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General Discussion => Talk Zone => Topic started by: Reuben on July 26, 2009, 04:12:22 pm

Title: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Reuben on July 26, 2009, 04:12:22 pm
Hampton, Ortiz, and Moehler seem to have developed a pattern of 3 pretty good starts in a row, or all kind of having crappy starts, like this turn through. As noted in the GZ, they all can make very good cases for being a good #5 starter. But #3... not so much. #4... maybe. Bazardo had another good outing yesterday at RR. Is it time to finally bring him up, and if so who should he replace?

And yes, I realize this is a textbook right-after-a-loss reactionary post. FWIW, I think Moehler had some tough luck today.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Jacksonian on July 26, 2009, 04:31:23 pm
Hampton, Ortiz, and Moehler seem to have developed a pattern of 3 pretty good starts in a row, or all kind of having crappy starts, like this turn through. As noted in the GZ, they all can make very good cases for being a good #5 starter. But #3... not so much. #4... maybe. Bazardo had another good outing yesterday at RR. Is it time to finally bring him up, and if so who should he replace?

And yes, I realize this is a textbook right-after-a-loss reactionary post. FWIW, I think Moehler had some tough luck today.

I am absolutely against the Astros bringing up any inexperienced pitchers.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: SaltyParker on July 26, 2009, 04:41:49 pm
Chances of an injury loom. Hampton has pitched more innings already this year then since 2004. My guess is that Paulino will get another look.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: DVauthrin on July 26, 2009, 05:02:05 pm
I am absolutely against the Astros bringing up any inexperienced pitchers.

I wonder how expensive Doug Davis or Jon Garland in Arizona would be in terms of prospects.   Both are free agents after the year, and Arizona is out of it this season. 

In fact, Garland has been excellent on the road for the D-Backs, posting a 2.67 era in 10 starts.   The Astros have been interested in him in the past as well. 
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Reuben on July 26, 2009, 05:06:28 pm
I am absolutely against the Astros bringing up any inexperienced pitchers.
Because of Cooper's treatment of Paulino?
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Jacksonian on July 26, 2009, 05:29:18 pm
Because of Cooper's treatment of Paulino?

Cecil Cooper hates young people.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Mr. Happy on July 26, 2009, 05:33:22 pm
Because of Cooper's treatment of Paulino?

Do we need any other reason? His treatment of Bourn last season too.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: JimR on July 26, 2009, 05:41:00 pm
Hampton won his start Friday.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Jacksonian on July 26, 2009, 08:29:18 pm
Hampton won his start Friday.

4.74 ERA is best of the 3 #5's.  Moehler's is now over 5.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Reuben on July 26, 2009, 10:35:45 pm
4.74 ERA is best of the 3 #5's.  Moehler's is now over 5.
Moehler's numbers have actually been pretty good if you take out his wretched first 2 starts before he went on the DL.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Mr. Happy on July 26, 2009, 10:41:02 pm
Moehler's numbers have actually been pretty good if you take out his wretched first 2 starts before he went on the DL.

That's true. Moehler has been pretty good, especially for a number 5.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: SaltyParker on July 26, 2009, 10:44:57 pm
Moehler = 5.1
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Jacksonian on July 26, 2009, 10:56:24 pm
Moehler's numbers have actually been pretty good if you take out his wretched first 2 starts before he went on the DL.

4.06 after taking out the 2 April starts.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: jaklewein on July 27, 2009, 03:41:10 pm
4.06 after taking out the 2 April starts.


The A's would likely accept a "modest prospect" for Justin Duchscherer, who's currently rehabbing. There's about $1.3MM remaining on the righty's contract before he hits free agency after the season.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/as-rumors-wuertz-duchscherer.html


Maybe an option for Wade-n-Co.  Low cost, both in terms of cash and prospects.  Might be worth a shot.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Jacksonian on July 27, 2009, 03:53:56 pm

The A's would likely accept a "modest prospect" for Justin Duchscherer, who's currently rehabbing. There's about $1.3MM remaining on the righty's contract before he hits free agency after the season.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/as-rumors-wuertz-duchscherer.html


Maybe an option for Wade-n-Co.  Low cost, both in terms of cash and prospects.  Might be worth a shot.

I keep thinking Doug Davis will be this year's Randy Wolf.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: MusicMan on July 27, 2009, 03:55:37 pm
I keep thinking Doug Davis will be this year's Randy Wolf.

