Messages

1

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Deadline 2017

« on: July 28, 2017, 12:50:09 pm »

Good thing your speculation is as worthless as Crasnick's at this point.

Give Jerry a little more credit than that.

2

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Deadline 2017

« on: July 28, 2017, 11:45:12 am »

No.  The point of the original post was that some self-proclaimed pundit reported that other executives said that Luhnow was less willing to include top prospects.  Which is exactly what you would expect other executives to say. 

It is negotiation and anything said in public is intended to put pressure on the other side, not reveal any deep insights.

Self-proclaimed pundit?  Come on.  In addition to being Louis C.K.'s doppleganger, Crasnick's covered baseball professionally for almost 30 years, half of that with ESPN, as well as writing for Baseball America.  Regardless of what your thoughts may be on ESPN, he's one of the legitimate voices there. 

The thing about Luhnow is that while he doesn't reveal secrets, he's always been pretty honest with the media about his intentions.  If he says the club is going to be aggressive, they're aggressive.  If he says that they're looking at certain areas, those areas they've addressed or tried to address.  With the tenor of his recent statements (Crasnick's tweet just reinforces it), I'm not overly-optimistic right now that he's going to go all-out to improve the club.  I think he should go for it, but I don't know that he will. 

3

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Deadline 2017

« on: July 28, 2017, 09:39:32 am »

It is a negotiation. He would be crazy to open the talks with "Here they are. How many do you want?"

ETA:  Should have just gone "+1" on MM's post.

Right, he'd be a fool to not try to keep them.  But, realistically, he's going to have to include top prospect(s) to land the kind of players he's aiming for.  He can't offer a Jake Rodgers-type as the headliner forever.  I think the Cubs overpaid for Quintana, but that is what sellers are going to use as reference.   Anyway, I think the point of the original tweet was that Luhnow has been less willing compared to other organizations to include his top prospects, which, something will eventually have to give.   

4

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Deadline 2017

« on: July 28, 2017, 08:03:43 am »

Jerry Crasnick‏Verified account @jcrasnick 17m17 minutes ago

#Astros GM Jeff Luhnow reluctant to trade any top prospects, say rival execs. He might have to bend to push bigger deal across finish line.

Reluctant doesn't mean unwilling, though. 

5

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Deadline 2017

« on: July 26, 2017, 06:29:14 pm »

Crane has to pony up to win too.

Could be Crane's influence.  But, it seems like he's been more willing than Luhnow to push the payroll in recent years.  At the least, he's been more anxious about making trades for the now.     

6

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Deadline 2017

« on: July 26, 2017, 05:45:12 pm »

The Cardinals were mentioned as a model which he believes in-not many big trades but a solid product every year.

This is a year to make a Matt Holiday-esque trade, then.  Or, even a John Lackey trade.  Other teams will get better, we need to, as well.  If he's alluding to taking on a contract like Verlander's, I understand his reasoning.  But, he has to take advantage of what he has this season.

7

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Deadline 2017

« on: July 22, 2017, 08:32:01 am »

Cubs are looking hard at Darvish.

FWIW, Darvish can block trades to the Cubs, Indians, A's, Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, White Sox, Blue Jays, Pirates, and Rockies.   

8

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Deadline 2017

« on: July 21, 2017, 01:04:18 pm »

Cardinals trade former Astros draft prospect and Hackgate poster-child Marco Gonzales to the Mariners in exchange for minor-leaguer Tyler O'Neill.

9

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Deadline 2017

« on: July 20, 2017, 10:43:58 am »

@jonmorosi 18m18 minutes ago

Sources: While #Astros are in talks with #Athletics on Sonny Gray, they remain interested in Justin Verlander/Justin Wilson deal w/ Detroit.

10

Talk Zone / Re: Quintana is off the market

« on: July 14, 2017, 08:27:29 am »

Some of you seem to have more faith in Fiers/Musgrove/McHugh/Martes in October than I do.

Hypothetical: If DeGrom is on the market do you give up a Bregman/Tucker, Martes, Fisher, Throw-in package for him? Not sure that would even come close to the Mets' asking price, but since we're spit-balling...

I'd love to go after Stroman or Archer, and I think you gladly pay a high price for either of those guys, but I don't think either are going to be on the market for at least another two weeks, barring a disastrous second half start for their respective teams.

Difference between '04 and '05?  Offense was more dynamic in '04, but we went from Munro in the rotation to Pettitte (no guarantee any of the above-listed will be as efficient as Backe in the postseason, either). 

11

Talk Zone / Re: Quintana is off the market

« on: July 13, 2017, 02:40:01 pm »

Things can change due to trades, but is there any rotation in the AL that you think, wow the Astros are going to have to hold the other team to 3 or less runs 3/4 times a series to have a chance to advance*

*IF they make the playoffs.

Red Sox? Cleveland?

12

Talk Zone / Re: Quintana is off the market

« on: July 13, 2017, 01:36:59 pm »

From Heyman's latest:

The Astros balked at the White Sox’s asking price for Jose Quintana, and now with a limited supply of starting pitchers on the market, some Astros people are weighing whether to go after a big-time closer to augment their already strong bullpen. Word is, they’d look at Zach Britton should he ever become available. There’s been no word of a call to the Orioles yet, however.

He mentions earlier in the article that the White Sox were interested in Martes & Tucker in a package. 

I'm not a fan of the package that the Cubs gave up for Quintana, though he has appeared to have bounced back recently. 

https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/inside-baseball-al-notes-white-sox-farm-system-gets-even-better/

13

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Deadline 2017

« on: July 10, 2017, 01:09:42 pm »

Other than a lefty reliever, what is really out there on the market that would be considered "significant"?  We could use a SP but I'm not sure there are any real slam dunks out there.  This to those that pointed out what Sale might have meant to this team....  I hate to second guess, as I was scared shitless to deal what would've been needed to get him at the time.  Looking at it now though, he's still the only SP that would've really made a difference for this team right, or am I missing someone?

Lastly, what was the consensus on what we'd of had to give up to get Sale?

If we're trying to top what Boston gave up?  Correa

14

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Buies Creek Astros 2017

« on: July 06, 2017, 05:10:27 pm »

Callis took a question about Rogers in the MLB Pipeline Inbox and had this to say about his offensive improvement:

"He has cleaned up some timing issues he had in college and is doing a better job of using the entire field."

Also: 

Rogers was the best defensive catcher in the 2016 Draft and maybe the best defender at any position. He's a quality receiver with a strong arm and a quick transfer... but he's so good behind the plate that he'll be a big league regular if he's passable offensively.

15

Talk Zone / Re: The Pen

« on: June 24, 2017, 07:51:26 am »

I'm thinking it could be Musgrove going down

That's an option.

16

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2017 Draft

« on: June 13, 2017, 03:35:48 pm »

Second year in a row that the Astros selected the NCAA leader in home runs. Last year they took Spencer Johnson in the 16th round after he led D1 with 24 home runs for Missouri State. Johnson is currently struggling at BC (just 21 games however).

Third time in 4 years (Reed).

17

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2017 Draft

« on: June 12, 2017, 08:12:30 pm »

John Manuel from BA had some encouraging things to say (from a game writeup):

North Carolina has had its share of ace pitchers in the past dozen seasons, from 2006 College Player of the Year Andrew Miller through future big leaguers such as Matt Harvey, Daniel Bard and Adam Warren, right on through deft college Friday starters such as Kent Emanuel and Zac Gallen.

J.B. Bukauskas has a chance to be as good, or even better, than any of them.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/j-b-bukauskas-continues-to-roll-north-carolina-tar-heels-baseball/#YR0zh7alHPhzjwij.97

18

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2017 Draft

« on: June 12, 2017, 07:50:41 pm »

Somebody please tell me if I'm supposed to be happy or sad about this pick.

I'm good with it.  Throws in the mid-90's (and holds it), slider that gets some 80 grades, making progress with his changeup.

19

Talk Zone / Re: Martes has been called up

« on: June 08, 2017, 01:14:01 pm »

Considering he got pulled from his expected start last night at about the same time Keuchel got scratched, I figured it was coming but couldn't get any note about it.

They still haven't said much other than Hinch saying Keuchel had "lost weight and didn't look good."  They're usually a little more transparent, citing "flu-like symptoms" or something along those lines when a player is scratched.

ETA:  Keuchel to the 10-day DL after lingering issues with his neck (sent to Houston for evaluation).  McHugh transferred to 60-day DL.

20

Talk Zone / Re: 2017 team

« on: May 30, 2017, 07:15:50 am »

Jankowski down, Paulino up:

@jakemkaplan

David Paulino was scratched from his scheduled start tonight in AAA. Looks like he will be the corresponding move for Jankowski's demotion.

21

Beer and Queso / Re: Roger Angell on "Most Important" Vote of His Lifetime

« on: May 24, 2017, 12:06:21 pm »

Back in the world of real news, the Trump budget, released yesterday, relies upon a $2 trillion math/logic error to work.  That's trillion with a "T".  Times two.

This is not normal.

That's bad even by Bobby Jindal's standards.  (Warning: Grover Norquist sighting)

22

Talk Zone / Re: Rangers

« on: May 18, 2017, 07:58:02 am »

I do too, but I do not want them on any kind of a roll which keeps us from pulling away. Tough homestand coming up.

That, and they don't have to win the division to make the playoffs.  At this point, they're only 1 game back of the second WC spot. 

23

The Championship Season Game Zone 2017 / Re: stRangers @ Astros May 1, 2017

« on: May 02, 2017, 08:31:54 am »

Napoli, on the McCullers pitch behind him that led to the benches clearing:

"Obviously, I didn't like it," Napoli said. "I've been in the game a long time. I understand how things work. Two of their guys get hit, but all he has to do is put it in my hip and I run down to first base. No one likes 95 [mph] behind their back."

For those who have more knowledge of such things, why is it better to be hit by a pitch than have a pitch not hit you, especially one that is not flying by your head? 

24

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2017 Draft

« on: April 25, 2017, 12:02:27 pm »

With less than 2 months to D-Day, BA with their 1st* mock draft:

15. Astros

South Carolina’s Clarke Schmidt has a high floor as a potential No. 4 starter with a hard sinker up to 96 mph. At this point, with Romero gone**, he looks like the best college arm on the board.

Pick: Clarke Schmidt, rhp, South Carolina

*technically it's their 2nd but their 1st was only for the top ten picks.
**despite his off the field issues, BA has Seth Romero going at #13 to the Marlins.

Looks doubtful now.  The young RHP has a torn UCL and will miss the rest of the season.

25

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Buies Creek Astros 2017

« on: April 17, 2017, 12:42:09 pm »

It is completely just a hunch, but I think Tucker is the guy the Astros really don't want to trade. I think they love Martes' potential but probably view him as somewhat of a risk. Tucker is ticking all the boxes of what you want to see from a future middle-of-the-order hitter, and they don't have anyone else in the system with as much potential for that.

I'd hate to get rid of either, though I think one, or both, will be gone this summer.  Fortunately, if the club does trade Tucker, they still have a young core in place to ease some of the sting. 

26

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Buies Creek Astros 2017

« on: April 17, 2017, 09:55:50 am »

Keep in mind Tucker is not adjusting to living in a different culture with a different language. I, too, would not be surprised to see him at AAA some time next year. Maybe even a September call-up to ML in '18.

Different culture, yes, but language wasn't a barrier for Carlos.  One of the many impressive things about him is that he decided as a 9-year old that learning English would help him realize his dream of playing in the MLB and began taking extra English classes so he would be bilingual.  As a 9-year old. 

As for Tucker, I agree with the timeline.  There isn't much of a reason to rush him, but if he continues to outplay his competition, I doubt they'll hold him back, either.  Granted, he isn't traded mid-season.     

27

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi 2017

« on: April 13, 2017, 09:59:54 am »

After a couple of excellent outings, Kevin Comer has been bumped up to Fresno.

Being replaced by Riley Ferrell.

28

Talk Zone / Re: Good ESPN Article on the Astros

« on: April 05, 2017, 01:08:16 pm »

My nit to pick is that I want both this and the Chronicle to stop referring to the "core four". The Yankees basically retired that term.

Then don't read this article.

29

Talk Zone / Re: Race for the Lid!!!

« on: April 04, 2017, 10:02:01 am »

90

30

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Rumors

« on: March 29, 2017, 01:16:18 pm »

C

why are the Astros the only club associated with Quintana? And if Luhnow was inclined to pay the asking wouldn't he do it now to have the guy all year long rather than a couple of months?

They're not.  They're the club who appears to be the most logical destination (they have the prospects, need, and interest), but there are others.  Off the top of my head, the Braves and Pirates have also been mentioned multiple times. 

31

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Rumors

« on: March 29, 2017, 01:13:29 pm »

Makes little sense to trade Musgrove for a starter.  I'd give even odds that he is one of the top three starters in the rotation this year.

Even if that starter is a significant upgrade over Musgrove (barring injury)?  I'm not in a rush to get rid of Musgrove, but he's not irreplaceable, either.   

32

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Rumors

« on: March 28, 2017, 04:07:31 pm »

Doesn't seem like folks are interested in the MLB ready guys, they want Martes, Kyle Tucker and more.  At least that is what I recall reading.

Musgrove has been mentioned, but not as a headliner.

33

Talk Zone / Re: Astros in WBC 2017

« on: March 23, 2017, 01:17:01 pm »

Good for them.  That was fun and all but when do they get back into ST games?  Bregman especially.  Hopefully by Saturday at the latest.

It will be interesting to see how the MLB WBC participants fare against the rest of the MLB players that are into the last 10 days of ST so are getting very close to gameday ready.

Bregman to jump back in the ST lineup on Friday after his stint not playing in the WBC.  Hinch had this to say:

Naturally, he'll face Syndergaard on Friday.

34

Talk Zone / Re: Astros in WBC 2017

« on: March 22, 2017, 12:51:32 pm »

Bregman to jump back in the ST lineup on Friday after his stint not playing in the WBC.  Hinch had this to say:

"He's ready to go," Hinch said. "There's only so much you can do. The timing at the plate is really the only issue. He's taken his groundballs, he's getting his running in, he's getting his workouts.

"He showed up to spring ready to go, game ready. I think (with) the timing at the plate, you take a few weeks off of at-bats, 90 (mph) looks like 95, 95 looks like 100. So he'll need as many at-bats as we can give him."

Naturally, he'll face Syndergaard on Friday.

35

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Nice podcast on projected 2018 farm rankings.

« on: February 26, 2017, 05:14:46 pm »

Caught today's game and have to say that I really liked a couple of guys that the podcast mentions. Perez, for being as young as he is, looked really good. On the position side, Laureano is a player who always looks like he's in control, offensively and defensively. He slapped a single on the first pitch he saw, then worked a walk in his second AB. Very quiet in the box with no wasted movement. It's not hard to see how he had success last year.

36

Beer and Queso / Re: Spring Training Question

« on: February 23, 2017, 05:49:33 am »

The berm sounds like a winner.  Looking at the stadium, there's an entrance to the field in LCF; is that where the players enter, by any chance?

37

Beer and Queso / Re: Spring Training Question

« on: February 21, 2017, 02:51:21 pm »

That is the textbook definition of a hostile workplace environment.

Fortunately, or unfortunately, I needed the money and thought it was decent pay at the time.  But yeah, there have to be trainings somewhere that use that exact scenario.

38

Beer and Queso / Re: Spring Training Question

« on: February 20, 2017, 04:08:47 pm »

But, I should quickly add, spring training is one of the great things in life and I sincerely hope this will be the first of many, many spring games you enjoy with your family.

Thanks, me too.  I really have no interest in going to the park at Disney (we're going to Universal), but with the way the schedule worked out, it was the easiest option.  I definitely want to go back another time to catch the new digs, the pictures of the place look really nice.  And I will take your advice about headphones, I shared an office the summer after college with a woman from Minnysoda who was obsessed with the B-52's.  Every single day, she would sing along to Love Shack.  Every single day.

39

Beer and Queso / Re: Spring Training Question

« on: February 20, 2017, 12:36:49 pm »

Way too much non-baseball entertainment since they think that no one will enjoy a game and a gorgeous spring day without 110 dBs of obnoxious nattering.

Ugh

40

Talk Zone / Re: Ex-Astros News 2016-2017

« on: February 20, 2017, 12:27:56 pm »

Strange that a guy doing all that digging never induced ground balls.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Baby giraffes prefer to feed from trees.

41

Beer and Queso / Re: Spring Training Question

« on: February 20, 2017, 12:22:11 pm »

Thanks.  Is it a loud stadium in general, or the chop that makes it unbearable?

42

Beer and Queso / Spring Training Question

« on: February 20, 2017, 10:26:21 am »

Bringing my family to Orlando this weekend and was going to catch the Astros game Sunday at Disney while we're in town.  I've never caught a ST game, so does anyone have any pointers (e.g. sections to avoid, when to arrive, etc)?  We're going to try to catch some autographs, would that be easier before the game or after?  Thanks for any advice.

43

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Prospect Rankings 2017

« on: February 16, 2017, 10:30:29 am »

They don't give a shit. They're selling to Kushner.

ETA: I wonder if Manfred will make them change leagues.

And Loria gets a sweet new gig out of the deal, hacking off more francophones.

44

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Prospect Rankings 2017

« on: February 15, 2017, 08:41:58 pm »

can you imagine how sick Marlins leadership feels?

At least they got about 120 good-okay innings out of Cosart from the deal...

45

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Prospect Rankings 2017

« on: February 15, 2017, 12:07:17 pm »

Might be #1 now given the news that Reyes blew out his elbow and will undergo TJS.

So, that increases his trade value, right?

46

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Prospect Rankings 2017

« on: February 13, 2017, 10:54:43 am »

BA put together a list of players outside the Top 100 for each position who are players whom they feel could break out (one at the lower levels, one at the upper levels).  Forrest Whitley made the cut, with this writeup:

Lower: Forrest Whitley (Astros). Whitley is huge (6-foot-7, 240 pounds), with a power fastball and swing-and-miss breaking stuff that should help him pile up strikeouts. Unlike most giant teenage pitchers, Whitley already has the body control to maintain his delivery and throw strikes well for a 19-year-old.
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/beyond-top-100-breakout-prospects-every-position/#OH4LfK8Uz0oxTkp6.99

47

Talk Zone / Re: FBI Investigating Cards in Hack Job

« on: January 29, 2017, 02:27:04 pm »

My (maybe somewhat biased) opinion has always been that it doesn't matter if the gm/owner knew or not. This wasn't the equipment manager or minor league coach. This is someone who had the ability to use info to better his organizations state and his position within that organization. 

I've seen many people say "there's no proof that the Cardinals gained anything." It should not matter if they used the info or not, the point is they COULD use it.

I hope that the commish hits them hard, as he should. This cannot happen. Period.

Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk

Well, their argument can be tossed out the window, at this point.  There's a definite link between information that was stolen and players that they selected.  Whether that information was just used to confirm or to inform their decision has no bearing.  Would Marco Gonzales have lasted another 21 picks until our second selection, thus directly stealing a pick from us?  Probably not, but that's irrelevant. 

I'm really not sure what an appropriate penalty should be.  I would hope that we receive compensation in the form of a player, most likely draft (though an argument could be made for Gonzales).  Unless we're talking about a huge fine (>$5M), I just don't see money as being a big enough deterrent. 

48

Talk Zone / Re: FBI Investigating Cards in Hack Job

« on: January 29, 2017, 12:21:10 pm »

In case anyone missed this and needs something to read.


https://www.google.com/amp/www.chron.com/sports/astros/amp/As-MLB-ruling-nears-new-details-of-Cardinals-10891605.php

Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk

In light of these details (e.g. direct use of information accessed multiple times for multiple purposes), it will be hard for Manfred to not punish the Cardinals organization, regardless of what others may or may not have known. 

49

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Rumors

« on: January 23, 2017, 07:55:14 pm »

Fiers is likely currently 6th on the rotation depth chart if everyone is healthy.  Plus the guys right below him aren't a huge downgrade from him.  Not a whole lot of reasons to keep him and 3.45 million reasons to let him go.  Highly doubt they trade him prior to spring training.  But wouldn't be shocked to see him in a different uniform by opening day

Luhnow's said repeatedly that it takes 8-9 starters to get through a season. You list 12 players, but are all of them really options? Feliz (for the most part) and Devo excelled in the pen; at least one should have a prominent role in the pen. The others below him are pretty much wild cards, at this point. I'm not a Fiers apologist, by any means, but I think he will serve a purpose this season. $3.45M isn't enough of a reason to jettison him, just because.

50

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Rumors

« on: January 23, 2017, 01:17:20 pm »

Either the rumors are persisting or Cafardo has run out of new material:

"2. Mike Fiers, RHP, Astros — There’s been talk around the league that the Astros may seek to move Fiers or Collin McHugh to create some salary space. Fiers settled for $3.45 million (a movable contract) after going 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA in 30 starts (and one relief appearance) last season. It was a big jump from the $524,000 he earned last season."

Latest from Nick Cafardo

It always seemed like money wasn't an issue unless they were adding more somewhere else (namely, bringing in another starter).  With the odds appearing low at this point that we will add anything other than depth, I don't see why we would need "salary space". 

51

Talk Zone / Re: Ex-Astros News 2016-2017

« on: January 20, 2017, 02:08:11 pm »

Valbuena reportedly to the Angels on a 2-year deal, pending physical.  While he didn't really have a position with us anymore, I have a feeling that he could become a thorn in our side.

In Ex-Astros (draft pick) news, the A's designated Brett Eibner for assignment.   

52

Talk Zone / Re: Bagwell in the HOF

« on: January 19, 2017, 02:07:46 pm »

Bidge and Baggy become just the fourth tandem in Cooperstown to play for at  least 15 years together on the same club. If you want to take a guess at the others they played for Pirates, Giant (NY) and Yanks.

Stargell and Clemente?

53

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Prospect Rankings 2017

« on: January 19, 2017, 10:02:54 am »

MLB.com with their Top 10 catching prospects today.  No Stros on the list, but Stubbs received honorable mention.

He may be undersized at 5-foot-10 and 175 pounds, yet Garrett Stubbs (Astros) is a dynamo who's athletic behind the plate and excels at making contact.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/213808058/2017-top-10-catching-prospects/?topicid=151437456

54

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Prospect Rankings 2017

« on: January 17, 2017, 12:21:41 pm »

MLB.com published their top 10 RHP prospect list today.  Alex Reyes, who, it feels like, has been on these lists forever, comes in at #1, with Martes at #5. 

Martes' stuff is similar to what Lance McCullers Jr. showed in the Minors. He can work at 93-96 mph and reach 98 with his fastball, and while it doesn't feature a ton of life, he does show some feel for moving it around the strike zone. His curveball gives him a second well above-average pitch, combining power and depth.

Martes' changeup has improved a lot in the last two years and shows flashes of becoming a plus offering, and he also can snap off a hard slider when he wants.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=rhp

55

Talk Zone / Re: FBI Investigating Cards in Hack Job

« on: January 16, 2017, 04:48:08 pm »

Cards chairman Bill Dewitt expects the verdict to be reached by late January/early February.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/hackgate-punishment-could-come-before-spring-training/article_cbe9818d-03a7-5b45-8c25-86d71f4e2ed3.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

56

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Rumors

« on: January 16, 2017, 04:44:27 pm »

Is that supposed to give them leverage in trade talks for Quintana or Archer? There's almost zero reason for the A's to sell low on Gray. They might as well wait and see if he can bounce back this year, at least.

Selling low is the new market inefficiency.

57

Talk Zone / Re: Free Agents 2016

« on: December 28, 2016, 01:06:17 pm »

Not that it matters, but I'm more curious whether the Astros actually were involved or not. While their was lots of media speculation, Bowden was (as far as I know) the only one who reported Houston with an actual offer.

In a side note, Heyman mentioned today that the Astros did offer 3/ $66M to EE. Out of the "known" offers, that would be the highest AAV offered. It's likely that they pulled the offer, though, probably after signing Beltran.

[urlhttp://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-strange-market-encarnacion-dozen-sluggers-remain/][/url]

58

Talk Zone / Re: Free Agents 2016

« on: December 22, 2016, 01:55:47 pm »

Odd that Pittsburgh was able to get him so cheaply. Very nice sign at that price.

Yeah, he got less guaranteed money than Brett Cecil, who'll pitch 50-60 innings (provided STL doesn't use him as a LOOGY, like TOR did last season).  I wouldn't give Nova $15M/season, but Pittsburgh definitely did well on this one.

59

Talk Zone / Re: 2017 HOF Class

« on: December 22, 2016, 10:33:21 am »

The problem with Bagwell is that the private votes killed him last year.  Whereas Bonds & Clemens saw a pretty even split (-3.9% and -2.0%, respectively), Jeff's percentage on private ballots was 14.3% lower than public ballots (-12.6% in 2015).  If all of his votes from last year hold over, he'll need to pick up 12 additional votes to get in.  He's gained 4 new votes, so it's entirely possible that he reaches that threshold, but it's still in breath-holding mode at this point.   

60

Talk Zone / Re: Free Agents 2016

« on: December 22, 2016, 10:21:13 am »

Ivan Nova remains with the Pirates, signing for less than what many thought he would receive.  His contract provides a guaranteed $26M over 3 years, with an additional $2M in performance bonuses. 

61

Talk Zone / Re: Sensible CBA change

« on: December 16, 2016, 11:23:37 am »

Another overdue change to the CBA, beginning in 2018, games will have to start earlier on getaway days if either team has longer than a 2 1/2 hour flight to reach their next destination.  Teams also won't be allowed to schedule afternoon games if  their opponent had a night game the day before.  This will affect Houston as much as any team, since Arlington, St. Louis, KC, and Atlanta are the only cities under 2 1/2 hours (Chicago's right there). 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18292221/mlb-new-labor-deal-requires-earlier-start-s-getaway-days 

62

Talk Zone / Re: Ex-Astros News 2016-2017

« on: December 13, 2016, 01:45:38 pm »

Matt Dominguez signed a minor-league deal w/ spring invite with the Sawx.

63

Talk Zone / Re: Yoan Moncada and other Cuban prospects currently unsigned

« on: December 09, 2016, 08:57:00 am »

Jesse Sanchez ‏@JesseSanchezMLB 25m25 minutes ago

Source: Astros have signed Cuban LHP Cionel Perez, #4 on @MLB Top 30 Prospects list, to a $2M deal. @MLBPipeline

Astros get their man, anyway.  Whatever the issue was, it obviously wasn't a deal breaker.  Could just be structural concerns that raised flags about him. 

64

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Cal League Contraction

« on: December 09, 2016, 08:05:58 am »

Fayetteville is one step closer to having professional baseball after a City Council committee Thursday night accepted two stadium agreements that are scheduled to be signed with fanfare next week.

Club is scheduled to pay installments of $250,000 the first five years, then increase after that over the course of the 30-year lease.  The two documents that were agreed upon (the lease and office space) will be officially recognized at a special session on Tuesday.

http://www.fayobserver.com/news/local/fayetteville-s-baseball-committee-accepts-two-stadium-related-documents/article_066f4b05-0b59-5d97-8aa7-a619d25a9635.html 

65

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Rumors

« on: December 06, 2016, 04:30:22 pm »

So far reported: Moncada #1, Kopech #5, Basabe #8, and Diaz #28 on mlb.com's Red Sox prospect list.  If that's all, I'm not happy if I'm White Sox fan.

I don't think it's a bad trade.  Moncada's arguably the best prospect in the game right now and Kopech is in not far off in the pitching department.  Not that White Sox fans would get excited about this, but the Red Sox are also paying the remaining $31.2M on Moncada's contract. 

66

Talk Zone / Re: Free Agents 2016

« on: December 05, 2016, 01:55:25 pm »

Astros grab Tolliver off waivers

Quick scouting report:

Tolliver is a slightly-built lefty at 6-0, 170, born January 24, 1998 in Little Rock, Arkansas. He's athletic and has a quick arm but scouts worried about his durability even before he got hurt, which ensured he would stay in the bullpen. The good news is that his fastball has returned to pre-injury status in the 90-93 range, peaking at 94-95. He has a very good change-up and throws strikes, but his breaking ball is erratic; sometimes it is quite good, sometimes it just loops up there. His platoon splits are conventional rather than the extreme splits commonly seen for a LOOGY;

Posted a 5.79 ERA in 4 2/3 IP in his first cup of coffee last season, though the 3 ER were given up in one outing. 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/5/25/11769168/mlb-rookie-report-ashur-tolliver-lhp-baltimore-orioles

67

Talk Zone / Re: Free Agents 2016

« on: December 05, 2016, 12:08:53 pm »

MLB Network reporting he Dodgers are close on Hill.

Official.  3/$48M

68

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Rumors

« on: December 05, 2016, 08:37:59 am »

One of many poo-flung nuggets in the latest Nick Cafardo column:

"The Astros have been busy, and we’re hearing they would listen on righty Collin McHugh (13-10, 4.34) and DH/catcher Evan Gattis. Could this tandem appeal to the Yankees?"

The Yankees obviously aren't gonna deal Tanaka, so what would be the appeal to the Astros?

Jayson Stark echoes the McHugh rumor and adds Fiers to the mix. 

69

Talk Zone / Re: Your 2017 Astros Starting Lineups

« on: December 04, 2016, 07:44:05 pm »

Do you know that Beltran was their top choice?  Maybe Encarnacion was their top choice but they didn't think they could get it done and they didn't want to lose their second choice.

That being said, I can't see the Astros giving up on Reed.  He was too good in the minors.

Rosenthal chimed in with some thoughts on why they chose Beltran over EE:  The money/length, but also the switch-hitting, being able to keep Yuri at 1B, and the clubhouse presence (not that EE is a negative presence).  He does add in a separate tweet, that they could get back in on EE if the price drops. 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/winter-meetings-mlb-rumors-cba-ken-rosenthal-chicago-cubs-houston-astros-oakland-athletics-120416

70

Talk Zone / Re: Free Agents 2016

« on: December 04, 2016, 06:35:29 pm »

Holliday to the Yanks, 1/$13M. 

71

Talk Zone / Re: Your 2017 Astros Starting Lineups

« on: December 04, 2016, 09:56:27 am »

Assuming he's still with the org, what if Reed shows up to ST in better shape and just tears the cover off the ball?  Does he still start in AAA?

How would he not? With the current roster, who would he take 1B/DH at-bats from?

72

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Rumors

« on: December 03, 2016, 01:52:48 pm »

Rosenthal on Sale:

 

  Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 3m3 minutes ago

    Sources: #Nationals remain in talks with #WhiteSox on Sale and #Pirates on McCutchen. #RedSox open on Sale, but only at lesser asking price.

    Sources add: #Astros, #Rangers out on Sale at current asks. #Dodgers more focused on free agents than trades. #Braves still in mix.

    With #WhiteSox’s Sale - as with any off-season negotiation, trade or free agent - talks are fluid and positions can shift at any time.

73

Talk Zone / Re: Free Agents 2016

« on: December 03, 2016, 01:47:37 pm »

Current roster options among position players (either had MLB time w/ the club last year or recent signings):

C - McCann, Gattis, Stassi
IF - Altuve, Bregman, Correa, Gonzalez, Gurriel, Moran, Reed, White
OF - Aoki, Beltran, Hernandez, Kemp, Marisnick, Reddick, Springer, Tucker

Gattis, Gonzalez, Aoki, and Marisnick seem to be locks as backups, at this point (though the exact OF configuration is debatable).  On the bright side for the others, barring any trades, Fresno looks like it's going to be stacked this year.   

