Co-Ards @ Astros August 16, 2016

[Mr. Happy]

Your lineups for tonight's tilt:

Cardinals

LFTommy Pham (R)
RFS. Piscotty (R)
2BMatt Carpenter (L)
1BBrandon Moss (L)
CYadier Molina (R)
DHJhonny Peralta (R)
3BJedd Gyorko (R)
CFRandal Grichuk (R)
SSGreg Garcia (L)

STL: Jaime Garcia (L)  (9-8, 3.93)

Astros

RF George Springer (R)
3B Alex Bregman (R)
2B Jose Altuve (R)
SS Carlos Correa (R)
1B Marwin Gonzalez (S)
DH Evan Gattis (R)
LF T. Hernandez (R)
C Jason Castro (L)
CF Jake Marisnick (R)

HOU: Dallas Keuchel (L)  (7-11, 4.56)

[Jacksonian]

Your lineups for tonight's tilt:

Astros

RF George Springer (R)
3B Alex Bregman (R)
2B Jose Altuve (R)
SS Carlos Correa (R)
1B Marwin Gonzalez (S)
DH Evan Gattis (R)
LF T. Hernandez (R)
C Jason Castro (L)
CF Jake Marisnick (R)

HOU: Dallas Keuchel (L)  (7-11, 4.56)

I like this outfield and the batting order is Hernandez can hit a little.

[jbm]

Is Ashby on vacation or have they just wised up?

Baseball, mediocre or better, is more enjoyable with Blum.

[MikeyBoy]

Keuchel has to get off the middle of the plate. Fuck.

[Jacksonian]

Keuchel has to get off the middle of the plate. Fuck.

He's been there most of the season.

[HudsonHawk]

T1:

Pham doubles to LCF
Piscotty strikes out looking
Carpenter singles to RF, Pham to 3B
Moss hits double play ball to 2B, but the shift...single to CF, Pham scores, Carpenter to 3B
Molina hits double play ball to 2B, but the shift...Altuve runs it down, but can only go to 1B, Carpenter scores, Moss to 2B
Peralta strikes out looking

Shift fucks em again...2-0 Cardinals

[HudsonHawk]

Keuchel has to get off the middle of the plate. Fuck.

It'd be helpful if the Astros didn't insist on leaving half the fucking infield uncovered for a groundball pitcher.

[HudsonHawk]

Bregman!!!

First big league tater ties it up at 2-2

[austro]

Bregman has really started to look a lot more comfortable in the last 7 days or so, and seems very well-suited to that #2 spot.

[HudsonHawk]

B1:

Springer hit by pitch
Springer moves to 2B on a wild pitch as Molina gives it a token "ole" wave
Bregman homers to RF, Springer scores
Altuve singles to LF
Altuve moves to 2B on a TE-1 on a pickoff attempt
Correa...battling...full count...finally works a walk
Marwin sac bunt...1-3, Altuve to 3B, Correa to 2B...would have been safe if he hadn't been jogging down the line
Gattis takes a cookie then pops out F3 in foul ground on a ball in the dirt
Hernandez lines out to CF

Astros tie it up, but squander a big opportunity...2-2 after one.

[HudsonHawk]

T2:

Gyorko grounds out 5-3 on the first pitch...nice barehanded pickup by Bregman
Grichuck flies out F7
Garcia strikes out looking

2-2

[HudsonHawk]

Bases juiced with one out for Altuve and he hacks at the fist pitch at his ankles and pops it up

[HudsonHawk]

B2:

Castro...3-0...3-1...3-2...draws a leadoff walk
Marisnick chops one back to the mound, reaches on a FC, Castro out 1-6
Springer walks, Marisnick to 2B
Bregman check swings chops one over the mound, SS can't pick it up...E-6...Marisnick to 3B, Springer to 2B
Altuve pops up on the first pitch..IFF...F6
Correa...3-0...3-1...3-2...takes a hanging curve right over the center of the plate

Astros step on their dicks again...leave the bases loaded

2-2

[HudsonHawk]

T3:

Pham strikes out looking
Piscotty pops out F6 on the first pitch
Carpenter bounces back to the mound...1-3

2-2

[HudsonHawk]

Marwin!!!

3-2 Astros

[HudsonHawk]

B3:

Marwin homers to LF
Gattis flies out F9 on the first pitch
Hernandez flies out F9
Castro taps in front of the plate on the first pitch...2-3

But the Astros grab a 3-2 lead after three

[MikeyBoy]

Great interview with AE.

[WVastro]

Great interview with AE.

He played one hell of a shortstop. I'm glad he's still in the system, I'd guess he's equally as good a teacher.

