Astros season over, per BP

[Bench]

BP released their win/loss projections for the 2009 season.

Coming in second to last in the NL Central, with the second least amount of runs scored in the league, your 2009 Astros with a record of 66-96.

I think I'll take the over.

[VirtualBob]

BP released their win/loss projections for the 2009 season.

Coming in second to last in the NL Central, with the second least amount of runs scored in the league, your 2009 Astros with a record of 66-96.

I think I'll take the over.

Noe, Why does PECOTA have the Astros projected to bat .256 as a team in 2009?

[Limey]

Noe, Why does PECOTA have the Astros projected to bat .256 as a team in 2009?

They should stick to campaigning against people wearing fur.

[Mr. Happy]

BP released their win/loss projections for the 2009 season.

Coming in second to last in the NL Central, with the second least amount of runs scored in the league, your 2009 Astros with a record of 66-96.

I think I'll take the over.

That's why you play the games.

[Noe]

Noe, Why does PECOTA have the Astros projected to bat .256 as a team in 2009?

Pete Cota is on record that he hates the Astros.   Fact.

[BUWebguy]

Just for kicks, I compared last year's BP projection to the final standings:

Code: [Select]

AL East       Proj. Actual Off by:
New York Yankees      96-66 89-73 7
Boston Red Sox        93-69 95-67 2
Toronto Blue Jays     83-79 86-76 3
Tampa Bay Rays        82-80 97-65 15
Baltimore Orioles     69-93 68-93 0.5

AL Central
Cleveland Indians     89-73 81-81 8
Detroit Tigers        89-73 74-88 15
Chicago White Sox     77-85 88-74 11.5
Minnesota Twins       74-88 88-74 14
Kansas City Royals    71-91 75-87 4

AL West
Los Angeles Angels    89-73 100-62 11
Oakland Athletics     78-84 75-86 2.5
Texas Rangers         74-88 79-83 5
Seattle Mariners      73-89 61-101 12


NL East
New York Mets         96-66 89-73 7
Atlanta Braves        86-76 72-90 14
Philadelphia Phillies 84-78 92-70 8
Florida Marlins       76-86 84-77 8.5
Washington Nationals  72-90 59-102 12.5

NL Central
Chicago Cubs          89-73 97-64 8.5
Milwaukee Brewers     87-75 90-72 3
Cincinnati Reds       79-83 74-88 5
Houston Astros        74-88 86-75 12.5
St. Louis Cardinals   72-90 86-76 14
Pittsburgh Pirates    71-91 67-95 4

NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks  86-76 82-80 4
Los Angeles Dodgers   86-76 84-78 2
San Diego Padres      83-79 63-99 20
Colorado Rockies      82-80 74-88 8
San Francisco Giants  72-90 72-90 0

[matadorph]

Pete Cota is on record that he hates the Astros.   Fact.

Matt A. Dorph is on record that he hates Nate Silver.

His fawning acolytes at BP and fivethirtyeight vastly overrate the self-impressed wunderkind's predictive abilities.

[matadorph]

Just for kicks, I compared last year's BP projection to the final standings

Thank you. I will save this for future reference.

[hubert]

RS 708, 256/318/404
It looks awful, but it could be the reality. We scored 712 runs, hit 263/323/415 last year.
Replace Wiggy with Blum/Boone, that projection is kind enough.
We may have healthier Matsui and Lee, improving Bourn and Pence and ... but I could take those numbers.

RA 851 This is crazy.
What is the difference between 08 and 09 pitching staff?
We have Hampton/else instead of Chacon/Wolf/else in one rotation spot. And they just project this "almost the same" staff will lost 108 more runs.

Astros did win 86 not 74, but if we take 712 RS/743 RA to Pythagorean, we won 77 games. BP didn't do a bad projection about Astros mathematically last year.