74

Talk Zone / Re: Free Agents 2016

« on: December 03, 2016, 01:24:03 pm »

I wanted Encarnacion mostly to facilitate a Sale trade (could still do it I guess).

Could, but having Encarnacion for 4 years eases the sting of potentially losing Bregman, much more than signing a player on a 1-year deal.  I'll still support Beltran, but he's not going to be a cornerstone of the franchise. 

75

Talk Zone / Re: Revenue Sharing

« on: December 01, 2016, 11:36:22 am »

Word on the radio here in the Bay Area this morning was that this possibly means a new stadium deal for the A's will be announced soon.

Just have to flush out the details?

76

Talk Zone / Re: Free Agents 2016

« on: December 01, 2016, 09:46:23 am »

Bob Nightengale Verified account
‏@BNightengale

The Houston #Astros are in heavy pursuit of Edwin Encarnacion or Carlos Beltran, believing they will land one of them

77

Talk Zone / Re: Free Agents 2016

« on: November 30, 2016, 12:44:54 pm »

Nothing that firm, here's a fox sports article.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/houston-astros-rumored-to-be-nearing-deal-with-edwin-encarnacion-113016?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Thanks, all I had seen was the Brian Bilek guy, who I hadn't heard of. 

A package including Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Forrest Whitley, David Paulino, Daz Cameron and Franklin Perez or Riley Ferrell would probably work for both sides.

Ouch.

78

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Rumors

« on: November 30, 2016, 12:40:14 pm »

I know I'm in the minority, but I'm not big on trading away any major pieces like Bregman or Martes just yet.  I believe our window is still wide open.  The core group of this team won't begin to get broken up till the 2020 season (Altuve).  I guess my point is we still have time on our side, no?

Biggest one coming up is Keuchel, who has two more seasons until he can reach free agency.  There are a few other pieces who will be there before Altuve, but none quite as important as Keuchel.  We're talking about guys like Gattis, McHugh, and some bullpen arms.

79

Talk Zone / Re: Free Agents 2016

« on: November 30, 2016, 12:30:57 pm »

Some reports on White Sox Twitter that the Astros have agreed to a deal with Encarnacion

Who's the source?

80

Talk Zone / Re: Free Agents 2016

« on: November 30, 2016, 08:12:33 am »

From Canada's The Sports Network (TSN):

Edwin Encarnacion’s agent says the Toronto Blue Jays free-agent first baseman will probably sign a contract later this week or early next week, and that the Blue Jays are “showing Edwin the most love.”

“We won’t put any restrictions on any offer like years or anything,” Kinzer said. “He’s going to decide where he’s comfortable. One of the things we have to look at is the big difference in the tax base between some of the teams that are interested. Plus, there’s a comfort level we need to consider.”

He also mentions that two teams have made "serious" offers, while another three are waiting on the CBA to be resolved before making formal offers.  While not necessarily the reason that the teams are waiting, it makes sense that those teams could be affected by the salary cap if they were to sign him.  There has been talk of penalizing teams with the loss of draft picks, rather than just a tax.  So that factor, along with where the threshold lands, could cause pause among high-payroll teams that may be interested in Encarnacion.     

81

Talk Zone / Re: Free Agents 2016

« on: November 30, 2016, 08:03:19 am »

Boy they sure do seem to be loading up.  A signing like that on top of picking up McCann and Riddick would lessen the blow of losing Bregman.

Rosenthal has heard thinking along those lines:

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 13h13 hours ago

One rival exec theorizes #Astros trying to load up on offense so they can trade a young hitter (Springer? Bregman?) for an elite starter.
85 replies 197 retweets 330 likes

I'm not anxious to lose either player (esp. Bregman), but it's going to hurt if they get a pitcher along the lines of a Sale.   

82

Talk Zone / Re: Free Agents 2016

« on: November 29, 2016, 02:06:18 pm »

Astros were heavily in the mix for Cespedes, who ultimately signed with the Mets.  Crasnick has the Astros as a "potential option" for Encarnacion. 

83

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Rumors

« on: November 18, 2016, 06:37:33 pm »

McCann trade seems like a decent upgrade.  Riddick I don't get.  Perhaps I'm just getting too old.  4/52 seems like a ton for a 30 year old corner outfielder with little power and can't hit lefties.  Todd what makes you so excited about this guy?

Good defense, hits for average, lefty in a very RH-heavy lineup, strikes out less than average, would average 18-20 HR/season if he stayed healthy (yeah, I know). 

84

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Rumors

« on: November 17, 2016, 06:38:49 pm »

Joel Sherman ‏@Joelsherman1  14 minutes ago
#Astros like many continue to see price on Sale #chisox prohibitive, #Rays SP (Odorrizi/Archer) or Verlander #Tigers could be more likely

Verlander seems like a good buy-low candidate after losing out on the Cy Young.

85

Talk Zone / Re: Free Agents 2016

« on: November 16, 2016, 09:26:26 am »

Astros add to the rotation, signing RHP Charlie Morton to a 2-year deal worth a guaranteed $14M (w/ incentives based on starts that could add another $5M).  Among active pitchers w/ 800 IP, Keuchel and Morton rank 1-2 in GB/FB ratio.   

86

Talk Zone / Re: Free Agents 2016

« on: November 09, 2016, 02:51:01 pm »

Jon Paul Morosi says the Red Sox, Yankees and Astros are the leading contenders to sign Edwin Encarnacion.

(via Astros County)

Morosi adding to that, mentioning the club will pursue either Encarnacion or Miguel Cabrera, citing Altuve as a potential recruiter (they share a hometown). 

87

Talk Zone / Re: Free Agents 2016

« on: September 16, 2016, 08:17:14 am »

Before Bregman started playing third and Gurriel began taking starts at first I thought this infield was in flux and could have easily seen Encarnacion as an Astro next year.  Now it's clearly about a possible impact outfield bat (Teoscar has been interesting but it is time to "go for it" imo) and a legitimate top line starter. Even with both, the Astros must have a healthy McCullers and an effective Kuechel. The price of two front line starters would just be silly.


In some ways though the greatest need might be behind the plate. I can't think of a solution. Any ideas?

Unless you can land Ramos, you aren't really going to find an upgrade over Castro in free agency.  I don't know what you'd be able to find via the trade market, either.  I know Gattis has been Johnny Bench at the plate when catching this year, but unless the club feels he can improve his ability to block pitches, he doesn't need to be the starter.  Just bring back Castro for a couple of years.  If the rest of the lineup is clicking, he's not going to kill the lineup.  Use your resources to bring in that outfield bat and the best starter you can.

88

Talk Zone / Re: Allison Footer

« on: August 24, 2016, 12:43:56 pm »

Let's talk about McHugh.  He's has not been good this season.  Is he even in the rotation next season?

Assuming that the Astros don't go out and get a veteran pitcher (and McCullers is okay), could the rotation be Keuchel, McCullers, Musgrove, Fiers, Devenski? 

Its not that I am particularly enamored with Fiers, but he's been better than McHugh.  And the Astros have Martes and Paulino who may also be ready for next year.

Don't forget Brady Rodgers, who is close to wrapping up the PCL ERA title and more polished than the other two.

89

Talk Zone / Re: Correa

« on: August 22, 2016, 04:24:17 pm »

Came across an article that talks about this very topic.  The article can be summed up with this quote:

 

Correa’s batting average was at .252 and his OPS at .762 on June 14. Since then, he’s hitting .294 with a .910 OPS.  The difference has been better performance against outside pitches (those on the outer-half of the plate or off the outside corner.

Overall, Correa's slugging % is down this season (.512 to .468), but his hard-hit ball rate has grown from 16% to 20%.

One other area that he has shown growth in has been his defense:

He was at minus-7 defensive runs saved on June 14. He’s had four defensive runs saved since then. Per Baseball Info Solutions’ defensive data, Correa is better at getting to balls hit up the middle than any other shortstop in baseball.

I don't know all the nuances that go in to that or how he became that much better in what was basically the second half of the season thus far.  But, that seems like a significant improvement and would average to about 12 for a full season.  That wouldn't make him an elite shortstop, but easily one of the better ones.  Again, I don't know what goes into that stat, or what to make of it's findings, but there's that.

http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/123031/carlos-correa-looking-away-for-recent-success

90

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Fresno Grizzlies/Tacos 2016

« on: August 19, 2016, 04:13:50 pm »

David Paulino up from CC.

91

Talk Zone / Re: Luhnow discusses trade deadline

« on: August 18, 2016, 12:32:47 pm »

I wonder how the conversation goes with Altuve and Springer when negotiating a new contract and Luhnow tells them no no-trade clauses.

I'm more worried about them ponying up the kind of money to keep both in the first place.  I know they've said that they will spend money, and they have been increasing payroll.  But, we could be looking at $50M/season to sign both.  Altuve's recent statements and jumping over to Boras imply heavily that he will go to free agency and he will be getting paid.  Since he'll only be 29 at that point (he'll turn 30 the following season), he could be looking at an 8-year deal.  Unless the club tears up the last three years of his contract ('17-'19) and offers to pay him market rate, I'm not optimistic that he wears our uniform in 2020, no-trade clause, or not.     

92

Talk Zone / Re: The Rainout

« on: August 12, 2016, 12:49:42 pm »

But he still would be only "above average".

Currently 7th in the AL with 4.8 WAR (only Bryant has a higher score in the NL) and on pace for a 25 HR/110 RBI season. 

93

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Mid-season prospect rankings

« on: August 02, 2016, 12:47:47 pm »

Just to be fair, can we look at Correa's rookie campaign as part of the conversation?  I know that was last year, but it has to be relevant.  Plus, I'm pretty happy that they finally got Altuve to be more selective with his swings; that seems to have turned out well for the slugger.   

94

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Deadline Rumors

« on: August 01, 2016, 01:39:41 pm »

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 32s32 seconds ago

Source: #Astros working on deals big and small. Number of possibilities in play.

Also, with LHP relievers being a concern, I wonder if Chris Cotton is considered an option for this season.  His AAA numbers are skewed by a 5-run outing in his first appearance, but he's been solid, otherwise.

95

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2016 Draft

« on: June 12, 2016, 11:45:55 am »

Final breakdown of one of the most ridiculously college-heavy drafts you'll ever see:

College senior: 14**
College junior:  15
JUCO: 6***
HS: 5*

Since last year, when they drafted 33 players from the 4-year ranks and 3 more from JuCo's?  They did draft 8 HS players, but also had two more picks than they did this year.  In 2014, they only drafted 4 players out of HS, 9 out of JuCo's, and the rest out of the 4-year ranks.  Economics has shaped it (Elias has said as much) and agents, like Boras, are more likely to advise HS players to go the college route if they don't get money that teams may not be willing to pay them.  Regardless, college-heavy is a trend with this FO (and you could probably find similarities in previous regimes, though the economics were not quite the same).

96

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi Hooks 2016

« on: June 12, 2016, 11:27:42 am »

No-doubt walkoff shot from Bregman last night as the Hooks beat the Missions 5-4 in the 10th.  Watch how fast he turns around on a 97-100 MPH heater from the reliever:

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20160612&content_id=183593106&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

97

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2016 Draft

« on: June 10, 2016, 02:28:17 pm »

Cavan Biggio selected by the Blue Jays.  No consolation pick for us this year.

98

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2016 Draft

« on: June 10, 2016, 01:43:28 pm »

Mark Berman ‏@MarkBermanFox26 4m4 minutes ago Texas, USA

#Astros 3rd-round pick catcher Jake Rogers from Tulane patterns his game after "kind of a lot of people combined.I love the Molina brothers"

I'm going to pretend that he's just talking about Bengie and Jose.

99

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2016 Draft

« on: June 10, 2016, 01:33:17 pm »

#Astros take Brett Adcock, who’s a lot like Matt Krook but without as good of a body—really good stuff from left side, command needs to come

100

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2016 Draft

« on: June 10, 2016, 12:54:25 pm »

Some observations:

Frankie Piliere ‏@FPiliereD1 3m3 minutes ago

#Astros take Jake Rogers, maybe the most polished defensive catcher in the class. Plus arm, plus agility. Flashes 55 power, bat developing

JJ Cooper ‏@jjcoop36 4m4 minutes ago

Got to point watching Tulane games that I was amazed when anyone tried to run on new Astros' C Jake Rogers

JJ Cooper ‏@jjcoop36 5m5 minutes ago

Astros get a catcher Jake Rogers. Tulane...great arm, great defense, iffy bat.

101

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Hot sheet 2016

« on: June 10, 2016, 12:44:42 pm »

This week's list with an encouraging report on Martes:

7. Francis Martes, rhp, Astros

HoustonAstros
Team: Double-A Corpus Christi (Texas)
Age: 20
Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.69, 2 GS, 13 IP, 11 H, 1 R, 15 SO, 4 BB

The Scoop: One of the youngest players in the Texas League, Martes recorded a 9.00 ERA in April, but he improved to 3.44 in May and now 0.69 in June. He has a fastball in the mid- to upper 90s that he pairs with a curveball, a changeup and a slider. He’s working to refine all his pitches. (VLC)

Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-june-10-indians-mejia-steps/#rpoLRpBx1Y7OXDEG.99

102

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2016 Draft

« on: June 10, 2016, 12:39:21 pm »

My thought as well.  Dawson struck me as a very underwhelming pick (fairly athletic with raw power, but has a middling arm and struggled with wooden bats in the Cape Cod League).  I'd like to that when both Muller and Reynolds were chosen just a few picks before, the Astros decided to save some money for over slot picks later on.

If it was to save money, it's also possible that Whitley's asking price was higher than they could offer with slot.

103

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi Hooks 2016

« on: June 10, 2016, 09:48:27 am »

Only 4 steals? That's surprising. Bregman was a prolific base thief in college.

Didn't run a ton last year, either with 13 steals in 272 AB.  That still comes out to ~30 in a full season, which I think is about what we'll see from him as he develops.

104

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2016 Draft

« on: June 10, 2016, 09:36:37 am »

HS righties taken by the Astros over the years in the first round: Folty, Tony McKnight, Scott Elarton, Jeff Juden, Ryan Bowen, J.R. Richard, Wayne Twitchell.

Interesting that every one of those guys pitched in the big leagues and (excluding Folty of course) 4 of 6 spent eight seasons or more in the bigs.

Can add Lyles and McCullers if you're willing to include supplemental picks.

105

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi Hooks 2016

« on: June 09, 2016, 03:17:18 pm »

Bregman goes 2-4 last night to put himself back over .300 (.304) with his 4th stolen base.  On the season, he has a 26/19 BB/K ratio.

106

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2016 Draft

« on: June 09, 2016, 03:00:27 pm »

FWIW,

Brian McTaggart ‏@brianmctaggart 17m17 minutes ago

Hearing the Astros are very high on Illinois RHP Cody Sedlock.

107

Game Zone 2016 Archive / Re: Astros @ stRangizz June 9, 2016

« on: June 09, 2016, 02:58:42 pm »

Following on GameDay, did Valbuena seriously try to bunt twice in a row with no one on base?

108

Talk Zone / Re: Ex-Astros News

« on: June 08, 2016, 12:53:45 pm »

Vince Velasquez pulled from his start today after throwing 2 87mph fastballs.  Hate to see that.

Hopefully, not too serious.

Meghan Montemurro ‏@M_Montemurro 4m4 minutes ago

Velasquez exited the game with right biceps soreness. #Phillies

109

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Fresno Grizzlies/Tacos 2016

« on: June 07, 2016, 08:35:14 am »

James Hoyt does not want to be a 30 year old Grizzly.

Would that make him a grizzled veteran?

110

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2016 Draft

« on: June 03, 2016, 12:30:47 pm »

What that quote really means is that, once again, no one has a clue what the Astros will do.

To a degree.  Many had them taking Aiken in '14 and Callis for one, had them taking Bregman and Tucker last year (he also saw them taking Cameron if he fell past the Rangers).  But, this year will be much harder to throw darts at, with not only their tendencies in play, but the whims of 16 other teams to consider. 

111

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2016 Draft

« on: June 03, 2016, 10:20:32 am »

Callis' latest take on the draft, which begins next Thursday:

17. Astros: Cody Sedlock, RHP, Illinois
Houston is tied mostly to college arms such as Hudson, Sedlock, Burdi, Pittsburgh right-hander T.J. Zeuch and Kent State lefty Eric Lauer. The Astros are exploring all of the demographics, however, with college position players (Wake Forest third baseman Will Craig), high school bats (Kirilloff, Jones) and high school pitchers (homestate righty Forrest Whitley) all possibilities.

112

Talk Zone / Re: does anyone think springer lead off vs altuve made the change in play

« on: June 02, 2016, 08:00:23 am »

Springer played in 102 games last season (1 as a PH).  Of those 101 starts, he led off in almost half (46) of those games.  So, I don't see why it would be a surprise that Hinch would try him leading off again. 

113

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2016 Int'l Signings

« on: June 01, 2016, 09:46:57 am »

Exactly. Badler makes it sound like steroids are very prevalent among these kids. They 'roid up long enough to get lucrative oral agreements arranged, then cycle off in time (usually) to pass the PED test when signing time is approaching.

A lot of times, it's at the urging/control of the trainers that this happens.  Many of the kids have no clue how things work, they just follow the advice of the trainer, who also has heavy incentive for the kids to receive a large bonus.

114

Talk Zone / Re: Bullpen

« on: May 28, 2016, 08:37:55 pm »

I wouldn't call Giles "solid" after what I saw in April. He's been outstanding lately but I'm afraid he could turn back into a pumpkin at the most inopportune time. But what he is now is spectacular.

I think we'll see more of the spectacular than the pumpkin the rest of the season.  His fastball topped out at 97MPH in April and has been a couple of ticks faster this month.  He's also cleaned up some things, according to Hinch:

"I think his mechanics are a little more in sync and he's a guy that historically has gotten stronger as the season's gone along," Astros manager A.J. Hinch said before Wednesday's game. "Getting into the season has always been a problem for him, so I think he's getting a little more comfortable.

http://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Astros-Ken-Giles-feeling-more-comfortable-7690955.php?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

115

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi Hooks 2016

« on: May 28, 2016, 08:26:10 pm »

Has an extra kick in his delivery that probably affects hitters' timing.  Secondary pitches are decent, also.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBYWcN10ve8

116

Game Zone 2016 Archive / Re: Whiny Fucksticks @ Astros May 21, 2016

« on: May 21, 2016, 08:22:34 pm »

But, does he know what heirloom tomatoes are?

117

Game Zone 2016 Archive / Re: Whiny Fucksticks @ Astros May 21, 2016

« on: May 21, 2016, 08:18:07 pm »

What is it with Dallas sports and guys that should be in jail?

118

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2016 Draft

« on: May 20, 2016, 01:17:33 pm »

Jim Callis takes a crack:

17. Astros: Dakota Hudson, RHP, Mississippi State

A possible top-10 pick until he slumped in April, Hudson has rebounded in May and should spark a run on college pitchers in the latter half of the first round. Seven of our next 17 projected picks are college arms, and right-handers Corbin Burnes (St. Mary's), Logan Shore (Florida) and Justin Dunn (Boston College) and lefty Anthony Kay (Connecticut) also could be factors for clubs seeking mound help sooner rather than later.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/179142756/aj-puk-at-no-1-in-latest-mlb-mock-draft?topicid=151437456

119

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi Hooks 2016

« on: May 18, 2016, 01:54:11 pm »

Hooks with their 9th win in a row today, giving them 14 in their last 17 games.  Bregman led the way again, going 2-4 with his 9th HR (a 2-run shot) and his 3rd steal of the season.  For anyone interested, he was stationed at SS.  On the mound, Cy Sneed went 5 innings of 2 run ball, striking out 7.  In the second part of the tandem, Evan Grills allowed only 3 hits in 4 scoreless frames, striking out 2 and running his scoreless streak to 11 to begin his tenure at AA.

120

Talk Zone / Re: The Competition

« on: May 17, 2016, 02:31:26 pm »

So far, Odor gets eight and Gibbons, three.  Odor was fined $5,000 and has appealed the suspension. 

121

Talk Zone / Re: Hitting

« on: May 17, 2016, 12:24:54 pm »

I guess a 30 year old journeyman infielder with a very limited record of success doesn't inspire that much confidence.

My thoughts, exactly.  They've wanted Moran at this level all along, so it's been a matter of him proving himself, moreso than him competing against someone else.  Moran is expected to play 3B/DH and get regular AB with the club.  Knowing that, I don't think it's safe to assume that it's not Valbuena who is being moved off the 25-man.  This would explain why they're taking a little longer making the announcement (like they did with Fields). 

122

Talk Zone / Re: The Competition

« on: May 16, 2016, 02:11:20 pm »

Rougned Unpleasant Smell has always been a fuckstick. I saw him play in Frisco and he was a fuckstick. He is a worthy successor to Pissant.

I think that is unfair to "He who shall not become a password".  Eckstein was annoyingly persistent, but was never malicious. 

123

Talk Zone / Re: Hitting

« on: May 16, 2016, 10:56:07 am »

Tony Kemp appears set to get the next crack: 

The Astros have promoted outfielder/second baseman Tony Kemp from Class AAA Fresno to take the roster spot vacated Sunday when they optioned Preston Tucker, according to sources familiar with the decision.

The team has yet to announce the move.

I don't know what to expect of him, or what role he steps into, but at least the club's trying something.

http://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Astros-to-call-up-Tony-Kemp-from-Class-AAA-Fresno-7478581.php?cmpid=twitter-mobile

124

Talk Zone / Re: The Competition

« on: May 16, 2016, 10:52:41 am »

I think Odor's reaction wasn't about the slide.  It has been well-documented Odor slides dirty with the best of them.  It was the fact that Odor didn't get to throw the pitch that hit Batista.  It was still about the bat flip. 

I don't give Odor that much credit to not hold himself to a double-standard.  Very well could have been about the bat flip, but I doubt he saw the slide as "just part of the game". 

125

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2016 Draft

« on: May 13, 2016, 04:31:22 pm »

MLB.com went a different direction:

17. Astros: Ian Anderson, RHP, Shenendehowa H.S., Clifton Park, N.Y.
The Astros could be looking at a number of high school arms in this stretch. Anderson has been a bit tough to scout with the Northeast weather and an illness that sidelined him, but he might have top 10 ability.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/177741112/kyle-lewis-at-no-1-in-latest-mlb-mock-draft?topicid=151437456

126

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Hot sheet 2016

« on: May 13, 2016, 11:39:01 am »

Two bus riders on this week's list:

#2 Kyle Tucker - " Tucker put the bandit in River Bandits this week, stealing nine bases in as many chances in seven games..."

#7 Derek Fisher - "...Fisher is a super-athletic player with double-plus raw power and good speed. The problem is, his power doesn’t always show up like it has recently at Corpus Christi. Fisher has four homers in his past four games, including two on Thursday against Frisco."

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-may-13/#sf2jXIVpclcJHWhu.97

127

Talk Zone / Re: Hitting

« on: May 12, 2016, 10:25:01 am »

It did look like a clear signal that he wasn't in their long-term plans.

I don't know how far apart they were, but there were attempts to keep him past this season:

At multiple points, the Astros and Castro have talked long-term deals, including earlier this winter before arbitration filings. A two-year deal came up, as well a three-year deal plus an option, a person familiar with the offers said.

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/astros/article/Future-looks-bright-for-Astros-but-what-s-the-6829687.php?t=59871226dd438d9cbb&cmpid=twitter-premium

128

Talk Zone / Re: Pitching

« on: May 03, 2016, 12:38:00 pm »

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeyman 2h2 hours ago

Rangers and astros are among other teams showing interest in lincecum #showcase

Also mentions that ESPN is hoping to televise the showcase.  A showcase.

129

Talk Zone / Re: Yoan Moncada and other Cuban prospects currently unsigned

« on: April 29, 2016, 06:35:38 pm »

In what will likely be his final time on the mound before he signs, 20-year-old Cuban righthander Vladimir Gutierrez showed mid-90s velocity Friday morning at an open showcase at the Phillies’ complex in Clearwater, Fla.

The Astros, who are planning to break their international bonus pool when the 2016-17 signing period opens on July 2, had the deepest crew of evaluators on hand, according to those in attendance. The Dodgers, who are over their current bonus pool, also had a strong presence at the event.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/astros-dodgers-show-strong-presence-at-vladimir-gutierrez-showcase/#jOztSay8i5AMO5ru.99

130

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Quad Cities River Bandits 2016

« on: April 28, 2016, 12:52:08 pm »

Please tell me that 27 strikeouts in 63 at bats for Cameron is some kind of typo in the stats.

Does 13 over his last 40 AB sound better?

131

Talk Zone / Re: Feliz up, Marisnick down

« on: April 28, 2016, 12:50:20 pm »

As regards Appel, in hindsight, they weren't going to come away with elite starting pitching.  The only other starting pitcher they would have taken was Jon Gray.  He's been better than Appel (and therefore would have added more value to the organization than Appel) but hasn't been elite.  Aiken's value was utter projection.  The loss there was the loss in volume in that they also didn't get Nix and possibly Marshall.  They did get Bregman for the loss of Aiken.

I remember Kohl Stewart being a possibility in '13, as well.  He's still a couple of years away, but he's looked pretty good this far.  Probably not going to be an elite starter, but he's developing nicely in the Twins systems.  That said, I didn't feel that they had picked the wrong guy that day.  If you want to look back, it's pretty obvious whose made the biggest impact, so far, but it is what it is.  I'm pretty sure Bryant can't through 96 with a plus slider.     

132

Talk Zone / Re: Panic button

« on: April 28, 2016, 12:32:57 pm »

I still think that Bregman ends up in the outfield at some point, especially if Moran pans out at 3B.  Right now, I don't see Moran moving off the hot corner with Reed & White in line to get most of the 1B/DH at-bats (once Reed moves up, of course).  The club seems pretty intent on getting Gattis some time behind the dish, so I think C/DH is where his AB will come (would also inject "some" offense once he gets on track).  Back to Bregman, I don't know how he'd be in CF, but there or LF would seem to be options.  He's not likely to get a shot before OD next year (especially if there's a position switch), but he's a guy they'll need to make room for somewhere.

133

Talk Zone / Re: First week thoughts

« on: April 11, 2016, 12:35:44 pm »

and White wins it.

Mark Berman ‏@MarkBermanFox26 9m9 minutes ago Texas, USA

#Astros rookie Tyler White is the American League Player of the Week

134

Talk Zone / Re: Ex-Astros News

« on: March 30, 2016, 12:32:28 pm »

Human ping-pong ball Ronald Torreyes named backup infielder for the Yankees MLB club.  Carlos Corporan, however, did not have the same fate:

Bryan Hoch ‏@BryanHoch 53m53 minutes ago

As part of his contractual out, the Yankees will send an e-mail today offering Carlos Corporan to the 29 other clubs, Brian Cashman said.

135

Talk Zone / Re: S.T. Roster Cuts

« on: March 25, 2016, 10:11:11 am »

I think Wandy won. surprised about Cotts.

Definitely sounds like it.  Don't think Cotts did anything to not make the team, just came down to logistics and being slightly outplayed.  I would comment on it being a terrible birthday present, but he'll catch on somewhere. 

136

Talk Zone / Re: S.T. Roster Cuts

« on: March 25, 2016, 09:20:13 am »

Cotts released, Chapman and Gustave optioned.  This leaves 40 players in camp, including 12 non-roster players: 18 pitchers, four catchers, 11 infielders and seven outfielders.  As for the final bullpen spot:

[/Brian McTaggart ‏@brianmctaggart 2m2 minutes ago

Looks like final spot in bullpen will be a long reliever: Straily, Wandy or Feliz.
quote]

Unless Wandy is kept around, Sipp becomes the lone lefty in the pen.

137

Talk Zone / Re: One less punching bag at the Chron

« on: March 23, 2016, 02:16:37 pm »

Two new guys to follow on Twitter, if you're into that kind of thing.  Angel Verdejo moves from the prep beat with the Chronicle to the Astros/MLB beat.  Also, Jake Kaplan, who previously covered the Phillies with the Philadelphia Inquirer is moving down to cover the Good Guys for the Chronicle.   

138

Talk Zone / Re: S.T. Roster Cuts

« on: March 23, 2016, 01:17:00 pm »

Peacock the latest casualty, being optioned to minor-league camp today.

139

Talk Zone / Re: First base

« on: March 22, 2016, 04:30:07 pm »

Just third I think.  IIRC there are comments from the Astros about not wanting him to work anywhere other than third.

Yes, in the other 1st base thread:

http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=118395.msg543991#msg543991

140

Talk Zone / SI's latest issue

« on: March 22, 2016, 11:13:46 am »

Think I might have to pick up a copy for the first time since I would stop by the library in middle school just in time for the swimsuit issues.

141

Talk Zone / Re: One less punching bag at the Chron

« on: March 21, 2016, 02:22:44 pm »

JdJO still tweeting for the Chron, but Drellich is taking his shtick to Bahston to cover the beat for the Herald.

142

Talk Zone / Re: S.T. Roster Cuts

« on: March 20, 2016, 11:10:30 am »

This morning started with another round of cuts:

Optioned: Aplin, Fontana
Reassigned: Kemp

More cuts are expected before the Mexico trip.

143

Talk Zone / Re: Back-up catcher

« on: March 18, 2016, 01:21:39 pm »

Baseball America Retweeted
Jose de Jesus Ortiz ‏@OrtizKicks 32m32 minutes ago

A baseball official tells me the Blue Jays started Jimenez today to showcase him to the #Astros & a few other scouts here to watch him.

144

Talk Zone / Re: S.T. Roster Cuts

« on: March 16, 2016, 09:57:29 am »

Houston Astros ‏@astros 2h2 hours ago

The #Astros reassigned RHP Chris Devenski to minor league camp this morning. Following the move, the Astros now have 51 players at MLB camp.

Hinch also announced this morning that McCullers will begin the season on the DL.  Good news for a pitcher on the bubble.  Last year, we would have been able to work around it with the number of off-days at the beginning of the season.  But, this year, we play the 4th, have off the 5th, then go 12 consecutive days without an off-day.   

145

Beer and Queso / Re: Texas Flood: Water, water everywhere ...

« on: March 16, 2016, 09:52:56 am »

IH-10 eastbound closed again.

And, yes, TXDOT is encouraging motorists to detour to IH-20, which is all the way the fuck to Dallas-Shreveport.

Highways 82 and 190 are also options, but not really good options if you're looking at a mass scale rerouting of traffic.   

146

Talk Zone / Re: S.T. Roster Cuts

« on: March 14, 2016, 08:40:26 am »

Round two of cuts this morning:

Optioned:  Juan Minaya, Joe Musgrove, David Paulino, Danny Reynolds
Reassigned:  Brady Rodgers, Brendan McCurry

147

Talk Zone / Re: Who's on First?

« on: March 11, 2016, 10:38:18 am »

Luhnow weighs in on the race and the importance of spring performances for those involved:

Q: Could you envision having an opening-day first baseman who didn't play well in spring?

