the OBP slot, who is a contact hitter, who knows how to move a runner over, hit behind a guy, battle a pitcher when a sac fly is needed, etc. Those are all situations that happen in a game and generally speaking, you have to have guys who are used to a certain slot in the lineup to perform those duties. With the Astros, you have a eight #7 hitters filing out a lineup card. That is not good. So can any of these guys ever become the hitters they need to be for the lineup slot they currently posses? No. That is not a harsh assessment, it's more a realistic, give these guys the right team and right slot in a lineup and leave them alone sort of assessment. You can't put a guy at cleanup and expect them to know how to produce there if they do not have the skills nor aptitude to do it. The future for those spots, however, is in the minor leagues.
So overall, you're looking at only a handful that deserve major league *starting* gigs... and that has to be qualified as the *right* sort of gig. But the problem with Houston is not the talent as much as it is the team makeup. You have to make a team into a team by putting guys into roles to succeed. Right now, there is no such thing in Houston. No one has a role, they have a job and they're trying but the league has a way of exposing you and humbling you when you're a fish out of water. And it is made worse when guys try too hard (instead of relax) to do said job they've had thrust upon them.
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Noe: I agree with about 95% of what you wrote. However, on Norris, Harrell and Lyles, we differ a little. Norris has two plus pitches that,when, as you pointed out, he has command, are plus swing and miss pitches. However, elusive for him is the faith in the third that could elevate his game dramatically. It could help him keep the ball in the yard, which has been a problem. Otherwise, if he won't commit to and trust a changeup, then he's a candidate for the bullpen.
In my opinion, Lyles has no good secondary offering right now with which he can get big league hitters out. And he has absolutely no answer for lefties, who are blistering him to the tune of .354. He too has a huge problem with the long ball. As a game gets into the middle innings, and the hitters have seen him once, they can sit back and wait for Lyles to tire a bit (his conditioning needs a lot of work), which happens around 60 pitches-much too soon, then his velocity drops a little and his command disappears. Hitters are hitting .241 the first time through against, .279 the second time and a balls red hot .390 the third time through the order. That's unacceptable.
That's why Lyles has so much trouble in the fourth (6.23 ERA), fifth (12.66 ERA) and sixth (9.39 ERA) innings. The hitters have already seen everything that he can throw for strikes and can sit back and wait on the pitch they know is coming because he's gotten behind in the count due to loss of command. With all of that said, I'm not down on the kid at all. He's 21. He's unbelievably poised out there, even when his fielders fuck up, which is the sign of true pitcher maturity. I believe that Lyles has the potential to be a solid 3.
However, the one that we differ the most on is Harrell. In my opinion, Harrell has good enough stuff to eventually become a good 2 at least. I'm pretty high on him and can't believe that we got him off of the waiver wire (just like Wilton Lopez). Like you, I'd like to see a little more work down in the zone, but he's been a strike out/ground ball machine when he is on. In my opinion, Harrell is a much better pitcher than either Lyles or Norris, and has both clearly beaten on ceiling, again, in my opinion. Could he not develop? Sure. However, I love his makeup and his intensity on the mound too.
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I like Harrell a lot too, which seems easy to say now, but my dad and wife (if they remembered it, among the many banal things I ramble about) could tell you that I remarked late last season, and especially early on this year when we saw him pitch in DC in April how much I liked him. He's got that nice arm-side run-n-sink on his ball, and the fact that he can consistently get it up there at 93-94 is a huge advantage. His command seems to have really improved this season. That's what really made everything click for Brandon Webb, who walked too many hitters early in his career, if I recall.
Noe, you don't think Marwin, Schafer, and Bogey are capable defensive players? Otherwise, I tend to agree with you. Defense has hurt this club a lot.
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Noe, you don't think Marwin, Schafer, and Bogey are capable defensive players? Otherwise, I tend to agree with you. Defense has hurt this club a lot.
Schaefer's capable, but Bourn sort of ruined him for me.