[matadorph]

Astros did win 86 not 74, but if we take 712 RS/743 RA to Pythagorean, we won 77 games. BP didn't do a bad projection about Astros mathematically last year.

See, here's the thing. Division titles aren't won and lost on how many wins pythag expects. They're won on actual wins.

[Reuben]

See, here's the thing. Division titles aren't won and lost on how many wins pythag expects. They're won on actual wins.

Teams without a lot of payroll flexibility, like the Astros, also have a lot of guys like Runelvys Hernandez, Cassel, Backe, Paronto, etc. to leave out there in blowouts... if a team has a few more mega-blowouts than the average team, I'll bet that can screw with Pythagoras' projections a little bit. Which is not to say that I am really ever concerned about what BP projects for the Astros' near or long-term future.

[hubert]

See, here's the thing. Division titles aren't won and lost on how many wins pythag expects. They're won on actual wins.

You are right. But they are doing math, and mathematically correct is their concern.
Actually who care those math when we start playing ball.

[matadorph]

You are right. But they are doing math, and mathematically correct is their concern.
Actually who care those math when we start playing ball.

I don't subscribe to BP so I might be wrong, but to my recollection their annual Astros predictions are almost never correct. I subscribe to the theory that they have a hard-on for Astros bashing because the team's performance undermines the product BP peddles.

[sporadic]

You are right. But they are doing math, and mathematically correct is their concern.
Actually who care those math when we start playing ball.

Seems you are quite good at math...but may I suggest you stop skipping english?

[JaneDoe]

Actually who care those math when we start playing ball.

Huh?

[Ty in Tampa]

I don't subscribe to BP so I might be wrong, but to my recollection their annual Astros predictions are almost never correct. I subscribe to the theory that they have a hard-on for Astros bashing because the team's performance undermines the product BP peddles.

Looking at the numbers compiled above, they're almost never correct about most teams.

[VirtualBob]

RS 708, 256/318/404
It looks awful, but it could be the reality. We scored 712 runs, hit 263/323/415 last year.
Replace Wiggy with Blum/Boone, that projection is kind enough.
We may have healthier Matsui and Lee, improving Bourn and Pence and ... but I could take those numbers.

RA 851 This is crazy.
What is the difference between 08 and 09 pitching staff?
We have Hampton/else instead of Chacon/Wolf/else in one rotation spot. And they just project this "almost the same" staff will lost 108 more runs.

Astros did win 86 not 74, but if we take 712 RS/743 RA to Pythagorean, we won 77 games. BP didn't do a bad projection about Astros mathematically last year.

You're entitled to your perspective, but I like baseball *a lot* better than math.  Waaayyy more interesting and complex.

[Reuben]

Seems you are quite good at math...but may I suggest you stop skipping english?

I could be wrong, but I'm guessing Hubert has much better command of English than many here (myself included) do of his 1st language...

[TheWizard]

You're entitled to your perspective, but I like baseball *a lot* better than math.  Waaayyy more interesting and complex.

You deserve to get a Pi thrown in your face for that comment.

[BUWebguy]

I don't subscribe to BP so I might be wrong, but to my recollection their annual Astros predictions are almost never correct. I subscribe to the theory that they have a hard-on for Astros bashing because the team's performance undermines the product BP peddles.

I do subscribe, and yes, they generally aren't real high on the Astros; I won't try and guess why. But I don't think that factors in with these projections, as (for better or worse) they are all based on formulas and numbers, with little to no subjective input.

[Arky Vaughan]

The projections are just mathematical constructs. Nobody's saying don't play the season because of them.

[MRaup]

I do subscribe, and yes, they generally aren't real high on the Astros; I won't try and guess why. But I don't think that factors in with these projections, as (for better or worse) they are all based on formulas and numbers, with little to no subjective input.

BP hates the Astros regardless of what the formulas say. Their writers went well above and beyond the call of duty to slag the Astro front office every chance they got.