A: No. I mean, when you say played well, we don't look at just results, we look at how they achieve those results. If someone is doing all the right things and they're just having bad results, obviously, we take that into consideration. But with the number of options that we have, it's more than likely - the person or persons that we choose for those corner positions are going to be people that are going to be performing. (Jose) Altuve can have a bad spring, he's going to be our second baseman. It's going to be someone that's won the job, not someone that has had a poor spring and is just given the job.

He mentions all of the candidates at some point in the article, but seems to be really high on White. 

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/astros/article/Jeff-Luhnow-Q-A-On-first-base-Ken-Giles-and-6882985.php?t=fba159c1f3438d9cbb&cmpid=twitter-premium

148

Talk Zone / S.T. Roster Cuts

« on: March 11, 2016, 08:13:35 am »

Astros with their first round of cuts this morning, reassigning Bregman, Davis, Kemmer, and Fisher to minor-league camp.  No real surprises, but kind of a disappointing camp for Bregman, who struck out 6 times in 10 AB, despite a reputation as a guy who rarely K's. 

149

Talk Zone / Re: Who's on First?

« on: March 07, 2016, 08:28:00 am »

Hinch puts a stop to any Moran-to-1B rumors that might have started rumbling:

"Any time you have a young player that handles a corner, the other corner comes into play, unless it's a lefthanded first baseman," Hinch said. "We haven't talked about him doing anything other than playing third base. He's going to get some time this camp to play third base and I'll give him some at-bats.

"We've got our hands full with our own competition at first base, so adding another person in there would probably be unnecessary at this point. Versatility is a word we use as being important that may more come into play down the road. It's not because he would need to be moved but because it would open up more options."

http://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Roster-hopefuls-A-J-Reed-Colin-Moran-face-6873766.php?cmpid=twitter-mobile

150

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Astros #17 in Keith Law's 2016 Farm System Rankings

« on: March 02, 2016, 02:55:23 pm »

Interesting to see the Brewers at #9 with three former Astros mentioned: Houser, Phillips and Hader

Phils at #8 with two more of our former farmhands on their list, Appel at #4 and Eshelman at #15.   

151

Beer and Queso / Re: Trump

« on: March 02, 2016, 11:32:23 am »

If you don't want to give your vote to someone you dislike, why don't you write-in someone or just not cast a ballot? Why would you vote for an unqualified sociopath?

Exactly.  There are plenty of candidates who will be running outside of the big two parties.  I hate the electoral college, but in a heavily right-leaning state, I do feel freedom to vote for whomever I want, knowing my state is already decided.  My candidate may not win the state, but if I vote third-party and they can reach 5% of the popular vote, it does allow that party to appear on the ballot in every state in the next election and gain access to federal funding.  Small concession, and chances are small that they actually reach the 5%, but it is better than voting for someone I don't want in office.     

152

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Astros #17 in Keith Law's 2016 Farm System Rankings

« on: February 12, 2016, 12:35:47 pm »

BA is airing their top 50 on MLB Network tonight at 8pm, but have 51-100 live on their website.  Out of that list, the following farmhands made the cut:

91 - David Paulino
83 - Joe Musgrove
74 - Daz Cameron
61 - Kyle Tucker

That leaves Reed, Bregman, and Martes as pretty good candidates for the top 50.  I can picture one in the 20's, one in the 30's, and one in the 40's.  I know Badler is really high on Reed, so depending on the others, it's possible that he and Bregman both fall in the 20's, but I see Martes going somewhere in the 40-49 range.  Regardless, this list shows how they came up with #2 for the system.

153

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top 10 Prospects

« on: February 02, 2016, 12:39:17 pm »

BP released the Astros top 10 today.

1. Bregman
2. Reed
3. Martes
4. Daz
5. Tucker
6. Fisher
7. Moran
8. Feliz
9. Paulino
10. Sierra

Worth it to read the whole article, if nothing else, to see Correa referred to as a "deity".  I'm not sure they aren't making up some stats along the way to see if we're paying attention, but it has some good stuff.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28343

154

Talk Zone / Re: Let the Stove be Heated

« on: January 28, 2016, 09:38:55 am »

We'll see but do you possibly undersell Moran? You make him sound like a disappointment. http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2016/1/27/10837746/astros-moran-just-misses-mlb-top-10-3b-list

I don't know, I have a hard time getting excited over statements like "in 2014, Moran's five home runs in 392 plate appearances ranked 9th in that league among 3B" when there are only 12 teams in the FSL.  I wouldn't call him a disappointment, but he hasn't done enough for me to get excited, either.  At the time of the draft, he was seen as a guy whose bat would let him fly through the minors.  I don't remember anyone saying his defense was "terrific", either; the range of reports were more along the lines of "bat without a position" to "adequate".  The Marlins soured on him fairly quickly reportedly over his lack of energy.  Whether that was fair or not, we did buy low on him (not a good sign for someone who was that high of a pick that recently). 

Maybe he becomes a major-leaguer, maybe he ends up having a decent career; he's still relatively young.  I wouldn't block Bregman because of his presence, though.  Bregman has lived up to the high expectations, so far, and while 3B isn't the ideal spot for him, he's a guy that you make room for.  Moran just hasn't been that type of player.

155

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top 10 Prospects

« on: January 27, 2016, 09:35:23 am »

So thus far we have a #1, #8, #11 and #11 out of 6 evals - not bad given the bleed of prospects in trades last year and over the winter.

The two remaining positions, SS and OF, could be kind to us, as well.  It's possible that neither Daz nor Kyle make the top 10 due to their age/level, but it won't be from lack of talent. 

156

Talk Zone / Re: Let the Stove be Heated

« on: January 26, 2016, 05:39:26 pm »

I think that there is the possibility that Bregman will be moved to 3b in the near future just before his promotion.

I would not be surprised. He should move very quickly (and has so far), but the obvious choices of SS and 2B will hopefully be locked up for a while. 3B and the outfield would seem to be the best fits after those positions. Luhnow made a comment recently about SS being able to pick up 3B, so that could be hinting at his plans.

157

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Sad news

« on: January 25, 2016, 12:55:51 pm »

Jose Rosario died last night in the Dominican Republic from a motorcycle accident.  The 20-year old was signed as an 18-year old free agent in 2013 and split 2015 between the DSL and GCL.  RIP

158

Talk Zone / Re: Let the Stove be Heated

« on: January 23, 2016, 09:01:26 am »

Cespedes goes back to Mets on a 3/$75M contract. He'll earn $25M/season, but has an opt-out after the first season that would grant him an extra $2.5M. There were multiple teams bidding on him, with the Nats being the only known one right now. Despite ties to him in the past, McTaggart said last night that the Astros weren't one of the teams (I'm still waiting for confirmation from the Cards, though).

Modified for poor spelling

159

Talk Zone / Re: AL West Offseason, Version 2.0

« on: January 20, 2016, 02:28:15 pm »

I love Correa, but isn't that a tad premature in a division that has Mike Trout?

Yep, you can find places (including the ESPN article) where he's mentioned as the player who "could" challenge Trout and Harper for best in the game, but he's not there yet.  The potential is there, but Trout and Harper aren't slowing down, either.

160

Talk Zone / Re: AL West Offseason, Version 2.0

« on: January 20, 2016, 12:20:49 pm »

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/texas-teams-take-charge-al-west/

...in which Carlos Correa is declared the division's "top talent".

Not only that, but he's also the division's "most intriguing player".

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/67726/ten-most-intriguing-players-in-al-west-carlos-correa-leads-the-way

161

Talk Zone / Re: Let the Stove be Heated

« on: January 19, 2016, 11:11:58 am »

This is indeed the way to do it - if you finish in bottom half and spend...spend to get two of QO guys.  It's a tough draft year but at least you're only giving up a 2nd and 3rd and still have the 1st.

Yep, and they're both good players still in their prime. With a little better health, they should be back in the playoff hunt next season.

162

Talk Zone / Re: Let the Stove be Heated

« on: January 18, 2016, 09:05:37 pm »

No January discount for Justin Upton--$22MM AAV in 6 year deal with Tigers.

Opt-out after second year. Only costs the Tigers a third-round pick due to protected first-round pick and giving up second-rounder for Jordan Zimmerman. As usual, Tigers lineup is going to be fierce.

163

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top 10 Prospects

« on: January 16, 2016, 09:03:01 am »

Couple of things that stood out to me:

1)  On Reed -  Cooper threw out Ryan Howard-upside for the burly slugger.  I would be giddy if he had anywhere near the peak that Howard did.  He also noted the less-than-exceptional bat speed that has been mentioned here, but praised his "outstanding ability to put bat to ball with exceptional power." 

2) On Martes - "His stuff is very reminiscent of Lance McCullers, but Martes has much better control at the same point in his development."   McCullers' control improved significantly last year, so that Martes is ahead of where McCullers was a couple of years ago doesn't guarantee that he'll have better control as an MLB pitcher.  But, that he already has good control of his very good pitches is definitely a promising sign.

164

Talk Zone / Re: Let the Stove be Heated

« on: January 16, 2016, 08:08:06 am »

For those worried about signing Ian Kennedy, the Royals pick him up for 5/$70M with an opt-out clause after 2 seasons.  He'll be reunited with a former pitching coach with the Royals, so seems like a good deal for him.

Also, this morning, the biggest available FA bat has been signed, with Davis going back to Baltimore on a 7/$161M deal.  He'll get a full no-trade clause, as well.   

165

Talk Zone / Re: Salary News

« on: January 15, 2016, 01:14:04 pm »

$2M for Marwin and $7.25M for Keuchel

166

Talk Zone / Re: Salary News

« on: January 15, 2016, 11:33:49 am »

Drellich reporting that Fields has signed off for $900k.  This leaves Castro, Gattis, Marwin, and Keuchel. 

167

Talk Zone / Re: Salary News

« on: January 15, 2016, 10:32:39 am »

Heyman reporting (and McTaggart confirms) that the club has reached an agreement with Valbuena for $6.125M to avoid arbitration.

168

Talk Zone / Re: FBI Investigating Cards in Hack Job

« on: January 12, 2016, 08:09:32 am »

By "pick" I assume they mean both the selection slot and the associated pool money? Otherwise it is dirt of meaningless.

Yeah, they would lose the pick and the money associated with the pick would disappear from their pool.  There was a $30k difference between the #31 and #32 pick in last year's draft, so it isn't entirely a wash, but that is still pocket change when it comes to signing players in the upper rounds.  So, since they would have the pick after #30 regardless of whether they have pick #31 or #32, just let them have the Lackey pick and $30k. 

To break it down, looking at Bowden's scenario, they would go from having $5.7745M and three picks before the second round to only $1.855M and one pick before #68.  To the Cardinals, they lose two high-end picks and wipes out any chance of being creative with their pool.  Granted, I'm not holding my breath that this actually happens, but it would definitely hurt the Cardinals.

169

Talk Zone / Re: FBI Investigating Cards in Hack Job

« on: January 11, 2016, 02:01:40 pm »

From your mouth to Bowden's ears:

"Manfred could take away the first two of those picks, a significant yet appropriate blow to the Cardinals. The 26th overall pick should be given to the Astros for damages, while the 31st pick can just be eliminated."

ESPN article

Let them keep the 31st pick, instead take away the 32nd.  It's symbolic anyway, but I'd just rather let Cards fans stew on not even getting a pick in return for Heyward signing with the Cubs.

170

Talk Zone / Re: 2016 HOF Class

« on: January 05, 2016, 10:27:11 am »

Excellent point.  Good catch.    Especially when you consider that one person also left Piazza off his or her ballot. 

Most of Bagwell's backlog benefit happened this year.   Of the 22 votes Bagwell has picked up so far this year, 15 of those came from voters who voted for 10 players last year.    On a side note, 5 voters who voted for Bagwell in 2014, did not vote for him in 2015, but voted for him in 2016. 

Earlier in this thread we mentioned a writer who is on record as going to add Bagwell to his ballot next year.  Hopefully others will do the same, especially if Bagwell is close.   7 of the 22 vote pick-ups this year have been from voters with similar revelations.

I didn't find last year's ballots (didn't spend a ton of time looking, though), so I didn't have that comparison.  I realize that this class doesn't have the number of "surefire" guys as last year, but I'm surprised that that high of a percentage of gains were from voters who had him as a bubble-guy last year. 

To echo Hudson, I don't get someone excluding him this year, only to add him next year, especially if they have room on the ballot.  We're not talking about excluding someone to ensure they don't reach 100% (not starting a debate on the merits of that mindset) or planning to throw someone a sympathy vote because it will be their 15th year.  We're looking at a guy entering the middle stages of his candidacy.   

171

Talk Zone / Re: 2016 HOF Class

« on: January 05, 2016, 08:58:30 am »

Based on historical trends of Bagwell having a high Private vs. Public differential and considering 2/3rds of the vote right now is Private.     His Private vote at this time would need to go up 23.6 points to 72% in order for Jeff to make it this year.

The vote may shock me, but I'd expect Bagwell to end up somewhere between 65-70%.    And if that happens, I think he'll get in sometime over the next four ballots.  There are about 1-2 Hall of Famers per year coming onto the ballots in those years, so nothing overwhelming the ballots.

With so many voters voting for 10 players, it makes rooting for others to make it to free up a spot very important.   Go Piazza.

I don't think that Bagwell's problem has been voters leaving him off their ballots because they ran out of room, though.  In his five years on the ballot (not counting this year), there have been 10 players elected to the Hall.  Seven of those ten were elected in the past two years, with Biggio the only one who wasn't elected on their first ballot.  So, we're not seeing a backlog of players keeping guys like Bagwell out.

If you look at the fifteen MLB voters, there were eight who filled their ballots, Bagwell was included on all of them.  Going through the @notmrthibs spreadsheet, so far, there has only been one person out of 82 with a full ballot who did not vote for Bagwell this year.  So, if he does not get in this year, it won't be because voters just ran out of room.  On the other hand, he's only received 45 votes from the 76 writers who did not fill their ballot.

This isn't to say that Bagwell only gets in if enough voters fill their ballots or that having fewer deserving candidates on the ballot hurts his chances of getting in.  But, based on the percentages, Piazza's presence on the ballot doesn't seem to be a detriment.    I wouldn't be surprised if your 65-70% figure is what he ends up with, but I think the factors that are keeping him out are more along the lines of the opinions that have been shared in this thread (not good enough, magic numbers, their best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with this girl who saw him look at a needle one time, etc). 

172

Talk Zone / Re: Giles not named the closer

« on: December 15, 2015, 04:58:21 pm »

I don't know if this is in anyway a factor but Gregerson reportedly has a monetary clause in his contract for saves. Maybe they are dealing with that.

Per Cot's

Luke Gregersonrhp 3 years/$18.5M (2015-17)

3 years/$18.5M (2015-17)

signed by Houston as a free agent 12/10/14

15:$6M, 16:$6.25M, 17:$6.25M

annual performance bonuses: $0.25M each for 45, 50,

55, 57 games finished. 2017 salary increases by $0.5M

to $6.75M with 100 GF combined in 2015-16

Doesn't have to get a save, but does have bonuses based on how many games he finishes. Saves might be banned in the CBA, I know they frown upon certain stats. To your point, though, Gregerson does have financial incentive to be the last-inning reliever. Doesn't mean he's contractually-obligated to be (he wasn't "named" closer until, maybe, ST), but he probably wouldn't mind the extra cash.

173

Talk Zone / Re: Let the Stove be Heated

« on: December 11, 2015, 08:36:26 am »

He was incredibly lucky last year.  In the first half (ERA = 2.62) he was able to keep the ball in the park, but couldn't continue the trend in the second half (ERA = 4.69).  He's basically a fastball/slider guy now with a 90MPH fastball.  No thanks, I'd rather see Feliz or Straily get a shot...and he's got Ranger taint all over him.

So did/do Nolan, Pudge, El Caballo, and a slew of other players/execs we've had over the years.

His second half ERA was largely fueled by a 3 start string in late July and a couple of bad outings in September.  Did he make mechanical adjustments after those starts in July?  I don't know, but his ERA was under 2 in August.  He's had seasons where his ERA was better in the first half, he's had seasons where it was better in the second half. 

I'm not saying we should break the bank for him (though that seems like a relative term this offseason), but there is value in a 29-year old pitcher who you can count on to give you 190 innings of mid-3 ERA baseball. 

174

Talk Zone / Re: Let the Stove be Heated

« on: December 10, 2015, 03:01:55 pm »

Please no on Gallardo.

Why?

175

Talk Zone / Re: Let the Stove be Heated

« on: December 10, 2015, 03:01:30 pm »

That's a lot less than they'd have to give up for Miller or Boxberger.

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS 1h1 hour ago

Astros had talked to yanks about miller, but nyy seeks big SP (mccullers type). Houston solved closer with Giles deal now.

As disappointed as I was to see VV go in a trade for Giles, the alternative was worse.  I like Miller, but not at the cost of McCullers.

176

Talk Zone / Re: Ex-Astros News

« on: December 08, 2015, 07:09:43 pm »

Zobrist to the Cubs for 4/$56M.

177

Talk Zone / Re: Let the Stove be Heated

« on: December 08, 2015, 10:28:30 am »

FWIW

Jayson Stark ‏@jaysonst 9m9 minutes ago

Sources: Mystery team making "very strong" bid for Jose Fernandez. Other clubs believe it's the Astros. More soon at http://ESPN.com

178

Talk Zone / Re: Ex-Astros News

« on: December 08, 2015, 08:49:33 am »

Qualls to the Rockies:

Ken Rosenthal Retweeted
Colorado Rockies ‏@Rockies 34m34 minutes ago

The #Rockies have agreed to terms on two-year contracts with free agent RHPs Jason Motte and Chad Qualls.

I wish him the best, he was a good guy who played a role on some memorable teams.

179

Talk Zone / Re: Let the Stove be Heated

« on: December 02, 2015, 11:25:06 am »

Or maybe that pecking order looks like this (so as not to leave out anyone with 1B experience at some level, be it however limited):

1. Marwin/Valbuena (whoever's not manning 3rd)
2. Singleton/Tucker
3. Duffy/White/Reed

As many times as Hinch as shot down Tucker at 1B (when even Conger was getting reps there during the summer), I think you were closer the first time.

180

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Ex-Bus Rider News

« on: November 30, 2015, 12:45:34 pm »

Former JetHawk Mike Hesseman retires as a player.  After 19 years of professional baseball and becoming the career HR leader for domestic minor-league players, Hesseman is moving from the field to the dugout to become a coach.  Hesseman had his best season for HR in '12 as a member of the JetHawks.  Good luck to him in the next chapter of his career.

181

Talk Zone / Re: Let the Stove be Heated

« on: November 12, 2015, 08:06:17 pm »

Sort of....

1. There is no guarantee he gets more (see Nelson Cruz, et al)
2. $15+ MM is quite a bit of guarantee - more than most people will make in a lifetime

Great to have him on this team.

Plus, it doesn't guarantee that he makes $15.8M this season, just that his worst-case scenario is a one-year deal for $15.8M. He could still work out a multi-year deal, so accepting the QO gives him some bargaining power.

182

Talk Zone / Re: Let the Stove be Heated

« on: November 06, 2015, 12:54:23 pm »

Some Luhnow-tes:

"Our rotation is fine, but in every area, you have to look at is there an opportunity to upgrade here? And push everybody down a spot," Luhnow said. "It's highly unlikely we're going to get a No. 1 ahead of Dallas (Keuchel). It really is (thinking about) … are there some options to get guys behind or pair with Dallas to be a kind of 1-2 punch? That seems to be really important in the postseason and important to getting into the postseason...Or is it a guy that fits more of the back of the rotation, that gives us more depth and insurance if one of our guys has a hiccup?

There's a lot of variables," Luhnow said of his payroll. "We've got a lot of arbitration players that we don't know where they're going to end up, and obviously, trades could change things right out of the gate. But we have resources to improve this team. That's not a constraint that I'm necessarily worried about right now.

In an informal poll, MLB Radio asked where several of the top free agents would land.  The Astros were picked to sign the following:
Cespedes (Lidge)
Davis (Mike Stanton, Jim Memelo, Mel Antonen)
Zimmerman (Stanton, again)

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/astros/article/External-upgrades-could-be-limited-for-Astros-6614287.php?t=4f007e373e438d9cbb&cmpid=twitter-premium

183

Talk Zone / Re: Favorite moment of 2015

« on: October 16, 2015, 07:13:08 pm »

Like Phil, mine's biased by being at the game, but the Lowrie slam is my favorite moment. The club had done nothing all game against the Twins and May, who looked like he was on his way to a CG. The boys finally started piecing some hits together and Lowrie (who was coming off a miserable August after missing two full months) was not the hitter I wanted up at that point. My wife and kids had gone off to Squeeze Play, so they were oblivious to Lowrie defying my expectations and parking one two sections over from our seats. But, hey, at least they got bobble heads of Orbit dressed as a Jedi.

184

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Hot sheet

« on: September 05, 2015, 09:48:10 am »

He'll probably head to Fresno for a couple weeks out of ST to work on his defense.

Nice.

185

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Hot sheet

« on: September 04, 2015, 12:29:07 pm »

Bus Riders with one final strong showing on the Hot Sheet:

2. Danry Vasquez, lf, Astros

Team: Double-A Corpus Christi (Texas)
Age: 21
Why He’s Here: .536/.552/.821, 9 R, 6 2B, 1 3B, 6 RBIs, 1 BB, 3 SO, 1-for-1 SB

5. J.D. Davis, 3b, Astros

Team: high Class A Lancaster (California)
Age: 22
Why He’s Here: .385/.448/.923 (10-for-26), 9 R, 2 2B, 4 HR, 9 RBIs, 3 BB, 7 SO

8. A.J. Reed, 1b, Astros

Team: Double-A Corpus Christi (Texas)
Age: 22
Why He’s Here: .377/.455/.889 (10-for-27), 9 R, 2 2B, 4 HR, 12 RBIs, 5 BB, 5 SO

With Reed's performance, he sits atop the minor leagues in HR (34) and RBI (124) and top 5 in BA (.344).  As a 1B with limited defensive value, he won't be ranked among the "elite" of the elite prospects, but after winning the Golden Spikes and several other major collegiate awards last year, then the likely BA player of the year this year, he continues showing how special a bat he is.  I don't know that he'll break camp on the 25-man next year, but he is proving to be a valuable piece for the near future.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-sept-4-end-line/ 

186

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi 2015

« on: August 29, 2015, 05:35:10 pm »

A two level jump to AA in one year by a 19 year old.  I'd say the Astros believe he's a badass.

Who finished last year in the GCL and hadn't made it out of EST in May.

187

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Fresno 2015

« on: August 25, 2015, 02:33:46 pm »

Fresno Grizzlies ‏@FresnoGrizzlies 4m4 minutes ago

Game 2 comes at 5:10 PM PT. Starter @MAppel26 takes the hill and will attempt to help Fresno clinch their first division title since 1998.

Big start this evening for both, team and pitcher.

188

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi 2015

« on: August 25, 2015, 12:05:01 pm »

Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler 16h16 hours ago

Last year, Francis Martes was in the GCL. In May, he was still in extended spring training. Now he's a 19-year-old moving up to AA. Flying.

Went 4-1 with a 2.31 ERA at the Hangar after going 3-2 with a 1.04 ERA for QC. 

189

Talk Zone / Re: Former Astros news

« on: August 07, 2015, 08:26:49 am »

I remember hearing that he had delivered one of his kids, but hadn't heard the details.  That's nuts.  I was about five minutes from having to deliver one of mine in a car at 2 am, lucky for him we made it to the hospital just in time; I don't know that I would have been that resourceful.

190

Talk Zone / Re: Former Astros news

« on: August 06, 2015, 03:34:35 pm »

John Manuel ‏@johnmanuelba 22m22 minutes ago

Looks like Ty Wigginton, who played 1,362 MLB games, will be the new head baseball coach at Lake Norman HS outside of Charlotte

Good luck to him, I always liked him when he was with us.

191

Game Zone 2015 Archive / Re: Astros @ stRangers August 3, 2015

« on: August 03, 2015, 07:40:40 pm »

I'm kind of wishing VV was still in the bullpen.

Or even Hernandez

192

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Greeneville 2015

« on: August 01, 2015, 10:41:43 am »

@GvilleAstros: Kyle Tucker and the #37 MLB draft pick @daz_cameron16 as they join the @GvilleAstros today! We can't wait to welcome them! (2/2)

In a related move, Hector Roa has been promoted to Tri-City.

193

Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors

« on: July 31, 2015, 10:20:18 am »

Who knows, but he'd have to be a PTBNL until next summer.

That rule changed in May:

Well, as of today, that rule has officially been changed. An email has been sent to all 30 MLB teams regarding this adjustment, and reads as follows, as told to me by a source who got the email:

    Please be advised that the Commissioner’s Office and the Players Association have agreed to amend the Major League Rules in advance of this year’s Rule 4 Draft with respect to players-to-be-named-later (“PTBNLs”) under Rule 12(e)(2), and the trading of draft picks under Rule 3(b)(6). …commencing with players eligible for the 2015 Rule 4 Draft, (a) players selected in the Draft may be traded beginning on the day following the conclusion of the World Series, and (b) drafted players cannot be PTBNLs unless they otherwise could be traded pursuant to Rule 3(b)(6), as amended, at the time of the trade.

This amendment replaces the previous 12 month waiting period with a new no-trade restriction of roughly five months, allowing teams to then officially trade their most recent draft picks the following off-season. Instead of forcing teams to use the PTBNL loophole — those don’t have to be declared for six months, so a team could start trading draft picks six months after the draft previously — teams can now freely move these players, which will allow players in Turner’s situation going forward to change organizations in time for the next Spring Training.

So, Bregman and the rest of the draft class could not be included in any form (PTBNL, etc) in a trade before the conclusion of the World Series.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-fixes-the-trea-turner-problem-for-everyone-else/

194

Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors

« on: July 30, 2015, 06:12:11 pm »

@jaysonst: The asking price remains heavy, but #Reds still talking to teams about Aroldis Chapman. Hearing #Dbacks, #Astros, #SFGiants & #Yankees

Sure meets the fireballer preference for a reliever, but I don't know that I'd want to spend what it will take to land him.

195

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Rant

« on: July 30, 2015, 01:54:18 pm »

Other than Nightengale's tweet, what other evidence/information do we have on Hamels' supposed decision?

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 3h3 hours ago

The details of the Hamels' trade underscores: PHI had far less leverage than expected, and were greatly boxed in by his no-trade provision.

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 7h7 hours ago

Also, source confirms: Hamels told #Phillies he would not accept trade to #Astros. First reported: @BNightengale.

Drellich talked about it last night, as well.

196

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Rant

« on: July 30, 2015, 01:10:18 pm »

Or, it could be that when he signed his contract in July 2012, the Astros were in the midst of a historically bad run, and he wanted no part of that. He couldn't/didn't imagine that, three years later, the Rangers would be mediocre and the Astros would be in line for the playoffs.

He chose the teams in October, but your point remains the same.  He still had the chance to come here and said "No", so he obviously had made plans for October that don't involve baseball.  His loss.

197

Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors

« on: July 30, 2015, 08:13:46 am »

I'd love to see the Astros make a deal for Gomez and Lind.  Would solve a lot of problems.  And both would be around next season as well at reasonable rates.  Appel + Singleton (thanks for the HR tonight) + Santana?

Gomez was apparently the holdup in the deal, supposedly with a hip issue that caused the Mets to pull back. 

198

Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors

« on: July 30, 2015, 08:03:04 am »

I was wondering who Kerfeld was looking at tonight. Would have been fun to have sat right behind him. I'm not sure how seriously they could bluff the Rangers by scouting a team that Hamels said he wouldn't go to but it is an interesting theory. Of course Luhnow may have been the one leaking that Kerfeld was there. Are we sure Kerfeld was there? I'm only half-kidding.

Depends on whether or not the Rangers knew Hamels wouldn't come here.  McCullers is the name that comes to mind that would have been the biggest difference-maker.  Is he available?  I doubt it.  But, Kerfeld was supposedly at the Hooks game a couple of nights ago, while they were playing the Missions (Padres affiliate).  So, depending on when the club received word that he would rather sit at home in October than play baseball, the Phillies could have been using him as a decoy for more than just one game. 

199

Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors

« on: July 29, 2015, 09:21:47 pm »

Gomez traded to Mets for Tim Wheeler and Wilmer Flores. Mets were nice enough to leave Flores in the game after telling him he was being traded.

Tyson Ross and Matt Kemp were pulled early from their game, but supposedly it was precautionary because they had a big lead.

Hamels appears to be on the verge of a trade to the Rangers, according to Rangers' beat writer and others. McTaggart tweeted that Charlie Kerfeld was at MMP tonight, apparently to bluff the Rangers into giving up more (which I hope they're robbed in the deal).

200

Talk Zone / Re: Biggio's Speech

« on: July 27, 2015, 08:46:14 pm »

Craig did mention Bags in the roundtable today when asked directly by Gammons whether there as anyone they would like to see make the Hall.

Gammons has been one of Bagwell's supporters for the Hall outside of Houston, so there was likely some intention behind the question.

201

Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors

« on: July 23, 2015, 12:14:41 pm »

HELL and YES:

@Athletics: #Athletics trade LHP Scott Kazmir to Houston for RHP Daniel Mengden and C Jacob Nottingham; recall RHP Arnold Leon


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Wow.  Nottingham's grown into a decent prospect, but that is not nearly as much as I thought they would have to pay.

202

Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors

« on: July 23, 2015, 12:10:56 pm »

Ron Kroichick ‏@ronkroichick 3m3 minutes ago

Kazmir now hugging teammates goodbye. #Athletics will have new starter for today's game vs Blue Jays

First shoe drops.  We'll see where he goes.

ETA:

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 57s57 seconds ago

Sources: #Astros get Kazmir.

Hmm, we'll see what they gave up.

203

Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors

« on: July 23, 2015, 08:58:56 am »

Between MLB and AA high end SP young and under control: McCullers, Velasquez, Appel, Musgrove, Hader, Feliz.  That doesn't even include the years of control left over Keuchel, McHugh, and Oberholtzer.  OF in that category: Springer, Tucker, Marisnick, Santana, Kemp, Phillips.  My view is the SP is much deeper than the OF prospects.

I agree on the lack of match.  Too I can't imagine Luhnow is looking for another young and inexperienced arm to put in the rotation.

Right, the impression Luhnow has given is that any trade they make will be to add players who can help them reach the playoffs and make an impact in the playoffs.  I don't see someone like Gausman satisfying those wishes.  I could see Velasquez being a heavy chip in trade talks, especially for a TOR type.  Outside of McCullers (who may be even more untouchable than Phillips), he should have the most value of any of the pitchers you mentioned.   

204

Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors

« on: July 20, 2015, 11:16:13 am »

Jonah Keri has written several times this season that Gomez would be a good fit for the Astros' needs.

He certainly would have made Saturday's 9th inning antics more interesting.

205

Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors

« on: July 18, 2015, 04:34:59 pm »

Rosenthal adds another name that the club has scouted: Carlos Gomez. Gomez is signed through '16 (at $8M and $9M, respectively) and, though his offense is down from the last two seasons, still would be an upgrade. Once Springer returns, it would likely mean a platoon for Jake and Colby.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/video?vid=487007299683

206

Talk Zone / Re: AL West News

« on: July 09, 2015, 11:13:37 am »

Kazmir pulled after 3 innings with tightness.  Supposedly not a big deal, but you'd have to imagine that any trade partners would want a full physical work-up before agreeing to anything.