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The team is not good. But it does have pieces that can be a part of the future and many that will be decent filler for a while. You add this with some of the guys that are excelling at AAA rtight now and you could have something enjoyable to watch the rest of the year. Will they be a 500 club with these changes, no. But a lot better and you'd be giving guys a chance to be part of the future
Starters
Harrel
Owens
Galarraga
Keuchel
Lyles
Relievers (got to have 8 with starters that are this young)
Closer - Bud
R - Lopez
R - Storey
R - Cruz
R - Valdez
L - Wright
L - Abad
L - Cedeno
Catchers
Corp then Castro when he comes back
Snyder
Infielders
Wallace
Altuve
Gonzalez
Moore
Downs
Bixler
Outfield
JD
Barnes
F Mart
Maxwell
Have a nice day:
Cordero, Francisco, Bogie, Schafer, EDR, AOD, CJ
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Who is "AOD"?
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Angel Of Doom?
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Who is "AOD"?
I'm guessing Angel of Doom...
I think that, even if he won't stick as a starter, Lyles has the stuff to be a great bullpen guy. He's always nails the first time or two through the lineup.
He's young and has a ton of time to grow, but if he can't make starting work, I think he'd be a nice bullpen piece.
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What about Lowrie?
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Who is "AOD"?
Yeah, Fernando Rodriguez
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What about Lowrie?
Bixler down when Lowrie comes back
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Bixler down when Lorie comes back
Lorie? What is this, Little Women?
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I'm sorry, but outside of a few players here and there being potentially capable reserves I don't see anyone on Houston's roster as being part of something you want to build around or as part of a winning team. This is a sad assemblage and fairly unwatchable and I'm trying to think of a franchise in full rebuilding mode that had a worse one but I cannot.
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This is a sad assemblage and fairly unwatchable and I'm trying to think of a franchise in full rebuilding mode that had a worse one but I cannot.
I think the 2003 Tigers (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/DET/2003.shtml) are a good comparison.
Essentially, Pena had a career, and Inge was a fringe reserve; noboy else mattered much.
The 2006 Rays (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TBD/2006.shtml) are also an apt comparison; Crawford and Shields have had good careers, that's it.
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I'm sorry, but outside of a few players here and there being potentially capable reserves I don't see anyone on Houston's roster as being part of something you want to build around or as part of a winning team.
Seriously?!? I just don't understand that. There are players on this team worth 'hoping' about. Seriously, Altuve?!? And ready to give up on JD Martinez as well? I know he's had a shaky 'sophomore season', but writing him off before we see what he does in 2013? I'm not ready to do that. And while I realize that he'll never be a #1 starter (nor did I really think he would be), Lyles certainly shows flashes of being capable of being a #2 starter. Does he have stuff to learn and improve on? Hell yes. Then again, THE KID IS 21! There is time. And for that matter, I don't think we've seen nearly enough of Wallace to forever relegate him to scrub (though that might be the case). Keuchel is what Keuchel is - a 4th or 5th starter and an innings eater. Not 'something to build a team around', but certainly worth having... And then there is Castro. His defense has been an utter disappointment this season, but that has not been his track record prior to this year. Again, the kid is coming off knee surgery where he missed an entire year.
For me, there are very few kids on the team right now that I think can reasonably be 'written off' before the end of the 2013 season. At this point we've got a very good idea of what CJ brings to the team, and that doesn't appear to be what you'd want from a 'prototypical MLB 3B'. And Shreefer. Wouldn't break my heart to see him DFAd tomorrow. There are others I'm down on as well. That said, there is a hell of a lot more reason for optimism for the future of this team than I'd imagine from reading much of the comments around here lately. Sure they are beyond total suckitutde right now... but... there is hope... Seriously!