I'd prefer Garland.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Jacksonian on July 27, 2009, 04:00:02 pm
I'd prefer Garland.

Why?
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: MusicMan on July 27, 2009, 04:06:05 pm
Why?

Garland away from their bandbox this year:

10 G, 64 IP, 2.67 ERA, .251/.312/.347 allowed,.276 BABIP (about average)

At 10 games at home, he's pitched 58 innings with a 6.33 ERA and a .327 BABIP.  It looks to me like he could be in pretty good shape with a change of scenery.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: jaklewein on July 27, 2009, 04:09:48 pm
Isn't Garland tied up in a fairly pick contract?  And Davis...sure, but I was thinking even he might cost to much in the form of prospects.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Bench on July 27, 2009, 04:10:01 pm
Garland away from their bandbox this year:

10 G, 64 IP, 2.67 ERA, .251/.312/.347 allowed,.276 BABIP (about average)

At 10 games at home, he's pitched 58 innings with a 6.33 ERA and a .327 BABIP.  It looks to me like he could be in pretty good shape with a change of scenery.

I've seen BABIP employed as a way to demonstrate that a particular hitter is "lucky" or "unlucky" that his hits aren't falling in.  Is there any way to account for luck vs. skill in comparing BABIP?
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: MusicMan on July 27, 2009, 04:14:20 pm
I think the skill portion comes in when you look at them over their entire career.  For example, Garland allows .289 BABIP over his career; so he might be slightly lucky on the road this year, but I think he's been (a) unlucky or (b) giving up a lot of cheap dingers in the home ballpark.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: MusicMan on July 27, 2009, 04:14:40 pm
Isn't Garland tied up in a fairly pick contract?  And Davis...sure, but I was thinking even he might cost to much in the form of prospects.

$9M mutual option for 2010, IIRC.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Jacksonian on July 27, 2009, 04:18:48 pm
Garland away from their bandbox this year:

10 G, 64 IP, 2.67 ERA, .251/.312/.347 allowed,.276 BABIP (about average)

At 10 games at home, he's pitched 58 innings with a 6.33 ERA and a .327 BABIP.  It looks to me like he could be in pretty good shape with a change of scenery.

I would guess Garland will cost more in prospects than Davis.  Wade's acted stingy with the current prospects.

Garland's contract, from Cots;

Jon Garland rhp
1 year/$7.25M (2009), plus 2010 mutual option

    * 1 year/$7.25M (2009)
          o signed by Arizona as a free agent 1/29/09
          o 09:$6.25M, 10:$10M mutual option ($2.5M buyout if club declines, $1M buyout if player declines)
          o if traded in 2009, new club may not offer arbitration if Garland ranks as a Type A free agent
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: MusicMan on July 27, 2009, 04:23:01 pm
I was guessing they'd be about equal in prospect cost.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Jacksonian on July 27, 2009, 04:26:14 pm
I was guessing they'd be about equal in prospect cost.

Not if the trading team wants to and gets him to accept the option which I believe would be a good move for the team dealing for him.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: GreatBagwellsBeard on July 27, 2009, 04:27:25 pm
Would it be worth one of the outfield prospects, given the bottleneck at the major league level?
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Mr. Happy on July 27, 2009, 04:29:07 pm
Would it be worth one of the outfield prospects, given the bottleneck at the major league level?

Hell, I'd send them Gunther today.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Jacksonian on July 27, 2009, 04:31:13 pm
Would it be worth one of the outfield prospects, given the bottleneck at the major league level?

Yes, esp Bogusevic.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: JackAstro on July 27, 2009, 04:33:09 pm
Would it be worth one of the outfield prospects, given the bottleneck at the major league level?

If you have decent options in place at the major league level, I think trading OF prospects for a quality starter is a no-brainer, every time.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Jacksonian on July 27, 2009, 04:34:07 pm
Hell, I'd send them Gunther today.

Not for Davis or Garland.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Mr. Happy on July 27, 2009, 04:35:49 pm
Not for Davis or Garland.

If we could sign the one we'd get, you still wouldn't make that deal?
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: VirtualBob on July 27, 2009, 04:37:37 pm
Not for Davis or Garland.
I agree ... the OF prospects seem to be more suspects to me.  Windmill Abernathy is not going to improve facing ML pitching, and neither Yordany nor Buyavowel have really showed mastery at the AAA level.  Yordany would at least be a defensive upgrade, but for now I think the overall drop-off if Pence is traded would be pretty steep.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: MusicMan on July 27, 2009, 04:38:12 pm
If we could sign the one we'd get, you still wouldn't make that deal?