Especially as a pitcher who has only cracked 30 starts three times since being called up in '04 and only hit 200 innings once in his career ('07).  If someone trades for him, it will be with the expectation that he can be on the mound every time his turn comes up.  His track record doesn't provide confidence that he will.  I hope he is able to bounce back, but I don't know that I'd want to be the one to take that chance.

207

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top Prospect Lists 2015

« on: July 07, 2015, 04:18:52 pm »

BA with their Top 50 Mid-Season Prospect List:

#21- Brett Phillips
#39 - Mark Appel

A few quotes from their chat:

Reed was in strong consideration for the top 50 because of his strong power production...He basically hasn’t stopped hitting since. He would have been in the list if we’d gone 75 team.

Dave (New York City): Where would recent signees Alex Bregman and Carson Fulmer slot, based on their College/CWS/Draft evaluations?
John Manuel: Bregman is fascinating to me; I think he’s be in the top 30, around where Gleyber Torres ranks (28). Those guys are similar; I’d give Torres a slight edge for hitting ability with Bregman a slight defensive edge, more likely to stay at SS.

Drew (Topeka, KS): How close was A.J. Reed to cracking the top 50? Phillips, his partner in crime while in Lancaster, came in at 21, but who will ultimately be the better hitter?
J.J. Cooper: Phillips is a much, much more well-rounded player than Reed. If you said pure hit I think they are pretty similar, maybe you could give a slight edge to Reed, but Phillips will do that while providing defense in center field and running ability while Reed will do it as an adequate defensive first baseman.

And in the Correa (who was DQ'd from their list) category:

Kyle (Dallas, TX): Time for the obligatory 'what if' question - had they still been eligible, where would Correa, Buxton and Sano ranked?
John Manuel: Correa 1, Buxton 2 for me … I would have put Sano 6 or 7, would be fun to debate him vs. Schwarber.

Mark (Huntington Beach): For strickly fantasy purposes the better long term offensive player regardless of position is Correa or Seager ?
J.J. Cooper: I’ll take Correa.

Jason (Dallas): Correa or Bogaerts? And how close is it between the two?
J.J. Cooper: Give me Correa. Bogaerts is a very good young player. I’d rather have Correa than any other shortstop in the majors right now.

No one asked about Bryant, so we can't really tell if they'd revise their preseason list.  But, hey, they like him more than Buxton now.  The second question is kind of leading, as Correa has more defensive value, with the debate being that Seager had a little more offensive upside before the season.  And for the trifecta, Cooper puts Correa above all MLB shortstops, including Addison Russell, who was ranked ahead of him on some lists (including theirs). 


http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-50-prospects2015/
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-50-prospects-chat/

208

Talk Zone / Re: AL West News

« on: July 01, 2015, 01:27:33 pm »

Unfortunately, there is only one pitcher that fits what you want and the asking price will gut the farm.  I'd guess you'd be looking at a package of Appel, Phillips, Feliz and and another player.  And I don't see how you can overlook the fact he's struggled against the AL.   Plus, you will likely be forced to pick up the option year locking you into 100 million over the next 4.5 years.   No thanks.  There are so many more reasons not to do this deal than there is to do it. 


Edit.  gut might be too harsh, but it would severely reduce the near ready prospects.

Eh, there could be others who aren't being discussed currently who become available (conversely, there could be rentals taken off the market). But, if we just want to stick to Hamels, I really don't think he's going to implode if traded to the AL based on a couple of starts per season (he has had decent-good seasons over his career, as well). You trade for a rental, you get nothing in return when you lose them in free agency; you lose Hamels in free agency in a few years, you may get a comp pick. You trade for Hamels, you get a guy who's been an ace over his career at the going rate for a 2/3 starter without having to overbid. His contract will expire around the time that we may try to lock up some of our big names. You trade for a rental, you're still talking about giving up the biggest of the prospects with nothing in return after this season. Then, you take a step back next season. Why step back when we can keep moving forward?

209

Talk Zone / Re: AL West News

« on: June 29, 2015, 04:20:47 pm »

I'm going to take a contrarian view here and say I would not trade Appel for a rental pitcher. I realize Appel has failed to impress us but he was the #1-1 and I would give him more time to develop. I would deal him for a guy with more time on his contract though.

Same here. If you can get 3-4 years out of a frontline starter, that's fine. But, 6 years of club control is too much for a two-month rental.

210

Talk Zone / Re: AL West News

« on: June 23, 2015, 05:42:17 pm »

This is what I saw today. http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2015/6/23/8829049/cole-hamels-would-block-a-trade-to-houston-according-to-new-report?_ga=1.197702639.1911031477.1357570501

Sucks, if true. I would hate to see him go to another team in the AL, especially to the Rangers.

211

Talk Zone / Re: AL West News

« on: June 23, 2015, 03:48:15 pm »

Let them have him.  His interleague numbers are considerably worse.  He's being paid very well.  Lot of miles on that arm.  Likely hood is while he would be helpful this year, he'll fade considerably during the rest of the contract.  Supposedly this is a seller's year.  Texas will have to give up something real good in return.  I also imagine as payment for the waiving of the no trade clause, he'll want that option year invested.

I don't see him being as much of a detriment in the future as you do.  He's the best upgrade available and I don't see Texas being weakened at the MLB level as a result of a trade.  The next best options are rentals and obtaining a frontline starter is going to be easier via trade than on the open market.   

212

Talk Zone / Re: AL West News

« on: June 23, 2015, 03:42:37 pm »

That report is wrong. He doesn't have the Rangers on his no trade.

"Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi 1h1 hour ago

In other words, Cole Hamels placed Rangers on his "permitted teams" list when he established no-trade protection for '14-'15 cycle."

He can be traded to the Rangers without being part of the discussion, at this point.

213

Talk Zone / Re: AL West News

« on: June 23, 2015, 03:39:45 pm »

It has been reported he would not accept a trade to Houston. Not sure why Arlington would be so appealing then.

When was that?  Not doubting it, just don't remember reading anything about it.

214

Talk Zone / Re: AL West News

« on: June 23, 2015, 11:44:12 am »

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi 11m11 minutes ago

Sources: #Rangers and #Phillies having ongoing dialogue about Cole Hamels, and he is willing to waive no-trade to Texas. @FOXSports

Ugh

215

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draftees and Status

« on: June 19, 2015, 10:39:03 am »

Kyle Tucker winning more hardware, being named BA's High School Player of the Year after hitting .484/.581/.962(!) with 10 HR and 10 steals on the season. 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/high-school/high-school-player-year-tucker-powers-past-brother-joins/

216

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draftees and Status

« on: June 19, 2015, 10:30:19 am »

If there was any question whether he would sign:

Alex Bregman ‏@ABREG_1 10h10 hours ago

The best 3 years of my life. It was an honor to run out to short everyday for the Purple and Gold. Thank you.

He added more in a screenshot of a text saying how it would be weird not wearing purple and gold next year and giving up #8 (given to the best player each year) to Jake Fraley. 

217

Talk Zone / Re: Jakes investigated by FBI for hacking Astros!

« on: June 17, 2015, 08:52:14 am »

Indict them all and rattle their cages until somebody flips. "First guy to accept our sweet, sweet plea bargain gets off easy, everybody else does serious time." And even if there's only one guy, MLB still gets to mete out some serious punishment to the club.

If it can be proven that they accessed medical records, you can throw HIPAA violations on to the list of offenses for the perpetrator(s).  I would like to see MLB throw down a post-season ban, NCAA style, though I know the MLBPA would throw a fit if the players lost potential money due to the front office's actions.  But, I'm sure the blame will eventually just settle on a lower-level staffer with nothing sticking up top, so the org will just face a fine and a black eye.  Brandon McCarthy's idea could work, though:

Brandon McCarthy ‏@BMcCarthy32 20h20 hours ago

in keeping with baseball tradition, a Houston exec should walk into the STL offices and hit their best front office guy with a fastball

   

Wonder what Crane throws these days.

ETA:  Nolan would work, also.

218

Talk Zone / Re: Jakes investigated by FBI for hacking Astros!

« on: June 16, 2015, 10:46:53 am »

You could probably get pretty rich thinking of an practical alternative to passwords.

I'm just amazed that they would be that sloppy to reuse (or, at the minimum, use similar) passwords.  They should know better.

219

Talk Zone / Re: Santana up

« on: June 15, 2015, 07:38:15 pm »

If that is the case, then some players obviously get more chances than others.

The other options aren't slouches, but his defense probably does afford some leeway.

220

Talk Zone / Re: Santana up

« on: June 15, 2015, 07:37:03 pm »

Rasmus plays center most days, Santana and Tucker platoon maybe?

Possibly. Could go with Springer in CF with Santana's arm in RF, also. I think Rasmus is earning more playing time, either way.

221

Talk Zone / Re: Santana up

« on: June 15, 2015, 07:24:25 pm »

Marisnick not in the lineup. Who knows.

That's my guess: .411 OPS in his last 30 games.

222

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draftees and Status

« on: June 11, 2015, 01:16:19 pm »

Jim Callis labels the Astros' draft the best of 2015.  I would be disappointed if they didn't, considering their picks/pool, but he also had praise for other picks outside of 1-37, labeling Eshelman the "best strike-thrower in college baseball history" and noting Ferrell as someone who "should advance quickly" as a reliever.   

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/129965642/jim-callis-5-best-drafts-of-2015

223

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draftees and Status

« on: June 08, 2015, 10:07:43 pm »

Callis and Manuel gushing over his command, giving him a 70, though the pitches themselves lack behind that.

224

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draftees and Status

« on: June 08, 2015, 10:02:18 pm »

Rockies take a RHP from San Dimas HS and all I can think is that their football team rules.

225

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draftees and Status

« on: June 08, 2015, 09:44:40 pm »

And it's Daz.

226

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draftees and Status

« on: June 08, 2015, 07:18:18 pm »

I would love to see them grab Bregman's teammate Andrew Stevenson at some point. If you don't know who he is, just look for YouTube videos of his catches.

227

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draftees and Status

« on: June 08, 2015, 06:38:24 pm »

Tucker!

228

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draftees and Status

« on: June 08, 2015, 06:31:28 pm »

Personally I think this is a talent/money saving deal.

Probably. Probably got him for a few million under to allow them flexibility later. Hopefully, the Rangers don't interfere with any plans they may have.

229

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draftees and Status

« on: June 08, 2015, 06:18:52 pm »

Bregman, I'm cool with that.

230

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draftees and Status

« on: June 08, 2015, 06:13:57 pm »

Thanks!  (FWIW, my somewhat 'missing in action' status around the boards as of late can generally be attributed to being otherwise preoccupied bwith preparing for Baby Boy OSF's ETA on 8/1/15... ).

Congrats!

231

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draftees and Status

« on: June 08, 2015, 06:13:14 pm »

Swanson

232

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draftees and Status

« on: June 08, 2015, 06:07:30 pm »

Thanks OSF.  Good to see you round here.

Ditto

233

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draftees and Status

« on: June 08, 2015, 06:07:03 pm »

Holy crap, I forgot Selig retired. We'll see if this guy can pronounce Los Angeles correctly.

234

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: June 08, 2015, 05:58:39 pm »

Rodgers
Benintendi
High-upside HS player

I'd like for that pick at #37 to be Cameron, but we'll see.

235

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: June 08, 2015, 06:53:11 am »

MLB.com with another mock this morning. At #2, both Callis and Mayo have the club taking Bregman. They disagree on the pick at #5, with Callis going with Benintendi and Mayo going with Tate. Callis mentions the club wanting a HS bat, but if Cameron is still available, they could go with Benintendi here and wait for Cameron at #37. Mayo has the Rangers picking Cameron, so he concedes they could also pick Tucker with the #5 pick.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/129269966/shortstops-remain-atop-latest-mock-draft

236

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: June 08, 2015, 06:45:07 am »

Well, it wasn't much of a hit, bouncing twice before it got out of the infield, but his ability to steal bases is impressive for a runner who doesn't look like he is base-stealing fast.  He probably does maximize his talents and that is impressive.

Make up for some of the harder-hit balls that have gone for outs?

237

Talk Zone / Re: Correa era begins

« on: June 08, 2015, 06:44:08 am »

You guys are all falling for this diversion like the complete suckers Luhnow clearly thinks you are. This is obviously timed so that it'll distract everyone from all the terrible decisions the Astros are planning to make on Draft Day.

No, the real diversion is that Correa won't notice that the club is drafting its future shortstop at #2, he'll be too busy settling into the big-leagues. Sucker.

238

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: June 07, 2015, 08:34:22 pm »

Bregman must have done all his impressing earlier in the year, cause he doesn't look at all that good in the postseason.

Another great game going on in Baton Rouge.

Came up with a big hit to break his 0-for post-season, hitting a 2 RBI single to put LSU up 3-0, then steals his 37th base of the season.

239

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: June 07, 2015, 08:31:35 pm »

Callis/Mayo have an ongoing "draft buzz" column up now, wherein Mayo says the Astros could take Benintendi with a discount at #2 overall, in order to get Cameron at #37. Then again, he wrongly states that their 1/2 pick is "unprotected", so take it with a grain of salt. Might just be his speculation anyway.

It must have been Mayo, Callis noted on Twitter today that the pick is protected. Either way, I see nothing in the article now about the pick being protected or unprotected, so it must have been corrected.

240

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: June 07, 2015, 12:23:20 pm »

@mlananna: Tyler Jay makes his second collegiate start and second this year. You have to go with your best arm. #MLBDraft  https://t.co/K7xFefQKed

241

Talk Zone / Re: Questions for Mike Fast

« on: June 07, 2015, 11:49:20 am »

Mike,

Thanks for taking time, as always. Does the organization have a policy/guidelines when it comes to young pitchers and increases in innings pitched? The question stems from McCullers' situation, but if you cannot speak directly about an individual player, what factors are considered when deciding if/when is the appropriate time to shut them down?

242

Game Zone 2015 Archive / Re: Astros @ Blue Jays June 6, 2015

« on: June 07, 2015, 08:49:32 am »

I'm not ready to declare on Oberholtzer yet because of the transformation that I saw with Keuchel. If Oberholtzer can learn to throw that slider t othe back right foot of righties and get more efficient with his pitch count, he might be able to help us. However, in my opinion, Oberholtzer is merely a placeholder.

Fair enough, I'd just rather he work on those things at AAA. The other looming issue with the rotation is that McCullers may not be much of be an option in late September, much less in October. His career high in innings is 104 2/3, back in '13 (he threw 97 last season). He has 53 already this season, with the minor-league total suppressed by the tandem system. If he averages 6/outing (which he might not), that gives him 16 starts to reach 150 (about 3 months worth). i haven't heard one way, or another, whether he has an innings cap, but I'd be surprised if there wasn't some magic number.

243

Game Zone 2015 Archive / Re: Astros @ Blue Jays June 6, 2015

« on: June 06, 2015, 03:13:13 pm »

He hardly has below average command.  I'd say more like plus. His change is also a plus pitch. You don't have stats like his with below average command and no plus pitches.

Doesn't this year, didn't today. Watching him pitch, there was nothing impressive. If we were getting better production out of the 4th spot, it wouldn't be as bad, but we have to upgrade somewhere.

244

Game Zone 2015 Archive / Re: Astros @ Blue Jays June 6, 2015

« on: June 06, 2015, 02:45:55 pm »

He has a lifetime ERA under 4. Seems odd to declare him done or a failure. I think he can certainly be surpassed, but he might be more than adequate as a BOR pitcher.

On a related note, similar stuff was likely said of Keuchel through his first 200 innings. He will not likely ever be in Keuchel's league, but there are similarities between him and the pre-kickass Keuchel.

3.84, but a decent start to his career in '13 is what keeps him under 4 for his career. Otherwise, you've got a guy over 4 with no plus pitches and below-average command. I don't anticipate any pitcher doing what Keuchel has done and don't think we're at the point as an organization to be overly patient at the MLB level.

245

Game Zone 2015 Archive / Re: Astros @ Blue Jays June 6, 2015

« on: June 06, 2015, 02:13:16 pm »

I disagree on the pickoff, but agree that Obie gas to be sharper. This ump didn't help him though. On the pickoff, Reyes was far off, but it was terrible footwork by Marwin on the pick off.  Not nearly as bad as on the throw to first, but bad. Also, if Altuve makes a basic tag, he saves Obie 15 or so pitches, and a run.

Obie just doesn't have the stuff to succeed at the MLB level. With Hernandez pitching just as poorly, the club needs to do something. There may not be too many options internally, but at some point the rotation needs to be addressed. 

246

Game Zone 2015 Archive / Re: Astros @ Blue Jays June 6, 2015

« on: June 06, 2015, 01:46:47 pm »

He hasn't been real sharp, but with average defense, he's only given up two and might have given up only 0 or 1 with good defense. Not executing the pickoff is another example.

Marwin has been bad in the field, but I don't pin the pickoff on him. You can't start the pickoff with Reyes half way tobsecond and expect the 1B to have time to get gim out. Pitch count has been another issue. He probably doesn't make it through 5, even with better defense.

247

Game Zone 2015 Archive / Re: Astros @ Blue Jays June 6, 2015

« on: June 06, 2015, 01:34:47 pm »

And Obie at 81 pitches with no outs, so he won't be too much longer. The 4/5 spots in the rotation are really becoming an issue. Falling behind by 4 this early is not going to work.

Edit: 82 pitches, 1 away

248

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: June 05, 2015, 12:53:05 pm »

Here's Callis' explanation:

Heading into the final weekend before the Draft starts, the biggest wild card -- at least among fully healthy players -- is Daz Cameron. Several teams have been told that the Eagle's Landing Christian Academy (McDonough, Ga.) outfielder has a price tag of $5 million, and it's unclear whether that's a firm number or who might pay it...

If the Astros believe Cameron might fall dramatically, they could gamble and potentially wind up with three of the first six players on MLBPipeline.com's Draft Top 200. They could take Louisiana State shortstop Alex Bregman at No. 2, grab a college pitcher such as Vanderbilt right-hander Carson Fulmer at No. 5 and land Cameron at No. 37. Houston could spend $15 million on those three players and more than $3 million in the second through 10th rounds without exceeding its pool by more than 5 percent and triggering the loss of a future first-round choice.

For the record, Rounds 2-10 carry a slot value of $4,011,800 and the team's total pool is $17,289,200.  5% of the pool comes out to $864,460, giving them $18,153,660 before they run over.  Giving $15M to the first three picks and going slot the rest of the way would put them at $19,011,800, $858,140 over their maximum.  That is a lot to trim, but not impossible.

For the record, he has the club taking Bregman at #2 and Tucker at #5 (Cameron goes #4 to the Rangers).

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/128740596/three-shortstops-land-atop-latest-mock-draft

249

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: June 05, 2015, 09:34:57 am »

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 29m29 minutes ago

I'll have a mock @MLBDraft up at @MLBPipeline today. I present an interesting @Astros scenario where they could get Bregman, Fulmer, Cameron

I could live with that.  I'm guessing the thought process with Cameron is that his price tag may be scaring some teams and the Astros, obviously, have the most money.  Law's most recent draft had him slipping out of the first round for that reason (price tag):

One player I don't currently have going in the first round is Daz Cameron, which is not in any way a statement on his ability or the interest level in him. I believe there's concern about what it would cost to sign him, and that some teams that would otherwise love to take him -- I doubt he'd get out of the top 10 -- are vacillating. That probably won't be the case by Monday morning, but I'm not going to just stick him with a team for the sake of putting him somewhere on the mock. Stay tuned for Monday's update.

That would be a tremendous start to the draft, if it were to happen.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/mock/?season=2015&version=3&source=Keith-Law-Mock-Draft

250

Talk Zone / Re: Tal's Hill a goner

« on: June 05, 2015, 06:34:20 am »

More players have been injured by walls treadmills than by the hill. 

FIFY

251

Talk Zone / Re: Correa

« on: June 03, 2015, 04:14:11 pm »

Luhnow.

and Huntington

252

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: June 02, 2015, 02:32:49 pm »

I think '76 meant Rodgers is unlikely to make it to the Astros' 2nd pick, ie. 5th overall. Based on all the draft gossip it sounds like the only way the Dbacks don't take Swanson is if they cut a deal with Jay or something weird like that.

It also sounds like the Rocks are a sure bet to take Rodgers 3rd overall if available.

Yep, our 2nd pick/#5. 

253

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: June 02, 2015, 12:49:54 pm »

My money is still on Rodgers.  There is no way any real information has floated out of the Astros camp.  It's not like they are just in a situation where they take who Arizona doesn't, they have the 5th pick as well.  So they really can't even float a we are looking at these 6 players list. 

And for that matter, Colorado and the Rangers have to be super mum on who they like.  Because if the Astros have 2 guys they really want and 1 is likely to fall to 5 then they'd draft the other in hopes to get both.

Especially if Arizona is mudding the waters trying to draft cheap at 1-1 to land a great pick at 2-1.  Now you are in a situation where Rodgers may truly be the BPA, but neither the Astros, Rockies or Rangers are going to say a word about him hoping he comes to them.  And the Twins and on wouldn't even be talking about Rodgers since he's unlikely to be there at 6.

It doesn't have to be a press release saying who they are looking at, but writers do get a sense of who some teams are considering.  Two years ago, though they ultimately selected Appel, it came out before the draft that they were strongly considering Moran at 1/1  That was despite many pundits having him as the ~5th-7th best player in the draft; those rumblings have been reinforced since then.  So, the speculation could be from talking to scouts (that team's or another's), seeing the level of a team's presence at the player's games, etc.  Again, that doesn't mean that they get a definite "we're taking this guy" from a team's GM or Scouting Director, but they may get enough from various sources to make "educated" guesses.  Doesn't mean they're ultimately right, though.

As for this draft class, ultimately, I would still be surprised if Rodgers made it to the Astros second pick.  He doesn't have the ceiling of some recent prep shortstops and he has some holes in his game, but he's good enough in this class.  He didn't have a "great" spring, but didn't have a bad one, and he just seems like a guy who goes to a team's tryout and wows everyone.     

254

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: June 01, 2015, 12:16:15 pm »

It feels like the draft buzz is extremely fickle this year. Tate had 1/1 or 2 buzz for most of the spring, then had a few not-great outings and suddenly he's projected in the 6-10 range. Funkhouser has dropped like a stone. Swanson and Bregman have played well as their teams roll into the CWS, and they have both shot up boards. Fulmer was the hot name for a week, then had one bad game and he's back in the 7-10 range supposedly.

I just wonder if teams are really changing their feelings about top guys that quickly, or if it's a bi-product of all the draft writers needing to churn out new content every 5 minutes.

I guess what I'm getting at is, a few weeks ago many here would've been ecstatic if told that the Astros had a legit shot at drafting both Rodgers and Tate. Now it appears that they could, but may even pass on both.

Yes.  The guys that are dropping had question marks before, but were performing well despite them, or were performing like there wasn't an issue, at all.  For instance, Tate was holding his velocity and performing at a high level most of the season, then saw his velocity drop and favors his off-speed stuff.  So, now the lack-of-track-record questions (especially as a starter) begin to creep back in to play.  The fluctuation also speaks to the lack of separation between players, with plenty of debate even within scouting departments.  So, depending on who a writer talks to, they could come away with multiple opinions of who a club likes.  It doesn't hurt, from their standpoint, but I don't think it's entirely their creation.

255

Talk Zone / Re: Suspensions--No, No and Yes

« on: May 31, 2015, 02:27:39 pm »

He does the sword thing after each big K.  Hitters love it.

Ha, knew that name sounded familiar. I went to a golf camp he put on, as a kid.

256

Talk Zone / Re: Suspensions--No, No and Yes

« on: May 31, 2015, 02:24:26 pm »

I used to watch a lot of Sandoval when he was with SFO, and you're right. His defense is at least serviceable, if not good. I've not seen him play there this year yet.

Didn't impress last night. He ole'd a grounder he should have caught, for one. He made a decent "charging" play to throw out a runner at home, but wasn't anything a MLB 3B shouldn't have made. Didn't help that the whole team was playing like crap and he was playing opposite Beltre, though.

257

Talk Zone / Re: Suspensions--No, No and Yes

« on: May 31, 2015, 07:37:26 am »

Watched the Rangers-Red Sox game yesterday, and boy, the Red Sox are a mess: DH at 3B (Sandoval) and 1B (Napoli-who, for a former catcher, does a poor job catching the ball), a shortstop (Holt) who can't throw (bounced two easy throws, one led to a runner scoring, the other bounced away from Napoli, no velocity), LF (Hanley Ramirez) with bad reactions, and a RF with bad routes. I couldn't bear to watch the last few innings, so there could have been more shenanigans. At the plate, as you'd expect, they have three 20-grade runners and another average runner with 20-grade effort (Ramirez). Tip your hat to kid who pitched for the Rangers (Chi Chi Rodriguez in his MLB debut), because he did do a good job, but, even when Boston did get a runner to third (Ortiz), they were caught wandering too far from third on a come backer to the mound for an easy out.

Lucky for them, no one in their division is very good at winning games, so they'll be "in it", but, for as much as people want to push the story of them making a run for Hamels (et al.), they are a long ways from being a decent team.

258

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster 2015

« on: May 31, 2015, 07:08:52 am »

Well he's got the major league club written all over him.  When he wasn't homering or clearing the bases with a double, he K'd.

What a game for him.  4 for 6, 12 RBis, 3 Hrs and a double.

Double would have been a triple, but he overslid third base and was tagged out.

259

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi 2015

« on: May 30, 2015, 09:03:58 am »

Activated today and in the lineup tonight.

Glad that he's back, it could have been worse.

260

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: May 30, 2015, 09:02:19 am »

Not bitching at you at all, but seriously what fucking language is this?

"Following up on @rog61 ... My gut right now is @Dbacks take @LieutenantDans7 at No. 1 & @Astros take @ABREG_1 at No. 2. @MLBDraft"

His gut feeling is that those two go #1 and #2?

261

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Hot sheet

« on: May 29, 2015, 12:20:47 pm »

Brett Phillips is the lone rep this week, coming in at #11.  BA had this to say about him:

Being a position prospect in Lancaster is a double-edged sword. The high altitude, low humidity and strong winds tend to make hitters’ numbers look great, so there’s always skepticism around whether their performance is just full of air. With Phillips, it’s more than just a Lancaster fluke. He’s a legitimate, exciting prospect with good bat speed, barrel control and a sense for the strike zone. He also owns above-average speed and a double-plus arm. With a chance to hit 10-15 home runs, Phillips, who turns 21 tomorrow, is one of the game’s more well-rounded prospects.

Oh, and here's his line from the week:  381/.480/.714 (8-for-21), 6 R, 1 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBIs, 4 BB, 5 SO, 0-for-1 SB

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-may-29-seager-swings-way-top/

262

Talk Zone / Re: Trade talk

« on: May 29, 2015, 12:05:13 pm »

Heyman with an article up with rumors and speculation.  The focus of the article is where Ryan Howard could go:  The Astros are on the list, but he talks himself out of it in the summary, so, yeah.  He did have some more "info" under his notes:

Aaron Harang, who could emerge as a trade target for many teams, has at least been discussed by the Astros, who will need to lengthen their rotation ... While Cole Hamels is probably out of their reach financially ($24M per), Johnny Cueto is at least on their radar. But one executive says it'd be interesting to see Astros GM Jeff Luhnow and Cardinals GM Walt Jocketty do a deal (they weren't especially close when they worked together in the Cardinals front office), "It might have to be (Jim) Crane and Castellini doing the talking," that executive suggested of the owners ...

I don't really think Hamels contract would be a hindrance, especially since the Phillies are said to want to include cash in any trade.  On Cueto,

Reds starting pitcher Johnny Cueto played catch for about 20 minutes and up to distances about 100 feet on Wednesday. The right-hander underwent an MRI on Tuesday, which indicated no structural damage in his elbow.

"He felt fine. He threw comfortably," Reds head trainer Paul Lessard said. "He's still a little sore from the MRI injection, but other than that, he felt very good. He wasn't really holding back and was throwing pretty firm."

Cueto would be a rental, so any club trading for him would really have to make sure his arm is fine.  Harang would be a rental, as well.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25199194/inside-baseball-eight-possible-spots-for-ryan-howard-and-more-notes
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/playerpage/288900/johnny-cueto#stats

263

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi 2015

« on: May 29, 2015, 09:47:40 am »

If you're looking for positives, all the hits allowed were singles and only 3 of those were of the LD variety.

Another positive is this line from the 5th inning:

    Alex Liddi singles on a soft ground ball to shortstop Jiovanni Mier.
    Kenny Diekroeger singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Meredith. Alex Liddi to 2nd.
    Ethan Chapman singles on a bunt ground ball to pitcher Mark Appel. Alex Liddi to 3rd. Kenny Diekroeger to 2nd.
    Terrance Gore pops out to second baseman Tony Kemp in foul territory.
    Raul Mondesi pops out to second baseman Tony Kemp on the infield fly rule.
    Jorge Bonifacio pops out to shortstop Jiovanni Mier.

3 pop-ups on the infield to strand the bases loaded...MARBLES!!! 

264

Talk Zone / Re: Yoan Moncada and other Cuban prospects currently unsigned

« on: May 28, 2015, 08:04:02 pm »

@MaxWildstein: Source: #Astros have signed Cuban RHP Yoanis Quiala to a minor-league deal, pending a physical. Quiala is a 21-year-old reliever. #MLB

RHP Yoanis Quiala is a power pitcher. Can hit 96-98 on gun. Not much secondary stuff. Supposedly a smaller deal, per source. #Astros #MLB

265

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: May 28, 2015, 04:11:04 pm »

I'm sure this will change multiple times before the draft, based on the nature of the beast, but (from Callis):

Following up on @rog61 ... My gut right now is @Dbacks take @LieutenantDans7 at No. 1 & @Astros take @ABREG_1 at No. 2. @MLBDraft

It could lead to a position change for Correa or Bregman down the road, with Bregman possibly going to the outfield.  But, I'd be okay with that pick.

266

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi 2015

« on: May 27, 2015, 06:01:20 am »

@EvanDrellich: Danry Vasquez promoted to AA. Remember, part of Nash release was that Vasquez and Phillips would be on way up soon.

Both were putting up great numbers, Phillips arguably better. But, Vasquez having a full season+ at Lancaster was likely the tie-breaker. I imagine Phillips won't be too much longer.

267

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi 2015

« on: May 23, 2015, 08:31:42 am »

I think we all know this is a horribly blown pick. This guy might eventually become a major league pitcher but it won't be with the Astros.

It'll be intersting to see if the Correa draft is something Astros fans can look forward to every now and then or if that was a total outlier.

The hope, obviously, is that this draft will be a coup for us, but after this one, we may not have the benefit of high picks for a while. They can always try to acquire supplemental picks via trade, or eventually, losing players to free agency. But, if we begin picking toward the end of rounds, we'll have to temper our expectations of drafting a *potential* superstar through the draft every year.