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Seriously?!? I just don't understand that. There are players on this team worth 'hoping' about. Seriously, Altuve?!? And ready to give up on JD Martinez as well? I know he's had a shaky 'sophomore season', but writing him off before we see what he does in 2013? I'm not ready to do that. And while I realize that he'll never be a #1 starter (nor did I really think he would be), Lyles certainly shows flashes of being capable of being a #2 starter. Does he have stuff to learn and improve on? Hell yes. Then again, THE KID IS 21! There is time. And for that matter, I don't think we've seen nearly enough of Wallace to forever relegate him to scrub (though that might be the case). Keuchel is what Keuchel is - a 4th or 5th starter and an innings eater. Not 'something to build a team around', but certainly worth having... And then there is Castro. His defense has been an utter disappointment this season, but that has not been his track record prior to this year. Again, the kid is coming off knee surgery where he missed an entire year.
For me, there are very few kids on the team right now that I think can reasonably be 'written off' before the end of the 2013 season. At this point we've got a very good idea of what CJ brings to the team, and that doesn't appear to be what you'd want from a 'prototypical MLB 3B'. And Shreefer. Wouldn't break my heart to see him DFAd tomorrow. There are others I'm down on as well. That said, there is a hell of a lot more reason for optimism for the future of this team than I'd imagine from reading much of the comments around here lately. Sure they are beyond total suckitutde right now... but... there is hope... Seriously!
Apparently we're drinking from the same Kool-Aid bowl. But yeah, they suck HARD right now.
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I'm sorry, but outside of a few players here and there being potentially capable reserves I don't see anyone on Houston's roster as being part of something you want to build around or as part of a winning team. This is a sad assemblage and fairly unwatchable and I'm trying to think of a franchise in full rebuilding mode that had a worse one but I cannot.
Altuve can be a major-league starter.
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Seriously?!? I just don't understand that. There are players on this team worth 'hoping' about. Seriously, Altuve?!? And ready to give up on JD Martinez as well? I know he's had a shaky 'sophomore season', but writing him off before we see what he does in 2013? I'm not ready to do that. And while I realize that he'll never be a #1 starter (nor did I really think he would be), Lyles certainly shows flashes of being capable of being a #2 starter. Does he have stuff to learn and improve on? Hell yes. Then again, THE KID IS 21! There is time. And for that matter, I don't think we've seen nearly enough of Wallace to forever relegate him to scrub (though that might be the case). Keuchel is what Keuchel is - a 4th or 5th starter and an innings eater. Not 'something to build a team around', but certainly worth having... And then there is Castro. His defense has been an utter disappointment this season, but that has not been his track record prior to this year. Again, the kid is coming off knee surgery where he missed an entire year.
For me, there are very few kids on the team right now that I think can reasonably be 'written off' before the end of the 2013 season. At this point we've got a very good idea of what CJ brings to the team, and that doesn't appear to be what you'd want from a 'prototypical MLB 3B'. And Shreefer. Wouldn't break my heart to see him DFAd tomorrow. There are others I'm down on as well. That said, there is a hell of a lot more reason for optimism for the future of this team than I'd imagine from reading much of the comments around here lately. Sure they are beyond total suckitutde right now... but... there is hope... Seriously!
I could be wrong about Martinez, but I don't think I am. I agree with Zipp's assessment of Altuve, though I like him. But, "seriously?" The only hope with this team is that while they'll suck, at least it won't be while wearing pinstripes next season.
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I could be wrong about Martinez, but I don't think I am.
And I'm not sure you are wrong about him - just that I'm going to hold off on that pronouncement until after 2013...
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But yeah, they suck HARD right now.
How bad you may ask?!? Olney takes a stab at it... LINK (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/olney_buster/id/8201688/trade-deadline-holes-angels-rangers-others-mlb)
• It's hard to describe how bad the Houston Astros have been, but the numbers speak for themselves: They have two wins in their past 24 games, with a minus-73 run differential. To put that in perspective, their average run differential per game is minus-3.04. The average run differential for the '62 Mets was minus-2.04.
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How bad you may ask?!? Olney takes a stab at it... LINK (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/olney_buster/id/8201688/trade-deadline-holes-angels-rangers-others-mlb)
• It's hard to describe how bad the Houston Astros have been, but the numbers speak for themselves: They have two wins in their past 24 games, with a minus-73 run differential. To put that in perspective, their average run differential per game is minus-3.04. The average run differential for the '62 Mets was minus-2.04.