Say what you will about PENCE?!?!?!, but he's a solid contributor to the current team.  You're only going after Davis or Garland to make a run this year, so why would you give him up?  If next year's your concern, then sign them as a FA.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Jacksonian on July 27, 2009, 04:40:37 pm
If we could sign the one we'd get, you still wouldn't make that deal?

Right now Pence has much more value in the majors than either Davis or Garland.  He's a goofball, but he's a legit mlb hitter.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: VirtualBob on July 27, 2009, 04:42:32 pm
Right now Pence has much more value in the majors than either Davis or Garland.  He's a goofball, but he's a legit mlb hitter.
Exactly.  I don't expect perenniel all star performance, but adequate-to-good seems like a reasonable projection.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Jacksonian on July 27, 2009, 04:44:53 pm
Exactly.  I don't expect perenniel all star performance, but adequate-to-good seems like a reasonable projection.

A middle of the order hitter under club control for several more years over a #3 at best pitcher in a contract year.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Mr. Happy on July 27, 2009, 04:50:33 pm
A middle of the order hitter under club control for several more years over a #3 at best pitcher in a contract year.

I agree with you now. But I don't think that we can legitimately make a run without at least a real no. 3 guy, and we don't have him now.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: MusicMan on July 27, 2009, 04:52:35 pm
I agree with you now. But I don't think that we can legitimately make a run without at least a real no. 3 guy, and we don't have him now.

Ask me again on Thursday if we should be buying.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Mr. Happy on July 27, 2009, 04:53:38 pm
Ask me again on Thursday if we should be buying.

I hears ya.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Jacksonian on July 27, 2009, 04:54:57 pm
I agree with you now. But I don't think that we can legitimately make a run without at least a real no. 3 guy, and we don't have him now.

If Garland can be the kind of pitcher the rest of the way that he has been on the road for AZ, as MM described, I'd think he's your man.  

Though Davis's ERA has been under 4 since mid-April, and that includes a beating at Coors last week.  He's been remarkably consistent this year, in a good way.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: DVauthrin on July 27, 2009, 05:16:04 pm
If Garland can be the kind of pitcher the rest of the way that he has been on the road for AZ, as MM described, I'd think he's your man.  

Though Davis's ERA has been under 4 since mid-April, and that includes a beating at Coors last week.  He's been remarkably consistent this year, in a good way.

I'd rather have garland and the mutual option for 2010, unless davis comes much cheaper.   Also, while i'm not a big fan of Pence, I wouldn't move him for these types of pitchers.   Cliff Lee is a totally different story, however.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: juliogotay on July 27, 2009, 05:59:59 pm
I'd rather have garland and the mutual option for 2010, unless davis comes much cheaper.   Also, while i'm not a big fan of Pence, I wouldn't move him for these types of pitchers.   Cliff Lee is a totally different story, however.


Pence is going nowhere.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Jacksonian on July 27, 2009, 06:12:20 pm
I'd rather have garland and the mutual option for 2010, unless davis comes much cheaper.   Also, while i'm not a big fan of Pence, I wouldn't move him for these types of pitchers.   Cliff Lee is a totally different story, however.

Davis will cost the Astros just under $3mil for the rest of the season if AZ doesn't give cash.  Then he's a FA.  If the Astros offer arb and he declines then they could get comp if he's a type A or B.

Garland will cost the Astros just over $2mil for the rest of the season if AZ doesn't give cash.  Then it's either $10mil next year if the mutual option gets picked up, or $2.5mil to buy out the option, or $1mil if Garland declines the option.  Plus if the option doesn't get picked up the Astros cannot offer arb and therefore not get comp if Garland is a type A.

Garland's better but a deal for him will be more complicated.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: DVauthrin on July 27, 2009, 06:12:20 pm

Pence is going nowhere.