268

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Hot sheet

« on: May 22, 2015, 11:07:00 am »

This week's edition with another dose of Astros:

#13 - Correa - 367/.355/.667 (11-for-30) 3 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBIs, 0 BB, 5 SO, 1-for-2 SB
#17 - Santana - 417/.533/.833 (10-for-24), 7 R, 1 2B, 3 HR, 5 BIs, 6 BB, 7 SO, 0-for-1 SB
#18 - Vasquez - 536/.618/.857 (15-for-28), 7 R, 3 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBIs, 6 BB, 3 SO, 2-for-5 SB

The comments for Correa and Santana were about what you would expect; Astros in first, Correa should join them this year, Santana strikes out a lot, etc.  Vasquez's were a little more insightful, though nothing groundbreaking: 

The usual Lancaster caveat applies here—that’s where he hit both homers—but Vasquez isn’t strictly a product of the ballpark’s friendly winds. Batting .320/.370/.480 through 36 games, he is a hit-first, power-second corner outfielder who’s always had a knack for squaring up the ball. Still, Vasquez has physical projection remaining in his frame, and it’s easier to teach a good hitter to add power than it is to instruct a slugger how to hit. Vasquez will require patience, and perhaps the power never comes around, but he’s an everyday player if he can grow into average raw power.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-may-22-zimmer-zooms-1/

269

Game Zone 2015 Archive / Re: Astros @ Tigers May 21, 2015

« on: May 21, 2015, 01:51:12 pm »

+1.  Pass on Hamels trade and get Price.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I wouldn't pass on Hamels, the odds of being able to trade for him are higher than being able to sign Price in the offseason.  Plus, Hamels will be cheaper and will likely see his contract expire at a younger age than Price's next deal.  Granted, it will also cost prospects to get Hamels, but Price would cost a 1st-round pick, himself (barring a collapse).  They're both fine pitchers (their career ERAs and WHIP are almost identical) and I'd be giddy to have either, I just think Hamels involves less risk.     

270

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster 2015

« on: May 21, 2015, 07:36:47 am »

Great to see after such a tough start.  He now leads the 'Hawks in HR, R, RBI ,BB. CS and only one short of SO, SB and 3B.

Sure about all of those?  I think you're looking at some of Jose Fernandez's stats, since Reed hasn't attempted any steals this season.  Reed does lead the team in HR (10), tied for 1st in Runs (30, with Phillips), 1st in RBI (31), and 1st in walks by a mile (28).  He's tied for 3rd in Ks (39, with Fernandez, 1 behind McDonald and Davis) and he's tied for 2nd in triples with four others.  Fernandez (who was tied with Reed in Ks), has been caught stealing 7 times, against 5 successful steal attempts (one behind Vasquez).   

271

Talk Zone / Re: Thus far

« on: May 19, 2015, 10:16:30 am »

And the latest rumor, via Rosenthal:

* The Astros, examining a long list of potentially available starting pitchers, recently scouted White Sox right-hander Jeff Samardzija, among others, according to major-league sources.

One rival executive says the Astros devalue their pitching prospects with the tandem system they use in the minors, but another suggests that the value of those pitchers actually is higher because they amass fewer innings.

Samardzija has had a few good starts, but has been fairly pedestrian, overall, this season.  He's 3-2 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with a lower K rate (6.79/9 vs. 8.43 for his career) and lower GB rate (.68 vs .91 career).  I don't know how his stuff is looking, but I wouldn't put him in the same class as Hamels or Kazmir right now.  Maybe the asking price will reflect it, but it's questionable if he'd be even the 3rd-best starter on the team at this point.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/oakland-a-s-running-out-of-time-rockies-troy-tulowitzki-trade-ken-rosenthal-notebook-051915 

272

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Int'l Signings

« on: May 18, 2015, 06:31:29 pm »

The club entered the '14-15 signing period with a pool of $5,015,400 and spent an estimated $5.42M*. They could spend $5,767,710 without being hit with the 15% penalties. Adding the extra $655,800 ensures that they wouldn't be hit with overage penalties, but could also indicate a desire to make some additional moves before the new signing period begins. I don't anticipate them making any huge splashes, as they wouldn't want to hurt their ability to sign players in the '15-16 class, which wIll hopefully be their last one with a large pool for a while.

* BA's list actually estimates what the team spent in the 2014 calendar year, which included the last (least-active) half of the '13-14 class plus the first half of the '14-15 class. So, it doesn't really tell us how much of their pool for '14-15 is unspent.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2014-international-spending-team/

273

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: May 17, 2015, 01:38:23 pm »

It would be interesting to see more detail on this.

There's also a level of context in that kind of statement. Before the slot/harder cap system went into effect, it was easier for a team to throw extra money at a HS kid, because no one really cares what Bud says about spending limits, right, Drayton? Anyway, teams have to think harder about those kinds of deals now because they have to balance things out with other picks. For a team that doesn't pick at the top/have extra picks, losing that cap space hurts even more. It doesn't mean the new system if flawless, or that no one is offering these types of deals any more, but the sample size is small. So, to say that players should sign out of HS or else waste three years is an incomplete picture, at this point.

274

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Fresno 2015

« on: May 15, 2015, 08:51:52 am »

Big time fastball.  Big time curveball.  Everything else is a work in progress.

Changeup is coming around, according to Luhnow.  I haven't seen it, but he seems to think that it's a legitimate pitch.

275

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: May 15, 2015, 08:49:43 am »

My uncle's a Vandy guy so I'm forced to watch them more than I'd like. He's not a punch-and-judy hitter. He hit a ton of doubles last year and some of them have started turning into homeruns this year. Will he ever hit 20? I doubt it. But 15 or a bit more isn't out of the question at all.

Fair enough.  I don't think he'll hit 15 on an annual basis, though he may hit it on occasion.  From '12-14, hitting 15 HR would put him in the top 5 or 6 of shortstops each season.  Over that time, there's only been one shortstop who has hit 15 HR in each of those seasons:  Ian Desmond.  There have been guys who have in two of three seasons, there have been guys who have hit in the mid-twenties, but doing it year-in and year-out is a rarity at that position (at least until Correa comes up...). 

276

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: May 15, 2015, 08:37:49 am »

Callis on what Arizona may be thinking. Like Kiley McDaniel's recent comments, he thinks reports linking the D-Backs to folks like Whitley or Stephenson at 1/1 is a smoke screen. His "gut feel" is that Swanson is the frontrunner for Stewart & Co.

He goes on in the mailbag to show just how weak this draft is in high-end talent by saying that Swanson/Tate would have gone 8th (or at least been the 8th-best talent) in '13 (behind Moran) and 7th in '14.  For reference, Rodgers would have been 4th/3rd in those respective drafts.   

277

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: May 13, 2015, 11:12:29 am »

I agree. They won't pick both of them. I could see them picking Rodgers and Bregman due to the age difference but not Swanson and Bregman. I also think that Swanson has more pop than he's given credit for. I think he can be a 15 to 18 homer guys with a lot of doubles. And Bregman is just a damn good hitter with great instincts who wouldn't whiff every other ab. The more of those guys......the better.

I'm going to preface this by admitting that I'm not the biggest Swanson fan (not at #2, at least), but what exactly makes you think that his HR power is underrated? 

278

Talk Zone / Re: Say Hello to Fresno

« on: May 07, 2015, 02:37:18 pm »

So that's what broke the streak.  Once Justice got on board, the boat started leaking.

I personally don't get the Drellich hate.  The "you're either with us or against us" mindset seems to blur objectivity.

I don't hate him, but he can come off as petty.  As a result of that pettiness, he can lose objectivity.  It doesn't bother me if he grew up an Astros fan or if he is a transplant who cheered for another team, just don't act like you have an agenda in your writing.   

279

Talk Zone / Re: Say Hello to Fresno

« on: May 07, 2015, 01:02:22 pm »

Say what you want about Justice, but I thought this was funny the other day:

Brian McTaggart ⚾️ @brianmctaggart  ·  May 3

There actually are columnists in Houston who care about the Astros. Check out latest from Richard Justice: http://m.astros.mlb.com/news/article/122181832/richard-justice-red-hot-astros-starting-to-believe-they-are-for-real …

280

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: May 06, 2015, 05:54:40 pm »

As well he should.

Yep. Doesn't mean he forgives the Astros, but apparently he does want to wipe his hands of what happened last year and start fresh.

281

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi 2015

« on: May 05, 2015, 11:15:08 am »

Ask BA answers the burning question:

With Kris Bryant now in the big leagues, who is the best prospect in baseball?


Bryan Ramsey
Chicago

BA:

Since the season began, No. 1 prospect Kris Bryant and No. 3 prospect Addison Russell have both been promoted to the big leagues and now it’s well worth asking who’s No. 1...To get a sense of what MLB front offices are thinking we polled a cross-section of upper level front office officials to get their viewpoint. No one with the Astros, Dodgers or Twins were polled since it was their teams’ players involved in the discussion of who should be No. 1.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/ask-ba-whos/

282

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi 2015

« on: May 01, 2015, 02:49:34 pm »

Moran may be out for a little while:

Brian McTaggart ⚾️ ‏@brianmctaggart 3m3 minutes ago

Moran suffered the injury sliding into second base and an errant throw struck him.

Happened in the first inning of yesterday's game. 

283

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: April 30, 2015, 11:56:27 am »

In the same article, Callis has Cameron going #5 to the Astros, with Mayo putting him at #4 to the Rangers.  I don't know if this high draft spot is based on anything, but we'll see if it becomes a trend to see him in the top 10. 

284

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: April 29, 2015, 12:40:43 pm »

Maybe it's just the whole MLB bloodlines things, but the DDS Jr. Experiment makes me kinda reluctant about Cameron.  Probably unfair, but the scouting report sounds pretty similar.

I'm not too worried about that, he's a different kind of player than DDS.  DDS was a burner who had some potential for home runs.  Cameron doesn't have the same speed, but uses good instincts to track down balls in the outfield, rather than relying on speed.  Cameron has a better arm than DDS (though not a cannon) and a better hit tool.  At this point, he feels like a safer pick than DDS was; lower ceiling, but a good chance to be a better all-around player.  Still not sure I like him at #5, but not because he looks like a wasted pick.   

285

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: April 28, 2015, 02:18:49 pm »

Callis & Mayo each with a draft chat via Twitter.  Each took multiple Astros-related questions.  Here are a few Callis remarks:

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 30m30 minutes ago

Lot of people think it's not Rodgers, so my guess is Tate. @EDUBMora74: who do you think @DBacks get? @MLBDraft

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 31m31 minutes ago

Hearing @Astros associated w/several HS OF, him in particular. @webberoo11: what is reasoning of Cameron jumping all the way to 5? @MLBDraft

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 42m42 minutes ago

Keep hearing @Dbacks not on Rodgers, so he could be 2. @acohn1230: Think @Astros go Swanson or Tate at 2, assuming Rodgers is 1? @MLBDraft

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 56m56 minutes ago

Right now would guess Brendan Rodgers & Daz Cameron. Thinking two bats. @breid6791: best guess for @Astros picks at 2 and 5? @MLBDraft

286

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi 2015

« on: April 27, 2015, 06:52:35 am »

Video proof of what happens when Correa decides to hit a HR, from Saturday. People talk about raw power vs. game power, this is Correa tapping into the former. And yes," majestic" is an accurate adjective for the shot.

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150426&content_id=120607168&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

287

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Fresno 2015

« on: April 21, 2015, 02:51:45 pm »

Tyson Perez joins the Grizz:

Fresno Grizzlies ‏@FresnoGrizzlies 11m11 minutes ago

There's a Hanford native/@fresnocity alumni now on our roster. @Timesonperez has been promoted from the @cchooks.

Not sure what the corresponding move is, but he seems to have earned it:  Dating back to last season, he has allowed 9 ER at AA in 41 2/3 IP with a WHIP of 1 and 12-12 in save opportunities (2.09 ERA in 38 2/3 IP last season). 

288

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi 2015

« on: April 21, 2015, 07:54:44 am »

Tony Kemp playing CF tonight (his 2nd game this season in the OF) with the the nice leaping grab.

Correa goes 2-4, as well, with a HR.  Season line of .356/.431/.667 with 13 RBI.  On the mound, Aaron West threw 4 2/3 innings of shutout ball, allowing only 3 hits, while striking out 5. 

289

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: April 20, 2015, 09:45:53 am »

"A rough stint" is a bit of an understatement. He got rocked, time after time after time. Don't get me wrong, I haven't given up on him, and I'm very encouraged by what he's done in CC and the AFL. But I think we can all agree some of the shine has worn off.

No, I'll stick to rough stint.  Between the AFL (2.61 ERA), Spring Training (2.57 ERA), and his (albeit brief) start to this season at AA (.90 ERA), I'm as high on him as ever.  By saying the club might be jaded against pitchers because of his performance would imply that Lancaster is the expected norm from him; that just isn't the case.  He still looks to be a very good MLB pitcher and I think they should have no problem with that.  There is definitely not reason to alter draft patterns because of him.

290

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: April 19, 2015, 02:06:54 pm »

Why wasn't he scheduled to pitch Friday, in the first place?

In any case, I don't think anyone could blame the Astros if they're feeling very gun-shy about spending a high pick on pitching right now, given their own issues with the past two 1/1s, and the general epidemic of major arm issues across the amateur and pro ranks.

So it would not surprise me at all if they take either Rodgers or Swansby with the #2 pick.

Issue doesn't seem to be too worrisome:

@longenhagen: Dillon Tate scratched from his start today due to a strained lat he sustained in the weight room. Better safe than sorry.

What's wrong with Appel, by the way? He had a rough stint in Lancaster, but has been fine, outside of that.

291

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: April 18, 2015, 09:04:01 am »

Kirby out of the game tonight in the 4th with a strained lay.

Guess it really does affect your performance.

292

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: April 17, 2015, 05:01:28 pm »

BA updated their Top 50 list, with the top three, followed by Bregman and Funkhouser. Again, the most interesting information isn't the rankings, but the commentary. While not directly related to Houston, there was this note:

The industry was awash with buzz that the Diamondbacks, who select first, and especially new GM Dave Stewart, are enamored with Tate, making him a potential No. 1 overall pick...“The stuff is top-of-the-draft stuff,” a National League crosschecker said, citing Tate’s mid-90s fastball, slider and changeup, all of which scouts grade as at least plus, “it’s just not the typical track record of a No. 1 overall pick.”

Doesn't mean Arizona is leaning toward Tate, but it may not be a slam dunk that Rodgers goes 1/1, either.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/top-50-draft-prospects/

293

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: April 17, 2015, 04:45:39 pm »

McDonald also had some interesting things to say about Aiken. I won't post all of it here, but here are some  of the highlights:

There is persistent, consistent and detailed buzz coming from many sources that there is more to Aiken’s injury than just a clean surgery like Erick Fedde, Jeff Hoffman or Lucas Giolito from recent years...I won’t repeat the specific rumors, but the worst versions of it say there are career-threatening issues at play while others say it’s just an increased injury risk going forward.

This gels with Law's chat where he echoes the rumblings that it may not have been a routine surgery.

294

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: April 17, 2015, 12:32:08 pm »

See replies  #323 and #328 in this thread from three days ago.

On another page?  Well, that's too much effort.

295

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: April 16, 2015, 08:13:14 pm »

D1Baseball.com, which has poached some quality writers, such as Nathan Rode, Frankie Pliere, and Kendall Rogers over the past year, posted their top 100 HS draft prospects today. The entire list can be seen with a subscription, but the top 10 can be seen without. Brendan Rodgers is still the guy at #1, but #2 is a guy I haven't seen before. Here's what they say:

One of the most interesting battles to watch atop this list is the one for the title of best high school pitching prospect. For now, hard throwing northeast righty, Alabama commitment Mike Nikorak, has taken hold of that title, as he’s come out of a cold winter with a mid-90s fastball and a hard, late biting curveball.

http://www.d1baseball.com/the-buzz/high-school-top-100-with-commitments

296

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Quad Cities

« on: April 16, 2015, 07:58:12 pm »

Derek Fisher homered today, giving him home runs in three straight games. He's currently batting .346 in his 7 games. Still early in the season, but I don't see how he doesn't make it to at least, Lancaster this season.

297

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: April 14, 2015, 09:46:16 am »

Thanks.  The way Ferrin (I think) was talking, I expected universal acknowledgement by the baseball community, but I guess it is either Holder or Simmons.

Simmons is good and is the first defensive whiz I came across (60 or 70, depending on the scout), but Holder is the gold standard defensively in this class.  Simmons has more bat, but neither is exciting offensively.   

298

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: April 12, 2015, 01:27:40 pm »

Is Newman the Ozzie-esque glove one?

No, Kal Simmons out of Kennesaw State is the one you're thinking of. Newman is probably one of the better hitters in the draft (won 2 Cape batting titles), but has 0 HR in his 2+ seasons. He is hitting the ball harder, with 12 doubles already, but he's never going to be a masher (or even average power hitter). Defensively, the report on him coming into the season was that his tools didn't say he would stick at shortstop, but his instincts could. I haven't seen much on him during the season, but I don't see what makes him that high of a prospect, even in this class. He doesn't even seem as good as Swanson.

For reference, Simmons is an even lighter hitter. But, I would take him in the second or later if he can provide that much value at short.

299

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi 2015

« on: April 10, 2015, 08:24:17 pm »

@cchooks: Another single for Tony Kemp...he's 8-for-6 to begin the year. We go to the home 4th with the #cchooks up 5-0

I'll take that pace. Hooks up 5-0 , at the moment.

300

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: April 08, 2015, 11:01:17 am »

He is a very muscular guy.

I am liking Tate, as well.  I don't know that he grades out really well compared to the other top pitchers of the past few drafts, but in this draft, he does look good.  I'd still take Aiken (pre-medical), Appel, Gray, Rodon (as frustrating as he was), and Gausman ahead of him and probably in the same tier of Kohl Stewart, Kyle Zimmer, and Aaron Nola. 

Callis had a few draft-related tweets this morning:

Re who your favorite team might pick ... top of @MLBDraft more muddled than usual, Brandon Rodgers is clear No. 1 for me, then it's a jumble

Crystal ball very murky, but if I had to wild-guess on @Astros right now at 2 & 5 I'd go with Dansby Swanson & Kyle Tucker. @MLBDraft

Allard hurt also, too high for both of them. @DAmadorC: possibility @Astros draft Allard at 2 & another HS kid (Cameron) at 5? @MLBDraft

No, think someone will try to buy low on big upside. @NotJoeMomma25: Think Matuella falls out of the 1st rd b/c of all the issues? @MLBDraft

He had Swanson as a candidate for #5 a couple of weeks ago.  Of course, it's "muddled", but I don't know what Swanson would have done to move past Tate.  Also, Tucker must really be shooting up boards. 

301

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: April 06, 2015, 10:12:15 am »

Couple of Callis tweets/thoughts:

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB  · 2h2 hours ago 
Yes, could go top 5-10 picks @OneOfTheMikes: Any idea if Kyle Tucker might be moving up draft boards? If so, how high could he go? @MLBDraft

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB  · 2h2 hours ago 
Rodgers clear No. 1 for me. Swanson or Tate at 2 right now. @RGBIII: favorite to go number one overall this year? Second? @MLBDraft

First time I've heard Tucker mentioned that high.  But, with all the injury problems, lack of impact talents, not hard to see why he could go in that range.  Second tweet made sense in that light, as well.  Tate has the talent to be a legitimate option there and he won't be the first guy to balloon that high, that quickly.  But, Swanson just seems to be a guy lucky enough to be very good, but ranked higher because of the issues others are having.  Decent 5-10 pick, but not someone I like as a top 2 option.  But, I felt the same way about Moran, also. 

302

Talk Zone / Re: Race for the Lid XVII

« on: April 03, 2015, 02:47:13 pm »

91

303

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: April 03, 2015, 09:42:15 am »

I'm in the other camp.  I'd avoid those types.  The residual memory of their past success/ability seems to cloud too many minds.  I suppose that with the right data, a club might feel that they have an edge, but my gut tells me that clubs shouldn't discount previous injuries more than they do.  It's totally anecdotal on my part, but I have trouble forgetting Jack Armstrong and Matt Purke. 

It depends on the type/severity of the injury. Shoulder injuries are generally going to be riskier than UCL injuries, etc. But, it should be a case-by-case basis with risk/reward factored in. I definitely don't have a problem offering less with the increased level of risk (and think it should be that way).

Really, if a club thinks a guy has a 20% chance of being an 50 grade player (or however they want to grade them) because of injury concerns, how does that compare to the other options available at that point in the draft. If the other available players have a ceiling of a 40 player, with a 30% chance of being a utility player, is it worth grabbing the higher-ceiling player? Of course, if Matuella is right, he has a much higher ceiling, but that's just the way I look at it.

304

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Preliminary Rosters Announced

« on: April 03, 2015, 09:30:13 am »

Lancaster won't have its most-talented squad, but Reed, Davis, and McDonald in the middle of the lineup will hit a lot of home runs. Phillips and Vasquez in the outfield and the top of the lineup will be fun to watch. On the mound, Feliz and Sanudo will be worth keeping an eye on. I imagine Fisher will be joining the lineup at some point, also.

305

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: April 01, 2015, 03:49:38 pm »

Where Matuella falls depends largely on teams’ opinions of his medical record, but officials with two clubs—one on the area level, one a more senior evaluator—indicated Matuella already was off their draft boards due to medical concerns, and that was before the news of his UCL tear.

Ouch.  I don't have any kind of medical background, but I'm surprised there are teams that wouldn't have spent even a 3rd or 4th-round (let alone a 3rd-day pick) on him before his surgery announcement.  I've said before that his back concerned me, but that's a complete lack in his ability in the filler rounds.  Perhaps money plays a heavy part in their dismissals, which I get, but completely dropping the guy in what is shaping up to be a fairly handicapped draft class seems rough.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/dukes-matuella-done-season/

306

Talk Zone / Re: Cuts

« on: March 30, 2015, 07:31:49 pm »

And one spot cleared up:

@Ken_Rosenthal: Source: #Astros add LHR Joe Thatcher to Opening Day roster. Had signed minor-league deal.

307

Talk Zone / Re: Cuts

« on: March 29, 2015, 01:19:43 pm »

I think there's one spot in the pen still even if Fields stays off the DL.

You are correct. I was going off McTaggart's tweets this morning without looking up actual spots. He elaborated a little more in an article this afternoon, adding that there would be a second spot open if Fields starts the season on the DL. If Fields starts the season on the 25-man, it would be down to 1 spot and they would have to decide if they want two lefties. If not, they would probably go with Harris and one of the lefties.

http://brianmctaggart.mlblogs.com/2015/03/29/astros-roster-coming-into-focus/

308

Talk Zone / Cuts

« on: March 29, 2015, 07:46:14 am »

In the biggest, and most important , round of cuts, so far, the club announced the following moves:

Optioned - Dominguez, Buchanan, Stassi
Reassigned - Correa
Told they won't make the team (but, will stay through camp) - Downs, Heineman, Hoyt, Petit

Deduno was also told that he made the club as the long reliever, leaving one bullpen spot for Chapman, Thatcher, and Will Harris to fight over while Fields is injured.

309

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: March 27, 2015, 12:31:25 pm »

I normally like what he has to say, but I disagree heavily with CJ Nitkowski's take on the situation (the first part is Aiken's statement):

    I can honestly say I don’t regret not signing…it was an informed decision based on circumstances only a few people know the truth about. The money wasn’t the only factor to consider. I wanted to play somewhere I felt comfortable, with a support system I felt would lay the groundwork for a successful and long career…Even now, I know I made the decision that made the most sense for my future.

And here’s Nitkowski’s take on that:

    This is from an 18-year-old kid who turned down $5 million dollars less than a year ago and just had Tommy John surgery. Could the Astros have handled his situation so poorly that even now, with all that has happened, he doesn’t regret taking the last minute offer? Apparently so.

    And that “support system” part? That’s the equivalent of dad saying he’s not mad at you, just disappointed in you. Those sting.

What's he supposed to say, that he really should have taken the money and that he had some measure of guilt with how things played out last year?  Please.  Not only does that imply fault in his camp's behavior, but also that he should have acknowledged then that he was a medical risk.  That's just not going to happen.

As for the "support system" crap, what does that even mean?  He felt pretty comfortable with the organization before the medical or he wouldn't have flown in to sign the contract.  Could the organization have handled some things better?  I would agree that they could have.  But, the nature and context of his comments do nothing to further indemnify them. 

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2015/03/27/ex-astros-pitcher-aiken-surgery-hardly-a-win-for-team/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter#12840101=0

310

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014-2015 Minors Transactions

« on: March 25, 2015, 07:49:45 am »

They'll still need 2 more, assuming they do the piggyback again this year.

Not sure exactly what it entails, but there is this:

Evan Drellich @EvanDrellich  ·  Mar 22

Astros tandem pitching system will be changed somewhat this year. More regular routine at upper levels

311

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014-2015 Minors Transactions

« on: March 24, 2015, 07:41:58 pm »

He is also the only one that is mdly surprising. Maybe lingering injury?

I was a little surprised, also, lefties with decent stuff get chances. But, I guess his stint at AA put him at a big disadvantage: 6.28 ERA in 14 games th a 33/26 K/BB ratio in 38 2/3 IP and .327 BAA. The Hooks also should have a stout rotation with Hader, Emmanuel, VV, Westwood, and McCullers as options, not to mention Appel.

312

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014-2015 Minors Transactions

« on: March 24, 2015, 06:25:15 pm »

Per a McTaggart tweet, the following guys were released today:

OF Ydarqui Marte
LHP Colton Cain
OF Jose Solano
OF Tanner Mathis
RHP Francis Ramirez
RHP Vince Wheeland
RHP Chris Munnelly

With the exception of Wheeland, all were either signed as NDFAs or int'l free agents. Wheeland was a 24th-rounder in 2014.

Cain came over in the Wandy trade after being drafted in the 8th-round in '09.

313

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: March 24, 2015, 02:19:16 pm »

BA weekly report on college prospects with a blurb on Kirby:

“He’s missing high,” one American League scout noted. Still, Kirby has shown the ability to pound both sides of the strike zone, leading another evaluator to speculate that the high walk numbers are more the result of Kirby’s refined approach, rather than a sign of more serious problems...Kirby has really focused on attacking hitters with his changeup.

While these concerns are not going to break Kirby, they could make the difference of a few picks in June. This will be a situation to monitor closely going forward.

Callis was given a shoot-from-the-hip question on Twitter about the draft and had this response:

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 4h4 hours ago

Guessing...maybe Kirby & Swanson? @texanfan2785: w/@Astros having 2nd and 5th pick plus most allocated money, which direction...? @MLBDraft

I don't think he was implying who they would take, but it does give an idea of who might make sense, talent-wise with those picks.  Especially with the injury concerns with the top pitchers this season, Kirby seems to make a lot of sense.  That isn't to say that he's a shoe-in for a top 2 or top 5 pick, but he's probably definitely in the mix, at this point.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-draft-prospects-stat-roundup-week-6-3/

314

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top Prospect Lists 2015

« on: March 18, 2015, 12:28:05 pm »

MLB.com has the farm system at #8. delving into the club's top 30 prospects.  Correa and Appel again sit at the top, with the usual suspects following them in some order.  The list does have some more interesting guys at the back-end, though, with some of the recent international signings making an appearance.  Brief scouting reports are available on all of the prospects.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=hou   

315

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: March 08, 2015, 12:13:14 pm »

@FPilierePG: Alex Bregman is a shortstop long term in my opinion. I know there is some split on that issue but I'm convinced

Don't know if he'll be a strong option with either of our top two picks, but if others start to share Pilliere's sentiment, he could go well before our next picks. He has a strong stat line, so far, at .328/.391/.557 with 4 walks against 2 Ks in 61 at-bats. He's also 10-11 in steals in those 15 games. He had a down year as a sophomore, but after a tremendous freshman season, was looked at as a very-early contender for 1-1.

316

Talk Zone / Re: Former Astros news

« on: March 06, 2015, 05:36:33 pm »

Former quasi-Astro Peter Moylan back with the Braves on a minor-league deal, per David O'Brien.

Peter Moylan has agreed to terms on a minor league deal with #Braves. Team hasn't announced yet.
7:00am - 6 Mar 15

317

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: February 26, 2015, 06:25:51 am »

You can't figure out that a guy can play by watching him for five months a year? You need ten before you're really sure? I'm glad Correa's from Puerto Rico. Who knows what calamity might have befallen that year's draft if he were from somewhere north of the Tropic of Cancer.

From a Rosenthal article from last year (you can find similar recollections around the web):

Bane, who is now a major-league scout with the Tigers, says a number of teams simply could not believe that a kid as good as Trout could be from Jersey.

Trout, coming out of Millville H.S., wasn’t exactly an unknown — Jeff Trout recalls the Athletics’ Billy Beane, Giants’ Brian Sabean and high-ranking officials from virtually every other team coming to see his son.

Still, because kids in the northeast don’t play as much baseball as kids in Florida, California and other states in warmer climates, they usually are considered greater risks.

“Mike did the Area Code Games, did a few of the big tryouts and showcases, but he came on the scene late,” Jeff Trout says.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/how-los-angeles-angels-hooked-rookie-phenom-mike-trout-in-mlb-draft-051212

318

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: February 25, 2015, 08:39:50 pm »

This actually belongs in the 2009 draft thread, but whatever.

I was just answering some baseball questions for my wife, and the conversation drifted to Mike Trout and the fact that he was drafted relatively late. I couldn't remember the exact details, so I went back to baseball-reference.com to look them up. He was picked 25th: 24 teams (including the Astros, who picked the inimitable Gio Miers at #21) decided that there was somebody better than Trout. The only team who was close to right was the Nats, who took Strasburg with the #1. Makes one wonder what Trout's negatives were that caused people to pass. He was a high-schooler, so maybe he just blossomed late.

On the plus side, the Angels were actually using a Yankee pick (compensation for Texeira), so at least there's that.

The big thing with Trout was that he was from Jersey, so he was a cold-weather player. He didn't have the experience that others had, so he was more of a wild-card. Doesn't mean they didn't think he was talented (though, no one thought he would be "this" good), but they had less to go by.

319

Talk Zone / Re: Astros Miscellany

« on: February 25, 2015, 07:28:04 pm »

Last year, it was Fowler among the position players.  Probably Altuve and Castro at this point.

Altuve is mentoring Correa this spring, so the club apparently looks at him to be a leader. I imagine they expect the same out of Lowrie, as well.

320

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: February 24, 2015, 01:42:33 pm »

The college guys are getting more attention because, well they're playing right now, but BA posted their Pre-season All-America list to give us a glimpse of some of the top prep talent. Notable "names" include Daz Cameron and Ke'Bryan Hayes (son of Charlie). Cameron has the better chance of going high in the draft, though neither may be a good option so our top picks (Hayes could be an option after the 1st round, if still available).

As for guys worth looking at with our top picks, Brendan Rodgers and Kolby Allard are the guys who look like options, at this point. Rodgers has a chance at going before we get a crack, but he's not as much of a slam-dunk as Rodon was last year before the season. Allard has similarities to Aiken, as a young-for-his-class LHP surfer boy from SoCal with similar velocity the summer after his junior season and a good curveball. Whether he takes the step up that Aiken did is yet to be seen, but he does have potential to do so. The one main difference between the two (besides fully-developed ligaments) is stature, as Allard goes by 6'2"/190 (175 in the summer) and Aiken stood a full 2 inches and ~25 pounds larger.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2015-preseason-high-school-americans/

321

Talk Zone / Re: Yoan Moncada and other Cuban prospects currently unsigned

« on: February 23, 2015, 08:11:37 am »

Jesse Sanchez ‏@JesseSanchezMLB 2m2 minutes ago

BREAKING - Source: Cuban INF prospect Yoan Moncada agrees with Red Sox on a deal in $30 million range. Check http://MLB.com .