That, folks, is pretty fucking bad.
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at the first of the season the loses were learning experiences and expected to go along with the plan, now i have ptbs (post traumatic baseball syndrome ) i dont know if i feel empty or just lack of wins shocked.
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while they'll suck, at least it won't be while wearing pinstripes next season.
I think you've hit upon the 2013 team slogan.
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Are we sure about the pinstripes? If so, are we sure it won't be something worse?
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Are we sure about the pinstripes? If so, are we sure it won't be something worse?
Orange pinstripes!
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Pale blue uniforms with vertical rainbow jersey pinstripes. And orange shoes. It will be glorious.
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Seriously?!? I just don't understand that. There are players on this team worth 'hoping' about. Seriously, Altuve?!? And ready to give up on JD Martinez as well? I know he's had a shaky 'sophomore season', but writing him off before we see what he does in 2013? I'm not ready to do that. And while I realize that he'll never be a #1 starter (nor did I really think he would be), Lyles certainly shows flashes of being capable of being a #2 starter. Does he have stuff to learn and improve on? Hell yes. Then again, THE KID IS 21! There is time. And for that matter, I don't think we've seen nearly enough of Wallace to forever relegate him to scrub (though that might be the case). Keuchel is what Keuchel is - a 4th or 5th starter and an innings eater. Not 'something to build a team around', but certainly worth having... And then there is Castro. His defense has been an utter disappointment this season, but that has not been his track record prior to this year. Again, the kid is coming off knee surgery where he missed an entire year.
For me, there are very few kids on the team right now that I think can reasonably be 'written off' before the end of the 2013 season. At this point we've got a very good idea of what CJ brings to the team, and that doesn't appear to be what you'd want from a 'prototypical MLB 3B'. And Shreefer. Wouldn't break my heart to see him DFAd tomorrow. There are others I'm down on as well. That said, there is a hell of a lot more reason for optimism for the future of this team than I'd imagine from reading much of the comments around here lately. Sure they are beyond total suckitutde right now... but... there is hope... Seriously!
Agree with most all this, and glad it is expressed.
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bad unis..pinstripes crossway like the rainbow , no buttons on the top and a bright candystripe stripe down the side of the pants that are shorter on one side to honor tals hill
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The most annoying semi-serious statement being thrown around every single day about this team is "they wouldn't be .500 in AAA". I know the team sucks, but the major league Houston Astros are better than their AAA team, the Oklahoma City Redhawks. I think everyone would agree with that. And guess what, OKC's record is 60-44. So everyone (nobody in particular...more just the twitter universe and talk radio), please shut the fuck up with that.
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The most annoying semi-serious statement being thrown around every single day about this team is "they wouldn't be .500 in AAA". I know the team sucks, but the major league Houston Astros are better than their AAA team, the Oklahoma City Redhawks. I think everyone would agree with that. And guess what, OKC's record is 60-44. So everyone (nobody in particular...more just the twitter universe and talk radio), please shut the fuck up with that.
Absolutely right. Any other thought is an insult to the new management team that they gave Millsie the wrong 25 to take north. I'm sure that they have a guy or two, e.g., Barnes over Schreefer and Paredes over ? (just don't have a spot for Paredes unless he goes to the OF or back to the hot corner) who could compete if the positions were really open today (I think that they penciled in Schreefer into the lineup during the winter and he was staying there come hell or high water-well, both have arrived here at the end of July).
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Are we sure about the pinstripes? If so, are we sure it won't be something worse?
Early 80's Tucson Toros
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bad unis..pinstripes crossway like the rainbow , no buttons on the top and a bright candystripe stripe down the side of the pants that are shorter on one side to honor tals hill
That's pretty funny.
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The bully throws scoreless baseball, after the game's outcome was no longer in doubt. Sigh.