[HudsonHawk]

T4:

Moss grounds out 4-3
Molina grounds out 5-3
Peralta strikes out swinging

3-2 Astros

[chuck]

These are not the Cardinals I remember.

[austro]

999 for Altuve!

[HudsonHawk]

Altuve with an RBI single for his 999th hit...

[austro]

These are not the Cardinals I remember.

Yeah, this is a pretty sloppy defense.

[HudsonHawk]

B4:

Marisnick doubles down the LF line
Springer grounds out 6-3
Bregman...0-2...1-2...2-2...3-2...flies out F9, Marisnick tags and moves to 3B
Altuve singles to RF, Marisnick scores
Correa grounds into FC, Altuve out 4U

4-2 Astros

[HudsonHawk]

And a 2-out, 2-strike home run ties it up at 4-4

[HudsonHawk]

T5:

Gyorko strikes out swinging
Grichuck doubles to LF...good throw gets him easily at 2B, but Hernandez gagged it a little
Garcia grounds out 4-3, Grichuck to 3B
Pham...3-0...3-1...3-2...homers to RF, Grichuck scores
Piscotty strikes out looking

But the Cards tie it up...4-4

[MusicMan]

Dallas threw 4 straight belt-high or higher to Pham. Probably the shift's fault.


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[HudsonHawk]

Dallas threw 4 straight belt-high or higher to Pham. Probably the shift's fault.


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Have you ever made an argument without a giant strawman?

[HudsonHawk]

B5:

Marwin flies out F7
Gattis flies out F7
Hernandez strikes out swinging

4-4 after five

[HudsonHawk]

Keuchel throwing puss.  That's all for him...runners at the corner with nobody out in the 6th, as Neshek in

[MusicMan]

FACT: the Golden State Warriors led the NBA Finals 3-1, then decided to employ an infield shift against LeBron James. They haven't won since.


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[MusicMan]

Have you ever made an argument without a giant strawman?

I sometimes work in origami.


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[AstroNut]

Minute Maid sounds like the Cards are at home ? WTF

[MrKnuckleball]

Minute Maid sounds like the Cards are at home ? WTF

They have quite a fan base. A big baseball city.

[hostros7]

Keuchel throwing puss.  That's all for him...runners at the corner with nobody out in the 6th, as Neshek in

At this point, the most difficult part to comprehend is how consistently lights out he was last year.

[austro]

At this point, the most difficult part to comprehend is how consistently lights out he was last year.

I'm trying to figure out if this is an off year, or if last year was.

[HudsonHawk]

8-4 Cardinals...one out in the 6th...

[Col. Sphinx Drummond]

Kick that motherfucker out of the ballpark! Asshole!

[Jacksonian]

I'm trying to figure out if this is an off year, or if last year was.

He was also very good in 2014.

[HudsonHawk]

T6:

Carpenter draws a leadoff walk
Moss singles to RF, Carpenter to 3B

Keuchek out, Neshek in

Molina grounds out 3U, Carpenter scores, Moss to 2B
Peralta singles to CF, Moss to 3B
Gyorko crushes a home run to deep LCF...Moss scores, Peralta scores
Grichuk pops down RF line, fan reaches out and takes it away from Springer...strikes out swinging anyway
Garcia strikes out swinging

8-4 Cardinals

[hostros7]

Castro blasted that one.


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[MrKnuckleball]

Castro hit one that is still flying, jesus.

[HudsonHawk]

Castro blasted that one.


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Carlos Correa simply willed that home run.

[MrKnuckleball]

What a horrible call on Bregman wow.

[hostros7]

They have quite a fan base. A big baseball city.

St. Louis being a (self proclaimed) "big baseball city" has very little to do with the organization having a broad national following.

[HudsonHawk]

B6:

Castro homers to deep in the upper deck in RCF, in awe of Carlos Correa's presence and extra large penis

That's it for Garcia, Reyes in

Marisnick carved up on strikes, Carlos Correa must have been in the head during that at bat and couldn't use his powers
Springer draws a walk as Correa zips up
Bregman strikes out looking at a pitch in his eyes..no word on Correa's penis
Altuve lines to RF, denying Carlos Correa tying up the game with his inevitable 700-ft home run

8-5

[MrKnuckleball]

St. Louis being a (self proclaimed) "big baseball city" has very little to do with the organization having a broad national following.

Ok!

[juliogotay]

Ok!

The Cards relationship with Houston goes back to the Houston Buffs being a minor league affiliate of the Cards for years.

[HudsonHawk]

The Cards relationship with Houston goes back to the Houston Buffs being a minor league affiliate of the Cards for years.