Not that we were in on him, but take that one off the table.

322

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top Prospect Lists 2015

« on: February 21, 2015, 10:37:33 am »

From the out of sight out of mind category, let's look at players we lost/traded this off season:
Folty
BA: 101-115
BP: unranked
ESPN: 47
FG: 69
MLB: 78
 

Ruiz
BA: 116-213
BP: Unranked
ESPN: 93
FG: 43
MLB: unranked


Delino DeShields Jr, nor any of the other players lost in the rule five draft were ranked at all.

That's kind of the quandary that the club finds itself in. It has so much depth that they are going to lose guys, but that talent has large enough ?'s that they aren't going to make a lot of lists. I honestly don't see how DDS stays on the Rangers' big-league club without killing his development. It will be a little easier for the others to stick, though neither are ready.

Where the club will see a drop-off due to losing those guys is in the org. rankings. But, that's just what happens; it's hard to have a top-5 farm system year-after-year.

323

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top Prospect Lists 2015

« on: February 20, 2015, 06:31:33 am »

It is rough to see the drop off from last year, but on the bright side, it isn't from regression by the players, (in most cases), but graduations and trades. At this point next year, we could have 4 in the top 50. I expect Appel to reach the majors, but not early enough to exhaust his prospect status. Correa could be in the same boat (and could be #1 on some lists, depending on graduations). Having two picks in the top 5, could get us the others; Rondon and Schwarber sit at 15 and 19 this year and Aiken surely would have topped them, if yeah. So, with those players and guys like Phillips proving themselves at higher levels, we should have more prospects on these lists next year.

324

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: February 14, 2015, 01:14:02 pm »

Another guy who could have someone trailing all his starts: Nathan Kirby.  In a game that started at 32 degrees, he sat at 92-94, before dipping slightly to 91-93 later in the game. He had good, late action, with deception on the pitch, as well as an above-average slider and even better changeup. The changeup is a pitch that has improved and with three abover-average pitches, could help him go very high on draft day.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=10898

325

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top Prospect Lists 2015

« on: February 09, 2015, 10:25:45 am »

BP published their list today, with Correa again at #3.  In a twist, though they have Bryant at #5, with Addison Russell going #2.  Maybe there's more in the paid content, and I'm sure they'll field questions in their chat this evening, but Correa out-tooled Russell in every tool except running; Russell had a 5, which apparently was the cut-off since Correa's run wasn't listed.  It wasn't that they tied in categories and the run tool was the tie-breaker, but Correa was a full grade better with the arm and 1/2 grade better in the hit, power, and fielding tools.  Russell missed about half the season, also, due to hamstring issues.  I guess the one significant difference is that Russell played at AA, while Correa was at High-A, otherwise I don't get it.   

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25538

326

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: February 08, 2015, 08:21:03 am »

I was about to post the PG article myself. It really is worth reading. He breaks down his mechanics and what goes into what he describes as an "elite" pitch that "made him giggle". That label sounds contradictory to what BA calls an average pitch, but it seems they (BA) are focusing more on velocity than the overall effectiveness of the pitch.

327

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: February 07, 2015, 09:24:03 pm »

BA noted the same with his pitches, noting that he hasn't thrown a changeup this season, yet.

Bickford has a chance to improve his draft stock from 2013, especially if he can continue to showcase the overpowering stuff he unleashed in the Cape Cod League this summer. His fastball sat in the mid-90s and bumped the high 90s in a relief role this summer, but he often pitched with an average fastball in a starting role this spring. He’ll need to prove he can maintain electric stuff as a starter—and show more consistent secondary stuff—in order to be drafted in the top 10 picks again this year.

The article also mentions that he reportedly wanted $4.25M to turn pro out of high school. Fullerton can be a hard school to pull kids away from, so I wonder if his demands will be as high this time around. He would perform a big favor for himself if he could bump his fastball back to the same 90-96 MPH pitch he had as a senior, with great life and command. Otherwise, he may find himself at a third college next year.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/game-report-phil-bickford/

328

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top Prospect Lists 2015

« on: February 04, 2015, 10:29:09 am »

Wow.  I guess the 2014 draft worked out pretty well after all.

I hope they focus on pitching and up the middle guys this year.

I was surprised to see Fisher that high, also.  I like him, but that's the highest I've seen him on a list.  I like Reed and Davis, also.

You could have your wish at the top of the draft, looking at this early mock by Callis & Mayo.  All of the players in their top 10 fall into those categories, with two shortstops (Brendan Rodgers and Danby Swanson from Vanderbilt), pitchers from both sides of the mound (HS and college), and a toolsy CF (Daz Cameron). 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/103053582/2015-mock-draft-callis-mayo-call-top-10

329

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top Prospect Lists 2015

« on: February 02, 2015, 05:35:51 pm »

MLB.com also rated Correa as the best hitter among the Top 100. Appel was "in the running" with his slider, behind Rodon, as was still-a-prospect Folty with his fastball (behind Giolito). In a mailbag, Callis admitted that Correa may still be underrated, noting:

As I noted on the MLB Network broadcast, Correa might be underrated, which seems silly to say about someone who went first overall in the 2012 Draft and currently ranks No. 3 on the Top 100. But he doesn't get included in the Buxton vs. Bryant debate as to baseball's best prospects as much as he should, and Correa is even better than we realized on Draft Day three years ago. He has more pure hitting ability and a better chance to stay at shortstop than anticipated.
Correa also should grow into big-time power as he gets stronger and more experienced, so those Rodriguez and Tulowitzki comparisons aren't outlandish. Correa is a big-bodied shortstop capable of providing at least solid defense at the position while contending for batting titles and possibly home run titles. He's a special player.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/108160444/pipeline-inbox-carlos-correa-still-may-be-underrated-at-shortstop
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/107759988/jim-callis-best-tools-of-top-100-prospects-list

330

Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors

« on: February 02, 2015, 03:35:15 pm »

I don't think shifts would have caused the reaction he had.

Maybe he felt incredulous that the club didn't offer a guaranteed spot in the rotation?

331

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: February 01, 2015, 04:41:46 pm »

I don't see how he comes out ahead financially. The Astros have 2 of the top 5 picks and we know they aren't drafting him.  I imagine the other three teams will be hesitant, too.

I'm looking forward to the Drellich article in June that is some Aiken sob story all caused by the Astros FO and their computers.

It's possible, but there aren't a lot of ways for it to happen. The D-Backs have the straight 1 pick in each round, plus pick 74 (end of Comp Round B). We have the most flexibility, but won't be touching him. The Rockies have 3, 28, 38, and 48, though, so if they were inclined, they could give him the original $6.5M, if the D-Backs didn't pick him first. At 4, the Rangers, after slot increases, could come close to $5M without decreasing their other slots. With a senior sign, or two, in the first 10 rounds, they could do an extra half million, or so. After that, a team would have to be really creative to give him $5M+.

He will be picked, he's the best talent in the class. He will pitch this spring, somewhere. I don't see him sitting out the season and just pitching in tryouts; that, to me, would signal a major concern in the health of his elbow on his agent's part, were that to happen. So, I imagine he'll pitch in independent ball or IMG to prove himself. But, the less he pitches, the less likely it is that he gets that $5M+.

332

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top Prospect Lists 2015

« on: January 29, 2015, 06:51:54 pm »

Thanks for posting that, I had forgotten about that database. Luckily, the most-optimistic of the scouts was Ralph Bratton, and that he had the chance to pitch for his guy in the draft.

333

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top Prospect Lists 2015

« on: January 29, 2015, 01:25:17 pm »

Whoa now, pump the brakes just a tad there. Not many batters at any position ever reach "Berkman-level" heights offensively. I think that's a bit much to expect from Correa. Not that my own expectations for him are particularly conservative either.

I'm going off the grades they gave him:  70 hitter with 65 power, those are Berkman-esque tools.  That doesn't mean I'm saying he'll put up Berkman numbers annually, but that's the kind of talent implied with those grades. 

334

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top Prospect Lists 2015

« on: January 28, 2015, 12:23:01 pm »

Correa tops mlb.com's SS list.  By the way, there are a TON of high-ceiling SS's coming up.

Not that this is a revelation, but the kid could be special.  That's Berkman-level hitting from an above-average fielding shortstop. 

335

Talk Zone / Re: The Selig Experience

« on: January 26, 2015, 04:03:09 pm »

I suspect he's doing it to speed up the game, all the time spent having fielders move to the right or the left slows down the game.  I'm all for it.

But, if they're already moving toward implementing clocks, couldn't that just be incorporated into the amount of time the pitcher has? If the fielders aren't set before time expires, the batter earns a free ball? I think both ideas are ridiculous (banning shifts and allowing them only in a certain time frame), but there are ways to speed up the game without eliminating strategy.

Somewhere Lucas Harrell is smiling.

336

Talk Zone / Re: The Selig Experience

« on: January 25, 2015, 02:30:43 pm »

Great, another commissioner that hates us:

On his first day in office as Major League Baseball Commissioner, Rob Manfred said he would consider eliminating the defensive shift from baseball as part of a broader set of offensive-minded reforms, according to an ESPN interview.

'Things like eliminating shifts, I would be open to those sorts of ideas,' Manfred told ESPN's Karl Ravech.  

http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/01/25/mlb-commissioner-rob-manfred-could-eliminate-defensive-shifts-baseball

337

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: January 25, 2015, 07:33:38 am »

Michael Matuella pitched in an intrasquad game yesterday in front of about 30 scouts. This was the first time he had pitched in a while, after taking off the summer and fall.

Matuella pounded both sides of the plate with a devastating fastball and showed the ability to finish his delivery and hammer the bottom of the zone. In his first inning, the fastball sat 93-95 mph and touched 96, featuring plus movement, with run to the armside and natural sink. In his second inning, Matuella maintained movement and command, although his velocity dropped to 91-92. This is not a concern, however, because Matuella had yet to pitch at full speed this spring.

He also showed a good changeup, which was considered his most impressive pitch of the day. The pitch projects as at least above-average at the MLB level. He also threw a slurve in warmups, which showed promise.

Now, the reason he hadn't pitched since last season:

Matuella was diagnosed this summer with spondylolysis, a common and manageable condition. Between 3 to 7 percent of the American population has spondylolysis, according to the Cleveland Clinic, which defines it as “a specific defect in the connection between vertebrae.”

I had never heard of this condition, but the above-referenced clinic also says this about the condition:

This defect can lead to small stress fractures (breaks) in the vertebrae that can weaken the bones so much that one slips out of place, a condition called spondylolisthesis. Spondylolysis is a very common cause of low back pain...

Conservative treatment—rest, medication, exercise, and bracing—is often successful at relieving pain and swelling, especially when treatment is started early. A majority of people can have a significant reduction in pain and can return to normal activities following early treatment of spondylolysis.

If you have spondylolysis, it is important to choose activities and sports that do not place your lower back at risk for injury. Swimming and biking are possible options.

Good for the guy that he was able to start treatment, but I wonder how much this will affect his draft position; pitching 200 innings a season is not exactly swimming. Maybe he'll have no problems over the next 10 years, but I can't see teams not wanting access to his medicals before dropping $5M+ and a high pick for the guy.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/dukes-matuella-impresses-first-outing-spring/
http://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases_conditions/hic_your_back_and_neck/hic_Spondylolysis

338

Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors

« on: January 22, 2015, 04:36:36 pm »

@hankshulman
#sfgiants working toward a deal with Ryan Vogelsong. Looks like it will happen. One year.

Well, there's that. Would have been nice to have, but I won't get too worked up about it.

339

Talk Zone / Re: Corporan a Ranger

« on: January 21, 2015, 11:24:21 am »

Here's a more recent report:

http://rotoscouting.com/akeem-bostick-scouting-report-2014/

Honestly, I'm surprised we got this much for Corporan.  No offense to Corporan, but backup catchers without the potential for more normally don't bring much of a return. 

340

Talk Zone / Re: Corporan a Ranger

« on: January 21, 2015, 11:19:43 am »

The undisclosed player is Akeem Bostick, cousin of another Bostick you may have heard of recently (hint: he plays for the Packers).  Here's a report by BA when he was a senior in '13:

79. Akeem Bostick, rhp, West Florence (S.C.) HS
Bostick has a body scouts can dream on at 6-foot-5 and 185 pounds. He has long arms and plenty of room to fill out as he matures. Bostick is a little raw as a baseball player, but that's typical of most three-sport athletes. What he lacks in relative inexperience, he makes up for with exceptional athleticism. Bostick is a gifted athlete, and that runs in his family, as his cousin Brandon Bostick is a tight end for the Green Bay Packers. Bostick has a whippy arm action and his fastball sits in the 90-92 mph range, but he can run it up as high as 95 at times. He will need to continue to improve his command his secondary pitches, as his low-70s curveball gets loopy and he doesn't show much in the way of a changeup. Bostick plays for Best 9 in the summer and is committed to Georgia Southern.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/early-draft-preview/2013/2614778.html

ETA for link

341

Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors

« on: January 20, 2015, 07:25:05 pm »

...and Colby's career line vs. LHP in 801 PAs is .213/.287/.361, so some sort of platoon would certainly seem to be in order. But it's hard to imagine they'd restrict Marisnick's ABs so much when he clearly needs time to see if he can adjust to MLB pitching. So maybe Carter gets dealt, and Gattis becomes the full-time DH, more or less? Or Singleton starts the year back in AAA to learn how to make contact with a baseball again, and Gattis plays 1B? That kinda makes the most sense to me, although I don't know who you platoon Rasmus with if Marisnick is playing full-time. Grossman's hit RHP slightly better in his MLB career, but maybe that was reversed in the minors - I know there's a site that has minor-league splits but I can't seem to find it.

I find it hard to think that they'd pay $8M for a platoon player, though. His signing may force another platoon, but Luhnow has said that he would be in the lineup. Do his stats suggest that the lineup would be more balanced with a platoon? I wouldn't argue that. But, I don't know that it will happen, at least not initially.

342

Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors

« on: January 20, 2015, 07:12:19 pm »

So how long until Rasmus' Dad joins OrangeWhoopAss?

http://www.riverfronttimes.com/2011-03-31/news/shit-colby-rasmus-dad-says/

"...Tony Rasmus periodically vents opinions (and gossip) about the Cardinals on blogs and chat boards — most recently this past December, when, under his frequent online alias RCWarrior, he shared some thoughts about Colby's off-season program. Some people cheer him as a blunt truth teller with a refreshingly unsentimental view of the baseball industry. Others think he's an attention-starved shit disturber who's trying to stage-manage his son's career and doing at least as much harm as good."

He was, or is, a (fairly successful) HS coach. I remember reading something about him being a factor early in Colby's career, either he was still trying to be his coach, or something along those lines. Don't know how much of an issue that is these days.

343

Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors

« on: January 20, 2015, 12:42:35 pm »

Also in Houston:

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal  · 9m9 minutes ago 
Source: #Astros talking to Rasmus. Reports earlier today said he was in Houston

344

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Correa Prediction

« on: January 20, 2015, 12:41:16 pm »

Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis were hanging by the water cooler, shooting the bull, and wondered who would lead the minors in average this season.  Mayo picked some guy named Jesse (don't call me Henry) Winkler, Callis went with Correa.  The article's a decent way to kill a few minutes, but this line by Callis was what stuck out most to me:

By contrast, Correa looks like he can't miss. He has all of the makings of a superstar shortstop, and the worst-case scenario appears to be an All-Star third baseman.

http://m.astros.mlb.com/news/article/106895050/jim-callis-carlos-correa-will-have-minors-top-average

345

Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors

« on: January 19, 2015, 10:24:43 am »

Passan said Luis Valbuena also involved.

Looks like they've found their 3B, though one defensive metrics don't like. So, two years of Valbuena and five years of Straily for one of Fowler.

346

Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors

« on: January 19, 2015, 10:00:36 am »

@Ken_Rosenthal: Source: #Astros’ return for Fowler from #Cubs includes major-league players.

347

Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors

« on: January 18, 2015, 04:59:54 pm »

Nationals and "1 other team" believed to be in heavy discussions for Scherzer on a 7-year deal, per Rosenthal/Morosi tweets. The Nationals have supposedly been shopping Zimmerman for a few weeks in the event that they do sign Scherzer.

348

Talk Zone / Re: Best Offseason Since...?

« on: January 18, 2015, 04:54:47 pm »

Time Warner Cable has until Opening Day to add Root Sports if they want to keep me.

On the other side of the coin, there's Time Warner and their major issues finding customers for the Dodgers. Market-size differences notwithstanding, having only 30% of the market on an $8.35B tv deal is less than ideal for the telecom, the club, or the fans. Dodgers ownership isn't looking to renegotiate the deal, so they're pretty much at a stand-still, possibly even after the pending mergers.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/dodgersnow/la-sp-dn-dodgers-tv-20150117-story.html

349

Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors

« on: January 18, 2015, 02:39:54 pm »

Rangers on verge of trading for Gallardo, per Rosenthal:

#Rangers on verge of trading for #Brewers’ Yovani Gallardo, sources tell me and @jonmorosi.

We'll see who they give up, but on the surface, this makes the West even stronger.

350

Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors

« on: January 15, 2015, 07:07:34 pm »

Astros and Rangers discussing a trade for Corporan:

Every indication is that the Astros’ preference is to trade Corporan instead of starter Jason Castro. Conger is the team’s other major league catcher, but the Astros added him only this winter and did so with the intent of using him, not flipping him.

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2015/01/15/astros-talking-carlos-corporan-trade-with-rangers/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

351

Talk Zone / Re: Non-Roster Invitees

« on: January 15, 2015, 08:43:29 am »

Has there been any news about Japhet Amador?  I thought I would see him on this list.

Also, Hoyt has some pretty impressive strikeout numbers.

I thought they basically cut ties with him last season.

352

Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors

« on: January 15, 2015, 06:10:58 am »

One of the down sides of the Astros having a play for the future plan is that fans start following the minors closely and start falling in love with prospects.  The result is that when they are mentioned in trades, the fans have conniption fits.  

I hate to lose Folty and Ruiz.  But you can't just keep them on the farm forever and you only have a 25 man roster so you have to do something with the prospects you have stockpiled.

 

Folty, I figured that he might be traded during the off-season, especially once they added depth to the bullpen. Not that I had given up on him, by any means, but with his command struggles and secondary struggles, I was okay if he was traded.

Ruiz, I wasn't as ready to see leave. I like him more than Moran and thought he could provide a left-handed power bat that the lineup currently is missing (at least one that can hit for average). But, it was getting crowded with him and Moran vying for playing time at presumably the same level. The Lowrie signing only exacerbated the numbers crunch. So, I get it, but yeah, it still stings a little.

Luhnow was quoted as saying that this probably won't be the last of these types of deals. I don't think he was referring to this offseason, particularly, but we should probably anticipate more moves like this in the future and the sting that accompanies them.

353

Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors

« on: January 14, 2015, 01:12:34 pm »

Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale 6m6 minutes ago

The #Astros have brought #Braves catcher Evan Gattis into Houston for a physical today. They are one of 3 teams aggressively pursuing him.

I'm glad that Luhnow is looking to address the glaring lack of catchers in the organization. 

354

Talk Zone / Re: Former Astros news

« on: January 10, 2015, 01:08:07 pm »

Ben Zobrist is part of a trade between the Rays and A's.

@Ken_Rosenthal: Full trade, as first reported by @susanslusser: Zobrist and Y. Escobar to #Athletics for Jaso, SS Daniel Robertson and OF Boog Powell.

Good deal for the A's. I'm sure Crane and Luhnow are now feeling the pressure to go all-out for an ace starter. *cough* Scherzer *cough*

355

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top Prospect Lists 2015

« on: December 24, 2014, 01:05:43 pm »

Interesting in that there aren't many OFers on that list.

Yeah, you could make a case that Bryant will be in the outfield before long, especially if the Cubs hold on to all of Castro, Baez, Almora, Russell, and Bryant (or even three of the five). But, there doesn't seem to be overwhelming amount of talent in the minors in the outfield, right now (though, I don't keep up with prospects as much as I used to).

I also found it interesting that the list had four SS. I don't know a lot about Seager, but it sounds like he could move off shortstop. Even if he does, you're still left with three legitimate MLB shortstops in the top five, though. That's pretty impressive.

356

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top Prospect Lists 2015

« on: December 23, 2014, 02:36:38 pm »

Bernie Pleskoff, from MLB.com, posted his top 10 list for the minors, with Correa coming in at #2. He has Bryant at #1 and Buxton at #3, for reference. Those three will probably be in some order on most of the lists that come out. I don't anticipate Correa sitting at #1 on many, but I can see him at #2 on several lists. Pleskoff did consider Correa for the top spot and knocked Buxton for his inability to stay healthy, so far, also stating that he doubts he can live up to the lofty expectations many have placed on him. He still thinks he'll be a star, but not the perennial MVP candidate that others predict.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/104792060/bernie-pleskoffs-picks-top-10-prospects

357

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Jacob Nix Settlement

« on: December 17, 2014, 07:54:52 am »

This worked out pretty damn good for Nix.  He holds out for overslot money, gets paid $1.5MM, goes and plays junior college ball for a year (at the least), then re-enters the draft and gets another bonus.  Must be nice.

I can't believe Houston actually paid him the bonus, but maybe they thought they would get some good will out of it, or possibly they thought it wasn't the risk that they lose the grievance and maybe two 1st round picks.

I think the second paragraph pretty much sums it up. The club may not have done anything wrong in the eyes of MLB, but if the arbiter ruled in favor of Nix, they could have lost a lot more in baseball currency than cash.

358

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Minor-league Free Agent Signings

« on: December 16, 2014, 01:04:19 pm »

Cabrera'd.

Well, that's a stupid name for a thread where posters can find out about signing minor-league players.  *crawls back into hole*

359

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Minor-league Free Agent Signings

« on: December 16, 2014, 06:16:52 am »

Astros made their first signing yesterday (that I've come across, at least), picking up former A and Ray Dan Johnson. He'll likely man 1B for Fresno this season.

360

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top Prospect Lists 2015

« on: December 15, 2014, 03:24:33 pm »

Nash=Carter?

One thing that strikes me about the top 25 (I've eliminated Tropeano from the discussion) is that it is heavier towards position players than pitchers. I would prefer to see a better balance especially since Luhnow has been dealing from pitching as a stated strength. Of course I'm probably just nit-picking since it's the off-season and there is nothing else to complain about.

Carter was a much better hitter as a farmhand. He was a career .283 hitter in the minors and was a guy who would strike out once in every four AB. After destroying AA in '09 to a tune of .337/.435/.576 at 22 (119K in 593 AB), he was ranked as high as #11 (BP) or #28 (BA) in the minors. I wish Nash could be as big of a deal as Carter was.

The ironic thing is that the drafts under Luhnow have felt heavier in pitching. I know they grabbed Reed, Fisher, and Davis early in last year's draft, but overall, it seems like they have put a premium on stocking up on pitching. Largely, I think this a by-product of the types of pitchers they have targeted. When you go after college pitchers who don't have huge stuff, you may end up with a bunch of guys who fill out the back-end of a top-20 list in a good system. I think that is where we are. That doesn't mean that we don't have several pitchers who could viable options in a MLB rotation, they may just be more #4/#5 types. Of course, if 2014's draft had turned out differently, we may be having a different discussion.

361

Talk Zone / Re: Welcome back, Jed

« on: December 15, 2014, 03:14:56 pm »

I don't think it's a coincidence that he went shortly after Headley, who said he left the highest offer on the table. I'm okay with the deal; I'm not excited, but I don't hate it. I think it's the length of the deal more than anything that I wish they could decrease. The versatility is nice and I think he'll be a good influence in the clubhouse, I just see him as a short-term upgrade at SS and insurance policy at 3B.

362

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top Prospect Lists 2015

« on: December 13, 2014, 07:34:28 am »

Rollins may be polished enough to stick. The fact that he is LH increases the likelihood ( I think) as he could be a situation guy out of the pen for a year. Interesting that the Astros protected Torreyes over DDS.

I get what you're saying about DDS; ceiling-wise, he has much more potential. I think it boils down to who they thought was more likely to contribute this season at the MLB level. Torreyes was successful at AAA last season and has a legitimate shot of being a good utility player this season. DDS is a guy who is basically going to hold a roster spot on the bench until he can be sent down for 2016, unless the Rangers trade for him. Really, he's at least one full season of development away from being ready for a big-league job, I don't see how hiding him in the dugout does anything other than stunt his growth as a player.

363

Talk Zone / Re: Former Astros news

« on: December 11, 2014, 07:51:11 am »

And this fellow doesn't like what the Marlins did. http://www.astroscounty.com/2014/12/what-fudge-are-marlins-thinking.html

And be sure to scroll down to see what Cosart thought of his team's deal.

Timestamp on Cosart's tweet was from two years ago.  Different deal and before he was a member of that organization. 

364

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Rule 5

« on: December 11, 2014, 05:55:13 am »

With the pen signings, the 40-man stands at 40, making it unlikely we take anyone.

365

Talk Zone / Re: Welcome Luke Gregerson

« on: December 10, 2014, 09:20:06 am »

"closing in" on Neshek, too

Would be two-year deal, according to Bob Nightengale.  Fields, Sipp, Qualls, Neshek, Gregerson; I'll start a bullpen with that.

366

Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors

« on: December 09, 2014, 06:09:33 am »

At least Veras wants to sign with us? Oh, and he hated being with the Cubs.

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2014/12/08/luhnow-says-astros-absolutely-open-to-bringing-back-jose-veras/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

367

Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors

« on: December 08, 2014, 10:59:30 am »

McTaggart McTweets:  Multiple sources say the Astros have been pursuing SS Jed Lowrie.

May be the first time a sales pitch starts with "You know we fired our manager."

368

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: December 08, 2014, 09:16:16 am »

Going off the above list, the top college guys that project to hit for power are Gio Brusa (#34) and Chris Shaw (#39). Obviously, the industry consensus will change a lot between now and June, but you also have to wonder if teams will grab them higher simply because of the scarcity of college power (and good college hitters overall). Maybe even work out below-slot deals like the Cubs did with Schwarber this year.

Maybe, but that was also a theme this year.  The catch with Reed and Davis was that they didn't have a lot of positional value.  If Davis was considered a 3B entering the draft, he may have gone a little higher, but he was stuck behind a very good defensive 3B on the depth chart.  So, he didn't have a lot of opportunity to play there.  He's not Brooks Robinson over there now, but he's at least getting a shot to show he can handle a more demanding position. 

369

Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors

« on: December 07, 2014, 11:20:15 am »

They need to identify ranching relief pitchers. Bound to be some.

I'm sure there's some kind of metric for that. On a semi-related front:

@Buster_ESPN: The Astros continue to pursue closer David Robertson. Could be his most lucrative offer comes from Houston.

Nothing new, nothing definitive, and nothing indicating interest on Robertson's part. But, it does sound like he's their top target right now.

370

Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors

« on: December 06, 2014, 11:04:01 am »

Rosenthal with an interesting proposition:

The Astros made a four-year, $40 million bid for Miller, sources say. They could redirect that offer toward free-agent closer David Robertson -- or perhaps sign Romo and Gregerson for what they would have paid Miller. New Astros manager A.J. Hinch was part of the Padres' front office when Gregerson pitched in San Diego.

I do like the idea of signing both guys, the only downside (which was reinforced with the Miller situation) is convincing both to sign with us.

[urlwww.foxsports.com/mlb/story/andrew-miller-sergio-romo-luke-gregerson-hot-stove-market-for-other-setup-men-heating-up-120614][/url]

371

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: December 05, 2014, 10:48:27 am »

Aiken's draft slot will be quite telling with regards to discerning whether or not the Astros were jerking him around. 

Depending on how high he goes, it may only be telling of how one club feels the Astros handled the situation.  Since other clubs won't have access to his medical records, if they feel he's the best option, even weighing possible medical problems, he could go pretty high.  That doesn't mean Luhnow handled the situation wrongly, just that another club may have handled it differently. 

372

Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors

« on: December 03, 2014, 06:14:34 pm »

That Fowler fellow is a popular dude. Morosi tweeting that Blue Jays have had discussions with stros.

Blue Jays trade Happ for Michael Saunders, so I guess this ends their pursuit of Fowler.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/mariners-blue-jays-swap-michael-saunders-j-a-happ.html

ETA: I'm calling Cabrera on myself, but it does have the Fowler angle.

373

Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors

« on: December 01, 2014, 01:51:07 pm »

The Astros’ pursuit of Robertson has created a lot of buzz in the last 24 hours, with reports from CBS Sports and the New York Post tying the team to the reliever. Some reports had the Astros offering a three-year, $39 million deal for Robertson. A source confirmed to the Chronicle that the Astros have had consistent contact with Robertson.

But the Astros too are among the many teams to express interest in Andrew Miller, the Chronicle was told by a person familiar with the situation.

It makes sense that they would reach out to Miller, also, if they're making offers to Robertson.  I'm not a fan of spending that much on a reliever right now, but I can see where long-term, with the budget continually increasing and core of low-cost players, it won't be a major impediment.  I would just rather they commit more toward position players and starters right now.

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2014/12/01/astros-looking-at-andrew-miller-as-potential-closer/

374

Talk Zone / Re: Trade rumors

« on: November 27, 2014, 07:00:18 pm »

The reds already have billy Hamilton in CF.  Pads would be a good match for need.  I just had a flick through the rosters  - one option could be the Dodgers in a Kemp for Castro and Fowler type deal.  I don't know if that's enough or even realistic given the lack of MLB only type deals which are done.

Reds may not be able to add payroll. Supposedly, they're considering trading Bruce (and others) to build for the future.

375

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Top Prospect Lists 2015

« on: November 25, 2014, 10:08:11 am »

Folty doesn't have an 80 fastball.  One day, he might have a 70 fastball, but he doesn't even have that at this point.  If ratings/grades are to mean anything, they must convey usefulness on a MLB diamond.  Putting a gun on a fastball and acting like it is any more than a number on a screen is superficial, and doesn't fully convey how good the pitch is. 

If I am a GM, looking to acquire a player, I need information on how effective that player is, will likely be, or possibly might be.  I can't survive with measures saying a FB is generationally elite, then put the guy on the mound and watch that elite fastball regularly get squared. 

To be fair, they (BA/MLB.com) do put present and future grades on players in their handbook/lists. Looking at prospects, what good is to judge them based just on where they are currently? Tools "arrive" at different rates: power and command being the last to show up in games. That's why Correa can get a 65 power grade, though he's never come close to that in games, yet.

I think that what you're wanting is command/control being scrapped entirely as separate tools and incorporated as part of the package for each pitch. That's fine, and all, but for a quick-look format, it's easier to see that a player has this kind of velocity/movement/bite on a pitch (pitch grade), but has command problems (separate tool), than to explain all of that in one grade.

I really wouldn't think a GM would find himself in a position where he's only relying on a few scouting grades to make a decision. If so, shame on him and shame on his scouts.

376

Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors

« on: November 24, 2014, 07:32:25 am »

BlowSox possibly moving toward an agreement with Hanley Ramirez.