[JimR]

BP hates the Astros regardless of what the formulas say. Their writers went well above and beyond the call of duty to slag the Astro front office every chance they got.

and they do every year.

[Uncle Charlie]

The projections are just mathematical constructs. Nobody's saying don't play the season because of them.

Not only are the mathematical constructs, but they are thousands of iterations of that constuct, which gives a "mean" result.  Since the league doesn't play thousands of seasons at the same time and with so many factors going into the mathematics of the results, they are fairly useless.  What IS useful in the runs are the boudries of those runs.  One of the seasons in the run will likely mimic the real season played.  It's anybody's guess which one.

[subnuclear]

Not only are the mathematical constructs, but they are thousands of iterations of that constuct, which gives a "mean" result.  Since the league doesn't play thousands of seasons at the same time and with so many factors going into the mathematics of the results, they are fairly useless.  What IS useful in the runs are the boudries of those runs.  One of the seasons in the run will likely mimic the real season played.  It's anybody's guess which one.

Which is the exact equivalent of saying the Astros will win 81 +/- 10 games this season every season.  Why they go through all that work is beyond me.

[Reuben]

Which is the exact equivalent of saying the Astros will win 81 +/- 10 games this season every season.  Why they go through all that work is beyond me.

Whoa, +/- 10? I'm not willing to go that far. Looking carefully at the data, I predict the Astros will win between 52 and 116 games this year.

[Duman]

I read this today and it isn't half bad.

The good guys are consistently one of the best defensive teams in the National League. For a while, that was despite Biggio's aging arm. Last year, that was despite Tejada's sudden realization of his true age. While Adam Everett is no longer turning in two-error seasons at shortstop, the defensive machine should still be oiled well.

Also, much of the difference between the NL-winning Astros and the teams that followed can be found in the shift from an emphasis on pitching to a focus on offense. This move came in response to much gnashing of fans' teeth over the inability to score in 2005, even though, with strong pitching, the Astros lost the World Series by a total of 9 runs.

Gerry Hunsicker had developed the pitching-and-defense pattern with Dierker, but his ouster allowed for the shift. Now Hunsicker has advised the Tampa Bay Rays to move to pitching-and-defense, and lo and behold! they win the AL.

[Limey]

I read this today and it isn't half bad.

Apart from that whole firing of Gerry Hunsicker who then takes TB to the WS, thing.

[BudGirl]

I read this today and it isn't half bad.

with strong pitching, the Astros lost the World Series by a total of 9 runs.

9?

Houston Astros - 3, Chicago White Sox - 5 October 22
Houston Astros - 6, Chicago White Sox - 7 October 23
Chicago White Sox - 7, Houston Astros - 5 (14 innings) October 25 
Chicago White Sox - 1, Houston Astros - 0 October 26

[MusicMan]

Wandy Rodriguez seemed to have finally put his whole game together in 2008, but road futility and injury prevented him from earning the title of "Best Astros Pitcher."

Am I missing some sort of sarcasm here?

[Duman]

That was a the part that was half bad.

[Noe]

I read this today and it isn't half bad.

He's wrong about Dierker.  Dierker is often mistaken as a pitcher friendly manager, but the reality is he was starter friendly and not very good at using his bullpen.  And he had success as a manager in the Astrodome, a place that helped such pitchers as Jose Lima become really useful starters.  What Dierker did is allow his starters to go deep into games and work out of their own jams.  But by the time the playoffs came along the only bullpen guys who had enough work during the season to help him make managerial moves were Wagner and Powell.  In terms of defense, remember it was Dierker who had a hard time figuring out what do with centerfield at the MMPUS.  He settled on the opinion that perhaps defense in CF was a bit over hyped.  His statement that he thought a good arm in CF was not needed because the area was so huge was a head scratcher.  Dierker was actually more friendly towards offense first and his boldest move was to ship out Brad Ausmus so he could promote Mitch Melusky in order to gain more offense from that position.  A miserable failure of a move.