Not to mention that the Cardinals have been very good for a very long time.  Though that will all change now that Carlos Correa has been born.

[AstroNut]

The Cardinals are/was a hated rival...fuck them. I think it is embarrassing to be out cheered at MM

[HudsonHawk]

T7:

Devenski in...

Pham strikes out looking
Piscotty grounds out 6-3 on the greatest routine play in baseball history
Carpenter strikes out looking, thinking about Carlos Correa and fearing for his at bat

8-5 still

[HudsonHawk]

B7:

Correa...who was player of the week, but should be been player of the century...all centuries...chops a magical ball right past a shifted first baseman...oh the irony, he wrote...
Marwin...hitting left handed in honor of Carlos Correa's great, great uncle...grounds into FC, the Great Correa is unceremoniously put out 6-4, and women everywhere vow to never eat again
Gattis strikes out swinging...likely because he doubts Carlos Correa
Gonzalez moves to 2B on a wild pitch, another "ole" by Molina, who doesn't appear to be really trying
Reed, pinch hitting for Hernandez...strikes out swinging because he's got a really, really slow bat...which has nothing to do with Carlos Correa's magnificicence. 

8-5

[hostros7]

The Cards relationship with Houston goes back to the Houston Buffs being a minor league affiliate of the Cards for years.

Their radio feed was broadcast across much of the southeast during the childhood years of the boomers before the braves moved to Atlanta. A lot of exposure and a lot of winning builds a following.

[MusicMan]

If the French had bothered to consult with Carlos Correa, he would have pointed out that the Maginot Line included a shift.


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[hostros7]

B7:


Reed, pinch hitting for Hernandez...strikes out swinging because he's got a really, really slow bat...which has nothing to do with Carlos Correa's magnificicence. 

8-5

I would consider sending him down when Yuli comes up and tell him that the team expects him to be a long term contributor but his success may hinge on him coming to camp next season in the best shape of his life and stress the importance of focusing on that for the next six or so months.

[HudsonHawk]

T8:

Moss strikes out swinging
Molina flies out F8 on the hill
Peralta grounds out 5-3

8-5

[HudsonHawk]

I would consider sending him down when Yuli comes up and tell him that the team expects him to be a long term contributor but his success may hinge on him coming to camp next season in the best shape of his life and stress the importance of focusing on that for the next six or so months.

I don't think Reed's problem is his weight.  You don't have to be skinny to swing the bat with authority. 

[hostros7]

If the French had bothered to consult with Carlos Correa, he would have pointed out that the Maginot Line included a shift.


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Fitting because the Astros have represented the proverbial Alsace-Lorraine of the MLB

[MusicMan]

Fitting because the Astros have represented the proverbial Alsace-Lorraine of the MLB

Pangaea was perfectly fine until those fucking plates shifted.


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[HudsonHawk]

B8:

Duke in for the Cardinals

Castro strikes out swinging
Marisnick grounds out 4-3
Springer takes a cookie right down the middle...he's no Carlos Correa

to the 9th...8-5 Cardinals

[hostros7]

I don't think Reed's problem is his weight.  You don't have to be skinny to swing the bat with authority.

I agree that fitness doesn't equate to bat speed, but he looks overmatched due to that   slow bat speed. He's obviously a great athlete and could benefit from more time in the gym and cage. He's not going to be able to rely on hitting fat (no pun intended) pitches and driving them out. He may never take the next step to become a consistent big league power hitter, but I'd try to use it to motivate him to improve as a player rather than get discouraged by his major league futility. The coaches who work with him every day likely know best how to manage him and try to get the most out of him though and can work to make adjustments in the offseason if that's all he needs to improve.

[HudsonHawk]

T9:

Giles in

Jerko strikes out looking
Grichuk doubles to LF, Marisnick bobbles it and Grichuk gets to 3B...inexplicably scored a triple
Garcia...infield in, including the Great Correa...strikes out swinging
Pham strikes out swinging

One more chance...Astros chasing three runs

[The Third Man]

I think Giles has electrifying stuff, but I wish he could get through an inning without reminding me of the Russian roulette scene from "The Deer Hunter" every time.

[juliogotay]

Their radio feed was broadcast across much of the southeast during the childhood years of the boomers before the braves moved to Atlanta. A lot of exposure and a lot of winning builds a following.

there was a time when the Cards were the only team west of the Mississippi.

[HudsonHawk]

there was a time when the Cards were the only team west of the Mississippi.

That was BC...Before Correa...so it doesn't count.

[WVastro]

What does Correa think about selfie sticks?

[WVastro]

Bregman reminds me of Jessie Pinkman.