Heyman is now reporting that they also have a deal to secure the rights of Kung Fu Panda, as well. 

377

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Rule 5

« on: November 21, 2014, 11:29:04 am »

Drellich seemed to be going for views of the article with how he wrote it. He only talked from one side of a deal the Astros could have made. He talked about how it would have to be big in order for all of the pieces to fall right with the 40 man and adding or not Feliz.  He never surmises that if Feliz were part of a deal that the receiving team might need him off the 40-man at the time of the deal in order to made appropriate 40-man moves after the deal to add Feliz.  Which would be why the Astros waited until the last minute to add him.

I was thinking there was a reason tied to the 40-man where it would make sense to leave Feliz off, but could not think of how.  That would be it.

378

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Rule 5

« on: November 20, 2014, 07:56:55 pm »

Bottom line (my impression) is it's not about Feliz vs. Krauss or whoever, but Feliz vs. some other player that will need to be added in the next year because they need him on the Major League roster. Even if Feliz makes it from Lancaster to Corpus by the end of 2015, he's still a longshot to contribute in the majors before 2017; meanwhile, they'll have to burn an option year on him, and be restricted by having less space on the 40-man for shuttling guys from AAA to MLB. If he doesn't stick with another team all year, they get him back, and don't have to add him until a year from now.

Yep. Of the guys left unprotected, how many would remain on a team's 25-man all season? It's a gamble. But, he none have impact potential in '15. Leaving them unprotected makes a lot more sense than someone like Fields.

379

Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors

« on: November 18, 2014, 08:53:43 pm »

Anderson would be an excellent pick-up if he weren't the Operation guy: TJ, back, foot, oblique (all he needs is butterflies in the stomach). He'd probably be looking at Lester-money, if he gave you 200 innings/season, though. I think he's a great pitcher, I just wonder what it would take to get him and what we would get out of him.

380

Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors

« on: November 14, 2014, 08:19:40 am »

I have nothing to back up this opinion, but I feel like signing "top closers" to multi-year deals rarely works out.

Yep, I can think of Mariano and then...  They may be serviceable over the course of their contracts, but expecting them to maintain sub-2.50 ERA (or whatever) and healthy every year doesn't seem to be a winning proposition.

381

Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors

« on: November 12, 2014, 03:40:09 pm »

Yes and yes.  You are getting years 31+  While he'll likely be able to maintain a near 800 OPS next year.  In 2 years it will be closer to 700 than 800.  And at that point if someone would take the remaining contract off your hands consider yourself lucky.

How do you get your figures?  How do you know he'll drop off in his age-32 season?  Anyway, he's only had one season below .750 and every home game he has played in his MLB career (minus 2 AB as a rookie in Boston) has been in very pitcher-friendly parks.  I don't expect another 1.000 OPS season out of him, but I don't expect a major regression this soon, either.  I'm also looking at him on a 4-year deal, rather than 5, for what it's worth.

382

Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors

« on: November 12, 2014, 11:05:32 am »

Only way I could see Hanley making sense is a front loaded contract with the aspiration of trading him after 1 or 2 years.  Like a 25, 22.5, 20, 17.5, 15

They front loaded Feldman's contract.  If he does well this year he could be a real nice trade chip in July or the 2015-16 offseason.  (His contract: 12, 10,

Year 3 looks promising for Feldman. 

Why do you see the best option being that he's traded after 1 or 2 years?  Do you see it as Ruiz/Moran will outperform him or a payroll-flexibility issue? 

383

Talk Zone / Re: Free agent rumors

« on: November 11, 2014, 02:56:29 pm »

ETA
I could see starting him at AA, and if he hits there a June promotion to AAA then maybe July.  But that would be rushing it.  Is there any precedence for a guy skipping AA and AAA?  (Any successful precedence)


ETA2
If the alternative is bringing in Hanley for north of 20 million per for 5 plus years then "Welcome to Houston, Carlos".

Not AA and AAA, but...

Evan Drellich ‏@EvanDrellich 1h1 hour ago

Jeff Luhnow says Carlos Correa and Mark Appel are both talents that could skip Triple A - could. Not necessarily will, could.

Any scenario involving Hanley I envision would have him holding shortstop until Correa was ready, then moving to 3B.  Would I take Ramirez over Ruiz or Moran at ages 31/32-34?  Without seeing a crystal ball, yes.  We're still at a point where we need to fill multiple holes, rather than make one splash and nothing.  But, the payroll should continue to go up, so long-term, I don't see him as a detriment.  The only questions would be what else can we do with him and what could be done differently.  This is all assuming there is any level of mutual interest.

384

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: AFL

« on: November 07, 2014, 01:31:00 pm »

Video and a slider gif of Appell's performance last night

His slider reminds me a lot of Lidge's.

385

Talk Zone / Re: T'aint this the truth!

« on: October 26, 2014, 09:45:01 pm »

And the NFL.

I submit to you Chris Collinsworth, Joe Buck on speed. Buck is awful, though.

386

Talk Zone / Re: Cardinals' Oscar Taveras

« on: October 26, 2014, 09:43:30 pm »

Sad news. Kid had a world of talent. Way too early.

387

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: AFL

« on: October 23, 2014, 03:24:39 pm »

But it's a higher caliber of player in general, so in a sense it's tougher competition than a lot of AA games. And it seems to me like a lot of the kids end up making it to the Majors the season after an AFL stint.

In general, but the pitching isn't always as strong as the hitting.  The pitchers are often guys who need to make up innings; sometimes they are Mark Appel, sometimes they are Alex Sogard.  Not that Sogard is a bad pitcher, but he's not Arizona Appel, either. 

388

Talk Zone / Re: Keuchel Gold Glove finalist

« on: October 23, 2014, 03:10:51 pm »

Who's the best hitter?

389

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: AFL

« on: October 22, 2014, 09:13:50 pm »

What do people consider the competition level of the AFL? AA? Upper A?

Thereabout.  It can fluctuate depending on the level of talent in a particular year, but it's going to be in that range.

390

Talk Zone / Re: EasTexAstro

« on: October 13, 2014, 08:42:30 pm »

Done.

391

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014

« on: October 10, 2014, 02:37:02 pm »

FIFY

Yeah, him too.  Thanks.

392

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014

« on: October 10, 2014, 02:15:32 pm »

I was going to post this in a new thread, but I don't know that we can't at least mention J.D. Reed in this conversation.  He's probably a year behind the others developmentally, but played well in 43 games at QC this season, so he could easily make a case to start '15 at Lancaster.  This from MiLB.com's organizational All-Stars:

It's not that surprising that the Cal State Fullerton product bashed in his pro debut -- the 2014 third-rounder was drafted with a solid offensive reputation. Still, his .293 average, .878 OPS and 13 homers in 73 games split between Tri-City and Quad Cities stood out.

More importantly from a development standpoint, the big-bodied Californian made a strong impression at third base, where he proved surprisingly nimble with an arm Goldstein described as, "easy plus, maybe more." There's still work to be done if Davis is going to make third base work, but Houston was encouraged by their first in-house look.

For what it's worth, Ruiz was named Honorable Mention at the position.  There's a lot of good stuff in the article; watching Brett Phillip's HR alone is worth the click. 

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20141010&content_id=97434616&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

393

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: AFL

« on: October 09, 2014, 01:29:19 pm »

BA had a first-hand report of Appel's performance in the game:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/arizona-fall-league-mark-appel-full/

394

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014

« on: October 08, 2014, 11:28:32 am »

It has to do with whether a given player met the required minimum for that league. It's all explained at the top of that BA index page I linked to above. For pitchers, 140 games played X 1/3 = 46 2/3 innings. Hader easily qualified but obviously wasn't good enough to crack the Top 20 for the Cal League.

Hader does NOT qualify for the Texas League Top 20 as he only pitched 20 innings for CC.

Ironically, the pre-season "best prospect in the game" won't be on any of their lists, since he only had 121 AB in the FSL and 3 in the Eastern League. 

395

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014

« on: October 06, 2014, 02:48:42 pm »

Yeah, I'm not sure Boras always has his clients' best interests in mind when he advises them not to sign those Longoria-type deals. I'll bet Singleton doesn't have any regrets at the moment. Whereas Dominguez and (to a lesser extent) Grossman probably have a few.

I would think that the level of talent and success plays a role in these statements.  Singleton hasn't had success, yet, and the other two are fringier, but Springer is a case where he would have been vastly underpaid.  Altuve's deal is proving to be very team-friendly and Singleton still has time to prove that his deal a bargain.  I'm not saying that the early long-term deals don't provide benefit to the players by guaranteeing life-changing money, but if Mike Trout had accepted a 7-year $15MM contract as a rookie, it would have had big implications for players entering free agency.  He did wind up sign a contract before free agency, but his deal is much closer to market value than the kinds of deals other players have signed.  So, I think there can be room for criticism at times, but ultimately, it should be the player's decision; if their representation is being honest with them, then don't blame the agent.

396

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014

« on: October 06, 2014, 11:40:06 am »

You're saying if an agent advises against it, a player might say "screw you then, I'm switching to an agent who thinks it's a good idea"?

I've read that there's sentiment among some higher-profile agents that smaller agents are more likely to do these deals to help themselves out, not necessarily because it's in the player's (or the industry's) best interests.  The flip-side could be true, as well, that there are agents who talk players out of making a deal they want, but the other side seems to be the more common theme.  I don't know who Correa's old agent was, so I don't know if this was a concern to him, or not. 

397

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014

« on: October 04, 2014, 01:40:25 pm »

Assuming Greg Genske is not a spawn of Satan himself, then Correa's decision not to sign with Bora$ probably means he's not a greedy sonovabitch.

Yeah, don't know anything about him (the agent). I always pause when a kid switches agents not long before reaching the majors, though. Doesn't mean he should catch flack, just curious as to why.

398

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status

« on: October 04, 2014, 08:26:06 am »

Yep, sounds pretty official that they aren't going to UCLA, but no one's saying anything else, either.

399

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014

« on: October 03, 2014, 02:07:47 pm »

Not sure that it means anything long-term, but Correa decided to change agents:

Jon HeymanVerified account ‏@JonHeymanCBS

carlos correa, one of the best prospects in baseball, has hired greg genske/legacy. #astros

He also talked to Boras, Excel Sports, and MVP.

400

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status

« on: October 02, 2014, 08:01:21 am »

Today's the first day of classes at UCLA, we'll see if there's any definite news on where Aiken/Nix will pitch in the Spring.

401

Talk Zone / Re: 5:30 press conference

« on: September 29, 2014, 05:51:55 pm »

He has a psychology degree from Stanford. 

Was a catcher there, as well. He and Castro should get along.

402

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status

« on: September 27, 2014, 08:06:26 am »

And  Mac Marshall just withdrew from LSU today... supposed to be going JUCO now.

So, he fell in the draft because of his strong commitment to LSU and now drops out a few weeks in? Whatever.

403

Talk Zone / Re: The Yankees' SS

« on: September 26, 2014, 02:25:22 pm »

For all the people (everyone in the media) thinking about Derek Jeter, a solid Hall of Fame infielder who got 3,000 hits playing for a single team and conducted himself with class, please watch this:

http://m.mlb.com/video/v25548145/is-biggio-worthy-of-being-inducted-into-hall-of-fame/?query=biggio

But, the rings???!!!  Anyone catch Olbermann's rant on Jeter? It probably could have stopped after 5 1/2 minutes, plus there are some obvious flaws to his logic at times, but it's hard to disagree with his premise that Jeter is in fact, overrated.  Would Jeter have been able to turn "the flip" if any other active player at the time (outside of Mo Vaughn) had been running the bases than Jeremy Giambi?  But, because he's been the game's biggest golden boy over the past two decades and, yes, was a very good player, HH may be right when he talks about Jeter going to the Hall unanimously.     

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/23/keith-olbermann-derek-jeter_n_5870860.html

404

Talk Zone / Re: Phil Nevin, manager?

« on: September 25, 2014, 02:51:36 pm »

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal  ·  Sep 24

Sources: #Astros have talked to at least five managerial candidates by phone: Ebel, Hinch, Lovullo, D. Martinez, Wakamatsu.

Ebel told MLB.com that he hasn't spoken to the Astros about the vacancy at this point, however.  "At this point" can mean different things, though, so take it for what it's worth.  Others were linking Wakamatsu yesterday and Martinez has said that he had a good experience two years ago interviewing for the same role and would be very interested.  Lawless is also in the mix, of course.   

405

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: OKC to the Dodgers?

« on: September 19, 2014, 08:19:16 pm »

I think it may be a clever motivational ploy: players will be so anxious to get out of Lancaster and Fresno that they'll bust their butts to make it happen.

Pitchers, at least.

406

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014

« on: September 14, 2014, 02:54:33 pm »

All true at any level, though. And if he wants to pitch deeper into games, he has to master his control. I think AA would be good for him. And getting off the launching pad may help with his willingness to pitch to contact.

Not disagreeing, just making an observation on why his innings may have dropped off after April.

407

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014

« on: September 14, 2014, 12:39:04 pm »

High K/High walk rates would also lead to more pitches being thrown. This would lead to a decrease in innings for any pitcher, but with the tandem system, he's even more likely to have his day cut short.

408

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Astros finish 8th in organizational winning %

« on: September 09, 2014, 12:50:29 pm »

On the other hand, they've improved the MLB record from .315 to .438 (currently).  I'll gladly take a small drop off in the minors for that kind of swing.

409

Talk Zone / Re: Porter Fired

« on: September 02, 2014, 02:29:02 pm »

I have been surprised by the silence of Reid Ryan in this case.  I figured he would be Crane's mouthpiece and he has been pretty quiet except for a bobblehead this season.

I've been thinking the same thing.  The media hasn't really seemed to try gaining his input, either.

410

Talk Zone / Re: Porter Fired

« on: September 01, 2014, 11:31:50 am »

Everett named bench coach, as well.

Bo’s passion and energy are unparalleled, and his desire to win unquestioned,” Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow said in a statement. “This decision was not made because of our current level of competitiveness in the Major Leagues. I recognize that our win-loss record is largely a product of an organizational strategy for which I am responsible. Rather, I made this decision because I believe we need a new direction in our clubhouse.

“What we will seek going forward is a consistent and united message throughout the entire organization.  It is essential that as an organization we create an atmosphere at the Major League level where our young players can come up and continue to develop and succeed.  Ultimately, I am responsible for creating that culture, and I will do everything in my power to do so—even when it means making difficult moves like the one we made today.

This pretty much sums everything up.  It wasn't a result of the club's performance, it was because of the rift.  

http://brianmctaggart.mlblogs.com/2014/09/01/porter-trembley-relieved-of-duties-by-astros/

411

Talk Zone / Re: Didyouknow?

« on: August 30, 2014, 08:28:54 pm »

Astros claim RHP Sam Deduno off waivers from the Twinz. Had a nice year as a starter last year, but this year he's been much better out of the 'pen. I'm assuming that's where the Astros want to use him.

Well, he'll have to be on the 25-man by tomorrow for him to be eligible for the playoffs.

412

Talk Zone / Re: Aiken

« on: August 28, 2014, 11:33:50 am »

Per Jon Heyman, Selig was talking about Nix and not Aiken, which makes sense since Nix was the one who filed the grievance.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24682993/astros-working-on-a-resolution-with-nix-not-aiken-it-turns-out

John Manuel wrote this the day the story broke:

When Jenson asked the commissioner if Aiken’s negotiations were allowed to continue past the July 18 deadline, the commissioner replied, “We’re working on that right now. There are a lot of things in movement there, so it would be inappropriate for me to comment. But I would say we are working toward a hopeful solution.”

Pressed to confirm whether Aiken and the Astros would be allowed to negotiate on a contract even though the July 18 signing deadline had passed, Selig replied, “I’d rather not get into any detail right now, but I want to repeat, we are working towards a solution.”

Selig also confirmed that Aiken has not filed a grievance in the case, answering a question about whether or not a grievance had been filed by saying, “Not yet. No, and hopefully there won’t be.”

This leaves a few possibilities:

1) Manuel is making this up.
2) Selig is really mixed up and is completely wrong in everything he said.
3) Selig mixed up the names, but is saying that Nix never filed a grievance.
4) A deal with Aiken is being worked on in some capacity.

Heyman says in his article that Nix did file a grievance.  Most everyone agrees that there was one filed by Nix.  So, unless #1 is true, which I have a hard time believing that Manuel would make up quotes, then we are narrowing it down to #2 or #4.  I have an easier time believing #4 than #2.  As much as I have loathed many of his decisions, I don't think he's senile.  He can't have mixed up the names and be right about a grievance. 

What others have said about a possible sign-and-trade worries me, though.  MLB said all throughout the process that the Astros were doing nothing wrong, but I don't like where this could be going.  It's hard to imagine a scenario with a sign-and-trade where the Astros (who were operating within the rules, according to MLB) won't come out worse than they are right now.  The #2 pick is a decent consolation prize; I don't see them keeping that plus get a middling return for Aiken. 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/selig-admits-aiken-case-isnt-closed/

413

Talk Zone / Re: Aiken

« on: August 25, 2014, 09:13:18 pm »

Maybe he's cautious that anything he says might come up in a complaint so he's refusing to address the whole situation right now.

He had plenty to say a month ago, though.

414

Talk Zone / Re: Aiken

« on: August 25, 2014, 08:16:28 pm »

Drellich with an article today, hitting on a few topics with Luhnow:

1) Luhnow would like to see the club hit 70 wins, which would require the club going 15-16 the rest of the way.
2) Luhnow had no comment on the AAA PDC situation
3) "Luhnow also declined comment when asked for an update on Brady Aiken, the Astros’ unsigned No. 1 overall draft pick."
4) Luhnow also declined comment when asked if the data breach investigation was still active, noting only that the club's internal systems are now secure.  

Maybe Luhnow just wasn't in a chatty mood.  But, why not kill the Aiken rumors with something like "We were unable to sign him by the July deadline, per MLB rules we are no longer able to sign him."  Maybe there is nothing there, but it would be pretty easy for him to give something more substantive than "no comment" on the situation.  

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2014/08/25/luhnow-says-team-wont-have-comment-on-leaks-investigation/#22102101=0

415

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Oklahoma City - 2014

« on: August 22, 2014, 05:11:32 pm »

Looks like this will be the last year we have an OKC thread:

The Los Angeles Dodgers will be shifting their Triple-A affiliation from Albuquerque to Oklahoma City next season, according to multiple sources.

I know they've looked at having an affiliate closer to Houston, but I don't see how that could happen in time for next season. There's been talk of Round Rock, but with Texas under contract until 2018, there are obstacles to cross before that can happen.

http://m.newsok.com/oklahoma-city-redhawks-will-be-los-angeles-dodgers-triple-a-affiliate/article/5334868?custom_click=rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

416

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014

« on: August 14, 2014, 02:10:39 pm »

Can't say I was expecting this:

Eric Smith ‏@Eric_L_Smith 2m

#JetHawks VP Brad Seymour: "We are currently in discussions with the #Astros concerning an extension."

417

Game Zone 2014 Archive / Re: Blue Jays @ Astros 8/3/14

« on: August 03, 2014, 04:13:05 pm »

Only need to go 16-34 the rest of the way to avoid 100 losses. On pace for 68-94 at the moment. Considering they went 8-17 in July and 9-19, it could be a lot worse. I think I could live with a 70-win season at this point.

418

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2015 Draft Thread

« on: August 01, 2014, 10:29:23 am »

Considering that the Astros are likely to have 2 top 5 picks (potentially as high as 1.1 and 1.2 or 1.2 and 1.3), a comp round pick, and a high 2nd round pick, they could very well have a $20M draft pool in the 2015 draft...  And that has me kinda curious... How is the 2015 draft looking as a whole?!? (Strong draft, weak draft, deep draft, etc...)?!? Other comments on the 2015 draft?

Thanks - I'll hang up and listen.

I haven't heard anything really one way or another.  It's not a weak draft and doesn't seem to have a Strasburg-level prospect (at this point), but does have some good players at the top.  Where this year's draft was noted as being very deep in LHP and HS pitching, in general, I don't know if there are any such areas next year.  I could be wrong, I just don't remember reading anything like that. 

419

Talk Zone / Re: Luhnow open to trading Keuchel, McHugh and Cosart

« on: July 31, 2014, 09:14:04 pm »

He's got scores and scores of players. Which is why it's a bad idea to enrage him. I mean, you don't need to lick his ass or bend over for him, but it's unwise to employ tactics that piss him off enough to where he says Take your five million dollars and shove it up your ass.

I'm not too worried about it. Even with Fowler, what's he going to do? Overshoot what the club should pay him in arbitration? Then, he loses his client's case and costs him money. He could sway a client away from us after the season, but he'll get over it eventually.

420

Talk Zone / Re: Luhnow open to trading Keuchel, McHugh and Cosart

« on: July 31, 2014, 09:06:07 pm »

The way I view Dominguez is this.  A team can succeed with MD, but a team isn't going to succeed because of MD.  He is still fairly young so there is still a chance he develops into a because guy.  In the field we basically have 2 of difference makers, Springer and Altuve.  The Astros need more of those. 

As for the future... who knows Moran and Marisnick seem pretty well thought of so they have have a chance to be impact guys.  Marisnick will be starting in CF tomorrow night.  Wouldn't be surprised if Moran is up for a cup of coffee at the end of the year.


What I am curious of is what the OF looks when everyone is healthy.  Who plays where when the OF is made up of Springer, Fowler and Marisnick?

We have guys who have potential to be "because" players on offense. Castro was one last season and Singleton could get there. Singleton has had a rough start average-wise, but that's never been a part of his game that scouts have questioned. Is .280 with 25 HR at 1B a "because" player? Borderline, I guess, if he can drive in 90-100.

I was wondering the same thing about the outfield. All three could play CF on a lot of teams. Springer and Marisnick both have arms that can play in RF, as well.

421

Talk Zone / Re: Luhnow open to trading Keuchel, McHugh and Cosart

« on: July 31, 2014, 08:53:37 pm »

I don't know if it's been mentioned here, but apparently Casey Close is Cosart's agent. And Fowler's.

And Moran's.

http://sportsagentblog.com/2013/06/10/2013-mlb-draft-round-1-advisorsplayers-list/

422

Talk Zone / Re: Luhnow open to trading Keuchel, McHugh and Cosart

« on: July 29, 2014, 02:08:04 pm »

You undervalue good young pitching.  Norris never put together the year Keuchel or McHugh are having.   Nor did Bud ever have the hype that Cosart has.   Lyles never had an ERA below 5.    And you are talking about pitchers that are under club control through 2018 (2019 for Cosart and McHugh).  No doubt clubs are going to bring the no track record to the table.  But the Astros aren't in any need of making a deal. 

I could sit here and nitpick things like "Keuchel has never finished a season with an ERA under 5 and had a 4.56 ERA with a .404 BA in July".  But, really I just don't think they're the type of players who will bring a good bat in return, especially one with more than a couple of years of club control.  Not without a many-for-one type of trade, at least.

If they do make a trade for a bat, I'm okay with that.  I just don't know what's out there and where they will put them.  1B/DH are set, 2B is set, CF and RF will be set once Springer and Fowler return.  I don't see them upgrading Catcher and I would be surprised if they upgraded 3B.  Shortstop is an option, though Gonzalez has been adequate.  Left field is really the main place I could see them looking to upgrade.  That would probably mean Santana is at AAA for a while longer, though they would have options after the season.  But, it's just about whether they can make a move that will make sense.   

423

Talk Zone / Re: Luhnow open to trading Keuchel, McHugh and Cosart

« on: July 29, 2014, 07:07:57 am »

I do, but Hoes was billed a mlb ready bat.  Just don't think you are going to get a mlb ready bat that will be a key player.  And just another young bat isn't needed.  Though given the years of club control they would be giving up in these pitchers you'd like to thin k they could get somebody good.  But it would have to be better than Santana level talent in my opinion and clubs just don't give that up very often. 

Yep, especially for the level of pitcher that we would be giving up. Nothing against these guys, but none have the stuff/track record of even Norris. Maybe they could make another Fowler-type deal, I don't know.

424

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: MLB Pipeline Top 100 Prospects

« on: July 28, 2014, 05:24:50 pm »

I've read a couple of places where he was being argued at #1.  Without the injury he may very well have cracked it for a few of the lists.  (sorry for the bad grammar)

No problem. Sorry for the emoticon, didn't realize that typing three ?'s would create that guy.

425

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: MLB Pipeline Top 100 Prospects

« on: July 28, 2014, 02:38:39 pm »

If Correa didn't break he many would have him #1 (or at least of ahead of Buxton)

Is this a question (how many?) or a statement (didn't break his leg,...)?

426

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: MLB Pipeline Top 100 Prospects

« on: July 28, 2014, 12:17:41 pm »

Buxton isn't graduating next year.  He's had a whole 69 at bats at high-A this year. 

Yeah, that was written in January.  At the time, there was some sentiment that he could (likely) start at AA and reach the majors this season.  Obviously, that hasn't happened with injuries keeping him out.  With Buxton out, Bryant has taken over that spot for some.  Even though he'll end up missing half the season, Correa has moved up, passing up some guys who haven't graduated. 

427

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014

« on: July 25, 2014, 03:03:55 pm »

Yeah, thrown back a bit by his comments.  Sounds a bit as though he felt like he wouldn't have to go through the minors like everyone else.  And through repeated beatings, he has realized the errors in his thinking.

It started to irk me somewhat that he would have that attitude.  But, if he's moved on from it, I'm glad that he's moved on from it.  If nothing else, it shows that he's maturing as the season moves on. 

428

Talk Zone / Re: Aiken

« on: July 25, 2014, 11:00:28 am »

And if that happens, then the Astros would lose two picks next year?

Unless some concession was made as a compromise.  But, I don't see how that could happen without opening a big can of worms.  The only way I could see that playing out would be if the two sides allowed it, but as part of broader discussions and restructuring of the rules.  But, with the CBA being locked in for a couple more years, I don't see how they could work that out.

429

Talk Zone / Re: Aiken

« on: July 25, 2014, 07:14:13 am »

Nix can't sign. The deadline to do so has passed. The union wants them to be free agents instead of going back into the draft system.

There's been talk of them trying to make Aiken a free agent, but I haven't seen anything alluding to Nix becoming one. If you have something I'd love to read it. As for Nix, there's still talk today that the union could argue that the verbal agreement was binding and that the Astros should honor that agreement.

Nix, who was healthy and passed his physical, lost out on a chance to start his career through seemingly no fault of his own.

The union could contend that Nix's agreement with the Astros, which the Chronicle was told by a person familiar with the negotiations was verbal, should be honored.

Whether, or not, the union has any grounds with that argument is irrelevant.

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/astros/article/Union-files-grievance-over-Astros-handling-of-5645825.php

430

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Lancaster - 2014

« on: July 25, 2014, 07:00:01 am »

MiLB.com has a good article up about the start.

"Some of the pitching coaches and I, we made a minor adjustment in the bullpen that I was able to carry over," Appel said. "It wasn't anything serious. I'm not saying that's the cure for this season, but it's something that I feel comfortable with. It's something that I can continue to work on. I was able to get a little feedback tonight just from the way that some of the guys from Stockton were taking swings at fastballs that, in the past, were getting hit. The way they would react to some of my offspeed stuff where, I think in the past, they were able to see it a little bit better. The feedback was pretty good."

Appel opened with three straight scoreless innings, just the second time all season he started off that way and the first time since April 10 at Lake Elsinore.

The adjustment ahead of his second victory would appear indiscernible to the average observer, Appel said, but it allows the 6-foot-5 righty an extra "6 to 8 inches in stride length" and a straighter path to the plate. Appel thinks that will help create deception and benefit his offspeed pitches as well.

Let's hope that this adjustment sticks and carries over to continued success. There are plenty of reasons for optimism (players performing well, etc) in the organization this season that have been overshadowed by a few (admittedly big) problems. A strong final month, month and a half, by Appel would go a long way toward regaining some of that hope.

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140725&content_id=86213832&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&tcid=tw_article_86213832

431

Talk Zone / Re: Aiken

« on: July 24, 2014, 08:17:25 pm »

Has anyone read/heard if Nix still wants to sign? To pull a phrase from an article referenced in this thread, there's a non-zero chance that Nix has moved on. If that's the case, what is the union trying to win? What is the outcome that they are hoping for? Someone to agree with them that the Astros were mean and ruined the dreams of the kids involved? I disagree, but then what?

432

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: GCL Astros 2014

« on: July 23, 2014, 01:20:49 pm »

Vince Velasquez made his third rehab start yesterday and should be about ready to go back to Cali.  He allowed 1 hit and 1 walk (0 runs) in 4 innings, striking out 10. 

433

Talk Zone / Re: Aiken

« on: July 22, 2014, 09:56:30 am »

or Mr. Pitt

434

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Quad Cities - 2014

« on: July 21, 2014, 10:16:44 am »

I wonder why he didn't go higher in the draft? He looks like a pretty good player to me, and fairly polished.

MLB.com had him as the 75th-best prospect, so he went exactly where they thought he should be.  They give him a 55 hit, 60 power, 65 arm, 50 field (as 1B, though), and a 30 run.  His grades actually come out a shade better than Reed (#30 on their list), who had a 60 arm, with the other grades being the same.  Reed does have the advantage of being a lefty hitter, but I think more than anything, it shows how closely-grouped many of those prospects were and how deep that tier was.

435

Talk Zone / Re: Aiken

« on: July 19, 2014, 12:14:36 pm »

Don't be so literal

No problem, just don't be so hyperbolic.

436

Talk Zone / Re: Aiken

« on: July 19, 2014, 11:01:36 am »

Juco seems like a better idea than 3 years at UCLA.  He has a great year next season at a juco and he might actually be a top 3 pick.  Do that at UCLA and he's got to maintain that for 2 more years or at least the final year before he's draft eligible.  Look what happened with Rodon.  He had a great sophomore season and was everyone's number one going in to this year.  He only had a really, really good year and he dropped.  Granted it wasn't a big drop, but Aiken can't fall more than a couple spots without costing himself money.  Add the elbow questions to that and he's going to have to be real lucky to be picked this high again.

It was Rodon's freshman season that put him on he map. He had a slow start his sophomore season, which was pushed aside at the time as being a result of not pitching that fall and being rusty. His ERA was over three that season. I would agree that he didn't have a great junior season, though and admittedly wasn't his biggest fan. I was disappointed that he didn't wow this year because I was hoping for a homerun at 1/1, like he was supposed to be.

The elbow looks like it will be a catch-22 for him. The longer he pitches well, the better it looks for its durability, if you want to prove that it will hold up. On the other hand, the longer he pitches, the argument can be made that he is that much closer to falling apart, giving a club fewer years of production from him. Of course, he may never have problems, or they may not happen for 10-15 years, but it's a gamble.

437

Talk Zone / Re: Aiken

« on: July 19, 2014, 10:47:30 am »

His best case is he plays really well and gets the same money he turned down. Worst case is he has a hell of a story to tell his co-workers at Burger King. Unbelievable choice for an 18 year old to make.

Nah. Smart kid with money and good looks, his future looks fine, even without baseball.

438

Talk Zone / Re: Aiken

« on: July 18, 2014, 07:05:19 pm »

So they offered 3 million a week or so ago, Aiken passed.  Then they waited until today to try to get them to accept 5 million?  Am I reading that correctly?  