I'm well aware of that.    I was saying what I would move him for if I were running the team. 
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: BudGirl on July 27, 2009, 06:46:30 pm

Pence is going nowhere.

he better be going to wrigley with his low and away swing.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Jose Cruz III on July 28, 2009, 06:58:13 pm
I'd rather have garland and the mutual option for 2010, unless davis comes much cheaper.   Also, while i'm not a big fan of Pence, I wouldn't move him for these types of pitchers.   Cliff Lee is a totally different story, however.
I don't think I would move him for Lee, either. Now Halladay is a different story.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: JackAstro on July 28, 2009, 08:36:26 pm
I don't think I would move him for Lee, either. Now Halladay is a different story.

You would not move Pence for last year's Cy Young winner, who'd be under contract through next season for $9 million?
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Duder on July 28, 2009, 09:02:10 pm
You would not move Pence for last year's Cy Young winner, who'd be under contract through next season for $9 million?

I know I would in a heartbeat.  A 1-2-3 punch of Roy, Lee, and Wandy would be hard to beat.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Jose Cruz III on July 28, 2009, 09:33:19 pm
You would not move Pence for last year's Cy Young winner, who'd be under contract through next season for $9 million?
Probably not. Especially if they wanted good prospects along with Pence. I will admit I thought Lee was a FA after the year so that makes it a better deal.

Who would replace Pence?
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: JimR on July 29, 2009, 09:04:48 am
Probably not. Especially if they wanted good prospects along with Pence. I will admit I thought Lee was a FA after the year so that makes it a better deal.

Who would replace Pence?

who would replace Pence? doing what? he is fungible.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Gizzmonic on July 29, 2009, 09:37:10 am
I know I would in a heartbeat.  A 1-2-3 punch of Roy, Lee, and Wandy would be hard to beat.

So in this scenario, is Lee pitching, or have Roy and Wandy transformed into middle-of-the-order hitters?
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Duder on July 29, 2009, 10:35:03 am
So in this scenario, is Lee pitching, or have Roy and Wandy transformed into middle-of-the-order hitters?

Obviously I'm referring to the front of our rotation, dipshit.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: JackAstro on July 29, 2009, 10:43:55 am
So in this scenario, is Lee pitching, or have Roy and Wandy transformed into middle-of-the-order hitters?

[pssst]Cliff Lee[/pssst]
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Andyzipp on July 29, 2009, 10:54:24 am
[pssst]Cliff Lee[/pssst]

See, in comic books you can go panel by panel and follow the story.

On an internet forum, you'd have to scroll up.  Too much work.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Lurch on July 29, 2009, 12:36:51 pm
Obviously I'm referring to the front of our rotation, dipshit.

Obviously he was making a joke, dipshit.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Duder on July 29, 2009, 01:30:41 pm
Obviously he was making a joke, dipshit.

I thought jokes were supposed to be funny?
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Lurch on July 29, 2009, 01:34:13 pm
I thought jokes were supposed to be funny?

Setting pretty high standards, aren't you?
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Noe on July 29, 2009, 01:37:03 pm
I thought jokes were supposed to be funny?

Welcome to SpikesnStars.com!
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: chuck on July 29, 2009, 01:47:08 pm
I thought jokes were supposed to be funny?

I thought a period was the correct punctuation for a declarative sentence.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: MusicMan on July 29, 2009, 01:47:53 pm
I thought a period was the correct punctuation for a declarative sentence.

It's an interrogative statement, used to test knowledge.  But that's not important right now.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: VirtualBob on July 29, 2009, 01:49:45 pm
who would replace Pence? doing what? he is fungible.
Yeah, but that can be treated with Lotrimin.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: VirtualBob on July 29, 2009, 01:50:54 pm
Obviously I'm referring to the front of our rotation, dipshit.
As this was post number 100, I hearby move that we raise the bar on emerging from clarkhood to at least 150.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Gizzmonic on July 29, 2009, 02:25:13 pm
Obviously I'm referring to the front of our rotation, dipshit.

You're being very un-dude right now.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: moriartp on July 29, 2009, 02:28:06 pm
You're being very un-dude right now.


He does not abide.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: Jose Cruz III on July 29, 2009, 06:35:16 pm
You would not move Pence for last year's Cy Young winner, who'd be under contract through next season for $9 million?
Seeing how they added a pretty decent outfielder I would have done it. But seeing what they got for him I am not sure the Astros would have had to give them Pence.
Title: Re: #3-5 Starters
Post by: das on July 30, 2009, 08:25:21 am
It's an interrogative statement, used to test knowledge.  But that's not important right now.
Nominated.  I love this place.