[HudsonHawk]

And there's #1,000 for Altuve

[hostros7]

1000 for Altuve. Fortunately, he didn't go Full Biggio and keep running.


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[hostros7]

Bregman reminds me of Jessie Pinkman.

CPN Cook

[WVastro]

CPN Cook

Chili P!

[HudsonHawk]

B9:

Oh in to try to close it out

Bregman strikes out looking
Altuve singles to LF, number 1,000
Correa...allowing Altuve to share his aura...briefly...with the greatest three pitch strikeout in baseball history...Donald Trump says he will make Correa great again
Marwin strikes out swinging at a pitch in the dirt, obviously distraught about Correa.

Astros lose, and everyone is to blame except the Great Correa.  Which goes without saying.

[WVastro]

Well HH... At least you're free to travel whenever you need to. No need to put your life on hold to get the Astros in the playoffs.

[juliogotay]

If I had to put a finger on the one difference between this year's Astros and last years' it would be the performance by Keuchel.
If I"m Luhnow I'm thinking my off-season goals are the bottom half of the lineup and the top of the rotation.

[WVastro]

If I had to put a finger on the one difference between this year's Astros and last years' it would be the performance by Keuchel.

And a ten game winning streak.

[HudsonHawk]

Well HH... At least you're free to travel whenever you need to. No need to put your life on hold to get the Astros in the playoffs.

I tried shifting the PBP responsibilities to you guys, but you stepped on your collective dick.  It may now be too late

[WVastro]

I tried shifting the PBP responsibilities to you guys, but you stepped on your collective dick.  It may now be too late

Agreed. My pbp would be of the late Milo vintage.

"Oh man that sucked"

"Hell yeah"

"Fucking ump! I'm going to bed..."

[juliogotay]

And a ten game winning streak.

they had a nice run there for two months. Had a 10/12  IIRC.

[MusicMan]

If I had to put a finger on the one difference between this year's Astros and last years' it would be the performance by Keuchel.

I think I'm repeating myself from earlier in the season, but if you had to pick one thing before the season that would sink this team, Keuchel going in the shitter would have been at the top of the list.


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[pots]

At this point in the season last year the Astros were 16-8 when Keuchel started.  This year they are 10-14.  Yeah that pretty much will do it.

As for those thinking top of the rotation help this off season, Fister is possibly the #1 option this year on the free agent market.  There isn't a single top of the rotation guy on the market this year.  Going to be a plethora of overpaid pitchers this offseason. 

I'd say a qualifying offer to Fister is a no-brainer at this point.  He'd be a fool to accept it.

[juliogotay]

Bregmans' 1st 10 games and his last 10 games:     .053/.143/.053
                                                                                         .295/.333/.477

[jbm]

Each time he appears to figure it out, a regression seems to follow.  With each regression, the probability of seeing Cy Keuchel (or even a TOR Keuchel) in the future decreases, at least in my mind.  Maybe I'm just being pessimistic, but if his future is as a replacement level arm, it's a big hole to patch.

It seems like the lineup looks damn promising for the near future, with a lot of certainty in that evaluation.  However, while I can imagine a solid pitching staff in the near future, the certainty is pretty low.   

[pots]

He threw a combined 246 innings between the regular season and post season last year.  Any benefit to shutting him down early this year if they are out of it by September?

[Jacksonian]

He threw a combined 246 innings between the regular season and post season last year.  Any benefit to shutting him down early this year if they are out of it by September?

Unless he's injured what would be the point?

[pots]

Unless he's injured what would be the point?

This is what I'm asking.  If there is any point.   

[Mr. Happy]

Each time he appears to figure it out, a regression seems to follow.  With each regression, the probability of seeing Cy Keuchel (or even a TOR Keuchel) in the future decreases, at least in my mind.  Maybe I'm just being pessimistic, but if his future is as a replacement level arm, it's a big hole to patch.

It seems like the lineup looks damn promising for the near future, with a lot of certainty in that evaluation.  However, while I can imagine a solid pitching staff in the near future, the certainty is pretty low.

Keuchel's stuff is just not plus stuff. He has to have pinpoint command in order to be effective. He had that in 2014 and even more in 2015. However, he's had very inconsistent command this season, which explains his problem. Simply put, his margin of error is very small, and he';s found error far more this season.

[jbm]

Keuchel's stuff is just not plus stuff. He has to have pinpoint command in order to be effective. He had that in 2014 and even more in 2015. However, he's had very inconsistent command this season, which explains his problem. Simply put, his margin of error is very small, and he';s found error far more this season.