FWIW:

@JonHeymanCBS: #astros made 3 offers friday, the 2nd w/30 mins to go, the 3rd, at $5M, w/5 mins. aiken side: no counters. he just said no

He was the first to report that they had lowered their offer, but was apparently a couple of million off. So, I don't know how accurate the timeline is. But, it sounds like they were throwing hailmarys at the end.

439

Talk Zone / Re: Aiken

« on: July 18, 2014, 04:43:59 pm »

@EvanDrellich: “We tried to engage Casey Close three times today … there was no interest” — GM Jeff Luhnow tells the Chronicle

@MarkBermanFox26: Astros GM Jeff Luhnow on team's efforts to sign Brady Aiken today: "We didn't really get any response from the other side except no."

440

Talk Zone / Re: Aiken

« on: July 15, 2014, 11:17:35 am »

Ben Badler with possibly the best quote:

Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler 5m

Remarkable, though not surprising, how people with zero information on Brady Aiken's medicals can jump to conclusions about his situation.

441

Talk Zone / Re: Aiken

« on: July 15, 2014, 11:02:58 am »

Close's comments leave plenty of room for questioning, as well.

Close said that if every team behaved like the Astros, then the entire structure of the draft would collapse.

“If every player was contingent on another player, we would have no draft, we would have no draft pool, we would have no signings,” Close said. “We’d never be able to reach agreements. They’d either all be reached at the same time, or none of them would ever be reached.”

A: We're talking about one isolated player, not an entire class.

B: In a way, players are already contingent on other players.  Teams/scouts gauge the ability to sign players for different amounts of money.  This number (or range of numbers), at least partly, affects where the player will go and whether teams can fit them into their allotted pool.  In a vacuum, if all players signed for slot money, you would not have this issue.  Player X was drafted in this spot, so they accept slot, everyone moves on.  But, with the draft pools being flexible the way that they are, it allows wiggle room for both the players and the teams.  

Using Nix, for instance, if he sees himself as worth $1.5M, but teams don't see him as being worth drafting at the pick with that value, he falls.  The Astros were able to grab him later because the structure allows them to sign players for less than slot and use the savings elsewhere.  Aiken goes underslot, Nix goes over.  The White Sox went overslot on Rodon, using all of their savings from their other picks, plus a little extra.  This has been done several times since the new structure went into place.  

Applying this logic back to the original point, if no players were willing to sign for underslot, teams couldn't go overslot without incurring penalties.  They would have to alter their boards, affecting where players ultimately go.  It's a two-way street we're looking at.  If you want to go into discussions about negotiating in good faith, that is another matter.  But, to say that the Astros, by saying that we can't sign this player yet because we were anticipating having X amount leftover after signing Player X (who has yet to sign), are attempting to destroy the system is a little careless.

442

Talk Zone / Re: Aiken

« on: July 14, 2014, 08:43:36 pm »

In other words, a good talent, but not one worth botching things with the #1 overall pick over. Unless the Astros are even worse at PR and image control than they already seem, I can't believe they'd be stupid enough to go through all this bullshit solely for the purpose of signing Mac Marshall, as the SD hack/writer wants his readers to believe.

I agree. I have a hard time thinking they're making up all of this, potentially losing out on Aiken, just to get Marshall. No slight to Marshall, but he's not worth blowing the Aiken deal.

443

Talk Zone / Re: Aiken

« on: July 14, 2014, 08:33:36 pm »

Were there any facts about the elbow or the current thinking on either end?  For all the writer knows the MRI was crystal clear and the Aiken family is holding all this up.

He's not the first to mention Aiken's elbow, so I don't think it's really a stretch. As for specifics, nothing proven nor confirmed.

444

Talk Zone / Re: Aiken

« on: July 14, 2014, 12:43:23 pm »

An article came out over the weekend from a San Diego-based paper, more than hinting that the club is reneging on their original deal and that the difference is what it will take to buy Marshall out of his LSU commitment.  

Not to go all Oliver Stone here, but the $2.9 million Houston is trying to save on Aiken is almost the exact amount needed to sign two other high school pitchers — fifth-round pick Jacob Nix and 21st-round pick Mac Marshall.

They also call into question the validity of using MRIs to examine pitchers:

Dr. James Andrews, one of the nation’s most noted orthopedic surgeons, wondered a few years ago if MRIs could be misleading.

A New York Times story from 2011 detailed a study Andrews did in which he “scanned the shoulders of 31 perfectly healthy professional baseball pitchers. The pitchers were not injured and had no pain.”

The findings revealed abnormal shoulder cartilage in 90 percent of the pitchers and abnormal rotator cuff tendons in 87 percent of them.

While those numbers are high, and I don't expect every pitcher to fit into this category, I wonder what percentage of those pitchers have had injuries since that study.  How many will in the next 2-3 years?  We're also talking about shoulders versus an elbow.  Elbows are easier to repair at this point, but is an abnormal elbow tendon more likely to result in downtime than an abnormality in the shoulder?  Those are just a couple of the questions that are not answered.

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/Jul/12/brady-aiken-mlb-draft-houston-astros/3/?#article-copy

445

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Oklahoma City - 2014

« on: July 10, 2014, 03:54:12 pm »

Obviously there is a "weeding out" process going on of making room for either better prospects or guys that they need to promote to see what they've got. Interesting that it is going on now but it's probably a good thing for the players as well as the organization.

Yep, they were bound to run into this problem eventually.  There are just too many guys who aren't bad enough to cut, but don't have enough value to keep.  They are going to start running into a real crunch with Rule 5-eligible guys, also. 

BTW, the return has been announced as a PTBNL.

446

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Oklahoma City - 2014

« on: July 10, 2014, 11:21:06 am »

Brian McTaggart ‏@brianmctaggart 40m

Astros Minor League pitcher Bobby Doran has been traded to White Sox. He's headed to Triple-A Charlotte.

No word on a return, at this point.  I can see it being another lower-level prospect, though.

447

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status

« on: July 01, 2014, 02:09:24 pm »

Fisher is now on board:

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB  · 2m ·

More on @Astros & Derek Fisher: Bonus is $1,534,100. Full pick value at 37. Comp balance pick from @Orioles in Bud Norris deal.

448

Talk Zone / Re: Aiken

« on: July 01, 2014, 12:12:55 pm »

They have to sell clicks, get talked about. Hopefully, it is just money though.

I keep hoping it's haggling over incentives, like how much of his UCLA tuition the club will cover.  The realist in me struggles to see why that would take this long, though.

449

Talk Zone / Re: Moves

« on: July 01, 2014, 07:02:29 am »

Is wates not viewed as a viable option?  Santana is still pretty young, so I'm surprised he wasn't given more time at okc to season.

I was surprised, also. Luhnow was quoted this week as saying that he saw Sanatana as a possible September call-up, but that the club wanted to see him spend more time at AAA. He also noted that his approach didn't fit what they wanted right now (high K). Wates has had a good season, only strikes out in 1/7 of his AB, has speed, and good contact skills. I think it came down to Santana already being on the 40-man. Had it been Wates still on the 40-man, he probably would have received the call.

450

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status

« on: June 27, 2014, 04:44:29 pm »

It'd be cool if Aiken signed.

I'm not too worried. Luhnow has said that he doesn't imagine Aiken pitching much this season, anyway. Judging by HS pitchers drafted by the club in higher rounds, that looks like the club's m.o. McCullers pitched 26 innings in '12 after signing and Nicely pitched in 18 1/3 and German pitched in 9 1/3 in '13. Elias said today that it could happen before the end of the home stand (Wednesday).

451

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014

« on: June 25, 2014, 02:47:49 pm »

Lancaster JetHawks ‏@JetHawks 1h

2B @tonykemp6 promoted to AA! He’ll be missed at The Hangar.

452

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status

« on: June 23, 2014, 07:08:57 pm »

Multiple sources, including the player himself, confirming that Aiken is in Houston to finalize his contract.

453

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014

« on: June 21, 2014, 10:12:50 am »

I think of Fontana as the anti-Khris Karter (and others).  Kid walks A LOT.

Unfortunately, he's struck out at just about the same rate this season: 76 in 229 AB (Fontana) vs. 78 in 216 AB (Carter). But, he has an OPS that is 96 points higher than the slugger thanks to those walks and higher hit rate. I still think his future role is the same, but pitchers are only going to get better at throwing borderline pitches for strikes. How will he adjust?

454

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Greeneville Astros 2014

« on: June 20, 2014, 08:17:04 pm »

The roster is up at milb.com.

The only difference between it and what was handed out it earlier is no Brock Dykxhoorn. We'll see if he shows up on the GCL roster (or if perhaps the earlier mentioned visa issues have delayed things for the Canadian).

He is definitely with the team. Maybe the visa issues are preventing him from playing, but saw this tweet (w/ pic) earlier.

@GSunDarrenReese: Astros' sixth-round draft pick Brock Dykxhoorn signs autographs during a @GvilleAstros rain delay http://t.co/Jb9UdCG3k3

455

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014

« on: June 20, 2014, 07:06:17 pm »

Fontana out with broken pinkie.

Cue the "Correa to Corpus" chant.

And before it gets lost in all the potential hooplah, really feel bad for Nolan who was having a very nice season.

Luhnow said earlier this week (before yesterday) that Correa would definitely reach CC this season. I don't see them moving him up if they don't think he's ready, but this gives them the opportunity to without demoting anyone. Losing Fontana doesn't help the team, though. I'm sure this will just end up as a hiccup in his career.

456

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Int'l FA Misc

« on: June 20, 2014, 02:30:16 pm »

MLB.com now has a top 30 international list, along with the team expected to sign them.  Cliff Notes version, just jump to #20 to see the Astros mentioned, as you get the sense that they just hit Ctrl + v with the phrase "The Yankees are considered the favorite to sign the teenager" before then.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/#list=int

457

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014

« on: June 17, 2014, 09:11:05 pm »

Andy Aplin placed on DL with bruised ribs[/]

Have to love the heart:

Andrew Aplin, who was scratched from the lineup yesterday, has been placed on the disabled list. Aplin bruised his ribs after crashing on top of the fence in front of the right-field bullpen Saturday night at Whataburger Field. He was trying to rob Andrew Robinson of a home run in the 9th.

458

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status

« on: June 17, 2014, 09:09:17 pm »

Another signing:

#5 RHP Jacob Nix

Kid got paid

@jimcallisMLB: 5th-rder Jacob Nix agrees w/@Astros on $1.5 mil (pick 136 value = $370,500). Calif HS RHP inconsistent as senior but also up to 96 @MLBDraft

459

Talk Zone / Re: RIP Tony Gwynn

« on: June 16, 2014, 11:43:46 am »

One of my favorite players growing up.  Sad to see him go this soon.

460

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status

« on: June 11, 2014, 11:07:22 am »

AJ Reed takes home BA's College Player of the Year award, with quotes from several SEC coaches:

He’s got a good way about him. He’s got great presence. The skill is obviously seeable, how valuable he is to Gary and those kids. It would be understated if you said anything. So I think he has to be seen as one of those guys who could be the Player of the Year in a lot of people’s eyes.”

Tim Corbin, Vanderbilt

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-player-of-the-year-kentuckys-reed-starred-at-plate-on-mound/

461

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014

« on: June 11, 2014, 07:17:27 am »

@MEliasBaseball: Every inch of it "@jluhnow: 460 feet on @PrestonTucker25 homerun according to our data! #bomb”

462

Talk Zone / Re: Questions for Mike Fast

« on: June 09, 2014, 08:20:48 pm »

How is makeup analyzed and quantified by the team? I get how a player can have bad makeup, but what makes Aiken's special and how much of a difference-maker can it be in the draft room? Also, echoing others' sentiments, it's really cool of you to answer our questions. Thanks.

463

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status

« on: June 09, 2014, 06:15:03 pm »

Marshall is saying that he won't be signing... (thanks a lot Mr. Happy...)

Marshall via Twitter (H/T Tyler Stafford @JeffBlogwell): LINK

Started at Parkview and continuing at LSU, I will be wearing #14!

Well, he wouldn't be the first kid to show up on campus and sign before setting foot in class. I guess it was more common when the signing date was later, but it's still feasible that this plays out the same way. May not, but, it may.

464

Talk Zone / Re: Abad day to be Manny Machado

« on: June 09, 2014, 09:54:55 am »

Machado goes to the top of my list as a punk.

And bottom of my list of players I want Correa to be compared to.

465

Talk Zone / Re: Trade Deadline 2014

« on: June 08, 2014, 06:57:04 pm »

I'm curious what they would do if they were even closer to, or (gasp!) at .500 near the deadline. As of right now, they'd be only a few games out of the Wild Card. Would they become buyers? Where would they upgrade? There are still holes, but how much do they adjust "the plan" to fill them? Even last year, there was the possibility, if they were doing better than expected, that they could become buyers. Would it make sense to make a marginal upgrade at certain positions? I don't know that I would make too much of an investment at SS, especially with Correa likely days away from AA. Is there anyone who will be available that will be worth upgrading at 3B? Would they dare look at someone like Smardzija to upgrade the top of the rotation and give up the talent required?

466

Talk Zone / Abad day to be Manny Machado

« on: June 08, 2014, 06:42:55 pm »

Should be missing a week or so after this stupid decision. Adjust your fantasy rosters accordingly.

http://m.mlb.com/video/v33552351/oakbal-tossed-bat-starts-altercation-in-baltimore

467

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status

« on: June 08, 2014, 08:36:32 am »

My question is do you spend your money there? Do they look as good as, for example, Lance McCullers, Jr. or Rio Ruiz?

He has lower upside, but more polish than McCullers at the same stage. Ruiz has been a good player, but he also missed most of his senior season after having a blood clot removed from his neck. Is he worth what McCullers received? Probably not. Is he as valuable as Ruiz? Possibly. But, he may not get as much, any way. For comparison's sake, McCullers received $2.35M, Ruiz $1.85M. So, if they save $1.4M on Aiken and go slot the rest of the way, they would only be able to offer $1.5M to Marshall (unless they were willing to go slightly over their pool).

The question also becomes "If they don't use the savings on those two, where do they use it?" They can't carry it over to next year's draft or the international pool, so it's use it now or lose it. You could make the argument that they could move that money around to another area in the budget, but I don't think that is their intention.

468

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status

« on: June 07, 2014, 09:14:41 pm »

A couple of notes:

17th-rounder Ben Smith, LHP out of Coastal Carolina, had TJ surgery in April.

Velazquez is somewhat raw and started the year in the pen before pitching his way into the rotation. He can be unhittable when he's on.

Dykxhoorn has agreed to a bonus, minus education package. Being a Canuck, he will need a work visa.

469

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status

« on: June 07, 2014, 07:25:32 pm »

I just can't figure out where to spend that money.

If they're going to pry Mac Marshall away LSU, they may need all of it.

470

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status

« on: June 07, 2014, 01:49:43 pm »

Astros agree to terms with Boyd and 10th-rounder Jay Gause. Gause, a 6'5" 250 RHP out of Faulkner University in Alanama, pitched in the rotation and out of the pen this season, so he should be ready for the tandem. He had a 2.87 ERA with 87 Ks and 24 walks in 58 innings this season. Both will be headed to Tri-City next week.

471

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status

« on: June 06, 2014, 05:15:32 pm »

Round 8 - Bobby Boyd CF West Virginia University

Smaller CF (5'9" 180).  Bats left, throws right. Hit .353 this season, with a .389 OBP and .423 SLG%. 18-20 in steals. Struck out 25 times in 222 AB, walking 10 times.

Round 9 - Bryan Radziewski  LHP University of Miami (FL)

First college senior picked by the club in this year's draft, or so says MLB's draft tracker. Looking at Miami's website, he had season-ending surgery after 5 starts as a sophomore in '12 and pitched in '13 as a redshirt sophomore. 5'10" 190 was a preseason 2nd-team All-American in '13 and '14 by Louisville Slugger. Was drafted by the Cardinals in '13. Went 8-2 with a 2.86 ERA this season, striking out 111 in 100 2/3 IP, walking 49.

This season, Radziewski has increased his velocity from 88 to 91-92 mph, raising his draft status after putting on ten pounds to his once 5'10/195 frame. His 77-81 mph slurve is still an above average pitch that he commands well for punch outs, while his 80-81 mph changeup is still a bit of a work in progress. Tag that along with his two-seamer, slider, and cutter, and you can see why he's excelled this season: currently fifth in the ACC in strikeouts (61 K's).

http://www.stateoftheu.com/2014/4/19/5631376/2014-mlb-draft-preview-miami-hurricanes-baseball-scouting-report-hs-prep-recruits-UM

472

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status

« on: June 05, 2014, 09:55:56 pm »

And now AJ Reed, so there's our Papi pick.

473

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status

« on: June 05, 2014, 09:50:19 pm »

Don't know anything about him. BA report says he has 70 raw power, below-average defender, power hasn't really shown up in games. What's your take?

Had a .453 OBP in the Cape, projects as plus hitter for average and power. He should be an average runner, also. He's fairly raw for a college player, but has really good upside. The MLB broadcast harped on the Virginia home park robbing powe, so it should be fun to watch him in pro ball.

474

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status

« on: June 05, 2014, 09:38:14 pm »

Derek Fisher. Nice.

475

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 Draftees and Status

« on: June 05, 2014, 06:32:49 pm »

When he's not playing baseball, he surfs.

So, he's a Gentile Ausmus?

476

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Draft Day Predictions

« on: June 05, 2014, 06:24:07 pm »

I am happy to have been wrong.

477

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Draft Day Predictions

« on: June 05, 2014, 09:00:27 am »

I don't know much about the guy, but I never got the impression he was a flamethrower.

He'll hit 96-97 MPH, but he's going to sit around 92-94 MPH.  Still a plus fastball from the left side, but his command and life help it play up.

As for my predictions, I'll go the Reuben route and list who I think they'll pick and who I would like them to pick.

Hope:

1 - Aiken (Jackson would be okay, as well)
2 - Buskauskas (Hoffman would be the ideal, but the industry appears to currently penalize pitchers who throw hard because they may be headed for TJ and reward pitchers who have already had the surgery even though they'll lose a year)

Predict:

1 - Rodon (I've mentioned it before, but I think he impressed the right people at the right time)
2 - Luke Weaver (kind of hard to predict at this point, as they could offer someone over-slot money, but I'll go with the college righty)

478

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014

« on: June 04, 2014, 11:48:06 am »

These guys may be throw-ins for such a deal but I'm thinking it would take a bigger prospect to get a ML OFer that is an upgrade over what we have. Maybe Santana plus a couple of these guys for a guy that has a couple years until his walk year?

Fowler? 

479

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread

« on: June 02, 2014, 03:08:47 pm »

Brian McTaggart ‏@brianmctaggart 46m

Jake Cosart, Jarred's brother, is among players at Astros pre-Draft workout today.

He took a little different path, but he sounds like he could borrow his brother's scouting report and no one would notice.  He throws up to 98MPH with life and has a good curveball.  Since he started his collegiate career as an outfielder, his changeup is behind his other pitches. 

http://m.mlb.com/sf/video/v32356731/draft-report-jake-cosart-college-pitcher

480

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread

« on: June 02, 2014, 01:14:43 pm »

Nothing really rumor-based, but ESPN has a decent story up on Aiken, 1/3 background, 1/3 draft history, 1/3 reason to pick him.  Also, had this line, which I found the most interesting:

He has been trained -- some might say programmed -- for this moment since his family hired his first personal trainer at the age of 12. He exists in a world where advisors -- he and Kolek are both being advised by Casey Close's Excel Sports -- keep a raptor's eye on pitch counts, to the point of walking into the dugout to tell the high school coach when it's time to go to the bullpen.

 

I wonder how normal that is, especially with the top arms. 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11016813/brady-aiken-looking-end-drought-high-school-pitchers-taken-no-1-mlb-draft

481

Talk Zone / Re: Roster Moves

« on: June 02, 2014, 12:39:51 pm »

Well, good for him and maybe for the Astros. What do they mean by "historic" in this context?

He signed the contract before he had any MLB experience.  You could make a case that several players did before changes were made to the draft, but I guess semantics makes this different.

482

Talk Zone / Re: Roster Moves

« on: June 02, 2014, 12:10:40 pm »

I was hoping this was singleton for Krauss. 

Ask and you shall receive:

Evan Drellich ‏@EvanDrellich 16m

Source: The Astros have informed Jon Singleton he will be promoted from Class AAA Oklahoma City for tomorrow's game.

And

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan 13m

Source: Astros, minor league 1B Jon Singleton agree on historic long-term deal. $10M guaranteed, up to $35M. News coming on Yahoo Sports.

Not sure who's being sent down.

483

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread

« on: June 01, 2014, 12:21:39 pm »

Just when I think Luhnow gives us a hint he takes it away.

Yep.

"I would say the 2012 draft was unique in that, the player that we thought was the best player in the draft, the industry consensus was not first, second, third," Luhnow said. "More like fifth, sixth. I don't see that happening this year. But we're going to take who we believe is the best player in the draft and then let the chips fall where they may."

Okay, so they see the best player as being one of the universally-panned top three.  But, who are the top three?  We just have to go by what the pundits say and may or may not accurately reflect what even the majority of teams see.  But, going by that, we have Aiken universally in that mix (mostly at #1), Rodon usually in that mix, and then, it gets muddy.  Is Kolek still in that mix?  Has Jackson solidified himself (usually, but not always)? One of the college arms? 

"The thought of taking a polished and now effective college player knowing that the guy can be in Houston helping out the waves of arrival that we'll be getting from Double A, Triple A and the Lancaster squad in the next two years and slot right in, that's going to be very attractive, and we're definitely going to be thinking about that, and weighing it," Luhnow said.

"But just like in any, and this doesn't just apply to baseball, any economic scenario you're in, money sooner is worth more than money later, and in a sense talent's like that, too.

Unless we're talking about Enron, right?  Anyway, we'd like to take a college player who can come up with Correa, Appel, et al, and gives us another big name to throw out there in 2016.  But...

"If we're so compelled by the high school talent that we're willing to invest the time and the patience in and absorb the risk involved, then we're not going to be afraid to do that. Our view with the whole thing is we want to look back at this pick in six, seven, eight, 10 years and be happy with the pick, versus the quick jolt just for the sake of the quick jolt."

We might decide that we like the HS player more and go with him.

My gut feeling is that they'll take Rodon, anyway.  I don't think he's the best pick, but I think that he's shown enough at the right times to the right people, that they'll see him as part of that 2015-2016 batch.  Aiken and Jackson could move fairly quickly for HS players, but, in theory, they should take longer than Rodon.  Rodon gives them a better chance in the major window that is coming up.

On a positive note, the Marlins traded their #39 pick to the Pirates today.  How does that affect us?  That pick was worth $1.457M, giving Houston the largest pool and Miami less room to get creative with their picks by spreading money around. 

484

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread

« on: May 31, 2014, 07:05:32 pm »

The best player in the draft:

The competitor in me makes it hard for me to see, maybe, a bunch of guys get picked ahead of me — guys that I know aren’t better than me, some guys out of high school that don’t really understand the game of baseball yet,” Hoffman said last week. “It’s going to be tough if I fall a little further. But everything happens for a reason, and whatever team takes the so-called risk and drafts me is going to get the best player in the draft

It's a shame that he went down right as he started to put it together. He definitely wasn't pitching like the best player in the draft for most of the season, but was "electric" in his last start, fanning 16 in 8 innings (3 hits and 1 walk). If he had turned a corner with that start, we may be having a different conversation right now.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/01/sports/baseball/a-future-barely-dimmed-by-elbow-surgery.html?smid=tw-share&_r=2

485

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread

« on: May 30, 2014, 04:56:38 pm »

I think I read that Elias knows him and his family well.

Sounds right. Can't have too much better of a connection. If nothing else, they should have as good of a read as anybody.

486

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread

« on: May 30, 2014, 01:09:18 pm »

If Hoffman and Fedde are both gone by the Astros' 2nd pick, who else might fall from top-15-talent that they might go over-slot for there?

I don't know about top-15 talents who may fall that far, but I could see Jacob Gatewood falling out of the first round.  I don't know what kind of bonus he's looking for, but he's just so raw at the plate that teams may pass.  JB Bukauskas is an interesting case.  He took classes to finish HS early, like Drew Ward did last year.  Unlike Drew, he has told teams not to draft him, instead expressing his desire to go to UNC.  He's undersized for a starter at 5'11" 180 (though still solid), but his fastball is one of the best in the class, hitting 100 and sitting in the mid-90s with a slider that flashes plus and feel for a changeup.  I mention him because he has some kind of connection with the club (can't remember who or what) and while he has asked not to be drafted, he didn't decline the mandatory drug test that would have made him ineligible to be drafted.  Wherever I saw the connection to the club, the author thought it would be worth the club's time to offer him $3M and dare him to turn it down.  This wasn't a source sharing their thinking, but it could be something to think about, if they had a feel that it could work.  

487

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread

« on: May 29, 2014, 09:55:45 am »

Interesting note about how the FO and scouting opinions might vary.  Let's hope the smarter or luckier side prevails.

There are members of the FO who definitely have seen Rodon at his best, but probably haven't watched him as this year's version of his usual self.  Luhnow did see Rodon in his last good start and has said since then that he knows who he wants, but that they haven't met with the scouts yet, implying that there will be a lot of differing opinions.  Surely, he'll see information on Rodon's other starts before the draft, but the impression that it leaves me is that Rodon is his guy.  So, I'm not surprised to see that there is a chasm at this point; I'm sure that's fairly normal, though.

488

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread

« on: May 29, 2014, 09:49:40 am »

This is the first I've heard of Gordon.

I know in baseball you almost alway draft BPA (or best deal available in this case maybe), but is Gordon the right pick with Correa's trajectory and now even Villar's value?  I guess Correa can always move to 3b like everyone is saying

I was surprised to see this quote:

The five-tool Gordon has emerged recently as likely to-five pick after being seen only a couple months ago as only a top-15 choice

Even after gaining strength this spring, he's still looked at as having below-average power.  MLB.com rated it as a 40 and added "He's made some strength gains this spring, but will need to add more muscle to hold his own against big league pitching."  He can still be a very good player without having plus, or even average, power.  But, without a standout tool (55 hit, 60 Run, Speed, Field), he probably doesn't have an All-Star ceiling.  He doesn't have major flaws and can stick at a premium position, which definitely makes him worthy of a high pick.  But, I don't know if he's the best pick, or even the best pick at a discount.

489

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014

« on: May 28, 2014, 07:06:50 pm »

That's the pint. He was NOT getting into that position.

I'd say by reaching AAA, he was clearly on the radar. They definitely saw him as a prospect at that position. His lackluster performance at OKC surely took away some of the momentum he had going into the season, though. That's not saying he was a big threat to take Dominguez's job, but he was in a good spot on the depth chart.

490

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Corpus Christi - 2014

« on: May 28, 2014, 04:31:55 pm »

Other moves:

-RHP Tyson Perez to CC from Lancaster
-RHP Jorge De Leon from CC to Oklahoma City

Big step backward for Meyer, who was getting into a position to at least have his name in the picture at 3B.  

491

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread

« on: May 27, 2014, 03:27:57 pm »

When they pick we'll know if they went BPA or top 3 or 4/position of org need.

Who is the BPA?

492

Talk Zone / Re: Help Hunter find his scooter

« on: May 27, 2014, 03:26:43 pm »

When i clicked this, I was sure it was going to be another photoshop contest.

Or a link to Highlights.

493

Talk Zone / Re: it takes a springer to make a village ..um a team

« on: May 27, 2014, 03:25:35 pm »

I thought about that too. However, the Giants probably like the notoriety and novelty of Pence, so they permit it.

There are worse things he could be doing, like trying to wash a truck.

494

Talk Zone / Re: Josh Beckett on MLB Network now

« on: May 27, 2014, 09:37:11 am »

Well, Feldman for one, who has been pretty good despite injury. But I assume it doesn't help in general.

Carriers, not players. I'm not too worried about free agents at this point.

495

Talk Zone / Re: Josh Beckett on MLB Network now

« on: May 27, 2014, 07:28:42 am »

It's pretty stupid they don't have a TV contract by now. I'm worried the ownership is so leveraged they have to make the unrealistic cable deal happen somehow.

With all the uncertainty surrounding the network, who would want to sign on at this point?

496

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Oklahoma City - 2014

« on: May 24, 2014, 12:53:29 pm »

All part of my master plan.

Fantastic work, sir.

497

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: Oklahoma City - 2014

« on: May 24, 2014, 08:11:39 am »

3-5 last night with 2 RBI and a steal. Could be a good sign, but everyone was hitting last night, with every starter except 1 having multiple hits (22 total) in a 12-10 pitchers duel.

498

Talk Zone / Re: Luhnow to Japan

« on: May 23, 2014, 08:30:47 am »

McTaggart

The seeming importance to the Astros of this is the fact that he's making this 5-day trip with the draft just 2 weeks away.

With many seasons winding down, the scouting department convening on June 1st, and the main invitational workout on June 2nd, his trip shouldn't affect too much. 

499

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread

« on: May 21, 2014, 02:11:20 pm »

I imagine there will reports linking them to almost every potential 1-1.  Leverage is their friend.

I'm sure there will be; doesn't mean they aren't at least considering it, though.  PG isn't exactly a mouthpiece, like Heyman, so I'm at least going to look into the guy and figured others may be interested, also.

500

The Bus Ride Discussion Forum / Re: 2014 draft thread

« on: May 21, 2014, 12:22:15 pm »

Behind paywall, but PG projects Aiken at 1/1 in their latest draft, which they say is one of their three safest picks in the top 10 (meaning they have a fair amount of confidence that he could go 1/1).  Another interesting note:

A completely new name has surfaced as a potential sleeper for the Astros No. 1 pick, Evansville southpaw Kyle Freeland, according to scouting sources. Freeland wasn’t even on many pre-season first round lists.

MLB.com has him as the #9 draft prospect and BA had him going #4 in their most recent mock.  Using MLB.com's grades, he compares well to Rodon, not necessarily better, but a case could be made.  Here's their report on Freeland:

Batters react to Freeland's fastball as if he's throwing harder than 90-93 mph, because he has some deception in his delivery and the pitch has heavy life, and he can reach 95-96. He throws a true slider in the low 80s and can turn it into more of a mid-80s cutter at times. He'll also display an average changeup at times, getting good sink on it.

Freeland throws from a lower arm angle and features more effort in his delivery than scouts like to see in a starter. But he should be able to work out of a rotation in pro ball because he has two swing-and-miss pitches and throws strikes.

They both throw 90-93 and can reach a little higher with good movement (Freeland may be more deceptive):  both pitches receive a 65.  Rodon's slider receives a 70, while Freeland's is still above-average at 60.  Both receive 50s on their changeup.  Freeland has better control of his pitches, receiving a 60 to Rodon's 50.  Freeland had a 1.90 ERA on the season, a 128-13 K-BB ratio, and a .92 WHIP.  He did pitch for a smaller school, but was very successful at the Cape last summer, so he has been tested.  This isn't to say that they should draft him, but he's not illogical, either, especially if they see him as a surer thing and really want a college LHP.

On an unrelated note, Ortiz has Kolek going to the June 2nd workout, but just to talk to Luhnow, not to pitch. 

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2014/05/21/tyler-kolek-invited-to-astros-pre-draft-workout/#22822101=6
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9910