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Early 80's Tucson Toros
Like this? (http://tucsoncitizen.com/wildaboutazcats/files/2012/06/JimPankovits.jpg)
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Early 80's Tucson Toros
Hey, I grew up in Tucson and have a lot of fond memories of the Toros.
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Hey, I grew up in Tucson and have a lot of fond memories of the Toros.
Everyone has to be from somewhere. It just as soon be a town that has a professional baseball team in it.
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Like this? (http://tucsoncitizen.com/wildaboutazcats/files/2012/06/JimPankovits.jpg)
That isn't even close to Pankovitz.
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Like this? (http://tucsoncitizen.com/wildaboutazcats/files/2012/06/JimPankovits.jpg)
close the all orange were pretty bad though
This (http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eBdOW80GQFs/T_wSVTpvycI/AAAAAAAADvo/maj-vQHsGZI/s1600/TucsonToros_display_image.jpg)
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Noe: I agree with about 95% of what you wrote. However, on Norris, Harrell and Lyles, we differ a little. Norris has two plus pitches that,when, as you pointed out, he has command, are plus swing and miss pitches. However, elusive for him is the faith in the third that could elevate his game dramatically. It could help him keep the ball in the yard, which has been a problem. Otherwise, if he won't commit to and trust a changeup, then he's a candidate for the bullpen.
Right now, my opinion on Norris is that he is the one pitcher who is starter material more than anyone else. His injury this year is taking it's toll on his delivery and that means he has no feel for his slider any more. To rely solely on the fastball means he has to locate better than he has... and I'd say his injury is not allowing him to be as accurate as he can be. Does he need a third pitch? Only if he does not master fastball (and location) and his devastating slider again. I think it's a myth that a starter has to have three good pitches. I think they can have two outstanding pitches and location and win consistently. You only need three if you don't know how to locate your pitches well.
In my opinion, Lyles has no good secondary offering right now with which he can get big league hitters out. And he has absolutely no answer for lefties, who are blistering him to the tune of .354. He too has a huge problem with the long ball. As a game gets into the middle innings, and the hitters have seen him once, they can sit back and wait for Lyles to tire a bit (his conditioning needs a lot of work), which happens around 60 pitches-much too soon, then his velocity drops a little and his command disappears. Hitters are hitting .241 the first time through against, .279 the second time and a balls red hot .390 the third time through the order. That's unacceptable.
That's why Lyles has so much trouble in the fourth (6.23 ERA), fifth (12.66 ERA) and sixth (9.39 ERA) innings. The hitters have already seen everything that he can throw for strikes and can sit back and wait on the pitch they know is coming because he's gotten behind in the count due to loss of command. With all of that said, I'm not down on the kid at all. He's 21. He's unbelievably poised out there, even when his fielders fuck up, which is the sign of true pitcher maturity. I believe that Lyles has the potential to be a solid 3.
I have to go back and read what I said about Lyles because I'm not sure what we agree or disagree on. I agree with this much: You never give up on a 21 year old starter. Never!
However, the one that we differ the most on is Harrell. In my opinion, Harrell has good enough stuff to eventually become a good 2 at least.
Wow! Ahum... no he doesn't.
I'm pretty high on him and can't believe that we got him off of the waiver wire (just like Wilton Lopez). Like you, I'd like to see a little more work down in the zone, but he's been a strike out/ground ball machine when he is on. In my opinion, Harrell is a much better pitcher than either Lyles or Norris, and has both clearly beaten on ceiling, again, in my opinion. Could he not develop? Sure. However, I love his makeup and his intensity on the mound too.
He's not better than Lyles or Norris on the potential nor stuff side. He's different, but he's no Greg Maddux in the making. He's a fifth, maybe long relief man on most MLB staffs.
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Noe, you don't think Marwin, Schafer, and Bogey are capable defensive players? Otherwise, I tend to agree with you. Defense has hurt this club a lot.