I'm not saying you are wrong, cause I don't know, and while I agree that Keuchel operates on a margin, I'm not sold that it is just a command issue.  My observation is that he used to throw his sinker early in counts and get a lot of ground outs or get ahead in the count.  Now, he is not getting those ground outs as the sinker is getting squared more frequently.  This has led to him trying to finesse the zone and rely on his change and breaking ball.  This has also upped his pitch counts and led him to look more like a junk baller than a guy who works off his sinker.  In sum, I wonder if it is just that his sinker is no longer effective and not that he has lost pinpoint command.

[Jacksonian]

I'm not saying you are wrong, cause I don't know, and while I agree that Keuchel operates on a margin, I'm not sold that it is just a command issue.  My observation is that he used to throw his sinker early in counts and get a lot of ground outs or get ahead in the count.  Now, he is not getting those ground outs as the sinker is getting squared more frequently.  This has led to him trying to finesse the zone and rely on his change and breaking ball.  This has also upped his pitch counts and led him to look more like a junk baller than a guy who works off his sinker.  In sum, I wonder if it is just that his sinker is no longer effective and not that he has lost pinpoint command.

Far more pitches this year are up.  The last two years he worked constantly on and off the corners.  He hits the edges of the plate but has left many more pitches between the thighs and belt this year.  Those are the pitches getting hammered and that's the inconsistency in his command because you can be sure he does not want to pitch belt high anywhere near the plate.

[MikeyBoy]

I'm not saying you are wrong, cause I don't know, and while I agree that Keuchel operates on a margin, I'm not sold that it is just a command issue.  My observation is that he used to throw his sinker early in counts and get a lot of ground outs or get ahead in the count.  Now, he is not getting those ground outs as the sinker is getting squared more frequently.  This has led to him trying to finesse the zone and rely on his change and breaking ball.  This has also upped his pitch counts and led him to look more like a junk baller than a guy who works off his sinker.  In sum, I wonder if it is just that his sinker is no longer effective and not that he has lost pinpoint command.

His sinker is flat which is mostly what's getting hammered. Probably due to something mechanical, i.e. arm slot/separation timing/etc.

[HudsonHawk]

His sinker is flat which is mostly what's getting hammered. Probably due to something mechanical, i.e. arm slot/separation timing/etc.

Maybe he's too worried about his arm slot/separation timing to just "see the mitt, hit the mitt". 

[homer]

Maybe he's too worried about his arm slot/separation timing to just "see the mitt, hit the mitt". 

So... not trusting his stuff?

[HudsonHawk]

So... not trusting his stuff?

His pronation coefficient must be down by at least 12 parsecs. 

Seriously...he's not hitting spots, and there could be lots of reasons for that.  Personally, I've thought for a while he's injured, at least somewhat.  He just looks like he's really laboring, not throwing free and easy.  But some of the diagnosis sounds like some of the crap that 12-year old "select" coaches sell to delusional parents when they want more money.  "For $1,000 worth of lessons, I can improve his separation timing by 3-5%..."

[JimR]

what the fuck is separation timing?

[MikeyBoy]

Seriously...he's not hitting spots, and there could be lots of reasons for that. 

Right...like something mechanical, which is what I was pointing out. He has been struggling since April, I would think if he was dealing with an injury, it would have surfaced by now.

[MikeyBoy]

what the fuck is separation timing?

Something I read about on the internet.

[jbm]

His pronation coefficient must be down by at least 12 parsecs. 

Seriously...he's not hitting spots, and there could be lots of reasons for that.  Personally, I've thought for a while he's injured, at least somewhat.  He just looks like he's really laboring, not throwing free and easy.  But some of the diagnosis sounds like some of the crap that 12-year old "select" coaches sell to delusional parents when they want more money.  "For $1,000 worth of lessons, I can improve his separation timing by 3-5%..."

So, is this what a "giant strawman" is?  I read if from you earlier in the thread? 

[HudsonHawk]

Right...like something mechanical, which is what I was pointing out. He has been struggling since April, I would think if he was dealing with an injury, it would have surfaced by now.

Unless he's trying to play through it.  Players do that all the time. 

[HudsonHawk]

So, is this what a "giant strawman" is?  I read if from you earlier in the thread?

No. 

[homer]

Right...like something mechanical, which is what I was pointing out. He has been struggling since April, I would think if he was dealing with an injury, it would have surfaced by now.

Ground Control does have a top notch medical team. Intriguing.

[chuck]

Ground Control does have a top notch medical team. Intriguing.

But they're busy trying to establish best practices on an ear cyst.

[juliogotay]

what the fuck is separation timing?

this is what I practice when the wife has girlfriends coming over for a glass of wine.