When the season started (yes, back in April), the thing I hated the most about this team was the defense. It was awful and I thought "Give them time, they should get better". I felt at the time that the commitment to stopping the other team was not there and in a way, the praises they were getting for coming from behind and not giving up was giving them (the players) this false sense that this is the way to play MLB standard baseball. It isn't. Guess what though, they did get a little better and then they made a push to get to .500. The good offense they had going for them coupled with a commitment to play defense made the pitchers much better. I even wrote about it and said this was good to see from the young team, a commitment to playing defense. I should have knocked on wood or my own noggin because no sooner did that write-up leave my keyboard and this team stopped playing defense and started kicking the ball around.
And they have not stopped playing sloppy, hap-hazard baseball since. The game is about having at least one more run than the other team at the end of the nine innings. More offense? Sure, why not. More defense? Abso-freaking-lutely!. Here is the rub, why can't they play good defense? I say they don't have anybody on this team that knows what good defense looks like in the majors. It starts up the middle. If you're weak there on defense, you're now a very bad major league team. Doesn't matter who pitches for you and it doesn't matter what lineup you trot out there, you're not going to win a lot of games the way you should when you have good to great up the middle defense. Corner defense can be less than spectacular on the right team, but on this team, it only adds to mix ways of losing ballgames day in and day out.
Marwin Gonzales: Good hands, not necessarily soft, but not a clank either. Very strong arm (the major plus to his game). Range is suspect from what I can tell and that is not good when you're talking short stop. IOW - he's no Adam Everett. He's decent, but right now, Houston needs more than just decent. Decent is a bench player, not a starter.
Schafer: Enigmatic player, can show flashes of brilliant play and flashes of head up the rectum too. Sometimes in the same inning. A good centerfielder at MMPUS must (there is no room for debate on this one, this is the one single solitary issue to judge a CF for Houston) have gap to gap coverage on a hit baseball. If not, then the one place a pitcher derives his success pitching at Minute Maid is gone. Right now, there is no denying somebody is kicking themselves for thinking Schafer was supposed to be good enough to cover gap to gap for Houston. He doesn't do so well IMHO going to his left or right. He has the knack for going back or in for a hit ball, but side to side is a problem. My biggest gripe on Schafer is the makeup. I just get this vibe he's not a smart player at his position and relies solely on instinct... which makes his decision making prowess less than desirable.
Bogey: As mentioned before, corner defense on the right team can be less than perfect and in many teams, Bogey's defense is a plus for them. On Houston's team, his good arm helps, but not his entire makeup on defense. He tends to get bad reads on balls sometimes and truth be told, he's still learning to play outfield from what I can tell. He's the one bright spot on defense if that is any plus on his side. But that is the proverbial one eyed man being the king of the blind to me.
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Right now, my opinion on Norris is that he is the one pitcher who is starter material more than anyone else. His injury this year is taking it's toll on his delivery and that means he has no feel for his slider any more. To rely solely on the fastball means he has to locate better than he has... and I'd say his injury is not allowing him to be as accurate as he can be. Does he need a third pitch? Only if he does not master fastball (and location) and his devastating slider again. I think it's a myth that a starter has to have three good pitches. I think they can have two outstanding pitches and location and win consistently. You only need three if you don't know how to locate your pitches well.
I agree with you that Norris has been a different pitcher since his injury. And I agree that you can be an excellent starter with two really outstanding pitches. See Ryan, Nolan. You also are probably right about Norris being better in the rotation than in the bullpen. His first inning (6.23 ERA) and first hitter (.310 BAA) problems provide strong arguments against him coming out of the bullpen.
I have to go back and read what I said about Lyles because I'm not sure what we agree or disagree on. I agree with this much: You never give up on a 21 year old starter. Never!
As you know, I said that I was not giving up on Lyles. I simply pointed out his problems with backing stats . Did you agree with my analysis?
Wow! Ahum... no he doesn't.
We'll have to agree to disagree, although I'm probably letting my love of Harrell's mound presence color my judgment of his ability. I do see an innings eater in Harrell, who has good life/movement on one pitch, which is a plus pitch that he has pretty good command of right now--better command than either Norris or Lyles. Harrell needs to work on his secondary stuff too in order to be successful long term. However, I love his intensity and believe that he'll develop the secondary pitches to be a serviceable 2-3, even if only on the Astros, which I realize is not saying much right now. At this point, with the loss of Wandy, who slots No. 1 now, other than none of the above? You could make a strong argument for Harrell based purely on results.
He's not better than Lyles or Norris on the potential nor stuff side. He's different, but he's no Greg Maddux in the making. He's a fifth, maybe long relief man on most MLB staffs.
You may be right on both scores, but Lyles has a longer road to travel in my opinion right now to reach his ceiling, which admittedly should be as a 2-3, than does Harrell.
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I agree with you that Norris has been a different pitcher since his injury. And I agree that you can be an excellent starter with two really outstanding pitches. See Ryan, Nolan. You also are probably right about Norris being better in the rotation than in the bullpen. His first inning (6.23 ERA) and first hitter (.310 BAA) problems provide strong arguments against him coming out of the bullpen.
I believe most teams, or hitters, know when a pitcher isn't his regular self. It's like sharks smelling blood from an injured seal I guess. It doesn't take long for them to pounce on the meat as it were. I think from what I've seen of Norris this season and in season's past, he's pitching hurt right now and trying to suck it up and rely on his heater. A badly located heater too and hence the slapping around he's been subjected too lately. Will he regain his ability? I am of the opinion that he will, as long as he doesn't lose his way and alter things that he thinks will make him better (and end up making him worse). The thing I'm seeing right now is a slider that comes and goes with every pitch. That is not the Norris I've seen in the past and if he doesn't think nor have the feel for that pitch any more, he's going to be a very different pitcher from now on. It's worth watching for the next month or two if he starts to put some good outings together with the type of stuff he used to feature.
As you know, I said that I was not giving up on Lyles. I simply pointed out his problems with backing stats . Did you agree with my analysis?
Not sure what "backing" stats are and really don't care at this point. No one is going in to negotiate a raise at this point and I'm not their agent either so stats mean very little to me at this point of watching this team play. But if you are asking me if I agree that Lyles needs to do better at developing his secondary pitches, then yes, I agree. I think I was trying to say that about this staff any way. No one has a solid repertoire right now. Lyles has the potential to be one heck of a pitcher if he starts to throw a changeup effectively. From what I understand, he started to include a changeup in his game this season and it's a work in progress. One thing that the Astros did with Roy Oswalt is have him back off trying to strike everyone out in AA/AAA and throw more two seamers to get the cheap outs. A pitcher whose game is to challenge hitters (with the intent of striking them out) is prone to exhaustive outings. Once Lyles understands that ground ball outs are as an effective if not the most effective way to pitch in the majors, he should be fine.
We'll have to agree to disagree, although I'm probably letting my love of Harrell's mound presence color my judgment of his ability. I do see an innings eater in Harrell, who has good life/movement on one pitch, which is a plus pitch that he has pretty good command of right now--better command than either Norris or Lyles. Harrell needs to work on his secondary stuff too in order to be successful long term. However, I love his intensity and believe that he'll develop the secondary pitches to be a serviceable 2-3, even if only on the Astros, which I realize is not saying much right now. At this point, with the loss of Wandy, who slots No. 1 now, other than none of the above? You could make a strong argument for Harrell based purely on results.
I hope Harrel makes me eat my words. I really do. I see, however, the reversal from Lyles. While Lyles has upside, Harrel is what he is. And if what he is right now is consistent and effective, then yes, it's all good. However, when the league figures you out and you continue to live up in the zone, you're not going to do very well, but you can be a serviceable #5 on the team if they ever get better. So if we're just talking about the woeful team right now, hell, Harrel is the man. Which is a sad thing to say once you think about it.
You may be right on both scores, but Lyles has a longer road to travel in my opinion right now to reach his ceiling, which admittedly should be as a 2-3, than does Harrell.
I guess where you pessimism ends on Lyles, my optimism takes over. Same with my pessimism on Harrel and your optimism on him. I'm guessing time will tell and Jordan Lyles, when all is said and done (IMHO) will far outlast Lucas Harrel as a very good starter on this team.
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Noe: I hope that both Harrell and Lyles exceed our best expectations. I really do. I like Lyles a lot.
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Noe: I hope that both Harrell and Lyles exceed our best expectations. I really do. I like Lyles a lot.
Agreed.
And the reality is that the future for this team is in the minor leagues. Here is hoping Lyles and Harrel are the veteran leadership that will help those kids later on.
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By the way, Lyles had a very good change at CC. Not outstanding, but better than you see from most pitchers on the current staff, or recent staffs for that matter. He didn't have this cutter (not the present incarnation) at that time, or at least didn't use it when I was there.
I have no idea if the change has regressed, he has lost confidence in it, the catcher places no value on it and won't call it, the club wants him to use and develop other means for dealing with lefties, or what.
I don't agree with the assessment that his secondary pitches are crap. The curve has come a long way, and it is more about consistency than developing an effective one. Like mentioned previously, the cutter is new. It needs to be tightened up or abandoned, IMO. Based on monitoring his progress, he'll address it one way or another.
I view him as a work in progress, working on his repertoire in full view. I have little concern about him as I have seen him almost since the beginning, and if viewed over a time period, he is always improving and that is the only important thing to me. Contrast that with Norris for example, who is basically the same pitcher he was years ago in CC.
At any rate, isolating points in time and declaring his future based on those points, or even his eventual upside, is frankly being ignorant of the big picture unfolding in front of you. Where that progress stops, or if frustration starts to surface, are the only things I am watching for. So far, I have seen signs of neither.
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I don't agree with the assessment that his secondary pitches are crap. The curve has come a long way, and it is more about consistency than developing an effective one. Like mentioned previously, the cutter is new. It needs to be tightened up or abandoned, IMO. Based on monitoring his progress, he'll address it one way or another.
Neither of us described his secondary pitches as "crap." I said that they're not good enough to get big league hitters out on a consistent basis, which is true.
At any rate, isolating points in time and declaring his future based on those points, or even his eventual upside, is frankly being ignorant of the big picture unfolding in front of you. Where that progress stops, or if frustration starts to surface, are the only things I am watching for. So far, I have seen signs of neither.
I don't think that either of us was focusing on single points in time either and projecting merely based upon that. I referred to his repertoire of pitches and his command, which is based on having seen him go now for parts of two seasons.
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I wasn't referring to either of you. I was referring to statements I read here and other places where they see such and such player perform for a short period of time, latch onto that data and project their entire career on that. I know I have been guilty of that, and I bet others have been also.
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I wasn't referring to either of you. I was referring to statements I read here and other places where they see such and such player perform for a short period of time, latch onto that data and project their entire career on that. I know I have been guilty of that, and I bet others have been also.
I understand now. I was confused by the timing of your comment. And I'm certain that I've been guilty of such myopia before too.
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Noe: I watched both Lyles and Harrell critically in their last starts and now agree with you about Harrell, who struck me too much like a one trick pony. I was letting my love of his approach color my judgment of his ceiling. Lyles still needs to put it together, which I think that he will, but he has a higher ceiling than Harrell. Thanks for forcing me to rethink my position, which is why there are cross-checkers in scouting.
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Noe: I watched both Lyles and Harrell critically in their last starts and now agree with you about Harrell, who struck me too much like a one trick pony. I was letting my love of his approach color my judgment of his ceiling. Lyles still needs to put it together, which I think that he will, but he has a higher ceiling than Harrell. Thanks for forcing me to rethink my position, which is why there are cross-checkers in scouting.
Truth be told, one time out does not a good eval make, but I understand the sentiment. With Harrel, it's all about location because he has very little else. If on (his location), he is very effective, but I would be surprised if he is more than a #4 when all is said and done. And that is not bad to be honest.